Rivian stock price could be on the verge of a multi-year bull run ahead of the R2 launch later this year. RIVN shares surged by over 24% on Friday, moving to a high of $16.50, its highest swing since July 2024. It has soared by almost 100% from its lowest point in 2024.

Rivian R2 could be a game changer

Rivian share price has staged a strong bull run in the past few months, helped by the ongoing hype surrounding R2, the cheaper version of its popular R1 brand. 

R2 will be a smaller, but highly capable vehicle, costing about $45,000, much cheaper than R1, which starts at $69,000. It will have an estimated range of over 300 miles, slightly higher than the cheapest R1, which has 270 miles. 

Rivian’s R2 will be more highly successful because of R1s success in the United States, where it has become one of the most popular EVs. 

Results released last week showed that Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles in 2024 and delivered 51,579. These numbers were in line with the previous guidance, and is a sign that it is still seeing strong demand.

Rivian’s key challenge over time was that its vehicles were always too expensive for the average consumer. For example, with $65,000, one can opt to buy a Rivian R1 truck or a Ford F-150, which starts at $38,710. 

One can also buy the Ford Ranger, which starts at $32,820 or even the Maverick, which sells at $23,920. Given this choice, many people are opting to buy the Internal Combustion Engine vehicles that have a long track record. 

The Rivian R2 – sort of – changes the view by introducing a quality vehicle at a highly affordable price. It could do better as Tesla’s Model 3, which has become the company’s best-selling vehicle. 

RIVN Profitability in sight

The other main reason why the Rivian stock price may be on the cusp of a multi-year bull run is that the company has started to focus on profits.

For a long time, the Rivian stock price has struggled because of its huge losses. Its net loss in 2023 was over $5.4 billion, lower than the $6.7 billion it lost in the previous year. Its trailing twelve months (TTM) loss was over $5.52 billion. 

This loss-making will continue in the near term. However, the company has started to focus on slowing costs, which will help it deliver the first quarterly gross profit when it publishes its financial results. This is a good progress, and I expect the firm to turn a net profit in the next few years.

At the same time, Rivian has improved its balance sheet to offset its cash burn. It received a big $5 billion investment from Volkswagen, and most recently, the firm received a $6.6 billion loan from the Joe Biden administration. 

Therefore, a combination of modest sales growth, future profitability, and a stable balance sheet may help it continue to thrive. Also, the company may benefit from Elon Musk’s proximity to Donald Trump, the incoming president since he will not promote policies that may hurt Tesla.

Read more: Rivian (RIVN) stock rises almost 50% after hours off back of investor call

Rivian stock price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the RIVN share price has been in a tight range in the past few years amid concerns about its loss-making trajectory. There are signs that the stock has been going through the accumulation phase. 

Just recently, the accumulation and distribution indicator moved above the key resistance shown in red. This is a popular indicator that looks at the trends of investors in the market. The two lines of the Smart Money Index (SMI) have formed a bullish crossover. 

Rivian’s stock has also moved above the descending red trendline. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the RIVN stock will be bullish, with the next key level to watch being at $28.10, its highest swing in June 2023, which is about 70% above the current level.

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The Tilray Brands stock price has crawled back in the past few days, rising from the December low of $1.15 to $1.45. This mini-rebound will be put to test when the cannabis company publishes its financial results later this week. So, will the TLRY shares rise or fall after earnings?

Tilray Brands is changing

Tilray is a top Canadian company in the cannabis industry. Over the years, the company has worked to change amd diversify its business, mostly by investing heavily in the alcoholic beverage sector. 

Tilray has acquired several alcoholic brands in the past few years. It bought brands from AB InBev, the biggest alcohol manufacturer in the world in 2023. And last year, it acquired a few other brands from Molson Coors. 

It is clear why Tilray Brands is doing that as the cannabis industry has not lived to expectations, with other large players in the sector reporting weak numbers. The regulatory framework in the United States has also not moved as was initially expected. 

Hopes of more regulatory clarity were dashed recently when Donald Trump won the presidency and Republicans won the Senate and the House of Representatives. Historically, the Grand Old Party has opposed cannabis bills. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the cannabis banking bill that has been in consideration for years will not see the light at the end of the day, at least in the next four years. There is also a risk that the cannabis rescheduling into a less dangerous drug will not happen. 

Tilray Brands earnings ahead

The next important Tilray Brands stock catalyst will be its financial results, which are expected to happen on January 10. 

These results will provide more color about whether the company’s business was growing or not. Most importantly, they will give details about its loss-making trajectory and whether the management is making progress. 

Additionally, these numbers will give more color about whether its diversification efforts are working. 

The most recent financial data showed that its revenue rose by 13% in the last quarter to $200 million. Most of this growth was because of its alcoholic beverage acquisitions.

The beverage alcohol net revenue rose by 132% to $56 million during the quarter. This growth will likely continue as its results will include the brands it bought from Molson Coors. 

By investing in alcohol, the company also hopes that it will provide more profits since the business has a gross margin of 41% compared to cannabis 40%.

The cannabis segment made $61.2 million during the quarter, while its distribution and wellness made $68.1 million and $14.8 million, respectively. 

Wall Street analysts expect that the revenue will come in at $216 million, a 11.6% increase from the same period a year earlier. Its annual revenues are expected to br $902 million, followed by $954 million in the next financial year.

Tilray Brands will also continue to narrow its annual loss per share to 0.08 cents to 0.03 cents in the next year. 

Tilray stock price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the TLRY share price has been in a consolidation phase in the past few years, as we wrote here. It recently dropped below the key support level at $1.52, its lowest level in 2023 and the most part of 2024. This price was also the lower side of the descending triangle chart pattern, a popular continuation sign. 

The stock has moved below all moving averages, while the accumulation and distribution indicator has continued falling. 

Therefore, with sentiment for the stock so low, a strong bullish breakout cannot be ruled out. If this happens, the stock will likely rise to $1.83, its highest swing on November 4. 

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The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has stabilized in the past two weeks, ending a four-week slump that started in November when it soared to a record high of $29.45. So, is this blue-chip dividend ETF a good asset to buy in 2025?

Schwab US Dividend Equity scorecard for 2024

The SCHD ETF fell short once again in 2024 even as it surged to a record high. Its stock jumped by 8% even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices soared by 26.3% and 26.27%, respectively.

While the price return is a good metric, it does not tell the real story since it does not include the dividends paid to shareholders. The SCHD ETF’s total return for 2024 was about 12%, while the other two had 26% and 27%, respectively. 

The SCHD struggled because of its lack of exposure in the hottest sector in Wall Street: technology. Unlike the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, the SCHD does not have a good exposure to the fast-growing companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Microsoft.

The technology sector accounts for just 10% of the fund, making it the fourth-smallest one after utilities, basic materials, and communication services. 

Technology stocks have done well, with five of the biggest companies globally being in the sector. Eight tech companies have a market cap of over $1 trillion, and more others will likely join the group in the next few years. 

The tech companies in the SCHD ETF are old firms that are not growing as fast, including firms like Cisco, Texas Instruments, and Insperity. 

Instead, the SCHD is made up of companies in other slow-growing sectors. Financial services companies account for about 20% of its business. It is followed by companies in the healthcare, consumer defensive, energy, industrials, and consumer cyclical.

According to its website, Pfizer, a highly-troubled pharmaceutical giant, is the biggest company in the SCHD ETF, accounting for 4.43% of the fund. The other top companies in the fund are Abbvie, Coca-Cola, Cisco, Blackrock, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Texas Instruments.

Outlook for 2025

Analysts are still highly upbeat about American stocks in 2025 as we wrote in this S&P 500 index forecast.

The general view is that corporate earnings will be strong this year and that the stock market will be boosted by Trump’s deregulation and tax cuts. 

However, as I have warned before, there is a risk that the stock market will go through major headwinds this year because of Trump’s trade wars and the bond market. Recent data shows that bond yields have soared, and the thirty-year has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern pointing to more gains. 

Higher bond yields may push investors from the so-called dividend funds like SCHD and just invests in money market funds. They may also punish stock investors. 

Therefore, after two years of back to back 20% gains, stocks may have a pullback this year, which will affect companies across the board. The most affected ones could be in the tech industry that have thrived amid AI tailwinds. With the AI industry expected to slow this year, there is a risk that these firms will pare back their gains.

SCHD ETF forecast

The daily chart shows that the SCHD ETF stock has been under pressure after soaring to a record high of $29.45 in November. It has stalled at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level and moved below the 50-day moving average.

The stock has formed a bearish pennant pattern whose two triangles are nearing their confluence level. It has found strong support at the 200-day moving average.

Therefore, a drop below the 200 EMA will point to more downside, with the next point to watch being at the 50% retracement point at $25, about 7.7% below the current level. 

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The Rolls-Royce share price had a spectacular performance in 2024, helped by the ongoing recovery of the civil aviation industry. RR stock soared to a record high of 600p, up by almost 1,500% from its lowest point level in 2021. This report explains why the stock has a new catalyst this year.

Small Modular Reactor as a catalyst

The main reason why the Rolls-Royce share price surged in the last few years is that the civil aviation industry rebounded. 

It also did well as the defense industry continued booming as global tensions continued rising in Europe and in the Middle East. 

The company also surged as the new CEO continued to stamp his authority in the company by boosting efficiency. He has slashed costs and sold some of the least profitable subsidiaries.

Now, the Rolls-Royce share price has a new catayst that may push it higher in the long run. It is one of the most popular players in the fast-growing industry of Small Modular Reactors (SMR).

This is one of the biggest themes in the financial market, with companies like Oklo and NuScale soaring in the past few days. 

Rolls-Royce is one of the top players that is building this technology, with the initial deployment being in the UK. 

SMRs are small nuclear powered plants that can be used to power communities or manufacturing plants. One of the major appliances for the industry is in the energy-hungry data center industry.

Just last year, Microsoft announced a deal with Constellation, while Google and Amazon have made similar deals. This is a notable deal since SMR investors are firms like Rolls-Royce, BNF Resources, Constellation, and Qatar Investment Authority

According to Rolls-Royce, one SMR plant will be the size of two football pitches and will be able to power over 1 million homes. 

If the SMR business succeeds in the UK, there are signs that other countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and some United States. Analysts expect that the SMR industry will continue doing well in the long run. Analysts expect that the market size will grow from $6 billion in 2024 to $7.14 billion in 2030.

Notably, Rolls-Royce share price has been left behind as other startups in the US surge. Oklo stock soared to a high of $27.25, up by over 400% from its lowest point in September. Similarly, the NuScale share price has soared by over 940% from its 2024 low.

Rolls-Royce share price analysis

The daily chart shows that the Rolls Royce stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. Recently, however, the stock has lost the momentum a bit. 

Along the way, the stock has formed a rising wedge chart pattern, a popular bearish sign i the market. The two lines of the wedge are nearing the confluence level, which is when a bearish breakout happens. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have formed a bearish divergence chart pattern. Therefore, the stock will likely have a bearish breakout, with the next point to watch being at 500p. 

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The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) had a fairly strong performance in 2024 as American equities delivered double-digit gains. The fund, which is the biggest actively managed ETF, rose to a record high of $60.12 in December and then pulled back to the current $58. So, what is its outlook for 2025?

JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF 2024 review

The JEPI ETF had a good performance in 2024 as investors continued embracing high-dividend active ETFs. According to ETF, it had inflows in all months except August, when it had a net outflow of $21 million.

JEPI had a net inflow of over $5 billion in 2024, which brought its assets under management to over $37 billion. Investors love the fund because of its substantially high dividend yield of over 7%, which is higher than what other dividend funds are offering. The yield is also higher than what short and long-term government bonds offer.

However, JEPI’s investors were more badly off than those who allocated their cash to traditional assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. The fund’s stock rose by 5.75%, while the S&P 500 index jumped by 26% in the same period. 

JEPI’s total return, which includes dividends, was also weaker than the what the benchmark S&P 500 index offered. It rose by 13.80%, while the SPY ETF’s total return was 28%.

This performance was likely because JEPI’s gains are usually capped when the benchmark index is in a strong uptrend. 

For starters, JEPI is a covered call ETF that has two key dimensions. In the first step, the fund has invested in a group of companies that are members of the S&P 500 index. And in the next one, it has sold call options for the S&P 500 index. 

A call option gives the fund a right, but not the obligation to buy the S&P 500 at a certain strike price. The gains are usually capped when the index is in a strong uptrend and hits the strike price. 

JEPI ETF outlook for 2025

The JEPI ETF’s performance will depend on the overall trends in the stock market. Most Wall Street analyst expect that US equities will continue doing well this year, with those at Oppenheimer and UBS predicting that the S&P 500 index will hit $7,100 this year. The fund will likely do well if these estimates are correct. 

Analysts are citing the incoming Trump administration, which will focus on some friendly policies like tax cuts and deregulation. They also expect that the AI theme will continue to dominate the financial market during the year. 

However, I believe that the stock market will take a breather after rising for two consecutive years. For one, I expect that the recent AI tailwinds will start fading as the industry starts to slow. The most recent NVIDIA earnings showed that  the company’s growth was slowing.

There is also a risk that bond vigilantes will return as Trump focuses on unfunded tax cuts as we saw in the UK a few years ago.

JEPI ETF analysis

The daily chart shows that the JEPI peaked at $60.12 on December 2 and then retreated to $58, as I predicted. This retreat happened after the stock formed a rising wedge chart pattern, a popular bearish sign. It has moved below the lower side of the wedge at $59.9. 

The stock has formed a strong support at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $56. It has also found support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).

Therefore, the outlook for the JEPI ETF is mildly bearish, with the next point to watch being at $53, the 50% retracement point, which is about 7.7% below the current level.

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