The EUR/USD exchange rate has pulled back in the past two weeks as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded. The pair traded at 1.1165 on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of 1.1572. This article explores what to expect as policymakers pitch the euro as a viable alternative to the US dollar.
ECB leaders pitch the euro as the alternative to the US dollar
Senior European Central Bank (ECB) officials are pitching the euro to become an alternative to the US dollar. In a recent statement, ECB Vice Chairman, Louis de Guindos noted that the euro had a real chance of becoming a reserve currency in some years if additional integration happens. He said:
“I don’t think that we are in a position to be an alternative as a reserve currency, but I think we’re at the best position to become one in some years.”
Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB also noted that the euro was best positioned to become an alternative to the US dollar. She cited the fact that the euro surged during the Donald Trump tariff tantrum in April. Historically, the US dollar soars when there are elevated risks. Lagarde said:
“At a time when we see the rule of law, the judicial system, and trade rules being called into question in the US, where uncertainty is permanent and renewed daily, Europe is rightly perceived as a stable economic and political area, with a sound currency and an independent central bank.
Still, while trust in the US dollar is fading, having an alternative won’t be easy. Data shows that the US dollar accounted for about 57% of all forex reserves globally. The euro follows it at 20% and the Chinese yuan and Japanese yen at less than 5%.
The US dollar is also the dominant player in world trade, where most international trade is done using it.
Next ECB and Fed actions
One reason for the US dollar’s strength is that the US has a neutral central bank that Washington politicians do not influence. This explains why the bank has shrugged off Donald Trump’s calls to cut interest rates. It also explains why Trump has not attempted to fire Jerome Powell since that decision would be challenged in court.
The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the actions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In a recent statement, Pierre Wunsch, the head of the Belgian central bank, said that the bank should consider cutting rates below 2%.
The former hawk highlighted the growing risks facing the world economy, including the substantial trade tensions. Analysts expect that the bank will cut rates more this year, while the Fed has urged caution.
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate peaked at 1.1572 on April 21 and then retreated to 1.1165 today. It has moved below the important support at 1.1211, the highest swing in September last year, and the upper side of the cup and handle pattern.
The pair is being supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back since C&H is one of the most bullish chart patterns in technical analysis.
US retail stocks are in focus this week after the Bureau of Labour Statistics said that inflation was up slightly less-than-expected in April.
Inflation data tends to be significant for retail stocks as it directly influences consumer purchasing power and overall business costs.
According to Stephanie Link, the chief investment strategist, a handful of the US retail stocks are particularly well-positioned to own after April’s CPI reading.
Her top picks include Walmart, Amazon, and Costco.
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT)
Walmart missed revenue expectations in its fiscal first quarter and warned this week that it will begin raising prices in response to tariffs.
The company cited increased import costs stemming from the US administration’s trade policies and indicated that consumers could start seeing the impact as early as the end of May.
Still, Stephanie Link remains bullish as ever on the retail giant as a 4.5% increase in same-store sales in the US suggests “they’re crushing it.”
Plus, the NYSE-listed firm is “being conservative on guidance,” she added.
Link sees WMT as strongly positioned to absorb the tariffs-driven costs, thanks to its fortress of a balance sheet.
On CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, she dubbed Walmart an all-weather stock as 72% of its sales come from consumables.
Finally, a close to 1% dividend yield tied to WMT shares makes them all the more exciting to own in 2025.
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
Hightower’s chief investment strategist favours owning Amazon for retail exposure this year since it continues to grow its market share in eCommerce and has a strong presence globally.
According to Stephanie Link, Amazon’s scale positions it well to absorb tariff-related increases in costs.
This could even help insulate the multinational from rising competition from the likes of Temu and Shein.
All in all, if the US economy “continues to chug along and the consumer doesn’t die,” investors will remain interested in Amazon stock in 2025, she argued in a recent interview.
Note that AMZN shares are currently down more than 15% versus their year-to-date high, which makes them appealing in terms of valuation as well.
Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ: COST)
Stephanie Link counts Costco stock among her top picks for 2025 as it’s exceptionally positioned to navigate an uncertain macro environment.
She recommends owning COST this year for the strength of its membership model, as it’s known to drive customer loyalty that translates to consistent revenue streams.
Additionally, the retail behemoth’s efficient supply chain and bulk pricing strategy help it maintain profitability even in challenging economic conditions.
Like Walmart, Costco is a dividend-paying stock, currently offering a yield of 0.51%—another compelling reason to consider adding it to your portfolio.
Wall Street agrees with Link on Costco stock as well, given the consensus rating currently sits at “overweight” with price targets going as high as $1,205, indicating potential upside of more than 20% from current levels.
The S&P 500 Index continued its strong rally last week, rising to a high of $5,958, its highest point since March 3. It has jumped by over 23% from its lowest point in April, meaning that it is in a bull market.
The index jumped as the recent trade risks eased after last week’s meeting between the US and China in Switzerland. They agreed to lower their tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, and pledged to do more going forward.
There are signs that the US will reach agreements with other countries, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico. Such deals will improve the outlook of most S&P 500 Index companies.
The index also jumped as the earnings season delivered. FactSet data show that 92% of all companies in the index have published their results so far. Of these companies, their blended earnings growth was 13.6%, higher than expectations and the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth.
S&P 500 Index chart
Top S&P 500 stocks to watch next week
Many companies in the S&P 500 Index will publish their financial results next week. Some of the most notable ones are retailers like Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target. Other firms to watch will be Palo Alto Networks, Autodesk, Intuit, Analog Devices, Ralph Lauren, TJX, and V. F Corp.
US retailers to shed light on tariff impact
The biggest US retailers will publish their earnings next week and shed light on the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs on their operations.
These numbers will come after Walmart, the biggest US retailer, published strong results and hinted of what to come. Its sales jumped to $165.6 billion from the $161.5 billion it made last year. Most importantly, it e-commerce sales jumped by 22%.
Walmart also said that it will increase prices as the impact of tariffs become clear. In a statemet on Truth Social, Trump asked the company not to hike prices, but instead ‘eat’ the tariffs.
Target will be a top retailer to watch as its business has struggled in the past few years. Analysts anticipate the numbers to show that sales dropped by 0.24% to $24.1 billion, while its earnings per share moved from $2.03 to $1.69.
Meanwhile, analysts expect Home Depot’s revenues to be $39.27 billion, a 7.8% annual increase. Lowe’s revenue is expected to be $21 billion, down by 1.69% from last year.
Software companies: Palo Alto Networks, Intuit, and Autodesk
In addition to retailers, some large software companies in the S&P 500 Index will publish their results next week.
Palo Alto Networks, one of the biggest cybersecurity companies in the US, will be the first to report on Monday. Its stock has jumped by over 33% from its lowest point this year, and is hovering at its highest point since March.
Analysts expect the data to reveal that Palo Alto Networks’ revenues rose by 14.8% in the last quarter to $2.28 billion. The guidance for the currency financial year will be $9.18 billion, a 14.3% annualized increase.
Intuit stock price has also jumped by over 26% from its lowest point this year, and is now hovering at its highest point in months. The company, which runs the biggest accounting software in the world, will publish its numbers on Thursday. Analysts expect the numbers to show that its revenue rose by 12.2% to $7.56 billion.
The other top S&P 500 stocks to watch next week will be Autodesk, Analog Devices, Snowflake, Urban Outfitters, Ralph Lauren, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale.
Moody’s stock price has bounced back in the past few weeks, mirroring the performance of most companies in Wall Street. MCO, which counts Warren Buffett as an investor, jumped to a high of $488, its highest point since March 4, and 30% above its lowest point this year. This article explores whether Moody’s shares will keep rising.
Moody’s business is doing well
Moody’s is one of the biggest companies in the financial services industry. It is a top credit rating agency, where it competes with S&P Global and Fitch Ratings.
Moody’s makes money by charging fees to issuers of debt securities, which help lenders to determine the creditworthiness of these companies and countries. It also earns fees for rating new debt isssuances and surveillance fees.
The company also has a large analytics business in which it offers subscriptions and software licensing.
Moody’s is often seen as an all-weather company that makes money in all market conditions. It annual results shows that its revenue has been growing in the past few years, moving from $5.3 billion in 2020 to $7.08 billion last year.
Moody’s is also a high-margin company as it generated a net profit of $2.05 billion, giving it a net income margin of 29.15%.
The most recent results showed that the company’s business continued doing well in the first quarter. Its revenue rose by 8% to $1.065 billion, a record figure. Most of this revenue came from the Corporate Finance Group followed by Structured Finance, and Publi, Project, and Infrastructire Finance.
Analysts are optimistic that Moody’s revenue will come in at $1.82 billion in the second quarter. They also expect that its earnings per share will be $3.28. For the year, analysts expect that its revenue growth will be 4.45% to $7.4 billion, while the earnings per share will move from $12.47 to $13.61.
Most analysts have a bullish outlook for the Moody’s stock, with the average target being at $502, up from the current $488. Some of the most bullish analysts are from Baird, Wells Fargo, and Barclays.
Still, the risk is that Moody’s is not a cheap company. Data shows that the company has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 39, up from the sector median of 11.46. Its non-GAAP P/E ratio is 35.9, also higher than the sector median of 10.9.
Moody’s valuation metrics are also higher than those of S&P Global, which has a forward P/E ratio of 37 and a non-GAAP multiple of 30.
The daily chart shows that the MCO stock price bottomed at $377.75 in April as the tariff jitters continued. It has then rebounded and moved to $488 today.
The stock has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index is nearing the overbought level.
The risk, however, is that the Moody’s stock price has formed a rising wedge pattern, a popular bearish sign. Its two lines are about to converge, which may lead to a bearish breakdown.
The stock is also forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern whose shoulders are at $435. Therefore, the stock will likely drop and retest the support at $435, and then resume the upward trend.
Argentina’s Downtown Buenos Aires is home to a thriving underground network of cash merchants known as arbolitos.
However, their business is seeing a rapid downturn.
According to Reuters, under Argentina’s severe currency regulations, informal money dealers thrived for years, providing residents with access to US dollars as the peso’s value collapsed.
That reality is now being turned upside down by libertarian President Javier Milei’s economic shock therapy.
Milei removed most of a six-year-old system of currency controls last month, giving Argentines freer access to dollars and closing the gap between official and informal exchange rates.
This is part of a sweeping reform to stabilise an economy hurting from inflation, capital flight, and dwindling investor confidence over the years.
FX reform reduces the black market
For Argentines and enterprises, the reform has made life easier. Companies can now purchase dollars for imports straight from the official market, bypassing past bureaucratic hurdles.
Meanwhile, ordinary consumers no longer need to seek black market bargains to protect the value of their wages.
For street traders, however, the impact has been fast and unpleasant.
The black market, which has long been a part of daily life in Argentina, has seen its margins shrink as the difference between official and unofficial exchange rates narrows.
For the first time since 2019, the two rates are effectively linked, thanks to the reversal of capital curbs imposed to preserve the sinking peso.
Economists believe that this normalisation is rebuilding credibility in the financial system.
It also increases taxable economic activity because fewer people rely on off-the-books monetary transactions.
Policy wins praise from investors
Milei’s currency reform is part of a larger initiative to open up the economy and attract foreign investment.
Last month, the country signed a $20 billion contract with the International Monetary Fund, providing economic stability for a volatile nation. The ultimate goal is to eliminate capital controls.
The new deal will allow companies to repatriate profits without restrictions, a crucial breakthrough which observers say has also been welcomed by international markets.
The most important question, though, is how and where that capital will slosh through the domestic economy.
The black market continues to be in demand
However, the reforms have not helped all sectors equally. The stronger official exchange rate has made Argentina more expensive for foreign tourists, resulting in a 25% reduction in incoming tourism in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.
This has lost the economy a critical source of hard currency, even as the country opens up to foreign investors.
Despite the improvements, the illicit market is not completely gone. Argentina’s significant informal workforce, which consists of workers and small business owners who operate outside of the regular tax system, continues to rely on unofficial currency exchange to move undeclared revenue or avoid inspection.
Many Argentines have traditionally switched pesos to dollars in order to protect themselves from financial turmoil.
However, in today’s economy, with stagnating earnings and growing costs, fewer individuals can afford to save, much less convert.
Wage stagnation undermines dollar demand
Inflation has slowed somewhat since Milei took office, but real wages for those in the public sector have continued to decline.
As a result, many Argentines, such as teachers and civil servants, say they can’t afford to buy dollars anymore, even if they wanted to.
And in a country of hyperinflation, where the loss of family purchasing power is displacing the US dollar as a safety tool, this is not merely a government policy but now a household-level truth.
Milei’s high-risk economic experiment has resulted in the disappearance of arbolitos from Buenos Aires pavements, potentially reshaping Argentina’s financial environment in the future.
Archer Aviation Inc (NYSE: ACHR) has been named the official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympics. Shares of the eVTOL company are up 10% at the time of writing.
ACHR’s electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles are now slated to be used in several ways, including transportation of VIP guests, fans, and stakeholders at the LA28 Games, a press release confirmed on Friday.
Including today’s gain, Archer Aviation stock is up more than 100% versus its year-to-date low.
Archer Aviation stock has a trillion-dollar opportunity
Archer Aviation is increasingly becoming a key name in the fast-growing air taxi market that many believe will be worth more than a trillion-dollar over the next few years.
ACHR shares continue to attract investors this year as the company is playing it smart.
On the one hand, it’s committed to commercial applications of the eVTOLs – while on the other, it’s working with the defense sector as well.
Together, this dual-focused approach could help Archer Aviation grow its annual revenue into the billions by the end of this decade. Note that ACHR stock is already trading at a multi-year high at writing.
ACHR shares could benefit from recent partnerships
Archer Aviation is an exciting pick for exposure to urban air mobility, also because it’s not the one to paint a rosy picture of what the future “may” look like.
It has the numbers to substantiate that it’s working diligently towards that future.
For example, the NYSE-listed firm currently has a backlog of some $6 billion, signalling strong demand for its eVTOLs.
Plus, it has teamed up with notable names like Anduril Industries and even the market favourite, Palantir Technologies, in a show of its commitment to transforming the way people get around a city.
ACHR’s team up with Palantir is particularly thrilling since it aims at revolutionising aviation logistics with the use of artificial intelligence, which could unlock extraordinary upside for Archer Aviation stock over time.
What Archer Aviation’s current valuation tells us
A $6 billion order book makes Archer Aviation stock grossly undervalued at current levels since a multiple of just 2x on that backlog makes ACHR worth $24 a share at least, indicating potential upside of another 80% from here.
What’s also worth mentioning is that a 2x multiple is unusually conservative for high-growth tech names, which Archer Aviation is by all means, especially after its team-up with Palantir.
It’s fairly common for high-growth tech companies to command a multiple of 5x or even 10x their estimated revenue.
That’s part of the reason why Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its bullish view on ACHR shares after the LA28 Olympics news on Friday.
The urban air mobility specialist does not currently pay a dividend, though.
According to ship monitoring data, China has emerged as the biggest consumer of Canadian petroleum delivered via the newly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, showing the significant shift in global oil flows caused by geopolitical concerns and shifting trade dynamics.
On May 1, 2024, the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline, or TMX, resumed full operations following a massive expansion.
The C$34 billion project boosted the pipeline’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), giving Canadian producers direct access to the Pacific Coast and allowing for expanded exports to Asian markets.
Since achieving full operational capacity in June 2024, the pipeline has changed Canada’s oil export scene.
According to data from ship tracking service Kpler, China has imported an average of 207,000 bpd from TMX, a significant rise over the 7,000 bpd average during the preceding decade.
In contrast, the United States received approximately 173,000 bpd from the same route during this time.
Due to the intensifying trade dispute between the United States and Canada under President Donald Trump, Canada has been moving to diversify away from the United States, which takes about 90% of Canadian oil exports.
Oil is currently exempt from US tariffs, but previous threats of crude duties and a more protectionist tone from Washington have prompted Canadian officials and producers to pursue more permanent and diversified markets.
The United States’ sanctions on key crude providers, including Russia and Venezuela, have exacerbated these efforts, since they have restricted choices available to Chinese processors.
Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, has long been limited by its location. Alberta, the largest oil-producing province, is landlocked, which limits direct access to international markets.
TMX is Canada’s only east-west pipeline, capable of reaching tidewater ports and providing direct access to the Asia-Pacific region.
Asian markets gain strategic importance
Although many market watchers expected the US West Coast to be the principal recipient of TMX crude due to its proximity, Asia has emerged as the preferred destination.
In addition to China, South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan have expanded their imports of Canadian crude, indicating Asia’s growing demand for diverse energy sources.
Statistics Canada reported a 60% year-over-year rise in Canadian petroleum shipments to non-US destinations in 2024, reaching an annual record of nearly 183,000 barrels per day.
China’s dominant position as a TMX customer reflects both geopolitical and economic factors.
Chinese refiners are concerned about becoming overly reliant on Russian supply, while US sanctions have made oil from Venezuela and other sanctioned countries less profitable.
Canadian oil provides a relatively reliable and politically neutral choice.
Capacity constraints and future growth
In 2024, TMX operated at 77% capacity on average, falling short of the objective of 83% due to the pipeline expansion.
The exorbitant tolls required to compensate for cost overruns during the expansion contributed to this disparity.
According to filings with the Canada Energy Regulator, usage is projected to reach 84% in 2025 and 92% by 2027.
Its operator, Trans Mountain Corp., is also considering future expansion projects that could increase that capacity by up to 200,000 to 300,000 bpd.
Most of this projected volume will likely head to Asia, where strong demand for stable, non-sanctioned crude remains, according to industry analysts.
With trade friction continuing and energy security remaining an important priority for importing countries, Canada’s function as a dependable oil provider is forecast to increase.
Developing conditions regarding TMX provide evidence of a longer-term shift from North American reliance to a new, wider, export policy with emphasis on the Asian theatre.
Novo’s shares have fallen 50% over the past year, a stunning reversal for the maker of Wegovy and Ozempic, two of the most recognisable names in obesity and diabetes care.
Analysts expect the weight-loss drug market to expand significantly in the next decade, potentially reaching $100 billion globally.
Jorgensen’s ouster signals deeper turmoil at the heart of the fast-evolving market, where GLP-1 drugs—once seen as miracle treatments—are now facing stiffer competition and growing scrutiny from insurers and policymakers.
Eli Lilly’s rise reshapes market leadership
The most formidable challenger has emerged in the form of US-based Eli Lilly, whose GLP-1 injection Zepbound has steadily gained market share against Novo’s Wegovy.
Lilly’s latest clinical data has only solidified its momentum.
A recent late-stage trial showed that orforglipron, the company’s experimental pill, helped diabetes patients lose nearly 8% of their body weight in 40 weeks—beating Ozempic’s performance in a similar cohort.
Lilly also boasts retatrutide, a weekly injection that delivered 24.2% weight loss in a mid-stage trial, one of the strongest results in the sector so far.
The company expects to seek approval for orforglipron by year-end and continues to invest aggressively, including a recent deal with Chinese biotech Laekna to develop a muscle-preserving obesity drug.
Novo races to catch up with next-generation drugs
To reclaim lost ground, Novo Nordisk is banking on new treatments.
It is developing amycretin in both pill and injectable form.
Early trial data suggest significant weight-loss potential, with the injectable version helping patients lose 22% of their body weight in 36 weeks.
The company is also pushing forward with CagriSema, though late-stage trial results have underwhelmed, falling short of internal benchmarks.
Novo hopes to submit CagriSema for regulatory approval in early 2026.
It has also broadened its pipeline through partnerships, including a $2 billion licensing agreement with United Laboratories for a triple-hormone targeting obesity drug.
Lilly and Novo are no longer alone in the race. A host of major pharmaceutical companies and biotech firms are piling into the obesity space, lured by the multibillion-dollar market opportunity.
Pfizer recently dropped out after safety concerns in a trial involving danuglipron, its oral GLP-1 candidate.
But others are forging ahead. Roche has made big bets, acquiring Zealand Pharma’s petrelintide and Carmot Therapeutics’ CT-388, both GLP-1-based drugs, for a combined $8 billion.
Early data on Carmot’s second candidate also appears promising.
Amgen’s MariTide, an experimental drug that led to 20% weight loss in a mid-stage trial, is set to begin late-stage studies by mid-year.
Analysts note that the drug’s side effects may be more pronounced than competitors’, but its efficacy places it among the front-runners.
Merck, AstraZeneca, smaller firms also seek a slice of the market
Pharma giants traditionally absent from obesity treatments are now seeking a slice of the market.
In December, Merck struck a $2 billion licensing deal for a GLP-1 pill developed by Hansoh Pharma.
AstraZeneca’s licensed candidate AZD5004 has cleared early safety hurdles and is in mid-stage trials.
Smaller firms are also showing potential. Altimmune’s pemvidutide posted a 15.6% average weight loss in trials, although with notable gastrointestinal side effects.
Viking Therapeutics reported nearly 15% weight loss in 13 weeks with its injectable VK2735, and Zealand Pharma’s petrelintide posted 8.6% average weight loss in an early study.
Structure Therapeutics, meanwhile, has shown modest success with its oral candidate GPCR, delivering 6.2% weight loss over 12 weeks.
While not as potent as rivals, the convenience of an oral drug remains attractive to patients and investors alike.
Access remains an issue
Despite scientific advancements, access to these drugs remains a critical issue.
Employers are struggling with rising health coverage costs, leading many to exclude weight-loss drugs from their insurance plans.
Medicare still does not reimburse for obesity treatments in most cases.
A Biden administration plan to expand coverage was recently struck down by the Trump administration, leaving most patients to pay out of pocket. At an average of $500 per month, affordability remains a barrier for millions.
Cox Communications has been a potential takeover target for years. But despite several attempts from multiple suitors, the company always remained steadfast in rejecting all buyout proposals.
However, that changed today, May 16, with an announcement that Cox has agreed to be acquired by Charter Communications Inc in a deal that values it at $34.5 billion.
So, what made Cox finally say “yes” to an acquisition after resisting it for so long?
According to industry expert Craig Moffett, it may have been evolving dynamics of the wireless market, particularly an opportunity for Cox to benefit from Charter’s existing mobile strategy, that made the cable television company yield on Friday.
Charter-Cox merger is all about wireless
Craig Moffett is convinced that the Charter-Cox merger is less about cable industry consolidation and more about the companies positioning themselves for a wireless-dominated future.
In the official announcement, both Charter and Cox were described as providers of mobile and broadband services, with mobile coming first, noted the senior MoffettNathanson analyst in an interview with CNBC today.
This highlights the increasing importance of wireless in the cable industry’s business model.
Cable operators have long been transitioning away from reliance on traditional video services, shifting focus to broadband as the core offering.
Now, the next frontier is “mobile”, he added.
Cox gets access to a better wireless deal
Another notable factor influencing Cox’s decision may have been Charter’s existing agreement with Verizon, argued Craig Moffett on “The Exchange”.
Charter operates as a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MNVO), reselling VZ’s network access under better financial terms compared to Cox’s current arrangement with Verizon.
The merger enables Cox to take advantage of Charter’s more favourable wireless deal, strengthening its ability to compete in the bundled mobile and broadband market.
Moffett believes Cox recognised that if the industry’s future is centred around wireless bundles, having an advantageous relationship with Verizon was crucial.
Merging with Charter wins it access to a better wireless strategy, positioning itself to thrive in an increasingly mobile-centric industry.
Charter-Cox merger is inspired by changing industry priorities
While traditional cable TV may still be part of the equation, Craig Moffett said that cable providers have been moving away from viewing video services as their core business for decades.
Instead, broadband has been the backbone of profitability, and mobile is rapidly becoming the next major area for growth.
While competitors like AT&T and Verizon are aggressively expanding their bundle offerings, Cox likely determined that continuing to operate alone would leave it at a disadvantage.
A partnership gives it a strong market position without having to build a competitive wireless infrastructure of its own, he added.
Bottom line
All in all, Craig Moffett believes the Charter-Cox merger is entirely about strategy.
Teaming up with Charter, Cox gains stronger wireless capabilities, access to better infrastructure deals, and a firmer foothold in an evolving industry landscape.
The merger signals that broadband and mobile convergence are now the driving forces in telecom.
If Charter and Cox execute their integration effectively, this deal could solidify their standing as major players in the next phase of the industry.
April’s numbers for inflation looked good. Producer prices dropped. Retail sales were flat. Some even said inflation was cooling.
But often, the real story is hiding in the details. What we’re seeing isn’t relief, but the start of something harder to measure and much more telling.
The tariffs are finally kicking in, and the real price shock hasn’t started yet.
What does the US inflation outlook look like for the rest of 2025?
Are prices really going down?
In April, US producer prices fell by 0.5%. That was the biggest monthly drop since the early pandemic and much steeper than the 0.2% rise economists had expected, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
On the surface, this looked like progress in the inflation fight. It wasn’t.
The drop was mostly caused by falling margins in trade services. That’s the money businesses make between wholesale and retail.
A 1.7% collapse in that category tells us companies are swallowing higher costs rather than passing them on, for now.
Core PPI, which excludes food, energy and trade, also slipped by 0.1%.
But goods prices, especially those excluding food and energy, rose 0.4%, the fastest increase in more than two years.
This means businesses are paying more to make things, but they’re not raising prices yet. That can’t last forever.
Why are retailers holding back?
Retailers aren’t blind to what’s coming. They’re preparing. In March, sales jumped 1.7% as consumers rushed to buy before the Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs took effect.
In April, retail sales barely moved, up just 0.1%, while seven of the thirteen major categories fell. Control group sales, which feed into GDP, dropped by 0.2%.
Consumers are reacting to what they expect and not what they’ve already seen. That’s a key difference this time around. In 2018, it took several months for tariffs to push up prices on washing machines.
This time, the reaction is faster. The psychology of inflation has changed. People expect prices to rise. So they’re slowing down now.
Walmart confirmed it will start raising prices later this month. Electronics, toys and certain imported foods will be hit first. That move alone will shape the broader retail trend. If Walmart can’t hold prices down, smaller players won’t either.
That means inflation won’t follow a smooth path. It will swing more sharply and unpredictably.
He warned that inflation “could be more volatile going forward than in the inter-crisis period of the 2010s.”
The Fed knows tariffs are supply shocks. They raise costs at the point of entry, filter through manufacturers and retailers, and only show up in CPI with a delay.
So while CPI looked soft in April, and core PCE is expected to stay near 2.9%, the groundwork for higher inflation later in the year is already being laid.
If inflation surprises to the upside in June or July, the Fed could be forced to hold rates steady, or even pause cuts entirely. That would catch both markets and consumers off guard.
How are companies reacting?
The pressure on corporate margins is no longer theoretical. It’s in the data. Retailers and manufacturers are quietly shifting strategies. Some are raising prices.
Others are pulling entire product lines that would be too expensive to sell at a profit. A few are leaning harder on suppliers or changing sourcing strategies altogether.
Walmart, with only about 15% of its products coming from China and a strong domestic grocery base, has more flexibility than most.
Even so, it couldn’t hold off forever. Its CEO called the current tariffs “too high” and said they can’t absorb the cost any longer.
Other companies like Target, Mattel and Home Depot are facing the same decisions. Trump’s tariffs have become both an economic cost and a political minefield.
When Amazon considered showing the added cost of tariffs on product pages, it was met with threats.
Even Walmart, which is typically careful with political statements, openly criticized the tariffs this week.
What does the data really say?
It says the squeeze is on. Companies are taking the hit on margins. Consumers are pulling back before prices rise.
Goods prices, especially imported ones, are creeping up underneath the surface. Services inflation is soft, but that may not last if wage growth holds and travel demand returns.
The full inflation picture is not yet visible in headline CPI or PCE. But it’s already forming in core goods categories and corporate earnings calls.
If the data holds, we’re two to three months away from seeing it clearly in consumer-level reports.
US inflation 2025 outlook: What to expect
Inflation in 2025 is running on a delayed fuse. Producer prices dropped because businesses took the hit. But that’s only sustainable for a short time.
The timeline now looks like this:
May–June: Retailers begin raising prices. Walmart and others implement selective hikes on tariff-exposed goods.
June–July: CPI begins to reflect higher prices in consumer goods. Core inflation ticks higher.
July–September: Margin compression eases as pass-through accelerates. Fed reassesses its rate path. Market expectations for cuts begin to shift.
The price increases won’t be massive at first. They’ll show up in targeted categories like electronics, toys, appliances, food staples with high import ratios.
But the direction will be clear. Inflation is not falling. It’s just being delayed by a short-term buffer.
Walmart was “canary in the coal mine”. We can expect that more retailers will follow by mid-June.
What comes next is less predictable. If tariffs continue to change, inflation volatility will increase. Consumers will keep adjusting their expectations faster than models can capture.
And the Fed’s ability to guide policy based on backward-looking data will be tested more than at any point since 2022.
For now, prices feel stable. But underneath, the system is already moving. By the time we see it clearly, the inflation narrative will have already turned.
