Plug Power (PLUG) stock price went parabolic on Monday, soaring by over 20% and reaching its highest level since July 18. It has now soared by over 55% from its lowest level this year as traders continued to focus on the US election.

Plug Power and the US election

Plug Power and other clean energy companies have done well in the past few weeks as investors watch out for the upcoming general election in the US.

This election could have big consequences for the industry as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have different views of clean energy.

Harris has made the climate a major focus of her administration, while Trump is a big promoter of fossil fuels. 

Therefore, Plug Power and companies like SunRun have done well as investors watch polls, which show that the election will be close. 

Data by the New York Times shows that the two are virtually tied in most swing states, making the election hard to predict.

Another data by Polymarket shows that Harris is closing the gap in the prediction market. Therefore, the Plug Power stock price will likely continue rising, albeit briefly if she wins the election. 

However, the reality is that companies are affected by more things than politics. For example, in theory, companies like Plug Power, SunPower, SunRun, and Enphase should be thriving under Biden, who introduced several friendly policies like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Plug Power even received funds from the government, helping it to avoid raising cash from investors or from debt. 

The reality, however, is that most of these firms have dropped sharply under Biden, with Plug Power falling by over 96% from its highest point this year. Also, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) has retreated by 58% from the 2021 highs.

Read more: Constellation Energy stock soars on landmark power purchase agreement with Microsoft

Tailwinds ahead

In addition to a potential Harris win, the Plug Power stock rose as investors focused on the rising energy demand in the US as companies like Microsoft and Amazon invest in data centers. 

Some of these firms have already inked deals with independent power producers like Constellation, NuScale, and Oklo, that focus on nuclear energy. 

On Monday, the FERC rejected a deal by Talen Energy to provide nuclear energy to Amazon to power its data centers.

Therefore, some analysts believe that hydrogen power will see robust demand from data center companies in the coming years. If this happens, Plug Power will be in a better position because of its strong market share in the industry.

The other notable Plug Power tailwind is that the Federal Reserve will likely continue cutting interest rates this week. Cash intensive companies like PLUG do well when the Fed slashes interest rates.

Read more: Plug Power stock is risky, but a short squeeze can’t be ruled out

Earnings ahead

The Plug Power stock price also jumped as investors focused on the upcoming third-quarter earnings, which will provide more color on its business progress. 

The most recent results showed that its revenue dived sharply in the second quarter as the sale of equipment and related infrastructure waned. Its quarterly revenue fell from $260 million to $143 million as equipment sales plunged from $216 million to $76 million.

Plug Power’s half-year revenue dropped from $470 million to $263 million. Consequently, the half-year loss jumped to $558 million, while the quarterly figure was $262 million. The company blamed strategic investments and market dynamics. Notably, the firm said that its hydrogen margins in Georgia continued to improve. 

Plug Power believes that its annual revenue will be between $825 million and $925 million this year, helped by its electrolyzer and cryogenic orders. The lower side of the estimate will be lower than the $880 million it made last year. 

Data compiled by Yahoo Finance shows that analysts expect Yahoo Finance’s third-quarter revenues to be $211 million and its full-year figure to be $825 million. However, it is worth noting that Plug Power has a long record of missing analysts’ estimates.

The challenge for the company, however, is that the company is still burning cash and its balance sheet is not all that good. Its cash and equivalents fell to $62 million, down from $135 million from the same period last year. It ended the quarter with $222 million in restricted cash and $940 million in inventories.

Read more: Plug Power plummets 15% amid $200 million stock offering: Should you buy?

Plug Power stock price analysis

PLUG chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the PLUG share price has remained under pressure in the past few months. It bottomed at $1.61 in September and has rebounded to $2.51.

The stock has risen above the key point at $2.27, its lowest points in January and April last year. 

Therefore, there are signs that the stock may have bottomed, meaning that it could surge to the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point at $4.40, which is about 74% above the current level. 

The bullish view will be invalidated if the stock drops below the year-to-date low of $1.61. 

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Apple Inc. has put forward a nearly $10 million investment proposal to expand its manufacturing presence in Indonesia, aiming to overturn a ban on sales of its latest iPhone.

Sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the $10 million plan involves collaborating with Apple’s existing network of suppliers to establish a factory in Bandung, southeast of Jakarta.

This facility would produce accessories and components for Apple devices.

Navigating regulatory hurdles

This proposal comes in response to the Indonesian Ministry of Industry’s decision last month to block a sales permit for the iPhone 16.

The ministry cited Apple’s failure to meet a 40% domestic content requirement for smartphones and tablets.

The ministry is currently reviewing Apple’s proposal, which remains subject to change, and a decision is expected soon, as per reports.

However, neither Apple nor the Ministry of Industry offered comment on the matter.

iPhone 16 ban: a pattern of protectionism

The iPhone 16 ban underscores the Indonesian government’s increasing pressure on international companies to enhance local manufacturing, reflecting a protectionist stance under President Prabowo Subianto.

Similar measures have affected other tech giants, including Google, whose Pixel phones also face a sales ban due to insufficient local investment.

This approach echoes tactics employed by the previous administration under President Joko Widodo, which last year blocked ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok, ultimately leading to a $1.5 billion investment by the company in a joint venture with Indonesian e-commerce platform Tokopedia.

Weighing the costs and benefits

Apple currently lacks independent factories in Indonesia, relying instead on local suppliers for components and finished goods, as is common practice for multinational corporations.

The proposed $10 million investment would represent a relatively modest expenditure for Apple to gain broader access to Indonesia’s substantial consumer market of approximately 278 million people, a demographic largely comprised of tech-savvy individuals under 44.

While this investment might be seen as a victory for Indonesia, such assertive tactics risk discouraging other companies from expanding their presence in the country, potentially undermining President Prabowo’s efforts to attract foreign investment and stimulate economic growth.

Shortcomings and inconsistencies

According to the Indonesian government, Apple’s current investment of $95 million (1.5 trillion rupiah) through developer academies falls short of its 1.7 trillion rupiah commitment.

Officials have also pressured e-commerce platforms Tokopedia and TikTok to remove iPhone 16 listings, threatening legal action.

Indonesia’s trade policies have been characterized by inconsistency.

Earlier this year, import restrictions on a wide range of products, from electronics to tires and chemicals, sparked significant backlash from the business community, including companies with established manufacturing operations in the country, such as LG Electronics, which faced difficulties importing essential components.

Despite the government’s emphasis on boosting domestic manufacturing, the sector has struggled, with its contribution to GDP declining from 21.1% in 2014 to 18.7% last year.

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Nikola (NKLA) stock price has imploded as the company continues to face commercialization and balance sheet concerns. It has crashed by 87% this year and is trading at its lowest level on record, giving it a market cap of over $200 million. 

Nikola stock and the future of hydrogen vehicles

The auto industry is going through major changes as the decarbonization trend continues. In the passenger sector, companies like Tesla, BYD, and Rivian have continued to ship thousands of vehicles each quarter. 

The challenge, however, has been in the trucking industry, which is an important part of the American economy. 

Unlike passenger vehicles, trucks carry substantially heavier products, making electric trucks less viable. Years after Tesla started shipping its semi truck, the company has only shipped a handful of them.

Nikola is aiming to become a leading player in the trucking industry by focusing on hydrogen trucks. Most analysts believe that hydrogen trucks would be a better alternative to electric trucks because of the energy density.

The challenge, however, is that these trucks are highly expensive compared to diesel trucks. Data shows that the average hydrogen truck sells for over $350,000, much higher than the average diesel truck that costs less than $200,000.

Additionally, the cost of filling hydrogen trucks is much higher than diesel. In an industry with low margins like transport, most people are opting for the diesel trucks that they are familiar with.

Most importantly, the infrastructure needed to deliver hydrogen energy is not available. As a result, Nikola has come up with HYLA, a modular solution for its customers in places like California and Ontario.

All these factors, coupled with the cost involved, explain why the Nikola stock has imploded, costing investors billions of dollars. 

Read more: Nikola stock: potential millionaire maker or another Fisker?

Nikola has made some progress

Still, despite the challenges, Nikola has made some progress as evidenced by its most recent financial results. 

It delivered 88 trucks in the third quarter, a 22% increase from the previous quarter. Most of these vehicles were sold to fleet companies, who are likely experimenting on them. Some of its recent clients are companies like Diageo and DHL.

Nikola hopes to deliver between 300 and 350 hydrogen trucks this year, a move that will push its revenues higher.

The quarterly results showed that revenues jumped to $25 million, a trend that may continue in the coming months. 

This growth, however, came at a big cost as the company recorded a gross loss of $61 million and a net loss of almost $200 million. 

While these loss figures were better than in 2023, they mean that the company will need adequate funds going forward.

Nikola ended the last quarter with $198 million in cash and equivalents, down from $464 million in December, meaning that the cash burn has accelerated. It had inventories of $76 million and $3.3 million in restricted cash and equivalents. 

These funds will likely not be enough to keep the company running for a long time. Nikola still has some avenues to raise money. 

For example, it can still turn to the Department of Energy (DoE) as it did last year. Odds of these DoE financings during a potential Trump administration are low.

Also, it can raise funds by selling convertible bonds. The company can also sell some of its shares, a move that will continue to dilute its shareholders. Besides, the number of outstanding shares has jumped from less than 1 million in 2020 to 55 million today.

The challenge is that an ATM raise seems highly difficult since Nikola is now valued at over $200 million. It will likely need more money than that to continue as a going concern. 

We have seen this situation before. A good example of this is Rivian, a company that makes highly popular SUVs and trucks in the United States. Rivian’s annual revenue has risen from $55 million in 2021 to over $5 billion in the trailing twelve months.

Despite this growth and popularity, the company has continued making losses and has had to be bailed out by Volkswagen. It has also diluted its shareholders in the past few years. This means that Nikola will continue facing similar challenges.

Nikola stock price analysis

NKLA chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the NKLA share price has been in a strong bearish trend and is at its lowest level on record. It has dropped below the important support at $3.75, its lowest level on October 18.

The stock has crashed below all moving averages, meaning that bears are in control. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued falling.

Therefore, the outlook for the NKLA share price is bearish, with the next point to watch will be at $2. However, with its short interest being at 23%, there are chances that the stock may have a short squeeze soon.

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As the US presidential election approaches, Japan’s markets are closely monitoring the potential impact on the yen and Tokyo stock market.

According to a Bloomberg report, analysts suggest that a Kamala Harris victory could strengthen the yen, while a Donald Trump win might support Japanese stocks but lead to further yen depreciation.

However, the risk of a contested election result leaves Japanese markets bracing for a turbulent period, with heightened volatility likely across key asset classes.

Harris victory seen as support for yen, easing pressure on imports

Should Kamala Harris win, she is expected to maintain continuity in US economic policy, focusing on a gradual reduction in inflation and promoting a stable economic environment.

Such a scenario could lead to the Federal Reserve easing interest rates, a move that may narrow the yield gap between Japan and the US and, consequently, support the yen.

Analysts anticipate that the yen could appreciate under Harris, with Yujiro Goto, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura Securities Co., citing in the Bloomberg report that “the market will react with lower yields and a weaker dollar, and dollar-yen will likely test the 150 level.”

This appreciation would alleviate Japan’s import costs and possibly reduce inflationary pressures on essential goods.

On Tuesday, the yen showed some resilience, reversing a portion of its earlier losses as the dollar-yen exchange rate inched higher by 0.2% to 152.47.

The shift occurred as investors adjusted their expectations around a Republican win.

Japanese stocks, meanwhile, saw a cautious rebound with the broad Topix index rising 0.8% after a prior dip, though the market remains alert to the election’s outcome.

Trump win may drive short-term boost to stocks but deepen yen decline

Conversely, if Donald Trump were to win, his policies favouring tax cuts and deregulation could stimulate the US economy, encouraging dollar demand and favourably impacting Japanese exporters reliant on a robust American market.

In this scenario, the dollar-yen exchange rate could rise further, with Goto suggesting that “if there’s a red sweep, dollar-yen may test a rise above 155.”

Such movement could bring the yen dangerously close to its 38-year low, marked in July, intensifying concerns over Japan’s import costs.

For Japanese stocks, Trump’s return could lead to initial gains, particularly for companies focused on exports.

Masahiko Loo, senior strategist at State Street Global Advisors, notes that “the initial reaction will be a stronger dollar and higher share prices.”

However, Loo cautions that any benefit might be short-lived, especially if Trump revives his stance on imposing tariffs on foreign goods, a move that would likely hurt Japanese manufacturers dependent on American demand.

Tariff threat looms large for Japan’s exports and broader economy

One of the most significant risks of a Trump win would be his potential imposition of new tariffs on major trading partners.

Japan’s economy could take a hit if the US administration levies additional tariffs on Japanese goods.

Trump has floated a policy of placing 10-20% duties on all imports, which would significantly affect Japan’s export-heavy sectors, including automotive, machinery, and electronics.

Such a move would be reminiscent of 2018, when US-China trade tensions escalated under Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods.

Chisa Kobayashi, a Japan equity strategist at UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management, warns that “when Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, all Japanese shares came under pressure regardless of their exposure to China.”

If other nations reciprocate with tariffs, Japan’s export market could see sustained losses, slowing economic growth across the board.

Markets prepare for potential election delays and price swings

A final layer of complexity arises from the risk of a delayed or contested US election result.

With Harris and Trump polling closely, the uncertainty could lead to short-term market disruptions.

Analysts expect a period of high volatility as Japanese investors and traders respond to election developments.

Japan’s dollar-yen pair, heavily traded during Asian market hours, could be especially volatile.

According to recent trading data, the one-week implied volatility for the dollar against the yen has risen sharply, reaching levels last seen in August amid heightened speculation over Bank of Japan rate moves.

In such a scenario, Japanese authorities may consider verbal intervention if the dollar-yen rate escalates rapidly, a measure used to calm markets.

Meanwhile, Japanese shares could also see fluctuations influenced by the recent changes in Japan’s domestic political scene, where the ruling coalition’s loss of a majority in the lower house sparked further volatility.

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Peloton (PTON) stock price has staged a strong comeback in the past few months after it reported better-than-expected financial results and announced management changes. It rebounded to a high of $8.92 last week, its highest swing since July 2023, and 220% higher than the year-to-date low.

Peloton stock recovers amid positive hype

Peloton Interactive is one of the top fallen angels in corporate America. Once worth almost $50 billion, its valuation dropped to nearly $1 billion as concerns about its growth and future continued.

Recently, however, the stock has bounced back, with rumours spreading that it could become an acquisition target. 

Most of the recovery happened after it published encouraging financial results and a new Chief Executive Officer (CEO). 

Peter Stern, the incoming CEO, has been in corporate America for years. He is the president of integrated services at Ford, and before that, he was the head of marketing for Apple. He has worked in Time Warner, where he spent 12 years.

Therefore, analysts are optimistic that he will help to turn Peloton around and make it a more profitable entity. 

The most recent financial results showed that Peloton ended the last quarter with 6.2 million members, a drop from 6.4 million in the same period last year. Its ending paid connected fitness subscriptions dropped by 2% to 2.9 million.

Peloton Interactive’s revenue dropped by 2% to $586 million, while the gross margin increased from 47.9% to 51.8%, helped by higher prices of its equipment like treadmill and bikes.

Most notably, the company is now on a path towards profitability as its net loss moved to $0.9 million from $159 million in the same quarter last year. The management hopes that it will save $200 million by the end of the new fiscal year. It will do that by slashing 400 workers and reducing costs like marketing and contractors.

Therefore, there are signs that the management is now prioritizing profitability over growth, which investors have always demanded.

Read more: Peloton stock mixed after Costco deal, here’s what the market is overlooking

This turnaround strategy mirrors that of Carvana, a company whose stock has surged in the past few years. 

Peloton’s advantage is that it has grown to become the biggest player in the connected fitness industry, with a 74% market share. Its other top competitors are the likes of Echelon, iFit, Bowflex, and Tonal. 

More metrics show that its user base is still highly active, with the growth in workouts rising by 63%.

Challenges remain

Peloton still faces challenges ahead. A key issue is that it still makes a lot of money selling its connected devices. 

The most recent results showed that its connected fitness product revenue dropped by 12% to $159 million. This trend will likely continue in the coming years since existing buyers rarely upgrade their equipment.

Therefore, Peloton will likely need to continue growing the number of its subscribers, a trend that is not moving in the right direction. As mentioned, the ending paid connected fitness subscriptions dropped by 2% to $2.9 million. 

The other issue is that, despite the cost savings, its revenue growth is expected to remain weak going forward. Its next revenues are expected to be $660 million, while the annual figure will be $2.47 billion, down by 8.70% from last year. Its revenue in the next financial year is expected to be $2.49 billion, just a small increase. 

The other concern is that Peloton is still an overvalued company that has a forward EV to EBITDA metric of 15, higher than the sector median of 10.14. This means that it will need to continue doing well to justify its valuation.

Analysts are now bullish about Peloton stock. In a note this week, an analyst at Bank of America moved from a sell to a buy, citing it strong cash savings, which will see it making $300 million in 2025. That is a higher number since the management’s guidance was between $240m and $290m. 

Other analysts from the likes of BMO, Bernstein, Truist, and Macquarie have also maintained positive views of the company.

Read more: David Einhorn calls Peloton undervalued—here’s why I’m still not buying

Peloton stock price analysis

PTON chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the PTON share price bottomed at $2.72 in May, where it formed a double-bottom pattern. 

It has now moved slightly higher than this pattern’s neckline at $7.15, its highest swing on January 2nd.

Peloton shares have also moved above the 50-day moving average, meaning that bulls are in control.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising. Therefore, there are signs that the stock will continue doing well in the coming months. If this happens, the next point to watch will be the psychological point at $10, which is 30% higher than the current level. 

A break above that level will bring the next target at $17.80, its highest point in January 2023, which is 135% higher than the current levels.

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