Vanda Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VNDA) fell as much as 9% today after the FDA rejected the company’s experimental therapy, tradipitant.

The therapy is aimed at treating gastroparesis, a stomach paralysis-related medical condition.

The FDA has asked Vanda Pharmaceuticals to conduct further studies before resubmitting its application.

However, VNDA isn’t holding back with the criticism as it feels hard done by the regulatory authority.

The company believes the FDA’s decision does not conform to the Food Drug and Cosmetic Act (FDCA). The company said:

The FDCA requires that the FDA review a new drug application and, within 180 days of submission, provide either an approval or an opportunity for a hearing. In this case, the FDA failed to do either.

The company also alleges that the FDA refused to hold an AdCom meeting with the company, despite it repeatedly asking for it.

An AdCom meeting is one where the FDA takes external advisors’ opinions on a drug and uses that advice to finalize its decision.

Big blow to Vanda’s already weak product pipeline

Vanda only has a few products under its belt so far. Fanapt, its drug for treating bipolar disorders, has 5 competitors.

One of those, Abilify, costs only $5 a month and is preferred for years by physicians over its counterparts.

Even though the product successfully reached the market, it is struggling to recover the costs of its clinical development.

Similarly, the company’s oral modulator for multiple sclerosis, Ponvory, is struggling.

It acquired Ponvory from Johnson & Johnson for $100 million.

However, generic drugs dominate the market and the company is left with an expensive acquisition that is unlikely to add to its profits.

Vanda’s own Hetlioz is fast becoming a victim of generic competition, with revenues nearly halving YoY.

In such circumstances, the rejection of tradipitant has dealt a serious blow to the company.

Some analysts believe that even if the drug is approved by the FDA, it is going to be ineffective in the market, just like the company’s other drugs.

Vanda’s strong cash position despite struggles

Vanda is sitting on $103 million in cash as of June 30th, 2024. Its total current assets add up to $439 million.

It also generated $641,000 in operating cash flow in the first half of the year, meaning the business is sustainable without needing external cash.

The company’s current market cap stands at $270 million.

This is a huge discount and any sign of an activist shareholder coming near the company will cause the stock to skyrocket.

Thanks to this strength, Vanda has also received two buyout offers this year.

The company has rejected both offers even though they were well above its current share price.

The persistent interest from other companies shows there is value in acquiring the company’s assets.

However, as long as the management is unable to utilize these assets to their full potential, shareholders are unlikely to receive any significant benefits.

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S&P 500 has already rallied well over 20% this year but Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist of BMO Capital Markets, sees further gains in the months ahead.

The benchmark index could climb further and hit the 6,100 level before year-end now that the US Federal Reserve has announced its first rate cut in four years, Belski told clients on Thursday.

Belski expects a stronger-than-normal fourth quarter after the central bank indicated plans to lower interest rates by another 50 basis points in 2024.

His forecast suggests potential for another 9.0% gain in the S&P 500 from here.

Belski expects the rally to continue

The S&P 500 tanked to about 5,400 in the first week of September but has since recovered back to over 5,700 at writing.

Brian Belski had raised his year-end target to a street-high of 5,600 in May.

“We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted,” he said in a research note today.

The benchmark index could retest its September low but is fairly positioned to quickly rebound and hit the 6,100 level by year-end, the BMO strategist added.

Brian Belski expects the projected upside to materialize even if the large-cap technology stocks trade sideways as he expects the rally to broaden out moving forward.

US economy may not be headed for a recession

The BMO strategist left his earnings per share expectation unchanged at $250 on Thursday. This suggests he applied 24.4 times multiplied to get to the 6,100 level year-end target.  

He agreed that the presumed price-to-earnings multiple may look elevated but said it is not when compared to the mid-1990s.

Belski finds now is comparable to the mid-1990s if the United States does not end up in a recession in the coming months.

Despite recent weakness in jobs data, many experts still foresee a soft landing ahead. Following the 50-bps rate cut the Fed announced last night, Tom Porcelli, the chief US economist at PGIM Fixed Income said:

This was an atypical big cut. We are not knocking on recession’s door. This easing and this big cut is about recalibrating for the fact that inflation has slowed so much.

Last week, the Labour Department said inflation stood at 2.5% for the year in August versus the Dow Jones estimates of 2.6%.

Excluding food and energy, however, the core CPI was up 0.3% for the month, more than 0.2% expected.

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American stocks had a strong performance this week as the Federal Reserve embarked on an interest rate cutting cycle in its bid to engineer a soft landing. The S&P 500 index jumped to a record high and analysts see it continuing its strong performance. 

Similarly, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices continued their strong comeback while American bond yields plunged. Globally, other top indices like the German DAX, Japan Nikkei 225, and French CAC 40 also continued rising.

Looking ahead, stocks will likely continue reacting to the Federal Reserve action since most companies have already published their financial results and the third-quarter numbers are around the corner. Here are some of the top stocks to watch next week.

Accenture | ACN

Accenture is the biggest IT consulting company in the world with a market cap of over $220 billion. The company partners with other firms across all industries to implement their technologies. 

Over the years, the company has become a specialist in industries like cloud computing, application development, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence. 

This year, however, the Accenture stock price has not done well even as IT spending accelerates. It has dropped by over 4% this year, underperforming the likes of Infosys, Cognizant Technology, and Wipro. 

This performance happened after it missed both on revenue and earnings in the last financial results. Its revenue came in at $16.47 billion, missing estimates by $72 million while its earnings per share of $3.04 was lower than expectations by $0.03. 

Therefore, its next earnings, scheduled on September 26, will be important as they will provide more colour about its business. Analysts expect its revenues to come in at $16.37 billion and its EPS to drop to $2.65. 

Micron | MU

Micron is a leading technology company with a market cap of over $96 billion. It is a semiconductor firm that focuses on storage and memory solutions. As a result, the firm has become a major player in the artificial intelligence industry. 

Micron stock has not done well this year as concerns about its inventories and growth rise. It has risen by less than 5% this year and is down by over 43% from its highest point this year. Analysts at Stifel, JP Morgan, and Citigroup have also trimmed their expectations about the company. 

Therefore, Micron’s financial results on September 25 will provide more information about its business. On the positive side, its up revisions in the past 90 days has been higher than the negative ones. Analysts see its revenue coming in at $7.65 billion, up from $6.8 billion in the last quarter.

Read more: Micron vs. Nvidia: why Micron might be the smarter AI investment

Costco | COST

Costco, one of the biggest players in the retail industry, will also publish its financial results on September 26. 

These numbers will come at a time when its business and stocks are doing well. It has jumped to a record high, bringing its valuation to over $402 billion.

Costco’s results will shed light on the number of subscribers after the company increased prices recently. They will also provide more information about the state of the American consumer as inflation growth slows.

The average revenue estimate is $79.99 billion, up from $58.5 billion in the previous quarter and $78 billion in the same period last year. Costco has a long record of beating analyst estimates on earnings and revenues.

The biggest concern about the Costco stock is that it is highly overvalued. It has a forward P/E ratio of 54, higher than Nvidia. That is a big number for a company whose forward growth estimate is 6.46%.

Read more: Costco stock is more overvalued than Nvidia: still a buy?

AutoZone | AZO

AutoZone stock has pulled back sharply in the past few weeks. It has dropped in the last four consecutive days, reaching its lowest point since July 26. Also, it is down by over 65 from its highest point this year.

AutoZone’s performance has diverged from Carvana, which has gone parabolic, reaching a high of $170, up by almost 280% this year. 

Its stock has underperformed because it missed its revenues in the last financial results. Its $4.2 billion revenue missed estimates by about $48.75 million. These numbers meant that its business was not growing as consumers slowed their vehicle purchases. 

Analysts expect its revenue to come in at $6.22 billion while its earnings per share will be $53.41. It has had five down revisions in the last 90 days against 3 up revisions.

There will be more companies that will publish their earnings next week. Stitch Fix, the online clothing retailer, will release its earnings on Monday. While its stock has more than doubled from its lowest point this year, it remains sharply lower than its all-time high. 

The other top companies to watch will be KB Home, THOR Industries, Cintas Corporation, Jefferies Financial Group, and CarMax.

Read more: Carvana stock price has more upside despite stretched valuation

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Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) stocks have done well in the past few days as American equities bounced back. Tesla has jumped by over 33% from its lowest point in August and is slowly nearing its highest point this year. It has jumped by over 75% from the year-to-date low.

Nvidia has jumped by over 137% this year and is up by over 30% from its lowest level in August this year. 

Tesla’s growth concerns remain

Tesla, the biggest EV company in the world, has done well even after it published weak financial results. 

Its rebound is primarily because of two main factors: robotaxis and a cheaper vehicle. Tesla hopes to launch robotaxis in key cities, a move that some analysts believe will help it become a big competitor to Uber and Lyft. 

In a recent earnings call, Elon Musk reiterated his belief that the robotaxi industry, helped by its full self-driving features, was a multi-trillion dollar opportunity for the company. 

Tesla has started testing these features in China, where Musk has established a good relationship with the country’s leaders.

Additionally, Tesla is working on a cheaper vehicle as it works to fend off its Chinese rivals. A good example of this is BYD, a company that churns out cheap vehicles with many features. One of its upcoming hybrid vehicles will have a 2,000 range without recharging and refueling.

Tesla needs these products to work to justify its valuation. While Tesla has always been a highly overvalued company, this happens at a time when it was a near monopoly in the EV industry and when its sales and margins were growing. 

Tesla has a trailing twelve-months (TTM) price-to-earnings ratio of 97 and a forward multiple of 97, making it one of the most overvalued companies in Wall Street. It also trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.30, higher than the sector median of 0.92.

Nvidia is riding the AI wave

Nvidia has also become one of the fastest-growing companies in the US because of the ongoing demand for AI products. Its annual revenue jumped from over $10 billion in 2019 to over $60 billion in 2023. 

The most recent financial results showed that its second-quarter sales surged to over $30 billion, a big increase from the $28 billion it made in the previous quarter. Its revenue in the first two quarters of the year was almost in line with what it made in 2020.

Nvidia is benefiting from three main factors. First, its GPU technology is substantially ahead of its rivals like AMD and Nvidia. 

Second, its secret sauce is the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA), a software package that lets developers use GPUs for general-purpose computing. Third, it is benefiting from the estimated $1 trillion AI infrastructure investments. 

The challenge, however, is that there are signs that the AI industry is starting to slow down since infrastructure investments have moved ahead of AI adoption. Also, like with Tesla, there is a risk that AMD is starting to gain market share in the GPU industry.

Are NVDY and TSLY good options?

Many Tesla and Nvidia investors are starting to allocate money on key ETFs that give them exposure to the stocks while generating monthly payouts.

The YieldMax TSLA Option Income Strategy (TSLY) ETF has accumulated over $700 million in assets, thanks to its 83% yield. 

On the other hand, the YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY) has over $980 million in assets and a 77% yield. 

These funds are similar, with the only difference being the assets they hold. In TSLY’s case, the fund’s holdings are made up of US Treasury notes and synthetic TSLA shares.

Most covered call ETFs initially invest in the underlying asset and then sell call options of the same asset. In TSLY and NVDY’s cases, they use synthetic assets that is based on the value of the underlying security. 

After buying the synthetic asset, the fund then sells call options contracts on the companies to generate income. These options are sold short since the company does not own the real asset.

Assume that the Tesla stock is trading at $100 and the strike price for the covered call is $105 and the premium received is $2. In this case, if the stock rises above $105.1, the fund will not participate since the strike price has been reached. This is a major limitation of these funds since they limit the upside. 

When the stock rises to $105, the fund’s profit is the $2 premium and the $5 profit, bringing the total amount to $7. It then distributes the premium to investors. 

The reality, however, is that the underlying stocks tend to do better than these covered call ETFs. As shown above, Tesla stock has dropped by 1.84% this year while the TSLY fund has dropped by 9.40%. NVDY has risen by 87% while Nvidia has jumped by 138%. 

The same has happened in the last twelve months as the NVDY has risen by 170% while NVDA rose by 108%. TSLY has dropped by 13.3% while TSLA has fallen by 8.4% in the same period.

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Cintas (CTAS) stock price has done well in the past decades, outperforming the S&P 500 index and most companies. It has risen by over 35% this year and by over 225% in the last five years. Also, it has jumped by over 1,130% in the last decade, helping it push its market cap to over $82 billion. 

Strong market share 

Cintas is a company that most Americans have never heard about because it is a business-to-business organisation. 

It is one of the biggest providers of work uniforms, which are mostly used in industries like healthcare, gaming, hospitality, automotive, and education. It provides its uniforms to companies like Ford, General Motors, Hilton, and Marriott. 

In addition to uniforms, Cintas also provides solutions like first aid and safety supplies, janitorial services, restroom supplies, training and compliance, and protective apparel.

These are highly important services that are needed by most companies in the US and other countries. Its main benefit is that companies rarely change their suppliers, which means that it has been providing these services to some companies for decades.

The uniform rental business is its biggest one, generating over $7.45 billion in 2023. It is followed by its first aid and safety services, which brought in over $1.06 billion in revenues during the year. The other services make it over $1 billion. 

Cintas’ business has been growing, albeit at a slow pace in the past few years. Its annual revenue has grown from over $5.6 billion in 2019 to over $7.4 billion in 2023. At the same time, the net profit rose from $876 million to over $1.57 billion in the same period. 

Cintas earnings ahead

The next important catalyst for Cintas stock will be its quarterly earnings scheduled for September 25. These numbers will provide more color on how the business is doing and what to expect this year. 

The most recent Q4 results showed that its revenue rose to about $2.47 billion, up from $2.28 billion in the same period in 2023. Its organic growth was about 7.5%, which is a good rate for a company that has been around for decades. 

Cintas has also been growing its margins, with the gross figure being 48% against the industry median of 31%. Its net income margin was 16.38%, higher than the industry’s median of 6.5%.

For the financial year, its net income as a percentage of revenue jumped to a record high. The company also provided a robust forward guidance for the year. It expects that its revenue will be in the range of $10.16 billion and $10.31 billion, higher than the $9.56 billion it made last year.

Analysts expect the first quarter revenues to come in at $2.5 billion, higher than the $2.38 billion it made in the same period last year. Its earnings per share of $0.95 will be higher than the 92 cents it made last year.

These numbers will likely show that the company is still growing, a trend that could accelerate now that the Fed has started to cut interest rates. 

Most importantly, the company has continued to repurchase its stock, which has dropped the number of outstanding shares from over 420 million in 2020 to 405 million today.

Read more: These 4 undervalued stocks could be hidden gems of H2 2024

Valuation concerns remain

The biggest concern for Cintas is that it is not a cheap company. This is a firm that made a net profit of $1.5 billion in the last financial year with a market cap of over $84 billion.

Data by SeekingAlpha shows that Cintas has a trailing P/E ratio of 53.20 and a forward multiple of 48. The industry median is 20.2 and 19.8, meaning that it is trading at a premium of over 140%.

Cintas also has an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 31, higher than the industry median of 11.6 while its price-to-book ratio of 17 is also higher than the industry average. 

A good way to look at a company’s valuation is to assume that you buy it at the current valuation of $84 billion. Assuming no significant growth a P/E ratio of 53 means that it would take you these years to become profitable. This explains why the average analyst’s estimate is $192 against the current $203.

Cintas stock price analysis

Turning to the weekly chart, we see that the Cintas share price has been in a strong bull run and is sitting at $203. It has moved significantly above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, which are at $166 and $146, respectively.

The stock has become highly overbought, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) soaring to over 70. Therefore, while the bull run may continue, there is a likelihood that it will pull back slightly after earnings. 

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Yesterday, Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Five9 (NASDAQ: FIVN) but slashed the price target to $35 from $47, signaling concerns over the company’s ability to execute amidst economic challenges.

This new target implies a modest 22% upside from Five9’s current price, a sharp drop from prior expectations.

The adjustment follows a series of setbacks for the cloud-based contact center provider, including reduced revenue guidance, workforce layoffs, and competitive pressures.

Five9 has struggled with weaker booking trends, further compounded by a 60% year-to-date stock decline, according to Piper Sandler analysts led by James Fish.

Other firms are also not optimistic

Piper Sandler isn’t alone in re-evaluating Five9’s potential.

Earlier in August, Baird downgraded the stock to Neutral and significantly reduced its price target to $40 from $90.

Similarly, Needham lowered its target to $48 from $90, citing concerns over growth visibility and increasing competition from industry giants like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.

The downgrade came after Five9’s second-quarter earnings report, where despite beating expectations with revenue of $252 million, the company slashed its full-year revenue guidance to $1.015 billion, down from a prior $1.055 billion.

Layoffs & acqusition

Recent developments for Five9 reflect a mixed bag of strategic decisions. The company recently announced layoffs impacting 7% of its workforce, as part of its efforts to drive shareholder value.

This move is expected to incur restructuring costs of up to $15 million but should deliver cost savings in the upcoming quarters.

Five9’s management has also hinted at potential strategic alternatives, including further activist involvement, a possible merger, or even a strategic takeout by larger players like Cisco or Salesforce.

Analysts at Piper Sandler see these alternatives as potential catalysts, but with no immediate timeline for action.

Along with its Q2 results announcement, Five9 also announced its planned acquisition of Acqueon, a real-time revenue execution platform.

This acquisition is expected to enhance Five9’s AI-powered CX platform and provide deeper integration into customer engagement strategies across marketing, sales, and service touchpoints.

The deal, set to close in the second half of 2024, aligns with Five9’s long-term goal of becoming a leading orchestration engine in the customer journey.

However, the market response to this acquisition was lukewarm, with shares dropping over 12% after the announcement, reflecting broader concerns over Five9’s immediate growth trajectory.

Lower guidance dissapoints

Five9’s second-quarter earnings report highlighted a 13.1% year-over-year revenue growth, beating expectations, but the company’s lowered guidance for the rest of 2024 was a disappointment.

The firm’s adjusted EBITDA for Q2 came in at $41.8 million, with a margin of 16.6%, down slightly from 18.6% in the prior year.

While Five9 managed to surpass $1 billion in annual revenue run rate, the firm faces pressure to improve profitability amid shrinking margins and rising competition.

Investors are now focused on whether the company’s cost-saving initiatives and AI-driven solutions can offset these headwinds.

Five9’s operating cash flow for Q2 was $19.9 million, compared to $21.9 million a year ago.

Despite these lower figures, the firm continues to push investments in its AI Genius Suite, positioning itself to capitalize on the ongoing shift toward automation in customer service.

Five9’s 21% growth in long-term enterprise subscription revenue reflects its potential in the upmarket segment, but questions remain about its ability to maintain this pace in a tightening economy.

Valuation

The company’s valuation also reflects this uncertainty. Five9 currently trades at 12.5 times its expected earnings for the next twelve months, which according to analysts is reasonable when compared to its anticipated earnings growth of 10.7% for FY2024.

The stock’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio aligns with its earnings outlook, but the company’s 11.5% revenue growth forecast for this year lags behind its historical average, leading some analysts to remain cautious.

Now, let’s examine what the charts indicate about Five9’s stock price trajectory, where technical signals could offer more clues on whether it’s time to buy, hold, or sell.

Extremely weak across timeframes

Although Five9’s stock has been in a downtrend since August 2021 when it made an all-time high above $211, it found some stability in 2023 when it traded in a $50-$90 range for most of that year.

Source: TradingView

However, that stability didn’t last with the stock falling 64% so far this year. Currently, the stock is displaying extreme weakness across time frames having recently made its 5-year low at $26.60.

Taking these factors into account, investors who have a bullish outlook on Five must avoid going long at current levels. A long position should only be considered once the stock stabilizes near current levels and doesn’t make any new lows in the coming weeks.

Traders who are bearish on the stock but haven’t shorted it must wait for a bounce back closer to $32 levels to initiate fresh short positions. If the stock reaches that level, they can initiate a short position with a stop loss at $38.2.

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PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) stock price has bounced back in the past few months, helped by its ongoing turnaround. It jumped to a high of $74.40 this month, its highest point since August 2023. It has jumped by about 45% from its lowest point in December.

PayPal has faced many headwinds

PayPal has been one of the most embattled companies in the financial services industry. Its growth exploded during the Covid-19 pandemic as the number of customers soared to a record high.

PayPal benefited from the work-at-home situation and the soaring digital money transfer. As a result, its stock soared to over $300 in 2021 and then started its downtrend, settling at $50.21 in November last year. 

Its market cap surged to over $300 billion and then slipped to below $50 billion in 2023. This valuation has jumped to over $74 billion today.

PayPal’s crash happened as it faced numerous headwinds. First, it faced the challenge of soaring competition from other fintech companies. Its money transfer division faced competition from the likes of Wise, Remitly, and Payoneer.

Its unbranded business also faced robust competition from the likes of Google Pay, Amazon Pay, Apple Pay,  Stripe, Adyen, and Alipay, among others. This is a big issue since PayPal makes a substantial amount of money from the unbranded division. 

PayPal has also been losing customers over the years. Its total number of active customers jumped to over 435 million during the pandemic, a figure that has dropped to 429 million. 

PayPal turnaround continues

Now, PayPal, under new CEO Alex Chriss, has been working to turn its business around in a bid to reinvigorate growth.

As part of the turnaround strategy, the company has announced a big round of layoffs of about 9% of its total workforce. 

It has also embarked on some financial engineering by increasing its share repurchases. These buybacks help to boost a company’s stock by making the earnings per share (EPS) higher. 

The logic behind share repurchases is simple. Assume that a company has 1,000 outstanding shares and it makes $100,000 in profit. This means that each share will be worth $100. If the company reduces the outstanding shares to 800, it means that its earnings per share will be $125. 

PayPal has also launched new products, with the PYUSD being the most notable one. PYUSD is a stablecoin that has attracted over $770 million in assets. Stablecoins make money when the developers invest the cash and earn interest. In some cases, they also make money through transaction costs.

PayPal’s challenge in the stablecoin industry is that the sector is currently controlled by Tether, which has over $118 billion in assets. Its earnings in the last financial year stood at over $6 billion, making it more profitable than Blackrock.

PayPal has also launched Fastlane, a feature that helps to simplify online shopping by letting people checkout faster. It is similar to Amazon’s 1-click and Shopify’s Shop Pay. Most recently, PayPal partnered with Adyen to promote the service. 

Read more: 3 reasons why PayPal stock is a smart investment now

PayPal boosted its guidance

The most recent financial results showed that PayPal’s revenue growth has slowed recently. Its revenue rose by 8% in the last quarter to over $7.9 billion. In the past, PayPal was used to make double-digit growth as its popularity rose. 

Its total transaction volume rose by 11% to $416 billion while its payment transactions rose by 8% to $6.6 billion. Active accounts continued to fall, reaching 429 million in the last quarter. On the positive side, there are signs that the subscriber loss is falling.

PayPal also boosted its forward guidance for the third quarter and full year. It expects that its revenue growth will be mid-single-digit while its EPS will be between 96 and 98 cents. 

What is clear, however, is that PayPal’s growth days are behind and that the company should be valued as a value stock. According to SeekingAlpha, PayPal’s forward P/E ratio stands at 18 while the trailing multiple is 17. 

In contrast, Mastercard has multiples of 38 and 35 while Visa has 31 and 30. Block, formerly known as Square, has P/E multiples of 61 and 36. PayPal will need to demonstrate more growth to justify a higher valuation.

PayPal stock price analysis

The PYPL share price bottomed at $50.21 in November last year and has rebounded to almost $75. It formed a golden cross pattern in August as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. 

The stock has now flipped the important resistance point at $70.65 into a support level. This was a notable price since it was its highest level since April this year. 

Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the stock is bullish, with the next target being the psychological point at $80, which is about 10% above the current level. A break above that point will see it jump to the next point at $100. 

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