Global markets opened the week to a mix of political and financial headlines with Trump reigniting tariff tensions with India, US stock futures holding steady during the holiday, Alibaba rallying on cloud and AI optimism, and the Trump-linked WLFI token making a $30 billion debut in crypto trading.

A glance at the biggest stories capturing attention today.

Trump says India offered zero tariffs on American goods

US President Donald Trump again tore into India’s trade policies on Monday, calling the relationship a “totally one-sided disaster.”

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said India had now offered to drop tariffs on American goods to zero but dismissed the move as “too late” and something that “should have happened years ago.”

He also repeated one of his long-standing complaints: that India buys most of its oil and defense supplies from Russia rather than the United States, which he cast as a major obstacle in ties between the two countries.

Trump argued that while Indian exports flow easily into the US market, American businesses still run into heavy tariffs and regulatory hurdles in India.

The comments came as Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. Read the full report here.

US stock futures remain cautious

US equity markets were closed for Labor Day on Monday, but Dow Jones futures continued to trade and gave an early indication of sentiment.

Futures opened near 45,685, about 9 points higher, and stayed within a narrow band for most of the session.

The contracts moved between roughly 45,528 on the low end and 45,752 on the high, before ending close to the midpoint.

The limited range shows investors are holding positions steady while waiting for fresh economic data and earnings later in the week.

Broader global concerns remain in the background, though there was no sign of strong selling pressure during the holiday closure.

Futures activity, even with modest moves, offered traders a sense of positioning ahead of Tuesday’s full market reopening.

Alibaba rally signals tech sector strength

Alibaba shares have jumped more than 12% in recent weeks, putting the company back in the spotlight as investors bet on growth in its cloud and AI businesses.

The gains come as traders look past weak sentiment in parts of China’s economy and focus instead on Alibaba’s ability to squeeze more revenue from its technology platforms.

The stock remains sensitive to US–China trade tensions, but its scale in e-commerce and its broader mix of businesses give it room to maneuver.

Analysts are lifting earnings forecasts, and volumes in the stock have picked up accordingly.

For many investors, Alibaba’s performance is being treated as a read-through on the strength of China’s tech sector and, by extension, global digital commerce. Read the full report here.

Trump-linked token debuts at $30B

The World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token, a new crypto project tied to US President Donald Trump and his family, debuted on Monday with a paper valuation topping $30 billion.

The token opened at roughly $0.30 on major exchanges including Binance, Upbit, and Gate, with about 25% of its 100 billion supply released into circulation.

The Trump family’s stake, which is estimated at around $6 billion, is subject to lock-up conditions, limiting immediate sales.

WLFI doubles as the governance token for the World Liberty Financial DeFi platform, which also runs the USD1 stablecoin. Trading volumes were brisk on launch day, with much of the demand attributed to the Trump brand rather than fundamentals.

With liquidity tightly controlled at the outset, WLFI’s debut is being watched as a test case for how politically linked digital assets might gain traction in a crowded DeFi market.

The post Evening digest: Trump’s fresh jabs against India, Alibaba’s cloud lift, WLFI’s $30B splash appeared first on Invezz

Greece’s recovery story has become a headline cliché in the past year.

Government officials speak of a new era while analysts point to fiscal surpluses and rating upgrades. Tourism numbers keep breaking records.

But not everybody is convinced.

A closer look at the data shows that living standards are stagnant, wages have flatlined, and real economic progress is missing. So what’s the real story here?

How did Greece fall this far?

Greece’s economic problems didn’t start in 2008. They began long before. After the fall of the junta in the 1970s, successive governments relied heavily on borrowing to build roads, expand the public sector, and grow wages. 

By the time Greece joined the Eurozone in 2001, its debt had already reached 97% of GDP. And that figure would balloon in the following decade.

Unlike other indebted countries, Greece had no monetary tools left. It couldn’t devalue its currency or print money. 

When the global financial crisis hit, credit markets froze. GDP collapsed by over 25% between 2009 and 2014.

Pensions were slashed. Unemployment reached 28%. And public assets were sold off under bailout conditions.

Since then, the country has leaned heavily on tourism and real estate. But these are not engines of productivity. They have not lifted wages or created sustainable growth. 

They’ve only hidden the reality that Greece was a country with no clear economic model, no industrial base, and no plan.

Are incomes really growing?

The most common political narrative is that incomes are rising. Technically, that’s true, but only in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, the picture changes.

Recent research by Mantes and Marinakis, using data from ELSTAT and Eurostat, sought to uncover the real situation.

According to their research, to be richer than 50 percent of Greeks, you need €1,533 per month. The top 10 percent starts at just €3,100.

These numbers are not competitive by European standards. In France or Germany, that income places you near the bottom.

Under SYRIZA (2015–2019), low-income Greeks saw real income gains, largely due to benefits.

Under New Democracy (2019–2023), gains were concentrated at the top. The poorest 80 percent saw real income growth of less than 1 percent per year. 

Meanwhile, the top 10 percent gained the most, especially after 2022, when inflation hit hard and the government failed to cushion the blow.

Even though ND had €8 billion more in fiscal resources per year than SYRIZA, most of it went to debt servicing, defense, and one-off energy subsidies. None of it made a structural difference in real wages.

Is the housing crisis just a price problem?

No. It’s mostly an income problem.

Housing prices in Greece have climbed sharply since 2015. In Athens, the average price per square meter has jumped 88%. But this rise alone does not explain the housing crisis.

Countries like Poland, Hungary, and Romania, where home prices also rose sharply, have seen the burden on households fall. 

In Greece, 90% of low-income renters face housing cost stress, according to Mante & Marinakis. That figure is under 30% in the poorest 10 EU countries.

Even middle-class Greeks are affected. Between 2015 and 2023, housing hardship among median-income households dropped across Europe. In Greece, it got stuck at 15%. 

This is not due to a lack of housing supply. It’s because incomes have simply not moved.

The government’s handling of Airbnb, the Golden Visa scheme, and bank-held property stock made things worse. 

Rent inflation remains out of control while other countries have stabilized. The state misread the problem, and now the housing system is broken.

What happened to real investment?

Greece is still not investing in its future. Most of its capital continues to flow into real estate and public contracts. Industrial investment, the kind that builds capacity and exports, is still flat.

In countries like Slovenia and the Czech Republic, manufacturing investment has lifted productivity and wages. These economies now outperform Greece in both purchasing power and economic complexity. 

By contrast, Greece remains stuck at the bottom of the EU in value-added production.

Harvard’s Atlas of Economic Complexity confirms it. Greece produces fewer high-complexity goods than any other EU member. 

Even basic processing such as turning cotton into fabric for example, is outsourced. Greece exports raw materials and re-imports finished products at five times the cost.

The root problem is direction and not just capital. Capital flows to housing and defense. Not to technology, logistics, or other competitive industries.

Why is poverty rising in a so-called recovery?

Poverty in Greece is not going away. It’s actually getting worse.

Material and social deprivation remains well above EU averages. Since 2023, it has even increased. 

Food prices are high, and the “household basket” scheme had no effect. Energy prices rose earlier and stayed high longer than anywhere else in Europe. Even when subsidies kicked in, the damage was done.

Unmet medical needs have returned to crisis levels. In 2024, 12% of Greeks reported not receiving needed care, five times the EU average. 

Crime is also rising again, after falling briefly a decade ago.

These statistics are indicating a system that is not delivering for its people.

Is Greece’s economy moving backwards?

Greece appears to be diverging from Europe. Most European economies have already passed Greece in purchasing power, income, and industrial strength.

Greece is falling behind in every core area that defines long-term prosperity: productivity, income growth, investment direction, public services, and human capital. 

The “success story” narrative survives only because the bar is set low and the metrics are selectively framed.

And this is a crisis of choices. Greece had more money, more time, and more support than almost any country in modern history. But it failed to turn those assets into structural reform.

Unless that changes, Greece will not only stay behind, but it might become irrelevant in the European economic landscape. 

Bailouts are a thing of the past and now the beautiful mediterranean country is left alone to salvage its economy.

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Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned gas company, has agreed to a slight increase in gas supplies to China through an existing pipeline. 

Additionally, a memorandum was signed for the construction of the large-scale Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, according to state news agencies. 

However, the prices for these supplies to China are lower than those charged to European customers, the reports claimed.

Russia is looking to strengthen its energy collaboration with China, its primary trading partner. This initiative follows a significant loss of market share in Europe due to sanctions imposed after the 2022 Ukraine conflict.

Last month, Reuters reported that China was looking to purchase additional Russian gas via an existing pipeline. This comes after negotiations between the two nations to construct a new pipeline failed to advance significantly.

On Tuesday, Alexei Miller, CEO of Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom, announced agreements to boost natural gas supplies to China.

The existing Power of Siberia pipeline, which connects Eastern Siberia to China, will see its annual capacity increase from 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) to 44 bcm.

New deal

Additionally, Russia and China reached a deal to build the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. This new pipeline will transport 50 bcm of gas per year from the Bovanenkovo and Kharasavey gas fields in Yamal, through Mongolia, to China.

Miller said, Russian news agencies reported:

Today, a legally binding memorandum was signed on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and the Soyuz Vostok transit gas pipeline through Mongolia.

Miller further stated that gas supplies to China are priced lower than those charged to European buyers by Russia. This is attributed to the extensive distances and challenging terrain required for pipeline construction. 

He also noted that Power of Siberia 2 would be the world’s largest and most capital-intensive gas project. The builders of the pipeline and the final investment figures remain undisclosed.

Following a meeting in Beijing between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, Miller announced that gas prices for deliveries via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline would be determined through separate negotiations, as reported by Russian news agencies.

Additionally, Xinhua, China’s state news agency, reported on Tuesday that the two heads of state engaged in in-depth discussions and signed more than 20 bilateral cooperation agreements, including those in the energy sector.

China purchases

Since Western nations imposed severe sanctions on Russia due to the war in Ukraine, the “no limits” alliance between China, the world’s largest energy consumer, and Russia, the world’s largest producer of natural resources, has become more robust.

According to the Kremlin, China has become Russia’s largest trading partner. China is also the primary buyer of Russian crude oil and gas, the second-largest purchaser of Russian coal, and the third-largest buyer of Russian LNG.

In late 2019, Gazprom initiated natural gas deliveries to China via the 3,000 km (1,865 mile) Power of Siberia pipeline. This supply is part of a 30-year agreement valued at $400 billion.

Exports were approximately 31 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024, according to a Reuters report. This year, supplies are projected to reach their intended capacity of 38 bcm.

By approximately 2026-2027, China is set to purchase up to 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually from Russia’s Sakhalin Island. This agreement, facilitated by a pipeline, was established in February 2022.

An agreement has been reached to increase gas supplies via the Far Eastern route from 10 bcm to 12 bcm, according to Miller.

Russia’s gas exports to China remain significantly lower than the record 177 bcm it supplied to Europe annually between 2018 and 2019.

Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy since 2021. Russian gas now constitutes only 18% of European imports, a sharp decline from 45%, and Russian oil imports have plummeted from approximately 30% to just 3%. 

The European Union aims to completely eliminate Russian energy imports by 2027.

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India’s banking sector is facing increasing strain from mounting exposure to state government bonds.

Some of the country’s biggest lenders have informed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that their investment portfolios are nearing internal limits for state debt, raising questions about future funding access for state governments.

The development comes at a time when states have borrowed only a fraction of their planned amount for the current financial year, and investors are showing weaker appetite for such securities.

The warnings highlight the delicate balance between state financing needs and banks’ ability to absorb more debt.

Banks signal pressure on state bond market

According to people familiar with the matter, several Indian banks have recently approached the RBI, warning that the share of state bonds in their holdings has risen sharply and is now close to internal caps.

While there is no regulatory ceiling on how much state debt banks can purchase, lenders use internal prudential limits to manage risk.

For state-run banks, this threshold typically falls between 45–55% of their total investments, while private banks usually keep exposure within 15–20%.

The concerns raised underline banks’ crucial role in India’s state bond market, where they remain the primary buyers.

A slowdown in purchases could put significant pressure on state governments, particularly as they have so far completed just 26% of their estimated borrowing for the current fiscal year.

Auctions show weak demand for state debt

The growing caution among banks has already reflected in recent state bond auctions. Last week, some issuances struggled to attract sufficient bids, highlighting waning demand.

States managed to raise 288.9 billion rupees ($3.3 billion), falling short of the 341.5 billion rupees target. The shortfall underscores the challenge states may face in completing their borrowing programmes if banks reduce their participation.

The RBI has limited scope to intervene in easing these limits, since such thresholds are determined by individual bank boards rather than regulators.

The central bank has also not publicly commented on the matter, despite reports that lenders have sought its assistance to prevent a broader bond selloff.

Impact on government bonds and yields

Weak sentiment in the state bond market has spilled over to central government securities. In August, the yield on India’s benchmark 10-year government bond rose by 19 basis points, marking its sharpest monthly increase since September 2022.

The selloff was partly triggered by concerns that the federal government may step up borrowing to cover revenue shortfalls following recent consumption tax cuts.

With both central and state governments competing for funds, the risk of higher borrowing costs looms larger.

Any prolonged decline in demand for state debt could make it harder for local administrations to access capital markets, potentially delaying planned projects and infrastructure spending.

Future risks for state borrowing

The strain on bank investment portfolios highlights a broader concern about the sustainability of India’s borrowing patterns.

States still need to raise the majority of their targeted funds this fiscal year, but bank demand is weakening at a critical juncture.

If alternative investors do not step in, capital access could tighten further, complicating fiscal management at the state level.

At the same time, fears of increased central government borrowing are adding to the pressure on yields, potentially making it more expensive for both states and the federal government to borrow.

For India’s financial system, the interaction between bank prudential limits and government borrowing needs is emerging as a key challenge in maintaining stability in debt markets.

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Tuesday saw both the Japanese yen and sterling fall, reflecting increased investor concern regarding government finances.

This enabled the dollar to recover some ground after five days of decline, Reuters said in a report.

Mounting concerns in the global financial landscape led to renewed pressure on bond markets, particularly evident in the United Kingdom, where the cost of borrowing for 30-year government bonds surged to levels not seen since 1998.

This significant increase in long-term borrowing costs reflected a growing lack of confidence among investors regarding the UK’s economic outlook and fiscal stability.

Fiscal concerns and gold’s rise

The ripple effect of this bond market turmoil quickly spread to currency markets, causing volatility and contributing to a broader sense of unease. 

As investors sought safer havens amidst the uncertainty, the price of gold, a traditional store of value, ascended to fresh record highs, underscoring its role as a key indicator of investor sentiment during periods of financial stress. 

Rising borrowing costs, currency market fluctuations, and surging gold prices painted a picture of a global economy grappling with various headwinds and a cautious, risk-averse investment environment.

The dollar strengthened by 1% to 148.64 yen, while sterling dropped to $1.1396, a 1.1% decrease marking its lowest point since August 22.

Meanwhile, the euro strengthened against both the pound and the yen, rising by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

Sterling faced continued downward pressure, primarily due to persistent anxieties surrounding the United Kingdom’s fiscal health. 

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, was quoted in the Reuters report:

Sterling’s underperformance is reflecting the growing concerns over the fiscal situation as we move closer to the budget and it becomes a bigger focus for market participants.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is anticipated to increase taxes in her upcoming autumn budget.

This move is intended to align with her fiscal objectives, though it may complicate efforts to accelerate the UK economy.

Yen’s decline

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen also experienced a decline, influenced by a confluence of factors.

Dovish-leaning statements from a high-ranking Bank of Japan official signalled a potentially more accommodative monetary policy stance, which typically weakens a currency. 

Adding to the yen’s woes was the unexpected resignation of a pivotal official within the ruling party.

This political instability introduced an element of uncertainty into the market, prompting investors to divest from the yen as a safe-haven asset.

Political uncertainty will probably continue to weigh on the Japanese yen. 

According to Hardman, speculators will be emboldened to resume building short yen positions due to the absence of a hawkish policy signal from Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino on Tuesday.

Dollar gains as US data looms

The dollar gained strength as the US Treasury yields rose. Investors are now focusing on the upcoming US labour market data, which is expected to provide insights into the future direction of benchmark interest rates.

The dollar strengthened, rising 0.7% to 98.3 against a basket of major currencies.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rate expectations, increased by 2 basis points to approximately 3.6474%.

This follows last week’s dip, which saw it reach its lowest point since May.

US markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Labour Day holiday.

Financial markets are currently anticipating a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.

However, this expectation could be challenged by upcoming US economic data.

This week’s economic data releases include the ISM manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indices, along with the non-farm payrolls report.

Jane Foley, Rabobank’s head of FX strategy, noted that while the data would likely solidify expectations for a Fed rate cut, it probably wouldn’t cause a significant, lasting decline in the dollar beyond an immediate, knee-jerk response.

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