Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) expects revenue growth in 2025 across its investment bank and three other core business units, despite a challenging economic outlook in Germany and risks in the auto sector.

The latest forecast, published in the bank’s annual report, provides a detailed breakdown of its expected performance for the year ahead.

This outlook is particularly significant for CEO Christian Sewing, who is navigating profitability targets amid a weak domestic economy.

While the eurozone’s growth may accelerate slightly, the bank anticipates Germany’s economy to lag, highlighting key risks such as the automotive sector’s transition to electric vehicles and competition from China.

Auto sector risks grow

Deutsche Bank’s investment banking division was a major contributor to its revenue increase in 2024, growing by 15%. This helped drive a 25% rise in the bank’s total bonus pool to €2.5 billion.

The bank expects further momentum in 2025, bolstered by trading activity and corporate transactions.

However, economic uncertainty remains a concern, particularly in Germany.

The country’s automotive industry, a crucial sector for Deutsche Bank’s corporate lending portfolio, faces challenges from potential US tariffs, slow EV adoption, and intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers.

The bank acknowledged that this segment presents a “growing risk” and is closely monitoring its auto and supplier exposure.

A weaker domestic economy could further strain carmakers and suppliers, impacting the bank’s loan portfolio.

Real estate stabilising

Another area of risk for Deutsche Bank in recent years has been its exposure to the commercial real estate market.

While challenges persist, the bank noted that the sector is showing signs of stabilisation.

This comes as global interest rate movements continue to impact property valuations and refinancing conditions.

Despite macroeconomic concerns, Deutsche Bank remains optimistic about its broader business strategy.

It continues to invest in digital transformation initiatives and operational efficiencies, which are expected to support revenue growth across its core divisions.

Cost-cutting measures and restructuring efforts may help the bank navigate economic headwinds in 2025.

CEO earnings rise

CEO Christian Sewing saw his total compensation rise to an estimated €9.75 million ($10.61 million) in 2024, up from €8.75 million in 2023.

The increase reflects Deutsche Bank’s improved financial performance and a shift in how bonuses are calculated.

The highest-paid employee at the bank earned between €17 million and €18 million.

Overall, Deutsche Bank’s workforce saw an 8% increase in total compensation, with employee earnings rising to €11.1 billion in 2024.

The bank’s annual report underscores its commitment to rewarding performance while maintaining cost discipline as it works towards long-term profitability targets.

While bonuses surged, Deutsche Bank has also been focused on improving efficiency, with continued cost-saving measures in place to balance spending.

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Shares of Trainline PLC dropped sharply Thursday, falling more than 13% even as the rail ticketing platform reported higher sales and announced a new share buyback programme, with investors wary of a looming state-backed rival.

The FTSE 250 index, in contrast, slipped just 0.2%.

Trainline reported net ticket sales of £5.91 billion for the financial year ending February 28, a 12% increase from £5.30 billion in the previous year.

The company’s revenue rose by 11% to £442 million, up from £397 million.

Growth was seen across all segments, with UK Consumer, International Consumer, and Trainline Solutions divisions each posting a 12% revenue increase at constant currency.

The company expects adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) as a percentage of net ticket sales to be slightly ahead of its prior guidance of 2.6% for financial 2025.

For financial 2026, the company maintained its guidance at 2.6% to 2.7%.

Investor concerns over the establishment of GBR weighs on sentiment

Despite Trainline’s positive performance, investor concerns over the UK government’s plan to establish Great British Rail (GBR) weighed on sentiment.

GBR, envisioned as an arms-length governing body, would replace the current train operator retail websites with a single public sector retail platform, directly competing with Trainline.

This would enable consumers to search for and purchase the best tickets through a single app, regardless of the route, undermining a key benefit Trainline users currently enjoy.

Trainline emphasized that the service is unlikely to launch before 2027 and vowed to push for fair competition between the new platform and its own app.

“The government is unequivocal in its commitment to a fair, open and competitive market, recognising the central role independent retailers play,” Trainline said.

As part of the industry consultation, the government is engaging with Trainline and other independent retailers to assess various safeguards typically observed in regulated markets. This is to ensure [the new app] is not treated favourably versus other retailers, which is in line with competition law principles.

Trainline CEO Jody Ford expressed confidence in the company’s ability to thrive in a competitive market.

“With record net ticket sales for the third year in a row, we saw growth in consumer sales in the UK of 13% and in Spain of 41%, while international B2B sales through our Global API increased by about 60%,’ said Chief Executive Officer Jody Ford.

There is still so much to be achieved in the UK and Europe with the critical foundation being open, fair and competitive markets. Rail is set to surge across Europe and Trainline will be at the centre of it.

New share buyback program

In a bid to boost shareholder returns, Trainline announced a new £75 million share buyback program following the completion of its current £75 million buyback, which has seen £69 million in shares repurchased since June last year.

The new program will be conducted in two tranches of £37.5 million each, with Morgan Stanley managing the first and Deutsche Numis handling the second.

Investors will closely watch Trainline’s performance in the coming months as the company navigates regulatory challenges and aims to solidify its foothold in the European rail market.

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Deliveroo PLC has achieved its first annual profit since going public, marking a significant milestone for the takeaway delivery company that once earned the nickname “flopperoo” following its disastrous stock market debut.

The company reported a profit of £3 million for 2024, a stark turnaround from the £32 million loss recorded in 2023.

Founded in 2013 by Will Shu and Greg Orlowski, Deliveroo has struggled for years to break even as it expanded aggressively from a startup to a major player in the global food delivery industry.

The company’s listing on the London Stock Exchange in 2021, which valued it at £7.6 billion, was marred by an immediate 26% drop in share price, the worst debut in the exchange’s history.

However, Deliveroo’s fortunes have shifted.

In 2024, the company not only posted its first profit but also generated positive cash flow for the first time.

Revenue rose to £2.1 billion, driven by a 5% increase in the total value of orders to £7.4 billion.

The company’s core markets remain Britain and Ireland, with a presence in eight other countries.

Diversifying beyond takeaways

Deliveroo attributed its improved performance to a broader strategy that goes beyond traditional takeaway deliveries.

Grocery deliveries now account for 16% of sales, while the company has also partnered with retailers such as Ann Summers, B&Q, The Perfume Shop, and Not On The High Street to expand its offering.

Despite this progress, Deliveroo’s share price fell 8% following the announcement, as analysts flagged concerns over “soft” expectations for future profit growth.

Competition remains fierce, particularly from rivals like Uber Eats and Just Eat Takeaway, whose parent company, Prosus, is backed by deep-pocketed South African investors.

Challenges ahead

Deliveroo has raised around £1 billion from venture capital investors and an additional £1 billion through its initial public offering.

However, the company’s journey to profitability has come at a cost.

In recent years, Deliveroo has exited unprofitable markets, including a recent decision to leave Hong Kong after being squeezed out by a Chinese competitor.

The company has also faced scrutiny over the working conditions of its gig economy riders.

In 2023, Deliveroo successfully argued in court that its workers are self-employed, allowing it to avoid the costs associated with full employment.

Global trade winds could impact recovery amid slow growth: analysts

Will Shu, Deliveroo’s CEO, hailed the results as evidence that the company’s strategy is working.

“The robust results we’ve announced today, with our first full-year profit and positive free cash flow as well as gross transaction volume growth across our verticals, demonstrate that our strategy is working,” he said.

However, market analysts remain cautious. Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented:

It’s been a long hard slog but Deliveroo has finally climbed the tough summit of reaching annual profitability … Growth is already highly sluggish in the UK, and there are concerns that the harsh global trade winds blowing could knock recovery off course.

As Deliveroo charts a path forward, investors will be watching closely to see whether the company can sustain its newfound profitability in an increasingly competitive and uncertain market.

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Donald Trump built his presidency on promises of economic strength. 

But as the markets tumble and businesses hesitate, the public is now worried that the US is heading for a recession. 

But the answer isn’t simple, even if the warning signs are there.

The markets have lost trillions, consumer confidence is sliding, and businesses are feeling the strain of Trump’s unpredictable trade policies. 

While the economy was strong when he took office in January, his aggressive tariff strategy has fueled uncertainty.

And if the pattern continues, the US could be on the verge of a downturn that didn’t have to happen.

Are markets signaling trouble?

The US stock market has seen sharp declines in recent weeks.

Since hitting an all-time high last month, the S&P 500 has lost more than $3 trillion in value.

Investors are reacting to Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies, which have hit major trade partners, including Canada, Mexico, and China.

One of the biggest concerns is how businesses are responding. Companies thrive on stability, but when policies change overnight, they hold back on spending. 

That’s exactly what’s happening now. Businesses are delaying investments, hiring plans are being adjusted, and small businesses are raising prices to offset higher import costs.

The stock market isn’t the economy, but it reflects investor confidence. Right now, confidence is low.

How bad is consumer confidence?

Consumers drive the US economy. If they stop spending, businesses suffer, jobs are lost, and growth slows down. Right now, confidence is on the decline.

According to the latest CNN/SSRS poll, only 35% of Americans believe the country is on the right track.

That’s a problem. Consumer confidence tends to drop before a recession, and while one survey isn’t definitive proof, the downward trend is important.

Financial stress is also creeping in. Household debt is rising, and credit card and auto loan delinquencies are increasing.

This suggests that some Americans are struggling to keep up with their payments, a warning sign that economic pressure is mounting. 

If wages don’t rise fast enough and interest rates remain high, spending will slow even further, and that’s the kind of squeeze that leads to job losses.

What do voters think about this?

The latest polling data suggests that most Americans disapprove of Trump’s economic management.

While his base remains somewhat loyal, frustration is building, and even Republicans are starting to question his policies.

The CNN/SSRS poll found that 56% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, the worst rating of his presidency. This is higher than at any point during his first term.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll echoed similar concerns. It found that 57% of Americans believe Trump’s economic policies are “erratic”, including one in three Republicans.

That’s a big change to what the public thought pre-election. While Trump has typically maintained strong Republican support, the trade war and market volatility are beginning to test their patience.

A separate Emerson College poll found that Trump’s disapproval rating has climbed to 45%, up two points in just a week.

The biggest concerns are, of course, tariffs, cost of living, and fears that the economy is heading in the wrong direction.

Is the US actually heading for a recession?

The short answer: Maybe, but not yet.

The economy is still growing. Unemployment remains low, and companies are still hiring. 

But major banks are starting to sound the alarm. JP Morgan now puts the risk of a 2025 recession at 40%, up from 30% earlier this year.

Goldman Sachs raised its estimate from 15% to 20%. Those aren’t recession guarantees, but they show that experts are growing more cautious.

The real problem however, isn’t that the economy is weak. It’s that Trump’s policies are increasing the risk of something breaking.

The economy was strong when he took office. Now, it’s absorbing unnecessary shocks.

What happens next?

Trump could change course. It is not yet obvious if his policies are just power plays. 

If he reverses tariffs and reassures businesses, confidence could return. But there’s no sign he plans to do that.

Instead, his administration has indicated that it’s willing to “endure short-term economic pain” for long-term gains.

The problem is, markets don’t believe those gains will come. Investors assumed Trump would step in if the economy stumbled.

But his new message suggests he’s fine letting markets drop and businesses struggle.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress could limit his tariff authority, although they haven’t yet.

Many privately oppose his policies but are reluctant to challenge him publicly.

That may change if economic conditions worsen and voters start blaming their elected officials.

For now, the US isn’t in a recession, but it’s flirting with one. And unless something changes, the risk will only grow.

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US President Donald Trump has reignited trade tensions with the European Union by threatening to impose a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic products from France and the wider EU.

The move comes in retaliation to the bloc’s decision to impose a 50% tariff on American whiskey, further straining relations between the two economic giants.

European alcohol stocks tumble

Following Trump’s announcement, shares of leading European alcohol producers saw a sharp decline.

French spirits companies Pernod Ricard, Rémy Cointreau, and Italian drinks group Davide Campari all dropped more than 4%.

Luxury conglomerate LVMH, which owns renowned brands such as Moët & Chandon and Hennessy, also dipped by more than 0.8%.

However, British drinks giant Diageo, the owner of Johnnie Walker and Guinness, experienced a more modest decline of just 0.12%.

The market reaction reflects growing anxiety over the potential financial blow to European alcohol exports, particularly in the premium wine and spirits segment, which relies heavily on the American market.

Retaliatory move against EU whiskey tariffs

Trump’s tariff threat comes in response to the EU’s recent decision to slap a 50% tariff on US whiskey, which was part of the bloc’s retaliation against American tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The EU’s measures are set to be implemented in two phases, with the first wave targeting iconic American products like Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

A second wave, expected in mid-April, will focus on farm products and industrial goods from key Republican districts.

In a social media post, Trump labeled the EU as “hostile and abusive” and warned that the 200% tariff would take effect unless the EU promptly removed its whiskey tariffs.

“If this tariff is not removed immediately, the US will shortly place a 200 percent tariff on all wines, Champagnes, and alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries,” Trump wrote on social media on Thursday.

A history of trade disputes

This is not the first time the alcohol industry has been caught in the crossfire of a US-EU trade war.

During Trump’s first term, the US imposed tariffs on European liquor, which led to a significant drop in American whiskey exports to the EU.

According to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, exports fell by 20% over the following three years.

Despite efforts by industry executives to lobby against the latest round of tariffs, there appears to be little hope for an immediate resolution.

Ulrich Adam, director general of spiritsEurope, described Trump’s threat as a “shocker” and called for alcoholic beverages to be excluded from unrelated trade disputes.

Impact on the European alcohol market

The US is a critical market for European wines and spirits.

In 2024, the US imported $1.23 billion worth of distilled spirits from the EU, while American whiskey exports to Europe reached $699 million.

France’s Champagne industry, in particular, relies heavily on the US, with 16% of its total exports heading to American shores.

The tariff threat has raised concerns about the financial impact on European producers and the potential for prolonged instability in trans-Atlantic trade relations.

While Trump’s previous tariff threats on Champagne did not materialize, industry experts fear that this time the president may follow through.

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