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The renminbi is performing well as the Chinese economy continues to thrive. The USD/CNY exchange rate plunged to a low of 7.1300, its lowest level since November last year and 3% below its highest level this year.

Chinese yuan gains momentum 

The USD/CNY pair continued falling last week, helped by the Chinese economy, the roaring stock market, and the falling US dollar.

Data released on Sunday showed that the Chinese manufacturing and services sectors continued improving in August.

The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.3 in July to 49.4 in August, higher than the median estimate of 49.2. While a PMI figure of below 50 is a sign of contraction, the fact that it is moving upwards is a good indicator.

The report showed that the non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.1 in July to 50.3 in August, helping to push the general PMI up from 50.2 to 50.5.

Recent data has shown that the Chinese economy was doing well in spite of the ongoing trade war with the United States.

A report by the statistics agency showed that the Chinese economy grew by 5.2% in the second quarter, down from 5.4% in the first one. This growth was driven by the rising exports as American companies rushed to buy products before Trump’s tariffs.

The first and second quarter data means that the Chinese economy will likely grow at a faster pace than the planned 5%. 

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan has also done well as the stock market has surged in the past few months. The Shanghai Composite has soared to its highest level in years, thanks to increased participation by retail investors.

US Dollar Index weakness 

The USD/CNY exchange rate has plunged because of the ongoing US dollar weakness. Data shows that the DXY Index has plunged from the year-to-date high of $110 to below $98 as the economy has continued to struggle.

Recent data showed that the US economy grew by 3.3% in the second quarter. While this was an improvement, it came after the economy contracted in Q1 as the Chinese one grew.

The US labor market has deteriorated, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in July. It created just 73,000 jobs in July, and analysts expect it to have added 78k in August.

Therefore, analysts expect the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates at its upcoming meeting in September.

USD/CNY technical analysis 

USD/CNY chart by TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD/CNY exchange rate has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. It has crashed from a high of 7.3498 in April to the current 7.1300, its lowest level since November last year.

It recently plunged below the important support level at 7.1480, its lowest level on July 24. Moving below that level confirmed the bearish breakout.

The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which formed a death cross in June.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support level at 7.010. Such a move will signal a 1.68% drop below the current level.

The post USD/CNY forecast as China’s renminbi growth accelerated appeared first on Invezz

The Turkish lira continued its strong plunge this month, reaching its all-time low. The USD/TRY exchange rate rose to 41.15, up by over 41% from its lowest level in January this year.

Improving the Turkish economy 

The USD/TRY exchange rate has surged this year, even as macro data showed that the country’s economy was doing relatively well.

Inflation, which has been a major issue in the past few months, has made some improvement in the past few months. A recent report by the statistics agency showed the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 33.52% in July from 35% in June.

While the 33.5% inflation rate is huge, it is notable for two main factors. First, it has been in a downward trajectory for 14 consecutive months after it peaked at over 70% in 2023.

Second, the inflation plunge happened after the central bank slashed interest rates. It moved the benchmark interest rate to 43% in July, a 300 basis points cut. This cut means that the bank has erased the 350 basis point increase in April when political factors triggered a lira plunge.

The USD/TRY will react to the upcoming Turkish inflation data. Economists expect the report to show that the headline Consumer Price Index fell from 33.5% in July to 32.6% in August this year.

The monthly inflation figure is expected to come in at 1.79% from 2.06%, a sign that prices are moving in the right direction. Similarly, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to come in at 23.5% from the previous 24.19%.

The other major catalyst for the USD/TRY will be the upcoming Turkish GDP data on Monday. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the Turkish economy expanded by 4% in Q2, up from 2% in the previous quarter.

In a recent statement, the finance minister expects that the economy will grow by 4% this year, higher than the median estimate of 2.8% among analysts. Top credit rating agencies have upgraded their credit rating.

The USD/TRY exchange rate has jumped, even as the US dollar index continues to plunge, moving from a high of $110 in January to $98.

The pair is often seen as a good carry trade opportunity because of the interest rate differential between the United States and Turkey. With the US interest rates at 4.50% and Turkey’s being above 30%, investors are borrowing the greenback to invest in Turkey.

The other important catalysts for the USD/TRY exchange rate will be the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday. This report will provide more information about the health of the labor market and influence the next interest rate decision.

USD/TRY technical analysis 

USD/TRY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD/TRY exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend this year and is now hovering at its all-time high.

It has constantly remained above all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index is at the overbought level.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising in the coming weeks as investors predict that the CBRT will continue cutting interest rates in the coming months. If this happens, the pair will keep rising and reach 42.

The post USD/TRY forecast ahead of Turkey GDP and inflation data appeared first on Invezz

The USD/JPY exchange rate remained in a consolidation phase last week as traders focused on the upcoming actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. It was trading at 147, where it has remained in the past few days. It has dropped by over 7.5% from the year-to-date high.

US nonfarm payrolls data

The USD/JPY exchange rate was unchanged as traders wait for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by just 78,000 in August, a slight improvement from the 73,000 it added in the previous month

Based on the recent trends, it is likely that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will downgrade the estimate of the July jobs report. In its last report, it downgraded the May and June jobs reports to show that the economy created an average of 35,000 jobs in May and June.

The upcoming jobs report is important because it is what the Federal Reserve is focusing on when making it interest rates. If the jobs numbers come short of expectations, they will boost the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%.

On the other hand, recent data sent mixed signals on the Japanese economy. In Tokyo, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6% in July, while the core CPI jumped 3.0%.

Tokyo’s inflation eased mostly because of the government’s subsidies, suggesting that things are not going on well. The tight labor market means that inflation will remain at an elevated level for a while. 

At the same time, the country’s industrial production is weakening, complicating the BoJ’s outlook. In a note, analysts at ING wrote that:

“We continue to believe that the Bank of Japan will deliver a 25 hike in October thanks to reduced uncertainty over US tariffs and firm inflation. But the BoJ’s concern about weak growth may have increased after today’s weak activity data.”

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged in the past few days. It has slumped from a high of 150, its highest point in July to the current 147. 

The pair has formed a bearish flag chart pattern, which is comprised of a vertical line and an ascending channel. It has formed an inverse cup-and-handle pattern. 

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at 145.

The post USD/JPY forecast ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data appeared first on Invezz

The Indian state of Madhya Pradesh handed out some massive power plant contracts worth about $3.7 billion, and it’s all going to coal.

Adani Power and Torrent Power are splitting up 2,400 MW of new coal capacity, with Torrent getting the bigger piece, a 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical plant, while Adani gets an 800 MW facility.

This is part of India’s aggressive plan to add 80 GW of coal power by 2032, which might sound contradictory given all the talk about renewable energy.

But the reality is India’s electricity demand is growing so fast that they’re basically saying, “we need everything we can get.”

Torrent, Adani power up big

Torrent Power officially got the green light from MP Power Management Company to build that massive 1,600 MW coal plant. They’re putting up about $2.5 billion to build this thing from scratch, using two 800 MW ultra-supercritical units.

The deal is pretty straightforward: Torrent will sell all the power exclusively to MPPMCL for 25 years at Rs 5.829 per kilowatt-hour.

That’s a locked-in revenue stream for the next quarter-century, which is exactly the kind of certainty power companies love when they’re making billion-dollar investments.

One major advantage for Torrent is that they don’t have to worry about securing coal supplies.

Under the government’s SHAKTI Policy, MPPMCL will handle getting the coal to the plant, which removes a major headache and cost from Torrent’s plate.

The timeline is ambitious but doable, as they have 72 months from when they sign the power purchase agreement to get the plant up and running.

Adani Power got the smaller piece of the pie but still a significant one, an 800 MW coal plant that’ll cost them about $1.2 billion.

What’s notable is this is their fourth big power contract in just the past year, showing they’re really pushing hard to expand their footprint across India.

Both companies are going with ultra-supercritical technology, which is basically the cleanest way to burn coal these days.

It’s more efficient than older coal plants and puts out fewer emissions per unit of electricity generated. It’s not exactly green energy, but it’s about as clean as coal gets.

Modi’s massive coal expansion plan

The PM Modi-led Indian government has set an ambitious target when it comes to power generation.

They want to add 80 GW of new coal capacity by 2032, which would push India’s total coal power to over 290 GW. That’s more than a one-third jump from where they are now.

India’s electricity demand is growing sharply as the economy expands and more people get access to power. Renewable energy is great, but solar and wind don’t work when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Coal might not be popular with environmental groups, but it provides that 24/7 baseload power that keeps the grid stable.

India’s been burned before by power shortages that hurt economic growth, so they’re clearly prioritizing energy security over environmental concerns.

The post Adani, Torrent land mega coal deals in India’s energy gamble appeared first on Invezz

US stocks, as represented by the benchmark S&P 500 index, have done exceptionally well since the start of 2025. Still, a handful of them are currently in the oversold territory.

For investors, this could mean opportunity, particularly because a few of these oversold names are now flashing buy signals.

Plus, with investors now betting on a possible rate cut in September, technical indicators suggest three heavily sold-off names- Keurig Dr Pepper, Charter Communications, and Hormel Foods – are poised for a significant rebound ahead.

Each has dipped below the critical “30” threshold on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a level often associated with oversold conditions and potential upside.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (NASDAQ: KDP)

Keurig Dr Pepper has taken a steep tumble, shedding over 17% this week following the announcement to acquire Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet’s in a deal valued at $18 billion.

The market reacted harshly, with HSBC downgrading the stock, citing the acquisition’s hefty price tag and increased leverage.

Analyst Sorabh Daga noted, “We don’t think KDP needed to lever itself up to 6-8x net debt/reported EBITDA to exit the Keurig coffee business.”

Yet, the deal isn’t without merit. The company expects $400 million in cost savings over 3 years and plans to split its beverage and coffee divisions into separate public entities.

With an RSI of 29 and Wall Street analysts projecting a 29% upside on average, KDP shares may be brewing a comeback.

Charter Communications Inc (NASDAQ: CHTR)

Charter Communications, the parent of Spectrum internet services, has seen its shares slide more than 4% this week, continuing a trend of investor skepticism.

Despite secular headwinds, Bernstein recently upgraded the stock to “outperform,” citing its undervalued price.

Analyst Laurent Yoon acknowledged the challenges but remained optimistic: “When something is cheap, it’s cheap for a reason… but we are looking ahead to CHTR’s narrative for ’26.”

With an RSI signaling oversold territory and the mean price target suggesting a potential 54% rally, Charter Communications stock may be nearing a turning point.

If the company can navigate its structural issues, the current weakness could represent a compelling entry point.

Hormel Foods Corp (NYSE: HRL)

Hormel Foods, known for its packaged meats and pantry staples, suffered a sharp 13% drop after disappointing third-quarter earnings.

The miss rattled investors, pushing the stock into oversold territory.

While the results were underwhelming, Hormel’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by its strong brand portfolio and defensive positioning in consumer staples.

The RSI now sits below 30, and analysts see room for recovery as the company adjusts its pricing strategy and cost structure.

For contrarian investors, Hormel stock’s recent plunge may offer a rare opportunity to buy a stable name at a big discount – especially if inflationary pressures ease and margins begin to normalize.

The post These 3 oversold stocks are primed for significant gains appeared first on Invezz

Alibaba stock price surged to its highest level in March as Chinese equities surged after it published strong financial results on Friday. BABA also jumped after reports showed that it had developed a chip that could challenge NVIDIA. It rose to a high of $136.42, up by 71% from its lowest level this year.

Alibaba to challenge NVIDIA

The Alibaba stock price surged after the WSJ reported that the company had developed a chip that may challenge NVIDIA’s dominance. Most notably, the chip will be fabricated by a local Chinese company instead of TSMC. 

The new milestone comes as the US and China continue battling for technology dominance and as chips become the most important part of the global economy. 

The US has blocked Nvidia and its chip companies, like AMD and Intel, from selling advanced chips to China. It argues that these chips may help the Chinese military develop more advanced equipment. 

China has then gone to the offensive and invested billions of dollars to develop advanced chips. Just recently, the government recommended its companies against buying NVIDIA’s H20 chips after the administration gave it a go-ahead. 

Therefore, the BABA stock price surged as investors anticipated that it would become the next big player in the AI and semiconductor industry. 

Alibaba published modest results

The Alibaba stock price also jumped after the company published modest financial results. Its revenue rose by 2% to $34.5 billion in the second quarter.

Notably, excluding Sun Art and Intime, which the company has disposed of, its revenue growth would have been 10%. The net income jumped by 76% to over $4.8 billion, helped by its equity investments and gains from divested businesses.

The closely-watched Cloud Intelligence Group, which competes with Amazon’s AWS and Microsoft’s Azure, grew by 26% YoY to $4.6 billion as it continued to benefit from the AI demand.

Alibaba’s International Digital Commerce revenue rose by 19% YoY despite Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Chinese e-commerce business made $12.5 billion, a 10% YoY increase. 

However, the company’s Ele.me has come under pressure as competition from JD and Meituan jump. JD’s entry into the sector has led to a race to the bottom, with surging consumer discounts and rider incentives.

China stocks gains and Banma Network IPO

The Alibaba stock price has jumped because of the ongoing surge in Chinese shares as shown by the performance of the Shanghai Composite and equities like Cambricon

This stock rebound is mostly because Chinese investors have continued to turn to the market after the collapse of the real estate sector.

Alibaba shares have also jumped after the company decided to spin off its Banma Network Technology, which focuses on creating smart vehicle operating systems and cockpit solutions.

Alibaba stock price forecast

BABA stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the BABA stock price has rebounded in the past few months, moving from a low of $78.9 in January to $135. It has already crossed the important resistance level at $132, the highest swing on May 14. 

The BABA stock price has jumped above all moving averages, while top oscillators have pointed upwards. Therefore, the stock will likely keep rising as bulls target the key resistance level at $146, its highest point on March 17. A move above that level will point to more gains, potentially to the resistance point at $150. 

The post Here’s why the Alibaba stock price has gone parabolic appeared first on Invezz

The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices and their ETFs moved sideways last week as investors focused on monetary policy and Nvidia earnings. The S&P 500 Index pulled back to $6,460 from the year-to-date high of $6,500.

Similarly, the Dow Jones Index was trading at $45,545, while the Nasdaq 100 fell from $23,965 to a low of $23,415. This article looks at the top catalysts for the indices and the ETFs like VOO, DIA, and QQQ.

US nonfarm payrolls data

The most important catalyst for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices is the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled on Friday.

This is an important report that will provide more color on the health of the American economy and will help to determine what the Federal Reserve will do in the next meeting. 

In a recent statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, hinted that the bank will cut interest rates in September, citing the deteriorating labor market. 

The last report showed that the economy created just 73,000 jobs in July, much lower than what analysts were expecting. This figure will likely be downgraded further based on what happened recently. Traders will want to see the revision. 

The indices and their ETFs will also react to the unemployment rate. Data shows that analyts anticipate that the jobless rate rose to 4.3% in August as the economy created 78k jobs.

A weak jobs report will confirm that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which most analysts already expect. The stock market tends to do well when the Fed is cutting interest rates.

Donld Trump tariffs in limbo

The other major catalyst for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 is the latest appeal decision on Donald Trump’s tariffs. In a ruling, a bench found that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, a move that the stock market would welcome. 

However, the court allowed the tariffs to remain, and the Trump administration appealed. Most analysts believe that the case will go all the way to the Supreme Court, which may side with the administration. 

Corporate earnings

The other minor catalysts for the indices and their ETFs will be corporate earnings. Just a handful of companies will publish their earnings, including names like Carnival, McCormick, Nike, Constellation Brands, and Lamb Weston.

The recent earnings season was highly successful. A report by FactSet shows that 98% of all companies in the S&P 500 Index have published their earnings. Of these 81% of them published an earnings beat, while the earnings growth was 11.9%. This was the third straight quarter of double-digit growth.

Top economic data

Another minor catalyst for the US stock market will be macro data from the United States and other countries. The top data to watch will be the final manufacturing and services PMI, JOLTs job vacancies, and ADP private sector data. 

While important, their impact on the stock market will be muted since all eyes will be on the nonfarm payroll (NFP) data.

The post Top catalysts for S&P 500 (VOO), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Dow Jones (DIA) next week appeared first on Invezz

Marvell stock price plummeted by over 18% on Friday after the semiconductor giant published its earnings report. MRVL plunged to a low of $62.87, its lowest level since June 4, and 26% from its highest point this month. So, is it safe to buy the MRVL stock dip or wait for it to plunge further?

Marvell stock plunged after earnings

Marvell Technology’s stock price plummeted even after the company published strong financial results. Its revenue surged by 58% in the second quarter to a record $2 billion.

This revenue growth was driven primarily by the tailwinds in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and the recovery of it enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure businesses.

AI data center revenue jumped by 70% to $1.4 billion, a trend that may continue as it continues to reach large deals. Its enterprise and carrier revenye rose by 43%, a strong improvement considering that it has been in a slowdown in the past few quarters. 

Marvell’s revenue growth was accompanied by its margin expansion. Gross margin rose to 50.4% from the previous 50.3%, while the operating margin rose to 14.5%. This helped to push its net profit up by 120% to $585 million. The CEO said:

“Marvell’s growth is being fueled by strong AI demand for our custom silicon and electro-optics products, as well as a significant increase in the pace of recovery in our enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure end markets.”

The main reason why the Marvell stock price crashed is that the managment’s forward guidance was weaker than expected. Its guidance was that its revenue for the third quarter will be $2.06 billion, a 36% increase from the same period last year. 

While a 36% annual growth is a good one, it was lower than what analysts were expecting. Historically, Marvell tends to be highly conservative, meaning that its real numbers will likely be better than estimates. 

Marvell stock price also plunged after Nvidia, a top player in the chip industry, warned that its business was slowing. Also, there is a fear that some Chinese companies will disrupt the semiconductor industry. 

MRVL stock price technical analysis

Marvell stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily timeframe chart shows that the MRVL stock price has plunged from its highest point in January, when its market cap overtook that of Intel. 

It plunged from a high of $127.30 in January to a low of $47.50 in April. Most recently, the stock formed an ascending channel, which was part of its bearish flag pattern. It has moved below the lower side of this pattern.

Marvell stock price has moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has moved to the strong, pivot, reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. 

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the Marvell stock price continues plunging, potentially to the year-to-date low of $47.50. It will then bounce back later this year.

Read more: JPM says ignore earnings noise and buy Marvell stock like there’s no tomorrow

The post Is it safe to buy the Marvell stock price dip or sell the rip? appeared first on Invezz

Nukkleus Inc (NASDAQ: NUKK) soared over 40% this morning after announcing a strategic joint venture with “Mandragola” aimed at modernising aviation infrastructure across Europe and Israel.

The deal broadens NUKK’s presence in the fast-growing aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market, which was valued at about $110 billion in 2024.

Nukkleus stock has been thoroughly disappointing for investors this year. Despite today’s rally, it’s down more than 80% versus its year-to-date high in late January.

Why Mandragola deal is significant for Nukkleus stock

Teaming up with the Israeli company could prove meaningfully positive for NUKK shares because it positions them to benefit from Europe’s evolving defense landscape.

With geopolitical tensions rising in Eastern Europe, particularly due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, demand for resilient aviation infrastructure is expected to climb.

In fact, the global MRO market is broadly expected to surpass $125 billion valuation over the next ten years, offering ample runway for Nukkleus to scale operations and tap into long-term defence spending cycles.

Note that the Mandragola joint venture will establish advanced aviation hubs in Baltics and Israel, including a NATO-compliant logistics facility in Riga – supporting both military and civil aviation needs.

Recent BladeRanger deal also bode well for NUKK shares

Nukkleus shares are rallying this morning also because the Nasdaq-listed firm signed an exclusive US distribution agreement with another Israeli firm, BladeRanger, on August 26th.

According to the company’s recent press release, it has secured exclusive rights to commercialise BLRN’s surveillance and tactical drone systems across American defence and homeland security markets.

The three-year agreement won Nukkleus exposure to another fast-growing segment within defence technology – “drone payload” – expected to be worth over $33 billion by the end of this decade.

Nukkleus chief executive Menny Shalom called the move “transformative”, adding it aligns with the firm’s broader goal of building a high-tech ecosystem of A&D solutions.

Investors should note that the BladeRanger transaction includes performance-based incentives and minimum purchase commitments as well – signalling a serious push toward revenue generation.

Why Nukkleus shares remain unattractive in 2025

Despite the aforementioned flurry of strategic announcements, Nukkleus stock remains a high-risk investment for the second half of 2025.

Why? NUKK shares do not currently receive coverage from Wall Street analysts, leaving investors with limited visibility into its financial health and growth trajectory.

Moreover, the company based out of Jersey City, NJ, is yet to report consistent profitability, with recent filings showing negative net margins and shareholder dilution.

While the Mandragola and BladeRanger deals offer compelling narratives, they are still early-stage initiatives with execution risk.

Plus, the absence of institutional coverage and unstable financials make it difficult to assess valuation or forecast future performance.

Therefore, NUKK stock may be riding a wave of momentum – but investors should keep one eye on the fundamentals.

The post Nukkleus stock soars on Mandragola deal: sell NUKK before it retreats appeared first on Invezz

Itaú BBA reiterated its buy recommendations on Brazilian pulp and paper manufacturers Suzano (SUZB3) and Klabin (KLBN11), citing attractive valuations after its estimates update based on the companies’ second-quarter results.

According to local media outlet InfoMoney, the analysis took into account a projected appreciation of the real, as per the bank’s macroeconomic team, along with recent corporate moves.

Today, shoppers unlocked the deal for Dai Estt-2i of Suzano, with Kimberly-Clark making a proposal and Klabin giving up a bad investment in sensitive forestry assets.

BBA’s positive medium-term outlook is based on these developments and an anticipated tightening in the global pulp demand-supply balance by 2026.

Pulp prices are projected to be trading in the region of US$580 by this time.

Nonetheless, it noted that this positive backdrop is tempered by a cautious outlook in the short term, with no catalysts to push shares higher in the next six months.

Suzano: Higher target price and acquisition impact

Itaú BBA boosted Suzano’s target price to R$70 per share by the end of 2026 from R$63, reflecting a potential 33% appreciation.

The advice comes despite the bank’s EBITDA outlook for 2026 being around 12% lower than the market consensus.

Suzano’s earnings estimates, however, have moved. The negative effect of the currency rate is now expected to be mitigated by increased EBITDA from the joint venture with Kimberly-Clark, which is scheduled to close in mid-2026.

Even with that rise, Suzano’s projected R$9.5 billion investment to acquire its part in the Kimberly-Clark joint will limit free cash flow in 2026.

Without this spend, the bank forecasts the company’s cash flow return to be 13%. By 2027, the yield is expected to reach 18%, earning more than US$2 billion.

In terms of valuation, Suzano trades at 5.7 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA in 2026, falling to 4.4 by 2027. These multiples reinforce BBA’s upbeat outlook, despite near-term financial headwinds from acquisitions.

Klabin: Discounted valuation, solid cash generation

Itaú BBA maintained a buy recommendation for Klabin, but decreased the target price from R$25 to R$23 per share by the end of 2026. Even with a lower objective, the bank sees a 25% upside potential.

According to the research, Klabin is currently trading at 6.2 times EV/EBITDA for 2026, significantly lower than its historical average range of 8.0 to 8.5 times. According to BBA, this discount makes the stock desirable.

Klabin is estimated to produce an average free cash flow yield of 7% from 2025 to 2027, excluding the Plateau Project.

This amount of cash generation should result in an average dividend yield of 5.5% over the same time period, strengthening the company’s appeal to income-seeking investors.

Sector outlook: Optimism for 2026, challenges before

Itaú BBA’s sector outlook remains cautiously upbeat. The bank expects the global pulp market’s supply-demand balance to improve dramatically by 2026, with prices forecast at US$580 per ton.

This forecast supports its favourable medium-term outlook for both Suzano and Klabin.

At the same time, the institution highlighted the lack of short-term catalysts that could propel shares higher in the near future.

Currency volatility, continued capital commitments, and macroeconomic concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

Long-term value plays

Itaú BBA reiterated its buy calls, citing Suzano and Klabin as attractive entry locations for long-term investors willing to look past short-term challenges.

Suzano’s merger with Kimberly-Clark and Klabin’s rigorous capital allocation through asset sales create strategic levers that might unlock value by 2026 and beyond.

While execution concerns exist, the bank’s revised expectations indicate that both firms are well-positioned to profit from a future rebound in pulp prices and stronger industry fundamentals.

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