Brazil’s central bank leadership on Monday reaffirmed the need for a cautious, data-driven approach to monetary policy, despite stubborn inflation and rising economic uncertainty.

Deputy Governor Gabriel Galipolo, speaking at a J. Safra event in São Paulo, stressed that building policymakers’ confidence in inflation’s return to the official target was crucial.

“It is essential to gather sufficient and diverse data to build this level of confidence,” Galipolo said, emphasizing that the central bank remains focused on a holistic view of the economy rather than reacting to isolated data points.

Since beginning its tightening cycle last September, Brazil’s central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate by 375 basis points to 14.25%, according to Reuters. However, inflation remains well above the 3% target, reinforcing the need for continued vigilance.

Galipolo noted early signs of economic cooling but described them as “very incipient,” suggesting monetary policy effects have yet to fully materialize. Despite aggressive rate hikes, inflation expectations remain unanchored, and current inflationary pressures are still too high.

He warned that monetary policy requires patience, as its impacts are delayed. “The process of disinflation requires patience,” Galipolo said, adding that the central bank would wait for clearer evidence of progress before adjusting its stance.

Future rate hikes to be smaller

Following the March policy meeting, central bank officials signaled the likelihood of another rate hike, though smaller than the previous three consecutive 100-basis-point increases.

Galipolo’s remarks reaffirmed that the bank’s forward guidance from March “stood well in the last 40 days,” suggesting no rush to change course even as economic conditions evolve.

This consistency signals the central bank’s commitment to transparency and credibility amid global financial turbulence.

Galipolo pointed to rising local and international risks, emphasizing the need for heightened caution. He flagged three main concerns: entrenched inflation dynamics, persistent unanchored inflation expectations, and the long lag between policy action and real economic effects.

Balancing growth and inflation

Brazil’s central bank now faces a delicate balancing act — containing inflation without unduly restricting a domestic economy that is beginning to show signs of strain.

Galipolo suggested that while more tightening may still be necessary, it will proceed with greater sensitivity to fresh economic data and evolving conditions.

The cautious, data-driven approach aims to ensure that Brazil’s monetary policy remains flexible, credible, and effective in maintaining price stability while protecting growth prospects.

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The way Americans pay for everyday necessities appears to be shifting, with a growing number turning to installment plans even for basic purchases like groceries.

This trend, highlighted in a recent survey, offers a stark glimpse into the mounting economic pressures facing consumers and the evolving role of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services.

Data released by the lending marketplace Lending Tree reveals a significant jump in the use of BNPL options for grocery shopping.

According to their survey of 2,000 American adults conducted in early April, a full quarter (25%) of shoppers reported using BNPL services for groceries.

This marks a substantial increase from just 14% who reported doing so a year prior.

While offering flexibility, the trend also comes with potential downsides.

The same survey found that 41% of BNPL users admitted to having paid back a loan late over the past year, although the majority settled their debt within a week.

Notably, the data indicated that men, younger consumers, and those with higher incomes were statistically more likely to have made late payments.

Economic anxiety fuels BNPL adoption

This rise in financing essential goods coincides with growing unease about the overall health of the economy.

Persistent uncertainty surrounding potential tariff impacts and interest rate directions has fueled recession fears.

Consumer sentiment reflects this anxiety, weakening considerably in recent readings – the index dropped to 52.2 last week from 57 the month before.

Furthermore, a poll by The Associated Press–NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found roughly half of Americans are “extremely” or “very” concerned about a potential recession hitting in the coming months.

“It’s pretty clear that as people struggle with inflation and other kinds of economic uncertainty, people are looking to things like BNPL loans to help them extend their budget,” Matt Schulz, Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, explained to Fortune.

The allure and risk of frictionless borrowing

BNPL services, which allow consumers to split purchases into smaller, typically interest-free installments, have gained traction partly because they offer an alternative to traditional credit cards and the associated interest charges.

For many, this presents a seemingly lower-risk way to manage expenses.

However, the ease and near-frictionless nature of accessing BNPL credit can also encourage overspending and lead consumers into accumulating debt across multiple platforms.

Critics also point to the potential for significant hidden late fees if installments are missed, turning a seemingly free service into a costly one.

From designer goods to dinner tables

Initially, BNPL services gained popularity among consumers financing larger, often discretionary purchases – think electronics, appliances, or luxury fashion.

The growing prevalence of BNPL for groceries signals a potentially significant shift in consumer behavior and financial priorities.

“When buy-now, pay-later started, it was typically about designer handbags and appliances and things like that,” Schulz observed.

But now people are looking at it for things like groceries and food delivery.

This expansion into everyday essentials is evident in recent partnerships, such as DoorDash collaborating with Klarna last month to allow customers to delay or split payments on food orders.

Yet, BNPL remains popular for big-ticket items too; Billboard noted that 60% of general admission ticket holders for the Coachella music festival utilized a payment plan, breaking down the $599 cost into smaller chunks starting as low as $49.99 upfront.

A ‘gambling economy’ or perceived safety net?

The increasing ubiquity of BNPL, especially among younger demographics, might suggest a growing comfort with, or perhaps desensitization to, financial risk.

Gen Z economic commentator Kyla Scanlon recently remarked on social media, “We have a gambling economy… We have memecoin, sports betting… and we can do it completely frictionless.”

Conversely, consumers typically become more risk-averse during periods of economic uncertainty.

The rising use of BNPL for essentials could indicate that many consumers perceive these services as a less risky option than traditional credit, despite the fact that BNPL usage generally doesn’t help build a credit history, which can be crucial for long-term financial health.

Given the current economic climate, Schulz predicts the popularity of BNPL for all types of purchases, including essentials, is unlikely to wane.

“I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that this is going to do anything but increase,” he stated.

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Gold prices are currently stuck in a range around $3,300 per ounce as the market awaited impetus for the next move. 

After rising to more than $3,360 an ounce on Monday, prices have again slipped back near the $3,300 per ounce in today’s session. 

At the time of writing, the most-active contract on COMEX was 0.7% down at $3,323.87 an ounce. 

“Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of the $3,265-3,260 pivotal support and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday,” Haresh Menghani, editor at FXstreet, said in a report. 

Softening trade tensions

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on Monday that several of the United States’ key trading partners have presented “very good” proposals aimed at circumventing the imposition of US tariffs. 

Bessent specifically highlighted the positive progress in these discussions, suggesting that India is likely to be among the first nations to successfully finalise an agreement. 

This development signals a potential easing of trade tensions on multiple fronts.

Furthermore, Bessent commented on China’s recent decision to exempt specific US goods from its previously implemented retaliatory tariffs. 

He interpreted this action as a demonstration of China’s intent and readiness to de-escalate the ongoing trade disputes between the two economic powerhouses. 

Such reciprocal actions are often seen as crucial steps towards reaching more comprehensive trade resolutions.

“Market sees trade tensions de-escalating and is less concerned about the Fed independence, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets for now,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo was quoted in a Kitco report.

With the Fed still expected to cut interest rates later this year, we still look for gold to retest the $3,500/oz mark.

Auto tariffs

In addition to these developments, Bessent also revealed that US President Donald Trump’s administration is planning to mitigate the potential adverse effects of its automotive tariffs. 

The proposed strategy involves reducing some of the duties currently levied on foreign-made components that are utilized in the manufacturing of vehicles within the United States. 

This move could offer relief to both domestic car manufacturers and international suppliers, potentially preventing significant disruptions in the automotive sector’s supply chain and price structures. 

The administration’s approach appears to be multifaceted, addressing tariff concerns with various trading partners and seeking to minimize negative impacts on domestic industries.

Support and resistance for gold

However, economists have suggested that Trump’s policies have affected business sentiments around the world negatively. 

Trade tensions and higher tariffs could also lead to a rise in inflation and a recession. In such a scenario, gold would benefit further. 

Bullish rallies are likely to continue in the gold market, according to Geojit Investments. 

A break below the $3,300-$3,290 range, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward move from the mid-$2,900s or the monthly low, could see sustained support around the $3,265-$3,260 horizontal level in gold, according to FXstreet. 

“A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the all-time peak touched last week,’ Menghani said. 

On the flip side, the $3,348-3,353 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle.

Following closely is the $3,366-3,368 supply zone; a decisive break above this level should pave the way for gold to recover to $3,400 an ounce, according to Menghani.

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Canada’s election had little to do with foreign policy initially. 

But when Canadians went to the polls earlier this week, it was the actions of the US President that decided the future of their country, for the most part at least.

What began as a referendum on rising living costs and political fatigue became a vote for sovereignty itself. 

Now, with Mark Carney leading the Liberal Party to a victory, Canada’s economy finds itself in a critical position.

The new Prime Minister has many issues to address, but most importantly, the people of Canada want to feel assured that their leader is the right one to lead them through the current uncertainty and chaos.

Why Trump’s trade war turned the election upside down

Until early 2025, the Canadian Liberals looked finished.

Inflation was rising, housing affordability was collapsing, and Justin Trudeau’s government appeared exhausted after nearly a decade in power.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre led the polls comfortably.

But the situation changed rapidly, when President Trump escalated his threats against Canada. New tariffs were announced on Canadian autos, steel, and aluminum. 

Trump even revived talk about turning Canada into the 51st state.

The combination of economic pain and national insult triggered a wave of nationalism across Canada, and this time, not in favor of the conservative party.

Mark Carney used Trump’s provocations to reframe the election.

He warned that Trump wanted to break Canada economically to force political control. 

His message shifted the public debate from domestic dissatisfaction to an existential crisis. Poilievre on the other hand focused mainly on cost-of-living issues and failed to adapt to the new reality.

In the final weeks, the campaign became less about Trudeau’s legacy or Poilievre’s promises and more about resisting foreign pressure. 

A record 7.3 million Canadians voted early, many motivated by anger at Trump’s rhetoric.

The Liberals rode this backlash to victory, leaving the Conservatives with another frustrating defeat despite gaining more seats and votes than in previous elections.

Mark Carney’s rise and what it means for Canada’s economy

Mark Carney’s political career barely existed before this year.

A former central banker, he had never held elected office before becoming prime minister. 

Yet he was uniquely positioned to lead at a time when Canadians craved competence over charisma.

Carney’s background at the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and Goldman Sachs gave him instant credibility on economic issues. 

He portrayed himself not as a career politician but as a defender of Canada’s financial independence. In a chaotic global environment, his technocratic image resonated deeply with voters.

Carney also moved quickly to separate himself from unpopular Trudeau-era policies.

He scrapped a proposed capital gains tax increase, lifted the consumer carbon tax, and promised a focus on productivity and energy exports. 

His campaign was less about new promises and more about providing the sense that he could hold the country together under pressure.

And it worked. Carney’s ability to turn a technocrat’s CV into a nationalist campaign set a new model for Canadian leadership.

It also indicated that the country’s next phase would not be business as usual. It would be one of bigger adjustments.

How Canada’s economy must change

Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States.

Under normal circumstances, that level of economic integration would be a strength. But under a hostile US administration, it is a dangerous vulnerability.

In his victory speech, Carney has already acknowledged that the economic relationship Canada relied on for decades is over, saying:

“We are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons. […] President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never happen.”

Negotiations on a new economic and security agreement with Washington are expected to begin immediately, but expectations are low. Trump’s tariff policies are unlikely to change for now.

Instead, Carney has outlined a strategy to build resilience.

His government plans to invest C$5 billion into a trade diversification fund to develop new export markets. Europe and Commonwealth countries are the most likely targets.

There is also a push to rebuild Canadian industrial capacity, particularly in auto manufacturing and critical minerals.

Carney’s vision includes an “all-in-Canada” model for vehicle production, using domestic steel, aluminum, and parts. 

Although details are still vague, the goal is clear: reduce reliance on US supply chains as fast as possible.

Canada’s natural resource sector, particularly in Ontario and Alberta, will become central to both economic security and geopolitical leverage.

The Liberals are also promising a streamlined approval process for key energy and mining projects.

Carney wants Canada to become a clean and conventional energy superpower, exporting not only oil and gas but also the raw materials needed for electric vehicles and aerospace manufacturing.

What political risks could derail this plan

Winning the election was only the first step. Implementing the plan will be much harder, especially if the Liberals do not secure a majority in Parliament.

If forced to govern with a minority, Carney will need cooperation from smaller parties.

The New Democrats have collapsed, securing just 5% of the national vote, and their leader Jagmeet Singh has stepped down.

The Bloc Québécois maintained some strength but remains a separatist force focused on Quebec’s interests.

Meanwhile, Western provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan are already bristling under another Liberal term.

There is talk of secession referendums.

These provinces control much of Canada’s energy and critical minerals, making their discontent more dangerous than it would have been in previous decades.

Carney must balance his green transition promises with genuine outreach to resource-rich provinces. 

Some insiders suggest he might cancel Trudeau’s oil and gas emissions cap to ease tensions.

Others advocate appointing conservative figures to diplomatic roles to project national unity.

Failure to manage this internal division could fracture Canada’s ability to present a unified front in trade and security negotiations. That would weaken everything Carney is trying to achieve.

Will Canada rethink capitalism itself?

There is also a deeper economic conversation beginning under the surface.

The experience of the trade war and the risks of globalization have renewed interest in employee-owned businesses and cooperative models.

New federal legislation passed last year introduced Employee Ownership Trusts, making it easier for firms to transfer ownership to workers. 

Advocates argue that democratic firms are more resilient during economic shocks and less likely to move jobs offshore.

Some economists believe that Canada could protect itself from future external pressures by encouraging a broader shift to worker ownership models.

It would not just be about economic nationalism but about embedding control of assets directly into Canadian communities.

Although this idea remains peripheral for now, it fits with the new era of strategic thinking that the Carney government seems ready to embrace.

Overall, Canada’s economy is entering a new era as the time of easy assumptions about US friendship is over. 

Canada’s path now must be built on diversification, resilience, and a reassertion of sovereignty at every level of policy.

The work will not be easy. It will not be quick. But for the first time in decades, Canada is being forced to think not just about prosperity, but about survival.

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BP posted weaker-than-expected earnings for the first quarter on Tuesday, as lower crude prices and a recent pivot in corporate strategy weighed on performance.

The British oil major reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $1.38 billion for the January-to-March period, falling short of analyst expectations of $1.6 billion, based on a consensus compiled by LSEG.

The figure was down sharply from the $2.7 billion reported a year earlier.

The result comes at a time of heightened scrutiny of BP’s direction and execution, with activist shareholders questioning its mixed record in balancing traditional oil and gas operations with a broader push into renewables.

The company’s Q1 performance fell roughly 10% short of forecasts, reflecting both industry headwinds and internal pressures.

BP share price fell by 3.8% following the announcement of the results.

Dividends hold, but buybacks slashed

While BP maintained its dividend at 8 cents per ordinary share, it sharply reduced its share buyback programme to $750 million, down from $1.75 billion in the prior quarter.

The company cited continued market uncertainty and weaker oil prices for the decision.

Net debt rose to $26.97 billion at the end of March, up from $22.99 billion three months earlier.

BP had warned investors of lower upstream production and rising debt in the first quarter, with the numbers now confirming those expectations.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said the results reflect soft earnings in BP’s gas and low-carbon division, while noting that cost control in other areas helped partially offset the miss.

Giulia Chierchia-architect of renewables pivot exits following pressure from Elliott

As part of its broader strategic overhaul, BP also announced the upcoming departure of Giulia Chierchia, the executive vice-president of strategy and sustainability.

She will leave her post on June 1, with the role itself being abolished.

Chierchia was a central figure in BP’s shift toward low-carbon energy investments during the past few years, a direction that drew both praise and criticism.

Her exit follows growing pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which has called for changes in BP’s leadership and greater accountability over its strategic missteps.

BP said her responsibilities would be folded into other business areas to “enable quicker decision-making and clearer accountabilities.”

Fall in upstream production to limit boost to earnings in 2025: analysts

BP is making strong progress in its oil and gas division but it will take time for new production to boost earnings, Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, wrote.

BP has three new start-ups and six discoveries in the pipeline but upstream production is still set to fall this year, he added.

Nathan noted that BP’s downstream division, which includes refining and marketing, is performing more strongly.

However, weak oil prices and rising debt levels mean the company must work harder to meet investor expectations.

Nathan added that BP’s target for asset disposals—now set at between $3 billion and $4 billion—may not be enough to significantly dent its $27 billion net debt.

He cautioned that more decisive cost-cutting measures could be on the horizon.

“The company is making impressive progress, but it’s a slow process and the difficult macroeconomic backdrop makes it challenging,” he added.

Balancing legacy energy with a changing market

The first-quarter results underscore BP’s struggle to balance its traditional oil operations with the demands of an energy transition.

In February, the company made a decisive shift back toward hydrocarbons, pledging to cut renewable spending in favour of increasing annual investments in oil and gas.

Still, CEO Bernard Looney faces pressure from both investors and the broader market to demonstrate that BP can maintain shareholder returns while managing its debt and navigating a volatile energy landscape.

The company will next provide financial guidance when it reports second-quarter results later this year.

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