As Diwali celebrations recede, Delhi’s air quality remains in the “very poor” category and is expected to deteriorate further.

The pollution crisis has escalated concerns not only for public health but also for India’s economic outlook.

On Friday, Delhi residents woke to a thick smog enveloping the city, with pollution levels in Anand Vihar registering in the “severe” category.

Data from the Central Pollution Control Board shows that Delhi’s air quality index (AQI) has surpassed 300, with pollutant PM2.5 levels recorded at 145 micrograms per cubic meter, a figure significantly above the World Health Organization’s safe limit.

Stubborn air pollution problem worsens

India’s capital, home to over 30 million people, has grappled with one of the most persistent air pollution challenges globally.

In 2023, AQI levels remained consistently high, particularly during the winter months when the cold air traps pollutants close to the ground.

Studies indicate that this season of elevated pollution, worsened by factors like Diwali festivities and temperature inversion, presents serious health hazards that extend far beyond Delhi, affecting cities like Chennai, Bangalore, and Shimla.

A Lancet study estimated that in 2019, nearly 18% of deaths in India were linked to air pollution.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a particular concern, as its microscopic size allows it to penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, increasing risks for respiratory diseases, cardiovascular issues, and even cancer.

Pollution’s economic toll on India’s GDP

India’s persistent air quality crisis has serious economic consequences, costing the nation an estimated 1.36% of its GDP due to healthcare costs and premature deaths, according to a World Bank report.

Workers exposed to hazardous air face greater health risks, often requiring time off for illness, which impacts productivity.

In turn, businesses and public health systems are under continuous strain, which could have long-term implications for growth, particularly in Delhi, a major hub of government and commerce.

In 2023, the World Bank calculated that the economic burden from health conditions linked to pollution was over $36 billion. Industries such as tourism and agriculture are also affected.

New Delhi’s reputation as one of the world’s most polluted cities can discourage international visitors, impacting tourism revenue and limiting business investment.

The agriculture sector also faces reduced crop yields due to poor air quality, which further stresses food supply chains and the livelihoods of millions.

Root causes: stubble burning, vehicle emissions, and temperature inversion

Multiple sources contribute to India’s air pollution, from vehicular emissions to construction dust, industrial smoke, and stubble burning in neighboring states like Punjab and Haryana.

Although agricultural fires are often blamed, data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology shows that while stubble burning contributes, vehicle emissions remain the primary pollutant.

The complex atmospheric condition of temperature inversion during winter further traps pollutants, making them more potent and visible.

Despite a 38% reduction in farm fires in 2023, air quality did not improve markedly, emphasizing the challenge of pinpointing a single cause.

There is also a lack of consensus among scientists on the principal contributors, complicating efforts to create an effective policy framework.

What steps has India taken?

India’s National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), launched in 2019, set ambitious targets to curb pollution across 122 of its most affected cities. However, the program’s progress has been slower than anticipated.

The Delhi government has implemented several measures to combat smog, including restricting motor vehicles, mist spraying, and investing in smog towers—tall air purifiers meant to filter pollution.

However, research shows that smog towers have limited efficacy, and critics argue that the funds could be better spent on impactful initiatives like expanding green infrastructure.

More promising efforts include electrifying public transportation. Delhi has committed to replacing all compressed natural gas (CNG) buses with electric vehicles by 2028, and all taxis and delivery vehicles are to be fully electric by 2030.

These changes, although promising, will take years to impact air quality significantly.

Impact on residents and grassroots efforts

Delhi’s residents, particularly those who spend significant time outdoors, bear the brunt of the pollution. Sales of air purifiers have risen, though many still view these devices as luxuries rather than essentials.

Some residents have turned to social media to express frustration, while others experiment with “immunity-boosting” remedies to counteract pollution-related ailments.

Government officials have occasionally promoted such “remedies” online, which has led to public skepticism, as people feel a systemic solution is more critical than individual health hacks.

While grassroots advocacy and educational campaigns are gaining traction, the general public often feels disillusioned, with limited avenues to press for more robust policies.

The government’s intermittent restrictions and advisories to avoid outdoor activities during high pollution periods only emphasize the extent of the crisis.

Comparing India’s pollution levels globally

India is home to nine of the world’s ten most polluted cities, and 42 of the top 50, according to IQAir, a Swiss air quality technology company.

Delhi regularly tops the list, far exceeding safe AQI levels set by the World Health Organization. In contrast, other countries have shown more progress.

For example, China has successfully decreased PM2.5 levels in major cities through stringent policies and investment in clean energy, illustrating that sustained efforts can yield results.

On a per-country basis, India’s air pollution mortality rate is lower than in parts of Africa and West Asia, where desert dust and other factors contribute to high particulate levels.

However, the sheer scale of India’s population amplifies the health impact, leading to a higher absolute number of pollution-related deaths.

The path forward: tackling India’s air pollution crisis

Addressing India’s air quality challenge requires a comprehensive approach involving stronger enforcement of existing regulations, increased funding, and sustained public awareness campaigns.

Experts suggest that targeting vehicular emissions and industrial pollution through stricter regulations and incentives for green energy will yield the most immediate benefits.

Improved data collection and air quality monitoring would also provide a better understanding of pollution trends, allowing for more effective interventions.

A shift toward sustainable urban planning, such as increasing green spaces and investing in cleaner public transport, would reduce long-term air pollution.

Additionally, international cooperation and support from global environmental agencies can aid India in its journey to cleaner air, ensuring that economic development does not come at the cost of public health.

For India to address the issue effectively, policymakers must recognize the broader economic implications of pollution.

A clean-air policy is not only a public health mandate but also a strategic economic imperative. With millions of working-age citizens impacted, India’s productivity and healthcare system are under strain.

As such, tackling air pollution could enhance quality of life, drive economic growth, and position India as a global leader in sustainable development.

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The city of Istanbul is offering free public transport to unemployed residents registered with local employment centers, benefiting nearly 237,893 individuals in the initial phase.

Each eligible job seeker will receive 96 free rides over three months, covering up to four trips daily.

This new policy, set to launch by October, is a response to the surging costs of public transport, which have seen a fivefold increase in the past five years due to Turkey’s economic instability and inflationary pressures.

For job seekers in Istanbul, one of the world’s largest urban centers, these rising transit costs have created significant obstacles to securing employment.

Soaring transit costs impact job seekers’ mobility

Since 2018, Istanbul’s single-ride fare has spiked as Turkey’s economic volatility has driven inflation and periodic currency crises, making daily commute costs unbearable for many.

With an official unemployment rate of 8.8% in Turkey—and a broader, seasonally adjusted rate of 27.2% factoring underemployed workers—this initiative could ease one of the primary challenges facing job seekers in Istanbul: affordable access to job markets.

The program targets registered job seekers from regional employment centers and will use digital QR codes for fare redemption, minimizing misuse while streamlining access.

Similar transport subsidies have been trialed globally, yielding varied results.

Research highlights positive correlations between accessible transit and improved employment opportunities, yet results remain mixed.

A 2014 study from Washington, DC, revealed a 19% increase in job interview attendance among job seekers who received transportation subsidies.

Conversely, a 2016 Seattle study found increased transit usage without notable employment gains.

While many programs aim to connect job seekers to employment opportunities, they also encounter obstacles such as limited transit reach and varied job market dynamics.

Global cities pursue tailored solutions for transport equity

Other cities have explored diverse models of transport assistance for job seekers, tailoring policies to meet local needs.

Budapest offers unlimited free transit to all job seekers, while the Australian state of New South Wales provides discounts for a limited period.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s Western Cape focuses exclusively on interview-specific transit support, reflecting different regional approaches to addressing transportation barriers.

Istanbul’s policy goes beyond simply lowering fares; it aims to remove a tangible barrier to job market access in a city where only 17% of jobs are within a 30-minute reach of public transport.

Istanbul’s complex transport infrastructure presents additional hurdles for job seekers.

Although the city’s bus network covers approximately 95% of the metropolitan area, long wait times and inefficient connections, particularly in the outskirts, continue to limit access to jobs and other essential services.

Addressing these issues remains crucial for Istanbul’s long-term accessibility goals, which aim to increase the proportion of jobs reachable by transit to 30% by 2040.

Transit accessibility plays a critical role in economic mobility, especially for low-income residents who rely heavily on public transport and face challenges related to the frequency and timing of services.

While the primary objective is employment accessibility, studies indicate that transit subsidies may also enhance broader quality-of-life aspects.

In Seattle, a related study found participants using free transit for activities beyond job searching, reporting improved well-being and a reduction in health service use.

This unintended benefit underscores the potential for free or subsidized transit to enhance access to healthcare, healthy food options, and recreational opportunities, thereby supporting mental and physical health.

For those with limited means, affordable transport options can open doors to a wider range of life-enriching activities, such as visiting family or engaging in community events, which can, in turn, support their job-seeking efforts.

Will Istanbul’s initiative reshape job market access?

Istanbul’s policy comes amid a global focus on transit equity, with cities striving to make public transportation more accessible and affordable for all residents.

Yet, questions remain regarding the program’s long-term impact on employment outcomes.

By removing the immediate financial barrier of transit costs, Istanbul hopes to increase job accessibility for its unemployed residents, potentially setting a precedent for other large cities facing similar economic pressures.

Whether the free transit initiative translates into sustainable employment gains or merely alleviates financial stress during the job-seeking phase remains to be seen.

As cities around the world grapple with rising living costs and economic challenges, Istanbul’s program signals an important step toward more inclusive and accessible public transit solutions.

This initiative, even with its complexities and potential limitations, highlights the city’s commitment to enhancing employment pathways and supporting its job-seeking population amidst one of Turkey’s most challenging economic periods in recent history.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning about growing economic risks across Asia, pointing to challenges like intensifying trade conflicts, China’s slowing property market, and the potential for global market disruptions.

These factors, compounded by regional vulnerabilities, could destabilize the continent’s economic growth, according to the IMF’s latest regional economic outlook.

With China’s slowdown posing a direct threat to neighboring economies with similar export profiles, the IMF is urging decisive policy action from Beijing to foster a demand-driven recovery and stabilize the region’s outlook.

In its latest projections, the IMF forecasts Asia’s economy to grow by 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, a slight upgrade from its April estimates but still a decline from the 5% growth seen in 2023.

The Fund cautions, however, that risks remain skewed to the downside.

These risks include potential economic shocks from past monetary tightening and the lingering impact of geopolitical tensions, which may hinder global demand and escalate trade costs.

“An acute risk is the escalation in tit-for-tat tariffs among major trade partners,” the report notes, warning that such retaliatory measures would fragment trade relationships and slow economic momentum across Asia.

The China factor

China’s role in this outlook is significant.

The IMF emphasized the need for China to manage its property sector adjustment and boost consumer demand to prevent spillover effects on other economies.

A sharper-than-anticipated downturn in China could reverberate globally, and the IMF has urged Beijing to prioritize policies that support internal demand to buffer against regional and global economic vulnerabilities.

While these challenges shape the economic landscape, international leaders also expressed concerns at the IMF and World Bank’s annual meeting last week about the potential ripple effects of a change in US leadership.

Should Donald Trump return to office, his proposed 10% tariff on all imports, and a staggering 60% on Chinese imports, could severely disrupt global supply chains, analysts warn.

Such tariffs would likely raise trade costs significantly and undermine regional growth.

What about Japan?

The IMF also pointed to Japan, advising it to balance its fiscal policy carefully as it faces its own set of economic pressures.

With Japan’s central bank beginning to raise interest rates, IMF Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan stressed that Japan should fund new spending within existing budgets rather than incur additional debt.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s latest spending package could provide relief for households facing higher costs, but the IMF insists this support must be targeted and fiscally responsible.

On monetary policy, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) faces a delicate balancing act as it begins adjusting rates.

The BOJ has maintained ultra-low rates but signals suggest it may incrementally raise them if Japan approaches its 2% inflation target sustainably.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that rate hikes would proceed cautiously and be driven by inflation data, underscoring the BOJ’s commitment to a gradual, data-dependent approach.

The IMF’s regional forecast sheds light on the complex interplay of risks shaping Asia’s economic trajectory, from China’s property crisis and potential US trade shifts to Japan’s debt strategies amid rising interest rates.

The IMF’s call for targeted fiscal policies and careful monetary adjustments across the region highlights the urgent need for coordinated action to navigate these growing challenges.

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Gold prices recouped some of Thursday’s losses and remained near record levels due to increased safe-haven demand ahead of US elections next week. 

The political uncertainty surrounding the outcome of next week’s elections has spurred haven demand throughout this week. 

Additionally, geopolitical tensions also continued to simmer as reports claimed that Iran was preparing to attack Israel 

Gold prices on COMEX hit a series of new highs this week. The most-active contract on COMEX hit a lifetime high of $2,801.80 per ounce on Wednesday. 

At the time of writing, the December gold contract on COMEX was at $2,762.40 per ounce, up 0.5% from the previous close. 

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, told Fxstreet:

Gold should retain its upward bias and may even flirt with $2,800 in the days ahead, as long as US election risks continue weighing on market sentiment, while Fed rate cut expectations remain intact. 

Increasing safe-haven demand

Increased safe-haven demand for gold during the past couple of weeks has been the main driver for prices. 

In October, prices climbed more than 5%, which is a fourth straight month of gains. Since the start of this year, gold prices on COMEX have jumped over 30%. 

Recent polls showed that former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were locked in a tight battle. The uncertainty over the political scenario was aiding the safe-haven demand for gold. 

Meanwhile, Iran is likely to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US Presidential elections next week, Axios reported. 

The attack is expected to be carried out from Iraq using a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, according to the report. 

Iran and Israel have been engaging with each other over the last month in carrying out drone strikes. Any further escalation in tensions in the region would likely spur more demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. 

Positive US economic data

On Thursday, the US personal consumption expenditure index rose 2.1% every year in September, compared to 2.2% in August. 

On a monthly basis, the PCE index rose 0.2% in line with market expectations. The yearly figure was also in line with the forecasts of analysts. 

The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, jumped 2.7% in the same period, matching August’s rise and above market estimation of 2.6%. 

Additionally, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 fell to 216,000 from 228,000. The figure was below the forecast of 230,000 for the week. 

The positive data indicates that the labor market remains resilient in the US, which could complicate the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut cycle. 

Markets are currently pricing in almost a 100% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting. The Fed had cut interest rates by 50 bps at its September meeting, surprising the market. 

Investors will be waiting for the release of the monthly non-farm payroll data later on Friday. 

Copper experiences steep losses

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose on Friday but declined 3% in October. 

Prices have struggled to break out and breach the psychologically important level of $10,000 per ton, which it had hit in early October.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $9,567.50 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous close.

Prices have been falling since then on concerns over poor demand from China, the top consumer of the red metal. 

On Thursday, China’s purchasing manager index data offered little support to prices. Manufacturing activity in the Asian giant managed to just expand in October. Non-manufacturing activity, however, rose at a slower pace. 

A report from Reuters claimed that China planned to roll out $1.4 trillion in more debt over the coming years, aimed at boosting the economic growth in the country. 

Investors will be waiting for a meeting of China’s National People’s Congress next week for more cues on fiscal stimulus. 

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Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis, has expressed optimism about the potential for the state’s cryptocurrency investments to expand, particularly if Donald Trump is elected president again.

Currently, Florida has approximately $800 million invested in crypto-related assets, and Patronis believes that this amount could increase significantly.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Patronis criticized those who are skeptical about cryptocurrency, asserting that neglecting this asset class is a “mistake.”

He also pointed out Miami’s potential to emerge as the “crypto capital of the world.”

To further capitalize on the growing crypto market, he has suggested that Florida’s retirement system allocate a portion of its funds to digital currencies.

“I’m going to continue to push forward to make sure that we’re doing everything possible to take advantage of this. It’s not emerging; it’s here,” Patronis stated.

He emphasized the importance of maximizing returns for state employees, arguing that failing to consider cryptocurrency as a diversification tool would be a disservice.

Florida is not alone in exploring cryptocurrency investments; states like Wisconsin and New Jersey have also shown interest.

Furthermore, Trump has proposed the idea of creating a national crypto stockpile if he returns to the presidency.

In addition to his support for crypto investments, Patronis expressed concerns regarding the potential implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the US.

He warned against excessive federal government oversight with a centralized currency, stating, “We need to be able to have a hedge against this massive overreach by the federal government with a centralized currency.”

He further remarked on the importance of privacy in consumer transactions, saying,

“I don’t want the federal government to know that my son went to the grocery store to buy a bag of Doritos at 2:15 in the afternoon. We need to have some protections in place.”

Patronis’s comments highlight Florida’s proactive stance in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments while underscoring concerns about regulatory measures in the digital currency space.

Trump celebrates Satoshi’s whitepaper anniversary

On Bitcoin’s 16th anniversary, former US President Donald Trump reiterated his commitment to ending the government’s crackdown on cryptocurrency.

In a message directed at Bitcoin supporters coinciding with the anniversary of the original whitepaper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto, Trump also took a swipe at his political rival, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The former president, who is currently running for the Republican nomination, declared his intention to terminate the “war on crypto” and promote Bitcoin innovation in the United States. Additionally, he reaffirmed his plan to pardon Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, who is currently serving a life sentence.

This comes just days before the US general elections on November 5.

The Republican candidate has actively engaged Bitcoin and crypto supporters, promising to halt government Bitcoin sales and remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris has shown support for emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence, and is committed to protecting digital asset investors.

As Bitcoin adoption and prices rise, supporters believe its success will continue regardless of the election outcome.

Sixteen years after Satoshi’s whitepaper, Bitcoin remains a top-performing asset, with a 192% year-to-date increase, outpacing the S&P 500’s 36% gain.

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