Bitcoin price held steady at around $68,000 on Monday morning as global tensions eased following the mild Israeli retaliation against Iran and as odds of Donald Trump winning next week’s general election rose. The coin has soared by almost  30% from its lowest level in September. 

October and November are Bitcoin’s strongest months

Bitcoin’s recovery could continue because October and November are its strongest months in the market. 

Data by CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin’s average return in October since 2013 was 21%. Its November returns have averaged about 465. The other top months for the coin are in February, March, and April.

As a result, as shown below, the fourth quarter is usually the best-performing quarter in a year, with an average return of 82%. 

Therefore, there are rising odds that Bitcoin price will continue doing well in the coming months because of this seasonality. 

Bitcoin ETFs are soaring

The other important catalyst for Bitcoin is that ETF inflows have continued rising, signaling that there is a strong demand. 

Data by SoSoValue shows that these funds have had inflows in the last three consecutive days. They added $402 million in assets on Friday, $188 million on Thursday, and $192 million on Wednesday. Altogether, these funds had inflows worth almost $22 billion this year, higher than what most analysts were expecting. 

Recent data shows that most of these inflows have come from institutional investors like hedge funds and other money managers. Some of the most notable funds that have invested in Bitcoin are Citadel, Millennium, Susquehanna, and Jane Street. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have also invested in these coins.

Data also shows that many companies have invested in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin followed by Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Tesla, Coinbase, Hut 8 Mining, and Block, formerly known as Square.

At some point, many companies will learn from MicroStrategy’s success and decide to invest in Bitcoin. Besides, MSTR is now valued at over $45 billion, much higher than its Bitcoin holdings, which are worth $17 billion. 

Some of the top companies that could allocate some cash into Bitcoin are the likes of Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, which are sitting on top of billions of dollars in cash. 

Read more: Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) token hits $52m value

Donald Trump odds are rising

The other potential catalyst for Bitcoin price is that the odds of Donald Trump winning the US election have risen substantially in the past few months. 

Data on Polymarket shows that he has a 66% chance of winning the election compared to Kamala Harris’ 34%. This spread has been widening in the past few weeks as most analysts expect Harris to lose. For example, some solid Democrats like David Axelrod described her CNN town hall as a word salad city. 

Kalshi, another popular prediction platform, has a 62% chance, while PredictIt has a 61% chance of him winning.

Donald Trump is viewed favorably by most crypto investors because he has pledged to make the US the capital of the crypto industry. 

Still, it is too early to tell since most traditional polls show that the election is close, especially in most battleground states. Also, as we saw in 2016 and 2020, polls can often be wrong. 

Federal Reserve interest rates and US debt

The other reason why Bitcoin price could go parabolic is that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates. It has already delivered one jumbo cut this year, and analysts expect it to cut rates two more times this year.

The Fed is not the only central bank that is cutting rates. In China, the bank has slashed them and also announced a series of stimulus measures. Banks like the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank have all cut rates.

The mountain in the room is the soaring US public debt, which has moved to its highest level on record. A few months after it crossed the $35 trillion mark, it has now jumped to over $35.8 trillion, meaning that it will cross the $36 trillion level soon. Bitcoin is widely seen as a good alternative to buy as a hedge against the soaring debt. 

Bitcoin price formed a golden cross

BTC chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few days. Most notably, it has formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) have formed a crossover. 

Bitcoin sits slightly below the descending trendline that connects the highest levels since March. Therefore, it is a matter of time before the coin crosses the resistance at $70,000 and hits an all-time high. 

Indeed, data by Polymarket shows that the odds of Bitcoin hitting its record high this year have risen to 74% this year. The odds stood at below 50% in October this year.

Bitcoin Odds | Polymarket

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Crude oil prices continued their recent downward trend as geopolitical risks eased during the weekend. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crashed by 4.35% to $68.50, while Brent, the global benchmark, dropped by 4.57% to $72.3. The two oil benchmarks have remained in a deep bear market after falling by over 21% from the highest point this year.

Israel and Iran’s tensions ease

Crude oil prices dived after Israel launched a major missile attack against Iran, its long-term enemy. 

Israel launched a pre-dawn attack focused on Iran’s military sites, including locations that were used to manufacture missiles that hit Israel a few weeks ago.

The retaliation killed four people in Iran. While it was a strong retaliation, analysts believe that it was a more modest one. 

The other options would have led to a big escalation since Israel was considering attacking Iran’s nuclear and oil infrastructure, which would have led to more retaliations. 

The more modest retaliation is most likely because of the substantial pressure from the United States, which has been working to prevent the situation from escalating because of the upcoming election. 

Iran will likely not react aggressively to this attack because its economy is not doing well, with the unemployment rate rising gradually.

In a statement, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Al Khamenei, said that the attack should not be exaggerated or downplayed. He did not expressly call for a retaliation, saying that the military would consider the response.

Therefore, the ending of the retaliatory attacks removes one of the most important bullish cases for crude oil in the past few weeks.

Striking oil infrastructure would have affected Iran’s oil production and shipments, which are substantial because of the volume it ships every day. 

Data shows that Iran is one of the top crude oil exporters, producing over 4 million barrels a day. It has a 4% market share, meaning that disruption would have an impact on flows.

Striking Iran’s nuclear sites would have a similar impact by increasing tensions in the Middle East. 

Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East is continuing as Israel continues battling Hamas and Hezbollah. This war has had a limited impact on the energy sector for now.

US election impacts

The next important catalyst for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil is next week’s general election in the US, in which Donald Trump will face Kamala Harris. 

Official polling data shows that the election will be highly close. Data by the New York Times shows that Harris leads by 49% nationally against Donald Trump’s 48%. 

The two are neck-on-neck in most swing states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If the results match the paper’s poll, it means that Harris would win 276 electoral college vote against Trump’s 262.

However, the prediction market shows that Trump has a higher chance of winning the election. 

A Kamala Harris presidency would be a continuation of Joe Biden’s policies, meaning that its impact on oil prices will be limited.

On the other hand, a Trump win would have some immediate impact on oil prices. One of his policies is drill, baby, drill. This is where he has pledged to deregulate the industry and encourage more production.

In reality, however, the US president has a limited impact on oil prices, as we have seen during the Biden presidency. 

Trump would be bad for the oil market for two reasons. First, by encouraging production, it would push prices lower in the long term. Also, such policies would push Saudi Arabia to increase production in a bid to boost its market share. 

Second, Trump’s trade wars would have an impact on the global economy, which would also affect demand. Last week, the IMF even downgraded the economic outlook, citing the risks to a Trump election.

Crude oil price has also dived as the impact of the recent Chinese stimulus faded. This explains why Chinese stock indices like the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite have moved into a deep bear market after falling by over 20% from their highest levels this year.

WTI crude oil price forecast 

Crude oil chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped sharply on Monday, reaching a low of $68.85, its lowest level since October 1. Brent, the global benchmark, has also done that.

WTI has remained below the important support level at $72.61, its lowest point on June 4. It also remains below the 50-day and 100 day moving average, pointing to more downside.

Therefore, the two will likely continue falling, with the WTI targeting the key support at $65.48, its lowest level on September 10th. A break below that level will point to more downside soon. If this happens, Brent will also continue falling to the next point at $70.

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The USD/JPY exchange rate rose for the fifth consecutive week ahead of several important economic data from the United States and the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. It soared to a high of 153.20, its highest level since July, and is about 10% higher than the lowest point in September.

US economic data ahead

The USD to JPY pair will react to several important economic data from the US, which will provide more information about the next actions by the Federal Reserve.

The first data will come out on Tuesday when the Conference Bureau publishes the latest consumer confidence report.

Analysts expect the data to show that confidence rose to 99 in October as inflation retreated and the labor market improved.

Consumer confidence is one of the most important economic numbers because of its implications on the economy. Highly confident consumers spend more money, boosting the economy, a notable thing since consumer spending is the biggest part of the US GDP.

The other important data will be released on Wednesday when ADP publishes the October private payroll data. Analysts see the numbers coming in at 101k, a big drop from the 143k it made last year.

After that, the US will publish the first estimate of the third quarter GDP data. Economists expect the numbers to reveal that the economy expanded by 3% last quarter, meaning that it is doing relatively well.

The most important data will be the US nonfarm payroll (NFP) data for October, which will come out on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the economy added 111k jobs this month, a big drop from the 254k it added in September. 

The unemployment rate is expected to come in at 4.1%, while the average hourly earnings will increase by 4.0%.

These numbers will be important because of their impact on the Federal Reserve, which is considering what to do in its November 7 meeting. Analysts expect the bank to either maintain rates unchanged or cut by 25 basis points. 

Crude oil price crashes

The USD/JPY pair also jumped as crude oil slumped by over 4.5% on Monday morning. Brent, the global benchmark, dropped by 4.35%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 4.36%. 

Crude oil crashed after Israel launched a more modest retaliation attack than expected. It focused on Iran’s missile manufacturing plants, avoiding a more severe attack on its oil infrastructure and nuclear locations.

Iran also hinted that it will not have a severe retaliation since its economy is already ailing. Therefore, analysts believe that these tensions have now eased, meaning that oil supply will continue with no major interruptions. 

The other important USD/JPY news is the upcoming US election, which will happen next week. Recent polling data shows that Donald Trump has an upper edge than Kamala Harris. For example, his lead on Polymarket has continued to widen in the past few months. 

A Donald Trump win will be positive for the US dollar because of his focus on tariffs. Higher tariffs will likely to more geopolitical tensions and higher inflation in the US.

Bank of Japan interest rate decision

The other important USD/JPY news will be Thursday’s Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision. Analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25%. Kazuo Ueda, the bank’s governor, also hinted at this during a meeting at Washington last week.

The BoJ will then deliver its economic outlook report and a press conference in which it will provide hints on what to expect later this year. 

The most recent data showed that core inflation in Tokyo moved below the BoJ’s target of 2.0%. As such, there are signs that the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade will not continue.

The other key USD/JPY pair news is the weekend election in which the ruling party lost its majority in parliament. This is a notable event since it was the first time in fifteen years that the party lost the majority. 

It is also notable since the party selected Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister recently, meaning that he will need to form a coalition government.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has done well in the past few months. It has risen from the September low of 140 to near 154, its highest level since July 30th. 

The pair has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which are about to have a bullish crossover. 

Also, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed upwards. Therefore, the path of the least resistance point will be 154.52, its lowest point on June 4. A move above that level will point to more gains.

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Ethereum price remains in a deep bear market, continuing to underperform other top cryptocurrencies like Tron, Bitcoin, and Solana. The ETH token was trading at $2,500 on Monday, a few points above last week’s low of $2,385. It has dropped by almost 40% from its highest level this year, giving it a market cap of $300 billion.

Ethereum sluggish ETF inflows

The first reason why Ethereum price has remained in a bear market is because of the ongoing sluggish demand of ETFs from institutional investors. 

Ethereum ETFs have had cumulative outflows of $504 million, bringing the total assets to $6.8 billion. Before the ETF approvals, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) had over $10 billion in assets. 

Blackrock’s ETHA has $1.09 billion in assets, while Grayscale’s ETHE now has $3.95 billion. Fidelity’s FETH has $423 million, while Bitwise’s ETHW has $241 million.

In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs are firing on all cylinders, with cumulative inflows of almost $22 billion. They all now hold over $65 billion in assets, a sign that investors are more comfortable holding them. 

Read more: Bitcoin price prediction: 4+ reasons BTC could go parabolic

ETH exchange reserves have risen

The other important reason why Ethereum price has struggled is that the amount of coins in exchanges has risen in the past few months. Data by CryptoQuant shows that the amount has risen from 15.4 million in July to over 15.8 million.

A big increase in the amount of Ethereum in exchanges is a sign that many holders are starting to sell their coins. Some of the most prominent sellers were the likes of Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation, who have deposited thousands of coins to exchanges in the past few months.

There are signs that many investors have started to sell their coins. For example, data by Bybit shows that a user deposited Ethereum worth $44.8 million coins to Coinbase on Monday morning. Another user deposited coins worth $750k, while another one moved coins worth $33 million on Saturday.

Ethereum is losing market share

The other important reason why Ethereum price has underperformed the market is that it has continued to lose market share across all sectors. 

First, on stablecoins, it has lost its share to Justin Sun’s Tron, which has now become the biggest mover of Tether, the biggest stablecoin in the industry. Data by TronScan shows that the network had a Tether trading volume of $34 billion on Sunday. In most cases, the figure is usually much higher than that.

Second, Ethereum is no longer the favorite platform among developers because of its slow speeds and high transaction costs. A good example of this is in the meme coin industry, where Solana has become the best chain for that. 

As a result, meme coins like Bonk, Popcat, and Cat in a Dog World have attained a $1 billion+ market cap. All Solana meme coins have a market cap of over $11.2 billion, a figure that may continue growing.

Third, data shows that Ethereum is not the favorite chain for DEX traders. According to DeFi Llama, Solana’s DEX transactions jumped by 20% in the last seven days to $15.7 billion, while Ethereum’s dropped by 0.20% to $8.8 billion. 

Ethereum could lose more share when Uniswap, the biggest DEX in its ecosystem launches Unichain, its layer 2 network. 

Additionally, Ethereum has lost market share in industries like Decentralized Public Infrastructure (DePIN) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT).

Ethereum price forecast

Ethereum price chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the ETH price formed a double-top pattern around the $4,000 level. It then moved below the neckline at $2,810, its lowest point on May 1, and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point.

Ethereum also formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) crossed each other. 

Worse, the token has formed a bearish pennant pattern, a popular bearish sign. In most periods, this is one of the most bearish signs in the market. 

With the triangle part of the pennant nearing its confluence, there is a likelihood that it will have a bearish breakout soon. If this happens, Ethereum could drop to the next key support at $2,000, its lowest point in August.

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