In a direct and forceful rebuttal, US President Donald Trump has moved to shut down a torrent of speculation about his health that reached a fever pitch online, declaring on his social media platform that he has “never felt better” in his life.

The statement on Monday came after a multi-day absence from the public eye ignited a firestorm of unfounded rumors and conspiracy theories about his well-being.

The anatomy of a rumor mill

The online chatter began with a simple observation: after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, the famously ubiquitous president was suddenly nowhere to be seen.

As The Independent reported, an unusually clear weekend schedule and a lack of public appearances fueled a wave of social media speculation.

The flames were inadvertently fanned by his own Vice President, JD Vance.

In an interview with USA Today last week, Vance, while stressing that Trump remains in “incredibly good health,” also stated he was prepared to take over in the event of a “terrible tragedy.”

The remark, intended to convey preparedness, was instead seized upon by online sleuths as a sign of something more ominous.

The speculation quickly metastasized. According to Forbes, questions about the president’s health became a top search on Google, while the phrase “Where is Donald Trump” began trending on X.

The intense rumor cycle only began to subside after Trump was finally spotted on Monday, heading to his Virginia golf course.

The lingering shadow of past health concerns

This is not the first time the president’s health has become a subject of intense public scrutiny.

Last month, images of bruised and discolored hands, visible during his meeting with the South Korean President, sparked similar questions.
The speculation has been fueled by the White House’s own disclosures.

In July, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt revealed that Trump suffers from a chronic vein condition known as chronic venous insufficiency.

She explained that it is a condition where leg veins fail to properly pump blood back to the heart, causing it to pool.

“So what chronic venous insufficiency is, is when those veins and valves don’t work and blood goes backwards down the legs,” Leavitt had said.

A rebuttal and a boast

In his forceful return to the public conversation on Monday, Trump coupled his declaration of good health with a characteristic boast.

In the same Truth Social post, he proclaimed Washington, D.C. to be a “crime free zone,” a reference to his recent and controversial deployment of the National Guard to address what he had termed a “crime emergency.”

The claim, as The Independent noted, stands in contrast to official data showing that violent crime in the capital has been on a downward trend since 2023.

For now, the president has successfully quelled the immediate storm of rumors, but the episode serves as a potent reminder of how quickly questions about his health can ignite a political firestorm.

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The share buyback machine in the United States has never been stronger.

By late August, companies had already announced more than one trillion dollars in repurchases, the fastest pace on record. Executions lived up to expectations.

The numbers are impressive, but investors should ask what they really mean.

Share buybacks are more than a technical detail. They have become one of the dominant forces driving up the equity market, influencing liquidity, valuations, and even the perception of corporate strength.

The flow is powerful today, but it carries risks that are not always obvious.

How big has the wave become

The S&P 500 set a new record in 2024 with $942.5 billion in buybacks.

And that record is already under threat. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, companies spent $293.5 billion, up more than 20% from the prior quarter. The 12-month tally to March touched $999 billion, according to S&P Global.

The activity is highly concentrated. Only 20 companies accounted for nearly half of total repurchases in the first quarter.

Apple alone spent $26.2 billion, Meta $17.6 billion, NVIDIA $15.6 billion, and Alphabet $15.1 billion. JPMorgan bought back $7.5 billion.

The sector breakdown shows that technology leads share buybacks with $80 billion, followed by financials at $59 billion and communication services at $45 billion.

Announcements have been even larger. Apple refreshed its program with $100 billion in May. NVIDIA unveiled a $60 billion authorization in its most recent earnings report.

JPMorgan and Bank of America added $50 billion and $40 billion respectively over the summer.

Birinyi Associates noted that buyback plans topped $1 trillion by August 20, the earliest that milestone has ever been reached. July alone saw $166 billion in new announcements, the highest ever for that month.

Why boards keep spending

The drivers are clear. First, corporate cash flows remain strong. The largest technology groups are generating enormous free cash from cloud, mobile, and increasingly AI.

They are able to fund multibillion-dollar capex programs while still setting aside tens of billions for shareholders.

NVIDIA’s results in August were a big case in point.

Second, the banks regained flexibility after this year’s stress tests. Capital return plans at JPMorgan and Bank of America show that financials are back to being major buyers.

Third, repurchases offset stock-based compensation. S&P points out that only 14% of companies actually cut their diluted share count by more than 4% year-on-year. Much of the spending simply keeps share counts flat against rising option grants.

Fourth, buybacks play a market role. They act as an automatic stabilizer during periods of selling.

When markets fell in April, company programs continued to execute, cushioning the downside. Corporate desks have become the most reliable “dip buyers” in the US market.

The tax overhang

It’s not all good news for share buybacks.

Policy is the one headwind. Since January 2023, repurchases are subject to a 1% excise tax under the Inflation Reduction Act. S&P estimates the levy cut operating earnings per share for the index by about half a percentage point in the first quarter.

That is manageable at current levels, but the administration has proposed raising that rate on certain occasions.

A 2 to 4 percent rate would change behavior at the margin. Boards may shift a portion of distributions toward dividends.

The EPS optics of buybacks would also diminish. The current effect is small, but the trajectory of policy is a variable investors cannot ignore.

Does the bid really make equities safer

There is a common assumption that buybacks provide a floor for the market. There is truth in that, but the support is conditional.

Repurchases are discretionary and pro-cyclical.

They are strongest when profits are high and valuations elevated, and they vanish when earnings contract. In other words, companies buy the most stock at the top of the cycle and the least at the bottom.

That means investors cannot treat buybacks like a bond coupon or dividend stream.

They are not a permanent safety net. In recessions, programs are scaled back quickly to preserve cash. The “liquidity floor” created by buybacks is real today, but it is a mirage in downturns.

Another point is effectiveness. At record stock prices, every dollar spent retires fewer shares.

The EPS benefit of buybacks is shrinking compared to 2022 and 2023. This limits their ability to keep earnings optics climbing when valuation multiples are already stretched.

What investors should really focus on

There are three markers worth monitoring.

The first is actual execution versus authorizations. Announcements make headlines, but they are only capacity. The true market impact comes from the dollars spent each quarter, disclosed in 10-Qs and tracked by S&P.

The second is the blackout cycle. Repurchases dip around earnings releases, reducing flow by roughly 30% versus open windows. Investors often mistake this for structural weakness. In fact, many companies continue buying through pre-programmed 10b5-1 plans, just at a lower rate.

The third is the capex trade-off. AI build-outs are swallowing tens of billions in cash. If margins compress or borrowing costs rise, boards may prioritize investment and balance sheet strength over discretionary buybacks. The moment that shift happens, the buyback bid weakens.

The bullish and the bearish case

From a bullish perspective, buybacks are functioning like private-sector quantitative easing.

The flow is steady, automated, and large enough to dampen volatility. As long as cash flows remain healthy, companies will keep absorbing their own stock, shortening selloffs and prolonging the bull market.

The bearish case is that we are near the peak of buyback effectiveness.

Valuations are high, free cash flow will face pressure from rising capex, and tax risk is not trivial. The buyback bid disappears precisely when investors need it most.

In that sense, 2025 may represent a blow-off top in financial engineering, an era when EPS was flattered by record spending that may not be sustainable.

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Alibaba Group shares surged in Hong Kong trading on Monday, boosted by optimism over its cloud business and improving e-commerce operations.

The stock jumped as much as 19% to HK$137.50 (US$17.64), marking its biggest single-day gain in more than three years. It closed higher by more than 13%.

It was also the top performer on the Hang Seng Index, which rose 2.2%.

The rally followed a 13% surge in the company’s US-listed ADRs on Friday, after Alibaba posted robust quarterly earnings.

Net profit rose 78% year-on-year in the April-June period, driven by strong demand for its cloud computing services and steady performance in retail.

AI drives cloud growth and investor confidence

Cloud revenue rose 26% in the quarter, supported by surging demand for artificial intelligence applications.

Chief Executive Eddie Wu described “AI plus cloud” as one of Alibaba’s two core growth engines, alongside e-commerce.

The results prompted a wave of analyst upgrades.

Daiwa Capital Markets analysts John Choi and Robin Leung said profitability in Alibaba’s quick commerce unit is improving faster than expected, while cloud revenue growth is likely to accelerate as AI adoption scales.

They lifted their Hong Kong target price to HK$180 from HK$170.

Jefferies said Alibaba has achieved its “first-stage goal” in quick commerce by building user growth and consumer mind share.

Nomura analysts raised their ADR price target to US$170 from US$152, noting strength in both e-commerce and cloud.

Quick commerce expansion shows promise but pressures margins

Alibaba’s rapid-delivery service, which delivers orders within an hour, is its latest effort to gain share in China’s on-demand delivery market against rivals JD.com and Meituan.

Analysts believe the segment provides long-term growth potential, though margin pressures are expected in the near term.

Nomura analysts Jialong Shi and Rachel Guo cautioned that while the expansion delivers “much-needed growth,” it could weigh on short-term profitability.

They argued, however, that Alibaba’s strength lies in retail-related quick commerce, which will remain a strategic focus.

Competitive AI race intensifies in China

Alibaba is also pushing forward in artificial intelligence, rolling out upgrades to its open-source video-generating model and launching new agentic AI services and chatbots.

Morgan Stanley analysts described Alibaba as holding “China’s best AI enabler thesis,” suggesting that losses from meal delivery and instant commerce could peak this quarter while cloud continues to grow.

Still, Alibaba faces mounting competition as rivals Baidu and Tencent accelerate their own AI model launches.

Investors are closely watching whether Alibaba can successfully monetize its AI bets while managing margin pressures from quick commerce.

For now, analysts expect quick commerce losses to peak in the September quarter, with AI-driven cloud momentum underpinning earnings growth through the rest of the year.

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In the glittering port city of Tianjin, against the backdrop of a grand international summit overshadowed by the long shadow of American trade wars, a stunning and historic reversal has taken place.

After years of simmering hostility, a bloody border dispute, and deep-seated mistrust, the leaders of the world’s two most populous nations, China and India, have publicly declared a new era of partnership, a calculated diplomatic pivot forged in a shared defiance of Washington.

The landmark meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) summit, was Modi’s first visit to China in seven years.

The symbolism was as powerful as the substance.

From Himalayan peaks to a handshake of peace

This was not a meeting of old friends, but of recent adversaries. The relationship had been in a deep freeze since 2020, when deadly clashes between their troops erupted on their shared Himalayan border, leading to the suspension of all direct flights.

Now, in a dramatic thaw, Modi announced that those flights would resume.

The language used by both leaders signaled a fundamental reset. Xi told his Indian counterpart that China and India should be “partners, not rivals,” urging him to approach the relationship from a “strategic height and long-term perspective.”

Modi, in turn, declared that there was now an “atmosphere of peace and stability” between the two giants.

The shadow of the west: a common grievance

This sudden embrace is not happening in a vacuum. The architect of this unlikely reconciliation is, ironically, US President Donald Trump.

His administration’s decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian goods as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil has fundamentally altered India’s strategic calculus.

With its relationship with Washington facing increasing headwinds, India is actively seeking new and powerful allies.

The presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the same summit underscored this shifting dynamic.

The SCO, a security bloc created by China and Russia as a direct countermeasure to Western alliances like NATO, provided the perfect stage for these leaders to air their common grievances and project a united front.

A city transformed: the spectacle of the summit

While the summit itself is largely symbolic, for the host city of Tianjin, it has been a monumental event.

Banners and billboards celebrating the gathering adorn the city, and at night, massive lightshows have transformed the downtown skyline, with tens of thousands of spectators cramming into the riverside area to witness the spectacle.

The city of more than 13 million has been brought to a near standstill, with roadblocks for visiting motorcades and the suspension of taxi services.

Yet, this has not dampened the enthusiasm of crowds eager to be part of what has been described as a historic meeting.

It is a potent visual for a summit designed to showcase a powerful, non-Western alternative on the world stage, a new center of gravity in a rapidly changing world.

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Gold and silver prices have risen sharply on the first day of September as rate cut hopes fuelled investors’ sentiment on Monday. 

The December gold contract on COMEX hit a record high of $3,556.87 an ounce. The December silver contract on COMEX hit a more than 14-year high of $41.638 an ounce. 

Traders anticipate an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this month, despite persistent signs of inflation.

“The outlook drags the US Dollar (USD) back closer to the August monthly swing high and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal,” Haresh Menghani, editor at FXStreet, said in a report. 

Economic data

In July, the annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, remained unchanged at 2.6%.

Additionally, the core PCE Price Index, excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, saw a modest increase to 2.9% in the reported month, aligning with analysts’ expectations and up from 2.8% in June.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now predicting an 87% probability that the US Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on September 17. 

The data reinforced expectations that the Fed will implement at least two interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

Trump and Fed

Menghani said:

Furthermore, growing concerns about the Fed’s independence turn out to be another factor contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the USD.

Concerns about the Fed’s independence have arisen after US President Donald Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged mortgage fraud. Cook has filed a lawsuit and refused to resign from her position.

Should Cook depart, Trump would gain another appointment to the Fed’s seven-member board, thereby securing a majority for the first time in decades.

The uncertainty surrounding the future of the US central bank also increased safe-haven demand for bullion. 

Thin trading expected

Meanwhile, US markets will be closed on Monday due to the observance of Labor Day.

Ahead of key US macro releases this week, starting with the month and culminating in Friday’s closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, traders may avoid making aggressive directional bets.

Last week, Russia conducted significant attacks on Ukrainian cities, deploying 598 drones and decoys, in addition to 31 missiles. 

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledged retaliation with strikes targeting deep within Russia.

From the air and ground, Israeli forces attacked the suburbs of Gaza City. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, announced the death of Abu Ubaida, spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing.

“This keeps geopolitical risks in play, which turns out to be another factor benefiting the safe-haven Gold and contributing to the momentum,” Menghani added. 

Silver to outshine gold

Last week, a significant shift in gold demand followed Harvard’s endowment fund establishing a substantial position in SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, according to a Kitco.com report. 

In addition to other significant precious metals acquisitions in the second quarter, the Saudi Central Bank’s 13F filing reveals substantial investments. 

The bank invested $30.5 million in iShares Silver Trust and nearly $10 million in the Global X Silver Miners ETF, according to the report.

“There is no question that this is bullish for silver, but important context is needed,” Neils Christensen, editor at Kitco.com said in the report. 

Some analysts contend that Saudi Arabia’s relatively small investment in silver, especially when compared to its tech sector holdings, highlights the metal’s investment potential, suggesting it offers more than just industrial growth opportunities.

Silver continues to attract analysts due to its value proposition compared to gold. 

The gold/silver ratio, despite a significant drop from its April peak of over 104, is still high at more than 86. Historically, this ratio has typically fluctuated between 50 and 60.

“The big disadvantage for silver has been its lack of institutional interest,” Christensen said. 

When funds look to invest in a safe-haven asset, they traditionally turn to gold—the monetary metal of choice for central banks.

Retail investors have traditionally driven silver’s investment appeal, as they are often unable to afford the $3,500 cost of a one-ounce gold coin.

The fact that a sovereign wealth fund now sees value in silver could be a game-changer for the precious metal.

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