India’s benchmark stock indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, opened with modest declines on Thursday morning, interrupting a seven-day winning streak as rising geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan prompted caution among investors.

The cautious start came despite underlying positive factors like continued foreign investment flows.

In the wake of diplomatic measures taken by India against Pakistan following the recent deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, investor sentiment turned slightly risk-averse at the opening bell.

The Nifty 50 index began trading at 24,277.90, down 51.05 points or 0.21 per cent from its previous close.

Similarly, the BSE Sensex opened lower at 79,982.18, registering a decline of 134.31 points or 0.17 per cent.

While market analysts acknowledge the fundamental strength of the Indian economy and recent positive foreign portfolio investment (FPI) trends, the escalating situation with Pakistan introduces a near-term uncertainty.

Ajay Bagga, a Banking and Market Expert, provided context to ANI, stating, “Global cues are positive, FPI inflows are positive, earnings in pockets are positive and the Indian market breadth has turned decidedly positive.”

However, he added a crucial caveat: “The overhang remains for the next 10 days to 15 days, the time it took in the previous two instances from the terrorist strike to the retaliatory Uri and Balakot strikes.”

Bagga also noted that while announced diplomatic measures, including those related to the Indus Water Treaty, are significant, their tangible impact would require “major infrastructure execution.”

Sectoral divergence: defensives favored

The cautious mood was reflected in sectoral performance during early trade. Indices representing PSU Banks, Media, and Auto stocks opened in negative territory.

Conversely, sectors often seen as defensive plays, such as Nifty FMCG, Nifty IT, and Nifty Pharma, started the session with gains.

This divergence suggested selective buying, possibly favoring sectors perceived as less sensitive to immediate geopolitical shocks.

Earnings season heats up

Adding another layer to the market dynamics, investors are closely watching the ongoing fourth-quarter earnings season.

A significant roster of major companies is scheduled to release their financial results today (Thursday), providing crucial insights into corporate health amid the current economic climate.

Key names reporting include Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, Nestle India, SBI Life Insurance Company, Tech Mahindra, Macrotech Developers, Adani Energy Solutions, SBI Cards & Payment Services, Persistent Systems, MphasiS, and L&T Technology Services.

Technical perspective: rally vulnerable?

From a technical standpoint, the recent sharp rally has brought the market to a potentially critical juncture.

Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities, observed, “The nifty rose for the seventh day yesterday, for the first time in a month.”

He noted that the previous day’s trading pattern formed a “hanging man” candle following Tuesday’s “doji,” patterns often suggesting potential indecision or a possible stalling of the upward trend.

Chinchalkar identified immediate support for the Nifty at “24120” and resistance near “24500,” warning that “a volatility pickup may be seen over the next two sessions” as the market digests various factors.

Asian markets show mixed picture

Meanwhile, the broader Asian market landscape presented a mixed picture on Thursday morning.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index saw strong gains, rising over 1 per cent, and Singapore’s Straits Times edged slightly higher.

However, other major indices, including those in Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong (Hang Seng down 1.51 per cent), traded lower, reflecting varied regional reactions to global and local factors.

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Asian stock markets presented a mixed picture on Thursday, suggesting investor caution quickly returned following a significant relief rally on Wall Street.

While Wall Street celebrated apparent easing in tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve’s leadership and US trade policy, uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach kept Asian sentiment fragmented.

Wall Street rebound sets uneasy tone

The trading day in Asia began against the backdrop of a powerful surge in US equities on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 climbed 1.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 419 points (1.1%), and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.5%.

This robust performance more than erased steep losses incurred earlier in the week and was fueled primarily by two key developments: President Trump stating late Tuesday that he had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and hints that US tariffs on Chinese imports might be significantly reduced, though not eliminated, as part of a potential trade deal. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to the optimism Wednesday, remarking, “There is an opportunity for a big deal here.”

Trump’s comments regarding Powell were particularly crucial.

His prior sharp criticisms and suggestions he might seek to remove the Fed chief had unnerved markets, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence – a vital element for economic stability, as the Fed must sometimes make unpopular decisions for long-term health.

Trump’s apparent reversal on this issue provided significant, albeit potentially temporary, relief.

Similarly, his indication that tariffs on China “won’t be that high” offered hope for de-escalation in the trade war, even lacking concrete details.

Persistent uncertainty clouds outlook in Asia

Despite the strong US lead, Asian markets displayed caution. Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed gains of nearly 0.9% to 35,168.80, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% to 7,966.50.

However, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5% to 2,513.17, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.3% to 22,005.16, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite saw a modest gain of 0.4% to 3,309.12.

This divergence highlighted the underlying anxiety that persists. Analysts warned against reading too much into short-term shifts driven by presidential comments.

Tan Jing Yi of Mizuho Bank characterized Trump’s policy announcements as “headline turbulence,” cautioning that global economies could face long-term damage.

“Sentiments swing from hopes of intense relief to inflicted economic gloom,” she added, capturing the market’s volatile state.
Many strategists agree that sharp market swings are likely to continue as long as US economic policy remains subject to sudden shifts.

“The market will more likely than not continue to be dictated by Trump’s latest whims regarding tariffs and trade,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Associated Press.

Despite the recent rally, the S&P 500 remains 12.5% below its record high set earlier this year, underscoring the ground yet to be recovered and the market’s fragility.

Wednesday’s US rally saw significant contributions from major technology stocks. Nvidia climbed 3.9%, recouping more of the losses sustained after warning that US restrictions on chip exports to China could impact results by $5.5 billion.

Tesla shares also revved 5.4% higher following CEO Elon Musk’s statement that he would refocus on the company after a period heavily involved in government cost-cutting efforts, which had generated backlash and weighed on the brand.

Bond market eases, currencies shift

Trump’s more conciliatory comments also had a calming effect on the US bond market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note eased slightly to 4.38% from 4.41% late Tuesday.

In currency markets, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, slipping to 142.73 yen from 143.15 yen. The euro gained ground against the dollar, trading at $1.1350 compared to $1.1322 previously.

Oil prices saw modest gains, with US crude rising to $62.52 a barrel and Brent crude reaching $66.38.

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Finnish telecommunications equipment maker Nokia faced a challenging start to the year, reporting first-quarter profits on Thursday that fell significantly short of market expectations.

Compounding the weaker-than-anticipated results, the company explicitly warned of near-term disruptions stemming from US tariff policies, projecting a tangible impact on its upcoming second-quarter earnings.

Q1 profit falls short, sales dip slightly

Nokia’s comparable operating profit for the first quarter of 2025 landed at 156 million euros (approximately $176.9 million).

This figure represented a substantial 36% miss compared to the average analyst forecast of 243.83 million euros, compiled by LSEG.

Quarterly net sales also showed a slight year-on-year decline, totalling 4.39 billion euros, down 1% and marginally below the 4.41 billion euros anticipated by analysts.

US tariff impact looms over Q2

Looking ahead, Nokia flagged specific financial headwinds expected in the second quarter directly related to the implementation of sweeping tariffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

The company estimated a negative impact on its Q2 profit ranging between 20 million and 30 million euros.

This anticipated disruption arises from concerns that businesses might hesitate or pause equipment orders due to fears of tariff-driven price increases, potentially countering recent positive trends for Nokia in the crucial North American market.

Despite facing stiff competition from Nordic rival Ericsson, Nokia had previously noted steady sales growth in North America following years of weaker performance.

Strategic US partnership extended amid challenges

Offsetting some of the near-term concerns, Nokia simultaneously announced a significant positive development in its US operations.

The company confirmed a strategic multi-year extension of its partnership with major carrier T-Mobile.

This collaboration is focused on further expanding T-Mobile’s 5G network coverage across the United States, highlighting Nokia’s continued integral role in the build-out of next-generation wireless infrastructure.

Full-year outlook reaffirmed, Infinera integration included

Despite the first-quarter profit miss and the anticipated Q2 tariff impact, Nokia management expressed confidence in its broader trajectory by reaffirming its financial outlook for the full fiscal year.

Notably, this confirmed outlook now incorporates the company’s pending acquisition of optical networking specialist Infinera, signaling that the integration plan remains on track despite the current market headwinds.

The confirmation suggests Nokia believes it can navigate the immediate challenges while pursuing its longer-term strategic growth objectives.

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European stock markets are poised for a muted and mixed opening on Thursday, signaling that the recent relief rally fueled by easing US policy concerns may be losing steam.

After significant gains earlier in the week, investor caution appears to be returning as underlying economic and trade uncertainties persist.

Early indications point towards a flat to slightly lower open across major European bourses.

According to data from IG, the UK’s FTSE 100 is expected to edge just 6 points higher to 8,404, while Germany’s DAX is seen opening flat at 21,933. France’s CAC 40 is projected to dip 2 points to 7,475, and Italy’s FTSE MIB is anticipated to start 53 points lower at 35,942.

This lackluster outlook follows strong performances on Wednesday, where European markets joined a global upswing.

That rally was largely driven by relief after US President Donald Trump seemingly backed away from threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and hinted at potential de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict.

US stocks surged significantly on Wednesday, building on Tuesday’s gains, as these immediate concerns subsided.

While S&P 500 futures showed further modest gains overnight and Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed, the initial burst of optimism appears to be giving way to a more sober assessment in Europe.

Earnings and economic data take center stage

With the immediate focus shifting slightly from Washington’s policy pronouncements, investors in Europe will turn their attention to a busy slate of corporate earnings and economic data releases on Thursday.

Key earnings reports are expected from major players including consumer goods giant Unilever, Spanish bank Banco Sabadell, French pharmaceutical firm Sanofi, Italian energy company Eni, banking group BNP Paribas, and software company Dassault Systemes.

On the data front, crucial releases include French consumer confidence figures and updated statistics on new car registrations across the European Union, providing fresh insights into consumer sentiment and industrial activity.

Diamonds lose sparkle

Highlighting sector-specific pressures, London-listed mining giant Anglo American announced a significant cutback in diamond production.

In a trading update, the company revealed it had reduced rough diamond output by 11% to 6.1 million carats during the first quarter.

Anglo American attributed this decision to tepid demand and falling prices for diamond jewelry.

“Consumer demand for diamond jewellery in the United States over the year-end holiday season was in line with expectations, however, rough diamond demand in the first quarter remained subdued,” the company stated, explaining that middlemen remained cautious about restocking inventories due to an existing surplus of polished diamonds.

While noting tentative signs of price stabilization, Anglo warned, “ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, in particular the impact of US tariffs, will likely result in continued cautious Sightholder purchases in the near term.”

The company reaffirmed its intention to eventually sell its De Beers diamond subsidiary “when market conditions allow,” amidst an 11% decline in its share price so far in 2025.

Bear market rally or sustainable recovery?

The sharp rebound seen earlier in the week has also drawn cautious commentary from market strategists.

Analysts at Wolfe Research, Rob Ginsberg and Read Harvey, noted to CNBC late Tuesday that “Bear market rallies are the most violent.”

While acknowledging the strong internal market breadth during Tuesday’s 2.5% S&P 500 gain, they warned that such rallies “make you a believer” but may not signify a true end to the underlying downturn.

Citing longer-term trends, they maintain a bear market stance and are looking for a “cluster” of technical signals, including the S&P 500 decisively breaking above resistance levels between 5500 and 5700 (the index closed Wednesday at 5,375.86), before confirming a sustainable shift.

Recession risks not fully priced in?

Adding another layer of caution, strategists at Deutsche Bank suggested that despite recent tariff-fueled recession fears, the market hasn’t fully factored in the possibility of an economic downturn.

“It’s clear that investors aren’t fully pricing a recession in just yet,” wrote strategist Henry Allen.

He pointed out that recent equity declines, credit spread widening, and oil price drops have been shallower than those seen in previous recessions.

Allen argued that markets likely see a recession as avoidable, especially “if the tariffs don’t come into force after the latest 90-day extension.”

However, this also implies “significant downside risks” for stocks should a recession indeed materialize.

As European markets prepare to open, the focus shifts back to fundamentals and regional developments after a brief, globally-driven relief rally appears to be pausing for breath.

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The secondhand retail sector, long the domain of budget-conscious and environmentally aware Gen Z shoppers, may be poised for broader adoption as tariffs threaten to increase the cost of new goods.

Rising prices on imports, particularly apparel and electronics, are prompting consumers to consider more affordable options, potentially giving a new tailwind to the thrifting ecosystem, a report by Barron’s said.

The shift could not only benefit traditional thrift stores and online resale platforms, but also offer investors new opportunities.

Several companies—ranging from online upstarts to legacy players—are positioning themselves to tap into the expected surge in secondhand demand.

Younger generations have already embraced thrift stores — both brick and mortar and online — as a go-to shopping destination.

“Older shoppers could follow suit as firsthand product prices increase, said Sender Shamiss, CEO of ReturnPro. “”The economics of it are going to sway a lot of consumers,” she said.

Online resale platforms regain attention despite rocky IPOs

Online resellers like ThredUp, The RealReal, and Poshmark were among the earliest to attempt to scale secondhand fashion into digital marketplaces.

All three debuted on public markets in the past six years amid strong interest in the so-called “circular economy.”

However, scaling up proved difficult. ThredUp now trades at a fraction of its IPO price, as does The RealReal.

Poshmark exited the public markets entirely, selling to South Korea’s Naver for under half its debut valuation.

Despite these setbacks, investors are reconsidering the sector.

The ongoing US-China trade dispute has led many to anticipate higher import costs, especially on apparel, electronics, and home goods.

Resellers, who source products locally rather than from overseas suppliers, may now enjoy a competitive advantage.

James Reinhart, CEO of ThredUp, was candid about the upside during a March earnings call.

Anything that increases the cost of new apparel is likely also to provide some modest tailwind to secondhand goods, because we don’t have exposure to bringing in products from overseas.

A ReturnPro survey of over 500 consumers found that 55.4% would be more likely to buy from resale platforms to avoid paying more for tariff-inflated goods.

If borne out in consumer behaviour, that shift could provide significant upside for resale operators.

Thrifting’s cultural rise intersects with economic headwinds

The movement toward resale has been culturally driven, especially by younger shoppers.

According to Piper Sandler’s semiannual “Taking Stock with Teens” survey, 45% of teens bought clothing secondhand this spring.

This shift is reinforced by environmental awareness, social media trends, and economic caution.

In 2024, the US secondhand apparel market grew 14% year over year to $25 billion—five times faster than the broader retail clothing market, according to a widely cited 2025 report by ThredUp.

Projections suggest the market could reach $74 billion by 2029, growing at an average annual rate of 9%.

Still, economic uncertainty could moderate this momentum.

As concerns mount over a slowdown in discretionary spending, some fear demand for even low-cost options could dip.

“It’s bad for everybody, but I would say it’s less bad for resale,” said Jeff Lindquist, partner at Boston Consulting Group.

“Secondhand is simply better positioned to weather softer consumer sentiment.”

Etsy and eBay offer less risky resale exposure

Investors exploring the resale trend have a range of options, but many of the newer, digital-first platforms remain unprofitable and volatile.

For lower-risk exposure, analysts suggest Etsy. While its core business is handmade and vintage goods, the company’s acquisition of secondhand fashion platform Depop in 2021 has paid dividends.

Depop ranked as the fifth favourite teen shopping site this spring and grew gross merchandise sales by over 30% in 2024, even as Etsy’s total GMS declined.

BTIG analyst Marvin Fong believes Etsy’s risk profile remains attractive. “The combination of healthy [free cash flow], low expectations, reasonable valuation, and a strong competitive position offers a relatively favourable risk-reward,” he wrote in a note following Etsy’s February earnings report.

Another established player benefitting from the thrifting trend is eBay.

Though it has fallen off the cultural radar somewhat, eBay remains a key resale platform—especially for electronics, car parts, and collectibles.

Shares are up 7.3% year to date, outperforming the broader S&P 500’s decline.

“We still see eBay shares as one of the relatively safer places to hide in our e-commerce coverage,” wrote Lee Horowitz, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, in an April 14 note.

Brick-and-mortar players like Savers see new growth runway

Thrifting is not just an online phenomenon. Savers Value Village, a traditional thrift-store operator, went public in 2023 and has quietly become a standout.

Unlike many of its digital peers, the company has delivered consistent profits—posting adjusted earnings per share of 58 cents for fiscal 2024.

With a footprint that spans both Canada and the US, Savers is well-positioned for long-term expansion.

William Blair analyst Dylan Carden initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating, citing competitive advantages and a favorable macro backdrop.

“We believe that weaker peers, growing acceptance of resale, and the fractured nature of the market all support Savers’ longer-term growth vision,” he wrote in an April note.

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