Sweden is set to implement a new policy that increases payments for immigrants who voluntarily leave the country, with incentives rising significantly by 2026.

Under the plan, the current payment, capped at 40,000 Swedish kronor, will increase to a maximum of 350,000 kronor.

The policy shift, announced in September 2024, aligns with the government’s goal to reshape its migration framework.

Supported by the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, the initiative is part of a broader effort to manage immigration levels, reduce social strain, and promote integration.

Boost in payments to drive return migration

Sweden’s current incentive for immigrants who choose to return to their home countries is modest, with 10,000 kronor offered per adult and 5,000 kronor per child, subject to a family cap of 40,000 kronor.

The upcoming changes mark a significant increase, with payments reaching up to 350,000 kronor by 2026.

This adjustment aims to encourage voluntary returns, easing pressure on social services and fostering a sustainable migration system.

The policy is part of a broader shift that includes stricter entry requirements for low-skilled labour.

Other European countries’ return incentives compared

Sweden is not alone in offering financial incentives for voluntary return migration.

Denmark leads with payments of over $15,000 per person, while Norway offers around $1,400, and France provides approximately $2,800. Germany’s incentive stands at about $2,000.

These measures reflect a regional trend where European countries offer financial support to immigrants who choose to return, helping them resettle in their countries of origin.

Along with increasing return payments, Sweden plans to tighten its work permit criteria for low-skilled workers.

By June 2025, immigrants will need to earn at least 80% of the median Swedish salary—35,600 kronor (approximately $3,455)—to qualify for a work permit.

The new law aims to prioritise skilled labour, directing opportunities toward domestic workers for lower-wage jobs. Certain professions, such as domestic care, will remain exempt from this rule to ensure critical services are maintained.

Attracting highly skilled immigrants

Despite the restrictions on low-skilled workers, Sweden is enhancing its appeal for highly skilled immigrants.

A proposal to adopt the EU’s new Blue Card Directive aims to attract top talent by lowering salary thresholds and expanding eligibility criteria. This change is expected to take effect on January 1, 2025.

The government’s strategy is to boost Sweden’s competitiveness by ensuring that employers in advanced sectors can access the skilled workforce they need.

In a shift from previous decades, Sweden is experiencing net emigration for the first time in over 50 years.

Between January and May 2024, 5,700 more people left Sweden than arrived, driven by stricter immigration policies and fewer asylum seekers.

The Swedish Ministry of Justice shared in a social media post that 2024 is set to see the lowest number of asylum-seekers since 1997.

The trend reflects a broader move towards sustainable migration policies, aiming to balance integration efforts and reduce social exclusion.

Indians lead the surge in departures

A notable trend in Sweden’s emigration patterns is the increase in Indian nationals returning to their home country.

In the first half of 2024, 2,837 Indians left Sweden, a 171% rise compared to the same period in 2023.

Despite this, Indians remain one of the largest immigrant groups in Sweden, second only to Ukrainians in terms of arrivals this year.

The number of Indian arrivals has dropped to 2,461 from 3,681 in the same period last year, marking a shift after years of steady growth.

Sweden’s crackdown on immigration sees results

Sweden’s stricter stance on immigration has led to a significant drop in new arrivals and an increase in emigration.

The Swedish Migration Agency projects continued declines in asylum applications and rising emigration in the coming years.

Immigration fell by 15% year-on-year in early 2024, while emigration surged by 60%.

The policy changes follow a shift that began in 2015 when Sweden acknowledged the need for a more controlled approach to migration after years of high intake.

Sweden’s history as a “humanitarian superpower” has seen a transformation.

In 2014, the country received over 81,000 asylum-seekers, and the number nearly doubled in 2015.

The nation has since moved towards more controlled migration, particularly following the rise of the Moderate Party and Sweden Democrats in 2022.

The government’s recent actions represent a significant shift in Sweden’s approach to immigration, prioritising integration and economic sustainability over previous humanitarian ambitions.

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The highly anticipated 2024 US presidential election between Republican candidate Donald Trump and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, representing the Democrats, is set for November 5.

With the political stakes high and several critical events unfolding around the election, the timeline leading to Inauguration Day in January will be closely followed.

Timeline of key events from election day to inauguration

November 5, Election Day: On November 5, millions of Americans will cast their votes.

The final result might not be known immediately, as officials may need days to count mail-in ballots if the race is close, extending the wait for a definitive outcome.

November 26, Trump sentencing date: In a pivotal development, former President Donald Trump, the first sitting or former US president to be convicted of a crime, faces sentencing on November 26.

Trump was found guilty in a Manhattan case involving falsified documents connected to a hush-money payment.

The sentencing, initially set for September 18, was postponed. Trump has denied all wrongdoing.

December 17, Electors convene for Electoral College vote: On December 17, members of the Electoral College will meet in their respective states and in the District of Columbia to cast their official votes for the president and vice president.

This process solidifies the outcome of the election, with each state’s electors reflecting the popular vote in their respective jurisdictions.

December 25, Deadline for electoral vote submission: The votes from the Electoral College must be received by the president of the Senate—currently Vice President Kamala Harris—by December 25.

This is also the deadline for submitting the results to the national archivist for certification.

Electoral College count and inauguration

January 6, Electoral College vote count and certification: On January 6, the joint session of Congress will meet to count and certify the Electoral College votes.

Vice President Harris will preside over the proceedings and announce the official winner of the presidential election.

This process comes with heightened significance following the events of January 6, 2021, when the US Capitol was stormed by Trump supporters attempting to halt the certification of Joe Biden’s victory.

To prevent future disruptions, Congress passed the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022.

Under the new rules, it now requires one-fifth of the House and Senate to initiate a challenge to a state’s election results—a stricter threshold compared to the previous requirement of just one member from each chamber.

January 20, Inauguration Day: The winner of the presidential election, along with their vice president, will be sworn into office on January 20, 2025.

The ceremony will mark the official transition of power, bringing the election process to a close.

Impact of the 2024 election

The outcome of this election could set the direction of the country’s future policies and political landscape, with Trump seeking a return to the White House and Harris aiming to extend Democratic leadership.

The stakes are particularly high as the election unfolds against the backdrop of legal proceedings, a closely divided electorate, and a shifting global landscape.

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Car sales in Europe took a hit in September, marking the first consecutive monthly decline in over two years as the region’s economy remained sluggish and consumers cut back on spending

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reported a 4.2% drop in new-car registrations, totaling 1.12 million units compared to the same period last year.

Despite rising electric vehicle (EV) sales, the decline in combustion-engine models and weak consumer spending contributed to the drop.

Economic challenges impact automakers

European automakers struggle to boost sales in a stagnating economy, compounded by rising interest rates.

Stellantis NV, the parent company of Fiat and Peugeot, was among the hardest hit, with its registrations plummeting by 26% across the region.

While markets like the UK and Spain saw slight upticks in sales, major economies such as Germany, France, and Italy recorded declines, dragging down the region’s overall performance.

The European economy’s slowdown and tightening financial conditions have made it difficult for automakers to entice buyers.

“Higher interest rates are weighing on consumers’ purchasing power,” said an industry analyst in a Bloomberg report, adding that this trend could continue into the next quarter.

EV sales offer some relief

One bright spot for automakers was the rebound in EV sales, particularly in the UK, where deliveries surged by 24% in September.

Automakers have been heavily discounting their EV offerings to comply with government mandates for zero-emissions vehicles.

In Germany, where the government is debating new incentives for EV buyers, sales of electric cars grew by 8.7%.

Despite this, year-to-date EV sales in Europe are still down by 2.6%.

The outlook for the sector remains uncertain, with planned tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese-made EVs set to take effect in the coming weeks.

Both the European Union and China are negotiating to find alternatives to these tariffs, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz voicing his opposition to the levies.

Automakers adjust strategies

As consumers remain wary of the high costs associated with EVs, European automakers are pivoting toward more affordable models.

Renault recently unveiled its €25,000 ($27,053) R5, while Stellantis launched its €23,300 Citroën ë-C3 city car.

Despite these efforts, Volkswagen AG is considering factory closures in Germany due to declining demand, while Porsche AG and Mercedes-Benz have scaled back their EV ambitions.

The EV downturn raises concerns for manufacturers like Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Renault, who risk facing up to €15 billion in fines if they fail to meet stricter European fleet-emission standards set to come into effect soon.

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HSBC has named Pam Kaur as its new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), marking a historic first in the bank’s 160-year history.

Kaur’s appointment follows the leadership reshuffle that saw Georges Elhedery take over as CEO earlier this year.

Set to assume her role on January 1, 2025, Kaur brings over a decade of experience within HSBC to the position, succeeding Jon Bingham, who served as interim CFO.

Her promotion aligns with the bank’s strategic plans to restructure its operations and enhance its presence in key markets, including Asia.

The bank is simultaneously consolidating its structure to streamline operations and drive growth.

Who is Pam Kaur?

Pam Kaur, 60, brings a wealth of experience to her new role as HSBC’s CFO.

Having joined the bank in 2013 as Group Head of Internal Audit, she later served as Chief Risk and Compliance Officer.

Kaur’s financial expertise spans over three decades across multiple global institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB, and Citigroup.

She is a Fellow of The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales and holds an MBA in Finance from Panjab University in India.

Kaur’s career trajectory has been marked by her strategic leadership in risk management, audit, and compliance.

Her appointment as CFO makes her the first woman in HSBC’s history to hold this position, a significant milestone for the bank. In addition to her role at HSBC, Kaur serves as a non-executive director at Abrdn plc, further showcasing her industry influence.

HSBC’s restructuring plan targets growth in Asia

Alongside Kaur’s appointment, HSBC has announced a major restructuring plan, effective from January 1, 2025.

The bank will be restructured into four key units: the Hong Kong unit, the UK unit, the corporate and institutional banking unit, and the international wealth and premier banking unit.

This strategic shift aims to enhance efficiency by consolidating HSBC’s commercial banking operations outside the UK and Hong Kong with its global banking and markets business.

The new structure is designed to streamline decision-making and reduce redundancy across regions.

The bank’s reorganisation reflects a broader strategic focus on Asia, where HSBC sees higher growth potential. HSBC has been scaling down its presence in Western markets such as Canada, France, and the US while intensifying its focus on expanding operations in Asia.

This pivot is intended to leverage the region’s economic dynamism, aligning with the bank’s long-term growth strategy.

HSBC employs approximately 214,000 people worldwide, with a significant concentration of its workforce in Asia.

The bank’s strategic shift to restructure into four divisions is aimed at simplifying its operations and driving profitability.

The consolidation of its commercial banking and corporate banking activities is expected to provide operational synergies, enabling the bank to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

This restructuring is part of HSBC’s broader strategy to strengthen its position in Asia, including key markets like China and Southeast Asia.

By prioritizing these regions, HSBC aims to balance its global footprint while reducing exposure to low-growth Western markets.

The move also comes as part of a response to economic headwinds in Europe and North America, where the bank has been gradually winding down operations in less profitable markets.

Pam Kaur to help HSBC in restructuring

As HSBC’s CFO, Pam Kaur will play a crucial role in overseeing the bank’s financial strategy amid a rapidly changing global economic environment.

Her focus will likely include guiding the bank through its restructuring and ensuring that HSBC maintains a balanced approach to growth and cost management.

Given her background in risk management, Kaur is well-positioned to navigate the challenges posed by evolving regulatory landscapes and economic uncertainties.

Kaur’s appointment also signals HSBC’s commitment to diversity at the highest levels of leadership.

Her role as the first female CFO in the bank’s history is a step towards greater inclusivity in an industry traditionally dominated by men.

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Citi Research has raised its three-month forecast for gold prices, citing a weaker labor market in the US and more rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve. 

The bank has raised its three-month forecast for gold to $2,800 per ounce from $2,700 per ounce previously. 

Additionally, the 6 to 12-month forecast for gold prices was at $3,000 per ounce, the bank said. 

As for silver, the bank sees prices at $40 per ounce for the 6-12 month period from $38 an ounce previously. 

“We note that gold and silver have performed extremely well despite weakening China retail physical demand and rising US interest rates since the Fed cut 50 (basis points) and payrolls beat last month,” Reuters quoted Citi Research in a report. 

Gold hovers near record highs

Gold prices remained near record-high levels on Tuesday buoyed by rate cut optimism and uncertainties surrounding the US elections. 

The December gold contract on COMEX rose to a record high of $2,755.40 per ounce on Monday. At the time of writing, the yellow metal was at $2,750.50 per ounce. 

“Gold is one of this year’s strongest performing commodities, with gains of more than 30% so far, supported by rate cut optimism, strong central bank buying, and robust Asian purchases,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Group, said in a note. 

“We believe the macro picture combined with safe-haven demand amid an escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine will drive gold to new highs,” Patterson added. 

Geopolitical tensions boil

At the weekend, a Hezbollah-operated drone exploded near Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence. This has led to increased expectations that Israel is planning a large-scale attack on Iran. 

The commodities market has been on tenterhooks since October 1, when Iran fired ballistic missiles toward Israel. 

Geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand for gold increased significantly, following the attack as investors waited for Israel’s response. 

Recently, Israel assassinated the leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon and of Hamas in Gaza, while showing no signs of reining in its ground and aerial offensives, according to a Reuters report. 

Escalating tensions bode well for gold as it is considered a safe-haven asset. Traders invest more in commodities such as gold during times of duress. 

US rate cut expectations

Gold also tends to perform well when interest rates are lower. 

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November, However, at the beginning of the month, expectations were for a 50 bps cut. 

Traders now see an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the US Federal Reserve in November, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

In its September meeting, the Fed had cut interest rates by 50 bps, surprising the market. 

Hotter inflation in the US and a resilient labor market had prompted traders to scale back expectations of a larger rate cut in November. 

Though the November rate cut is likely to be smaller in percentage terms, any kind of cut in rates boosts sentiments as gold is a non-yielding asset, unlike bonds.  

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