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Futu Holdings (NASDAQ: FUTU) stock price has gone parabolic, rising for three straight weeks, reaching a high of $102.97, its highest point since September 2021.

It has soared by over 75% this year, making it one of the best-performing companies in Wall Street.

Futu and China comeback

Futu Holdings’ share price has done well in the past few days, helped by the recent actions by the Chinese and American officials.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates, citing concerns about the labor market and hopes that inflation was moving to the 2% target rate.

The Fed decision marked a major shift among global central banks as they started to abandon their post-Covid restrictions. 

In most cases, global stocks do well when the Fed and other central banks are cutting interest rates as we saw during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Futu shares have also surged because of Beijing’s recent actions, which have propelled Chinese stocks to their highest levels this year.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) decided to cut interest rates and also reduce its reserve requirements, a move that will unlock over $100 billion in funds.

It is also encouraging pension funds and other companies to increase their stock purchases.

Meanwhile, China’s politburo led to more stimulus by Beijing in its attempt to engineer an economic boom. Altogether, the Hang Seng index rose to $21,482, a 45% increase from the lowest level this year

Most Chinese technology companies like PDD Holdings, Nio, and Alibaba have also surged hard in the past few days.

This also explains why the Futu share price has gone parabolic.

Futu’s growth is continuing

Futu Holdings is a company that most Americans have never heard about.

Yet, it is one of the biggest fintech firms in China valued at over $14 billion.

It is a company similar to Robinhood in that it helps people invest in Chinese and global stocks, especially American ones.

It runs applications like Futubull and MooMoo.

Futubull is an online brokerage and wealth management tool that lets people buy assets like stocks and options.

It also has a platform where people can grow their wealth well.

Futubull is mostly used by people in China. 

Moomoo, on the other hand, is an application similar to Futubull, with the only difference being that it is designed for overseas customers.

It lets these customers buy and trade stocks, options, ETFs, and ADRs. 

Futu, therefore, has a business model similar to that of Robinhood, an online brokerage that has revolutionised the US industry by introducing commission-free trades. 

It has also benefited from the ongoing demand for American stocks as Chinese ones crashed in the past few months.

Many people in China also want an exposure to well-known American brands like Nvidia and Amazon.

Futu’s products have become highly popular in China and other countries, which explains why its revenues have surged recently.

Its annual revenue has risen from $124 million in 2019 to over $1.165 billion in the last financial year. 

Futu makes its money in two main ways: interest rates and capital markets. In interest, it invests its cash in low-cost government bonds.

It also earns money from brokerage commissions. 

Earnings download

Futu Holdings released relatively encouraging financial results in August.

The number of paying clients rose by 28% in the second quarter to 2.04 million, while those registered in its platforms rose by 19% to 4.04 million.

Additionally, the total amount of client assets in Futu jumped by 24.3% to over HK579 billion, equivalent to over $72 billion. Most importantly, the volume of transactions in the platforms surged by 69% to H$1.62 trillion. 

Therefore, these numbers led to higher revenues, which rose by 25.9% to $400 million while its net income rose to $154 million, meaning that Futu is a high-margin company. 

Futu is not followed closely by American analysts.

Those analysts expect its revenue to grow by 12.9% this year to $1.45 billion, followed by 12% to $1.62 billion.

Futu is relatively undervalued company, likely because of its China-exposure risks.

Its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.2, much lower than Robinhood’s 33. 

The other big risk is that the industry is highly competitive, with most of this competition coming from WeBull, one of the most popular companies in the industry.

Read more: Here’s why Futu, AMD, and LiveRamp stocks are rising

Futu Holdings stock price analysis

FUTU chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the Futu share price made a strong bullish comeback in the past few days.

It jumped above the upper side of the ascending red channel. 

The stock has also moved above the 50-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) while the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have drifted upwards.

Therefore, Futu Holdings seems like a cheap contrarian company to invest in as global stocks continues their recovery.

If this happens, the next point to watch will be at $100.

The post Futu Holdings stock: is it safe to buy China’s Robinhood? appeared first on Invezz

Robinhood has officially announced the expansion of its cryptocurrency services in the European Union, allowing customers to transfer cryptocurrencies in and out of its app.

This move marks a significant step in the company’s international growth strategy, as it offers European users the ability to self-custody their digital assets.

Robinhood’s decision to broaden its product capabilities aligns with the growing demand for digital currency services across Europe, where favourable regulations, such as the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) law, are being adopted.

This development comes at a time when US crypto firms are facing increasing scrutiny from regulators at home.

Robinhood expands crypto capabilities in Europe

Robinhood’s new feature allows EU users to deposit and withdraw over 20 digital currencies, including popular tokens such as bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), and solana (SOL).

The platform had previously restricted users from transferring their cryptocurrencies out of the app, limiting the scope of its crypto trading services.

With this latest feature, European users can now fully control their digital assets by transferring them to self-custodial wallets.

This expansion reflects the growing interest in decentralised finance (DeFi) solutions across the continent, particularly as the MiCA regulation creates a more unified regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry in the EU’s 27 member states.

The decision to introduce these self-custody capabilities follows Robinhood’s belief in the EU’s market potential for digital currencies.

According to Johann Kerbrat, Robinhood’s crypto general manager, the EU market is just as large as the US in terms of total addressable market size.

Kerbrat pointed to the MiCA regulation as a critical factor, suggesting that the EU’s consistent regulatory framework will be a game changer for the digital currency sector, making it an attractive market for crypto firms.

Robinhood’s $200 million Bitstamp acquisition set to boost international presence by 2025

Robinhood’s acquisition of Luxembourg-based crypto exchange Bitstamp, valued at $200 million, further underscores its commitment to expanding internationally.

Bitstamp, which holds over 50 licenses and registrations globally, will provide Robinhood with access to additional markets and regulatory permissions, including in key regions like Singapore, the UK, and across the EU.

The Bitstamp deal, expected to close by 2025, will not only help Robinhood enter new territories but also diversify its offerings by catering to institutional investors.

Bitstamp’s “crypto-as-a-service” solution is particularly geared towards banks and financial institutions looking to integrate crypto capabilities into their existing services.

Robinhood’s global push amid US regulatory headwinds

While Robinhood is scaling its operations in Europe, the company faces significant challenges in the US, where regulatory authorities like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are intensifying their scrutiny of the crypto sector.

Several US-based crypto companies, including Coinbase and Binance, are currently battling lawsuits from the SEC over allegations of trading unregistered securities.

Robinhood, which is regulated by both the SEC and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), has expressed frustration over the US regulatory landscape, stating that the “regulation by enforcement” approach creates uncertainty in the market.

Currently, Robinhood’s expanded crypto services are only available to EU customers, with the UK still awaiting access.

Despite launching its stock trading service in the UK last November, Robinhood has yet to offer cryptocurrency trading or self-custody options to British users.

With the Bitstamp acquisition and continued growth in Europe, it is likely that UK customers could see expanded crypto services in the near future.

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US President Joe Biden has approved a significant $567 million military assistance package for Taiwan, a move aimed at bolstering the island’s defense capabilities as tensions between China and Taiwan escalate.

The package, which includes defense articles, services, and military education, comes at a critical time when Taiwan faces growing pressure from Beijing.u

Although Taiwan does not have formal diplomatic ties with the US, Washington remains its most important ally and arms supplier.

China continues to demand that the US halt arms sales to Taiwan, a demand that the US routinely disregards.

Taiwan’s delayed arms deliveries continue

The military aid announced on Sunday represents a continuation of the US policy of supporting Taiwan’s self-defense. In recent months, Taiwan has faced delays in arms deliveries, including crucial upgrades for its F-14 fighter jets.

These delays have raised concerns about Taiwan’s ability to effectively deter potential aggression from China.

The new package of defense articles is expected to help close some of these gaps and enhance Taiwan’s military readiness in the face of rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

China’s response

Beijing’s response to the continued US-Taiwan military cooperation remains unequivocal: China considers Taiwan to be its territory and has ramped up military and political pressure on the island in recent years.

The Chinese government views the US arms sales to Taiwan as a violation of its sovereignty, a claim that Washington and Taipei reject.

With tensions running high, China is expected to issue further diplomatic protests against the recent US military assistance, though it is unlikely to deter Washington from continuing its support for Taiwan.

US-Taiwan relations

Despite the lack of formal diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the US, the two sides have maintained a close security partnership.

The $567 million aid package highlights the growing strategic importance the US places on Taiwan in the broader context of the Indo-Pacific region.

In addition to military support, the US has also been expanding its economic and diplomatic engagement with Taiwan, further solidifying its role as a key partner in the region.

Biden’s aid packages for Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel

Biden’s approval of the defense package for Taiwan is part of a broader strategy to support allies in key regions around the world.

In April, he signed a bill providing billions of dollars in aid not just to Taiwan but also to Ukraine, as it continues its war with Russia, and to Israel.

This multi-faceted approach underscores the US’s commitment to maintaining its influence and ensuring the security of its partners in various global hotspots.

The US’s latest move to provide military aid to Taiwan reflects its ongoing commitment to the island’s defense despite increasing opposition from China.

The aid package is likely to help Taiwan address some of its critical defense needs in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain as tensions with China continue to simmer.

As Taiwan continues to build up its military capacity, the risk of confrontation in the region remains a growing concern for all parties involved.

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Pursuit of windfall profits by big Western supermarkets on the back of low wholesale prices is causing widespread labour exploitation in the shrimp aquaculture industries of Vietnam, Indonesia, and India, a new investigation published by AP, has found.

The investigation conducted by an alliance of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and the findings provided to the publication, focussed on the three countries which are among the largest producers of shrimp.

The analysis reveals that producers supplying shrimp to top global markets—the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan—have seen earnings drop by as much as 60% from pre-pandemic levels.

The drive to meet supermarket pricing demands has forced producers to cut costs, primarily through labor, resulting in unpaid overtime, wage insecurity, and work that does not meet minimum wage standards.

Report paints a stark picture of shrimp workers

Over 500 interviews were conducted with shrimp workers, supplemented by data from secondary sources, to paint a stark picture of the realities faced by laborers in these countries.

In Vietnam, the report highlights workers peeling and processing shrimp for six or seven days a week in freezing conditions to preserve product quality.

Women, who comprise about 80% of the workforce, are particularly affected. Many of them work long hours—rising as early as 4 am and returning home after 6 pm.

Pregnant women and new mothers are permitted to stop one hour earlier, but conditions remain gruelling.

In India, shrimp workers face even more hazardous conditions.

Researchers from the Corporate Accountability Lab found that the use of highly salinated water, combined with chemicals and toxic algae from hatcheries, contaminates the surrounding environment.

Child labor was also uncovered in some areas, with girls as young as 14 recruited for peeling shrimp.

Unpaid labor is widespread, and many workers are paid below minimum wage, face wage deductions, and work overtime without compensation.

Indonesia presents a similar situation, with wages that have fallen sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Shrimp workers, who typically earn $160 per month—below the country’s minimum wage in most regions—are often required to work 12-hour days just to meet basic production targets.

How did supermarkets respond to the investigation?

Some of the world’s largest supermarket chains have been linked to the facilities highlighted in the report, including US retail giants Target, Walmart, and Costco, as well as Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Aldi, and Co-op in Europe.

While Switzerland’s Co-op stated that it maintains a “zero tolerance” policy for labor violations, claiming its producers are paid fair prices, other supermarkets issued more guarded responses.

Germany’s Aldi pointed to independent certification schemes used to ensure responsible sourcing of farmed shrimp, but it did not specifically address pricing practices.

Sainsbury’s deferred to the British Retail Consortium, an industry group, which reaffirmed its members’ commitment to fair pricing and ethical sourcing.

The consortium noted that the welfare of workers in global supply chains is central to purchasing practices.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, however, strongly contested the findings, calling them “unfounded and misleading.”

It emphasized that government policies are in place to protect workers and ensure ethical practices.

Shrimp certification and the hidden labor exploitation model

A critical finding of the report was the role middlemen play in obscuring the source of shrimp, allowing Western supermarkets to maintain ethical commitments without necessarily adhering to them.

According to the report, only about 1,000 of the 2 million shrimp farms in Vietnam, Indonesia, and India are certified by recognized standards such as the Aquaculture Stewardship Council or Best Aquaculture Practices ecolabel.

Given this disparity, it is impossible for certified farms to supply enough shrimp to meet the demand of all the supermarkets claiming to purchase only ethically sourced shrimp.

This gap in certification allows labor exploitation to persist in many parts of the industry.

Can policy changes help improve labor conditions?

According to Katrin Nakamura, who authored the regional report for Sustainability Incubator, Western governments could take more aggressive steps to hold retailers accountable.

Rather than imposing tariffs on suppliers, existing antitrust laws could be used to ensure fair pricing that does not place undue pressure on producers.

She argues that such changes could protect workers while still allowing for competitive pricing for consumers.

In July 2024, the European Union adopted a directive requiring companies to address human rights and environmental issues in their supply chains.

Furthermore, officials from Indonesia and Vietnam have engaged with the report’s authors to explore potential solutions.

The report concludes by noting that the labor exploitation in the shrimp industry is not confined to specific companies or countries.

Nakamura said:

It is the result of a hidden business model that exploits people for profit.

Improving labor conditions would not necessarily raise prices for consumers but would likely reduce supermarket profit margins, she added.

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Billionaire Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance Holdings Ltd., made his first public statement over the weekend after being released from US custody.

In a post shared on social media platform X, Zhao reiterated his commitment to investing in blockchain, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, emphasizing his long-term vision centered on impact rather than financial returns.

“Focused on impact, not returns,” Zhao says

Zhao, in his post, conveyed optimism about the future, writing, “There are always more opportunities in the future than there were in the past.”

He acknowledged that many people might have questions but said he would take time to reflect before determining his next steps.

“Let me chill for a bit. Then figure out the next steps,” he added, hinting at upcoming plans.

He expressed gratitude for the support he received during his time in custody, noting that it helped him through some of his darkest moments.

Among the updates Zhao shared was his ongoing work on Giggle Academy, a nonprofit online education platform.

He revealed that this initiative will be a major focus in the years to come and highlighted his intentions to dedicate more resources to charitable work and education.

Binance continues to thrive without Zhao

Zhao also reflected on Binance’s current standing, stating that the exchange is performing well even without his direct involvement.

“Oh, @binance seems to be doing well without me back-seat-driving, which is excellent. Every founder’s dream!” he wrote, expressing satisfaction with the company’s ongoing operations.

Binance, the largest digital-asset exchange globally, plays a pivotal role in the trading of cryptocurrencies and related derivatives.

The platform continues to face scrutiny and regulatory oversight, particularly from US authorities.

Legal troubles and $4.3 billion penalty

In November, Binance faced a significant setback after being hit with a $4.3 billion fine as part of a plea agreement to settle US charges regarding regulatory failures that allowed illicit actors, including criminals and terrorist organizations, to use the platform.

Zhao personally agreed to pay a $50 million fine and served four months in custody before his release on September 27 from a correctional facility in California.

Under the terms of the plea deal, Zhao stepped down as Binance’s CEO, handing over leadership to Richard Teng.

The platform now faces years of compliance monitoring by both the US Department of Justice and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a division of the US Treasury.

In addition to his technological investments, Zhao shared plans to focus more on charitable efforts.

He mentioned that he is still in the process of writing a book, which is two-thirds completed, describing the project as more demanding than he initially expected but something he is determined to finish.

With an estimated net worth exceeding $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Zhao ranks among the wealthiest individuals globally, and likely the richest person to have served time in a US correctional facility.

“See you at the conferences”

Despite stepping away from the helm of Binance, Zhao’s influence in the tech and blockchain sectors remains substantial.

He concluded his post with a hint of his future engagement in the industry, stating, “Stay tuned. See you at the conferences.”

As he charts a new course with Giggle Academy and continues to invest in emerging technologies, Zhao’s next steps will be closely watched by the crypto world and beyond.

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled by more than 4% on Monday, driven by a combination of underwhelming industrial production figures and the market’s reaction to the election of new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The steep decline followed the release of mixed economic data, including a 2.8% increase in August retail sales, which slightly surpassed expectations.

Investors were also responding to the political shift, as Ishiba’s victory reshaped the outlook for Japan’s monetary policy, raising concerns about potential interest rate hikes and their impact on the yen and export-heavy sectors.

Nikkei drops 4% as retail sales rise and industrial output slumps

The Nikkei’s 4% drop occurred despite positive retail sales data, which grew by 2.8% in August compared to the same period last year, beating the expected rise of 2.3%.

The optimism was overshadowed by a sharper-than-expected decline in industrial production, which fell by 4.9% year on year in August.

This marks a notable deterioration from the 0.4% decline recorded in July.

The combination of these figures has left investors uncertain about the broader trajectory of Japan’s economy, with the prospect of increased interest rates under Ishiba’s leadership adding further volatility.

August retail sales rise 2.8%

Japan’s retail sales offered a glimmer of hope with a 2.8% year-on-year increase in August, surpassing estimates and continuing an upward trend from July’s 2.7% growth.

Nevertheless, the industrial production sector saw a sharp decline of 4.9%, significantly worse than the previous month’s 0.4% drop.

The mixed economic signals have made it difficult for investors to gauge the strength of Japan’s recovery, especially as industrial activity struggles to regain momentum.

Incoming PM Shigeru Ishiba raises interest rate hike concerns

The election of Shigeru Ishiba as Japan’s new prime minister has sparked concerns about potential changes to the country’s monetary policy.

Ishiba’s appointment, following a close contest with Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, could see the Bank of Japan (BOJ) face fewer political obstacles in raising interest rates.

A stronger yen, typically resulting from higher rates, would put additional pressure on Japan’s export-heavy economy, making Japanese goods less competitive in global markets.

Weak yen, strong Chinese market pressure Japan’s economy

Adding to Japan’s challenges, the yen has experienced heightened volatility since Ishiba’s election victory, weakening against the dollar before strengthening after his win.

A strong yen poses challenges for Japan’s exporters, already under pressure from declining industrial production.

Meanwhile, China’s surging stock market—fuelled by stimulus measures—has further exacerbated the situation, putting Japan in an increasingly precarious position as it balances domestic economic challenges with external competition.

China’s stimulus lifts markets, pressures Japan’s Nikkei

While Japan’s Nikkei slumped, China’s CSI 300 saw gains of over 6%, buoyed by the country’s stimulus measures and a better-than-expected PMI reading.

China’s central bank has introduced several policies aimed at reviving its economy, including cutting interest rates and lowering reserve requirements for banks.

The resulting surge in Chinese markets has placed further strain on Japan, as investors shift their attention to the growth potential in China, creating an unfavourable comparison for the Japanese market.

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Greece is poised to sell a 10% stake in the National Bank of Greece (NBG) as it continues its broader privatization efforts, which have seen the state reduce its holdings in several major banks over the past year.

The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) announced the price range for the sale on Monday, setting it between €7.30 and €7.95 per share.

Potential to raise up to €727 million

At the upper end of the pricing range, which is slightly higher than last Friday’s closing price of €7.84, Greece could generate up to €727.2 million ($812 million) from the sale, according to a report in Bloomberg.

The books for the transaction are expected to close on Wednesday at 2 pm London time.

This marks a significant step in the country’s banking sector reform, with the Greek government having fully exited other major lenders such as Eurobank Ergasias Services and Holdings, Alpha Bank, and Piraeus Bank in recent months.

While Greece is reducing its stake in NBG, it will retain an 8.4% holding in the bank.

Privatization marks continued economic recovery

This sale comes on the heels of a 22% stake sale in National Bank by the HFSF in November, which raised €1.06 billion.

Greece’s economy has been on an upward trajectory, outperforming many of its European counterparts.

The country regained its investment-grade status last year, a notable achievement after losing it during the 2010 debt crisis.

The non-performing loan ratio in Greek banks has also significantly improved, aligning more closely with European averages.

Another sign of Greece’s return to economic stability is the reintroduction of dividend payments by Greek banks this year, the first time since 2008 that they have been permitted to do so.

European markets open lower amid economic uncertainty

European shares began the week on a cautious note, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index falling 0.1% to 527.47 points by early trading on Monday.

Despite this dip, the index is on track for a third consecutive month of gains, its longest winning streak in seven months.

A stronger oil sector helped mitigate some of the losses, as oil prices rose due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also keeping a close eye on a series of upcoming economic reports, including Germany’s preliminary inflation data for September and similar figures from Italy, as well as Britain’s second-quarter GDP results.

ECB president Christine Lagarde’s comments awaited

Market participants are also awaiting a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, scheduled for later in the day, which could provide insights into the bank’s policy outlook amid the ongoing economic challenges in the region.

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China’s focus on rejuvenating its stock market is seen as a critical move to break the cycle of declining investments and consumption, says China Securities Journal.

In an editorial published Monday, the China Securities Journal underscored that restoring investor confidence and reviving the stock market are essential steps for stabilizing China’s economy.

By addressing market stagnation, the nation aims to reverse a cycle that has hampered both investments and consumer spending, further affecting broader economic recovery.

Stimulus measures propel China’s stock market surge

Last week, Chinese stocks saw their most significant surge since 2008, fueled by the government’s introduction of a comprehensive stimulus package.

Among the measures were interest rate cuts and a substantial $114 billion fund dedicated to boosting equity markets.

“The capital market is not only a ‘barometer’ of the macro economy but also a ‘thermometer’ of investor sentiment,” stated the editorial, pointing to the intertwined relationship between market health and investor outlook.

Revitalizing the stock market, according to the journal, is a critical step in bolstering investor confidence and improving the country’s economic outlook.

Long-standing market underperformanceChina’s stock market has lagged behind global markets in recent years, weighed down by various economic pressures, including a property sector in crisis, weak domestic consumption, and geopolitical tensions.

The China Securities Journal emphasized the importance of breaking this cycle: “Investors worried about internal and external risks, resulting in stock market sluggishness, which in turn sapped investor confidence in a negative loop.”

This downward spiral has made it difficult for private equity investors to exit, further stifling economic activity.

Looking ahead, the newspaper anticipates more policy announcements that will cement investor confidence and aid in stabilizing household finances, ultimately contributing to economic recovery.

As these measures take effect, they are expected to rejuvenate the broader economy and help reverse the negative trends seen in the stock market.

China’s manufacturing sector faces ongoing struggles

Despite these efforts, recent data shows that China’s economic challenges persist.

Factory activity contracted for the fifth consecutive month in September, while the services sector also recorded a sharp slowdown.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September rose slightly to 49.8 from 49.1 in August, still below the critical 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

However, the figure did exceed forecasts of 49.5, marking the highest PMI reading in five months.

Aggressive stimulus aims to hit growth targets

In response to these struggles, Beijing has rolled out its most aggressive stimulus measures since the pandemic, which have already yielded impressive results in the stock market.

Last week’s rally marked the best performance for Chinese equities in nearly 16 years, and the momentum continued into Monday, with markets extending their gains.

As China continues to implement additional policy support, all eyes will be on whether these efforts can generate enough momentum to achieve its 2024 growth targets in the final quarter of the year.

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Oil prices climbed on Monday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised fears of potential supply disruptions.

The rise follows Israel’s intensified military actions against Iranian-backed groups, amplifying concerns about the region’s key role in global oil production.

By early Monday, Brent crude futures for November delivery increased by 51 cents, or 0.71%, reaching $72.49 per barrel.

The December contract, which will soon take over as the more active one, saw a similar rise of 50 cents, bringing it to $72.04 per barrel.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 43 cents, or 0.63%, trading at $68.61 per barrel.

The upward movement in prices comes after last week’s declines, during which Brent fell by 3% and WTI by 5%.

The declines were largely driven by concerns about weakening demand, despite China’s recent fiscal stimulus efforts.

China, as the world’s second-largest economy and top oil importer, had introduced measures aimed at restoring confidence, but these failed to significantly lift market sentiment.

Middle East conflict heightens supply concerns

Monday’s rebound in oil prices was largely attributed to fears that the conflict in the Middle East could escalate further, potentially affecting oil supplies.

Israel has ramped up its attacks on Hezbollah and Houthi forces, both of which are backed by Iran—a major oil producer and influential member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

“Investors are closely watching the situation in the Middle East,” analysts said, noting that any disruption in production or exports from the region could have significant repercussions on global oil markets.

OPEC+ supply cuts and market outlook

Compounding the supply concerns is the scheduled expiration of OPEC+’s voluntary supply cuts on December 1.

Analysts have suggested that WTI crude could test its 2021 lows, potentially falling to the $61 to $62 per barrel range if demand remains weak and production constraints are lifted.

“Despite recent policy shifts in China, it’s uncertain whether this will significantly boost fuel demand, particularly given the country’s rapid progress in transitioning to electric and decarbonized transport,” said Vandana Sycamore, an oil market analyst.

All eyes on US Federal Reserve and economic data

Later this week, traders and investors will be closely watching remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for hints about the pace of future monetary easing.

In addition, seven other Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, providing further insight into the central bank’s strategy. Upcoming data on job openings, private hiring, and surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on manufacturing and services will also be pivotal in shaping market sentiment.

With the Federal Reserve and other central banks likely to ease policy, some analysts believe an economic recovery may be imminent.

“How well demand responds to lower interest rates, and how much China’s oil demand rebounds after its major stimulus measures, will ultimately determine the direction of the oil market going forward,” said Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova, as quoted by Reuters.

As the Middle East situation continues to unfold and the global economy reacts to monetary policies, oil markets are expected to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks.

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The UK’s economic growth for the second quarter of 2024 has been revised down to 0.5%, according to updated figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This marks a slight drop from the earlier estimate of 0.6% growth, released in the preliminary data.

The revised figure indicates that the economy expanded at a slower pace than initially projected.

Economists surprised by the revision

Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated that the preliminary figure would remain unchanged in Monday’s revised data.

The 0.5% growth rate, while still positive, suggests that the UK economy faced some headwinds during the second quarter.

This comes amid global economic uncertainties, including inflationary pressures and fluctuating consumer demand, which have likely impacted overall output.

Signs of continued economic challenges

While the UK economy has been showing signs of resilience, the lower growth rate for the second quarter may indicate that the pace of recovery could be slower than expected in the near term.

The figures from the ONS offer insights into the challenges that the economy continues to face, despite some positive indicators earlier in the year.

Economists and policymakers will now be closely watching upcoming economic data to assess whether the slowdown will persist into the third quarter, especially as inflation and interest rates continue to shape the economic landscape.

(This is a developing story.)

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