Cryptocurrency prices moved sideways this week even after the United States published encouraging consumer inflation data. Bitcoin was stuck below $60,000 while Ethereum moved slightly below $60,000. The total valuation of all cryptocurrencies remained at $2.04 trillion while the crypto fear and greed index moved to the fear zone of 37.

The main catalyst for digital coins this week was the US inflation data, which showed that the headline CPI dropped to 2.6% in August, its lowest level in over two years. This report, which came after the US released weak jobs numbers, signaled that the Fed will start cutting rates next week.

A key risk to have in mind is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also have a meeting next week, meaning that the Japanese yen carry trade unwind could come back. Last month, stocks and cryptocurrencies plunged after the BoJ hiked rates, narrowing the spread between US and Japanese rates.  This article provides a forecast of top cryptocurrencies like Quant (QNT), Mantra (OM), and Ripple (XRP).

Quant price forecast

Quant is a top cryptocurrency in the tokenization industry. Its overledger technology helps companies like banks and others in the financial services industry build tokenized solutions. 

The QNT token was in the spotlight this week, bouncing back to its highest point since July 18. It has soared by over 54% from its lowest level this year, giving it a market cap of $933 million and making it one of the biggest coins in the industry.

Quant token jumped amid rising social media and wallet activity in the network. On the daily chart, it has risen from a low of $50.13 to almost $80. It has also formed a double-bottom chart pattern, which is a popular bullish sign.

The coin has also jumped above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tilted upwards. Therefore, Quant will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at $83.20, its lowest swing in October last year. 

The risk for Quant is that, as shown below, the number of smart money holders has been in a strong downtrend. It has 12 smart money holders, down from over 20 earlier this year. Also, the balance held by smart money has moved from over 50k to less than 7k.

Mantra price analysis

Mantra, another top player in the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in the industry. It has jumped by over 6,200% from its lowest point in 2023.

This rally has happened because of the ongoing demand for tokenization assets and its strong staking yield, which stands at over 21%. Unlike other tokens, Mantra has completed its token unlocks, meaning that there will be no significant dilutions in the future.

On the daily chart, the OM token formed a bottom at $0.8541 recently and formed a triple-bottom there. In most periods, a triple-bottom is one of the most bullish signs in the market. It has moved above its neckline at $1.068, its highest swing on August 24.

Mantra’s 25-day and 50-day moving averages have formed a bullish crossover. It has also retested the upper side of the ascending channel shown in green while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising.

Therefore, Mantra’s outlook is extremely bullish, with the next point to watch being its all-time high at $1.4, which is about 22.5% above the current level. 

Ripple XRP price analysis

Ripple’s XRP price has moved sideways in the past few weeks, in sync with other cryptocurrencies. This week, the token rose after Grayscale launched the XRP Trust, as it tests waters on whether a Ripple ETF will work. Odds are that a Ripple ETF will not be popular, especially after the disappointing performance of Ethereum funds. 

The other potential catalyst for XRP is the upcoming launch of Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, which will be regulated and backed 1:1 on the US dollar. 

Ripple hopes that the token will become as popular as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which are making their developers billions of dollars. However, the risk is that the industry is saturated, with Tether having the biggest market share. 

On the daily chart, the XRP token is hovering at the 50-day and 25-day moving averages as it attempts to establish direction. It remains above the key support level at $0.4300, its lowest swing in April this year.

It is also hovering slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the token will likely remain in this range for a while as bulls wait for the next catalyst. 

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Ethereum price has remained in a strong bear market this month amid negative headlines from the biggest chain in the crypto industry. ETH was trading at $2,360 on Friday, down by over 42% from its highest point this year. It is also hovering near its lowest point since February this year. 

Ethereum ETF outflows

The first big headline is that Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are not doing well two months after launch. 

Data compiled by SosoValue shows that these funds have had cumulative outflows of over $582 million since launch. This week, they have had outflows in the last two consecutive days, with the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) being the most affected. 

ETHE has over $4.1 billion in assets, down from over $10 billion when it was launched. It is followed by the Grayscale Mini Ethereum Fund (ETH), which has over $889 million in assets because of its cheaper expense ratio. The Blackrock Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has $800 million while Fidelity Ethereum ETF (FETH) has $323 million.

There are two main reasons why Ethereum ETFs are not seeing traction among investors. First, they are relatively expensive to have. Grayscale’s ETHE has an expense ratio of 2.5%, which is one of the biggest in the ETF industry. Its ETH ETF, however, has a lower expense ratio of 0.15%, which explains why it has become more popular among investors.

Second, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a feature known as staking, where users deposit their coins and earn monthly rewards. Data by StakingRewards shows that Ethereum has a staking reward of 3.22%.

Therefore, investors who allocate their cash to Ethereum will do much better than those who buy ETFs. A 3.22% annual return means that an investor with $10,000 invested in Ether can expect to make $322, which is a great return.

However, it is also worth noting that the amount of staked Ethereum has been in a downward trend in the past few weeks, mostly because of the falling prices. Data shows that over 298k ETH worth over $703 million have left staking pools.

Ethereum formed a death cross

The other reason why the ETH price has plunged is that the coin has formed a death cross chart pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bearish crossover pattern.

In most periods, a death cross is one of the most popular bearish patterns in the financial market. It often leads to a significant drop of an asset. Indeed, Ether has already fallen by over 15% since this cross happened. 

Ethereum also formed a double-top chart pattern whose neckline was at $2,815, its lowest level on May 1. The double-top is another highly popular bearish sign in the market. ETH has also crashed below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the ETH token will likely remain under pressure in the coming weeks, especially if it drops below the key support at $2,150, its lowest point this month. 

Insider sales are rising

The other main reason why Ethereum price has plunged is that insiders have been selling ETH tokens aggressively.

Vitalik Buterin, the network’s creator, has been on a selling spree. He has sold tokens worth almost $10 million in the past few weeks. 

Similarly, the Ethereum Foundation has been in a strong selling spree as well. In most cases, investors often sell assets when insiders are selling because of the view that they know something that the broader market does not know.

At the same time, the futures open interest has been in a strong downward trend in the past few weeks. It had an open interest of over $10 billion on Thursday, down by over $17 billion earlier this year. This is a sign of waning demand among investors.

On the positive side, there are signs that the number of Ethereum tokens in exchanges has been in a downward trend. They stand at over 22.61 million, according to data by Nansen. This is a 0.86% drop from the same period last week. 

Competition rising

Gone are the days when Ethereum was the only game in town. While it has the biggest market share in key areas, other networks are catching up.

Most recently, Justin Sun’s Tron launched SunPump, whose crypto tokens have a market cap of over $608 million. Sun, the biggest DEX on Tron has seen a strong increase in activity. 

Other networks are gaining market share. Base, the layer-2 network launched by Conbase, has attracted millions of wallets from around the world. Other fast-growing Ethereum competitors are Solana and Arbitrum. Solana has become a key player in the DePin industry.

This competition has drawn more investors to these projects. For example, Tron was trading at $0.15, a few points below its all-time high. At the same time, the volume of Ethereum NFTs has dropped sharply in the past few months.

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It was another dull week in the cryptocurrency market as the crypto fear and greed index slipped to the fear zone of 37 while Bitcoin remained in a consolidation phase. Bitcoin was trading below $60,000 while Ethereum fell below $2,500. This article looks at Tron (TRX), VeChain (VET), and Helium (HNT). 

Helium price prediction

Helium is a top player in the Solana ecosystem. It is a platform in the Decentralized Public Infrastructure (DePIN) focusing on the connectivity industry. 

Helium’s goal is to use the blockchain technology to help people access broadband at a relatively low cost. People from around the world can share their internet in exchange of rewards, often in HNT. 

Helium’s token has been one of the best-performers in the crypto industry after the developers announced that they were conducting a trial of carrier offload with two big carriers in the United States. 

Carrier offload is a situation where a provider moves some data to another network when there is substantial congestion in the network. A good example of this is when thousands of people are attending a concert and using the internet at the same time.

Helium token bottomed at $2.85 in June and has bounced back to almost $8. Along the way, the token formed a golden cross chart pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) made a bullish crossover pattern. It has remained above the two averages since then. 

Helium has also formed a rounded bottom chart pattern, which is often a bullish sign. However, Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have formed a bearish divergence pattern. 

Therefore, more upside will be confirmed if the Helium token rises above the key resistance point at $8.65, its highest point this month. A break above that point will point to more upside, with the next point to watch being at $11.03, up by over 42% from the current level.

HNT chart by TradingView

Tron price analysis

Tron has been in the spotlight in the past few weeks after Justin Sun launched the SunPump, its version of the Pump.fun ecosystem. Recent data shows that tokens in the ecosystem have done well in the past few weeks.

Sundog token has soared by over 58% in the last seven days, giving it a market cap of over $350 million. Tron Bull has risen by over 110% while Muncat, Suncat, SunWukong, and Vikita have soared by over 50% in the same period. 

Altogether, these t0kens have a market cap of over $608 million while the Sunpump ecosystem has brought in over $48 million in fees since launch. Also, Tron has become the biggest chain for Decentralized Exchanges (DEX), handling over $531 million of volume in the past seven days. 

On the daily chart, we see that the Tron price topped at $0.1690 in August and has pulled back to $0.15. It has formed a break and retest pattern, by retouching the highest swing in February this year. 

Tron has remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index has pointed downwards to the neutral point of 50. Therefore, this retreat seems like a breather, meaning that the coin may resume the bullish trend as bulls target the year-to-date high of $0.1690.

TRX chart by TradingView

VeChain price forecast

VeChain, once a highly popular cryptocurrency, has become a fallen angel, with a market cap of over $1.8 billion. At its peak, the token had a valuation of over $16 billion, making it a top-15 coin.

Data also shows that VeChain’s open interest in the futures market has continued falling in the past few months. It stood at over $28 million, down from over $45 million earlier this year.

Futures open interest is an important number that looks at the volume of unfilled call and put orders in the market. 

The daily chart shows that the VeChain price peaked at $0.055 earlier this year and has now dropped by over 60% to the current $0.022. It has remained below the 50-day and 200-day EMA.

On the positive side, the Relative Strength Index has pointed upwards and is nearing the neutral point of 50. The other notable thing is that it has formed a triple bottom and a falling wedge chart patterns.

In price action analysis, these ones are some of the most bullish chart patterns in the market. Therefore, a strong break above the upper side of the descending trendline and the 50-day moving average is a positive sign.

If this happens, the next point to watch will be the 200-day moving average point at $0.0285, which is about 30% above the current level. 

The alternative scenario is where VeChain slips and retests the lower side of the wedge chart pattern.

VET chart by TradingView

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The Swiss franc continued to strengthen against the US dollar and the euro as the mood among central banks continues changing and as demand for safe havens jumped. 

The USD/CHF exchange rate was trading at 0.8495 on Friday, down by almost 8% from its highest point this year. Similarly, the EUR/CHF pair has crashed to 0.9412, lower than the year-to-date high of 0.9930. 

Safe haven demand

One of the top reasons why the Swiss currency has soared is that there is increased demand for safe havens as global risks rise. 

In the United States, public debt has jumped to a record high of $35.2 trillion and the number is rising by $1 trillion every three months or so. 

Unfortunately, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have not made dealing with the budget deficit a big priority. Trump’s actions, including tax cuts, are expected to widen the deficit substantially in the next few years.

Harris has hinted that she will support raising taxes on the wealthy to fund her social welfare projects. While her policies would reduce the deficit, they have limited chances of passing, especially if the Congress is divided. 

The Swiss franc is often seen as one of the most viable alternative currency because of the country’s neutrality and good balance sheet. Unlike the US and Europe, Switzerland rarely sanctions people and entities and it rarely gets involved in other countries affairs.

Most importantly, the country has one of the cleanest balance sheets globally with a debt to GDP ratio of less than 40%. The euro area has a figure of 90%, with countries like Italy, Greece, and Spain having higher ratios. In the United States, the ratio has crossed 100%.

SNB under pressure to intervene

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is, therefore, under pressure to intervene in the market. Just recently, a trade body representing businesses urged the bank to act fast and help to depreciate the currency. They wrote:

“The Swiss National Bank is called upon to act quickly within the scope of its mandate. The SNB has the leeway to prevent or cushion any future shock appreciation using the instruments it considers best.”

Switzerland is mostly an export-oriented country, with an annual trade surplus of over $56 billion. Some of its biggest exports are the likes of machinery, chemicals, watches, gold, and medications.

Therefore, the country tends to do well when the Swiss franc is relatively weak, especially against the euro. The SNB has several tools to use to devalue the currency, including direct interventions. However, the risk is that these interventions could see the country labelled as a currency manipulator.

ECB, SNB, and Fed cuts

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve are now being aligned on monetary policy. 

The SNB started cutting rates a few months ago and has delivered two this year. Analysts expect the bank to continue cutting in the next few meetings. Its next meeting will happen later this month. 

The European Central Bank decided to deliver rate cuts on Thursday. It brought rates down to 3.5% and analysts expect that the bank will continue slashing rates later this year. In a statement, Gediminas Simkus, the head of Lithuania’s central bank, said that the bank was expected to cut rates more in the coming meeting. He said:

“Rates will continue declining, but the speed of cuts will depend on data. The situation in the labor market is also calming down, but we still need to be careful with further decision.”

The Federal Reserve is also expected to start cutting rates when it meets next week. These cuts are necessary because of the ongoing economic weakness in the US.

Data released this week showed that the US inflation rate dropped to 2.5% last month while the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.2%.

Another report released last week showed that the labor market was still struggling, with the unemployment rate stuck above 4%. 

Therefore, the bank hopes that rate cuts wil help to stimulate the economy. What is unclear, however, is the size of the Fed cut, with the swap market pointing to a 0.25% or a 0.50% cut.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to CHF exchange rate peaked at 0.9222 in May and has been in a strong bearish downward trend since them. 

The pair formed a death cross on June 30th as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bearish crossover. It has remained below these averages. 

At the same time, the MACD indicator has formed a bullish crossover. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support level at 0.8375, its lowest point this month.

The EUR/CHF pair will also continue falling as sellers target the next key support at 0.9210, its lowest point on August 5.

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