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Pursuit of windfall profits by big Western supermarkets on the back of low wholesale prices is causing widespread labour exploitation in the shrimp aquaculture industries of Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, a new investigation published by AP, has found.

The investigation conducted by an alliance of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and the findings provided to the publication, focussed on the three countries which are among the largest producers of shrimp.

The analysis reveals that producers supplying shrimp to top global markets—the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan—have seen earnings drop by as much as 60% from pre-pandemic levels.

The drive to meet supermarket pricing demands has forced producers to cut costs, primarily through labor, resulting in unpaid overtime, wage insecurity, and work that does not meet minimum wage standards.

Report paints a stark picture of shrimp workers

Over 500 interviews were conducted with shrimp workers, supplemented by data from secondary sources, to paint a stark picture of the realities faced by laborers in these countries.

In Vietnam, the report highlights workers peeling and processing shrimp for six or seven days a week in freezing conditions to preserve product quality.

Women, who comprise about 80% of the workforce, are particularly affected. Many of them work long hours—rising as early as 4 am and returning home after 6 pm.

Pregnant women and new mothers are permitted to stop one hour earlier, but conditions remain gruelling.

In India, shrimp workers face even more hazardous conditions.

Researchers from the Corporate Accountability Lab found that the use of highly salinated water, combined with chemicals and toxic algae from hatcheries, contaminates the surrounding environment.

Child labor was also uncovered in some areas, with girls as young as 14 recruited for peeling shrimp.

Unpaid labor is widespread, and many workers are paid below minimum wage, face wage deductions, and work overtime without compensation.

Indonesia presents a similar situation, with wages that have fallen sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shrimp workers, who typically earn $160 per month—below the country’s minimum wage in most regions—are often required to work 12-hour days just to meet basic production targets.

How did supermarkets respond to the investigation?

Some of the world’s largest supermarket chains have been linked to the facilities highlighted in the report, including US retail giants Target, Walmart, and Costco, as well as Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Aldi, and Co-op in Europe.

While Switzerland’s Co-op stated that it maintains a “zero tolerance” policy for labor violations, claiming its producers are paid fair prices, other supermarkets issued more guarded responses.

Germany’s Aldi pointed to independent certification schemes used to ensure responsible sourcing of farmed shrimp, but it did not specifically address pricing practices.

Sainsbury’s deferred to the British Retail Consortium, an industry group, which reaffirmed its members’ commitment to fair pricing and ethical sourcing.

The consortium noted that the welfare of workers in global supply chains is central to purchasing practices.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, however, strongly contested the findings, calling them “unfounded and misleading.”

It emphasized that government policies are in place to protect workers and ensure ethical practices.

Shrimp certification and the hidden labor exploitation model

A critical finding of the report was the role middlemen play in obscuring the source of shrimp, allowing Western supermarkets to maintain ethical commitments without necessarily adhering to them.

According to the report, only about 1,000 of the 2 million shrimp farms in Vietnam, Indonesia, and India are certified by recognized standards such as the Aquaculture Stewardship Council or Best Aquaculture Practices ecolabel.

Given this disparity, it is impossible for certified farms to supply enough shrimp to meet the demand of all the supermarkets claiming to purchase only ethically sourced shrimp.

This gap in certification allows labor exploitation to persist in many parts of the industry.

Can policy changes help improve labor conditions?

According to Katrin Nakamura, who authored the regional report for Sustainability Incubator, Western governments could take more aggressive steps to hold retailers accountable.

Rather than imposing tariffs on suppliers, existing antitrust laws could be used to ensure fair pricing that does not place undue pressure on producers.

She argues that such changes could protect workers while still allowing for competitive pricing for consumers.

In July 2024, the European Union adopted a directive requiring companies to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains.

Furthermore, officials from Indonesia and Vietnam have engaged with the report’s authors to explore potential solutions.

The report concludes by noting that the labor exploitation in the shrimp industry is not confined to specific companies or countries.

Nakamura said:

It is the result of a hidden business model that exploits people for profit.

Improving labor conditions would not necessarily raise prices for consumers but would likely reduce supermarket profit margins, she added.

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled by more than 4% on Monday, driven by a combination of underwhelming industrial production figures and the market’s reaction to the election of new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The steep decline followed the release of mixed economic data, including a 2.8% increase in August retail sales, which slightly surpassed expectations.

Investors were also responding to the political shift, as Ishiba’s victory reshaped the outlook for Japan’s monetary policy, raising concerns about potential interest rate hikes and their impact on the yen and export-heavy sectors.

Nikkei drops 4% as retail sales rise and industrial output slumps

The Nikkei’s 4% drop occurred despite positive retail sales data, which grew by 2.8% in August compared to the same period last year, beating the expected rise of 2.3%.

The optimism was overshadowed by a sharper-than-expected decline in industrial production, which fell by 4.9% year on year in August.

This marks a notable deterioration from the 0.4% decline recorded in July.

The combination of these figures has left investors uncertain about the broader trajectory of Japan’s economy, with the prospect of increased interest rates under Ishiba’s leadership adding further volatility.

August retail sales rise 2.8%

Japan’s retail sales offered a glimmer of hope with a 2.8% year-on-year increase in August, surpassing estimates and continuing an upward trend from July’s 2.7% growth.

Nevertheless, the industrial production sector saw a sharp decline of 4.9%, significantly worse than the previous month’s 0.4% drop.

The mixed economic signals have made it difficult for investors to gauge the strength of Japan’s recovery, especially as industrial activity struggles to regain momentum.

Incoming PM Shigeru Ishiba raises interest rate hike concerns

The election of Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s new prime minister has sparked concerns about potential changes to the country’s monetary policy.

Ishiba’s appointment, following a close contest with Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, could see the Bank of Japan (BOJ) face fewer political obstacles in raising interest rates.

A stronger yen, typically resulting from higher rates, would put additional pressure on Japan’s export-heavy economy, making Japanese goods less competitive in global markets.

Weak yen, strong Chinese market pressure Japan’s economy

Adding to Japan’s challenges, the yen has experienced heightened volatility since Ishiba’s election victory, weakening against the dollar before strengthening after his win.

A strong yen poses challenges for Japan’s exporters, already under pressure from declining industrial production.

Meanwhile, China’s surging stock market—fuelled by stimulus measures—has further exacerbated the situation, putting Japan in an increasingly precarious position as it balances domestic economic challenges with external competition.

China’s stimulus lifts markets, pressures Japan’s Nikkei

While Japan’s Nikkei slumped, China’s CSI 300 saw gains of over 6%, buoyed by the country’s stimulus measures and a better-than-expected PMI reading.

China’s central bank has introduced several policies aimed at reviving its economy, including cutting interest rates and lowering reserve requirements for banks.

The resulting surge in Chinese markets has placed further strain on Japan, as investors shift their attention to the growth potential in China, creating an unfavourable comparison for the Japanese market.

The post How Shigeru Ishiba’s election win is affecting Japan’s stock market and export sector appeared first on Invezz

Baidu (BIDU) stock price has recovered modestly in the past few days, helped by the strong comeback of Chinese and global equities. It surged to a high of $107.67 on Monday, its highest swing since May 20th, and 31% above its lowest point this year. 

Baidu’s rebound has mirrored that of other Chinese tech companies like Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD Holdings.

A large monopoly in China

Baidu is a top Chinese company that operates as a giant monopoly in the search engine industry. 

Its success happened after Google exited the country because of the actions by Beijing such as The Great Firewall.

Over the years, it has grown its market share substantially even as it faces competition from companies like Sogou and 360 Search.

Baidu operates the Baidu App, which has tools like search, feed, and health solutions. Also, it runs Haokan, a platform for user-generated and professional videos, which is comparable to YouTube. It also owns IQYI, another video platform, which competes with Alibaba’s Youku and Tencent Video.

Baidu also runs Baidu Wiki, Baidu Knows, Baidu Post, and Baidu Experience. Additionally, the company has moved into the artificial intelligence (AI) industry through its ERNIE bot. It is also working on a robotaxi business. Baidu also runs other services for business clients like Core, its cloud computing solution. 

Therefore, to a large extent, Baidu’s business model is similar to that of Google, one of the biggest companies in the United States. The challenge, however, is that Alphabet is primarily a global brand with global operations. 

Baidu, on the other hand, is mostly a local company with limited operations in other countries. As a result, it has limited growth prospects. Indeed, data shows that its annual revenues have grown only modestly from $15 billion in 2019 to $18.9 billion last year. 

In the same period, Alphabet’s revenue has soared from $161 billion to over $307 billion in the last financial year. 

What Baidu has grown is its profitability, which has moved from $295 million to over $2.8 billion. Google’s profits rose from $34 billion to over $73 billion.

Baidu’s growth has slowed

The most recent financial results showed that Baidu’s growth has mostly slowed because of the woes in China, where most companies have reported weak numbers. 

Its quarterly revenues dropped from RMB 34 billion in the third quarter of 2023 to RMB 33.9 billion or $4.6 billion in Q2. Its online marketing services dropped from RMB 21 billion to RMB 20.62 billion. Revenues in the year’s first half moved from RMB 65.2 billion to RMB 65.4 billion or $9 billion. 

These numbers mean that its business is not doing well as the Chinese economy slows. Analysts expect its revenue to be $4.8 billion in the current quarter. Its full-year revenues are expected to be $19.3 billion, followed to $20.4 billion next year. 

Baidu’s profit is expected to grow gradually this year from $11.42 to $11.49 followed by $11.5 in the next financial year. 

BIDU valuation

Therefore, Baidu is no longer a growth stock, which explains why its valuation is smaller than that of Google and other firms. 

Baidu’s price-to-earnings ratio is 9.07, much lower than the communication sector median of 13.42. It is also smaller than the five-year average of 15.2. Baidu’s forward P/E ratio stands at 11.90, which is also lower than the sector median of 19. 

Alphabet, on the other hand, has a P/E multiple of 23.53 and a forward ratio of 21, which are higher than 20.75 and 19, respectively. 

This valuation difference is because Google is growing at a fast pace. Its forward revenue multiple is 10.98, while Baidu’s metric is 4.50. 

There are also signs that Baidu’s website traffic has dropped in the past few months. Data by SimilarWeb shows that its traffic dropped by 1% in August to 2.52 billion while Google’s traffic surged to 83.5 billion.

Baidu stock price analysis

BIDU chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the BIDU share price bottomed at $80 in August and has bounced back by over 31% to the current $105.70. 

This rebound happened after the stock formed a falling wedge chart pattern, a popular bullish sign. It has now moved above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), meaning that bulls are now in control. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the overbought point of 80. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as bulls target the next point at $115.35, its highest point on May 6, which is about 10% above the current level.

The post Baidu stock is extremely cheap, but one key risk remain appeared first on Invezz

Greece is poised to sell a 10% stake in the National Bank of Greece (NBG) as it continues its broader privatization efforts, which have seen the state reduce its holdings in several major banks over the past year.

The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) announced the price range for the sale on Monday, setting it between €7.30 and €7.95 per share.

Potential to raise up to €727 million

At the upper end of the pricing range, which is slightly higher than last Friday’s closing price of €7.84, Greece could generate up to €727.2 million ($812 million) from the sale, according to a report in Bloomberg.

The books for the transaction are expected to close on Wednesday at 2 pm London time.

This marks a significant step in the country’s banking sector reform, with the Greek government having fully exited other major lenders such as Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings, Alpha Bank, and Piraeus Bank in recent months.

While Greece is reducing its stake in NBG, it will retain an 8.4% holding in the bank.

Privatization marks continued economic recovery

This sale comes on the heels of a 22% stake sale in National Bank by the HFSF in November, which raised €1.06 billion.

Greece’s economy has been on an upward trajectory, outperforming many of its European counterparts.

The country regained its investment-grade status last year, a notable achievement after losing it during the 2010 debt crisis.

The non-performing loan ratio in Greek banks has also significantly improved, aligning more closely with European averages.

Another sign of Greece’s return to economic stability is the reintroduction of dividend payments by Greek banks this year, the first time since 2008 that they have been permitted to do so.

European markets open lower amid economic uncertainty

European shares began the week on a cautious note, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index falling 0.1% to 527.47 points by early trading on Monday.

Despite this dip, the index is on track for a third consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak in seven months.

A stronger oil sector helped mitigate some of the losses, as oil prices rose due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on a series of upcoming economic reports, including Germany’s preliminary inflation data for September and similar figures from Italy, as well as Britain’s second-quarter GDP results.

ECB president Christine Lagarde’s comments awaited

Market participants are also awaiting a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, scheduled for later in the day, which could provide insights into the bank’s policy outlook amid the ongoing economic challenges in the region.

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Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) share price has done well this year, rising by over 24% in London. It soared to a high of 8,345p, its highest point since July 17, while its American ADR has jumped to a record high of $114.5. 

Hotel groups are doing well

IHG’s performance has coincided with that of other hotel companies like Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, and Accor, which have risen by over 28.7%, 21.4%, and 12.2%, respectively. 

This performance happened as most of these companies shifted their business model to focus on the asset-light business management industry. 

It also happened amid the strong growth in tourism and business travel now that the world has moved past the Covid-19 pandemic.

For starters, IHG is one of the biggest hotel groups in the world. Its luxury and lifestyle collection is made up of companies like Regent, Intercontinental Hotels & Resorts, Kimpton, and Hotel Indigo.

The company also owns premium brands like Voco, Even, and Crown Plaza, while its essential collection includes Holiday Inn, Garner, and Avid. Its other brands are Candlewood Suites and Staybridge Suites.

Like other hotel groups, its revenue dropped from $3.45 billion in 2019 to over $1.75 billion in 2020 as governments pushed hotels to close their businesses. This growth has happened as the number of its hotel rooms jumped to 955k while its hotels grew to 6,430. 

Since then, it s revenue has grown in each of the last few years. Its annual revenue rose to $2.31 billion in 2021 followed by $3.06 billion and $3.7 billion in the last two financial years.

IHG’s business model has ensured that its margins remain significantly higher than its competitors. It has a gross profit margin of 50% and a net income margin of 16.7%, higher than the industry average of 4.53%.

IHG’s revenue growth is continuing

The most recent financial results show that IHG’s growth continued in the first half of the year. Its revenue rose to $1.10 billion from $1.03 billion in the same period in 2023.

Also, its profitability continued growing, with its earnings before interest and tax rising to over $535 million. 

The numbers also showed that its fee business revenue was $850 million while its fee margin expanded to 60.6%.

Most of this growth was driven by groups followed by leisure and business, with Americas being the biggest drivers.

Analysts expect that IHG’s business will continue to do well in the coming years even as the revenge traveling trends starts to slow. 

At the same time, it has continued to return funds to its shareholders. Its share buybacks in the year’s first half was over $800 million. Together with share buybacks, the company will return $1 billion to shareholders, a big number since it has a market cap of over $17 billion. 

The challenge, however, is that the recent stock rally has left behind a relatively overvalued company. IHG has a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 24, higher than the industry’s median of 18, and an EV to EBITDA multiple of 20. 

IHG share price analysis

The daily chart shows that the IHG stock price has been in a strong bull run in the past few months, and is approaching the important resistance point at 8,495p, its highest point on July 15. 

The stock has moved above the Ichimoku cloud indicator and the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. 

Also, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have continued soaring. The two have moved to the overbought levels.

Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the IHG share price is bullish, with the next target to watch being at 8,650, its highest point on record. 

The post As the IHG share price soars, does it have more upside? appeared first on Invezz

In the week ending on September 27th, two currencies drew significant attention: the Argentine peso (USDARS) and the Colombian peso (USDCOP). Their movements present a fascinating narrative of both gains and losses in the world of Latin America’s currency trading.

On September 27, the Argentinian Peso USDARS increased slightly by 0.7370, or 0.08%, to 967.9740 from 967.2370. While this increase is modest, it exhibits remarkable resilience in the face of historical volatility, especially when considering that the USDARS reached an all-time high of 14,850 in September 2020.

Despite the ongoing economic hurdles, the relative stability of the Argentine peso can be linked to several factors, including geopolitical influences and commodity exports.

Historically reliant on agriculture, Argentina has faced substantial challenges; however, recent patterns suggest some improvement. Investors are showing cautious optimism, especially with robust global demand for soybeans and other agricultural products.

Though the latest increase in the USDARS outlook is positive, there are still concerns about inflation and fiscal policy.

Argentina is battling with high inflation rates, which rose to 236.7% in August, and frequently erodes buying power and discourages investment.

Nonetheless, the current strength of the USDARS demonstrates the possibility of economic recovery and currency stability, even in uncertain times.

The USDCOP shows a small decline

In comparison, the Colombian Peso (USDCOP) fell 2.8500 points, or 0.07%, to 4,163.6500 from 4,166.5000 on Friday. The USDCOP earlier peaked at 5,118.38 in November 2022, reflecting the currency’s complicated issues.

This decreasing trend indicates various underlying factors, most notably investor opinion over Colombia’s economic predicament. Inflation, fluctuating oil prices, and political instability have all had a substantial impact on this development.

Despite the Colombian government’s efforts to stabilize the economy, such as interventions in the oil sector and endeavours to attract foreign investment, the currency’s performance indicates that problems persist.

Moreover, the weakening of the USDCOP sheds light on the broader problems emerging markets currently face, especially those closely tied to commodity prices.

As global economic conditions change and consumer spending adapts in a post-pandemic world, fluctuations in the Colombian peso mirror the delicate balance of trade dynamics and investment confidence.

The Mexican Peso: Strategic retreat

The Mexican peso (USDMXN) also suffered a noteworthy move, falling to 19.65 per USD from a four-week high of 19.12 on September 17.

This reduction follows the Bank of Mexico’s decision to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.50%, which was motivated by positive inflation trends and subsequent market reactions.

While this rate drop was expected, it underscores the central bank’s cautious approach amid ongoing concerns about persistent core inflation, which remains a key issue even though headline inflation has fallen to 4.66% by mid-September 2024.

The combination of weak domestic economic performance, volatile financial markets, and decreasing bond yields has prompted the Bank of Mexico to exercise prudence in future monetary policy adjustments.

The Brazilian Real: A positive outlook

In contrast, the Brazilian (USDBRL) real surpassed 5.5 per USD in September, aided by hawkish forecasts from Brazil’s central bank and a better prognosis for foreign currency inflows following China’s stimulus measures.

The real’s resiliency emphasizes its potential for recovery, indicating increased investor confidence in Brazil’s economic future.

Overall, the volatility of these currencies reflects the complex interplay of global economic factors, investor sentiment, and monetary policies.

As Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil manage their respective economic conditions, currency rivalry will continue to influence financial markets in the foreseeable future.

Understanding these transitions is critical for stakeholders in managing risks and capitalizing on opportunities in a changing marketplace.

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Shein, the fast-fashion giant known for its ultra-affordable clothing and rapid production cycle cannot seem to catch a break.

The company already suffered a setback last year when it had to scrap its original plans to list in New York after US lawmakers raised concerns over alleged labour malpractices and lawsuits from competitors, besides flagging the company’s “deep ties to China”.

Now, ahead of a highly-anticipated IPO in London, the news flow related to the company’s practices is causing experts and analysts to wonder if Shein’s UK plans will meet the same fate as its US ambitions.

The China-founded group that made more than $2bn in profits for 2023 and registered sales of $45bn on its website, was valued at $66 billion in its last funding round, and its IPO valuation is expected to hover around that figure.

Accusations of ‘tax dodging’ and impact of regulatory tightening

Earlier this week, Superdry’s chief Julian Dunkerton accused Shein of “dodging tax” and urged the UK government to get rid of the loophole which enabled the fashion major to export individual parcels directly to customers without paying any import duty.

Dunkerton was referring to the rule that exempts shipments worth less than 135 pounds from import duties.

Since Shein dispatches low-value parcels directly to customers from overseas, it is not charged an import duty on them. 

Before the rise of global online marketplaces, the tax exemption had little impact.

However, US and EU retailers now face increasing competition from low-cost Chinese competitors, and state treasuries are missing out on potential tax revenue.

In July, Simon Roberts, CEO of Sainsbury had also advocated for changes to this rule, seeking a level playing field for all retailers. Next CEO Lord Wolfson has called for the same. 

Earlier this month, the US reportedly took the lead in plugging this tax gap and proposed rules that would remove the exemption for Chinese goods in a move directly aimed at companies like Shein and Temu. 

While US said this “de minimis” rule has helped the two companies undercut competitors with lower prices, both Shein and Temu sought to impress that their popularity was not based on the tax rule but on their business models.

Shein also said it supported reform of the de minimis exemption so that rules were applied “equally and evenly”. 

The EU too is reportedly drawing up plans to scrap the 150 euros threshold under which items can be bought duty-free. 

“An open question is how far Shein’s business model would be damaged if custom duties had to be paid,” Nils Pratley, Guardian’s financial editor wrote. Asserting that investors might need some convincing on this front, Pratley added:

Donald Tang, Shein’s executive chair, has argued in the past that the firm embraces reform in the name of “fair competition around the world” and has claimed tax breaks are “not foundational to our success.” Outside investors, one suspects, would want to see detailed evidence to support the latter claim. The core pitch to consumers is that the clothes are dirt-cheap; the customs duty advantage does not feel irrelevant.

Labour violations, design copying, and environmental issues

Apart from tackling accusatory claims about how its using regulatory loopholes to gain an upper hand over its competitors, Shein is also accused of forced labour in its supply chains. 

In June, a human rights group urged Britain’s financial regulator to block Shein’s LSE listing as the company was using minority Uyghur people as forced labour at some of its cotton suppliers in the Xinjiang region. 

Amnesty International UK even said Shein’s potential London listing would be a “badge of shame” for the London market because of the fast-fashion firm’s “questionable” labour and human rights standards.

Shein stated it had a zero-tolerance policy for forced labour and its manufacturers source cotton only from approved regions.

In August, Shein, in its 2023 sustainability report admitted its found two cases of child labour and factories failing to pay the minimum wage in its supply chain last year. 

The company added that both cases were resolved swiftly with actions including terminating contracts with underage employees and other reliefs offered to them. 

An investigation this year by the Swiss-based non-profit group Public Eye also found that people employed to produce garments for Shein routinely work more than 70-hour weeks.

The latest report by WIRED has documented how gig workers in China are vlogging about the allegedly precarious working conditions at Shein’s fulfilment centres on platforms like Bilibili.

Apart from facing scrutiny for its alleged labour malpractices, Shein has also been sued by fashion majors like Uniqlo and H&M for copying their designs. 

On Thursday, Italy’s antitrust agency launched an investigation into a Dublin-based company that operated Shein’s website and app over possibly misleading environmental claims made on Shein’s website. 

Besides, Shein has attracted criticism for promoting disposable clothing and contributing to environmental pollution. 

What happens to Shein’s IPO? Experts weigh in

While the US decided not to have the company list on its bourses after its lawmakers raised concerns discussed above, the jury is out on whether UK would be compelled to do the same. 

Signs of political pressure around its listing have already started to emerge in the UK.

Earlier this month, Liam Byrne, the Labour MP who heads parliament’s business and trade committee called on the government to closely scrutinise Shein for possible links to forced working.

Byrne told the Financial Times he would like to see a British version of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act from 2021, which bans the use of cotton from Xinjiang by companies in the US. He said:

My view is that we don’t have a Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act in Britain and therefore it is incumbent on ministers to satisfy them selves that Shein passes the highest standards on forced labour protections. That is something a Labour government might want to address.

Last month, London Stock Exchange Group chief executive David Schwimmer emphatically denied there would be any “lowering of standards” to lure the fast-fashion retailer. 

Although he did not directly comment on Shein, Schwimmer has said that the exchange’s governance and disclosure regime tends to be “very good for companies in terms of having the disclosure and the scrutiny and the investor participating in how they are managed.”

Sir Ian Cheshire, former chief of B&Q, who was also the former chairman of Barclays, said earlier this week that it would be better for the company to list in the UK as London-listed firms have to meet certain environmental quality controls. 

The alternative could be Shein listing on another exchange, which “might just let them do what they want”, he told the BBC’s Today programme. He said:

I would always vote for companies coming to London to be on the responsible side of the [green] transition and moving in the right direction.

He added that the government could fix the tax mismatch to enable retailers access a level-playing field. 

Meanwhile, Shein’s London IPO plans continue to be clouded with uncertainty.

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After two consecutive weeks of gains, oil prices have fallen back into bear territory this week, as fears about higher supply from Libya and Saudi Arabia outweighed positive signals from China.

Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia reportedly decided to ramp up its oil production starting in December, abandoning its earlier target of maintaining a $100-per-barrel oil price.

This, along with the possibility of higher supply from Libya—where a political dispute was resolved on Thursday—could pave the way for the return of around 500,000 barrels per day of oil from the Middle Eastern country.

Global oil prices slipped following news of the Kingdom considering increased production from December.

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $70.64 per barrel, down from last week’s close of $74.49 per barrel. Since Monday, prices have fallen 5%.

As for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, prices have dipped 4% since Monday and are currently around $67.48 per barrel.

On Friday, China’s central bank cut interest rates and provided much-needed liquidity to the banking system.

However, the positive move failed to prop up the mood in oil markets, with traders focusing on the prospect of rising supply.

Though more economic stimulus is expected from China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, next week, the growing prospect of rising supply is likely to continue weighing on prices.

“When we boil everything down, the market faces the stark reality of demand leveling off and supply growing,” Matt Stanley, head of market engagement, EMEA & APAC at Kpler, said in a commentary.

OPEC’s Voluntary Cuts Unwinding to Increase Supply

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have been cutting crude production by 5.86 million barrels per day since last year to keep oil prices at desired levels.

However, barring a brief period in April when Brent prices touched this year’s high of $92 per barrel, the oil market has not been able to sustain those gains.

Weak demand from China and concerns over more oil hitting the market toward the end of the year have complicated matters for OPEC and its allies.

In June, OPEC agreed to start unwinding its 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary output cuts from October.

However, sliding oil prices prompted the cartel to postpone the unwinding by two more months earlier this month.

The voluntary cuts are borne by only a handful of countries within the cartel.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the group, has been withholding 1 million barrels per day of oil from the market since late last year, over and above the quota agreed in the Declaration of Cooperation.

If Saudi Arabia and other members agree to unwind some of the voluntary production cuts from December, the oil market could face a substantial surplus.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), non-OPEC oil production is expected to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024 and 2025.

In contrast, OPEC and its allies’ oil output is set to decline by 810,000 barrels per day this year and rise by only 540,000 barrels per day in 2025, the Paris-based energy watchdog said in its September report.

The IEA said:

With non-OPEC+ supply rising faster than overall demand—barring a prolonged stand-off in Libya—OPEC+ may be staring at a substantial surplus, even if its extra curbs were to remain in place.

Poor Demand to Keep Prices Muted

At a time when oil supply is on the rise, global demand is headed in the opposite direction.

Demand for oil rose by just 800,000 barrels per day during the first half of 2024, according to the IEA, which is sharply lower than the growth of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023.

For the year as a whole, growth in demand is likely to be 900,000 barrels per day in 2024.

“The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in recent months, led by China, has fueled a sharp sell-off in oil markets,” the IEA noted in its report.

Brent crude oil futures have plunged from a high of more than $82 per barrel in early August to a near three-year low of around $71 per barrel, despite hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws.

In China, the largest crude importer, demand in 2024 is slated to increase by just 180,000 barrels per day, as the broad-based economic slowdown and an accelerating shift away from oil in favor of alternative fuels weigh on consumption, according to the IEA.

The latest fiscal measures announced by Beijing could provide some support to oil prices, but all eyes will be on the country’s oil imports in the coming months.

At present, the oil market looks increasingly bearish.

“Traders should expect continued downward pressure on crude oil futures unless significant shifts in supply or demand materialize,” James Hyerczyk, an analyst at FXEmpire, said in a report.

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Remote work has experienced a significant surge across the European Union (EU) since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the Netherlands emerging as the frontrunner in telework adoption.

According to Eurostat, in 2023, 22% of individuals aged 15 to 64 in the EU were engaged in remote work, reflecting a shift in work patterns and highlighting disparities among member states.

Data reveals that out of the 22% of EU remote workers, 9% were doing so regularly and 13% on occasion.

This marks an eight percentage point increase since 2019, before the pandemic, underscoring a trend toward flexible working arrangements.

The statistics indicate notable disparities among EU countries.

The Netherlands leads with an impressive 51.9% of its workforce working remotely at least part-time.

Following closely are Sweden (45.3%), Iceland (42.6%), and other Nordic countries like Norway and Finland, which hover around 42%.

Conversely, nations like Germany, Italy, and Spain report much lower remote work acceptance, with Germany at 23.4% and Italy and Spain below 15%.

In Eastern Europe, countries such as Romania and Bulgaria face significant hurdles, with only about 3% of their working populations engaged in remote work.

What’s driving remote work adoption

The adoption of remote work is influenced by various factors, including the degree of tertiarization and digitalization within a country’s economy.

Tertiarization refers to the shift from primary (agricultural) and secondary (manufacturing) sectors to the service-oriented tertiary sector, which typically offers more telework-friendly jobs.

Digitalization also plays a crucial role; nations with advanced technological infrastructures are more likely to facilitate the transition to remote work.

In countries with robust technology frameworks, businesses are more inclined to implement remote work policies, resulting in higher telework rates.

The high telework adoption rates in the Netherlands and Sweden can be attributed to their progressive labor laws and strong emphasis on work-life balance.

Both countries have fostered a supportive environment for remote work through effective legislation and healthcare initiatives aimed at enhancing employee well-being.

This focus not only smooths the transition to telework but also boosts overall workplace satisfaction and productivity.

Challenges in Eastern Europe

In contrast, the lower telework rates in Eastern Europe highlight several challenges.

Issues such as underdeveloped digital infrastructure, a lower degree of economic tertiarization, and cultural attitudes towards work can hinder remote work acceptance.

In Romania and Bulgaria, limited access to digital resources and a lack of telework-friendly policies further complicate the adaptation of workforce practices.

Eurostat’s data illustrate a growing acceptance of remote work within the EU, albeit with varying levels of engagement among member states.

This increase in teleworking reflects broader societal shifts triggered by the pandemic, while also emphasizing the significance of economic structures and infrastructure in shaping employment behaviors.

As countries adapt to this evolving work landscape, understanding regional differences will be vital in ensuring equitable access to remote job opportunities.

The rise of teleworking presents both challenges and opportunities in the expanding European job market.

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In the week ending on September 27th, two currencies drew significant attention: the Argentine peso (USDARS) and the Colombian peso (USDCOP). Their movements present a fascinating narrative of both gains and losses in the world of Latin America’s currency trading.

On September 27, the Argentinian Peso USDARS increased slightly by 0.7370, or 0.08%, to 967.9740 from 967.2370. While this increase is modest, it exhibits remarkable resilience in the face of historical volatility, especially when considering that the USDARS reached an all-time high of 14,850 in September 2020.

Despite the ongoing economic hurdles, the relative stability of the Argentine peso can be linked to several factors, including geopolitical influences and commodity exports.

Historically reliant on agriculture, Argentina has faced substantial challenges; however, recent patterns suggest some improvement. Investors are showing cautious optimism, especially with robust global demand for soybeans and other agricultural products.

Though the latest increase in the USDARS outlook is positive, there are still concerns about inflation and fiscal policy.

Argentina is battling with high inflation rates, which rose to 236.7% in August, and frequently erodes buying power and discourages investment.

Nonetheless, the current strength of the USDARS demonstrates the possibility of economic recovery and currency stability, even in uncertain times.

The USDCOP shows a small decline

In comparison, the Colombian Peso (USDCOP) fell 2.8500 points, or 0.07%, to 4,163.6500 from 4,166.5000 on Friday. The USDCOP earlier peaked at 5,118.38 in November 2022, reflecting the currency’s complicated issues.

This decreasing trend indicates various underlying factors, most notably investor opinion over Colombia’s economic predicament. Inflation, fluctuating oil prices, and political instability have all had a substantial impact on this development.

Despite the Colombian government’s efforts to stabilize the economy, such as interventions in the oil sector and endeavours to attract foreign investment, the currency’s performance indicates that problems persist.

Moreover, the weakening of the USDCOP sheds light on the broader problems emerging markets currently face, especially those closely tied to commodity prices.

As global economic conditions change and consumer spending adapts in a post-pandemic world, fluctuations in the Colombian peso mirror the delicate balance of trade dynamics and investment confidence.

The Mexican Peso: Strategic retreat

The Mexican peso (USDMXN) also suffered a noteworthy move, falling to 19.65 per USD from a four-week high of 19.12 on September 17.

This reduction follows the Bank of Mexico’s decision to reduce its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.50%, which was motivated by positive inflation trends and subsequent market reactions.

While this rate drop was expected, it underscores the central bank’s cautious approach amid ongoing concerns about persistent core inflation, which remains a key issue even though headline inflation has fallen to 4.66% by mid-September 2024.

The combination of weak domestic economic performance, volatile financial markets, and decreasing bond yields has prompted the Bank of Mexico to exercise prudence in future monetary policy adjustments.

The Brazilian Real: A positive outlook

In contrast, the Brazilian (USDBRL) real surpassed 5.5 per USD in September, aided by hawkish forecasts from Brazil’s central bank and a better prognosis for foreign currency inflows following China’s stimulus measures.

The real’s resiliency emphasizes its potential for recovery, indicating increased investor confidence in Brazil’s economic future.

Overall, the volatility of these currencies reflects the complex interplay of global economic factors, investor sentiment, and monetary policies.

As Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil manage their respective economic conditions, currency rivalry will continue to influence financial markets in the foreseeable future.

Understanding these transitions is critical for stakeholders in managing risks and capitalizing on opportunities in a changing marketplace.

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