As per a report by Moneycontrol, the future of India’s renewable energy exports, specifically solar modules, may be at risk if the Trump administration decreases its commitment to clean energy imports.

Indian companies such as Tata Power, Adani Green Energy, Premier Energies, and Waaree Energies, which rely significantly on the US market, could face a challenging environment as the US pivots towards protectionist policies.

Trump’s stance could hinder these firms’ growth, especially as India imports a substantial share of solar cells from China.

The outcome may alter both India’s and the global renewable energy landscape, given the large-scale implications.

The impact of Trump’s policies on Indian exporters

In recent years, major Indian players have achieved mixed stock performance.

Tata Power stocks, for instance, rose by 2% in the past week but dropped by 3% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Waaree Energies shares jumped by 17% in the last five sessions, reflecting investor optimism despite impending challenges.

Experts, however, are uncertain about the long-term effects of Trump’s policies.

Some analysts predict a shift in demand, especially if US tariffs on solar modules from China increase, affecting the cost of renewable energy imports from other countries, including India.

Rising tariffs and anti-dumping duties

Analysts at Elara Capital expect US tariffs on renewable imports could rise in the coming years, and anti-dumping duties may be enforced to support US manufacturers.

Rupesh Sankhe, an analyst from Elara, highlights that such a shift would create barriers for Indian exporters, with the major effects likely appearing within three to four years.

Though short-term impacts might be minimal, the longer term could see Indian firms, especially those like Waaree Energies with significant US exports, needing to adjust their strategies and expansion plans.

Should Trump impose stricter limitations on Chinese components, Indian companies might face additional complications due to their reliance on Chinese-manufactured cells.

The Trump administration’s focus on domestic manufacturing may mean that India’s long-term international expansion targets, set for 2030, could face obstacles if the US reduces its import dependence.

Offshore wind and broader implications for renewable energy

In contrast to President Biden’s pro-offshore wind policies, Trump’s stance could reduce US investments in offshore wind projects, which Biden previously aimed to expand with an 80-100 gigawatt target.

Trump’s preference for lower capital expenditure projects might further limit foreign firms’ ability to export renewable solutions to the US.

Experts note that completely dismantling Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could be challenging due to its extensive benefits for various US states.

The IRA has allocated billions in subsidies for renewable projects until 2035, which means that while the policy’s pace may slow under Trump, it may not be fully reversed.

India’s renewable sector could still see limited capital flow, compounded by challenges in earnings and macroeconomic headwinds within India itself.

Industry experts acknowledge these internal issues may influence India’s renewable sector independently from any shifts in US policy.

Possible advantages for India amid US-China tensions

While Trump’s anti-China stance presents challenges, it may also create some advantages for India.

Siddhartha Khemka from Motilal Oswal Financial Services suggests that if tariffs on Chinese products increase significantly, India’s competitive position in the renewable energy sector could improve.

The US’s anti-dumping policies could shield its domestic market but may provide India with opportunities to strengthen its role in the global market.

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Toast stock price is on track to rise for the second consecutive week of gains as investors flock back to fintech companies. Its surge accelerated on Thursday after the company published strong financial results and boosted its forward guidance. It has now jumped by over 172% from its lowest level in 2022, and is hovering at its highest swing since January of that year.

Fintech stocks are doing well

Toast stock price surge mirrors that of other companies in the financial technology industry. For example, PayPal stock has jumped by over 50% this year, and is hovering at its highest level since February 2023. 

Similarly, Affirm stock jumped to $50, much higher than the August low of $22, while Block, the parent company of Square, is up by over 80% from its 2023 lows.

This recovery is happening at a time when most of these companies are seeing moderate – but profitable growth. This is a sharp contrast to what they did in the past when they were all focusing on growth at all cost. 

Most of these firms have slashed workers to preserve cash. They have also worked on boosting their offerings since competition is increasing. Most of this competition is coming from other tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Apple. 

Toast stock jumped after earnings

The TOST share price jumped by almost 20% in the after-hours, reaching to a high of $39, its highest level in almost three years. 

These numbers showed that its Annual Recurring Revenue or ARR jumped by 28% in the third quarter to $1.6 billion. This growth happened as retail spending in restaurants continued doing well in the quarter. 

Some of its top clients like Sweetgreen, Cava, and Joe Coffee have reported strong growth, with many of them opening new store locations. In all, store locations increased by 28% YoY to 127,000. 

Its Gross Payment Volume (GPV) jumped by 24% in the quarter to $41.7 billion. Revenue rose by from $1.032 billion in Q3’23 to $1.3 billion in Q3’24. Most of this revenue came from its technology solutions, followed by its subscriptions and hardware. The nine-month revenue also jumped from $2.8 billion in 2023 to $3.6 billion. 

The most important part of Toast’s business is that it turned a profit in the last quarter as its revenue growth coincided with reduced costs. 

The management also boosted its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and annually. Its subscription revenue and financial technology division is expected to grow by between 32% and 35% to between $370 million and $380 million. 

For the year, analysts see its subscription revenue coming in at between $1.39 billion and $1.4 billion. 

Read more: Toast stock is trading at a discount: Goldman Sachs

Growth to continue

A likely catalyst for the Toast stock price is that the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates, a sign that inflation is falling.

Lower rates will, in theory, lead to more consumer spending, especially in the restaurant industry, which will lead to more sales. 

The other important catalyst for the TOST stock is that it may continue gaining market share, especially among smaller restaurant brands.

As such, analysts believe that Toast’s annual revenue will grow by 26% this year to $4.88 billion. They also expect that the revenue figure will move to $6.02 billion in the coming year. 

Additionally, analysts believe that Toast has now entered a new era of profitable growth. They see it losing 29 cents a share this year followed by a 29-cent profit in 2025. 

Still, the key challenge that could hurt the company is that competition in the checkout industry is set to intensify as companies seek to gain market share. Some of the most notable competitors are firms like Square for Restaurants, Clover, Lightspeed, and TouchBistro.

Another key issue is that the company’s valuation is relatively stretched since the company is now valued at almost $20 billion. Therefore, it needs to keep its revenue and profits to justify this growth trend. 

Read more: Goldman Sachs: Buy Carnival, Micron, Toast, and Pfizer stocks

Toast stock price analysis

The daily chart shows that the TOST share price has been in a strong rally in the past few months. It recently crossed the important resistance point at $27.86, where it formed a double-top pattern between May and July this year. Moving above that level invalidated one of the most bearish signs in the market. 

The stock has remained above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, signaling that bulls are in control. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards and are at their overbought levels.

Therefore, the Toast stock price will likely continue rising as bulls target its all-time high at $69.70. To do that, the shares will need to cross the psychological level at $50. If this happens, it means that it will jump by over 100% from the current level.

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A CNBC report reveals that Samsung Electronics, once the global leader in memory chips, now faces a challenging landscape as rival SK Hynix has advanced with high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology essential to artificial intelligence (AI).

As AI-driven applications like ChatGPT have spiked demand for high-performance chips, SK Hynix has emerged as the go-to supplier for Nvidia, the dominant player in AI GPUs.

With a sharp decline in profits and a significant drop in market valuation, Samsung must confront strategic gaps in next-gen memory development to stay competitive in the AI landscape.

Samsung’s missed opportunity in high-bandwidth memory

Memory chips are central to various devices, from smartphones to data centres, storing and processing vast amounts of information.

For years, Samsung led the industry in memory technology, overshadowing both SK Hynix and the US-based Micron.

Yet, as demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) surged, driven by the rise of AI, Samsung’s lack of investment in this area became increasingly evident.

High-bandwidth memory involves stacking multiple dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips to enhance speed and capacity, ideal for powering sophisticated AI models.

Nvidia, seeking to meet the demands of tech firms using AI, turned to SK Hynix, which had anticipated this trend.

In response, SK Hynix aggressively accelerated HBM production, receiving Nvidia’s approval for use in its GPUs, a move that strengthened its market position.

The decision not only solidified SK Hynix’s lead in HBM but also positioned it as a critical supplier to Nvidia, further widening the gap with Samsung.

As a result, S&P Capital IQ data states that Samsung has experienced a dramatic fall in its profits, losing around $126 billion in market value, while noting that Samsung’s late entry into HBM has been a costly oversight.

Samsung’s bid to catch up in HBM innovation

Despite Samsung’s struggles, the tech giant has shifted its strategy to close the gap.

In the third quarter, Samsung’s HBM sales rose by 70% compared to the previous quarter, driven by strong demand in AI sectors.

Samsung’s HBM3E chip has reached mass production, and its next-generation HBM4 is slated for launch by late 2025, indicating a renewed commitment to competing in this vital sector.

Yet, it is best to remain cautious about Samsung’s ability to regain its former dominance.

With SK Hynix holding a significant advantage in the HBM space and having established deep industry partnerships, Samsung’s path forward remains challenging.

Samsung’s future success in HBM hinges on accelerated research and development (R&D) efforts and the timely delivery of its next-gen memory technology.

The question remains whether these moves can allow Samsung to reclaim its foothold in the rapidly evolving AI market.

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Following the election victory of Donald J Trump on Wednesday, while stocks rallied as investors showed optimism for Trump’s policies favouring tax cuts, deregulation, and government spending, bond market movements emerged to be conspicuous for investors.

The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for global finance, increased by almost a quarter point on Wednesday to peak at 4.48% before closing at 4.425%, its highest level since July.

It now stands at 4.3%, but well above the 3.6% it was yielding right before the Fed cut rates on September 18, if still lower than this year’s high.

This spike, driven by investor concerns about potential government spending and inflation, has revealed underlying apprehension in the $28 trillion US government debt market.

The bond market: a signal of fiscal unease

The bond market has long been regarded as a bellwether for economic policy sentiment, with the saying, “The bond market is smarter than the stock market,” capturing its predictive power.

Ed Yardeni, the veteran investment strategist who coined “bond vigilantes” in the 1980s, noted the significance of this market shift.

He highlighted that Trump’s substantial support empowers him on a global scale but raises red flags for bond investors wary of continuous fiscal stimulus amid wide deficits.

By raising interest rates, financial markets signal that they will penalize policies deemed likely to fuel inflation and expand the national debt.

This increase in borrowing costs could, in turn, ripple through Trump’s economy, curbing growth and impacting other markets.

Yields have been climbing for weeks, reflecting expectations of a Trump win and a potential resurgence of inflation.

Yardeni is one of the investors who believe it could potentially reach 5% again if Trump’s fiscal policies provoke investor concerns.

Why are rising yields bad?

Rising bond yields can spell trouble for current debt holders due to the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields.

This dynamic has led to paper losses, impacting institutions like pension funds, hedge funds, and central banks worldwide that depend on US government debt as a safe asset.

Although new buyers might welcome the higher returns, the implications for global financial stability and borrowing costs are significant.

Trump’s proposed fiscal policies—extending the sweeping tax cuts from 2017, eliminating taxes on tips, and halting taxes on Social Security benefits—could dramatically increase federal borrowing.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that his initiatives may elevate national debt by $7.8 trillion over the next decade, more than double the projected $3.5 trillion under Kamala Harris’s plans.

This escalating debt, coupled with potential inflation fuelled by tax cuts and government spending, poses a grim scenario for bond investors and raises questions about the government’s debt-handling capabilities.

The Fed’s future rate cuts face uncertainty with Trump’s economic plans

The Federal Reserve on Thursday responded to the economic climate with a 25 basis point rate cut during its recent monetary policy meeting, following a substantial 50 basis point reduction in September.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury settled at 4.35% from its Wednesday high of 4.44%, signalling some market recalibration.

However, analysts suggest that Trump’s economic agenda—centered on tax reductions and deregulation—could drive faster growth and inflation, complicating future rate cuts.

Tony Rodriguez, Nuveen’s head of fixed income strategy, noted that the election outcome might prompt the Fed to lower rates more gradually than previously planned.

“Expected cuts in 2025 we now think will be fewer and further apart,” he said, emphasizing the central bank’s caution against sparking an inflationary rebound.

With Trump’s policy intentions becoming clearer, Treasury yield projections have been revised.

Fed funds futures signal that investors foresee rates declining to around 3.7% by the end of next year—a higher trajectory than predicted just two months prior.

Strategists at BofA Global Research have revised their near-term target for Treasury yields to 4.25% to 4.75%, a notable shift from their previous range of 3.5% to 4.25%.

Could elevated yields impact stock markets?

The saying “When the bond market sneezes, the stock market catches a cold” reflects the relationship between yields and equities.

Higher interest rates on virtually risk-free bonds diminish the extra return investors seek from riskier assets like stocks, making shares a less attractive investment option.

Despite soaring Treasury yields, the stock market has thus far reacted positively, buoyed by the resolution of election uncertainty and prospects of economic growth.

The S&P 500 index hit record highs as investors anticipated business-friendly policies.

However, caution persists. Senior investment strategist Angelo Kourkafas from Edward Jones highlighted the potential for market pullbacks if yields continue to rise sharply.

“When 10-year Treasury yields neared 4.5% or went higher over the last year, it has triggered some pullbacks in equity markets,” he stated, underscoring the risk of rising borrowing costs affecting both businesses and consumers.

What to do with your 10-year notes now?

Higher yields have created dilemmas for investors holding older bonds with lower rates, eroding their market value.

While the temptation to sell and reinvest in higher-yielding bonds is strong, strategic patience could be more rewarding.

In a Barron’s report, JB Golden, portfolio manager at Advisors Asset Management, advises waiting until the market stabilizes.

“There could be some really nice opportunities,” he suggested, pointing to the potential benefits of buying 7-10 year bonds if yields climb to between 4.5% and 5%.

However, he remains cautious about longer-duration investments until there is greater clarity on the federal budget deficit’s trajectory.

Amid Trump’s ambitious spending plans, questions about fiscal responsibility have emerged.

Notably, economic heavyweights like John Paulson and Scott Bessent have voiced their concerns.

Both, potential contenders for positions like Treasury Secretary, have openly critiqued excessive government spending.

Analysts agree that the choice of Treasury leadership will heavily influence the administration’s economic direction and the markets’ response to fiscal policy.

Bond vigilantes may have signalled their return, a reminder that while bullish policies can ignite markets, they also come with a steep price—one the bond market is quick to point out.

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Aviva share price is on track to drop for three consecutive weeks as traders eye its earnings, which are expected to come out next week. AV stock has dropped to 456p, and is hovering near its lowest point since August 5. It has retreated by 8.50% from its highest level this year, meaning that it could move into a correction soon. 

Aviva share price is being pressured

AV is not the only UK insurance company whose stock has pulled back in the past few months. Prudential, a company that focuses on the emerging market, has tumbled by almost 50% from its highest level in 2023.

Similarly, Legal & General shares have moved into a correction after falling by 13% from the year-to-date high. Direct Line Insurance remains in a deep bear market.

One of the reasons for this performance is the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), which has intensified its regulations in the industry. In August, the agency said that it was launching an investigation into the pure protection insurance market for insurance customers. 

The agency also launched an investigation into auto insurance add ons by some of the top companies in the industry. 

Still, Aviva has done much better than other insurance companies for a few reasons. First, it has gone under a major transformation under Amanda Blanc, who has become one of the top female executives in the country. 

One of the approaches has been to exit most of its international markets like France, Italy, Poland, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Spain. These actions have led to a leaner company with a clear mandate in the UK and a few international markets like Canada. 

Amanda Blanc has also announced some strategic acquisitions in a bid to solidify its market share. For example, it acquired Succession Wealth in 2022 in a £385 million. The most recent major acquisition was AIG Life business for £460 million. It also bought Probitas Holdings.

These acquisitions are meant to solidify its performance in the home market and grow its market share.

Read more: Aviva share price outlook: is the 7.12% yield too good to ignore?

Turnaround is working

These turnaround measures are working. The most recent results showed that Aviva’s number of customers jumped to over 19.5 million and analysts believe that the number will get to 20 million soon.

The results also showed that Aviva’s gross premiums rose by 15%, while its wealth inflows rose by 16%, while its IWR sales jumped by 12%. These are strong numbers for a company that has been in business since 1696.

Amanda Blanc is also working to achieve her profit target ahead of schedule. Its operating profit is expected to get to £2 billion by 2026. Its cash remittances are expected to ge to £5.8 billion by 2026.

As a result, the company has continued to return funds to investors. It completed a £300 million share buyback in June and hinted to more repurchases in the future. 

Aviva is also one of the top dividend payers in the UK. It boosted its dividends by 7% in the first half, bringing the yield to 7.47%. This means that a £10,000 invested in the company will bring in over £700 in payouts each year. 

There are also signs that Aviva is an undervalued company. It has a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, and a price-to-book multiple of 1.40. 

Read more: FTSE 100 index shares to watch: Aviva, Vodafone, ICG, Flutter

Aviva share price analysis

AV chart by TradingView

In the long-term, we believe that the Aviva stock price peaked at a record high of 497.9p in September, and then suffered a deep reversal.

The current level is along the lower side of the ascending channel shown in orange. It is also along the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). 

The stock has also formed a rising broadening wedge pattern, a popular bearish sign. Therefore, there is a risk that the stock will drop sharply after its earnings, especially if it losses the 200 EMA and the lower side of the wedge. If this happens, the stock may drop to 400p, which is about 12% below the current level.

On the positive side, a rebound could see it retest the resistance at 500p, which is about 10% above the current level.

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