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First Solar (FSLR) stock has crashed and moved into a technical bear market as traders focus on the ongoing US presidential election and the rising odds that Donald Trump will win. After peaking at $306.35 in June, the stock has dropped by over 35% to the current $196, its lowest level since May.

Donald Trump’s odds are rising

First Solar and other solar energy stocks have tumbled as investors continue focusing on the US general election.

The most recent data shows that Trump has narrowed the gap with Kamala Harris. According to the New York Times, Trump has a national average polling average of 48 against Harris’ 49%, which is the narrowest spread since she entered the presidential race. 

The two are almost tied in most battleground states. Trump leads Arizona by 2 points and Georgia and North Carolina by 1 point. Harris leads him in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin by less than 1%.

Additional data by Poymarket shows that Trump has a 64% chance of winning compared to Harris 34%. This is an important prediction since people have staked their own cash, which now stands at $2.2 billion. Trump also leads in Kalshi with a 61% chance against Harris’ 39%. 

It is still too early to predict whether these polls will be accurate. However, most analysts now believe that it is Trump’s race to lose.

Therefore, solar energy stocks have dropped because Trump has never been keen on the industry. Besides, his campaign has received millions of dollars from oil and gas executives since he has promised lax regulations.

This is unlike Joe Biden, who has been highly supportive of the solar industry through several bills like the Inflation Reduction Act.

However, the reality is that presidents don’t have a big impact on a company’s performance. For example, as shown below, First Solar stock price rose by over 120% during Donald Trump’s first term. It has risen by a similar amount during Biden’s term.

First Solar performance under Trump

Interest rates as a catalyst

One reason why First Solar and other clean energy companies have underperformed the market in the past few years was the Federal Reserve.

The Fed started hiking interest to fight inflation, ultimately pushing them to between 5.25% and 5.50%, the highest point in over two decades. 

Solar and wind companies always struggle when interest rates are soaring because of the rising cost of purchasing and installation. Besides, solar energy is an expensive investment that costs over $15,000 for a small home. 

Additionally, these companies are battling cheaper manufacturers in China and India, which have lower manufacturing costs. There was also the supply chain issue that came after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Therefore, the company could benefit as interest rates start falling in the US and other markets. 

Read more: Morgan Stanley sees a 65% upside in First Solar stock

First Solar’s business is doing well

First Solar’s business is doing well, with its revenue and profits rising. Data shows that its revenue rose from $2.7 billion in 2020 to over $3.3 billion last year. Its annual profit also jumped from $398 million in 2020 to over $1.2 billion in the trailing twelve months. 

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect that its annual revenue will rise to $4.45 billion this year and $5.6 billion in 2026. Its earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow to $13.47 this year and $21.32 in the following year. First Solar has a good track record of beating analysts estimates. 

Most analysts have a positive outlook for the stock. Some of the most bullish analysts are from companies like Susquehanna, Roth MKM, Jefferies, Truist, and Bank of America. Data also shows that the average stock estimate is $293, or 46% higher than the current $196. 

First Solar stock price analysis

FSLR chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the FSLR stock price peaked at $306 after Joe Biden stepped aside and was replaced by Joe Biden. It then dropped by over 35% to the current $196. 

The stock has also crashed below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. It also moved below the key support at $231, its highest point on May 8 this year. 

First Solar shares remains above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages. Therefore, the outlook for the stock is relatively bearish ahead of the election. If this happens, it will drop to around $180, which coincides with the ascending trendline that connects the lowest points since July 2022. It will then bounce back after the election ends in November.

Read more: First Solar stock faces substantial risks but a 25% jump is likely

The post The bullish case for the First Solar stock price appeared first on Invezz

The XPeng (XPEV) stock price has pulled back after peaking at $13.73 on September 30th as most Chinese companies were soaring. It retreated to $1o.8 on Monday, 21% below the year-to-date high, meaning that it is in a local bear market. It also remains 54% below its highest level this year. 

JPMorgan is bullish on XPeng

XPeng shares pulled back even after an analyst from JPMorgan lifted his target for the company. In a note, Nick Lai estimated that the stock would rise to $14 in the near term, implying a 30% jump from the current level. 

The analyst noted several catalysts for the stock. For example, he applauded the firm’s upcoming new product strategy like advancing its in-house technology. 

XPeng is also expected to deliver several major announcements when it holds its technology day this week. For example, it will likely announce a new product or a new powertrain as it seeks to beat other top competitors like Nio and BYD. 

The company has also boosted its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) technology. It can now provide self-driving features in public roads in China and other markets.

JPMorgan believes that XPeng will benefit as more people in China embrace electric vehicles, which will get to 60% of total vehicle sales by 2030. 

Chinese EV companies have been investing in technology in the past few years. For example, BYD has come up with a hybrid vehicle with a 2,000-mile range. XPeng has also mastered the range battle, with its G9 vehicle having a 436 range.

XPEV’s business is doing well

A key concern for XPeng and other electric vehicles is that their revenue and unit growth will continue slowing in the coming years. Besides, competition in the industry has risen, with China having over 100 companies. 

However, the reality is that XPeng and other Chinese EV companies are seeing strong demand. For example, XPeng delivered 21,352 vehicles in September, a 40% increase from the same period in 2023. XPENG MONA M03, which started deliveries in September, sold 10,000 units during the month. 

Its total deliveries in the second quarter rose by 16% to 46,533. The JPMorgan analyst expects that its fourth-quarter deliveries will rise by 77%, helped by the MONA brand.

Most importantly, XPeng has expanded its business in other countries, especially in Europe. It recently introduced the G9, G6, and P7 models in Spain and Portugal. While Europe has announced EV tariffs, its manufacturing edge means that its vehicles will be affordable to many Europeans.

The most recent results showed that XPeng’s delivered 30,207 vehicles in the second quarter, a 30% increase from the same period last year. This increase happened as the number of its locations jumped to 611 stores. Its self-operated charging locations grew to 1,298, a trend that will continue in the near term.

XPeng also grew its margins during the quarter, with the gross margin rising to 14% from minus 3.9% in 2023. 

Most importantly, despite its huge investments, the company continued to narrow its losses. Its net loss came in at 1.28 billion in the last quarter, down from 2.8 billion in Q2’23.

XPeng also has a strong balance sheet. It ended the last quarter with $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments. In addition to this, it has $474 million in restricted cash and $1.5 billion in short-term deposits, and $73 million in restricted short-term deposits. 

Altogether, XPeng has $6.15 billion in current assets against $4.1 billion in current liabilities, meaning that it has over $2 billion in working capital. As such, the company will likely not raise additional capital in the near term. Remember, it also received $700 million from Volkswagen, which now owns about 5% of its business. 

Analysts believe that XPeng will continue to do well in the near term. The third-quarter revenue is expected to be $1.37 billion, 15.5% higher than last year. Also, the annual revenue of $5.7 billion will be a 335 increase. It will be followed by $9 billion in 2023. 

Also, the company is expected to continue reducing its losses. The loss per share is expected to be 77 cents followed by 43 cents next year.

XPeng stock price analysis

XPEV chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the XPEV share price bottomed at $6.57 in April and August. A double-bottom pattern is one of the most bullish signs in the market. It has also moved above the key resistance point at $10.50, the double-bottom’s neckline.

The stock has also formed a golden cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). In most periods, this is one of the most bullish signs in the market. 

Therefore, the stock will likely rise as bulls target the 50% retracement point at $15, which is about 40% jump from the current level.

The post XPeng stock price analysis: technicals point to a 40% jump appeared first on Invezz

Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) is set to announce its third-quarter earnings results today, October 22, 2024.

Investors are keenly awaiting the report to gauge how the semiconductor giant is navigating current market challenges and opportunities.

Texas Instruments expected financial performance

For Q3 2024, Texas Instruments anticipates revenues between $3.94 billion and $4.26 billion, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate pegged at $4.11 billion—a decline of approximately 9.3% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to fall between $1.24 and $1.48, with the consensus estimate at $1.36, reflecting a 24.4% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

Over the past 60 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.

In the previous quarter, Texas Instruments reported revenues of $3.82 billion, down 16% year-over-year, with EPS at $1.22.

Despite these challenges, Texas Instruments has historically demonstrated resilience, having surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 4.97%.

Texas Instruments Q3 earnings preview

Several dynamics are expected to shape Texas Instruments’ performance this quarter:

  1. Manufacturing costs: Increasing production costs linked to reduced factory utilization and planned capacity expansions are anticipated to weigh on profitability.
  2. Weak demand: A notable reduction in inventory by major customers, particularly in the Analog and Embedded Processing segments, is likely to impact sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Analog revenues stands at $3.14 billion, indicating a 6.4% decline, while Embedded Processing revenues are expected to drop 25.6% to $662.4 million.
  3. Market recovery: On a positive note, the rebound in communication equipment, strength in personal electronics, and increased demand in the industrial sector could provide a boost to overall revenue.

TXN stock performance

Despite facing headwinds, Texas Instruments has seen its stock rise approximately 20% year-to-date, outperforming many peers in the semiconductor space.

However, analysts have grown more cautious in their outlook, with revenue estimates reflecting four downward revisions over the past month.

Source: TradingView

While annual returns for TXN have been inconsistent—showing 18% in 2021, a -10% drop in 2022, and 6% in 2023—market conditions remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic factors and shifting demand patterns.

Investors are eager to see whether Q3 results will lead to a further rally or reveal persistent challenges.

As Texas Instruments prepares to release its Q3 earnings today, investors will be closely watching for insights into the company’s strategies amid a competitive semiconductor landscape.

The upcoming results will be crucial in determining the stock’s trajectory, especially considering the pressures from production costs and fluctuating demand.

Will TXN’s strong focus on growth and competitive advantages be enough to counterbalance these challenges?

Stay tuned for the earnings report to uncover the latest developments and their potential impact on TXN stock.

The post Texas Instruments has topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters: Will it do it again today? appeared first on Invezz

Metaplanet Inc. (Tokyo: 3350), a Tokyo-based company specializing in hotel asset management and operations, has revealed its plan to bolster its Bitcoin (BTC) strategy through a significant stock sale.

In August, the company’s board approved the issuance of common stock worth over ¥10 billion, approximately $6.6 million, via a gratis allotment of the 11th series of stock acquisition rights.

Metaplanet aims to use the proceeds to increase its BTC reserves, positioning itself strategically in the rapidly evolving digital assets market.

Metaplanet’s strategy mirrors that of MicroStrategy

Metaplanet recently completed the exercise period for its 11th Stock Acquisition Rights, achieving a 72.8% exercise rate.

A total of 13,774 shareholders participated, illustrating substantial interest in the company’s long-term plans.

The remaining unexercised rights are set to be transferred to EVO FUND, with final results expected to be released in the coming weeks.

This move marks a crucial step in the company’s broader Bitcoin strategy.

Metaplanet’s strategy mirrors that of MicroStrategy Inc., a well-known US-based business intelligence firm, by investing heavily in Bitcoin as a hedge against global currency devaluation.

According to Coinpedia, Metaplanet currently holds around 861.387 BTC, purchased at an average price of ¥9,313,428.

With the latest stock sale, the company is set to double its Bitcoin reserves, which are now valued at over ¥8 billion.

This positions Metaplanet among the companies adopting Bitcoin as a central pillar in their financial strategies.

How Metaplanet plans to leverage Bitcoin

Metaplanet’s enhanced Bitcoin strategy aligns with the mainstream adoption of digital currencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols.

By expanding its BTC holdings, Metaplanet aims to strengthen its balance sheet against economic uncertainties, including high inflation and currency fluctuations.

This approach reflects a growing trend among institutions that view Bitcoin as a store of value, similar to gold, amidst an evolving financial landscape.

Metaplanet’s strategic stock sale coincides with increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin.

In the United States, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers have been accelerating their acquisition plans, aiming to secure assets amidst regulatory changes.

The demand for Bitcoin is expected to support price growth, with market analysts projecting a potential bullish breakout similar to that of precious metals and major stock indices.

The company’s move to double its Bitcoin holdings underscores a broader trend among institutions seeking long-term digital asset investments.

What this means for Bitcoin prices

The broader market implications of Metaplanet’s strategy are significant. As institutions continue to accumulate Bitcoin, demand pressures could drive the cryptocurrency’s price higher.

Analysts anticipate that Metaplanet’s increased holdings, alongside similar moves by institutional investors, could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation.

This could result in positive market momentum, particularly if spot Bitcoin ETFs gain regulatory approval in major markets like the US and UK.

For Metaplanet, this could translate into stronger financial stability and growth in the coming years.

The post Metaplanet raises 10B yen to fuel its aggressive Bitcoin purchasing plan appeared first on Invezz

The XPeng (XPEV) stock price has pulled back after peaking at $13.73 on September 30th as most Chinese companies were soaring. It retreated to $1o.8 on Monday, 21% below the year-to-date high, meaning that it is in a local bear market. It also remains 54% below its highest level this year. 

JPMorgan is bullish on XPeng

XPeng shares pulled back even after an analyst from JPMorgan lifted his target for the company. In a note, Nick Lai estimated that the stock would rise to $14 in the near term, implying a 30% jump from the current level. 

The analyst noted several catalysts for the stock. For example, he applauded the firm’s upcoming new product strategy like advancing its in-house technology. 

XPeng is also expected to deliver several major announcements when it holds its technology day this week. For example, it will likely announce a new product or a new powertrain as it seeks to beat other top competitors like Nio and BYD. 

The company has also boosted its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) technology. It can now provide self-driving features in public roads in China and other markets.

JPMorgan believes that XPeng will benefit as more people in China embrace electric vehicles, which will get to 60% of total vehicle sales by 2030. 

Chinese EV companies have been investing in technology in the past few years. For example, BYD has come up with a hybrid vehicle with a 2,000-mile range. XPeng has also mastered the range battle, with its G9 vehicle having a 436 range.

XPEV’s business is doing well

A key concern for XPeng and other electric vehicles is that their revenue and unit growth will continue slowing in the coming years. Besides, competition in the industry has risen, with China having over 100 companies. 

However, the reality is that XPeng and other Chinese EV companies are seeing strong demand. For example, XPeng delivered 21,352 vehicles in September, a 40% increase from the same period in 2023. XPENG MONA M03, which started deliveries in September, sold 10,000 units during the month. 

Its total deliveries in the second quarter rose by 16% to 46,533. The JPMorgan analyst expects that its fourth-quarter deliveries will rise by 77%, helped by the MONA brand.

Most importantly, XPeng has expanded its business in other countries, especially in Europe. It recently introduced the G9, G6, and P7 models in Spain and Portugal. While Europe has announced EV tariffs, its manufacturing edge means that its vehicles will be affordable to many Europeans.

The most recent results showed that XPeng’s delivered 30,207 vehicles in the second quarter, a 30% increase from the same period last year. This increase happened as the number of its locations jumped to 611 stores. Its self-operated charging locations grew to 1,298, a trend that will continue in the near term.

XPeng also grew its margins during the quarter, with the gross margin rising to 14% from minus 3.9% in 2023. 

Most importantly, despite its huge investments, the company continued to narrow its losses. Its net loss came in at 1.28 billion in the last quarter, down from 2.8 billion in Q2’23.

XPeng also has a strong balance sheet. It ended the last quarter with $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments. In addition to this, it has $474 million in restricted cash and $1.5 billion in short-term deposits, and $73 million in restricted short-term deposits. 

Altogether, XPeng has $6.15 billion in current assets against $4.1 billion in current liabilities, meaning that it has over $2 billion in working capital. As such, the company will likely not raise additional capital in the near term. Remember, it also received $700 million from Volkswagen, which now owns about 5% of its business. 

Analysts believe that XPeng will continue to do well in the near term. The third-quarter revenue is expected to be $1.37 billion, 15.5% higher than last year. Also, the annual revenue of $5.7 billion will be a 335 increase. It will be followed by $9 billion in 2023. 

Also, the company is expected to continue reducing its losses. The loss per share is expected to be 77 cents followed by 43 cents next year.

XPeng stock price analysis

XPEV chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the XPEV share price bottomed at $6.57 in April and August. A double-bottom pattern is one of the most bullish signs in the market. It has also moved above the key resistance point at $10.50, the double-bottom’s neckline.

The stock has also formed a golden cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). In most periods, this is one of the most bullish signs in the market. 

Therefore, the stock will likely rise as bulls target the 50% retracement point at $15, which is about 40% jump from the current level.

The post XPeng stock price analysis: technicals point to a 40% jump appeared first on Invezz

HSBC has named Pam Kaur as its new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), marking a historic first in the bank’s 160-year history.

Kaur’s appointment follows the leadership reshuffle that saw Georges Elhedery take over as CEO earlier this year.

Set to assume her role on January 1, 2025, Kaur brings over a decade of experience within HSBC to the position, succeeding Jon Bingham, who served as interim CFO.

Her promotion aligns with the bank’s strategic plans to restructure its operations and enhance its presence in key markets, including Asia.

The bank is simultaneously consolidating its structure to streamline operations and drive growth.

Who is Pam Kaur?

Pam Kaur, 60, brings a wealth of experience to her new role as HSBC’s CFO.

Having joined the bank in 2013 as Group Head of Internal Audit, she later served as Chief Risk and Compliance Officer.

Kaur’s financial expertise spans over three decades across multiple global institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, and Citigroup.

She is a Fellow of The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales and holds an MBA in Finance from Panjab University in India.

Kaur’s career trajectory has been marked by her strategic leadership in risk management, audit, and compliance.

Her appointment as CFO makes her the first woman in HSBC’s history to hold this position, a significant milestone for the bank. In addition to her role at HSBC, Kaur serves as a non-executive director at Abrdn plc, further showcasing her industry influence.

HSBC’s restructuring plan targets growth in Asia

Alongside Kaur’s appointment, HSBC has announced a major restructuring plan, effective from January 1, 2025.

The bank will be restructured into four key units: the Hong Kong unit, the UK unit, the corporate and institutional banking unit, and the international wealth and premier banking unit.

This strategic shift aims to enhance efficiency by consolidating HSBC’s commercial banking operations outside the UK and Hong Kong with its global banking and markets business.

The new structure is designed to streamline decision-making and reduce redundancy across regions.

The bank’s reorganisation reflects a broader strategic focus on Asia, where HSBC sees higher growth potential. HSBC has been scaling down its presence in Western markets such as Canada, France, and the US while intensifying its focus on expanding operations in Asia.

This pivot is intended to leverage the region’s economic dynamism, aligning with the bank’s long-term growth strategy.

HSBC employs approximately 214,000 people worldwide, with a significant concentration of its workforce in Asia.

The bank’s strategic shift to restructure into four divisions is aimed at simplifying its operations and driving profitability.

The consolidation of its commercial banking and corporate banking activities is expected to provide operational synergies, enabling the bank to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

This restructuring is part of HSBC’s broader strategy to strengthen its position in Asia, including key markets like China and Southeast Asia.

By prioritizing these regions, HSBC aims to balance its global footprint while reducing exposure to low-growth Western markets.

The move also comes as part of a response to economic headwinds in Europe and North America, where the bank has been gradually winding down operations in less profitable markets.

Pam Kaur to help HSBC in restructuring

As HSBC’s CFO, Pam Kaur will play a crucial role in overseeing the bank’s financial strategy amid a rapidly changing global economic environment.

Her focus will likely include guiding the bank through its restructuring and ensuring that HSBC maintains a balanced approach to growth and cost management.

Given her background in risk management, Kaur is well-positioned to navigate the challenges posed by evolving regulatory landscapes and economic uncertainties.

Kaur’s appointment also signals HSBC’s commitment to diversity at the highest levels of leadership.

Her role as the first female CFO in the bank’s history is a step towards greater inclusivity in an industry traditionally dominated by men.

The post HSBC’s first female CFO in 160 years: who is Pam Kaur? appeared first on Invezz

First Solar (FSLR) stock has crashed and moved into a technical bear market as traders focus on the ongoing US presidential election and the rising odds that Donald Trump will win. After peaking at $306.35 in June, the stock has dropped by over 35% to the current $196, its lowest level since May.

Donald Trump’s odds are rising

First Solar and other solar energy stocks have tumbled as investors continue focusing on the US general election.

The most recent data shows that Trump has narrowed the gap with Kamala Harris. According to the New York Times, Trump has a national average polling average of 48 against Harris’ 49%, which is the narrowest spread since she entered the presidential race. 

The two are almost tied in most battleground states. Trump leads Arizona by 2 points and Georgia and North Carolina by 1 point. Harris leads him in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin by less than 1%.

Additional data by Poymarket shows that Trump has a 64% chance of winning compared to Harris 34%. This is an important prediction since people have staked their own cash, which now stands at $2.2 billion. Trump also leads in Kalshi with a 61% chance against Harris’ 39%. 

It is still too early to predict whether these polls will be accurate. However, most analysts now believe that it is Trump’s race to lose.

Therefore, solar energy stocks have dropped because Trump has never been keen on the industry. Besides, his campaign has received millions of dollars from oil and gas executives since he has promised lax regulations.

This is unlike Joe Biden, who has been highly supportive of the solar industry through several bills like the Inflation Reduction Act.

However, the reality is that presidents don’t have a big impact on a company’s performance. For example, as shown below, First Solar stock price rose by over 120% during Donald Trump’s first term. It has risen by a similar amount during Biden’s term.

First Solar performance under Trump

Interest rates as a catalyst

One reason why First Solar and other clean energy companies have underperformed the market in the past few years was the Federal Reserve.

The Fed started hiking interest to fight inflation, ultimately pushing them to between 5.25% and 5.50%, the highest point in over two decades. 

Solar and wind companies always struggle when interest rates are soaring because of the rising cost of purchasing and installation. Besides, solar energy is an expensive investment that costs over $15,000 for a small home. 

Additionally, these companies are battling cheaper manufacturers in China and India, which have lower manufacturing costs. There was also the supply chain issue that came after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Therefore, the company could benefit as interest rates start falling in the US and other markets. 

Read more: Morgan Stanley sees a 65% upside in First Solar stock

First Solar’s business is doing well

First Solar’s business is doing well, with its revenue and profits rising. Data shows that its revenue rose from $2.7 billion in 2020 to over $3.3 billion last year. Its annual profit also jumped from $398 million in 2020 to over $1.2 billion in the trailing twelve months. 

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts expect that its annual revenue will rise to $4.45 billion this year and $5.6 billion in 2026. Its earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow to $13.47 this year and $21.32 in the following year. First Solar has a good track record of beating analysts estimates. 

Most analysts have a positive outlook for the stock. Some of the most bullish analysts are from companies like Susquehanna, Roth MKM, Jefferies, Truist, and Bank of America. Data also shows that the average stock estimate is $293, or 46% higher than the current $196. 

First Solar stock price analysis

FSLR chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the FSLR stock price peaked at $306 after Joe Biden stepped aside and was replaced by Joe Biden. It then dropped by over 35% to the current $196. 

The stock has also crashed below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. It also moved below the key support at $231, its highest point on May 8 this year. 

First Solar shares remains above the 50-week and 200-week moving averages. Therefore, the outlook for the stock is relatively bearish ahead of the election. If this happens, it will drop to around $180, which coincides with the ascending trendline that connects the lowest points since July 2022. It will then bounce back after the election ends in November.

Read more: First Solar stock faces substantial risks but a 25% jump is likely

The post The bullish case for the First Solar stock price appeared first on Invezz

China has reduced its benchmark lending rates in an effort to stimulate economic growth and address a struggling housing market.

The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered to 3.10% from 3.35%, while the five-year LPR was cut to 3.60% from 3.85%.

These moves follow a series of monetary easing measures introduced by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in late September.

This latest reduction exceeds the expectations of economists, who had predicted a smaller 20-basis point cut across both lending rates.

Instead, the size of the cuts, ranging from 20 to 25 basis points, aligns with previous statements by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng, suggesting a more aggressive approach to monetary easing.

Targeting borrowing and market stabilization

The LPR is set by a consortium of major Chinese banks and serves as a key reference point for the pricing of loans.

Most new and existing loans are linked to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate plays a critical role in determining mortgage costs and other long-term loan pricing.

The reductions come as part of a broader strategy to encourage households and businesses to borrow more by lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity.

These measures are intended to boost lending, halt the property market’s decline, and ultimately restore economic momentum.

“The larger cuts confirm the PBOC’s commitment to faster monetary easing and reflect the Politburo’s recent push for more forceful rate cuts,” said Beckly Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Plc.

Yuan and bond markets react with stability

Following the announcement, the offshore yuan remained stable at around 7.12 per dollar.

Meanwhile, China’s 30-year government bond yield remained unchanged at 2.3% amid low trading volumes. The muted market reaction suggests that the rate cuts were largely anticipated.

China’s top policymakers had earlier emphasized the importance of revitalizing the property market, which plays a crucial role in the country’s economy.

In a Politburo meeting held in September, officials vowed to implement substantial interest rate reductions and introduce measures to prevent further deterioration in the real estate sector.

Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc., noted that the larger-than-expected cuts signal the government’s determination to stabilize the housing market.

Further easing measures likely

The PBOC has indicated that additional monetary easing could be on the horizon.

Governor Pan Gongsheng hinted at the possibility of another reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25 to 50 basis points by year-end to increase bank lending capacity.

Though further interest rate cuts are not expected this year, analysts believe the PBOC could act more aggressively if unexpected economic shocks arise.

China’s largest state-owned lenders also reduced their deposit rates last week, a move intended to mitigate the impact of lower loan rates on bank profit margins.

A pivotal moment for China’s economy

The recent rate cuts mark another step in China’s effort to navigate a challenging economic landscape. As the property market faces headwinds and consumer sentiment remains fragile, the government hopes these measures will reinvigorate borrowing and spending.

While the PBOC’s actions aim to maintain stability in financial markets, economists caution that their effectiveness will depend on consumer and investor confidence.

With additional policy tools at its disposal, the central bank may have to balance further easing with long-term financial stability.

The post China cuts lending rates to revive economy and stabilize housing market appeared first on Invezz

With nearly $10 billion worth of investments being pulled out, October has emerged as the worst month on record for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) withdrawing from India’s stock market.

The outflow has surpassed the previous high of $7.9 billion seen during the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash and has been attributed to a combination of factors, including a shift in global investor sentiment towards China and concerns about overvaluation in Indian equities.

However, despite the sell-off, the Nifty is down by only 4% this month, significantly less than the 23% decline during the March 2020 crash, when the domestic market was in turmoil, partly aided by Domestic Institutional Investors who have invested over Rs 74,200 crore so far in October.

Much like during the 2020 market crash, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), primarily mutual funds, have acted as a counterbalance to the heavy selling by FIIs.

This follows a broader trend in 2024, where DIIs have made record investments of Rs 4 lakh crore in the Indian market.

Retail investors, unlike in previous market downturns, have shown resilience, refraining from panic selling even as foreign funds exit.

‘Buy China, Sell India’ trade drives FII sentiment…

One of the main drivers of the October FII outflow is the growing “Buy China, Sell India” trade.

Investors are increasingly optimistic about China’s economic prospects, with the Hang Seng Index up 14% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 22% in the last month.

This contrasts with the 4% decline in the Nifty, which reflects concerns about India’s market valuations and corporate earnings performance.

“Investors expect that China will ultimately embark on meaningful stimuli that will not only underwrite ’24 growth but extend into ’25-26,” said Viktor Shvets, a strategist at Macquarie.

He added that investors believe the Chinese government is now focused on the economy and may de-emphasize political and geopolitical issues.

…but China is good for traders, not long-term investors, say economists

The investment community however remains divided on whether China’s recovery is sustainable. Noted economist and investment strategist Ed Yardeni advised caution regarding the “Buy China, Sell India” trade. Yardeni told Invezz,

I wouldn’t recommend selling India and buying China unless, again, it might be a good trade, but it’s not a good long-term investment. And India’s had a tremendous bull market, so it’s not exactly cheap. But I would stay invested in India.

Similarly, Chris Wood of Jefferies, who recently increased his weightage in China at the expense of India, reflects a growing sentiment of tactical shifts among global fund managers.

While some investors are bottom-fishing in Chinese markets in anticipation of stimulus, others view the move as a temporary trade rather than a sign of a structural turnaround.

Macquarie, too cautioned that this is more of a trading opportunity than a long-term investment strategy.

“It is quite possible that further announcements might propel China’s equities, even as structural issues fester. But, this is mostly a trading, not an investment call, which still heavily favours India,” the firm said in a report last week.

Overvaluation concerns loom over India

The sell-off by FIIs isn’t just about China. Concerns over India’s market valuations, which have soared following a prolonged bull run, are weighing on investor sentiment.

Analysts warn that Indian markets are trading at historically high valuations, which appear overly optimistic given the current economic backdrop.

Factors such as slowing growth, persistent inflation, high taxes, and elevated interest rates have raised doubts about the sustainability of these valuations.

Ajay Bagga, a market veteran, noted that investor tolerance for missing earnings is minimal in such an environment.

“When markets are at such elevated levels, there is very little tolerance for missing earnings and for bad news,” he said, adding that the rising dollar index, which is now above 103, is further pressuring emerging markets like India.

Weak corporate earnings and macroeconomic challenges

Indian corporate earnings for the most recent quarter have been lackluster across various sectors, adding to the concerns of foreign investors.

Kranthi Bathini, Director of Equity Strategy at WealthMills Securities, pointed out that speculative capital had been flowing into India, with FIIs remaining net buyers as recently as September.

However, the narrative has since shifted, and investors are now turning their attention to Chinese markets, which offer more attractive short- to medium-term valuations.

“With elections ahead in the US, it is believed that the trade war with China will become more aggressive, and the same factors will continue to be in force whoever comes to power,” said Narender Singh, smallcase Manager and Founder at Growth Investing.

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The RBL Bank stock price took a sharp hit, dropping 14% on October 21 to reach its 52-week low, following the bank’s disappointing Q2 results.

The private sector lender reported a significant 24% year-on-year decline in net profit, falling to ₹223 crore, mainly due to asset quality challenges in its credit card and microlending books.

With investors concerned about the bank’s future performance, the RBL Bank share price hit an intraday low of ₹176.5 on the NSE during the trading session.

RBL Bank Q2 results: net profit drops

RBL Bank’s Q2 results for the quarter ending September 30, 2024, revealed a post-tax net profit of ₹223 crore, down from ₹294 crore in the same period last year and ₹372 crore in the preceding June quarter.

The decline in profitability was largely attributed to challenges in the bank’s microfinance and credit card segments, which have impacted its asset quality.

The gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio slightly improved, declining by 0.25% to 2.88%. However, this was not enough to offset concerns about the bank’s credit performance.

RBL Bank stock price hits 52-week low

The RBL Bank stock price opened with a loss of nearly 6% in early trading on October 21, before sliding further to a 14% decline, marking a 52-week low of ₹176.5 per share.

Despite a 15% growth in advances, the bank’s core net interest income saw only a modest 9% rise, reaching ₹1,615 crore.

This slower growth is tied to ongoing asset quality concerns in both the microfinance and credit card sectors.

Source: TradingView

The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) also contracted, dropping to 5.04% from 5.54% in the previous year.

RBL Bank’s management indicated that it may take up to nine months for the NIM to recover to its target range of 5.4-5.5%.

Slower growth in the credit card business

In the second quarter, RBL Bank saw a 32% surge in other income to ₹618 crore, which provided some relief amid slower interest income growth.

However, the bank’s provisions rose sharply to ₹618 crore, driven by increased stress on its asset quality. The management expects credit costs to follow a similar trend in the upcoming third quarter.

RBL Bank also reported a 20% increase in deposits, with a focus on attracting more non-bulk, granular liabilities. In the credit card segment, growth is expected to either match or trail overall asset growth as the bank shifts its strategy.

Rather than focusing on portfolio expansion, RBL Bank aims to improve the quality of its credit card portfolio by generating more business from existing customers.

Should you buy, sell, or hold RBL Bank shares?

The recent decline in the RBL Bank share price, coupled with its weak Q2 results, has raised questions about the bank’s near-term prospects.

Investors should weigh the risks associated with the ongoing asset quality issues, particularly in the credit card and microlending books, before making any decisions.

For those considering investing in RBL Bank shares, it may be wise to wait and see how the bank addresses these challenges in the coming quarters.

With provisions on the rise and net interest margins under pressure, caution is advised.

However, for long-term investors, the bank’s efforts to improve its deposit base and enhance portfolio quality may offer potential growth opportunities once the asset quality stabilizes.

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