Author

admin

Browsing

Sensex and Nifty50 traded higher on Thursday, tracking gains in other Asian markets.

Markets were up today after the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting raised expectations of further interest rate cuts by the central bank. 

For Indian markets, more US rate cuts would mean more foreign inflows into emerging markets. 

At the time of writing, the BSE Sensex was up 139.71 points, while the Nifty50 index rose 0.3% from the previous close. 

Tata Group Companies rise

Shares of most Tata Group Companies rose on Thursday after the demise of  Chairman Emeritus of Tata Sons, Ratan Tata.

Shares of Tata Elxsi rose more than 3% on Thursday, while the stock of Indian Hotels Company increased 2%. 

Shares of Tata Steel were also up 1% from the previous close. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) also gained 0.2%. TCS has cancelled its July-September earnings press conference, which was scheduled for Thursday. 

Additionally, shares of Tata Chemicals surged more than 4%. The stock has gained nearly 13% in the last 12 months. 

However, shares of Tata Motors were down nearly 2% from the previous close. 

Share of power companies rise

Share of power companies rose on Thursday with NTPC Ltd and Power Grid Corp rising more than 2%. 

The stock of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency also rose 1% as the company is scheduled to announce its second quarter earnings on Thursday. 

The Nifty Energy index rose 1% on Thursday as well, while the stock of Tata Power gained over 2%. 

Star Health shares slump after data leak

Shares of Star Health and Allied Insurnc Cmpny slipped more than 2% after the company suffered a massive data leak. 

Sensitive information of over 30 million customers were allegedly exposed by hackers. 

The hackers claim to have accessed and leaked sensitive details, including customer names, policy numbers, mobile numbers, PAN numbers, addresses, policyholders’ claims information, and even medical reports, according to a CNBC report. 

Moreover, the hackers have made serious allegations, claiming that Amarjeet Khanuja, Star Health’s Chief Information Security Officer (CISO), sold the leaked data to them, according to the report.

Shares of oil and gas companies surge

Upstream oil companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India rose sharply on Thursday. 

Oil prices rose on Thursday as expectations of more US rate cuts boosted sentiments. 

The stock of ONGC rose 1%, while Oil India’s shares jumped 2% as higher oil prices increase the profitability of these companies. 

Meanwhile, downstream oil marketing companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd and Indian Oil Corporation also gained. 

Apollo Microsystems bag massive orders

Apollo Microsystems’ shares jumped nearly 3% on Thursday after the company announced that it received orders from Bharat Electronics and the Indian Navy. 

The company, in an exchange filing, said, “We are pleased to inform that the company has been declared as the Lowest Bidder for orders worth Rs 28.74 crores from Bharat Electronics and CNA (OF) Pune, Indian Navy.” 

The order from BEL is a proprietary order, it added. 

The post Sensex, Nifty50 rise on global cues; Tata stocks gain, Star Health shares slip appeared first on Invezz

A significant portion of the Federal Reserve’s decision-makers were in favor of a more aggressive approach to rate cuts during the central bank’s September meeting, according to recently released minutes.

The discussion revealed broad support for a half-point reduction in interest rates to kick-start a new phase of easier monetary policy, though there was no consensus on how quickly future rate cuts might follow.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17-18 highlighted that a “substantial majority” of participants believed a half-point cut was necessary.

This move would better align the Fed’s stance with the latest indicators from the inflation and labor markets.

The committee ultimately decided to lower the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, a shift from the previous 5.25% to 5.50% range, held since July 2023.

Fed’s recalibration aims to address economic conditions

Those in favor of the more substantial rate cut pointed to the need for a recalibration of monetary policy, noting that inflation had cooled significantly from the surging levels experienced in 2022 and 2023.

Additionally, there were indications that the labor market was weakening, as unemployment had risen, and both job creation and inflation figures in July and August came in below expectations.

The minutes underscored that the decision to cut rates should not be interpreted as a signal of economic trouble.

The committee wanted to clearly communicate that the half-point reduction was not a reflection of a deteriorating economic outlook, but rather a response to recent economic data that showed a sharp drop in inflation and a more moderate labor market.

Some officials pushed for a smaller cut

While the majority favored the half-point reduction, some members were less enthusiastic about such a sizable cut.

A smaller group of officials preferred a more cautious approach, suggesting that a quarter-point reduction would have been sufficient.

Meanwhile, “a few others” indicated that they would have been comfortable with either decision.

The discussions also reflected some frustration over the delay in implementing the cut. Several officials argued that there had already been a “plausible case” for a rate reduction during the Fed’s July meeting, and that subsequent data had only reinforced the need for looser financial conditions.

Future rate cuts remain uncertain

The minutes suggested that further rate cuts may be on the horizon, contingent on continued declines in inflation.

However, Fed officials were clear that no specific timeline or pace for additional cuts had been set.

The future trajectory of interest rate adjustments remains open to discussion as policymakers continue to monitor economic developments.

Fed policymakers have repeatedly described their approach as a “recalibration” of monetary policy, rather than a full pivot.

With inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% target and the economy still performing relatively well, the central bank is cautiously adjusting its policy to better align with current conditions, without signaling an abrupt shift in strategy.

As the Fed navigates this complex economic environment, all eyes will be on future meetings to see how the central bank balances its dual mandate of maintaining price stability and fostering maximum employment.

The post Fed minutes reveal strong push for large September rate cut amid economic shifts appeared first on Invezz

As the youngest generation in the workforce, Generation Z (Gen Z), those aged 12 to 27, are navigating a landscape filled with economic uncertainty, rising costs, and soaring debt.

The challenges Gen Z faces are strikingly similar to those that plagued millennials during their entry into adulthood, but with crucial differences that amplify their struggles.

While many members of Gen Z have college degrees, jobs, and growing incomes, they are also burdened with higher housing costs, student loan balances, and debt levels that surpass those of millennials at the same age.

As a result, the question arises: is Gen Z spending too much, or are they simply caught in an unsustainable economic system?

Gen Z’s rising financial burden

In the decade since millennials began to establish themselves in the workforce, the economic landscape has shifted dramatically.

Gen Z is spending more on essential costs like housing, insurance, and transportation compared to millennials of the same age.

According to a Washington Post analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Gen Z is spending 31% more on housing than millennials did at similar life stages.

Meanwhile, their spending on health insurance has increased by 46%, and car insurance spending has more than doubled.

Michele Raneri, head of US research at TransUnion, notes that the financial strain on Gen Z is compounded by the pandemic and its economic aftermath.

Gen Z consumers have seen their finances significantly impacted by the pandemic and its aftermath, even more so than the challenges faced by millennials.

Adding to the strain, student loan debt has become an inescapable financial burden for Gen Z, with the average borrower holding about $21,000 in student debt—13% higher than millennials at the same age, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Maxed out and falling behind: The rise of credit card debt

Beyond housing and student loans, Gen Z’s debt levels are concerning across the board. Roughly 1 in 7 Gen Zers are maxed out on their credit cards, more than any other generation.

The combination of easy access to credit and the pressures of post-pandemic spending has resulted in many young adults accumulating high-interest debt.

According to the New York Fed, credit card balances for Americans in their early 20s have risen by 25%, outpacing inflation.

In addition, delinquencies on credit cards and car loans are higher for Gen Z than they were for millennials a decade earlier.

The effects of inflation and rising costs on Gen Z’s finances

While Gen Z enjoys higher wages than millennials did at the same age, the increase has not been sufficient to offset the rising costs of living.

According to Moody’s, adults under 27 spend more on essentials like housing, dining out, gas, and insurance—categories that have seen significant price increases in recent years.

Compared to their millennial counterparts, Gen Z faces a different kind of economic challenge.

Millennials entered the workforce during two major recessions, including the Great Recession, which left many struggling to find employment.

Wages took a hit, and millennials saw a 13% reduction in earnings between 2007 and 2017.

Gen Z, by contrast, entered the workforce during a relatively strong economy, but they are facing a combination of rising inflation, high interest rates, and increasing costs across the board.

Data from the Atlanta Fed shows that wages for 16-to-24-year-olds have risen by 8.6% in the past year, outpacing the overall wage growth of 5.2%. However, inflation has eroded much of these gains.

Rising housing costs, in particular, have had a substantial impact on Gen Z’s finances. Many younger adults are renting rather than owning homes, and frequent moves lead to further price increases.

A RentCafe analysis revealed that Gen Z renters are expected to spend an average of $145,000 on rent by the time they turn 30, compared to the $126,000 spent by millennials.

The role of debt in shaping Gen Z’s financial future

The financial realities facing Gen Z are further exacerbated by the long-term implications of debt.

Members of Gen Z are more likely to have student loans than millennials, and they are carrying higher balances as well.

Additionally, a growing number of recent college graduates are struggling to find stable employment.

Data from the New York Fed shows that recent college grads are more likely to be unemployed than the general population—an alarming trend that threatens to derail their financial futures.

Is Gen Z spending too much, or is the system failing them?

While it’s easy to point to Gen Z’s rising debt levels and credit card use as evidence that they are overspending, the reality is more complex.

Gen Z is navigating an economic landscape where costs for necessities are higher than ever, and the gap between income and living expenses continues to widen.

Debt, whether from student loans, housing costs, or credit cards, has become a necessary burden for many young adults.

Jimmie Lenz, a financial economics professor at Duke University, highlights the generational shift in economic circumstances.

We’re at an inflection point: [Gen Z is] coming to age in a time of rising inflation and rising interest rates — and that will stay with them.

The combination of high debt loads, inflated costs, and stagnant wages could have lasting effects on Gen Z’s financial health and economic mobility.

The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role in shaping Gen Z’s financial behaviour.

Many younger adults, eager to make up for lost experiences during the pandemic, found themselves spending on leisure activities and impulse purchases when restrictions were lifted.

Banks and financial institutions, meanwhile, loosened their credit requirements, giving young borrowers easy access to credit cards and loans—often with dire consequences.

A generation in need of financial support

As Gen Z faces these financial challenges, there is growing concern that the current economic system is failing them.

Rising housing costs, stagnant wages, and student debt have created an environment where many young adults feel trapped in a cycle of debt and financial instability.

For Gen Z, financial support and education may be key to navigating these challenges.

Policy changes aimed at reducing student loan burdens, increasing affordable housing, and providing accessible financial education could go a long way in helping this generation build a more stable financial future.

In the meantime, Gen Z will need to balance their desire for financial independence with the harsh economic realities they face.

The question remains: Are they spending too much, or is the system stacked against them?

The post Maxed out: is Gen Z spending too much or is the system stacked against them? appeared first on Invezz

Asian equities saw an upward trend on Thursday, with stocks in Japan, South Korea, and Australia advancing.

This follows a record-setting session for US stocks, with the S&P 500 hitting its 44th all-time high of the year.

All eyes are now on the upcoming US inflation report, which may heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate easing in the near term.

In Hong Kong, equity futures also pointed to gains, despite a steep drop in mainland China’s benchmark index the previous day, which marked its biggest decline in more than four years. In contrast, an index of US-listed Chinese companies fell during New York trading.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remained steady in early Asian trading, following a modest rise during Wednesday’s session in New York.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also held steady, having increased by 0.4% the previous day, marking its eighth consecutive day of gains.

The Japanese yen remained largely unchanged, trading at approximately 149 yen per dollar after weakening to its lowest level since mid-August.

China’s economic outlook remains uncertain

Chinese stocks continue to face volatility, with little indication of immediate economic support from Beijing.

Hong Kong’s volatility index slightly dipped on Wednesday, yet remained significantly above its historical average, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

A key issue for the market is whether Chinese authorities will introduce more fiscal stimulus. Investors are watching closely, as officials have announced a press conference to discuss economic policies over the weekend.

Amidst this uncertainty, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) offered a rare bright spot, reporting a stronger-than-expected 39% increase in quarterly revenue. However, markets in Taiwan remained closed on Thursday.

Wall Street’s record highs driven by tech stocks

In the US, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% on Wednesday, reaching a new record high, with tech stocks continuing to lead the rally.

Apple Inc. rose by 1.7%, while Nvidia Corp. ended a five-day winning streak.

Tesla Inc. saw a slight dip as investors awaited the highly anticipated launch of its Robotaxi service.

Alphabet Inc., however, fell by 1.5% following reports that the US government may pursue a breakup of Google as part of a historic antitrust case targeting Big Tech.

Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, attributed tech’s recent gains to prior underperformance, which had created buying opportunities.

“We remain optimistic about the technology sector, particularly in relation to artificial intelligence,” she said, as quoted by Reuters.

We believe market volatility presents a chance to increase long-term exposure to AI.

Inflation data and Fed policy in focus

Investors are now awaiting the release of US consumer price data, which is expected to show a continued moderation in inflation.

The September consumer price index (CPI) is predicted to have increased by just 0.1%, the smallest rise in three months, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to have risen by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year.

Despite the market’s anticipation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, recent strong job market data has led to speculation that a 50-basis-point rate cut is increasingly unlikely.

Instead, the focus may shift to smaller cuts, particularly after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting revealed internal debate.

While Fed Chair Jerome Powell had suggested a more significant cut in September, some policymakers favored a more cautious approach.

David Russell, Vice President at TradeStation, told Reuters:

Policymakers agree inflation is fading and they see potential weakness in job growth. That keeps rate cuts on the table if needed. The bottom line is that Powell might have the market’s back headed into the year end.

Commodities: oil holds steady, gold stabilizes

In the commodities market, oil prices remained steady as US crude inventories increased, while investors kept a close watch on China’s forthcoming fiscal policies.

Gold, which had seen declines in the past six sessions, showed little movement on Thursday.

As markets continue to digest inflation data and monitor central bank moves, the overall sentiment remains one of cautious optimism, particularly in the tech sector, where artificial intelligence is driving long-term growth expectations.

The post Will Asian markets sustain their rally as US inflation data threatens to shift Fed policy? appeared first on Invezz

Sensex and Nifty50 traded higher on Thursday, tracking gains in other Asian markets.

Markets were up today after the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting raised expectations of further interest rate cuts by the central bank. 

For Indian markets, more US rate cuts would mean more foreign inflows into emerging markets. 

At the time of writing, the BSE Sensex was up 139.71 points, while the Nifty50 index rose 0.3% from the previous close. 

Tata Group Companies rise

Shares of most Tata Group Companies rose on Thursday after the demise of  Chairman Emeritus of Tata Sons, Ratan Tata.

Shares of Tata Elxsi rose more than 3% on Thursday, while the stock of Indian Hotels Company increased 2%. 

Shares of Tata Steel were also up 1% from the previous close. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) also gained 0.2%. TCS has cancelled its July-September earnings press conference, which was scheduled for Thursday. 

Additionally, shares of Tata Chemicals surged more than 4%. The stock has gained nearly 13% in the last 12 months. 

However, shares of Tata Motors were down nearly 2% from the previous close. 

Share of power companies rise

Share of power companies rose on Thursday with NTPC Ltd and Power Grid Corp rising more than 2%. 

The stock of Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency also rose 1% as the company is scheduled to announce its second quarter earnings on Thursday. 

The Nifty Energy index rose 1% on Thursday as well, while the stock of Tata Power gained over 2%. 

Star Health shares slump after data leak

Shares of Star Health and Allied Insurnc Cmpny slipped more than 2% after the company suffered a massive data leak. 

Sensitive information of over 30 million customers were allegedly exposed by hackers. 

The hackers claim to have accessed and leaked sensitive details, including customer names, policy numbers, mobile numbers, PAN numbers, addresses, policyholders’ claims information, and even medical reports, according to a CNBC report. 

Moreover, the hackers have made serious allegations, claiming that Amarjeet Khanuja, Star Health’s Chief Information Security Officer (CISO), sold the leaked data to them, according to the report.

Shares of oil and gas companies surge

Upstream oil companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India rose sharply on Thursday. 

Oil prices rose on Thursday as expectations of more US rate cuts boosted sentiments. 

The stock of ONGC rose 1%, while Oil India’s shares jumped 2% as higher oil prices increase the profitability of these companies. 

Meanwhile, downstream oil marketing companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd and Indian Oil Corporation also gained. 

Apollo Microsystems bag massive orders

Apollo Microsystems’ shares jumped nearly 3% on Thursday after the company announced that it received orders from Bharat Electronics and the Indian Navy. 

The company, in an exchange filing, said, “We are pleased to inform that the company has been declared as the Lowest Bidder for orders worth Rs 28.74 crores from Bharat Electronics and CNA (OF) Pune, Indian Navy.” 

The order from BEL is a proprietary order, it added. 

The post Sensex, Nifty50 rise on global cues; Tata stocks gain, Star Health shares slip appeared first on Invezz

On October 10, 2024, XTB France will host a private YouTube event titled “Let’s Talk Investment – the Debate,” focusing on how to prepare investments for 2025.

The exclusive event will feature three debates and is reserved for registered participants, offering insights from top industry experts.

The event aims to inform the public about economic prospects, optimal investment strategies, and blockchain’s future, positioning XTB as a leader in the investment field.

Experts to address 2025 investment strategies

The event, scheduled for 7 p.m. on October 10, 2024, will be hosted on YouTube and moderated by Antoine Andréani, Senior XTB market analyst.

Registered participants will receive a link via email to access the debates, making it a targeted and informative session for those keen to understand upcoming economic trends.

Event details:

  • Date and time: October 10, 2024, at 7 p.m.
  • Platform: YouTube (private link sent via email to registered participants)
  • Moderator: Antoine Andréani, Senior XTB market analyst

The event’s main goal is to educate the public on the best investment strategies for the coming year while enhancing XTB’s brand visibility within the finance community.

The expert panels and discussion topics

The debates will feature seasoned experts discussing key themes, including macroeconomic outlooks, investments for 2025, and blockchain’s potential.

Each debate will delve into the most relevant topics for investors preparing for the upcoming year.

  1. Macroeconomy: What are the economic prospects for 2024/2025?
    • Experts:
      • Véronique Riches-Flores (Independent Economist, RICHESFLORES RESEARCH)
      • Didier Borowski (Macroeconomic Policy Research Manager, AMUNDI)
        This session will explore economic trends and challenges for the next two years, guiding investors through potential risks and opportunities.
  2. Investment: What will be the best investments in 2025?
    • Experts:
      • Philippe Béchade (Editor-in-Chief and Analyst, AGORA)
      • Pierre Bismuth (General Director, MYRIA-AM)
        The second debate will focus on emerging investment trends and strategies, highlighting sectors poised for growth and providing insights into asset diversification.
  3. Blockchain: Can Bitcoin reach $100,000? What future for blockchain?
    • Experts:
      • Claire Award (Vice President, DEBLOCK)
      • Benjamin Mauger (CEO, TRADEMEWAY)
        The final debate will examine the future of blockchain and cryptocurrency, with experts discussing the feasibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 and broader blockchain implications for the economy.

The event is designed to engage a targeted audience, drive traffic to XTB’s YouTube channel, and establish the company as a thought leader in the investment space.

By offering in-depth analysis and expert perspectives, XTB aims to solidify its reputation as a key player in the financial and investment industry.

The post YouTube event “Let’s Talk Investment – the Debate” to address 2025 strategies appeared first on Invezz

Banzai International Inc (NASDAQ: BNZI) rallied more than 120% on Wednesday after announcing strategic initiatives it hopes will improve its net income by a whopping $13.5 million by early 2025.

The marketing technology company will lower its yearly operational costs by close to $10 million and cut other expenses as well by up to $3.6 million as part of the roadmap it laid out today.

Despite a sharp surge in Banzi stock price this morning, shares of the Washington-based company are still trading only at a fraction of the price at which they started in 2024.

Banzai stock could benefit from cost cuts

Banzai International said it will resort to several cost-cutting measures, including a 27% reduction in its workforce in pursuit of a significant boost to net income.

The Nasdaq-listed firm will provide career transition resources on top of comprehensive severance packages to the affected employees, as per its press release on Wednesday.

“Implementing these strategic initiatives, if fully achieved, will enable us to substantially extend our cash runway and invest in growth,” Joe Davy – the chief executive of Banzai told investors today.

The marketing technology company expects this workforce adjustment to cost $0.1 million in total.

BNZI plans on leveraging automation to lower vendor and legal/accounting costs to improve operational efficiency as well.

Banzai International disclosed these strategic initiatives shortly after closing a $5 million private placement under Nasdaq rules to bolster its cash stature.

The company counts notable names as customers, including Square, Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Hewlett Packard Enterprises.

Banzai disappointed in its fiscal second quarter

Banzai has secured an extension from Columbia Pacific Advisors on its long-term debt that will now mature on February 19th, 2027 instead of February 19th, 2025.

The interest expense is also now Payable-in-Kind rather than cash – a move that will result in a meaningful decline in cash expenses and may help BNZI eliminate $1.9 million in annual expenses if the debt if entirely converted to equity. According to CEO Davy:

We’re dedicated to managing costs without sacrificing growth. We are confident that this strategic realignment will strengthen our competitive position and contribute to our long-term success.

In August, the Nasdaq-listed firm reported 15 cents a share of loss on $1.07 million in revenue for its second financial quarter.

Analysts, in comparison, were 13 cents per share and $1.17 million, respectively.

Note that Banzai stock is not very widely covered by Wall Street analysts and it does not currently pay a dividend yield either.

The post Banzai stock more than doubled on Wednesday: here’s why appeared first on Invezz

The USD/JPY exchange rate drifted upwards on Thursday morning as the US dollar index (DXY) rally gains steam after the Federal Reserve minutes. The pair rose to a high of 149.15, its highest point since August 1. It has risen by over 6.75% from its lowest point in September.

Japan’s sticky inflation

The USD to JPY pair rose after Japan’s statistics agency published a fairly strong inflation report. 

The Producer Price Index rose from -0.2% in August to 0.0% in September, higher than the median estimate of minus 0.3%. It rose from 2.6% to 2.8% on an annualized basis, beating the median estimate of 2.3%. 

The other recent report showed that Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.8% in August to 3.0% in September. It has risen from the year-to-date low of 2.0% and is at the highest point since November last year.

These numbers mean that Japan’s inflation has become stubbornly high, pointing to a potential hawkish BoJ when it meets on October 31st.

The BoJ caught investors off-guard earlier this year when it raised interest rates by 0.10% and exited negative rates. It then hiked by 0.25% in its July meeting, leading to a major bloodbath in the forex and stock market as investors unwound the Japanese yen carry trade

The BoJ then left rates unchanged in the last meeting as the governor warned that more hikes should not be ruled out if inflation remained stubbornly high. 

Inflation pressures could continue now that the new government led by Ishiba Shigeru has directed his cabinet to compile a stimulus package. 

This package will likely come after the October 27 election. Some of the potential parts of the package will be boosting the minimum wage, subsidies to local governments, and payouts to low-income households. These are highly inflationary events that could push the BoJ to deliver more cuts.

Federal Reserve minutes

The USD/JPY exchange rate also rebounded after the Federal Reserve published minutes of the last meeting. 

These minutes showed that officials were divided on whether to cut interest rates by 0.50% or 0.25%. A good number of officials favored the 0.25% cut. 

Therefore, while more Fed officials preferred a 0.50% increase, they all agreed that the pace of cuts should normalize if inflation retreats and the labor market improves.

Last week’s US jobs numbers showed that the US was achieving these conditions. The labor market added over 254k jobs in September, while the agency revised the August jobs numbers upwards. After peaking at 4.3% in July, the unemployment rate retreated to 4.1% while wage growth was stronger than expected.

Analysts believe that Thursday’s inflation data will show that the trend was moving in the right direction.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to drop from 0.2% in August to 0.1% in September. It will then drop from 2.5% to 2.3% on an annualised basis, meaning that it is moving to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to move from 0.3% to 0.2% and remain at 3.2% on a year-on-year basis.

The US will also release the producer price index (PPI) report on Friday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline PPI retreated from 0.2% in August to 0.1% in September, while the core figure fell to 0.2%.

If these estimates are correct, and if the October jobs numbers are correct, it means that the Fed will opt for a 0.25% interest rate in the next meeting.

A key factor that could affect US inflation is the elevated oil prices because of the rising geopolitical issues in the Middle East.

Israel is considering launching a major attack against Israel in response to the recent missile attack. As a result, Brent crude oil has jumped to $77.2, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has jumped to $74.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to JPY exchange rate bottomed at 139.56 on September 16, and rebounded to 149.17, its highest point on August 16.

It has moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), meaning that bulls are now in control.

The pair is attempting to move above the key resistance point at 149.35, its highest point on August 16, and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). 

Also, the MACD indicator has moved above the neutral point, while other oscillators have risen. Therefore, the USD/JPY pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at 151.91, its highest point in November last year. A drop below the 50-day moving average point at 146.68 will invalidate the bullish view. 

The post USD/JPY forecast: signal as BoJ interest rate hike odds rise appeared first on Invezz

The Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) stock price is firing on all cylinders and outperforming its closest rivals like Carnival and Norwegian. It has risen in the last three consecutive months, and is sitting at a record high of $193. 

After tumbling to a low of $19.12 in 2020, the stock has pared back those losses, and soared by 920%, giving it a market cap of $50 billion.

RCL has become bigger than Carnival ($23 billion), Norwegian ($10 billion), and Viking Cruises ($16 billion), combined. 

This is even though its revenue figures are significantly lower than Carnival’s. RCL’s annual revenue in the trailing twelve months stood at $15 billion compared to Carnival’s $24 billion. Its profit of $2.5 billion was higher than Carnival’s $1.5 billion. 

Royal Caribbean is doing well

Royal Caribbean is a leading cruise line company that operates three key brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises. These brands have 26, 16, and 11 ships, respectively.

The company has also created a partnership with TUI, the biggest holiday company globally. For example, it has a 50% joint venture with TUIC, which operates German brands TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd

Like other companies in the cruise industry, Royal Caribbean was affected significantly by the last Covid-19 pandemic as its business shut. 

Unlike the aviation industry which received bailouts, cruise lines received little support, and had to rely on debt and equity. RCL’s long-term debt jumped from $8.2 billion in 2019 to over $17.9 billion in 2020.

It also diluted its investors by selling new shares, which pushed its common outstanding shares from 208 million in 2019 to over 256 million today. The company also slashed costs by furloughing workers.

Royal Caribbean’s annual revenue dropped from over $10.9 billion in 2019 to $2.2 billion in 2020. Most of its revenue in 2020 came in the first quarter before governments imposed travel restrictions. Its 2021 revenue tumbled to $1.5 billion. 

Since then, the company has been in a strong recovery as the cruise industry has bounced back. Its annual revenue rose to $8.8 billion in 2022 followed by $13.9 billion last year, and analysts expect that the trend will continue.

According to Yahoo Finance, its 2024 will be $16.5 billion followed by $17.9 billion next year. It will then get to $20 billion in either 2026 or 2027. 

RCL’s business is booming

The most recent financial results showed that its revenue continued doing well as it reached its financial targets 18 months earlier than expected. Some of these targets are its triple-digit EBITDA per average passenger cruise days (APCD), return on invested capital (ROIC) in its teens, and a double-digit EPS. 

The numbers revealed that its load factor surged to 108% while its net income jumped to over $854 million. 

The company is benefiting from the renewed demand for cruising, which has seen forward bookings surge. Unlike in the past when cruising was a reserve for the elderly, many young people have embraced the trend. 

For RCL, higher demand means that it has room to boost prices. It also implies that the company has substantial customer deposits on hand. It ended the last quarter with $6.2 billion in customer deposits, which it can use to generate returns.

Valuation concerns remain

Royal Caribbean is doing well, and therefore, requires a premium valuation. As mentioned above, a key concern is whether the company is severely overvalued or whether the other brands are cheaper. 

RCL has a forward P/E ratio of 16.5, which is lower than the S&P 500 multiple of 21 and the consumer discretionary median of 18. 

It also has a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 12, higher than the industry median of 10. These numbers mean that the company is trading at a premium, especially considering its substantial debt load of over $20 billion. 

To some extent, this premium valuation can be justified by its growth metrics. It has a trailing revenue growth of 27.7% and a forward metric of 26. Its forward EBITDA growth is 108%, which is impressive. The next key catalyst to watch will be its earnings, which are set to happen on October 29. 

Read more: Carnival stock sits at a key price: comeback could be epic

Royal Caribbean stock price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the RCL share price has been in a spectacular bull run in the past few years, as I predicted. It recently flipped the important resistance point at $133.80, its highest point in 2020. 

The stock formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-week and 200-week moving averages crossed each other. 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 71, meaning that it is not extremely overbought. The Chaikin oscillator has remained above the zero line.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue soaring ahead of its earnings release. However, a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out before then. 

The post Royal Caribbean stock is beating Carnival and Norwegian: is it a buy? appeared first on Invezz

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF (VGLT) ETFs have pulled back in the past few weeks as investors assess the next actions of the Federal Reserve and a potential black swan event in the US. 

The more popular TLT ETF retreated to $94.45, down by 7.05% from its highest point this year. Similarly, the VGLT fund has retreated by 6.12% to $59. The two three-star rated funds have had positive total returns this year, rising by over 13%. 

Federal Reserve actions

The TLT and VGLT funds are some of the biggest bond funds in Wall Street with over $58 billion and $19 billion, respectively. 

TLT tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Years Bond Index while the VGLT invests in government bonds with a maturity of between 10 and 25 years. 

These funds are affected by the movement in long-term interest rates in the United States, which is in turn, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions.

The most recent data shows that the benchmark 30-year Treasury Yield was trading at 4.34%, up from the year-to-date low of 3.8%. Shorter-term yields have also bounced back, with the two-year rising from 3.5% to 4%.

These yields have jumped because of the changing view about the Federal Reserve. A few weeks ago, the consensus view among analysts was that the Fed would deliver several jumbo rate cuts to put a check on the labor market. 

That happened after a series of weaker jobs reports. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised downwards the number of jobs created in the 12 months to March this year by over 800k. 

More data showed that the unemployment rate crawled back from a low of 3.5% this year to 4.3%, while wage growth slowed.

All this happened at a time when the country’s inflation was moving downwards. After peaking at a 40-year high of 9.1% in 2022, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has retreated to 2.5%. 

The closely watched personal consumption expenditure (PCE) has also retreated from 6.8% to 2.2%, meaning that these figures are approaching the Fed’s 2.0% target. 

The next key catalyst for the TLT and VGLT ETFs will be the upcoming US inflation data, which will likely have little impact on the next Federal Reserve actions. Analysts expect the data to show that the headline CPI retreated from 2.5% in August to 2.3% in September. 

Black swan event ahead

The biggest risk for US long-term bonds and ETFs like TLT and VGLT is that the economy faces a major black swan event after the upcoming general election. 

The swan event to watch is the public debt, which has entered beast mode in the past few years. Data shows that the total public debt has risen from about $10 trillion to $33.5 trillion today, and is adding $1 trillion after every three months. Granted, the GDP has risen from $14.7 trillion to $28.1 trillion in the same period.

This debt increase has happened when Democrats and Republicans were in power. Donald Trump, a Republican, added public debt by over $8 trillion, in part because of tax cuts and his pandemic response. 

However, the challenge is that the current trajectory is not good, and the situation could worsen after the next election.

A report by a non-partisan agency estimated that Trump’s actions will boost the budget deficit by $7.5 trillion in the next decade. His plan to extend his tax cuts and implement additional ones will influence this deficit. 

Kamala Harris is also expected to boost the deficit in her tenure because of her welfare spending, which will be influenced by her tax increases. Her spending will boost the deficit by $3.5 trillion. 

Therefore, the black swan event is where the US loses the last Triple-A credit from Moody’s. S&P downgraded the US to AA+ in 2011, while Fitch did the same in 2023. Moody’s has warned that the ongoing unconstrained spending could push it to slash its rating. 

As such, there is a risk that the US could go through what the UK went through during the mini-budget crisis in 2022.

VGLT vs TLT: which is a better buy?

The VGLT and TLT ETFs are risky funds to invest in because of the elevated US public debt risks. However, if I had to recommend – and I am not – I believe that the smaller VGLT is a better one to invest in.

VGLT has a dividend yield of 3.86% while the TLT fund yields 3.85%. Its four-year average yield is 2.75% while TLT is 2.48%.

Another important data is that VGLT is a cheaper fund to invest in because of its 0.04% expense ratio compared to TLT’s 0.15%. These factors explain why the VGLT has done better than the TLT in the last few years. 

The post VGLT and TLT ETFs retreat; concerns of a black swan event rise appeared first on Invezz