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Wheels Up Experience (UP) stock price crashed to a record low of $1 on Monday as investors waited for its quarterly financial results. The UP share price has crashed by 35% this year, lagging behind other companies in Wall Street. This drop has brought its market cap to about $746 million. So, will the UP stock crash after forming a descending triangle ahead of earnings?

Wheels Up Experience background

Wheels Up Experience is a company that seeks to disrupt the corporate travel industry. It does that by having a fleet of private jets that customers can book easily.

Customers can choose to be members and pay an annual fee. An individual membership starts at $100,000, while an SME package starts at $250,000. The custom enterprise solutions business starts at $500,000 annually. 

The company also offers charter services, where customers don’t need to pay these membership packages. Instead, they can use the pay-as-you-go model where they pay the current rates for their flights. 

Wheels Up Experience operates in a highly competitive industry. NetJets, which Warren Buffett backs, is the biggest player in the private jet industry. The other top players in the sector are firms like Flexjet, VistaJet, FlyExclusive, and BlackJet. 

Read more: Wheels Up stock price forecast: Hopes lost, crash landing ahead

Wheels Up, which Delta Air Lines and Cox Enterprises back, has struggled in the past few years and is now going through a turnaround strategy. It has come close to bankruptcy in the past few years.

As part of its turnaround strategy, the company decided to sell its aircraft management business to Airshare. It also sold some of its Citation X aircraft. The remaining company is a leaner organization, which the management hopes will be more profitable in the future. 

Wheels Up has also announced a fleet modernization plan that it will see it replace its current fleet with Embraer Phenom 300 and Bombardier Challenger 300 series. 

Further, the company announced that it would acquire GrandView Aviation’s fleet of Phenom 300 planes. 

UP earnings ahead

The next key catalyst for Wheels Up’s stock price will be its earnings, which will provide more color on its business performance. 

The most recent results showed that the company’s business was stabilizing. Its active members dropped by 38% to 6,699 during the quarter, a move that it attributed to the changes in its business strategy. Active users dropped to 8,215. 

Wheel’s Up revenue crashed by 39% to $193 million, while its net loss improved by 60% to over $57 million. 

The nine-month revenue dropped by 42% to $587 million, while the net loss narrowed to $252 million. These declines were because the company exited the aircraft management and aircraft sale business. 

Analysts are mixed about the future of Wheels Up. Optimists argue that the firm’s business will continue doing well as the turnaround approach continues. They also point to the modest improvement of its balance sheet after it secured a $332 million revolving credit from Bank of America. 

Wheels Up stock price analysis

UP stock chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the UP stock price has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months. It has dropped below the key support level at $1.15, the lowest swing on November 13. 

The stock has moved below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. Also, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have continued falling. 

The UP share price has also formed a descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish outlook. Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling and move below $1 because of the triangle pattern. 

Conversely, a move above the 100-day moving average at $1.72 will invalidate the bearish outlook. However, there is also a likelihood that the stock may have a short squeeze after earnings. 

The post Wheels Up stock price on edge ahead of earnings: buy the dip? appeared first on Invezz

DocuSign stock price has crashed by almost 30% from its highest level this year as concerns about its growth trajectory remained. It has retreated to $77.85, its lowest level since November 19. Is DOCU a good contrarian stock to buy ahead of its earnings on March 13?

DocuSign earnings ahead

The main catalyst for the DocuSign share price is its upcoming financial results, which will provide more details about its business trajectory.

The most recent third quarter numbers showed that the company’s business was still slowing. Total revenue rose by 8% in Q3 to $754 million. 

DocuSign’s subscription revenue rose by 8% to $734 million, while its professional services rose by 11% to $20.1 million. 

Wall Street analysts expect the upcoming results to show that DocuSign’s revenue will be $761 million. This outlook is near the upper side of its revenue guidance of between $758 million and $762 million. 

The annual revenue is expected to be $2.96 billion, up by 7.25% from the previous year. It will then make $3.15 billion next year, a 6.36% annual increase, signaling that the growth trajectory has faded. 

DocuSign’s growth has come under pressure for two main reasons. First, the e-signature industry has slowed in the past few years since the COVID-19 pandemic ended. 

Second, the industry has become highly saturated, with many mainstream and smaller companies seeking market share. Big names like Adobe, Dropbox, Microsoft, Zoho, and Google are offering these solutions. 

DocuSign has sought to differentiate itself by investing in artificial intelligence (AI). It launched the Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM), which empowers companies to connect and optimize all business processes that involve agreements. 

Organizations of all sizes across all industries use IAM to help them improve the sales process, customer experience, and contract lifecycle. IAM starts at $420 a year, with the IAM Core going for $780 annually. While expensive, DocuSign hopes that companies can save up to $2 trillion. 

Read more: Here’s why DocuSign stock could benefit from Smartsheet acquisition

DOCU has a cheap valuation

DocuSign is one of the biggest companies in the SaaS industry with a market cap of over $16 billion. This valuation is much lower than the peak of $64 billion in 2021 as demand for such SaaS companies fell.

Some analysts believe that DocuSign stock price is substantially undervalued. It has a forward P/E ratio of 16, much lower than the sector median of 27. The non-GAAP PE ratio is 22.5, lower than the sector median of 22. 

This cheap valuation is mostly because analysts anticipate that the company’s growth will continue falling.

DocuSign is also cheap based on the Rule of 40 metric, which looks at a company’s growth and net income margin. Its net income margin is 34%, while its revenue growth is 10, meaning that it has a metric of 44. As such, the company is cheap, making it a good acquisition target in the future. 

DocuSign stock price analysis

DOCU stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the DOCU share price peaked at $105 in December last year. This was a notable level since it was along the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point.

It has now pulled back, and is nearing the key support level at $69.10, the highest swing in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, the DOCU stock price will likely drop and retest the support at $69.10, and then resume the uptrend. This performance is known as a break-and-retest pattern.

The bullish view is in line with what we wrote in the DocuSign share price forecast in December. At the time, we noted that the stock may surge to $175 this year. 

The post DocuSign stock price forecast: could explode higher after earnings appeared first on Invezz

Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers surged in Hong Kong on Tuesday, driven by strong sales forecasts for March and a sharp selloff in Tesla’s stock overnight.

NIO’s shares jumped 8.7% by midday, while XPeng rose 6.2%.

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology and Great Wall Motor climbed 4.9% and 1.65%, respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which was down 0.9%.

The rally followed robust monthly sales figures from Chinese EV makers, in stark contrast to Tesla’s struggles in the US market.

Analysts expect demand in China to remain strong throughout March, with automakers rolling out new models after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Local government incentives aimed at boosting consumption are also expected to provide additional support.

Leapmotor and XPeng lead gains

Among the biggest winners, Leapmotor’s shares surged after the company posted its first-ever quarterly profit.

It reported a net profit of 80 million yuan ($11 million) in the fourth quarter—one year ahead of schedule.

The company’s gross margin reached a record 13.3%, signaling improved efficiency and cost management.

XPeng also benefited from positive sentiment, with Citi upgrading its stock rating to “buy” from “neutral.”

Analysts at Citi cited strong February orders and the company’s increasing focus on artificial intelligence and robotics as key drivers of future growth.

The EV maker also benefitted from announcements of humanoid robots investment.

XPeng views humanoid robots as a long-term endeavour and is considering significant investments that could reach up to 100 billion yuan ($13.8 billion), according to a report by state media Securities Times on Monday, which cited the company’s CEO.

The EV maker ventured into the humanoid robotics sector in 2020 and introduced its humanoid robot, Iron, in November, positioning it as a competitor to Tesla’s Optimus.

China’s EV market is strong

Tesla shares fell 15% on Monday, marking their steepest decline in four years and erasing gains made after the US presidential election.

Investors have been rattled by weaker-than-expected sales data and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s potential role in the Trump administration.

While Tesla struggles, China’s EV market is showing resilience.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that February retail sales of new-energy vehicles, including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, soared 80% year-over-year to 686,000 units.

Analysts believe this momentum will continue into March as automakers ramp up production and introduce new models to meet demand.

Tesla China sales decline

Tesla’s sales in China continued to decline in February, with the company selling 30,688 vehicles, including 3,911 exports, according to CPCA data.

The domestic market saw a drop to 26,777 units, an 11.16% decrease from the same period last year and a 20.55% decline from January.

Industry analysts attribute the weaker numbers to the Chinese New Year holiday, which disrupted production and consumer activity.

Additionally, Tesla temporarily suspended some production lines at its Shanghai plant to optimize manufacturing processes for its updated Model Y.

Tesla’s Shanghai facility remains a crucial hub for the automaker, producing the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover for both domestic sales and international exports.

However, growing competition from domestic EV makers is putting pressure on Tesla to maintain its market share in China.

The post NIO, XPeng, and other Chinese EV stocks surge on strong sales forecast as Tesla stumbles amid weak demand appeared first on Invezz

The cryptocurrency market continues to face sharp declines, with its total market cap dropping to $2.44 trillion on Tuesday—the lowest since early November.

A significant factor adding to investor concerns is the recent movement of Bitcoin from Mt. Gox, the defunct exchange that collapsed over a decade ago.

The platform transferred 11,833 BTC, valued at approximately $932 million, raising fresh uncertainty about the potential impact on market stability.

This development also triggered over $937 million in liquidations within 24 hours, increasing volatility across digital asset markets.

Mt. Gox moves Bitcoin reserves

Mt. Gox has once again moved a substantial portion of its Bitcoin holdings, shifting 11,834 BTC worth roughly $910 million.

Of this, 11,502 BTC (valued at around $885 million) was sent to a new wallet, while 332 BTC ($25.5 million) was transferred to a “warm” wallet used for transactions and fund management.

The movement comes just five days after the platform sent 166.5 BTC to BitGo, a digital asset custodian, suggesting an ongoing process of distributing repayments to creditors who lost funds during the exchange’s collapse.

Monday’s transfer originated from the Mt. Gox wallet “1Mo1n,” which had received $1.07 billion in Bitcoin from another exchange last week.

However, at the time, blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence did not recognize “1Mo1n” as a Mt. Gox wallet, adding to speculation about the purpose of the transactions.

The latest transfers now confirm that the exchange is progressing with its long-awaited creditor repayments.

Bitcoin supply fears grow

The release of such a large volume of Bitcoin into the market has intensified concerns over potential price fluctuations.

The primary fear is that creditors, who have waited years to recover their funds, might sell their Bitcoin holdings upon receiving them.

A sudden influx of Bitcoin into circulation could drive prices lower, further exacerbating the current market downturn.

Some repayments have already been processed through exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp, but the full distribution remains a drawn-out process.

The official repayment deadline has been extended to October 31, 2025, meaning further Bitcoin movements from Mt. Gox wallets could continue in the coming months.

At present, the exchange still holds approximately $2.8 billion worth of Bitcoin in its wallets, a figure that could significantly influence market dynamics depending on creditor actions.

Crypto liquidations surge

The crypto market reacted sharply to the latest Mt. Gox transfers, leading to widespread liquidations across multiple exchanges.

Within 24 hours of the Bitcoin movements, over $937 million worth of positions were liquidated, highlighting the heightened uncertainty among investors.

Bitcoin, already under pressure from macroeconomic concerns, saw additional selling pressure as traders anticipated increased volatility from the expected creditor repayments.

The broader implications of Mt. Gox’s ongoing repayments remain uncertain. If creditors decide to hold their recovered Bitcoin, market impact may be minimal.

However, if a substantial portion is sold, Bitcoin prices could face further downside pressure. Analysts are closely monitoring Mt. Gox’s wallets for further activity as the repayment process continues to unfold.

The post Crypto market slumps to four-month low as Mt. Gox Bitcoin moves spark fresh turmoil appeared first on Invezz

DocuSign stock price has crashed by almost 30% from its highest level this year as concerns about its growth trajectory remained. It has retreated to $77.85, its lowest level since November 19. Is DOCU a good contrarian stock to buy ahead of its earnings on March 13?

DocuSign earnings ahead

The main catalyst for the DocuSign share price is its upcoming financial results, which will provide more details about its business trajectory.

The most recent third quarter numbers showed that the company’s business was still slowing. Total revenue rose by 8% in Q3 to $754 million. 

DocuSign’s subscription revenue rose by 8% to $734 million, while its professional services rose by 11% to $20.1 million. 

Wall Street analysts expect the upcoming results to show that DocuSign’s revenue will be $761 million. This outlook is near the upper side of its revenue guidance of between $758 million and $762 million. 

The annual revenue is expected to be $2.96 billion, up by 7.25% from the previous year. It will then make $3.15 billion next year, a 6.36% annual increase, signaling that the growth trajectory has faded. 

DocuSign’s growth has come under pressure for two main reasons. First, the e-signature industry has slowed in the past few years since the COVID-19 pandemic ended. 

Second, the industry has become highly saturated, with many mainstream and smaller companies seeking market share. Big names like Adobe, Dropbox, Microsoft, Zoho, and Google are offering these solutions. 

DocuSign has sought to differentiate itself by investing in artificial intelligence (AI). It launched the Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM), which empowers companies to connect and optimize all business processes that involve agreements. 

Organizations of all sizes across all industries use IAM to help them improve the sales process, customer experience, and contract lifecycle. IAM starts at $420 a year, with the IAM Core going for $780 annually. While expensive, DocuSign hopes that companies can save up to $2 trillion. 

Read more: Here’s why DocuSign stock could benefit from Smartsheet acquisition

DOCU has a cheap valuation

DocuSign is one of the biggest companies in the SaaS industry with a market cap of over $16 billion. This valuation is much lower than the peak of $64 billion in 2021 as demand for such SaaS companies fell.

Some analysts believe that DocuSign stock price is substantially undervalued. It has a forward P/E ratio of 16, much lower than the sector median of 27. The non-GAAP PE ratio is 22.5, lower than the sector median of 22. 

This cheap valuation is mostly because analysts anticipate that the company’s growth will continue falling.

DocuSign is also cheap based on the Rule of 40 metric, which looks at a company’s growth and net income margin. Its net income margin is 34%, while its revenue growth is 10, meaning that it has a metric of 44. As such, the company is cheap, making it a good acquisition target in the future. 

DocuSign stock price analysis

DOCU stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the DOCU share price peaked at $105 in December last year. This was a notable level since it was along the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point.

It has now pulled back, and is nearing the key support level at $69.10, the highest swing in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, the DOCU stock price will likely drop and retest the support at $69.10, and then resume the uptrend. This performance is known as a break-and-retest pattern.

The bullish view is in line with what we wrote in the DocuSign share price forecast in December. At the time, we noted that the stock may surge to $175 this year. 

The post DocuSign stock price forecast: could explode higher after earnings appeared first on Invezz

Yes, the stock market is now in free fall. 

In just over a month, the S&P 500 has plunged nearly 9%, the Nasdaq has dropped over 12%, and the Dow Jones has shed nearly 3,000 points.

This past Monday’s session alone saw the S&P 500 drop 2.7%, bringing its losses for the past two weeks to over 6%. 

Market volatility has skyrocketed, with the volatility index (VIX) swinging more than 1% in either direction on seven of the past eight trading days.

Wall Street is rattled, and so are everyday investors watching their portfolios shrink.

The reason is of course, Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

His recent announcements have caused widespread economic uncertainty, and a growing sense that the administration is willing to tolerate near-term economic pain to reshape America’s financial landscape

Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession has only deepened market fears. 

The sudden U-turn on tariffs by first imposing them, then freezing them, then threatening more, has left businesses unable to plan.

At the same time, large-scale government layoffs and fiscal tightening have further shaken confidence.

Investors are understandably anxious. But in times of uncertainty, history and data provide clarity.

While no one can predict exactly how the next few months will unfold, there are fundamental truths about investing that remain as relevant today as they were in every past market downturn.

Here’s what investors need to remember right now.

Stock market sell-offs are part of the process

It never feels good to watch the market drop, but corrections and bear markets are part of investing. 

Historically, the S&P 500 experiences an average annual max drawdown of 14%, meaning the kind of declines we’re seeing now are well within the norm. 

Source: JPMorgan

Even in strong bull markets, temporary pullbacks of 5% to 10% happen regularly.

In fact, since 1928, 26% of all years have ended with negative returns, and yet the market has always recovered.

Data from JPMorgan’s Guide to the Markets shows that since 1980, the S&P 500 has ended positive in 32 of the last 42 years despite suffering large intra-year losses. 

The 2008 financial crisis wiped out over 50% of the market’s value, but those who stayed invested saw the S&P 500 rally more than 400% over the next decade. 

Even during the 2020 pandemic crash, where the market fell 34% in weeks, the recovery was swift and overwhelming.

The lesson is clear: crashes feel catastrophic in the moment, but history suggests that they are temporary setbacks in a long-term uptrend.

Short-term volatility is just noise—what matters is the long-term trajectory

It’s tempting to interpret every drop as a sign of something deeper, but markets rarely move in a straight line.

Even during strong bull runs, the stock market sees numerous pullbacks. 

The S&P 500 has historically delivered average annual returns of 8-10%, but those returns do not come in a smooth, linear fashion.

Many investors forget that even the best years for stocks often include significant drawdowns.

The average investor today has access to more financial news than ever before, but more information does not always lead to better decisions. 

The daily focus on red charts and dramatic headlines can distort perspective.

On any given day, the stock market has a 47% chance of being down.

But over long periods, it has consistently gone up. Investors who react to every dip risk losing way more than those who maintain a long-term perspective.

Do not always trust the headlines

Fear sells, and nowhere is this more evident than in financial media. 

The stock market is up more than 80% of the time, but negative news dominates the headlines.

This is because daily market moves are often arbitrary, yet journalists are forced to attach narratives to them. 

Headlines like “Stocks Plunge on Recession Fears” or “Markets Tank as Investors Flee” reinforce panic, even when the decline is within historical norms.

Even if the broader economy remains resilient, media coverage will highlight every negative data point.

Economic uncertainty, trade wars, and shifting policies create an easy backdrop for alarmist reporting. 

Investors need to recognize that most headlines are designed to generate engagement, not provide objective, long-term investment advice.

Taking a step back from the noise and focusing on actual financial data is often the best course of action.

Do not try to time the market

It may seem like a good idea to sell now and buy back when things calm down, but history shows that trying to time the market is one of the worst mistakes an investor can make. 

The biggest market gains often come immediately after the worst crashes. Missing just a handful of the best days in the market can devastate long-term returns.

Consider this: Over the past 20 years, if an investor stayed fully invested in the S&P 500, they would have earned an annualized return of roughly 7%.

But missing just the 10 best days in the market would have cut that return nearly in half. 

Many of these best days occurred when sentiment was still overwhelmingly negative, which is right after major crashes.

Selling during market turmoil means locking in losses and risking missing out on the recovery.

Zoom out

It is difficult to see beyond the chaos when markets are in free fall.

But every major crash in history has eventually given way to a recovery. 

The Great Depression, Black Monday, the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and the pandemic crash all seemed insurmountable at the time, yet long-term investors who held their positions ended up ahead.

Bear markets are much shorter than bull markets.

The average bear market lasts 289 days, while the average bull market runs for 991 days. 

Historically, the stock market has taken just 18 months to fully recover from a bear market’s bottom.

While no one can predict the exact timing of the next recovery, the data suggests that those who remain patient are far more likely to benefit than those who panic and sell.

The markets are in turmoil, and investors are nervous. But history teaches us that market crashes, while painful, are not permanent. 

Those who stay disciplined, avoid emotional decisions, and focus on long-term growth tend to be rewarded.

Stock market investing has always been a game of patience.

This moment is no different.

The best course of action is to simply ignore the noise, stick to your plan, and remember that every crisis eventually gives way to opportunity.

The post What every investor needs to know as the stock market sells off appeared first on Invezz

Li Auto stock price will be in the spotlight this week as the company publishes its financial results. Its American shares were trading at $27.56 on Monday, down by almost 18% from its highest level this year, and by nearly 60% from its lowest level in 2024. Its market cap has risen to almost $30 billion.

Li Auto business has been growing

Li Auto, the giant Chinese EV company, has been growing fast in the past few years, helped by the growing demand for electric vehicles in the country. Its annual revenue has jumped from $40.8 million in 2019 to over $17.4 billion last year, a 43,400% surge. 

This growth happened as the number of vehicles delivered per year jumped. It sold just 1,000 vehicles in 2019, which crossed the 500,000 level in 2024. This growth is strong considering that it sold 376,000.

Most importantly, unlike many EV companies in their growth phase, Li Auto’s business is growing profitably. Its annual profit in 2023 jumped to $1.6 billion. 

Analysts are optimistic that Li Auto’s business continued growing in the fourth quarter as the number of deliveries jumped. Its delivery numbers revealed that it shipped over 158,600 vehicles in Q4, a 20% annualized increase. This jump was lower than its guidance of between 160,000 and 170,000. 

The average estimate is that Li Auto’s revenue will be CNY 44.56 billion or $6.2 billion, a 6.7% annual increase. This figure will bring the annual revenue to 145.6 billion yuan or $20 billion. It will then grow by 31% in 2025 to over 192 billion yuan or $26 billion.

Read more: Li Auto stock price analysis: the bullish case for this Nio rival

Li is beating Tesla

Li Auto, which makes several brands like L9, L8, L7, L6, Li Mega, and Li i8, is doing better than Tesla, a company whose stock has imploded this year. Its delivery and revenue growth is doing much better because of the diverse selection of its brands and its popularity in China. 

Li Auto also has higher gross margins than Tesla, a trend that may continue as it boosts its scale. Tesla has a gross margin of 17.8%, EBITDA margin of 13.3%, and a net income margin of 7.26%. 

Li Auto has a gross margin of 21.4% and EBITDA and net income margins of 5.8% and 7.15%, respectively. These numbers mean that Li will likely pass Tesla in terms of profitability margins in the future as it boosts its scale. 

Tesla’s business is struggling, with the market anticipating a big drop in first-quarter deliveries. Its European sales have dived, and analysts anticipate that the fallout from Musk’s role in DOGE will affect its American business. 

Analysts are upbeat about the Li Auto stock price. The average estimate is that its shares will jump to $32.3, up from the current $27.56.

Read more: Li Auto stock price: here’s why this EV giant is about to surge

Li Auto stock price analysis

Li Auto share price chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the LI share price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. It has jumped from a low of $17.8 in 2024 to a high of $27.56. 

The stock has made a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have crossed each other. This pattern is one of the most bullish patterns in the market. 

The Li Auto stock price has formed a cup and handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign. Therefore, the stock will likely have a bullish breakout, with the next point to watch being $35.60, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement point, which is about 30% above the current level. 

The post Here’s why Li Auto stock price could explode higher after earnings appeared first on Invezz

Consumer staples stocks are defying broader market weakness, benefiting from economic uncertainty and trade concerns.

The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF, which includes household names like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart, has gained over 5% this year.

In contrast, the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF—comprising companies like Amazon, Tesla, and Starbucks—has fallen nearly 7% in 2025.

Investors have favoured staples as they sell essential products that remain in demand even during economic slowdowns.

However, even with various experts talking about higher odds that the US may be entering a recession phase, analysts are advising against further stocking up on staples.

Why are staples currently in demand?

A major driver behind the demand for consumer staple stocks is President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada.

These levies are expected to push up prices, fuelling inflation and squeezing household budgets.

The prospect of higher costs has hurt discretionary and tech stocks, as consumers may cut back on non-essential purchases.

Staples stocks, however, are seen as better positioned to weather these pressures.

These companies have pricing power, allowing them to pass higher import costs onto consumers without significantly denting demand.

As a result, investors seeking a safe haven amid economic uncertainty have turned to the sector.

Staples rally may near its peak despite recession

The key questions for investors now are how much tariffs will drive inflation, how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, and whether these pressures could tip the economy into a recession.

“If you think a recession is inevitable, then staples are a safety trade,” analysts at DataTrek wrote in a recent note.

“If you think the US economy can avoid recession, as we do, then tech is the better group over the next year, as history shows stocks that leverage disruptive innovation tend to outperform over the longer run.”

However, even if the economy slows, some analysts argue that the staples rally is nearing its peak.

S&P 500 staples have outperformed the tech sector by nearly nine percentage points over the past year.

Historically, when staples outperform tech by such margins, the following year has seen tech regain leadership, with the broader market delivering stronger gains.

Valuations approach upper limits of their historic range

Valuation metrics also suggest staples may struggle to extend their gains.

The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF trades at 21.6 times forward earnings, above the S&P 500’s multiple of 20.8, according to FactSet.

While staples sometimes command a slight premium due to their defensive nature, current valuations are approaching the upper end of their historical range.

At the same time, the sector’s multiple is now nearly in line with the consumer discretionary ETF’s 23.3 times earnings.

Staples have historically traded at a discount to discretionary stocks, but that gap has narrowed significantly, raising concerns about limited upside from current levels.

Tech may reclaim leadership

Unlike staples, technology stocks have historically demonstrated stronger earnings growth, fuelled by innovation and market share expansion.

Staples rely on incremental price increases to drive revenue, whereas tech companies often disrupt industries and generate rapid earnings growth, leading to sustained stock price appreciation.

With discretionary and tech stocks trading at more attractive valuations, investors may soon rotate away from staples.

If economic growth holds steady, tech and discretionary earnings should continue to rise, positioning those sectors for stronger performance ahead.

The post Consumer staples outperform in 2025, but here’s why investors may want to reconsider their bets now appeared first on Invezz

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, is set to become Canada’s next prime minister at a critical moment for the nation.

With the country facing a trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump, Carney’s extensive experience in global finance and crisis management will be put to the test.

However, his transition from central banker to political leader raises questions about his ability to navigate the high-stakes world of politics, especially with an early election on the horizon.

Who is Mark Carney?

Carney, 59, made history as the first non-British governor of the Bank of England, serving from 2013 to 2020.

Before that, he led the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis, earning widespread praise for his monetary policies that helped the country avoid the worst of the global downturn.

His reputation as a crisis manager and financial strategist was solidified during his tenure as chair of the Financial Stability Board, where he played a crucial role in global financial regulation.

Despite his financial expertise, Carney has never held elected office.

He stepped into the political spotlight after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January.

His main rival, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, withdrew from the race, paving the way for Carney to win the leadership contest decisively.

However, his leadership will be immediately tested, as Canada’s next federal election is expected to be called as early as this month.

His main challenge will be navigating the escalating trade conflict with the United States, as Trump’s administration imposes steep tariffs on Canadian goods and openly questions the country’s sovereignty.

Mark Carney’s career

Born in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, Carney’s path to power began in finance.

After earning a PhD in economics from Oxford, he spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs, working in New York, London, Tokyo, and Toronto.

His tenure there saw him involved in major financial crises, including the 1998 Russian debt default and the 2008 global financial collapse.

In 2003, he transitioned to public service, joining the Bank of Canada as deputy governor before becoming its chief in 2007.

Under his leadership, Canada became the first G7 nation to fully recover from the financial crisis.

His move to the Bank of England in 2013 marked another milestone, as he introduced significant regulatory changes, including “forward guidance” on interest rates to stabilize markets.

Carney has also been an outspoken advocate for climate finance.

In 2019, he was appointed a UN special envoy for climate change, and in 2021, he co-founded the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, a coalition of financial institutions committed to reducing carbon emissions.

Mark Carney’s net worth: how rich is Canada’s new PM?

Carney has amassed a net worth of approximately $6.97 million as of 2025, according to Pierre Poilievre News.

His wealth comes from a mix of high-profile financial roles, including positions at Goldman Sachs, Brookfield Asset Management, and Bloomberg L.P.

At Goldman Sachs, he held positions such as co-head of sovereign risk and managing director of investment banking.

His expertise in navigating currency markets and economic downturns proved instrumental during global financial crises.

After leaving the private sector, his career in central banking further elevated his influence on global markets.

Challenges ahead for Carney’s leadership

Despite his financial pedigree, Carney faces political scrutiny.

Critics, including Canada’s opposition Conservative Party, have questioned his involvement in Brookfield Asset Management’s decision to shift its headquarters from Toronto to New York.

Additionally, calls for him to disclose his financial holdings have intensified, though his team insists he will comply with ethics regulations once in office.

With a potential election looming and trade tensions with the US escalating, Carney’s ability to transition from financial expert to political leader will be under intense scrutiny.

His tenure as prime minister may ultimately depend on whether his crisis-management skills can translate into electoral success.

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India and China have been taking different approaches to mitigate short-term crude oil supply disruptions, Vortexa said in a report. 

Vortexa flow data revealed that, since January 10, when the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned over 100 tankers involved in Russian oil trade, there have been changes in crude oil export flows from major producing regions to India and China.

The combined crude exports from Russia to India and China have decreased since January 10, even when accounting for seasonal variations, according to the ship-tracking agency. 

Exports from West Africa and the Middle East have increased, however, other Atlantic Basin producers have not shown any indication of increasing exports to India or China at this time, Jay Maroo, head of market intelligence, Middle East and North Africa, Vortexa, said.

Source: Vortexa

Change in export patterns

Russian-origin crude exports have fallen by approximately 450,000 barrels per day since sanctions were implemented on January 10, compared to the average export volumes throughout 2024, Vortexa data showed.

Meanwhile, exports from the Middle East (excluding Iran) have increased by 200,000 barrels per day. 

However, the most significant increase in exports has come from West Africa, which has risen sharply in recent weeks by about twice the amount as Middle Eastern flows.

“The strong uptick in West Africa exports is also motivated by wide Brent-Dubai spreads, which make West African crudes (priced against Brent) relatively cheap in comparison to Middle East grades,” Maroo said in the report. 

Africa ramps up exports

“Within West Africa, a closer look reveals that the main driver of this increase is rising exports from Angola to China,” Maroo added.

Exports to Atlantic Basin buyers (Spain, Netherlands, Italy, and Brazil) have been limited as a result of post-sanctions exports (10-Jan to 28-Feb) exceeding 700,000 barrels a day to China, Vortexa estimates showed. 

While China has historically been a major importer of Angolan crude oil, India has not traditionally been a significant purchaser. 

However, this trend appears to be changing. 

Recent data indicates that India’s imports of Angolan crude oil increased on a month-over-month basis in February. 

This increase in Angolan crude exports to India was accompanied by a similar rise in exports from the Republic of Congo and Cameroon, suggesting a broader trend of increased Indian interest in crude oil from Central and West African sources.

Middle Eastern exports rise

Additionally, the Middle East is the only region outside of West Africa that has shown an increase in exports to China and India.

“With more than half of the tanker fleet that was recently carrying Russian-origin crude now under OFAC sanctions, it makes sense for buyers to look to a region containing multiple ports with large VLCC loading capacity and proximity to Asia, particularly India,” Maroo said. 

Looking at the changes in exports after January 2025 sanctions, we see China’s historically larger Middle East suppliers (Saudi Arabia and Iraq) have increased exports the most, at the expense of other producers.

Source: Vortexa

India has opted to gradually increase imports from smaller suppliers such as the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. Meanwhile, imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq have remained steady.

More pivots expected

Initial analysis suggests that OFAC sanctions in January have prompted India to diversify its crude oil suppliers, while China has consolidated its reliance on its historically large suppliers, according to Vortexa. 

This observation is further supported by the trends seen with West Africa exports.

China’s swift response–increased ship-to-ship activity and reported port group ownership changes–aligns with this strategy, Maroo said. The aim is to sustain Russian Far East ESPO flows into China to the greatest extent possible.

The delayed return of barrels into the market by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies from April will be compounded by the potential divergence in crude procurement by India and China.

“With Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely to be the biggest contributors to this, we could see another pivot, particularly in India’s case, towards the largest producers again,” Maroo added. 

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