Brent crude oil price crashed on Friday amid rising trade tensions, and the downtrend may continue after the latest OPEC+ meeting. It dropped to $62.60 on Friday, down by 25% from its highest level this year.

OPEC+ crude oil production increase

The main Brent crude oil news is that OPEC+ cartel agreed to increase oil production for the third consecutive month. 

They will now increase production by 411,000 barrels a day in July, matching the last two month’s increases. 

These increases are driven by Saudi Arabia’s desire to punish members of the group, like Iran and Kazakhstan. The cartel also wants to satisfy Donald Trump, who has expressed a desire to lower crude oil price and gasoline prices in the US. In a note, an analyst said:

“Fundamentals in the right-here, right-now are strong — inventories are very low. It is a good time for OPEC+ to add barrels to the market, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t.”

Iran talks and Russia sanctions

The next key catalyst for crude oil prices is the ongoing talks with Iran. Trump has expressed concerns to reach a deal with the country, with an announcement expected to happen in June. 

The main issue that is remaining is whether Iran should continue enriching its uranium for civilian use. While Trump is open to that, Israel has warned that it may be forced to make unilateral decisions and bomb them.

A deal with Iran would help the country boost its production and increase oil supply in the market. However, an escalation from Israel would disrupt oil flows. 

The other key crude oil news is that the Trump administration is set to impose additional sanctions on Russia. A bill sponsored by Senator Lindsey Graham would impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy its oil.

The sanctions will also place a 500% sanction on goods Russia ships to the US, and bar US citizens from buying Russian bonds.

Further, crude oil price will react to the escalating trade war between the United States and China. Trump has accused China of not implementing the deal reached in Switzerland. As such, there is a likelihood that the trade war could restart as Trump attempts to shed the ‘Trump Always Chickens Out” tag.

Brent crude oil price forecast

The weekly chart shows that the Brent crude oil price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. It recently crashed below the lower side of the forming descending triangle pattern, a popular bearish continuation sign.

Brent has remained below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the most likely scenario is where Brent ultimately crashes to mid $50s in the coming weeks as JPMorgan analysts predict. 

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Adobe stock price has underperformed the broader market and other companies in the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry like Microsoft, ServiceNow, and Salesforce. It has dropped by over 35% from its highest point last year as concerns about competition and impact of artificial intelligence (AI) remain. 

Competition, AI, and growth concerns

The Adobe share price has come under pressure in the past few months as the company faces a mountain of challenges.

Its biggest challenge is competition from companies like Canva and Figma, which have become multibillion-dollar firms. Canva has a valuation of almost $50 billion, while the recent fundraising placed Figma’s valuation at over $12 billion.

These firms have become big names because of their investments in easy-to-use solutions, emphasis on collaboration, and artificial intelligence services. 

Adobe stock price has also dropped as AI tools disrupt some of its solutions. While the company has invested in AI tools, investors are yet to see the impact in terms of revenue and profitability. 

Analysts and investors are concerned about the impact of AI on some of its services like Photoshop and Dreamweaver. Dreamweaver, which simplifies the website design process, is being disrupted by AI tools like ChatGPT and Grok that can build a website from scratch after a few prompts.

Adobe stock price has also underperformed because of an FTC lawsuit that alleges the company hid fees and prevented customers from cancelling its software easily. 

Further, there are concerns about Adobe’s growth. Its last annual revenue rose to $21.5 billion, up from $19.4 billion.

The most recent numbers showed that Adobe’s revenue rose by 10% in the first quarter to $5.71 billion. Its operating income rose to $2.16 billion, while its cash flow from operations rose to $2.48 billion.

Most of Adobe’s revenue came from the digital media segment, which made $4.23 billion. This business includes the Creative Cloud and Document Cloud businesses, including services like InDesign, Illustrator, and Photoshop. 

The digital experience business includes services like Marketo, Adobe Target, , Journey Optimizier, and Adobe Campaign. 

Read more: Adobe stock price triangle pattern points to big moves ahead

ADBE earnings and valuation

The next key catalyst for the Adobe stock price will be its earnings, which will come out in June. 

Wall Street analysts anticipate that the revenue rose by 9.2% in the first quarter to $5.8 billion. The most optimistic analyst sees its revenue coming in at almost $6 billion.

Analysts also expect that its second-quarter revenue will be $5.8 billion, a 8.65% increase. The annual revenue is expected to be $23.46 billion and $25.72 billion, respectively. 

Analysts also believe that Adobe stock price is cheap. The average stock forecast is $488, up from the current $380. 

It has a net income and a free cash flow margin of 30% and 37%, and an annual growth rate of about 10%. This gives it a rule of 40 metric in the range of 40% and 47%, making it fairly valued. 

Adobe stock price analysis

The daily chart shows that the ADBE share price bottomed at $332.98 in April and then bounced back to over $400 today. It has moved above the upper side of the descending channel.

The stock has formed a bullish flag pattern and moved above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The most likely scenario is where the Adobe share price rebounds and hits the psychological point at $500, up by 20% from the current level.

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The USD/CNY exchange rate retreated from the year-to-date high of 7.3500 on April 10 to a low of 7.20 as traders focused on the trade relations between China and the United States. 

US and China trade relations

The US and China have been on a conflict since Donald Trump became president. One of his first actions was to add tariffs on Chinese goods, a move that he believes will help to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries.

The crisis escalated on the so-called “Liberation Day”, when he imposed 34% tariffs on Chinese goods. In the aftermath, the conflict escalated and tariffs surged to 145%, while China brought its levies to 125%.

These concerns waned in May after US and Chinese officials met in Switzerland and decided to cool things down. They reduced tariffs on each other and agreed to reset the relationship.

Recently, however, there are signs that the crisis is escalating again, as the Trump administration has made unilateral decisions. It has announced export controls on key sectors, including aviation. And Marco Rubio plans to expel thousands of Chinese students from the US. 

All these issues are having an impact on both economies. Data released on Saturday showed that the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 in April to 49.5 in May, while the non-manufacturing figure fell from 50.4 to 50.3. 

However, there are signs that the Chinese economy will do well over time as it focuses on doing business with other countries. Also, China is adapting well to technology curbs, with companies like Huawei building high-quality chips.

USD to CNY key data to watch this week

There will be several important macro data from the United States and China this week. The first one will come out on Tuesday, when Caixin will publish the latest manufacturing PMI data.

S&P Global and the ISM will release their US manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday. These numbers will provide more color on the state of the American economy as tariffs continue. 

The most important data will be related to the US labor market. Analysts expect the data to show that the US economy created 110,000 jobs in May, a big jump from the previous month’s 62,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Analysts expect the data to reveal that the economy added 130k jobs, down from 177k in April, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.

USD/CNY technical analysis

USD/CNY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to CNY exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few weeks. It formed a double-top pattern at 7.3318, and has now moved below the neckline at 7.2185. 

The pair has also formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed each other. Therefore, it will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at 7.1200.

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The USD/CAD exchange rate has crashed this year as the US dollar index (DXY) has plunged from $110 earlier this year to $99. It has dropped from 1.4790 on February 3 to the current 1.3738. 

Canadian economy at risk amid Trump steel tariffs

The USD/CAD pair retreated on Friday as investors remained concerned about the trade relations between the US and Canada. 

These relations could worsen this month after Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. These tariffs will now rise from the current 25% to 50% as he seeks to cushion American steel workers. 

Analysts believe that the Chinese economy could be the most exposed as the country is the biggest supplier of the two metals to the US. Canada accounts for about a quarter of all US steel tariffs and about half of aluminium. 

These tariffs will have a major impact on the Canadian economy. The steel sector employs over 23,000 Canadians directly and 100,000 indirectly, while the aluminum sector employs thousands more. 

Analysts anticipate that the Canadian economy will be affected this year. Data released last week showed that the economy expanded by 2.2% in the first quarter as exporters sought to get ahead of tariffs. 

In a recent note, analysts at the IMF downgraded the Canadian economic forecast. It downgraded the economy by 0.6% this year and 0.4% in 2026, citing the impact of tariffs. It expects the economy to grow by 1.4% and 1.6% in these two years.

Bank of Canada and Fed divergence

The USD/CAD exchange rate has reacted to the ongoing divergence between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. 

The BoC has been in a rate-cutting cycle in the past few months, moving them from 5.5% to 2.75%. It paused the rate cut in May, and the recent strong GDP number means that it may pause again in June. 

The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, has maintained status quo this year despite rising pressure from Trump to cut rates. Trump made the case for cuts directly to Jerome Powell in a meeting at the White House last week.

The Fed has insisted that it will not cut rates until it sees that inflation is falling towards the 2% target. While recent data showed that inflation has fallen, Fed officials expect tariffs to push inflation higher. 

Looking ahead, the next important catalyst for the USD/CAD pair will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. It will also react to any trade development between the US and Canada.

USD/CAD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD/CAD exchange rate has pulled back from the year-to-date high of 1.4790 to 1.3738. It has recently crashed below the key support at 1.4148, the lowest swing on February 15.

The pair has even formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. It has moved below the support at 1.3756, the lowest swing on May 7, and a level where it formed a double-bottom pattern. 

Therefore, the USD/CAD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next support at 1.3600. 

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Bitcoin price performed strongly in May, jumping to a record high of $111,900. At its highest point, it was up by over 50% from its lowest point in April, when Donald Trump unveiled his retaliatory tariffs. This BTC forecast looks at what to expect in June.

Bitcoin recap for May

May was a good month for Bitcoin in a few areas. First, Wall Street investors continued to pump money into BTC during the month. The net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs jumped by over $5.2 billion, while the total value traded during the month jumped to over $73 billion. 

May was Bitcoin’s best month since January, when the net inflows jumped by $5.25 billion. The surge in inflows brought the cumulative inflows to over $45 billion, making Bitcoin the most successful ETF launches ever.

For example, the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) now has over $70 billion in assets under management, 18 months after its launch. In contrast, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has less than $100 billion in assets, 21 years since its launch. 

The other big theme in May was the continued Bitcoin purchases by companies, a move that could accelerate following Strategy’s purchases. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired thousands of coins, bringing its total holdings to over 580,235. 

Twenty One, a company formed between Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and Softbank, is acquiring Bitcoins worth over $3 billion. It plans to go public as a Bitcoin holding company. 

Trump Media, the parent company of TruthSocial, raised $2.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin. GameStop, the game store company, also started to accumulate Bitcoin as we recommended a few months ago.

The other big Bitcoin news in May was key events like Consensus Toronto and Token2049 in Dubai. 

BTC price analysis for June

Bitcoin’s price will likely continue doing well in June because of the soaring demand and falling supply. The supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has continued falling, moving from over 3.1 million in 2020 to 1.2 million today. 

More companies will likely continue acquiring Bitcoins this month, which will help boost its price.

The risk, however, is that June is usually one of the worst months for Bitcoin because of the start of the summer season. The average Bitcoin return in June is usually minus 0.50%. 

The other risk is that the trade war between the US and other countries will continue, leading to more volatility. Also, the Federal Reserve may insist that it will not cut rates soon as inflation remains stubbornly high.

Bitcoin price analysis

Technicals suggest that the BTC price has more upside to go this month as it has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, with the ongoing retreat being part of the handle section. This cup has a depth of about 32%, meaning that the target price is about $143,000.

Bitcoin remains above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Therefore, the most likely scenario is where BTC price rises and hits at least $120,000 this month. A drop below the support at $100,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

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