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Recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underscores a dramatic shift in obesity trends across the US over the past decade.

The 2023 figures highlight a persistent and widespread obesity crisis, bolstering the market for weight loss drugs, where Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are currently the leading players.

Key findings from the CDC data

The CDC’s latest report reveals that every US state now has at least 20% of its adult population classified as obese.

Notably, 23 states have an obesity prevalence exceeding 35%, indicating that one in three adults in these regions could benefit from weight loss treatments.

Obesity is often linked to factors beyond diet, and the CDC emphasizes the urgent need for advanced treatment options.

According to Karen Hacker of the CDC, this data underscores the critical demand for effective obesity prevention and treatment strategies.

In response to the growing need, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have emerged as leaders in the weight loss drug market.

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound have been particularly successful.

Both companies have seen substantial revenue increases over the past year due to the high demand for their weight loss solutions.

Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly

Novo Nordisk is expanding its portfolio with amycretin, a new drug that combines two peptide hormones in a single molecule.

This innovative approach aims to enhance appetite regulation and hunger control, offering a potential alternative to Wegovy.

In response to the high demand and supply constraints, Eli Lilly is investing $1.8 billion to boost its production capabilities for weight loss, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes medications.

The company is focusing on expanding its Kinsale, Ireland facility, with an additional $800 million investment to increase its manufacturing capacity.

UBS now expects the weight loss drug market to grow at a compound annualized rate of 33% and hit $150 billion in sales by 2029 – up from the firm’s earlier forecast of about $125 billion. 

The company has also achieved a major milestone by securing regulatory approval for its weight management drug, Mounjaro, in China. 

Novo Nordisk has also got approval for its weight-loss drug from China.

Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing obesity trend.

Despite current short-term supply issues potentially impacting stock performance, the long-term outlook for these companies remains strong.

Their advancements and expansions in the weight loss sector suggest promising medium-term investment opportunities.

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The Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 18% during its upcoming meeting on Friday, as recent economic data suggests a potential slowdown in inflation and retail demand.

This move would follow a significant rate hike in July and reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures and economic stability.

Inflation trends signal possible pause in monetary tightening

The central bank has been grappling with high inflation, which has proven difficult to control since last year. However, recent figures show a slight deceleration in annual inflation, which fell to 9.05% in August from 9.13% in July.

This decrease marks the first slowdown in inflation this year. Monthly price growth also declined to its lowest level since late 2022, according to data from the Federal Statistics Service and the Economy Ministry.

Despite these signs, inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Russia’s target of 4%.

This persistent inflationary pressure, combined with the impact of government spending on retail demand, could prompt further monetary tightening later in the year.

Analysts weigh potential for further rate hikes

Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate that the central bank will keep the key rate unchanged at 18% to assess the effects of the July rate hike.

Oleg Kuzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital, suggests that a pause in rate hikes would allow the central bank to evaluate the impact of its previous increase.

He also notes that if inflation does not slow sufficiently, additional rate hikes may be necessary later in the year.

At its July meeting, the Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rate by 200 basis points for the first time this year, highlighting concerns about potential stagflation—a combination of high prices and low economic growth.

Since then, the central bank’s rhetoric has shifted towards addressing the overheating economy and observing disinflation trends.

Divergent views on future monetary policy

Despite expectations for the central bank to hold the rate steady, some analysts believe that a rate increase remains a possibility.

Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin has indicated that the bank could consider another rate hike if inflationary pressures persist.

His comments suggest that the central bank is still deliberating on the appropriate response to ongoing economic conditions.

Bloomberg Economics notes that the central bank faces a balancing act between controlling inflation and managing economic activity.

Recent data reveals a decline in business confidence and a slowdown in corporate output expectations, which could influence the central bank’s decision.

However, rising consumer and corporate expectations, a weaker ruble, and increasing corporate credit growth add complexity to the decision-making process.

Household and business expectations influence policy outlook

Household inflation expectations continue to rise, reaching 12.9% last month. Business expectations have also increased, and corporate lending remains robust.

These factors contribute to uncertainty about whether the current key rate has reached its peak or if further hikes are necessary.

The central bank has acknowledged that it will miss its inflation target for the fifth consecutive year. Its revised inflation estimate for this year stands at 6.5%-7%, while the Economy Ministry’s forecast is even higher at 7.3%.

Potential scenarios for upcoming rate decision

Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management, suggests that the central bank’s decision to maintain the rate at 18% could signal readiness for future increases.

He outlines three possible scenarios: maintaining the rate, raising it to 19%, or even 20%. The latter two options are considered less likely but remain part of the discussion.

As the Bank of Russia prepares for its decision, market participants will be closely monitoring the central bank’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing inflation and economic growth.

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The Bank of Russia is fast-tracking its plans for the digital ruble, setting a July 2025 deadline for full integration across the nation’s largest banks.

This move will allow both retail customers and businesses to access the digital ruble, enabling them to open accounts, transfer funds, and make payments with the state-backed currency.

The initiative positions Russia at the forefront of the adoption of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), aligning with a growing trend among nations exploring digital alternatives to cash.

Digital ruble to be adopted by major Russian banks

The Bank of Russia has mandated that the country’s largest banks integrate the digital ruble into their operations by July 2025.

These banks will support services such as account openings, top-ups, and digital ruble transfers within their existing infrastructure.

This development aims to place the digital ruble on equal footing with traditional cash and non-cash transactions, driving widespread adoption.

The digital ruble is part of a global shift toward central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Countries such as the Bahamas and Nigeria have already implemented their versions, offering insights into the benefits and challenges of CBDC adoption.

For Russia, the digital ruble represents a strategic effort to enhance financial inclusion and streamline transactions.

Russia expands digital ruble trials to 9,000 participants

Russia’s journey to a digital ruble began with pilot programs involving 12 banks and 600 participants.

Today, the number of participants has swelled to 9,000, signaling growing confidence in the currency’s security and functionality.

As the Bank of Russia gathers data from these expanded trials, it will fine-tune its plans for the nationwide launch set for mid-2025.

The digital ruble’s introduction could transform Russia’s financial landscape.

By providing a state-backed digital currency, the Bank of Russia aims to reduce transaction costs, improve payment efficiency, and enhance financial inclusion.

Additionally, the digital ruble could give the central bank more control over monetary policy, offering a powerful tool to manage the money supply.

However, challenges remain, including ensuring cybersecurity, building public trust, and seamlessly integrating the digital ruble with existing financial infrastructure.

If successfully implemented, the digital ruble could offer numerous advantages, such as enhanced financial stability and a more resilient payment system.

The Bank of Russia’s July 2025 deadline underscores its commitment to addressing these challenges and delivering a smooth transition to digital currency.

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In a significant move amid Venezuela’s ongoing political crisis, the United States has imposed sanctions on 16 top officials connected to President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.

Among those targeted is Caryslia Rodríguez, President of the Constitutional Chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme Court.

The sanctions are part of the US response to the disputed presidential elections, which many believe were marred by fraud and suppression.

The sanctions aim to pressure the Maduro government, which is accused of undermining free and fair elections.

The US has recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the legitimate winner of the election, a stance that has further escalated tensions between Venezuela and the international community.

Controversy surrounding Venezuela’s election

The election, held over a month ago, has been surrounded by controversy.

Edmundo González, the opposition candidate, claimed victory but was forced to leave Venezuela amid threats and repression.

Maduro’s government has refused to acknowledge his win, leading to widespread condemnation from international observers.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken openly declared support for González, condemning Maduro’s “anti-democratic measures” and signaling the US’s continued commitment to promoting democratic values in Venezuela.

The sanctions aim to reaffirm this stance, applying pressure on Maduro’s government to ensure a fair electoral process.

Sanctioned officials involved in electoral suppression

According to the US Department of the Treasury, the sanctions primarily target senior officials from Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) and Supreme Court.

These individuals are accused of manipulating the election process and altering results.

Additionally, military and intelligence officers involved in acts of intimidation, arbitrary arrests, and media censorship have also been sanctioned.

These measures send a clear message: the US will not tolerate the erosion of democratic principles in Venezuela.

The country’s deteriorating human rights situation under Maduro’s leadership is a central concern for the US and its allies.

Global reactions to this sanction

The international community has responded in a variety of ways.

While the European Union and several Latin American nations have expressed support for the US sanctions, others have criticized them as an overreach into Venezuela’s sovereignty.

González recently met with the Spanish Congress, seeking to solidify international backing for his victory.

The US and its allies appear to be forming a united front, standing against authoritarianism in Venezuela. Additional visa restrictions on Maduro’s allies have further isolated the regime, aiming to cut off critical resources and legitimacy.

The mounting global pressure reflects a deepening crisis in Venezuela, with sanctions now playing a pivotal role in the battle over the country’s democratic future.

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France’s first lady, Brigitte Macron, has won a legal battle against two women who falsely claimed she was transgender.

The Paris court ruling orders them to pay €8,000 (£6,750) in damages to Macron and €5,000 to her brother, Jean-Michel Trogneux.

The case has highlighted the widespread impact of online disinformation, which spread beyond France to the US, and involved conspiracy theories pushed by far-right groups.

This ruling represents a significant stance against the growing problem of fake news and defamatory online content.

Combatting online disinformation

The Paris court’s decision on Thursday represents a significant step in combatting disinformation, especially when it targets high-profile individuals.

The two women involved, Amandine Roy, a self-proclaimed spiritual medium, and Natacha Rey, who calls herself an independent journalist, posted a YouTube video in December 2021 alleging that Brigitte Macron was a man named Jean-Michel.

These false claims gained traction, circulating widely on social media just before the 2022 French presidential election.

Macron, formerly Brigitte Trogneux, filed a libel complaint following the viral video and the rapid spread of baseless accusations.

Posts suggested that she had never existed as a female and was her brother, Jean-Michel, who had changed gender and assumed her identity.

The court ruled that Roy and Rey must pay €8,000 in damages to Macron and an additional €5,000 to Jean-Michel Trogneux. Both women were also given a suspended fine of €500.

False claims extended beyond France

The disinformation campaign did not remain confined to France.

It extended internationally, reaching the US where similar defamatory claims against Macron appeared on YouTube in a now-deleted video ahead of the November midterm elections.

This shows how quickly false information can spread across borders, becoming an issue not only of defamation but also of misinformation impacting international politics.

These tactics of spreading false claims are not isolated to Macron.

Several high-profile women, including former US First Lady Michelle Obama, US vice-president and presidential candidate Kamala Harris, and former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern, have also been subjected to similar falsehoods aimed at their gender or sexuality.

Such targeted disinformation campaigns are often used to mock or discredit their public personas.

Brigitte Macron’s response

Brigitte Macron, 71, did not attend the June trial or the court ruling on Thursday. However, she remains an active figure in public life.

Coincidentally, the same day the court’s ruling came through, she made her debut on Netflix, playing herself in the popular series Emily in Paris.

The show’s star, Lily Collins, revealed that the idea of Macron’s cameo came about when she and the show’s creator, Darren Star, met Macron at the Elysée Palace in December 2022.

While the case underscores the significant legal and social consequences of spreading false information, it also highlights the broader cultural impact of Macron’s public life.

The court ruling may deter similar future disinformation efforts, setting a precedent for holding individuals accountable for defamatory statements spread online.

The outcome of this case serves as a reminder of the legal repercussions that come with spreading unverified and harmful information, particularly online.

The court’s decision to penalize Roy and Rey reflects an effort to curb the spread of defamatory content, especially against public figures.

As digital platforms continue to grow, so does the responsibility to ensure the integrity and accuracy of information shared globally.

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As the US presidential election approaches and the race tightens, business leaders are delaying key decisions until after November, according to organizational consulting firm Korn Ferry.

With the two presidential candidates—former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—offering only broad outlines of their policies, companies are waiting for more specific details before moving forward with critical plans.

Korn Ferry reports that this election uncertainty has led to a decline in mergers over the past two years. Additionally, the US has revised its job creation estimate downward by over 800,000 for July 2024.

Companies are also hesitant to make significant investments or hire new employees while the election outcome remains uncertain.

Alan Guarino, Vice Chairman of Korn Ferry’s CEO and Board Services Practice, noted that while executives are keen to understand the candidates’ positions, they require detailed policy specifics before making strategic decisions.

He said,

Even if the positions don’t make the C-suite happy, they need clarity so they are in a position to make their plans.

Key issues: trade policies, corporate tax rate

Business leaders are particularly interested in policies surrounding trade, corporate tax rates, antitrust regulations, and healthcare costs.

Leaders are keenly aware of the impact of tariffs and embargoes on supply chains, and, with the election coming just as prices are starting to ease for consumers, they want to ensure that those supply chains keep running, regardless of who wins. 

Nels Olson, global leader of government affairs at the firm pointed out that “key issues like this are still to be determined,” highlighting the uncertainty gripping many industries.

The fall in the number of mergers and number of jobs added in July reflects the declining pattern of investment which is a result of high political uncertainty.

Need for confidence in the economy before hiring

Uncertainty is paralyzing business decisions in both the short and long term.

Companies are reluctant to make significant investments or hire new employees while awaiting the outcome of the election.

Jane Edison Stevenson, global vice chair of the board and CEO services practice at Korn Ferry said that companies need confidence in the economy before moving forward.

“After nearly two years preparing for a recession, companies need confidence that the economy is headed in the right direction before they start hiring again,” she says.

Executives are aware that the first year of a new president’s term is often the most significant in terms of policy changes, particularly if the president’s party controls Congress.

Olson notes that this could shape the business environment in 2025, with companies needing to adapt quickly to new policies.

He advises firms to be proactive:

With the different scenarios that can play out, companies have to be ready to promote or defend their positions.

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Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) stock price has gone parabolic this year, making it one of the top-performing companies in the S&P 500 index. It has risen in the last five consecutive months and is sitting at its highest point on record. 

Excluding dividends, IRM has soared by almost 2,000% since going public in early 2000s, beating the S&P 500 index, which has soared by 866% in the same period. Its performance slightly trails that of the Nasdaq 100 index, which has jumped by 2,200% in the same period.

Iron Mountain’s performance has made it a high valuable – and expensive – companies in the industry with a market cap of over $30 billion. 

Data center demand

Iron Mountain’s stock performance is mostly because of its data center business, which has been growing exponentially in the past few years.

The data center sector is growing because of generative AI and cloud computing trends, which are continuing. A good proxy for the data center industry is Nvidia, a technology company whose revenue is growing by triple digits.

Analysts believe that the industry has more growth left. Just last week, we wrote that Apple and Nvidia were considering investing in OpenAi, valuing it at over $100 billion. Now, the company is said to be raising cash at a $150 billion valuation. 

Iron Mountain is an integral part of the AI industry because it is one of the biggest data center companies globally. It offers its centers to companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, IBM, and Salesforce. 

In addition to these services, the company is involved in the Records and Information Management, where it offers solutions like records management, data management, secure shredding, and global digital solutions. 

Iron Mountain also provides solutions like fine art handling and transportation and secure logistics solutions. As a result, according to its website, it serves over 80% of all Fortune 2000 companies. 

Valuation concerns remain

Iron Mountain has become one of the biggest players in the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) business. 

This growth is mostly because of its data center business, which investors believe has more room to grow in the future. 

However, the main concern among most investors is that it is highly overvalued considering that its revenue and profitability growth has not been all that strong.

Iron Mountain made over $4.2 billion in annual revenue in 2019 and $5.48 billion in the last financial year, a 28% increase. It is also a low-margin business. Of the $5.48 billion it made in 2023, the company had a net profit of $184 million.

While the AI industry is growing, analysts don’t expect substantial growth in the coming years. The average revenue guidance for this year is $6.14 billion followed by $6.7 billion in the following year. Its guidance for the year in the last financial results was $6 billion and $6.15 billion.

Double-digit growth for a REIT is a good thing but analysts believe that it does not justify Iron Mountain’s valuation. Data by SeekingAlpha shows that Iron Mountain trades at a hefty valuation multiple compared to the market and its peers.

It has a price-to-earnings ratio of 62 and a forward multiple of 60, higher than the sector medians of 36 and 38, respectively.

Additional data shows that it has an EV to EBITDA of 25 and is trading at a price to free cash flow multiple of 28.

For a REIT, the best multiples are the price-to-funds from operations (P/FFO). It has a trailing and forward P/FFO multiples of 36 and 35, higher than the sector medians.

In contrast, Digital Realty Trust, another large player in the industry has multiples of 24 and 23 while DigitalBridge has 22 and 25, respectively.

To be clear: history suggests that highly valued companies tend to outperform cheap bargains. Also, Iron Mountain has been overvalued for a long time because of the ongoing boom in data consuming industries like cloud computing, AI, and machine learning. 

Iron Mountain stock is also overbought

The weekly chart shows that the Iron Mountain share price has been in a strong bull run for a long time. It has risen in the last 13 of 15 weeks, making it one of the best performing companies in Wall Street.

As a result, the stock is about 36% above the 50-week moving average, meaning that it is not a bargain. It is also highly overbought, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising to the overbought level of 81 while the Stochastic Oscillator being near 100.

Therefore, the IRM stock price will likely continue rising as long as the AI investments are rising. In the future, however, a pullback cannot be ruled out as some of the investors start to take profits. If this happens, the stock will likely retreat and retest the key support at $100.

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The Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 18% during its upcoming meeting on Friday, as recent economic data suggests a potential slowdown in inflation and retail demand.

This move would follow a significant rate hike in July and reflects ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures and economic stability.

Inflation trends signal possible pause in monetary tightening

The central bank has been grappling with high inflation, which has proven difficult to control since last year. However, recent figures show a slight deceleration in annual inflation, which fell to 9.05% in August from 9.13% in July.

This decrease marks the first slowdown in inflation this year. Monthly price growth also declined to its lowest level since late 2022, according to data from the Federal Statistics Service and the Economy Ministry.

Despite these signs, inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Russia’s target of 4%.

This persistent inflationary pressure, combined with the impact of government spending on retail demand, could prompt further monetary tightening later in the year.

Analysts weigh potential for further rate hikes

Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate that the central bank will keep the key rate unchanged at 18% to assess the effects of the July rate hike.

Oleg Kuzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital, suggests that a pause in rate hikes would allow the central bank to evaluate the impact of its previous increase.

He also notes that if inflation does not slow sufficiently, additional rate hikes may be necessary later in the year.

At its July meeting, the Bank of Russia raised the benchmark rate by 200 basis points for the first time this year, highlighting concerns about potential stagflation—a combination of high prices and low economic growth.

Since then, the central bank’s rhetoric has shifted towards addressing the overheating economy and observing disinflation trends.

Divergent views on future monetary policy

Despite expectations for the central bank to hold the rate steady, some analysts believe that a rate increase remains a possibility.

Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin has indicated that the bank could consider another rate hike if inflationary pressures persist.

His comments suggest that the central bank is still deliberating on the appropriate response to ongoing economic conditions.

Bloomberg Economics notes that the central bank faces a balancing act between controlling inflation and managing economic activity.

Recent data reveals a decline in business confidence and a slowdown in corporate output expectations, which could influence the central bank’s decision.

However, rising consumer and corporate expectations, a weaker ruble, and increasing corporate credit growth add complexity to the decision-making process.

Household and business expectations influence policy outlook

Household inflation expectations continue to rise, reaching 12.9% last month. Business expectations have also increased, and corporate lending remains robust.

These factors contribute to uncertainty about whether the current key rate has reached its peak or if further hikes are necessary.

The central bank has acknowledged that it will miss its inflation target for the fifth consecutive year. Its revised inflation estimate for this year stands at 6.5%-7%, while the Economy Ministry’s forecast is even higher at 7.3%.

Potential scenarios for upcoming rate decision

Dmitry Polevoy, investment director at Astra Asset Management, suggests that the central bank’s decision to maintain the rate at 18% could signal readiness for future increases.

He outlines three possible scenarios: maintaining the rate, raising it to 19%, or even 20%. The latter two options are considered less likely but remain part of the discussion.

As the Bank of Russia prepares for its decision, market participants will be closely monitoring the central bank’s stance on interest rates and its approach to managing inflation and economic growth.

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Cryptocurrency prices moved sideways this week even after the United States published encouraging consumer inflation data. Bitcoin was stuck below $60,000 while Ethereum moved slightly below $60,000. The total valuation of all cryptocurrencies remained at $2.04 trillion while the crypto fear and greed index moved to the fear zone of 37.

The main catalyst for digital coins this week was the US inflation data, which showed that the headline CPI dropped to 2.6% in August, its lowest level in over two years. This report, which came after the US released weak jobs numbers, signaled that the Fed will start cutting rates next week.

A key risk to have in mind is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also have a meeting next week, meaning that the Japanese yen carry trade unwind could come back. Last month, stocks and cryptocurrencies plunged after the BoJ hiked rates, narrowing the spread between US and Japanese rates.  This article provides a forecast of top cryptocurrencies like Quant (QNT), Mantra (OM), and Ripple (XRP).

Quant price forecast

Quant is a top cryptocurrency in the tokenization industry. Its overledger technology helps companies like banks and others in the financial services industry build tokenized solutions. 

The QNT token was in the spotlight this week, bouncing back to its highest point since July 18. It has soared by over 54% from its lowest level this year, giving it a market cap of $933 million and making it one of the biggest coins in the industry.

Quant token jumped amid rising social media and wallet activity in the network. On the daily chart, it has risen from a low of $50.13 to almost $80. It has also formed a double-bottom chart pattern, which is a popular bullish sign.

The coin has also jumped above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has tilted upwards. Therefore, Quant will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at $83.20, its lowest swing in October last year. 

The risk for Quant is that, as shown below, the number of smart money holders has been in a strong downtrend. It has 12 smart money holders, down from over 20 earlier this year. Also, the balance held by smart money has moved from over 50k to less than 7k.

Mantra price analysis

Mantra, another top player in the Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization, has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in the industry. It has jumped by over 6,200% from its lowest point in 2023.

This rally has happened because of the ongoing demand for tokenization assets and its strong staking yield, which stands at over 21%. Unlike other tokens, Mantra has completed its token unlocks, meaning that there will be no significant dilutions in the future.

On the daily chart, the OM token formed a bottom at $0.8541 recently and formed a triple-bottom there. In most periods, a triple-bottom is one of the most bullish signs in the market. It has moved above its neckline at $1.068, its highest swing on August 24.

Mantra’s 25-day and 50-day moving averages have formed a bullish crossover. It has also retested the upper side of the ascending channel shown in green while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising.

Therefore, Mantra’s outlook is extremely bullish, with the next point to watch being its all-time high at $1.4, which is about 22.5% above the current level. 

Ripple XRP price analysis

Ripple’s XRP price has moved sideways in the past few weeks, in sync with other cryptocurrencies. This week, the token rose after Grayscale launched the XRP Trust, as it tests waters on whether a Ripple ETF will work. Odds are that a Ripple ETF will not be popular, especially after the disappointing performance of Ethereum funds. 

The other potential catalyst for XRP is the upcoming launch of Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, which will be regulated and backed 1:1 on the US dollar. 

Ripple hopes that the token will become as popular as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), which are making their developers billions of dollars. However, the risk is that the industry is saturated, with Tether having the biggest market share. 

On the daily chart, the XRP token is hovering at the 50-day and 25-day moving averages as it attempts to establish direction. It remains above the key support level at $0.4300, its lowest swing in April this year.

It is also hovering slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the token will likely remain in this range for a while as bulls wait for the next catalyst. 

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Ethereum price has remained in a strong bear market this month amid negative headlines from the biggest chain in the crypto industry. ETH was trading at $2,360 on Friday, down by over 42% from its highest point this year. It is also hovering near its lowest point since February this year. 

Ethereum ETF outflows

The first big headline is that Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are not doing well two months after launch. 

Data compiled by SosoValue shows that these funds have had cumulative outflows of over $582 million since launch. This week, they have had outflows in the last two consecutive days, with the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) being the most affected. 

ETHE has over $4.1 billion in assets, down from over $10 billion when it was launched. It is followed by the Grayscale Mini Ethereum Fund (ETH), which has over $889 million in assets because of its cheaper expense ratio. The Blackrock Ethereum ETF (ETHA) has $800 million while Fidelity Ethereum ETF (FETH) has $323 million.

There are two main reasons why Ethereum ETFs are not seeing traction among investors. First, they are relatively expensive to have. Grayscale’s ETHE has an expense ratio of 2.5%, which is one of the biggest in the ETF industry. Its ETH ETF, however, has a lower expense ratio of 0.15%, which explains why it has become more popular among investors.

Second, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a feature known as staking, where users deposit their coins and earn monthly rewards. Data by StakingRewards shows that Ethereum has a staking reward of 3.22%.

Therefore, investors who allocate their cash to Ethereum will do much better than those who buy ETFs. A 3.22% annual return means that an investor with $10,000 invested in Ether can expect to make $322, which is a great return.

However, it is also worth noting that the amount of staked Ethereum has been in a downward trend in the past few weeks, mostly because of the falling prices. Data shows that over 298k ETH worth over $703 million have left staking pools.

Ethereum staking net flows

Ethereum formed a death cross

The other reason why the ETH price has plunged is that the coin has formed a death cross chart pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bearish crossover pattern.

In most periods, a death cross is one of the most popular bearish patterns in the financial market. It often leads to a significant drop of an asset. Indeed, Ether has already fallen by over 15% since this cross happened. 

Ethereum also formed a double-top chart pattern whose neckline was at $2,815, its lowest level on May 1. The double-top is another highly popular bearish sign in the market. ETH has also crashed below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Therefore, the ETH token will likely remain under pressure in the coming weeks, especially if it drops below the key support at $2,150, its lowest point this month. 

Ethereum price chart

Insider sales are rising

The other main reason why Ethereum price has plunged is that insiders have been selling ETH tokens aggressively.

Vitalik Buterin, the network’s creator, has been on a selling spree. He has sold tokens worth almost $10 million in the past few weeks. 

Similarly, the Ethereum Foundation has been in a strong selling spree as well. In most cases, investors often sell assets when insiders are selling because of the view that they know something that the broader market does not know.

At the same time, the futures open interest has been in a strong downward trend in the past few weeks. It had an open interest of over $10 billion on Thursday, down by over $17 billion earlier this year. This is a sign of waning demand among investors.

On the positive side, there are signs that the number of Ethereum tokens in exchanges has been in a downward trend. They stand at over 22.61 million, according to data by Nansen. This is a 0.86% drop from the same period last week. 

Competition rising

Gone are the days when Ethereum was the only game in town. While it has the biggest market share in key areas, other networks are catching up.

Most recently, Justin Sun’s Tron launched SunPump, whose crypto tokens have a market cap of over $608 million. Sun, the biggest DEX on Tron has seen a strong increase in activity. 

Other networks are gaining market share. Base, the layer-2 network launched by Conbase, has attracted millions of wallets from around the world. Other fast-growing Ethereum competitors are Solana and Arbitrum. Solana has become a key player in the DePin industry.

This competition has drawn more investors to these projects. For example, Tron was trading at $0.15, a few points below its all-time high. At the same time, the volume of Ethereum NFTs has dropped sharply in the past few months.

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