Global market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have intensified amid President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with economists warning that the US could be heading for a recession.

During an interview on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,” Trump declined to rule out a downturn, stating, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”

The market responded with a fresh sell-off on Monday, as concerns over trade policy and economic stability grew.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 1,000 points, or 2.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2.8%.

The Nasdaq Composite suffered the worst hit, plunging 5% as major tech stocks saw heavy losses.

Magnificent Seven lead Monday’s market declines

The so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks, which had been among the strongest performers of the bull market, led Monday’s sell-off.

Tesla tumbled 13%, marking its worst single-day performance since 2020.

Alphabet, Meta, and Nvidia each dropped around 5%, while Palantir, a favourite among retail traders, shed more than 10%.

The broader market is also showing signs of strain.

The S&P 500 is now down 9.1% from its February peak, while the Nasdaq Composite has slipped 14%.

Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, have fallen 18% from recent highs—nearing bear market territory.

‘No recession in America’, Lutnick says

Despite market jitters, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession fears, asserting that Americans should “absolutely not” brace for an economic downturn.

Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” on Sunday, Lutnick emphasized Trump’s strategy of imposing reciprocal tariffs on foreign goods.

“There’s going to be no recession in America. … Global tariffs are going to come down because President Trump has said, ‘You want to charge us 100%? We’re going to charge you 100%,’” Lutnick said.

He insisted that Trump’s policies would “unleash America” and drive unprecedented economic growth.

However, market analysts remain skeptical.

“The talk of tariffs is, in a lot of ways, worse than the implementation of them,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at the Bahnsen Group, adding that the tariff talk, reversal, speculation, and chaos only fosters uncertainty.

“I do not believe the administration knows how the tariff situation will play out, but if I were a betting man I would say that it will persist long enough to do damage to economic activity for at least a quarter or two, and ultimately result in a deal with different countries that make everyone wonder why we went through all the fuss,” he said in a note Monday.

Economists debate recession risks

Some economists believe the US economy may already be in a recession.

Last week, Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, placed the likelihood of a recession at 50%, stating that March could mark the official start of an economic contraction.

Berezin’s worst-case scenario projects the S&P 500 falling to 4,200, driven by a decline in corporate earnings and investor confidence.

“I think that driver will be a recession,” he said in an interview with MarketWatch.

Investment banks are also revising their outlooks.

Goldman Sachs increased its recession probability from 15% to 20%, citing the impact of tariffs, inflation, and weaker consumer spending.

Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%, noting that trade policies have been more aggressive than anticipated.

“While we expected growth-constraining policies like tariffs and immigration controls to come first, their severity has exceeded expectations,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note to clients.

Economic data shows signs of weakness

Recent US economic data has raised additional concerns.

Consumer spending unexpectedly declined in January, while the trade deficit widened to a record $131 billion as companies rushed to move goods ahead of new tariffs.

Consumer confidence also fell sharply in February, marking its steepest drop in four years.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model currently estimates that the US economy could contract by 2.4% in the first quarter.

While this model is volatile, it underscores the mounting risks to economic growth.

Investors await inflation data for further clues

Markets are now looking ahead to key inflation reports due later this week.

Monthly consumer and producer price index data will offer insights into whether inflation remains stubbornly high.

Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, warned that uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies is weighing on sentiment.

“Markets are now starting to get concerned about the prospects for growth in 2025,” he said.

“Trump’s tariff policy has been unpredictable, with a series of retreats so rapid they almost collide with the next tax hike announcement

“The rather chaotic US tariff policy still allows companies to sell a story to their customers to cover for price increases, and some may also try to raise prices in anticipation of tariffs that actually end up being retreated from.”

As investors digest the latest developments, all eyes will be on whether Trump’s economic policies can stimulate growth or push the US closer to a prolonged downturn.

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Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers surged in Hong Kong on Tuesday, driven by strong sales forecasts for March and a sharp selloff in Tesla’s stock overnight.

NIO’s shares jumped 8.7% by midday, while XPeng rose 6.2%.

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology and Great Wall Motor climbed 4.9% and 1.65%, respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which was down 0.9%.

The rally followed robust monthly sales figures from Chinese EV makers, in stark contrast to Tesla’s struggles in the US market.

Analysts expect demand in China to remain strong throughout March, with automakers rolling out new models after the Lunar New Year holiday.

Local government incentives aimed at boosting consumption are also expected to provide additional support.

Leapmotor and XPeng lead gains

Among the biggest winners, Leapmotor’s shares surged after the company posted its first-ever quarterly profit.

It reported a net profit of 80 million yuan ($11 million) in the fourth quarter—one year ahead of schedule.

The company’s gross margin reached a record 13.3%, signaling improved efficiency and cost management.

XPeng also benefited from positive sentiment, with Citi upgrading its stock rating to “buy” from “neutral.”

Analysts at Citi cited strong February orders and the company’s increasing focus on artificial intelligence and robotics as key drivers of future growth.

The EV maker also benefitted from announcements of humanoid robots investment.

XPeng views humanoid robots as a long-term endeavour and is considering significant investments that could reach up to 100 billion yuan ($13.8 billion), according to a report by state media Securities Times on Monday, which cited the company’s CEO.

The EV maker ventured into the humanoid robotics sector in 2020 and introduced its humanoid robot, Iron, in November, positioning it as a competitor to Tesla’s Optimus.

China’s EV market is strong

Tesla shares fell 15% on Monday, marking their steepest decline in four years and erasing gains made after the US presidential election.

Investors have been rattled by weaker-than-expected sales data and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s potential role in the Trump administration.

While Tesla struggles, China’s EV market is showing resilience.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported that February retail sales of new-energy vehicles, including battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, soared 80% year-over-year to 686,000 units.

Analysts believe this momentum will continue into March as automakers ramp up production and introduce new models to meet demand.

Tesla China sales decline

Tesla’s sales in China continued to decline in February, with the company selling 30,688 vehicles, including 3,911 exports, according to CPCA data.

The domestic market saw a drop to 26,777 units, an 11.16% decrease from the same period last year and a 20.55% decline from January.

Industry analysts attribute the weaker numbers to the Chinese New Year holiday, which disrupted production and consumer activity.

Additionally, Tesla temporarily suspended some production lines at its Shanghai plant to optimize manufacturing processes for its updated Model Y.

Tesla’s Shanghai facility remains a crucial hub for the automaker, producing the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover for both domestic sales and international exports.

However, growing competition from domestic EV makers is putting pressure on Tesla to maintain its market share in China.

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Voters in Greenland are heading to the polls on Tuesday in a crucial parliamentary election, with the long-standing issue of independence from Denmark taking center stage.

The vote also comes amid renewed interest from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly suggested that the United States should take control of the Arctic island—despite firm opposition from both Greenland and Denmark.

The pro-independence Inuit Ataqatigiit party, which currently leads the government, is expected to maintain its influence in the 31-seat Inatsisartut (Greenland’s parliament), according to a January poll.

Their closest competitor, Siumut, also supports independence, with both parties advocating for a future referendum.

However, a concrete timeline for breaking away from Denmark has yet to be established.

Denmark’s role and financial support

Although Greenland manages its domestic affairs, Denmark oversees its foreign policy and defense.

Copenhagen also provides an annual block grant of $511 million, which accounts for about 20% of Greenland’s GDP and more than half of its public budget, according to the International Trade Administration.

While Denmark has repeatedly stated that Greenland is not for sale, officials remain wary of the growing push for self-rule.

Trump revives US claims on Greenland

Trump has sparked controversy by suggesting the US should take control of Greenland, citing economic and national security interests.

In December, he called Greenland’s ownership “essential” to America, prompting a swift rejection from Greenland’s Prime Minister Mute Egede, who insisted, “We are not for sale and will never be for sale.”

Despite Denmark and Greenland firmly rejecting the idea, Trump raised the issue again last week, telling Congress that the US would secure control over Greenland “one way or the other.”

He followed up with a post on Truth Social, pledging billions of dollars in investment if Greenland chooses to align with the US.

Greenland’s stance: Independence, not US statehood

While many Greenlanders support the idea of independence, joining the US is not a popular alternative.

A January poll by Verian found that 85% of Greenlanders opposed becoming part of the US, while only 6% supported it.

However, 56% said they would vote for independence in a referendum.

Danish lawmaker Rasmus Jarlov dismissed Trump’s claims, stating that no candidate in Greenland’s election supports joining the US.

He also noted that Greenland currently enjoys full political rights within Denmark, while under the US, it would likely become a territory without voting rights—similar to Puerto Rico.

What’s next for Greenland?

Analysts suggest that rather than seeking to “own” Greenland, the US should focus on strengthening diplomatic and economic ties with the region.

The US has already invested in Greenland’s mining, education, and tourism sectors, and experts believe a cooperative approach would benefit both nations.

As Greenland moves closer to self-determination, the election outcome will shape the next steps toward independence.

However, with Trump keeping Greenland on his radar, the political and diplomatic discussions surrounding its future are far from over.

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Singapore iron ore futures experienced an upswing on Tuesday, fueled by optimistic projections of heightened demand from the steel industry. 

These expectations are tied to the anticipated resumption of production by steelmakers in northern China, a region that holds significant sway as the world’s leading consumer of iron ore. 

The resumption is slated to occur in the wake of the conclusion of China’s annual parliamentary meeting, also known as the National People’s Congress.

This yearly gathering typically sets the tone for China’s economic policies and infrastructure investments for the coming year. 

China’s annual legislative meetings, also known as the Two Sessions, began on March 4 and will conclude today.

Meeting expectations

Market sentiment suggests that the meeting’s outcomes will likely favor infrastructure development, which, in turn, would bolster the demand for steel and, consequently, iron ore. 

The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to cut China’s annual steel production during the current parliamentary session. 

While the Commission didn’t specify the size of the reduction, media reports estimate it to be around 50 million tons, approximately 5% of last year’s output.

The extent to which this will be implemented remains to be seen. 

Recent years have seen frequent discussions about production cuts, but these discussions have not resulted in significant progress.

Volkmar Baur, FX analyst at Commerzbank AG, said:

However, it has to be said that this time the tone seems to be a little more explicit, so the market has taken a signal in that direction.

The northern region of China plays a pivotal role in the country’s steel production, and the resumption of operations by steel mills in this area is seen as a key indicator of the overall health of the steel industry and the broader economy.

Tariffs and demand concerns cap gains

The US President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs and the potential steel output cut in China have escalated global trade friction. This, along with concerns over demand, capped the gains on Tuesday. 

Iron ore prices experienced mixed results today. 

The benchmark April iron ore on the Singapore Exchange initially fell to its lowest level since January 14, hitting $98.85 a ton, but later rebounded to close at $100.65 a metric ton, a 0.76% increase. 

Meanwhile, the most actively traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange saw a 0.19% decrease, ending the morning session at 773.5 yuan ($106.73) a ton.

Iron ore demand to remain weak

Iron ore demand is typically gauged by hot metal output.

Key steelmaking ingredient prices fell on Monday as hopes for additional stimulus from China faded and concerns over the potential impact of new tariffs from Trump clouded demand prospects. 

This was driven by weak macro sentiment.

Steel production in China likely increased in the first two months of the year, based on preliminary 10-day data, according to Commerzbank. 

However, official figures will not be published until March 17.

“However, the ongoing problems in the Chinese property market indicate that steel demand is unlikely to increase in 2025,” Baur said. 

The continued problem of overcapacity in Chinese steel production increases the likelihood of an actual production cut in China.

The iron ore price is likely to suffer if this plan is implemented. Upside potential therefore remains limited.

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Yes, the stock market is now in free fall. 

In just over a month, the S&P 500 has plunged nearly 9%, the Nasdaq has dropped over 12%, and the Dow Jones has shed nearly 3,000 points.

This past Monday’s session alone saw the S&P 500 drop 2.7%, bringing its losses for the past two weeks to over 6%. 

Market volatility has skyrocketed, with the volatility index (VIX) swinging more than 1% in either direction on seven of the past eight trading days.

Wall Street is rattled, and so are everyday investors watching their portfolios shrink.

The reason is of course, Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

His recent announcements have caused widespread economic uncertainty, and a growing sense that the administration is willing to tolerate near-term economic pain to reshape America’s financial landscape. 

Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession has only deepened market fears. 

The sudden U-turn on tariffs by first imposing them, then freezing them, then threatening more, has left businesses unable to plan.

At the same time, large-scale government layoffs and fiscal tightening have further shaken confidence.

Investors are understandably anxious. But in times of uncertainty, history and data provide clarity.

While no one can predict exactly how the next few months will unfold, there are fundamental truths about investing that remain as relevant today as they were in every past market downturn.

Here’s what investors need to remember right now.

Stock market sell-offs are part of the process

It never feels good to watch the market drop, but corrections and bear markets are part of investing. 

Historically, the S&P 500 experiences an average annual max drawdown of 14%, meaning the kind of declines we’re seeing now are well within the norm. 

Even in strong bull markets, temporary pullbacks of 5% to 10% happen regularly.

In fact, since 1928, 26% of all years have ended with negative returns, and yet the market has always recovered.

Data from JPMorgan’s Guide to the Markets shows that since 1980, the S&P 500 has ended positive in 32 of the last 42 years despite suffering large intra-year losses. 

The 2008 financial crisis wiped out over 50% of the market’s value, but those who stayed invested saw the S&P 500 rally more than 400% over the next decade. 

Even during the 2020 pandemic crash, where the market fell 34% in weeks, the recovery was swift and overwhelming.

The lesson is clear: crashes feel catastrophic in the moment, but history suggests that they are temporary setbacks in a long-term uptrend.

Short-term volatility is just noise—what matters is the long-term trajectory

It’s tempting to interpret every drop as a sign of something deeper, but markets rarely move in a straight line.

Even during strong bull runs, the stock market sees numerous pullbacks. 

The S&P 500 has historically delivered average annual returns of 8-10%, but those returns do not come in a smooth, linear fashion.

Many investors forget that even the best years for stocks often include significant drawdowns.

The average investor today has access to more financial news than ever before, but more information does not always lead to better decisions. 

The daily focus on red charts and dramatic headlines can distort perspective.

On any given day, the stock market has a 47% chance of being down.

But over long periods, it has consistently gone up. Investors who react to every dip risk losing way more than those who maintain a long-term perspective.

Do not always trust the headlines

Fear sells, and nowhere is this more evident than in financial media. 

The stock market is up more than 80% of the time, but negative news dominates the headlines.

This is because daily market moves are often arbitrary, yet journalists are forced to attach narratives to them. 

Headlines like “Stocks Plunge on Recession Fears” or “Markets Tank as Investors Flee” reinforce panic, even when the decline is within historical norms.

Even if the broader economy remains resilient, media coverage will highlight every negative data point.

Economic uncertainty, trade wars, and shifting policies create an easy backdrop for alarmist reporting. 

Investors need to recognize that most headlines are designed to generate engagement, not provide objective, long-term investment advice.

Taking a step back from the noise and focusing on actual financial data is often the best course of action.

Do not try to time the market

It may seem like a good idea to sell now and buy back when things calm down, but history shows that trying to time the market is one of the worst mistakes an investor can make. 

The biggest market gains often come immediately after the worst crashes. Missing just a handful of the best days in the market can devastate long-term returns.

Consider this: Over the past 20 years, if an investor stayed fully invested in the S&P 500, they would have earned an annualized return of roughly 7%.

But missing just the 10 best days in the market would have cut that return nearly in half. 

Many of these best days occurred when sentiment was still overwhelmingly negative, which is right after major crashes.

Selling during market turmoil means locking in losses and risking missing out on the recovery.

Zoom out

It is difficult to see beyond the chaos when markets are in free fall.

But every major crash in history has eventually given way to a recovery. 

The Great Depression, Black Monday, the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and the pandemic crash all seemed insurmountable at the time, yet long-term investors who held their positions ended up ahead.

Bear markets are much shorter than bull markets.

The average bear market lasts 289 days, while the average bull market runs for 991 days. 

Historically, the stock market has taken just 18 months to fully recover from a bear market’s bottom.

While no one can predict the exact timing of the next recovery, the data suggests that those who remain patient are far more likely to benefit than those who panic and sell.

The markets are in turmoil, and investors are nervous. But history teaches us that market crashes, while painful, are not permanent. 

Those who stay disciplined, avoid emotional decisions, and focus on long-term growth tend to be rewarded.

Stock market investing has always been a game of patience.

This moment is no different.

The best course of action is to simply ignore the noise, stick to your plan, and remember that every crisis eventually gives way to opportunity.

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