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Cardano price has been left in the dust this year, as investors focused on its lagging market share across the blockchain industry and its high valuation. ADA has plunged by over 35% this year, while Bitcoin has soared by 65% and moved to its highest level on record. 

Cardano is still one of the biggest players in the crypto industry, with a market cap of over $12 billion.

The biggest ghost chain

Cardano is a blockchain network started by Charles Hoskinson in 2017, meaning that it has now turned seven years. 

It had two major claims for fame: Hoskinson was an Ethereum co-founder and its technology was backed by peer research.

Cardano then took off in 2021 as investors started to look for a climate-friendly alternative to Ethereum, which was using the proof-of-work approach at the time. 

Three years since that time, Cardano has had no major activity, which has made it one of the biggest ghost chains in the industry. The other most prominent ones are the likes of Ripple, IOTA, and EOS. 

A ghost chain is defined as a blockchain network that has no developers working on its technology. 

A good layer-1 and layer-2 network should have a good market share in industries like decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, non-fungible tokens (NFT), decentralized public infrastructure (DePIN), and even meme coins. 

Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem

The Decentralized Finance industry is the biggest segment in the blockchain sector. As such, for any network to succeed, it needs to have a good presence in it an industry with over $90.1 billion in assets.

Unfortunately, Cardano does not have a big share in the sector. Data shows that the network has just $226 million in total value locked (TVL), making it the 27th biggest player in the sector. It only has 37 DeFi dApps in the ecosystem, including the likes of Minswap, Liqwid, Indigo, and Splash Protocol.

A $226 million TVL is a tiny amount for a blockchain network valued at over $12 billion. In contrast, Base Blockchain, which was launched by Coinbase in 2023, has accumulated 1.12 million active addresses and a TVL of $2.62 billion. 

Cardano DeFi TVL chart by TradingView

Read more: Will Cardano decline despite uptick in TVL and trading volume?

Cardano DEX networks and payments

Taking a deeper dive into Cardano’s ecosystem shows that most of the networks have little going on. For example, MinSwap, its biggest dApp is a decentralized exchange network that handled just $148,000 in transactions in the last 24 hours. SundaeSwap also handled $172k in the same period.

Altogether, all the DEX networks in Cardano handled just $17.5 million in the last seven days, making it the 33rd chain in the industry. Its DEX ecosystem is smaller than networks like Cronos, Near, Kaia, and StarkNet. 

Newer blockchains like Base, Aptos, Mantle, and Dexalot are handling more volume on a single day than what Cardano does in a week.

This performance is mostly because Cardano has no presence in the meme coin industry that has grown rapidly this year. The industry is so big such that all meme coins are now valued at over $65 billion.

Meanwhile, stablecoin-enabled payments have become the biggest part of the blockchain industry. For example, Tron handles USDT payments worth over $40 billion a day. 

In contrast, Cardano, a network that has fast speeds and low transaction costs, has just $20 million in stablecoins. 

Read more: Cardano price prediction: what’s next for ADA as Bitcoin struggles?

Cardano’s NFT volume

Another industry that Cardano should be dominating is the non-fungible token (NFT). In all fairness, the industry has imploded recently, with sales and floor prices falling. 

However, a closer look at historical data shows that Cardano did not have a sizable market share in the sector.  

According to CryptoSlam, the cumulative NFT sales in Cardano stand at over $650 million. In contrast, Ethereum has handled $44.4 billion in NFT sales, while Solana, Bitcoin, Ronin, and Polygon have all processed over $1.4 billion. 

Additionally, the network does not have a big presence in the gaming industry that is now dominated by the likes of Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and Immutable X. Its share is so low that DappRadar shows that games in its ecosystem have no Unique Active Wallet (UAW).

Therefore, these numbers mean that Cardano is one of the most overvalued assets in the crypto industry. 

Cardano price analysis

ADA chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the ADA price bottomed at $0.313, where it failed to move below several times since July 5. Its attempts to drop below that level failed at least three times, meaning that it has formed a triple-bottom pattern. 

Cardano has remained slightly below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, while Cardano is still severely overvalued, there is a likelihood that it will have a bullish breakout. This forecast will be confirmed if it rises above the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since June 7. 

The post Cardano price prediction: will this ghost chain rebound? appeared first on Invezz

In the cryptocurrency landscape, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is once again garnering investor attention with a notable price breakout, signalling a potential rally ahead. Following months of consolidation, SHIB’s bullish sentiment is primarily driven by recent price action and the broader market trend.

Technical indicators, including the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and rising on-chain metrics, are showing positive signs.

Traders and investors are closely watching whether SHIB will confirm the breakout by closing a daily candle above $0.000021—a move that could propel its price by as much as 50%.

Shiba Inu’s technical analysis and key price levels

SHIB’s recent price movements reveal an imminent end to its prolonged consolidation phase, having broken free from a descending trendline set since March 2024.

Traders await further confirmation, particularly a daily close above the $0.000021 level.

Should SHIB achieve this, it could initiate a powerful uptrend, targeting the $0.000029 mark.

The breakout has been supported by SHIB’s sustained position above the 200-day EMA, a key metric indicating a general upward trend.

  • Resistance at $0.000021: A daily close above this point would validate the breakout, pushing SHIB towards $0.000029, representing an approximate 50% gain.
  • 200-day EMA support: SHIB’s position above this technical line reinforces bullish momentum.

The asset’s current price action underscores the market’s positive outlook, aligned with Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, which has lent support to meme coins and altcoins alike.

However, a failure to break $0.000021 may see SHIB face renewed pressure from bears, potentially reversing its trajectory.

Shiba Inu’s promising technical indicators are mirrored by its on-chain metrics, which further validate a bullish sentiment among market participants.

According to data from Coinglass, SHIB’s Long/Short ratio currently stands at 0.97, suggesting traders are predominantly optimistic.

Will Shiba Inu sustain the rally?

At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading around $0.0000191, up over 6% in the past 24 hours.

During this same period, its trading volume has soared by 125%, underscoring a marked rise in investor engagement.

High trading volumes often accompany price rallies, as increased demand bolsters upward momentum, which is currently the case for SHIB.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Should SHIB maintain this trajectory and close above the critical $0.000021 level, it is well-positioned to extend its rally toward the next major resistance point at $0.000029.

The next few trading sessions will be crucial, as a sustained bullish performance will confirm whether SHIB is poised for a prolonged rally.

While optimism runs high, it is essential to consider potential risks in SHIB’s journey towards higher price levels.

Market conditions, such as Bitcoin’s price direction, may impact SHIB’s trajectory. If SHIB fails to secure a daily close above the $0.000021 level, it may face renewed selling pressure, potentially pulling its price down.

The post Will Shiba Inu rally 50% after breaking key resistance? appeared first on Invezz

European banking giants UBS and Standard Chartered reported robust third-quarter earnings, outperforming market expectations and showcasing strategic growth across wealth management and international markets.

While UBS saw profits soar on the back of its integration of Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered leveraged strong performance in its wealth management division to revise its 2024 income guidance upward.

Together, these results underscore a favorable landscape for major European banks navigating evolving markets and competitive pressures.

Standard Chartered’s pre-tax profit surged 37% year-over-year, reaching $1.81 billion and surpassing analyst estimates of $1.59 billion.

The bank’s net interest income of $2.6 billion also outpaced projections.

Buoyed by its wealth management division’s record-breaking performance, the London-headquartered bank raised its 2024 income growth forecast, now expecting operating income to rise by up to 10% in 2024, up from its previous 7% projection.

CEO Bill Winters noted the bank’s focus on enhancing high-returning divisions, highlighting its investments in affluent client services as part of an ongoing shift to target more profitable segments.

Additionally, Standard Chartered’s net interest margin rose to 1.95%, up from 1.63% the previous year.

Though operating expenses increased by 3% due to inflation and business expansion, efficiency gains from the “Fit For Growth” cost-saving initiative, aimed at cutting $1.5 billion over the next three years, helped offset these costs.

Meanwhile, UBS reported a remarkable net profit of $1.43 billion, more than double the $667.5 million analysts expected.

The Swiss bank’s revenue climbed to $12.33 billion, exceeding projections and marking significant progress in its Credit Suisse integration.

Operating profit before tax came in at $1.93 billion, a sharp reversal from the $184 million loss reported in the same period last year.

The bank’s return on tangible equity rose to 7.3%, up from 5.9% in Q2, while its Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio—a measure of financial stability—stood at 14.3%.

UBS is on track to complete a $1 billion share buyback by year-end, with further repurchases anticipated in 2025.

The Credit Suisse merger has also contributed to UBS’s expense reductions, with the bank projecting $7 billion in savings by year-end from the integration, part of its larger $13 billion target by 2026.

Recent client migrations in Luxembourg and Hong Kong underscore UBS’s progress in this transition, with further migrations in Singapore and Japan scheduled for completion by year-end.

CEO Sergio Ermotti is tasked with steering the combined entity amid global economic challenges, including low inflation and a resilient Swiss franc.

As UBS and Standard Chartered navigate economic uncertainty and intensified competition from US rivals, their Q3 results reflect solid progress in wealth management and strategic positioning across key markets.

The post UBS and Standard Chartered surpass Q3 profit expectations, signal growth amid strategic shifts appeared first on Invezz

In October, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out a staggering $12 billion from Indian equities, surpassing the previous record set in March 2020.

Yet, despite these heavy withdrawals, India’s equity indices displayed resilience, thanks to unprecedented investments by domestic institutional investors (DIIs).

These domestic players stepped up in the face of FII outflows, taking local markets by storm.

With their buying momentum, DIIs may have become the largest holders of Indian equities for the first time this century, marking a shift in the ownership balance of Indian assets, a report by The Economic Times said.

The gap between FIIs and DIIs narrows

By the end of September, the gap between FII and DII ownership in NSE-listed companies had shrunk to just 109 basis points, marking a historic low.

Although full ownership data for October through December won’t be available until January, preliminary signs suggest that the trend of rising domestic ownership continued through October.

“There has been a dramatic shift in ownership in Indian capital markets over the past few quarters, with local investors taking the lead and FIIs losing influence,” commented Pranav Haldea, MD of Prime Database Group in the report.

This shift points to an evolving landscape where Indian equities are increasingly supported by local capital, which has gained resilience and scale in recent years.

Record SIPs fuel domestic market power

The growth of Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) has been a crucial factor in the rise of DIIs.

Monthly SIP inflows surpassed ₹20,000 crore in April and reached a new peak of ₹24,508.73 crore by September, underscoring a growing commitment from Indian retail investors.

Each month saw an increase, with the number of new SIPs registered hitting nearly seven million in September.

The country’s mutual fund industry’s Asset Under Management (AUM) reached Rs 66.70 lakh crore in August.

This steady inflow has provided DIIs with additional resources to counterbalance FII sales, bringing stability to the market.

Prateek Agrawal, MD and CEO, of Motilal Oswal AMC, said,

Over time, domestic money has indeed shifted from other asset classes to stocks as expected amid a rising per capita disposable income.

Empowered role of DIIs in making markets more resilient

Historically, significant FII outflows would send shockwaves through the Indian stock market, often leading to sharp corrections.

However, the dynamics have changed in recent quarters as DIIs have started playing a more substantial role.

“In the past, when FIIs sold, the market would collapse, and LIC and other domestic institutions would step in to prevent further damage. Now, things have changed,” Haldea noted.

In the September quarter, DIIs invested nearly ₹1.03 lakh crore in Indian equities, compared to the ₹55,629 crore bought by FIIs, demonstrating the capacity of domestic funds to anchor market stability.

With DIIs outpacing FIIs in October, the Indian market may be witnessing a long-term shift in ownership.

As domestic capital continues to grow, bolstered by record SIP contributions and investor interest, India’s financial markets are likely to become increasingly resilient against global volatility.

The post Are DIIs becoming the new owners of Indian equities as FIIs flee? appeared first on Invezz

Haleon (HLN) share price has retreated in the past few weeks, erasing some of the gains made earlier this year. Its London stock dropped to 375p, its lowest point since August 29, while its American ADR fell to $9.90, down by 7% from its highest level this year.

Haleon is a top FMCG company

Haleon is one of the biggest companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. It emerged from GlaxoSmithKline, which spun it off into an independent company in 2022.

Since then, other companies have done that. Johnson & Johnson created Kenvue, while 3M created Solventum, which focuses on wound care, oral care, and biopharma filtration. 

Other similar firms like Novartis and Bayer have considered those moves recently, a move that will help them to streamline their operations. 

Haleon is a major player in the FMCG industry, where it sells some of the biggest brands in areas like oral health, vitamins, minerals, and supplements, respiratory, pain relief, and digestive health. 

Some of the top brands in its portfolio are Sensodyne, Parodontax, Centrum, Theraflu, Panadol, and Advil. These are highly popular brands that are sold around the world.

Haleon and other firms in the industry have gone through a difficult time in the past few years. They have faced logistical challenges, high cost of raw materials, and weak consumer spending in most countries because of inflation.

In Haleon’s case, its annual revenue came in at $13.5 billion in 2020 and then dropped to $12.9 billion in 2021. It then bounced back and reached a high of $14.4 billion last year. 

Read more: 3M healthcare spinoff Solventum slides on NYSE debut

Haleon has solid fundamentals

Analysts believe that Haleon has some of the best fundamentals in the FMCG industry. For example, unlike Kimberly-Clark and Clorox, its brands are more defensible because it has a smaller threat from private label brands.

This is notable since more people select private label brands when shopping because they are of a higher quality and often cost much less. 

Additionally, Kenvue trades at a lower valuation metrics than other companies in the industry. It has a price-to-calendar year 2025 price-to-earnings metric of 20x, much lower than other popular brands.

For example, Church & Dwight, Beiersdorf, L’Oreal, Colgate-Palmolive, and Estee Lauder have a multiple of over 25. Similarly, other brands like Procter & Gamble and Clorox are more expensive than Haleon, despite its higher margins.

Haleon has a gross profit margin of 62.5%, higher than Kenvue’s 57.5%, Beiersdorf’s 58%, P&G’s 51%, Unilever’s 42.9%, and Church & Dwight’s 45%. Its EBITDA margin of 23% is also higher than the other companies. 

Additionally, its total returns have been relatively strong since May 2023. It has returned 16%, second only to Colgate-Palmolive, which has returned about 30%. It has beaten most of its peers in this period. 

Read more: Haleon (HLN) share price recovery faces one key hurdle

Haleon earnings ahead

The next important catalyst for the Haleon share price will be its earnings, which will come out on Friday. 

Its most recent half-year results showed that the company had an organic growth of 3.5%, with most of it happening in the second quarter. 

Most of the organic growth happened in oral health, VMS, and digestive health, whose organic revenue rose by 9.9%, and 9.2% and 4.9%, respectively. It was offset by a 4.4% and 2.3% drop in the pain relief and respiratory health segments. Haleon’s business did well because of a combination of higher volume and pricing.

Analysts expect this week’s results to show that Haleon’s revenue rose to £2,83 billion in the third-quarter. They also expect that its full-year revenue will be £11.2 billion, followed by £11.52 billion, and £12 billion in the next two financial years.

Its adjusted EBIT will also rise gradually from £2.5 billion, £2.63 billion, and £2.804 billion in the next three financial years. Therefore, the Haleon share price will do well if the company publishes strong financial results.

Analysts believe that the Haleon stock price is highly undervalued, with a 15% upside. 

Haleon share price analysis

Haleon chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the HLN share price peaked at the psychological point at 400p earlier this year. 

It has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is inside the Ichimoku cloud indicator.

Haleon’s MACD indicator has pointed downwards and moved below the zero line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicators have continued moving downwards. 

Therefore, the short-term outlook for the stock is moderately bearish, with the next point to watch being at 350p. Such a move will be bullish because it is known as a break and retest pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern.

The post Is the Haleon share price in trouble ahead of earnings? appeared first on Invezz

Decentralized exchange platform dYdX has announced a 35% reduction in its workforce as it embarks on a strategic overhaul led by returning CEO Antonio Juliano.

Juliano, who resumed leadership on October 10 after a six-month hiatus, cited a need for a leaner, more focused team to steer the company through mounting industry challenges.

This restructuring aligns with Juliano’s vision to revamp dYdX, amid growing competition and recent operational setbacks.

The workforce cut comes as other crypto firms, such as Consensys, are also downsizing, with dYdX aiming to reinvigorate its core mission while maintaining operational resilience.

Can a leaner dYdX stay competitive in DeFi?

To address competitive pressures in the decentralized finance (DeFi) market, dYdX aims to streamline its operations through targeted workforce reductions.

Juliano’s return marks a shift in strategy, focusing on the company’s core strengths and innovative goals.

As DeFi faces regulatory scrutiny and tightening market conditions, a smaller team may allow dYdX to pivot more efficiently and maintain a competitive edge.

Juliano shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that laying off 35% of the workforce was “incredibly difficult and sad” but essential for dYdX’s future.

This decision reflects a broader realignment to match Juliano’s vision for the company’s trajectory, positioning dYdX to achieve long-term growth.

He expressed confidence that the restructured team can propel dYdX forward, with a renewed emphasis on clarity and direction in the DeFi space.

dYdX’s downsizing coincides with layoffs at Consensys, where over 160 employees (about 20% of its workforce) were let go.

Consensys CEO Joseph Lubin attributed the cuts to regulatory pressures, claiming that the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s approach stifles innovation.

These cutbacks across prominent DeFi firms highlight the challenging regulatory and economic landscape, impacting innovation and job stability in the industry.

Juliano’s absence and return

Juliano’s absence earlier in the year marked a period of turbulence for dYdX, which saw both operational and security issues.

In July, dYdX reported the compromise of its v3 website, where an attacker embedded a token-draining program, exposing users to significant risks.

The platform’s stability was also tested by potential acquisition talks for parts of its derivatives software, reportedly engaging with Wintermute Trading and Selini Capital as prospective buyers.

Juliano’s return in October underscores a need for founder-led direction amid these challenges.

Juliano’s decision to return stems from his belief in the founder’s unique commitment to a company’s mission.

In early October, he stated that “the leadership needed must come from the founder,” indicating that his investment in dYdX is essential for the company to navigate its current challenges.

This founder-led approach is poised to bring stability as the company adapts to an evolving DeFi landscape.

With the DeFi sector facing intense competition and increasing regulatory oversight, dYdX’s restructuring aims to provide a sustainable model to secure market stability.

As the company focuses on core operations under Juliano’s leadership, it looks to leverage streamlined operations for future growth.

The crypto market’s volatile nature and regulatory developments will likely test this strategy, making dYdX’s approach a critical case study in adaptive leadership within the DeFi space.

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ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming has been crowned China’s wealthiest person, according to the Hurun Research Institute, displacing Nongfu Spring’s Zhong Shanshan, who led for the last three years.

Zhang’s $49.3 billion fortune eclipses Zhong’s wealth of $47.9 billion, following a tumultuous year for Zhong’s bottled water business, which faced public criticism in early 2024.

Zhang, known globally for TikTok, saw his wealth surge as ByteDance’s profits rose by nearly 30%, positioning him at the top of China’s wealth hierarchy.

This year’s rankings highlight the evolving landscape of Chinese wealth, with tech and energy sectors now leading, a shift from the once-dominant real estate sector.

Tech billionaires dominate China’s wealthiest

The rise of ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming marks a significant shift in China’s wealth composition, with tech billionaires increasingly topping the list.

Tencent CEO Pony Ma, valued at $44.4 billion, ranks third, and Colin Huang, Pinduoduo’s founder, comes fourth.

Tencent and Pinduoduo’s international expansion and revenue growth have fortified their founders’ standings.

ByteDance’s global success with TikTok exemplifies the trend of Chinese entrepreneurs targeting international markets, a strategy that now distinguishes new-generation billionaires from their predecessors.

China’s billionaire population has dropped significantly, with 142 fewer billionaires compared to the previous year, bringing the total to 753.

This 16% decline follows challenges in the Chinese economy and underperformance in the stock markets.

The billionaire count has fallen by more than 30% since its peak of 1,185 in 2021, underlining China’s economic slowdown and market volatility.

The combined wealth of China’s wealthiest individuals reached $3 trillion, marking a 10% decrease from last year.

Focus shifts from real estate to tech and energy

The Hurun China Rich List reflects a shift in Chinese wealth from real estate to technology, consumer electronics, and renewable energy sectors.

With former wealth leaders in real estate slipping, entrepreneurs in tech and energy now represent the country’s economic future.

Executives from firms like ByteDance and Pinduoduo showcase this shift, leveraging international markets to expand their wealth.

The list’s composition is a telling indicator of where China’s economic growth is anticipated in the coming years, with fewer developers but more innovators in digital and green sectors.

Hurun Research notes that today’s Chinese billionaires are markedly more global-minded.

Zhang Yiming’s ByteDance and Colin Huang’s Pinduoduo have notably ventured beyond China, with TikTok and Temu respectively gaining significant international traction.

This strategic focus on foreign markets aligns with broader economic goals as China’s domestic market growth moderates, driving entrepreneurs to seek opportunities abroad and secure their fortunes through global outreach.

The Hurun China Rich List indicates that technology and energy are now key wealth generators in China, reshaping the country’s economic landscape.

Pony Ma of Tencent and Zhang Yiming of ByteDance exemplify this transition, building fortunes through high-growth, digitally-centered ventures.

The shift from real estate to technology underscores a transformative moment for China’s economy, spotlighting innovation and internationalization as critical factors for wealth accumulation.

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In a recent interview on The Joe Rogan Experience, former President Donald Trump reignited a contentious debate by claiming that Taiwan had “stolen” America’s semiconductor industry.

Trump’s remarks echo previous accusations he’s made, asserting that Taiwan has taken control of a technology crucial to the US economy.

However, experts argue that Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor manufacturing isn’t the result of theft but rather an innovative business model and decades of investment.

As the 2024 US presidential race intensifies, the focus on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry—led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)—raises questions about what Trump’s potential return to office could mean for the global chip sector.

Trump’s perspective: tariffs and ‘protection fees’

Trump’s comments reflect his concerns about American reliance on Taiwan’s semiconductor output.

During the interview, he criticized the CHIPS Act, suggesting that US funds should not be used to benefit foreign firms setting up plants domestically.

If re-elected, Trump proposed enacting tariffs on Taiwanese chips, specifically those from TSMC, which manufactures chips for tech giants like Apple and Nvidia.

He even suggested that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense, a notion Taiwan’s officials dismissed as an unwelcome “protection fee,” according to CNN.

TSMC shares dropped by 4.3% in response, highlighting market sensitivities to geopolitical tensions.

Taiwan’s semiconductor success

Experts counter Trump’s accusations, emphasizing that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry emerged through foresight and strategic planning rather than “stealing” American technology.

TSMC, established by Morris Chang in 1987, pioneered a “pure-play foundry” model.

Instead of designing its chips, TSMC focused exclusively on manufacturing for other companies—a novel approach at the time.

This allowed TSMC to scale production, attract clients across sectors, and become a linchpin in the global semiconductor supply chain.

“TSMC’s success stems from a focus on manufacturing excellence and economies of scale, not from taking anything from the US,” Christopher Miller, author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, was quoted as saying by CNN.

This manufacturing-focused approach, paired with Taiwan’s ecosystem of skilled engineers, has made it the world’s leading supplier of advanced chips, producing over 90% of global output, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Attempts by Intel and Samsung to replicate TSMC’s foundry model underscore how Taiwan’s semiconductor rise was organic, not opportunistic.

Why US companies depend on TSMC

Despite Trump’s criticism, US technology giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google deeply rely on TSMC’s advanced manufacturing.

The threat of a potential conflict between China and Taiwan has heightened US interest in reducing this dependency, leading to initiatives like the CHIPS Act, signed by President Joe Biden in 2022, aimed at boosting US chip production.

However, building a domestic semiconductor manufacturing base is no simple task; Intel and other companies face high costs, labor shortages, and regulatory challenges in the US, highlighting the complexities of Trump’s push to bring chip manufacturing home.

For TSMC, expanding into the US also presents challenges.

The company is constructing three Arizona facilities but has encountered delays tied to differences in work culture and labor regulations.

“TSMC must adapt its operations to fit the local culture and labor systems if it truly wants to become a global company,” said former TSMC R&D director Konrad Young, per CNN.

US-Taiwan chip dilemma

If Trump were to impose tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors, it could complicate supply chains and raise costs across the tech sector.

Citi analysts noted that tariffs would involve extensive audits, given the complex composition of chips in electronic devices.

History suggests that a trade dispute could prompt retaliation from China, as seen when Beijing restricted American chipmaker Micron’s access to the Chinese market during earlier tensions.

On the other hand, a Trump presidency could favor American chip manufacturers like Intel and Texas Instruments, potentially reshaping the industry’s competitive landscape.

As the US grapples with securing its chip supply, Taiwan’s role remains indispensable.

Trump’s comments underscore the challenges of reducing dependence on foreign chipmakers while balancing geopolitical considerations.

Meanwhile, TSMC’s influence in the global tech landscape continues to grow.

However, as Konrad Young suggests, the key to any successful expansion will lie in cooperation rather than competition, fostering an environment where both US and Taiwanese firms can thrive for a sustainable semiconductor future.

In the broader debate, Taiwan’s path to semiconductor dominance illustrates a strategic model that rivals seek to emulate rather than replace.

While Trump’s claims make headlines, industry experts agree: Taiwan didn’t steal America’s chip industry—it built one that has become the envy of the world.

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With the US presidential election mere days away, manufacturers brace for potential policy shifts that could reshape the industry’s trajectory for years.

While they’re on track for one of their best years, many firms remain cautious about the unknowns, particularly around trade policies under potential Trump tariffs.

A Democratic win, on the other hand, might maintain the status quo.

For now, industrial stocks in the Russell 1000, excluding Boeing, are up by about 22% in 2024, closely mirroring the S&P 500’s rise.

They trade for about 25 times estimated 2025 earnings, a premium to the market’s 21 times multiple. 

“Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy…and election uncertainty,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) PMI survey in their October report, as reported by Barron’s.

AI and aerospace demand expected to hold steady

Manufacturers this year have benefitted from substantial spending on electrification and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

As major tech companies pour billions into AI data centers, demand for equipment has surged, and so needs airplane parts and new jets, propelling growth for aerospace suppliers.

Despite broader industrial sluggishness, the AI and aerospace demand are expected to hold steady into 2025.

However, Boeing has had a rocky year. Its stock has dropped by around 41% year-to-date, in contrast with broader industry gains, as production and quality issues persist, coupled with a strike by its machinist union.

While demand remains high, the company faces its own set of hurdles, including added regulatory scrutiny and production constraints.

Potential tariff changes could spark trade war

Should Donald Trump win the election, his plans for tariff increases could present new challenges.

His strategy to bring more manufacturing back to the US through tariffs may seem beneficial on the surface.

However, increased tariffs often spark retaliation, and a new trade war could impact some of America’s biggest manufacturers, particularly in the aerospace industry.

China, for instance, is a major customer of Boeing, with around 200 Boeing 737 jets operated by China Southern Airlines.

But Beijing might halt future Boeing orders if fresh tariffs hit US-China relations.

Tariffs levied against European manufacturers too could impact Boeing which does not make planes in Europe.

Airbus, which manufactures jets in Mobile, Alabama, could benefit due to its US-based operations, giving it a potential edge in such a scenario.

Suppliers like GE Aerospace, who serve both Airbus and Boeing, may be less affected directly by the tariffs, though they too wish to avoid disruptions tied to Boeing’s production and geopolitical uncertainties.

Reshoring brings jobs, but industrial momentum remains weak

Efforts to boost US manufacturing through tariffs and government policies have delivered results over the past few years.

Since Trump’s first term, employment in the sector has risen as companies ramped up domestic production of semiconductors, batteries, and automobiles.

US manufacturing employment grew from 12.4 million workers at the end of 2016 to 12.9 million by September 2024, marking consistent growth through both the Trump and Biden administrations.

But reshoring alone hasn’t solved the sector’s bigger challenges.

This limitation is reflected in the performance of major players like Rockwell Automation and Honeywell which have trailed the S&P 500 in performance over the past two years, with average returns of only 8%.

Additionally, the ISM’s monthly PMI index, which indicates manufacturing growth, has been above 50 only once in the past two years, highlighting a deep industrial weakness.

Lower interest rates to be a short-term tailwind

The election may resolve some uncertainties, but manufacturers remain cautious.

However, one tailwind could come in the form of lower interest rates expected in 2025, which are likely to help boost capital expenditure and order momentum across the industry.

“Order momentum is expected to accelerate in late 2024 and into 2025 following the US election and interest rate cuts given historically elevated capacity utilization rates across durable goods manufacturing,” wrote Jefferies analyst Saree Boroditsky in a recent report.

As manufacturers prepare for a new year, they’re hopeful for policy stability and continued support from interest rate cuts.

But all eyes are on the election results, knowing they could either propel or hinder growth depending on the outcome.

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Gold prices rose on Tuesday ahead of the US Presidential election on November 5 and a string of key economic data releases later this week.

Prices have come close to their record high earlier in the session as the traders shrug off easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

At the time of writing, the most active gold contract on COMEX was at $2,766.50 per ounce, up 0.4% from the previous close. Earlier in October, gold prices had touched a record high of $2,772.60 per ounce.  

Gold prices had come under pressure on Monday as Israel’s attack on Iran over the weekend had limited impact as it did not target any oil and nuclear sites. 

However, safe-haven demand for the yellow metal remains intact ahead of the US elections next week. The uncertainty over the outcome, which will determine US politics over the next four years, kept traders on their toes. 

Election jitters

The uncertainty surrounding the elections next week could determine the movement in gold prices. 

Most polls have been showing that former US President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris. However, analysts believe that the contest would be closely fought. 

Fxstreet.com said in a report:

Persistent safe-haven demand stemming from Middle East tensions and US election jitters continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. 

In case of a Trump win, concerns about a trade war with China would increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, Trump could also ease sanctions on Russia, while doubling them on Iran. 

Economic data in focus

Traders are also focusing on the release of the third quarter GDP data from the US on Thursday.

Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, will be released on Friday, along with the non-farm payroll data. 

All these data are scheduled to be released before next week’s Fed policy meeting. If the data showed further cooling of the economy, it would bode well for more interest rate cuts in the US. 

Lower interest rates increase demand for non-yielding metals such as gold and silver. 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect 95% probability of the US Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. 

Source: CME Group

At its September meeting, the Fed had cut rates by 50 bps, surprising the market. 

The technical outlook for gold

Gold prices have resistance around $2,770-$2,775 per ounce level, according to experts. 

If prices breach the $2,775 per ounce level, the yellow metal could move up to $2,800 per ounce next. Gold prices on COMEX have risen more than 30% since the start of this year. 

“That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into the overbought territory and warrants some caution for bulls,” Haresh Menghani, editor at Fxstreet, said in a report. 

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.

Copper prices fall

Among industrial metals, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange fell on Tuesday as traders await more cues from top consumer, China. 

The recent stimulus packages announced in China were not enough to generate demand for the red metal. Traders have been expecting the Chinese government to announce economic stimulus to prop up the property sector. 

Traders will now focus on the purchasing managers index from China due on Thursday for more cues. 

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on LME was at $9,522 per ton, down 0.2% from the previous close. 

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