The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% on Thursday, March 20, as policymakers weighed concerns over global trade tensions and signs of stagnation in the UK economy.

The decision, which was widely expected, saw the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote 8-1 in favour of keeping rates unchanged. One member of the committee supported a 25-basis-point cut.

Despite the stability in rates, financial markets are closely monitoring the MPC’s stance, with analysts predicting at least two further rate cuts before the year’s end.

The decision comes at a crucial time, with UK economic growth under pressure and inflation still above the Bank’s 2% target.

Borrowing costs and mortgage rates

The BoE’s interest rate decisions influence a wide range of financial sectors, including mortgage rates, business investments, and government borrowing costs.

The nine-member MPC, chaired by Governor Andrew Bailey, meets eight times a year to determine the most effective policy measures for managing inflation and economic growth.

January’s inflation data showed a rise to 3%, reinforcing expectations that the Bank will hold rates steady in the short term. The BoE had previously forecast a temporary rise to 3.7% in the third quarter of this year due to higher energy costs.

Cutting rates too soon could fuel consumer spending and drive inflation higher, a scenario that policymakers want to avoid.

Homeowners and businesses, however, are keenly awaiting future cuts. Lower rates could lead to reduced borrowing costs for mortgages, loans, and credit cards, while also diminishing returns on savings.

Mortgage trends and policy stance

While mortgage interest rates have been declining in recent months, reflecting market expectations of further reductions, the pace of change remains gradual.

The BoE has made three rate cuts since August 2024, bringing the Bank rate to its lowest level in 18 months. However, officials continue to emphasise a cautious approach to monetary easing.

For homeowners, this means uncertainty over the timing of future cuts. While lenders have adjusted rates based on expected declines, the MPC’s warning on inflation has dampened hopes of rapid relief.

Paul Heywood, chief data and analytics officer at Equifax UK, highlighted that inflation risks and economic instability could slow further rate reductions.

Businesses also remain affected by interest rate decisions, as higher borrowing costs limit expansion and investment. While lower rates could stimulate economic activity, policymakers must balance this against the risk of prolonged inflationary pressures.

Economic pressures and policy response

The UK economy has shown signs of weakness, contracting by 0.1% in January. The central bank had already downgraded its 2025 growth forecast in February, halving it to 0.75%.

The backdrop to the decision includes ongoing volatility in global trade, particularly due to shifting policies in the United States.

President Donald Trump’s tariff measures have contributed to market uncertainty, with potential implications for UK inflation and economic growth.

Economic uncertainty extends beyond domestic concerns, with global factors such as US trade policies and geopolitical tensions influencing market sentiment.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Spring Statement is also expected to provide updated economic projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility, shedding further light on the UK’s fiscal position.

The UK economy remains under pressure, with businesses and households facing cost-of-living challenges. The BoE’s rate decisions will continue to be a focal point for markets, shaping expectations for growth, inflation, and financial stability in the months ahead.

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The price of copper surged past the significant milestone of $10,000 per ton on Thursday. 

This price jump follows weeks of disruption in the global copper trade, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on this essential industrial metal. 

The tariffs have created uncertainty and instability in the copper market, leading to concerns about potential supply shortages and increased costs for manufacturers who rely on copper.

The rise in price is significant as copper is a key component in various industries, including construction, electronics, and transportation.

ING Group’s analysts said in a note:

Copper prices are up around 14% year-to-date with Donald Trump’s tariff threats triggering a rush of copper flows into the US and tightening supplies elsewhere.

In February 2025, Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to conduct an investigation into the potential implementation of import tariffs on copper. 

This move was driven by concerns over the impact of copper imports on the domestic copper industry and national security. 

The investigation aimed to determine if rising copper imports were causing harm to American copper producers and if such imports could be considered a threat to national security.

Price dislocation

Copper prices reached their highest point since October on Thursday, climbing 0.6% to $10,049.40 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, while prices on New York’s COMEX approached a record high.

The sharp rally in COMEX prices is due to the likelihood of US tariffs. 

This has caused COMEX futures to trade near a record premium to those in London, widening the gap with equivalent prices in London.

US prices have increased by over 25% this year, while the benchmark LME price has risen by about 13% year-to-date, according to ING. Copper continues to benefit from the front-running of tariffs.

“There is a further upside risk for copper prices in New York if tariffs are applied; however, the spread risks a pullback if any potential tariffs fall short of expectations,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategies at ING Group, said in a report.

Stocks rising

Traders have been moving metal from global LME warehouses to the US due to the threat of tariffs. 

This shift aims to capitalise on the arbitrage opportunity, leading to a steady increase in CME copper stocks since Trump’s presidential election victory. 

The majority of these shipments have originated from South America, with some also coming from Asia. Simultaneously, LME stockpiles have experienced slight decreases.

“The investigation may take months, allowing more metal to be shipped to the US before tariffs are imposed,” Manthey said. 

The US copper rush could leave the rest of the world tight on copper if demand picks up more quickly than expected.

LME copper warrant cancellations have increased sharply since late February, with Asian inventories experiencing the most significant reductions, followed by those in Europe, ING said. 

Orders to remove metal from LME warehouses in Asia have risen to their highest point since August 2017.

Import reliance

The United States depends on copper imports to meet its domestic consumption needs. 

In 2024, the US imported approximately 850,000 tonnes of copper (excluding scrap), which accounted for roughly 50% of its domestic consumption, ING said. 

Chile was the primary source of these imports, supplying 41% of the total, followed by Canada at 27%. 

Given the challenges associated with increasing domestic production, it is unlikely that the US will be able to reduce its reliance on imported copper in the near future, Manthey noted.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) reports that America holds approximately 5% of the global copper reserves and contributes around 5% to the worldwide copper mining output. 

However, US copper production has been decreasing over the past ten years, with a 20% overall drop, ING said. In the last year alone, production fell by 3%, following an 11% decrease in 2023.

Short-term support expected from tariff risks

“In the long term, tariffs could be bearish for copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing growth and keeping inflation higher for longer,” Manthey added. 

“If US inflation remains persistent or rebounds, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay or increase interest rate cuts.” 

Demand for copper and other industrial metals is likely to weaken due to the projected growth slowdown in the US and the existing struggles in China’s economy, she said. 

The US slowdown is anticipated to be a result of tariffs, while China is already grappling with reviving its economy.

Copper prices will likely stay supported in the near term due to the US investigation into copper imports, according to ING. 

This is because of the front-running of tariffs and tightening of the ex-US physical market as more metal is sent to the US before any potential levies.

“Until the result of the investigation becomes clear, US import demand triggered by potential tariffs will continue to offset headwinds from slowing global growth and higher inflation as the trade war ramps up,” Manthey said. 

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Brazil’s government is introducing a distinct approach to fiscal adjustment with a 2025 budget proposal that features a record-high primary surplus.

The proposal, presented by Senator Angelo Coronel, targets a 15 billion reais ($2.66 billion) primary surplus, which is significantly higher than the 3.7 billion reais draft sent to Congress by the administration previously.

According to Reuters, this revision seeks to align with more bullish revenue projections and represents a litmus test for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s government as economic malaise endures.

Brazil 2025 budget: increasing revenue projections

The budget’s upward adjustment is based on improved revenue estimates.

Senator Coronel’s suggestion points out that the administration anticipates a more stable economic environment, which has raised expectations for tax collection and other revenue streams.

By modifying these expectations, the administration aims to present a more robust fiscal framework that is consistent with President Lula’s long-term economic ambitions.

The plan is particularly noteworthy because it implies optimism about Brazil’s economic recovery trajectory.

As the government actively seeks to boost economic growth, higher income estimates are critical to attaining fiscal stability without relying too much on debt financing.

Brazil budget: fiscal prudence

Under the budgetary framework set out in 2023, President Lula set in motion a new fiscal spending policy with spending growth capped at 2.5% over inflation.

This year’s aim is a zero primary deficit with a margin of 0.25% of GDP, which means the government can run a deficit of 30.9 billion reais while still meeting the regulation.

It allows the government to make spending allocations that might otherwise infringe on its overall fiscal targets.

Senator Coronel’s budget changes included higher funding for social security benefits, in response to rising public demand for more social welfare help.

However, to offset these improvements, changes were made to the Bolsa Familia program, which provides cash support to low-income families.

This dual strategy seeks to preserve a balanced fiscal outlook while addressing pressing social concerns.

in line with these adjustments, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced earlier this week a landmark bill aimed at relieving the financial burden on Brazilian workers.

The new legislation aims to increase the income tax exemption threshold for employees earning up to R$5,000 per month.

This project is consistent with Lula’s campaign promises and represents a legislative attempt to benefit nearly 30 million Brazilians, according to the National Association of Federal Revenue Auditors (Unafisco).

Legislative approval challenges

Although the budget legislation has been significantly modified, the lengthy process highlights a larger issue with the Lula administration’s bargaining tactics in Congress.

In Brazil, year-end appropriation bills are often adopted by the end of the previous year. However, this year’s significant delay highlights the difficulty of negotiating in legislative debates.

Critics claim that this delay indicates the continuous conflict between Lula’s administration and a Congress that is sometimes combative and hostile to several of the government’s ideas.

As Brazil’s political environment remains divided, the budget bill’s approval will be primarily reliant on the government’s ability to negotiate and obtain support from diverse congressional factions.

The Brazilian government said on Wednesday it will keep its 2.3% economic growth forecast for the year.

Meanwhile, the inflationary projection has been raised marginally to 4.9% this year from 4.8% previously estimated in February.

The budget plan is moving through the joint budget committee and will be voted on by the full Congress on Thursday. This will be critical for the Lula administration’s long-term strategic success.

A significant surplus would boost fiscal confidence and enable the government to invest in social and infrastructure projects for the benefit of Brazilian citizens.

In addition, this renovated fiscal plan might actually benefit the confidence of investors in the Brazilian economy boosting investment in the country both externally and internals.

Overall, Brazil’s updated budget plan represents an important step in President Lula’s fiscal strategy, which aims to improve financial stability while addressing pressing social demands.

As debates in Congress continue, the ramifications of this budget will ripple across Brazil’s economy, defining the country’s trajectory in the next years.

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Tesla has been one of the most traded stocks so far this year, perhaps for all the wrong reasons. 

As of the time of writing this article, the company’s share price has dropped by 42% year-to-date.

Tesla’s shareholders have been loyal.

They have been through a lot of ups and downs.

But now, they are questioning whether Musk’s political involvement is hurting the company’s performance.

This story isn’t just about a bad quarter or a marketing misstep.

Something deeper is going on.

Something inside Tesla’s boardrooms, across its balance sheets, and, perhaps most importantly, within the mind of its distracted CEO.

Has Tesla lost its edge?

For years, Tesla led the electric vehicle race. Now, it’s lagging. 

Sales figures from early 2025 are painting an increasingly troubling picture.

In Germany, Tesla’s registrations plunged 76% in February compared to the previous year, even as overall EV sales surged.

The story is similar in France, Sweden, and Australia.

In California, which is Tesla’s largest US market, the company posted its fifth consecutive quarter of declining sales.

Tesla’s product line is part of the problem.

Its 2012 Model S and the 2017 Model 3 are aging, while competitors flood the market with fresh, compelling EV options. 

Only the Model Y retains real momentum, still holding the title of the world’s best-selling car in 2024.

The Cybertruck, despite the initial hype, remains polarizing and its sales impact is still unclear.

Beyond product cycles, the brand itself is under strain.

Tesla is no longer just selling cars, but also selling the public perception of Elon Musk. And lately, that’s become a much harder pitch.

Is Musk’s politics derailing Tesla’s brand?

Elon Musk’s shift from tech visionary to political insider is now a central concern for Tesla’s future. 

As head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in President Trump’s administration, Musk has become one of the most polarizing figures in American public life.

His alignment with Trump, as well as far-right parties in Europe, has ignited a backlash among Tesla’s once-loyal customer base.

Tesla was built on progressive ideals such as climate activism, clean energy, and innovation.

Now, Tesla owners prefer to distance themselves from the brand. 

Protest stickers saying “I bought this before Elon went crazy” have become a common sight on Teslas across Berlin and San Francisco.

Consumer boycotts, arson attacks on Cybertrucks, and vandalized charging stations show how politically charged the brand has become.

As a result, the company has seen its first annual sales decline in over a decade.

In 2024, Tesla’s global sales dropped 1.1%, and signs point to a sharper decline in 2025. 

Even Tesla’s resale market is feeling the pinch, with owners trying to offload their cars amidst falling used EV prices.

Nonetheless, Musk seems unphased. Some say he is betting to pivot Tesla’s appeal toward conservative buyers. 

But that strategy comes with a fundamental flaw.

Data shows that many Trump supporters remain skeptical of EVs altogether.

Musk may have alienated his traditional base without capturing a new one.

How fragile is investor confidence?

Tesla’s stock has been on a downward spiral. At one point during March, it had erased nearly $900 billion in market capitalization.

Elon Musk has seen his wealth shrink by $144 billion in three months, although he still remains as the world’s richest man.

But now, it’s not just retail investors feeling the pain. Key institutional investors are beginning to revolt. Ross Gerber, a long-time Tesla bull, publicly called for Musk to step down as CEO, saying:

He’s not running Tesla. […] That’s where I’m going to say it. I think Tesla needs a new CEO, and I decided today I was going to start saying that. Come back to Tesla and be the CEO of Tesla or focus on the government and keep doing what he’s doing, but find a suitable CEO for Tesla.

Another major investor, Christopher Tsai, echoed this view, urging Musk to end his political role and return focus to Tesla.

Behind the scenes, others are voting with their wallets.

SEC filings reveal over $100 million in stock sales by institutional investors, a quiet but telling signal of eroding confidence.

Even Tesla’s supporters on Wall Street are wavering.

A Morgan Stanley survey found that 85% of investors believe Musk’s political involvement has had a “negative or extremely negative” impact on Tesla’s business.

What’s going on with Tesla’s finances?

Beyond the headlines, the numbers are raising serious questions. 

A recent Financial Times investigation highlighted a $1.4 billion discrepancy in Tesla’s 2024 financials.

Specifically, Tesla reported $6.3 billion in capital expenditure in the second half of 2024, yet the value of its assets only increased by $4.9 billion.

That’s a big gap, and Tesla has yet to explain it. No significant asset sales or impairments were disclosed, and foreign exchange fluctuations are unlikely to account for it, especially given that 80% of Tesla’s assets are US-based.

Historically, Tesla’s reported asset growth has tracked closely with its capex spending.

This sudden divergence is unusual and may signal weak internal controls or aggressive accounting tactics, such as misclassifying expenses to inflate profits.

At the same time, Tesla raised $6 billion in new debt in 2024, despite sitting on $37 billion in cash and not paying dividends or buying back shares. 

This pattern of strong operating cash flow coupled with aggressive capital raising, is another red flag.

Forensic accounting experts note that such mismatches often preceded major corporate failures, including Wirecard and NMC Health.

Tesla insists it’s preparing for large investments in AI, robotics, and battery tech.

But with rising inventories and financial anomalies stacking up, questions about where the money is going are becoming harder to ignore.

Is Musk still in control?

Musk’s expanding empire is also feeling the heat. Throughout March, a SpaceX rocket exploded, and a cyberattack took down X, although service was quickly restored.

These are distractions Musk can’t afford as Tesla’s core business falters.

While Musk insists he’s managing his companies “with great difficulty,” investor patience is wearing thin.

There are growing fears that his interconnected business holdings, that is Tesla, SpaceX, X, xAI, are all at risk if Tesla’s stock continues to decline.

While Tesla stock is no longer direct collateral for Musk’s X acquisition, analysts warn that a prolonged drop could force asset sales or weaken his control over X due to liquidity pressures.

Meanwhile, Musk’s political ties complicate matters further.

Tesla holds up to $22 billion in US government contracts, and Musk’s dual role as a top advisor to Trump is raising conflict-of-interest concerns, especially as federal job cuts under DOGE spark lawsuits and public backlash.

Can Musk course-correct?

For the first time in years, Elon Musk seems cornered.

The vision that once made Tesla untouchable now faces its most serious test. It’s not just about sales.

Or stock price. It’s about trust. Trust among customers, investors, and even within Musk’s own boardroom.

Whether he steps back from politics or doubles down, the consequences will reverberate far beyond Tesla.

One thing is certain: the days of Musk being able to do it all, unchecked and unchallenged, may be coming to an end.

Tesla’s investors and customers want one thing. That is leadership.

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According to government data released on Friday, Japan’s core inflation rose 3% in February, exceeding economists’ expectations of 2.9%.

While the figure was lower than January’s 3.2%, it marked the 35th consecutive month that inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target.

Headline inflation climbed 3.7% year-on-year, easing from January’s two-year high of 4%.

Meanwhile, the “core-core” inflation measure—excluding fresh food and energy, which the BOJ closely tracks—ticked up to 2.6% from 2.5% in the previous month.

Japan’s consumer inflation came in slightly higher than expected, despite government energy subsidies tempering price increases.

This supports the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its gradual approach to rate hikes.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate again in June or July, with a projected pace of one hike approximately every six months until the tightening cycle reaches its peak.

BOJ’s policy outlook

The data follows the BOJ’s decision on Wednesday to keep interest rates steady at 0.5%, though policymakers signaled that inflationary pressures could persist.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that rising food costs and strong wage growth could continue to push up underlying inflation.

The central bank expects core inflation to rise through the 2025 fiscal year, citing higher rice prices and the expiration of government subsidies aimed at containing inflation.

In its latest economic outlook, the central bank forecasts the core inflation gauge to average 2.7% for the fiscal year ending this month and 2.4% for the next fiscal year.

The BOJ also emphasized that exchange rate movements could further impact prices, with uncertainty stemming from evolving trade and economic policies across major economies.

Following the inflation release, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.1% to trade at 148.61 per dollar, while the Nikkei 225 slipped slightly.

The Bank of Japan, which raised short-term rates to 0.5% from 0.25% in January after ending its long-running stimulus program, has indicated that further hikes remain on the table.

The central bank continues to emphasize its goal of fostering a “virtuous cycle” of rising wages and prices.

Wage growth strengthens case for policy normalization

The inflation data comes amid robust wage hikes secured through the annual shunto wage negotiations, further supporting expectations that the BOJ will continue adjusting its monetary policy.

Japan’s largest labor union, Rengo, announced on March 14 that it secured an average 5.46% wage increase from April—the biggest increase in over 30 years. This was 0.18 percentage points higher than last year’s 5.28% hike.

Notably, small and medium-sized businesses recorded an average wage increase of 5.09%, marking the first time since 1992 that raises for such firms exceeded 5%.

With inflation and wage growth both remaining elevated, analysts expect the BOJ to remain on course for further rate hikes, barring unexpected economic shocks.

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