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Baidu shares surge 10.7% on Tuesday: here’s why

Baidu’s shares surged 10.7% in Asian trading on Tuesday following the release of two new artificial intelligence models over the weekend.

The Chinese tech giant introduced the latest version of its foundational “Ernie” model alongside a new reasoning model designed to rival DeepSeek’s R1.

The market response indicates growing confidence in Baidu’s AI capabilities as it seeks to re-establish itself as a dominant player in China’s fast-evolving AI sector.

The company has been facing stiff competition from rivals like Alibaba and Bytedance, as well as the unexpected rise of DeepSeek, which disrupted the AI landscape with its cost-efficient R1 model in January.

Baidu’s decision to open-source its latest models signals a strategic shift aimed at regaining market leadership, but whether it can match DeepSeek’s momentum remains to be seen.

Baidu takes on DeepSeek

Baidu claims its ERNIE X1 reasoning model delivers performance on par with DeepSeek R1 at only half the price.

This positioning directly challenges DeepSeek, whose R1 model has drawn praise for achieving competitive results at a fraction of the cost and with less advanced hardware.

While the cost-effectiveness of AI models is a critical factor in adoption, pricing in China’s AI market remains fluid, making it difficult to determine whether Baidu’s approach will gain traction.

DeepSeek’s rapid rise earlier this year reshaped the AI competitive landscape in China, overshadowing Baidu’s previous AI advancements.

Despite being among the first to launch a ChatGPT-like chatbot with its Ernie Bot, Baidu found itself trailing behind newer players with more aggressive market strategies.

The release of these new models is seen as an effort to reclaim lost ground and position itself as a leading AI provider for enterprises needing advanced computing solutions.

Open-source strategy shift

Baidu’s decision to open-source its latest models marks a departure from its previous proprietary-focused AI strategy.

By making its models freely available, the company aims to establish its technology as an industry standard while strengthening its influence in the AI developer community.

This approach mirrors DeepSeek’s strategy and could help Baidu expand its market share by encouraging broader adoption of its AI technology.

The move also reflects a broader trend in AI, where open-source models are increasingly seen as a way to accelerate innovation and gain competitive advantages.

Companies leveraging open-source strategies can build ecosystems around their technologies, attracting developers and businesses that can customise and implement AI solutions tailored to their needs.

However, the success of this strategy depends on whether Baidu’s models can consistently deliver the promised performance and cost benefits.

Analysts assess Baidu’s AI prospects

According to Morningstar senior equity analyst Kai Wang, Baidu’s stock jump is likely a “delayed reaction” to the AI model releases, as investors reassess its potential in China’s competitive AI space.

He noted that while Baidu has not received the same level of attention as other major cloud computing firms, its AI advancements could drive increased enterprise demand for hosting, scaling, and computing power.

Counterpoint Research principal analyst Wei Sun highlighted that Baidu’s competitiveness now hinges on whether its new models truly deliver on their performance and pricing promises.

While the company’s open-source move is a strategic attempt to establish an AI industry standard, the market remains highly dynamic, with pricing and technological advancements shifting rapidly.

Baidu’s ability to differentiate itself from competitors like DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Bytedance will be crucial in determining its future AI market position.

The post Baidu shares surge 10.7% on Tuesday: here’s why appeared first on Invezz

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Who is Tracy Morgan? The comedian with a $70 million net worth

During the New York Knicks’ game against the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden on Monday, March 17, 2025, comedian and actor Tracy Morgan experienced a medical incident while seated courtside.

Witnesses reported that Morgan, 56, suddenly became ill, vomiting onto the court and appearing to have a bloody nose. Arena staff and medical personnel quickly responded to assist him.

Morgan, known for his quick wit and larger-than-life personality, has been a staple in comedy for decades.

From his early stand-up days to his breakout roles on Saturday Night Live and 30 Rock, he continues to be one of the most recognizable and celebrated figures in entertainment.

With a career spanning over three decades, his wealth has grown significantly, making him one of the richest comedians in Hollywood.

His net worth, estimated at $70 million in 2025, reflects not only his earnings from acting and stand-up but also his work as a producer, writer, and author.

Morgan’s financial success is underscored by his extensive career in television and film, as well as lucrative deals in the entertainment industry.

Despite facing significant personal and professional challenges, including a near-fatal car accident in 2014, he has continued to work on high-profile projects.

His financial portfolio includes earnings from television shows, films, comedy specials, and book sales, making him one of the wealthiest figures in the comedy world today.

Rise to sitcom fame

Morgan’s career began in the New York comedy circuit before he secured a spot on “Saturday Night Live” in 1996.

He quickly became a fan favourite, thanks to his energetic performances and unforgettable characters.

After leaving “SNL” in 2003, he starred in “30 Rock,” where his portrayal of Tracy Jordan earned him critical acclaim and a Primetime Emmy nomination.

The show, which ran from 2006 to 2013, remains one of the most celebrated sitcoms of the 21st century.

Beyond television, Morgan has appeared in several films, including “The Longest Yard” (2005), “Cop Out” (2010), and “Death at a Funeral” (2010).

His stand-up career has also been a major source of income, with popular comedy specials such as “Tracy Morgan: Black and Blue” (2011) and “Tracy Morgan: Staying Alive” (2017).

In addition, he authored the memoir “I Am the New Black” in 2009, providing insight into his personal and professional life.

Overcoming adversity, health concerns, and career revival

In 2014, Morgan’s life changed drastically when he was involved in a serious car accident on a New Jersey highway.

The crash, caused by a Walmart truck driver who had reportedly been awake for over 24 hours, resulted in the death of Morgan’s close friend and fellow comedian, James McNair.

Morgan sustained severe injuries, including a traumatic brain injury, broken ribs, and a fractured leg.

He was placed in a medically induced coma for two weeks and underwent months of rehabilitation.

The legal battle that followed ended in a settlement with Walmart in 2015. While the amount was undisclosed, reports speculated that it was as high as $90 million—though Morgan’s lawyer denied this figure.

The financial outcome allowed him to focus on his recovery, and by 2018, he made a return to television with “The Last O.G.,” a comedy series on TBS that he also executive produced.

Ongoing projects

Morgan continues to be an active figure in the entertainment industry.

His latest project, “SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night,” revisits his roots in comedy and explores the evolution of “Saturday Night Live.”

His involvement in television production, combined with earnings from stand-up tours and past investments, ensures that his wealth remains substantial.

With a career built on versatility and resilience, Morgan’s estimated $70 million net worth reflects both his professional achievements and financial acumen.

His ability to adapt and stay relevant in the industry suggests that his fortune could continue to grow in the coming years.

The post Who is Tracy Morgan? The comedian with a $70 million net worth appeared first on Invezz

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Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan targets India’s trade surplus and key industries

President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policy, among the most protectionist in nearly a century, is set to introduce “reciprocal tariffs” from April 2.

The move is aimed at addressing what Trump’s administration describes as an “unfair and unbalanced” global trading system, particularly targeting nations with trade surpluses against the US.

India, which has maintained a strong trade surplus with the US, is expected to face intense pressure under the new policy.

The plan, first outlined in the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” grants the US president authority to impose tariffs on countries that charge higher import duties on American goods than the US does on theirs.

With India’s automotive and agricultural tariffs significantly higher than US rates, these sectors are likely to be primary targets.

The strategy appears designed to force India to open its market to more American exports, particularly in industries where the US is seeking to expand its global footprint.

US seeks to expand auto exports with reciprocal tariffs

One of the main sectors under scrutiny is India’s automotive market, where high import tariffs have long been a sticking point in trade negotiations.

India imposes tariffs exceeding 100% on some categories of vehicles, a policy that the Trump administration sees as a barrier to American auto manufacturers.

The US was the second-largest passenger car producer in 2023 and ranked fifth in global car exports.

However, American companies have struggled to compete with leading exporters from Europe and China.

The reciprocal tariffs plan is seen as a strategy to push India into lowering its automobile import duties, which would create additional demand for US-made vehicles.

Given that India is one of the fastest-growing automotive markets, American automakers stand to benefit significantly if trade barriers are reduced.

Agricultural trade expected to be a key battleground

The US agricultural sector is another likely focal point of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy.

The US remains one of the largest exporters of key agricultural commodities such as maize, wheat, and soybeans.

While American wheat exports have declined in recent years, the US still dominates the maize market and remains the second-largest soybean exporter after Brazil.

India has traditionally maintained high agricultural tariffs to protect its domestic farmers, but this has limited US access to the market.

The Trump administration’s push for reciprocal tariffs suggests it will attempt to force India to lower these trade barriers, making it easier for American agricultural exports to enter the country.

The move could have wide-reaching implications for India’s farming sector, which employs a significant portion of the population and has been resistant to opening up to foreign competition.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals could also face pressure

While agriculture and automobiles have been highlighted as key areas of concern, the reciprocal tariffs policy could extend to other industries where the US has significant trade interests.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals are among the sectors that could come under scrutiny due to the existing tariff differentials between India and the US.

India’s pharmaceutical industry is a crucial global player, particularly in the generic drug market.

Nearly half of all generic medicines consumed in the US originate from India, according to IQVIA.

These medicines saved American consumers an estimated $219 billion in healthcare costs in 2022 alone.

The imposition of reciprocal tariffs could disrupt this supply chain, leading to higher costs for US consumers while also impacting India’s pharmaceutical exports.

Electronics, another sector where India has seen rapid growth, could also face increased tariffs.

The US remains a major exporter of high-tech goods, and Trump’s administration could use reciprocal tariffs as leverage to gain better access to the Indian market.

Reciprocal tariffs could reshape US-India trade relations

The implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy is likely to mark a turning point in US-India trade relations.

While the US aims to reduce its trade deficit, the strategy carries risks for both economies.

India may respond with retaliatory measures, potentially affecting American exporters that rely on the Indian market.

Trade wars often result in increased costs for consumers and businesses, and the impact of the reciprocal tariffs will depend on how aggressively they are enforced.

With India’s growing economic importance, the outcome of this policy could shape the future of trade dynamics between the two nations.

The post Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan targets India’s trade surplus and key industries appeared first on Invezz

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USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions

The USD/ZAR exchange rate retreated on Monday morning as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. It dropped to a low of 18.20, 5.40% below the highest level this year as focus shifts to the upcoming Fed and South Africa interest rate decision. 

US and South Africa tensions

The US and South Africa are in a bitter feud that may have major implications in the future. The root cause of these issues is a lawsuit that South Africa filed in the ICC against Israel.

In January, Donald Trump accused South Africa of discriminating against the white population after a bill on land issues passed. The bill made it legal for the US to take largely unused land and pay a fair price. 

These tensions escalated during the weekend as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was not welcome to the United States. He called him a “race-baiting politician who hates America and Trump.”

There is a risk that the US will implement some tariffs or sanctions against South Africa. Such a move would disrupt trade volumes worth over $25.5 billion annually.

Fed and SARB interest rate decision

The next key catalyst for the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be the upcoming Federal Reserve and South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decisions. 

Economists expect that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. It will then maintain the view that it will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation moves towards 2%.

The Fed is concerned that Donald Trump is engineering a self-inflicted recession by implementing tariffs. As a result, the Atlanta FedNow data estimates that the US economy will contract by about 2.4% this month. 

The Fed is also concerned about inflation. While last week’s US inflation report was encouraging, it did not include Trump’s tariffs. Analysts anticipate that inflation will reman high as companies adjust for tariffs.

The USD/ZAR exchange rate will also react to the upcoming South Africa interest rates. Recent data showed that the country’s inflation has risen in the past few months. It jumped to 3.2% in January, the highest point since September last year.

The country’s statistics agency will publish the latest inflation data on March 19, and analysts anticipate the figure to come in at 3.4%. 

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It dropped from a high of 19.218 in February to the current 18.20. This decline happened as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. 

The pair has formed a falling wedge chart pattern, which is characterized by two falling and converging trendlines. These two lines are now nearing their confluence levels. 

The USD/ZAR pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern too. Therefore, there is a likelihood that it will bounce back and possibly hit the key resistance level at 19.21, its highest level this year, which is about 5.6% from the current level.

The post USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions appeared first on Invezz

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USD/JPY forecast: signal ahead of FOMC and BoJ decisions

The USD/JPY exchange rate tilted upwards on Monday morning as investors focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. It rose to a high of 148.75, up from this month’s low of 146.56.

Bank of Japan interest rate decision

The BoJ will be one of the top central banks to watch this week as it delivered its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

This will be a crucial meeting since the bank has signaled that it will maintain a hawkish tone as its battle against inflation intensifies. 

Data released in February showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.6% in December to 4.0% in January. It has been on a gradual increase after bottoming at 2.3% a few months ago. 

Economists expect this week’s data to show that Japan’s inflation rose modestly in February.

Japan’s inflation has risen because of the low unemployment rate that has led to higher wages in the country. 

The base case is where the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged this week as officials observe the implications of Donald Trump’s trade war. Trump has threatened to implement reciprocal tariffs, which may hurt Japan’s economy. 

Fed decision ahead

The next catalyst for the USD/JPY pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled on Wednesday. 

Like with the BoJ, economists expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 4.5%. It will then hint that it will deliver more interest rate cuts later this year.

The Fed’s biggest concern is that the US inflation has remained at an elevated level for longer than expected. 

Data released last week showed that US inflation dropped from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Core inflation fell from 3.3% to 3.1% during the month. 

These inflation numbers, while encouraging, don’t tell the full story about inflation since they did not include Trump’s tariffs. 

Therefore, the Fed will leave rates unchanged as it continues to observe the implications of these tariffs on the US economy. 

There will be other top US macro data to watch this week, but their implications on the Fed will be muted. 

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen in the past few days. It rose from a low of 146.57 this month to the current 148.91. 

The pair remains slightly above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since September last year.

It has now crossed the crucial resistance level at 148.67, the lowest swing in December last year. 

The USD/JPY pair’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have pointed upwards. 

Therefore, the USD to JPY will likely resume the downward trend as traders target the next key support at 145. A move above the resistance at 150 will invalidate the bearish USD/JPY forecast.

The post USD/JPY forecast: signal ahead of FOMC and BoJ decisions appeared first on Invezz

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USD/CHF analysis: forms bearish pattern ahead of SNB, FOMC

The USD/CHF exchange rate moved sideways on Monday morning as focus among investors shifted from the upcoming Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Federal Reserve interest rates decisions. It rose to a high of 0.8845, a few points above this month’s low of 0.8757.

Swiss National Bank rate decision

The USD to CHF exchange rate wavered on Monday morning ahead of the upcoming SNB decision. 

Economists polled by Reuters expect the bank to deliver another interest rate cut this week as concerns about the Swiss franc’s strength continue. 

The Swiss franc has risen by almost 4% from its lowest point this year against the US dollar. It has, however, softened a bit against the euro, with the EUR/CHF pair rising to a high of 0.9500, its highest level since July last year. 

The SNB will also cut rates because Swiss inflation has continued falling in the past few months. Data from the statistics agency showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 0.3% in February from 0.6% a month earlier. 

The Swiss CPI has been in a downward trend after peaking at 3.5% in 2022. There are also signs that the country’s inflation will drop below zero in the next few months. 

Read more: USD/CHF forecast: Here’s why the Swiss franc is surging

As such, the SNB hopes that these rate cuts will help to incentivize spending in the country and lift prices higher. 

Odds of the SNB cut are evident in the Swiss government bonds. Data shows that the ten-year yield of Swiss government bonds dropped to 0.677% down from this month’s high of 0.90%. The five-year yield dropped to 0.56% from the YTD high of 0.637%.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision

The USD/CHF exchange rate will also react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. 

Economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% for the second consecutive meeting. 

In its last meeting, the bank signaled that it would deliver just two interest rates this year. 

That meeting, however, happened before Donald Trump restarted his trade war. Since that meeting, Trump has gone to a serious trade conflict with countries like Mexico, Canada, and China. Trump has also hinted that he will implement reciprocal tariffs in April. 

These tariffs will likely lead to a slow US economy, with the FedNow data showing that the economy will contract by 2.4% in this first quarter. 

US bond yields have also dropped in the past few months. The 10-year yield dropped from the year-to-date high of 4.80% to 4.30%. Similarly, the 30-year yield has moved from 5% to 4.61%.

The US and Swiss bond yields mean that investors are borrowing the cheap franc and investing in the US. 

USD/CHF technical analysis

USDCHF chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to CHF exchange rate has retreated in the past few months. It has dropped from a high of 0.9200 this year to the current 0.8845. 

The pair has dropped to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also formed a bearish flag chart and a rising wedge. 

The USD/CHF pair is about to form a mini death cross as the 50-day and 100-day moving averages cross each other. 

Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bearish, with the next point to watch being at 0.8762. A break below that level will point to further downside, potentially to the 61.8% retracement at 0.8590. 

The post USD/CHF analysis: forms bearish pattern ahead of SNB, FOMC appeared first on Invezz

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Business

Micron stock price forecast: will it rise or fall after earnings?

Micron stock price has been boring since July last year. MU has remained between the key support and resistance levels at $114.40 and $84.58, respectively. It remains about 35% below the highest level in 2024. So, what is the MU stock price forecast ahead of its quarterly earnings?

Micron stock price waits for earnings

Micron Technology and other semiconductor companies have done well in the past few years, helped by increased corporate spending because of AI. Its annual revenue jumped from $15 billion in 2022 to over $25 billion in the last financial year. The trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue jumped to over $29 billion.

The last quarterly results showed that Micron’s revenue surged to $8.7 billion in Q3, a big increase from the $4.73 billion it shipped in the same quarter a year earlier. This revenue growth happened because of its strong data center business whose revenue moved to 50% of its total figure for the first time. 

Micron became more profitable as the net loss jumped to over $1.87 billion during the quarter. 

On the positive side, the company will likely continue doing well this year as companies like Microsoft, xAI, and Amazon are keen on accelerating their AI spending. Estimates are that the top companies will spend over $320 billion this year. 

The challenge, however, is that there are signs that the AI bubble may be starting to burst. This explains why many AI stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, SoundHound, and C3.ai have crashed this year. 

Further, there are concerns that the ongoing trade war between the US and China will impact Micron’s results. Historically, Micron generated about 25% of its sales from Chinese companies. This has changed after the company was forced to end some of its trading relationships with Chinese companies.

Analysts see more MU earnings growth

Wall Street analysts expect the upcoming results to show that Micron’s business continued doing well in the last quarter. 

The average estimate is that Micron’s revenue rose by 36% in the second quarter of financial year 2025 to $7.92 billion. 

They also see the forward guidance for the next quarter being 21.73% to $8.29 billion. For the year, Micron’s revenue is expected to be almost $35 billion, up by almost 40% to $35 billion. This growth will slow to 28% to $44.7 billion. 

A potential catalyst for the Micron stock price is that the consumer business, which has weakened in the past few years may start to grow again this year. Reports by companies like IDC and Gartner estimate that the PC industry will see a modest single-digit growth trajectory this year. 

The other catalyst is that Micron has become an undervalued company, considering that its business is still growing. It has a non-GAAP forward P/E ratio of 14.7, much lower than the sector median of 21. The forward GAAP multiple of 16.4 is lower than the median of 26.

Micron stock price analysis

MU stock chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the MU share price has remained in a tight range in the past few months. It has remained between the support and resistance levels at $85 and $114.4 since July last year. 

Micron stock is consolidating at the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The two lines of the MACD indicators have pointed upwards. 

Therefore, the Micron stock price will likely move in either direction after its earnings. The key levels to watch will be at $85 and $115. The odds are high that the latter will prevail because the average Micron stock price forecast is $129. 

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President Trump says he will talk to Putin on Tuesday about rnding the ar in Ukraine

US President Donald Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One during a late-night flight from Florida to Washington, Trump indicated that negotiations had been ongoing over the weekend.

“I’ll be speaking to President Putin on Tuesday. A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” Trump said.

We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”

Trump is pushing for a 30-day ceasefire, a proposal that Ukraine accepted last week. However, fighting has continued, with both sides engaging in heavy aerial strikes over the weekend.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have made gains near the western Russian region of Kursk, where Ukrainian troops have been holding positions for months.

Addressing potential concessions, Trump stated, “We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants.”

He suggested that discussions between Ukraine and Russia had already covered key points regarding territorial adjustments and control over assets.

Trump’s efforts to stop the war

Trump’s efforts to negotiate a ceasefire come as his administration has taken a different approach to US policy on Russia.

He has previously expressed frustration with Ukraine, describing it as more difficult to work with than Russia.

Last month, a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ended on tense terms, with Zelenskiy departing the White House earlier than scheduled.

Ukraine’s acceptance of the ceasefire proposal has shifted pressure onto Russia, testing whether Trump’s approach to Putin can yield diplomatic results.

The Russian president, who launched the invasion of Ukraine three years ago, has not yet publicly responded to the latest proposal.

This comes after Trump addressed his earlier campaign trail promises to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours.

In an interview for the television program Full Measure last week, he clarified that his statements had been partly sarcastic.

“What I really mean is I’d like to get it settled, and I think I’ll be successful,” Trump said.

As Trump’s administration continues efforts to broker a resolution 54 days into his second term, Tuesday’s call with Putin is expected to be a pivotal moment in determining whether progress can be made toward halting the conflict.

This would mark the second publicly disclosed call between the two leaders since Trump began his second term in January.

Trump and Putin previously spoke in February, during which they agreed to initiate high-level talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

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USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions

The USD/ZAR exchange rate retreated on Monday morning as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. It dropped to a low of 18.20, 5.40% below the highest level this year as focus shifts to the upcoming Fed and South Africa interest rate decision. 

US and South Africa tensions

The US and South Africa are in a bitter feud that may have major implications in the future. The root cause of these issues is a lawsuit that South Africa filed in the ICC against Israel.

In January, Donald Trump accused South Africa of discriminating against the white population after a bill on land issues passed. The bill made it legal for the US to take largely unused land and pay a fair price. 

These tensions escalated during the weekend as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was not welcome to the United States. He called him a “race-baiting politician who hates America and Trump.”

There is a risk that the US will implement some tariffs or sanctions against South Africa. Such a move would disrupt trade volumes worth over $25.5 billion annually.

Fed and SARB interest rate decision

The next key catalyst for the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be the upcoming Federal Reserve and South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decisions. 

Economists expect that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. It will then maintain the view that it will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation moves towards 2%.

The Fed is concerned that Donald Trump is engineering a self-inflicted recession by implementing tariffs. As a result, the Atlanta FedNow data estimates that the US economy will contract by about 2.4% this month. 

The Fed is also concerned about inflation. While last week’s US inflation report was encouraging, it did not include Trump’s tariffs. Analysts anticipate that inflation will reman high as companies adjust for tariffs.

The USD/ZAR exchange rate will also react to the upcoming South Africa interest rates. Recent data showed that the country’s inflation has risen in the past few months. It jumped to 3.2% in January, the highest point since September last year.

The country’s statistics agency will publish the latest inflation data on March 19, and analysts anticipate the figure to come in at 3.4%. 

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It dropped from a high of 19.218 in February to the current 18.20. This decline happened as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. 

The pair has formed a falling wedge chart pattern, which is characterized by two falling and converging trendlines. These two lines are now nearing their confluence levels. 

The USD/ZAR pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern too. Therefore, there is a likelihood that it will bounce back and possibly hit the key resistance level at 19.21, its highest level this year, which is about 5.6% from the current level.

The post USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions appeared first on Invezz

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USD/JPY forecast: signal ahead of FOMC and BoJ decisions

The USD/JPY exchange rate tilted upwards on Monday morning as investors focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. It rose to a high of 148.75, up from this month’s low of 146.56.

Bank of Japan interest rate decision

The BoJ will be one of the top central banks to watch this week as it delivered its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.

This will be a crucial meeting since the bank has signaled that it will maintain a hawkish tone as its battle against inflation intensifies. 

Data released in February showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 3.6% in December to 4.0% in January. It has been on a gradual increase after bottoming at 2.3% a few months ago. 

Economists expect this week’s data to show that Japan’s inflation rose modestly in February.

Japan’s inflation has risen because of the low unemployment rate that has led to higher wages in the country. 

The base case is where the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged this week as officials observe the implications of Donald Trump’s trade war. Trump has threatened to implement reciprocal tariffs, which may hurt Japan’s economy. 

Fed decision ahead

The next catalyst for the USD/JPY pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled on Wednesday. 

Like with the BoJ, economists expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 4.5%. It will then hint that it will deliver more interest rate cuts later this year.

The Fed’s biggest concern is that the US inflation has remained at an elevated level for longer than expected. 

Data released last week showed that US inflation dropped from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Core inflation fell from 3.3% to 3.1% during the month. 

These inflation numbers, while encouraging, don’t tell the full story about inflation since they did not include Trump’s tariffs. 

Therefore, the Fed will leave rates unchanged as it continues to observe the implications of these tariffs on the US economy. 

There will be other top US macro data to watch this week, but their implications on the Fed will be muted. 

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen in the past few days. It rose from a low of 146.57 this month to the current 148.91. 

The pair remains slightly above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since September last year.

It has now crossed the crucial resistance level at 148.67, the lowest swing in December last year. 

The USD/JPY pair’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages have formed a bearish crossover. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have pointed upwards. 

Therefore, the USD to JPY will likely resume the downward trend as traders target the next key support at 145. A move above the resistance at 150 will invalidate the bearish USD/JPY forecast.

The post USD/JPY forecast: signal ahead of FOMC and BoJ decisions appeared first on Invezz

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