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Global brokerage CLSA has made a significant pivot in its investment strategy, moving back to Indian equities while reducing exposure to China. .

The reversal marks a significant move for CLSA, which initially increased its allocation to Chinese equities in October 2024 while trimming its overweight position in India from 20% to 10%.

This tactical adjustment aimed to capture perceived signs of recovery in the Chinese market.

However, after reassessing conditions and noting persistent challenges, CLSA has chosen to revert to a heavier India allocation.

It has adjusted its strategy to increase its investment in India by 20%, driven by the growing uncertainty surrounding China’s economic prospects.

China faces ‘misfortune in threes’

CLSA’s report, titled Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon, highlights three key setbacks that have pressured Chinese equities.

The re-election of Donald Trump and the reappointment of Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative signal a return to protectionist policies, including potential tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese goods.

This development comes as exports play an increasingly pivotal role in China’s economic recovery.

China’s economic difficulties are compounded by sluggish real estate investment, high youth unemployment, and continued deflationary pressures.

Despite the stimulus measures introduced by China’s National People’s Congress, CLSA believes these efforts lack the strength needed for substantial economic recovery.

“The NPC stimulus amounts to de-risking with little reflationary benefit,” the brokerage commented.

Adding to China’s woes are rising US yields and heightened inflation expectations, which restrict the ability of both the US Federal Reserve and China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), to enact accommodating monetary policies.

CLSA expressed concerns that these dynamics could trigger a pullback by offshore investors who previously invested after the PBOC’s initial stimulus in September.

India: a relative haven amid global uncertainties

In contrast to China’s vulnerabilities, India’s economic landscape presents fewer exposures to international trade tensions and protectionist US policies.

CLSA emphasized India’s relative insulation: “India appears as among the least exposed of regional markets to Trump’s adverse trade policy.”

Despite recent net outflows of ₹1.2 lakh crore from foreign institutional investors (FII) since October, driven by rising inflation and weaker second-quarter earnings, domestic investment appetite in India has remained resilient.

This robust local demand helps counterbalance external pressures and positions India as an attractive option for global investors seeking stability.

China’s valuations are not so attractive now

CLSA said China is now trading on a cyclically adjusted earnings multiple of 12.0x, versus 9.2x in early September or 8.2x at the start of the year.

While this is still a discount to the rest of emerging markets—EM excluding China trades on a CAPE of 14.0x—but not as extreme as the 36% discount on offer in early September.

Besides, it acknowledged that while India’s equity market remains expensive, current valuations have moderated, making them slightly more attractive for investment.

The cyclically adjusted PE ratio has decreased from 37.9x to 33.5x, while the price-to-book ratio has fallen from 4.5x to 4.0x.

This warranted book multiple, estimated at 3.5x, now reflects a smaller premium.

The brokerage also pointed out that India’s earnings momentum, though softened, remains strong.

Projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025/26 is anticipated to reach 18% and 14%, respectively, backed by stable GDP forecasts and a solid rupee.

Additionally, the stability of the rupee and local currency earnings has driven dollarized EPS back in line with its 30-year trend.

Risks on the horizon for India

Despite its optimism, CLSA also highlighted potential risks to Indian equities, particularly a surge in market issuance.

The firm noted that the cumulative 12-month issuance level is nearing 1.5% of the market cap, a historical threshold that could weigh on market performance if demand doesn’t keep pace.

The brokerage also maintains caution, pointing out that India’s heavy reliance on energy imports, especially oil, makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations.

“We remain concerned about the potential for risk premium in the oil price or at worst, a substantive supply interruption from Iran-Israel tensions,” it stated.

However, as long as energy prices remain manageable, India is seen as an oasis of relative stability amid global market turbulence.

Trump’s tariffs could spark a pivot away from China

The brokerage expressed apprehensions over Trump’s second term, which could spark fresh trade disruptions.

Lighthizer’s commitment to high tariffs could result in early economic turmoil, potentially affecting global growth.

While China’s direct exposure to US trade is limited to 2.9% of GDP, CLSA pointed out the country’s vulnerability through indirect trade routes and its rising export dependency.

In light of growing tensions, US investments may further pivot away from China as corporations continue implementing “China plus one” strategies to mitigate supply chain risks.

CLSA noted that India stands to benefit from this shift, given its scalable growth potential, manageable leverage, and low foreign equity ownership compared to other emerging markets.

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General Motors (GM) laid off approximately 1,000 employees on Friday as part of a broader effort to reduce costs and realign its priorities in response to shifting market conditions, according to a CNBC report.

The layoffs, communicated to affected employees Friday morning, were spread across various departments.

Some were tied to underperformance, while others were part of a restructuring initiative to streamline operations, the source said, speaking anonymously.

Most of the impacted employees were based at GM’s Global Technical Center in Warren, Michigan, located in the Detroit suburbs. A small number of hourly workers were also included in the layoffs.

The company is aiming to cut $2 billion in fixed costs this year as it faces slowing sales in the US, declining business in China, and a reassessment of its electric vehicle strategy, which has been impacted by slower-than-expected consumer adoption.

A GM spokesperson confirmed the layoffs but did not disclose the exact number of employees affected.

“In order to remain competitive, we must optimize for speed and excellence,” said GM spokesperson Kevin Kelly in a statement.

“This requires operating efficiently, ensuring the right team structure, and focusing on our top business priorities. As part of this ongoing effort, we’ve made a small reduction in our team. We’re thankful for the contributions of those who helped build a strong foundation, positioning GM for leadership in the industry going forward.”

The layoffs follow a similar reduction in August, when over 1,000 salaried employees in GM’s software and services division were let go.

At the end of 2023, GM employed 76,000 salaried workers globally, including 53,000 in the US.

The United Auto Workers union, which represents GM’s hourly workers, did not immediately comment on the layoffs.

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“Big Short” investor Michael Burry raised his stake in Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd (NYSE: BABA) by 30% in the third quarter.

He expects the tech stock to rally on the back of China’s stimulus blitz in the months ahead.

Burry’s Scion Asset Management now owns a total of about 200,000 shares of Alibaba.

The investment firm has been an aggressive buyer of BABA stock since the start of 2024.

Alibaba shares are down over 20% versus their high in early October.

Are Alibaba shares worth buying?

Alibaba stock looks attractive at current levels as its new chief executive Eddie Wu is committed to reviving the company’s core e-commerce business and winning back the share it has lost to smaller rivals like Pinduoduo in recent years.

And the latest results suggest his efforts are already bearing fruits.

BABA saw double-digit growth in orders that helped drive a robust year-on-year increase in gross merchandise value (GMV) in its third financial quarter.

On Friday, the multinational also confirmed that its international e-commerce segment remains strong despite ongoing challenges in China. Revenue from that business was up 29% in Q3.

Alibaba stock pays a dividend yield of 2.21% at writing which makes up for another great reason to own it.

BABA is an AI stock

Alibaba shares may be worth owning also because they offer significant exposure to the artificial intelligence market that Statista forecasts will grow at a compound annualized rate of 28.46% through the end of 2030.

BABA reported double-digit growth in its public cloud products while AI-related product revenue delivered triple-digit growth in its fiscal Q3.

“We’re more confident in our core businesses than ever and will continue to invest in supporting long-term growth,” chief executive Eddie Wu told investors in a statement on Friday.

Earlier this week, Alibaba unveiled an AI-enabled search tool for small businesses. It is also reportedly considering raising about $5 billion through a bond offering.

Alibaba stock could climb to $137

Mizuho analyst James Lee seems to share Burry’s optimism on Alibaba shares.

He reiterated his “outperform” rating on the tech and e-commerce stock this week and raised his price target to $113 which translates to a more than 20% upside from here.

Lee also cited stimulus plans for his constructive view on BABA stock and said its significant shareholder returns will continue to serve as a tailwind moving forward.

Barclays is even more bullish on Alibaba stock and expects it to hit $137 over the next twelve months – and our market expert Crispus Nyaga even sees a possibility for an up to 90% surge in BABA shares.

Nonetheless, investors should note that Alibaba Group Holdings Inc. improved its revenue by 5.0% to RMB 236.5 billion ($32.71 billion) in its fiscal third quarter. Analysts, in comparison, had called for a higher RMB 238.9 billion instead.  

The post Michael Burry loads up on Alibaba stock: should you buy it too? appeared first on Invezz

Bloom Energy Corp (NYSE: BE) announced a supply agreement with American Electric Power Company Inc (NASDAQ: AEP) for up to 1 gigawatt of its solid oxide fuel cells on Friday.

Shares of the renewable energy company opened about 50% up today.

AEP has ordered 100 MW of its fuel cells for now and is expected to place orders for more in 2025. Bloom Energy stock is now going for about $20 versus $9.0 only in late October.

Bloom Energy looks fairly positioned for revenue growth

Bloom Energy is a California-based maker of solid oxide fuel cells capable of running on 100% hydrogen or “any blend thereof with natural gas”.

A lower carbon footprint makes its solution “ideal for powering AI data centres”. Bloom already has power-capacity agreements in place with the likes of Intel and CoreWeave as well.

Last week, the New York-listed firm also partnered with SK Eternix on a project that it said would be the world’s largest fuel cell installation in history. KR Sridhar – the chief executive of Bloom Energy said in a press release today:

With our proven track record of more than 1.3 GW deployed, and a fully functional factory that can deliver GWs of products per year, we’re ready and able to meet the rapid electricity demand growth.

These recent developments may help improve its revenue that tanked more than 17% to $330 million in the third financial quarter – and an uptick in financials could translate to a higher stock price in 2025.

Bloom stock does not, however, pay a dividend at writing.

Piper Sandler upgrades Bloom stock

Also on Friday, Piper Sandler analyst Kashy Harrison upgraded Bloom Energy to “overweight” as the AEP agreement positions it for massive gains in the coming months.

Harrison expects this transaction to mean significant growth opportunities for BE even though the renewable energy names are broadly expected to struggle under the Trump administration.

That’s because Donald Trump has already vowed to repeal Joe Biden’s climate policies.

And while the 100 MW order from American Electric Power Company is in line with prior commentary, the Piper Sandler analyst recommends loading up on Bloom stock as “upside potential to 1-GW is literally 10x what we were expecting.”

He also expects Bloom Energy to win similar deals from other utility giants moving forward now that one of them has endorsed its technology.

Such agreements will likely push BE’s revenue up to $1.8 billion in 2025, according to Kashy Harrison.

Note that Piper Sandler is not the only investment firm that’s bullish on Bloom stock at writing.

The consensus rating on BE shares is “overweight” with the average price target of analysts currently set at $17. Bloom stock has already surpassed that level following the AEP news on Friday.

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China is set to strengthen its position in Latin America with the official opening of the first phase of the Chancay port project, located 70 kilometers north of Lima.

This $3.4 billion venture, spearheaded by China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Company, is poised to become a vital logistics hub in the region and could reshape trade routes between South America and Asia.

The Chancay port, designed to house 15 docks, administrative offices, logistics services, and a two-kilometer tunnel to expedite freight movement, represents a strategic investment aligned with China’s global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The port’s opening coincides with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Lima, signaling strong ties between the two nations and China’s expanding foothold in Latin American markets.

Chancay port project

The Chancay port project, which took eight years to complete, faced numerous challenges, including environmental concerns, local opposition, and debates over its socioeconomic impact.

While job creation promises were initially attractive, critics have noted that past Chinese investments in the region sometimes favored importing labor over employing locals.

Peru’s Minister of Communications and Transport, Raúl Pérez Reyes, emphasized the port’s strategic importance, stating, “With this port, we will not only increase our cargo capacity but also enhance our competitiveness on a global scale.”

The government estimates that the port will generate approximately 7,500 direct and indirect jobs, although concerns about fair employment practices remain.

This project will facilitate the import of critical resources like copper and lithium from South America and enhance exports of agricultural products to China.

The port’s impact extends beyond Peru, potentially shifting regional trade dynamics and prompting neighboring countries to seek similar investments.

The growing demand for commodities in China and Asia has raised expectations for Chancay’s economic contributions.

With global supply chains adapting post-pandemic, efficient transportation networks are essential, and the Chancay port is expected to cut transit times and costs for shipping between South America and Asia.

However, the Peruvian government must address local employment concerns and ensure transparency in operations to gain public trust. Equitable job distribution and oversight will be critical to maximizing the port’s benefits for Peruvians.

As China strengthens ties with mineral-rich nations like Chile, Brazil, and Peru, and maintains trade relationships with countries such as Argentina and Venezuela, its strategic foothold in the region grows.

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Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway revealed intriguing shifts in its investment strategy during the third quarter, adding new positions in Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp. while trimming holdings in long-time favorites like Apple and Bank of America.

The latest SEC filing offers a glimpse into the evolving appetite of the Oracle of Omaha.

A slice of the pie: Berkshire’s new Domino’s investment

Berkshire’s newfound craving for Domino’s translated into a 1.28 million share stake worth approximately $549 million as of September 30th.

This investment suggests confidence in the pizza chain’s ability to navigate the current economic landscape, where value-oriented dining options are gaining traction.

Like other fast-food giants such as McDonald’s, Domino’s has been actively promoting deals to attract budget-conscious consumers, many of whom are foregoing pricier sit-down restaurants in favor of fast casual or delivery options.

Berkshire takes a dip with Pool Corp.

Beyond pizza, Berkshire also dipped its toes into the pool supply market, acquiring 404,000 shares of Pool Corp., a leading distributor of swimming pool supplies, valued at around $152 million as of September 30th.

While Pool Corp. noted “soft” demand for new pool construction last month, the company highlighted the resilience of non-discretionary repair and maintenance services for existing pools, a factor that may have attracted Berkshire’s interest.

Market reaction: Domino’s and Pool Corp. shares rise

News of Berkshire’s investments sent ripples through the after-hours market, with Domino’s shares rising 6.9% and Pool Corp. shares climbing 5.7%.

This positive response is a common phenomenon following Berkshire’s investment disclosures, often interpreted by investors as a “seal of approval” from the renowned value investor.

While embracing pizza and pool supplies, Berkshire continued its trend of accumulating cash.

The Omaha-based conglomerate’s cash and cash equivalents nearly doubled to a staggering $325.2 billion as of September 30th.

This cash accumulation coincides with a significant reduction in stock purchases and a halt in share buybacks for the first time since 2018.

In the third quarter alone, Berkshire sold $36.1 billion of stocks while purchasing only $1.5 billion.

For the year, stock sales totaled $133.2 billion—primarily Apple, followed by Bank of America—compared to just $5.8 billion in purchases.

While Buffett remains tight-lipped about the precise reasons behind these strategic shifts, several factors may be at play.

Market observers speculate that tax considerations and potentially inflated valuations are influencing his decisions.

The substantial cash reserves provide Berkshire, with its $1.01 trillion market capitalization, the flexibility to make significant acquisitions under Buffett’s continued leadership at the age of 94.

Portfolio adjustments: a glimpse into Berkshire’s Holdings

Beyond the headline-grabbing Domino’s and Pool Corp. investments, Berkshire’s latest filing reveals other notable portfolio adjustments.

The conglomerate increased its stake in aircraft parts maker Heico while completely divesting its holdings in flooring retailer Floor & Decor.

Berkshire also trimmed positions in Capital One, Charter Communications, Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings, and cosmetics chain Ulta Beauty.

The near-complete sale of Ulta Beauty shares, just a short time after disclosing an initial investment in August, represents a particularly rapid turnaround.

Ulta shares fell 3.8% after hours.

Berkshire’s vast portfolio continues to encompass a diverse range of businesses, including Geico car insurance, BNSF railroad, and various consumer, energy, industrial, and retail companies.

Thursday’s filing does not say whether Buffett or his portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler are responsible for individual investments.

Neither Domino’s nor Pool have issued a statement or released any comments on the matter.

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China’s economy displayed promising signs of recovery in October, supported by an uptick in retail sales and industrial output.

These improvements reflect the impact of recent government stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing growth in key sectors.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, retail sales grew by 4.8% from the previous year, marking the fastest pace since February and surpassing analysts’ expectations.

This is a critical indication of recovery in consumer spending, which had lagged behind production growth amid economic uncertainties.

Industrial output rose 5.3%, lower than forecast. However, Chinese steel production saw a notable recovery in October, ending four months of consecutive declines.

Retail sales growth attributed to stimulus measures

The increase in retail sales can be attributed to Beijing’s comprehensive stimulus strategies, which have included subsidizing the purchase of equipment, appliances, and vehicles.

This push to stimulate consumption helped home appliance sales skyrocket by 39% compared to the same period last year—the most significant growth seen since 2010.

The improved sales figures signal a resurgence in domestic consumer activity, an area that has been a weak link in China’s post-pandemic economic recovery.

Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a Bloomberg report, “The policymakers will be pleased to see the rally in retail sales. They’d rather sacrifice a bit of factory activity for consumption, although it is still early to tell whether the two-speed economy has ended.”

Industrial sector shows improvement

In addition to retail, industrial output rose by 5.3% in October, though it came in slightly below forecasts.

The growth signals stabilization in the manufacturing sector, buoyed by healthy margins that encouraged increased steel production.

Steel output, which had been declining for four consecutive months, rebounded by 6.2% compared to September, reaching 81.88 million tons.

This marked a 2.9% year-over-year increase, underscoring a positive shift in sentiment following state-led efforts to stimulate economic momentum.

The rebound has allowed the cumulative decline in steel production for the first ten months of the year to narrow to 3%, maintaining the industry’s trajectory toward surpassing 1 billion tons of output for the fifth year running.

However, analysts remain cautious about long-term prospects as some mills continue to face financial difficulties, and demand from the property sector—a traditional driver of steel consumption—remains subdued.

Recovery encouraging, but don’t celebrate yet

Despite these signs of recovery, Beijing faces challenges in sustaining growth, especially with weak domestic demand and an uncertain global landscape.

The National Bureau of Statistics noted, “We should be aware that the external environment is increasingly complicated and severe, effective demands are still weak at home and the foundation for continuous economic recovery needs to be strengthened.”

Further compounding concerns is the recent re-election of Donald Trump as US president, which could usher in more aggressive trade policies.

Trump has already threatened to impose a 60% tariff on most Chinese imports, posing a potential risk to China’s export-driven industries.

This could put added pressure on Beijing to enhance domestic consumption as a counterbalance to potential export setbacks.

Steel’s long-term outlook remains grim

Although October’s industrial recovery points to short-term gains, the steel industry’s long-term outlook remains precarious.

The China Iron and Steel Association has urged steelmakers to maintain production discipline despite rising prices, cautioning that structural market issues persist.

While government officials have indicated there is room for additional stimulus measures in the coming year, analysts believe these efforts might not be enough to revive demand from sectors like property development and large-scale infrastructure—key pillars that have historically fueled steel production.

Beijing’s ongoing commitment to policies that stimulate growth, such as consumer subsidies and targeted fiscal measures, will be critical to ensuring that the economic recovery is robust and sustainable.

The current signs of improvement are encouraging, but the path forward will likely require continued vigilance and strategic policy adjustments.

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Ford Motor Co. has been hit with a substantial $165 million penalty by the US government for its handling of a rearview camera recall.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) levied the fine, the second-largest in its history, citing Ford’s delayed recall and failure to provide accurate information.

The NHTSA criticized Ford for its sluggish response to the faulty rearview camera issue, affecting over 620,000 vehicles in the US and more than 700,000 in North America.

The agency also faulted the automaker for providing incomplete information, a violation of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Act.

“Timely and accurate recalls are critical to keeping everyone safe on our roads,” emphasized NHTSA Deputy Administrator Sophie Shulman.

“When manufacturers fail to prioritize the safety of the American public and meet their obligations under federal law, NHTSA will hold them accountable.”

The terms of the consent order: oversight and improvements

Under the consent order, Ford will pay $65 million directly and invest $45 million in enhancing its recall compliance processes.

An additional $55 million is deferred.

The agreement also mandates independent oversight of Ford’s recall performance for at least three years, requiring the automaker’s full cooperation with the appointed monitor.

Ford is obligated to review all recalls from the past three years to ensure adequacy and issue new recalls if necessary.

The company must also revamp its recall decision-making process, including data analysis methods for identifying safety defects, and invest in technology to track parts by vehicle identification number.

Ford has committed to investing the $45 million in advanced data analytics, a new document management system, and a new testing laboratory.

Ford’s response: a commitment to continuous improvement

“We appreciate the opportunity to resolve this matter with NHTSA and remain committed to continuously improving safety,” Ford said in a statement.

The automaker acknowledged the need for improvements and expressed a willingness to work with the NHTSA and the independent monitor to implement enhancements.

The company says it has learned from the camera recall.

“We look forward to working with NHTSA and the independent third party to implement further enhancements,” Ford said.

A history of camera troubles

The initial recall for the faulty rearview cameras occurred in September 2020, covering several 2020 models, including the popular F-Series pickup truck.

NHTSA documents reveal that Ford had identified warranty claims related to the cameras between February and April 2020, with the issue brought before a Ford committee in May.

The NHTSA contacted Ford about camera complaints in July 2020.

During an August 2020 meeting, Ford presented data showing high camera failure rates across several 2020 models.

Subsequently, Ford issued two additional recalls in 2022 and 2024 for the same camera problem, adding approximately 24,000 vehicles to the initial recall.

Ongoing scrutiny of Ford’s recall practices

The $165 million penalty doesn’t mark the end of Ford’s challenges with the NHTSA.

Earlier this year, the agency launched an investigation into a recall repair for Ford SUVs related to gasoline leaks and potential engine fires.

In an April 25th letter to Ford, investigators expressed “significant safety concerns” about the March 8th recall of nearly 43,000 Bronco Sport and Escape SUVs.

Ford’s proposed fix involved adding a drain tube to divert leaking gasoline and implementing software to cut off fuel supply upon leak detection.

However, the NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation believes this remedy fails to address the root cause and doesn’t proactively replace defective fuel injectors.

While Ford maintains it has a strong recall process and is committed to legal compliance, the company acknowledges the need for continuous improvement.

Ford said that it has a strong recall process and is committed to complying with the law, but it can always improve.

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India’s economic growth remains resilient despite concerns over Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

In an interview with CNBC, global strategist Chris Wood of Jefferies highlights that India’s fundamentals are robust enough to withstand the ripple effects of a stronger US dollar and tighter global financial conditions.

India is projected to achieve a real GDP growth of 6-8% and nominal growth of 10-12% over the next five years.

As other emerging markets grapple with the US election outcome, India’s domestic equity market continues to attract inflows, bolstering its resilience and long-term growth prospects.

Emerging markets face challenges, but India stays the course

Trump’s return to the presidency has triggered volatility across emerging markets due to the strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields.

This development has made it challenging for Asian central banks to pursue rate cuts, complicating monetary policy adjustments in emerging economies.

India’s economic and equity story diverges from this broader trend.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policies are not overly reliant on aggressive rate cuts, providing stability in the face of global monetary tightening.

Indian equities see robust domestic inflows amid foreign sell-offs

The Indian equity market has demonstrated resilience against foreign investor sell-offs.

Domestic inflows have stabilised and supported the market, with significant participation from retail and institutional investors.

This dynamic has helped cushion the impact of foreign capital outflows, which are often influenced by global risk sentiment.

Rising equity supply, driven by companies capitalising on high valuations to raise capital, has led to a market correction.

According to Wood, this is a “natural and healthy” process, allowing markets to digest the increased supply without compromising their long-term potential.

The rupee’s depreciation is slowing, boosting investor confidence

India’s currency, the rupee, has historically faced annual depreciation of around 6% against the dollar.

Wood suggests that this trend is easing, with the rupee likely to stabilise in the coming years.

A slower pace of depreciation makes Indian assets more attractive to global investors and signals improving macroeconomic fundamentals.

India’s vulnerability to external shocks, such as fluctuations in oil prices, is also reducing.

As the country diversifies its energy sources and strengthens its current account position, its economic story gains further credibility on the global stage.

Trump’s policies support US equities, but risks remain

In the US, Trump’s pro-business policies, including corporate tax cuts and deregulation, are expected to boost equity markets in the short term.

However, these measures have also contributed to a stronger dollar, creating headwinds for emerging markets dependent on foreign capital.

While India benefits from strong domestic market dynamics, the global financial environment remains challenging.

For Indian policymakers and investors, balancing domestic growth with external uncertainties will be critical.

Long-term growth drivers strengthen India’s position

India’s economic fundamentals are improving, with structural reforms and rising domestic investments underpinning long-term growth.

The country is on track to reduce its dependence on imported oil, contributing to better trade balances.

Moreover, India’s ability to run current account surpluses in the near future could further enhance its resilience against external shocks.

These developments position India as a standout performer among emerging markets, even in a volatile global economic environment.

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Brazil’s economic activity showed momentum in September, with the IBC-Br Index rising by 0.8%, according to data from the Banco Central do Brasil.

This marks an acceleration from the 0.2% growth in August and surpasses forecasts of a 0.5% increase, signaling resilience in Brazil’s economy amid global challenges.

Service sector drives recovery

Accounting for around 70% of Brazil’s economic output, the service sector led this growth with a robust 1% rise in September, recovering from a 0.3% decline in August.

This resurgence was fueled in part by the Rock in Rio festival, which attracted both local and international visitors, benefiting the hospitality and entertainment industries.

The industrial sector also demonstrated notable improvement, posting a 1.1% increase compared to August’s modest 0.2% growth.

This uptick reflects enhanced manufacturing activities supported by strong domestic demand, export growth, and more stable supply chain conditions.

Retail sales, another key indicator of economic health, edged up by 0.5%, indicating a cautious but improving consumer confidence.

The IBC-Br Index recorded a striking 5.1% year-over-year increase in September 2024, showcasing the country’s solid economic momentum.

Additionally, on a quarterly basis, economic activity surged by 4.7%, underscoring Brazil’s steady pace as it nears the end of 2024.

Inflation and fiscal concerns

Despite these positive developments, significant obstacles remain. The central bank has warned of a potentially prolonged cycle of interest rate hikes driven by rising inflation expectations and fiscal pressures.

Such rate increases could dampen consumer spending, slow investment, and constrain broader economic growth.

Policymakers face the dual challenge of balancing inflation control while fostering continued growth.

The government’s ability to implement strategic fiscal reforms will be crucial for sustaining economic resilience and maintaining stability.

With promising growth led by the service and industrial sectors and bolstered by consumer spending, Brazil’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Events like Rock in Rio illustrate the powerful economic impact of the cultural and entertainment sectors, highlighting potential growth avenues beyond traditional industries.

However, the path forward requires careful navigation. Addressing inflation, managing fiscal deficits, and ensuring political stability are essential to maintaining this momentum. As Brazil’s policymakers work to balance these factors, the nation’s prospects for long-term growth and economic stability will depend on strategic economic management and reforms.

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