The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.76 per USD in November, fueled by hawkish expectations for the Brazilian central bank and anticipation of major fiscal spending cuts from the government.

Brazil’s Finance Ministry updated its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, slightly higher than the previous 3.2% estimate, with inflation expected to hover near the upper end of the central bank’s target range.

Finance Minister Haddad confirmed that the final package of spending cuts, pending a few adjustments with the Ministry of Defense, aligns with the government’s economic framework to maintain fiscal sustainability and credibility.

While these fiscal measures aim to improve public finances and bolster confidence in the real, the currency faces ongoing pressure from a broader risk asset selloff.

Additionally, the stronger US dollar, driven by concerns over potential tariffs under a second Trump presidency and a less-dovish Federal Reserve, adds to the real’s challenges.

Brazil’s fiscal measures

The government’s budgetary policies are meant to tighten the fiscal belt while simultaneously signaling a commitment to fiscal sustainability.

The Brazilian administration hopes to restore investor confidence by lowering government spending, especially given the persistent problems faced by global economic uncertainty.

However, the success of these fiscal policies is primarily dependent on the government’s capacity to control inflation and stimulate growth in the face of external economic pressures.

Despite good domestic developments, the Brazilian real continues to face major headwinds. A larger selloff in risk assets has weighed on the euro, worsened by the US dollar’s gain.

Concerns about tariffs related to a potential second Trump presidency, as well as the Federal Reserve’s less dovish posture, have made developing market currencies, notably the Brazilian real, susceptible.

Global investors are becoming increasingly apprehensive, causing a flight to safer assets while international trade rules remain uncertain.

The increasing US dollar, spurred by these reasons, poses a significant threat to the real, which is struggling to establish its foothold in the competitive global currency market.

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The S&P 500 is on track to close its second consecutive year with over 20% gains, and this positive momentum is expected to continue into 2025.

According to BMO strategist Brian Belski, the benchmark index could reach 6,700 by the end of next year, representing a potential 14% upside.

However, for investors seeking alternatives with a history of outperforming the S&P 500, two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) stand out: the JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity ETF (JREU) and the Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF (GSPY).

JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity ETF (JREU)

This London-listed exchange-traded fund is accessible to most European investors and has outperformed the S&P 500 every year since 2019.

It’s on track to beat the benchmark index this year as well.

JREU manages a total of about $9.41 billion in assets and taps on a strategy called “research enhanced indexing”.

What it means is that the fund favors several small bets over a few big ones.

The overall composition of this ETF mirrors the benchmark but the REI strategy enables it to deliver excess returns. JPMorgan US Research Enhanced Index Equity fund is currently up more than 26% versus the start of 2024.

Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF (GSPY)

This actively managed New York-listed exchange-traded fund is available for US investors via most brokers.

It was founded in 2021 and has outperformed the benchmark ever since.  

GSPY invests in every stock included in the S&P 500 but with a notable tweak.

It spends more on the S&P 500 stocks that it thinks are cheaper and less on others that it estimates to be more expensive.

This strategy enables it to deliver better returns for its investors than the S&P 500.

A few of the top holdings of Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF include Apple Inc., Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google.

Why pick ETFs over individual stocks?

Investing in ETFs saves you from the hassle of picking individual stocks and managing your portfolio.

They typically hold a basket of stocks, reducing the impact of any single investment on your overall portfolio.

This diversification helps spread the risk.

Additionally, investing in individual stocks can incur high transaction fees, especially if you’re an active trader.

Exchange-traded funds lower such costs for you as well.

ETFs get you exposure to a wide range of sectors while also offering high liquidity.

This means you can buy and sell these funds throughout the trading day at market prices.

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A seismic shift is underway in the social media landscape.

Following the US presidential election, nearly a million users have abandoned Elon Musk’s X (formerly Twitter) for the burgeoning platform Bluesky.

This exodus, dubbed the “X-odus” online, has seen a surge of journalists, actors, musicians, and other prominent figures flocking to Bluesky, propelling it to the top of app download charts on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.

Bluesky now boasts an impressive 19 million users, a dramatic increase from just 10 million in early September.

The political catalyst behind the exodus

The mass migration is largely attributed to Elon Musk’s open support for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, including the formation of a super PAC that poured nearly $200 million into the election effort.

Many X users had vowed to leave the platform if Trump returned to power.

The subsequent announcement of Musk’s cabinet appointment in the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency alongside Vivek Ramaswamy further fueled the exodus, with some users expressing concerns about X potentially becoming an echo chamber for right-wing viewpoints.

Beyond politics: data privacy concerns fuel the fire

However, the migration isn’t solely driven by political factors.

A recent update to X’s terms and conditions, effective November 15th, allows the platform to utilize user-generated content, including posts, photos, and videos, even from private accounts, to train its AI chatbot model, Grok.

The updated terms explicitly state: “You agree that this license includes the right for us to (i) analyze text and other information you provide…for use with and training of our machine learning and artificial intelligence models, whether generative or another type.”

This change has raised significant data privacy concerns among users, further contributing to the exodus.

What is Bluesky and how does it offer an alternative?

Bluesky, initially conceived as an internal project by former X CEO Jack Dorsey in 2019, transitioned from an invite-only platform to a public entity in February of that year.

In 2021, it became an independent company under the leadership of CEO Jay Graber.

Bluesky offers users greater control over their feeds by allowing them to choose the algorithms that determine content visibility.

It also utilizes website addresses as handles, promoting authenticity and potentially mitigating the bot activity that plagues X.

This feature also offers a potential verification tool for public figures and journalists.

Can Bluesky handle the influx?

The sudden surge in users presents a significant challenge for Bluesky.

The platform recently reported receiving 42,000 moderation reports in a single 24-hour period, compared to 360,000 for the entirety of 2023.

The Bluesky team is actively recruiting new moderators and has implemented email verification for new signups to manage the influx and maintain platform integrity.

They have also appealed to users to assist in reporting troll, spam, and scam accounts.

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All eyes are on Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) this week as it warms up to report its quarterly earnings on November 20^th.

The consensus is for this artificial intelligence behemoth to double its data center business in Q3.

Nvidia is broadly expected to earn 74 cents a share on $33.2 billion in revenue in its third financial quarter which translates to about an 83% year-on-year increase in its top as well as the bottom line.

So, the chipmaker looks all set to report another solid quarter after market close on Wednesday.

But could it be the catalyst Nvidia stock needs to further extend its 200% year-to-date rally? Fortunately, analysts sure seem to think so.

Nvidia stock down on concerns of Blackwell delays

Nvidia shares are in the red this morning following a report that its latest AI chip tends to overheat in servers.

Still, Vivek Arya – a Bank of America analyst remains super bullish on NVDA as Blackwell issues will likely prove to be temporary only. He’s convinced the demand for Nvidia solutions will remain strong in 2025.

He even dubbed Nvidia stock “undervalued” on a price-to-cash-flow basis at close to $140 in a recent interview.

“They’re a system integrator at this point. They’re selling complete racks with all the computing, networking, optical resources, memory, everything thrown in,” he added at the time.

The multinational based out of Santa Clara, California is broadly expected to improve its gross margin to 75% in Q3.

Nvidia shares now pay a dividend as well which adds up to the list of reasons to have them in your portfolio.

NVDA could sink following the release of Q3 earnings

Vivek Arya finds it premature to worry about a potential slowdown in AI scaling – a sentiment that Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh echoed on CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange” on Monday.

I think Nvidia will remind investors once again that the AI revolution is alive and well this week.

He agreed a stronger US dollar under the Trump administration could be a headwind for multinationals but said NVDA “will show continued strong demand for their Blackwell chip” next year.

Nvidia will then launch Rubin to significantly enhance AI computing power in early 2026.

So, Nvidia stock remains well-positioned for the long term, as per Kevin Mahn.

Analysts currently expect Nvidia to guide for $37 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter on November 20^th.

It’s worth mentioning, however, that Nvidia shares could temporarily sink after the release even if it comes in ahead of expectations for the quarter as well as the future outlook.

The Nasdaq-listed firm topped quarterly estimates and issued a better-than-expected guidance in August. Still, its stock price lost as much as 6% following the earnings report.

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Top Justice Department officials have decided to ask a judge to force Alphabet’s Google to divest its Chrome browser, in what is likely to mark a significant antitrust escalation, according to a report by Bloomberg.

This move follows Judge Amit Mehta’s ruling that found Google had illegally monopolized the search market, sparking remedies that could redefine how tech giants operate.

Chrome’s dominance is crucial for Google, serving as a strategic tool to collect user data and funnel traffic to its products, such as the AI platform Gemini.

Such data fuels Google’s targeted advertising, which underpins its multi-billion-dollar business.

The DOJ’s aim is to disrupt this vertical integration that critics say entrenches Google’s power, stifling innovation and competition.

Chrome currently controls 61% of the US browser market, positioning it as a key asset in the proposed remedy.

Data licensing and uncoupling Android OS

In addition to recommending a sale of Chrome, antitrust officials also plan to recommend Mehta to impose data licensing requirements, the report said.

This mandate could reshape the AI landscape by giving rival tech firms access to Google’s “click and query” data and search result syndication.

Allowing competitors to leverage this information could bolster their search algorithms and enhance AI development.

Currently, Google syndicates search results with limitations, such as preventing mobile application use.

The proposed licensing rules would eliminate such barriers, enabling smaller search engines and startups to build a stronger foothold.

Officials will also propose that Google uncouple its Android operating system from core services, including its search engine and the Google Play app store.

This would dismantle the tight integration that has been central to Google’s strategy, potentially altering the smartphone ecosystem.

Additional measures would require Google to share more data with advertisers, empowering them to better manage ad placement.

A long road of legal wrangling

The case’s roots trace back to the Trump administration, continuing under President Biden in a rare bipartisan push against tech monopolies.

The most stringent option—forcing the sale of Android—was ultimately set aside in favour of more targeted interventions.

The April hearing will determine the course of these proposals, with a final ruling expected by August 2025.

Google, meanwhile, is prepared to appeal Mehta’s ruling.

Lee-Anne Mulholland, the company’s vice president of regulatory affairs, characterized the DOJ’s position as radical overreach.

“The government putting its thumb on the scale in these ways would harm consumers, developers, and American technological leadership,” she said, in the Bloomberg report.

How likely is it for Google to sell Chrome?

While the DoJ is set to push through its recommendations, questions remain about whether the judge will accept them.

“The likelihood of a Chrome divestiture seems low,” Rebecca Haw Allensworth, a professor and associate dean for research at Vanderbilt Law School said in a MarketWatch report.

Judge Mehta is known for adhering closely to legal precedents. While antitrust laws do allow for breakups as a remedy, such actions have largely been avoided over the past 40 years. His August ruling demonstrated his commitment to precedent, with the Microsoft case being the most relevant example.

Adding complexity is the impending political shift and uncertainty regarding how the incoming Trump administration will approach ongoing Big Tech cases.

Historically, Republican administrations have favoured a more hands-off approach toward Silicon Valley.

However, Allensworth pointed out that the original case against Google was filed during Trump’s first term.

“Trump’s policies don’t align with traditional ‘laissez-faire’ Republicanism,” she noted. “It’s unclear how his DOJ will handle this case.”

Stock market impact and industry implications

News of the potential divestiture weighed on Google’s stock, which fell up to 1.8% in late trading.

This dip contrasts with a broader upward trend this year, where shares had gained 25%.

Industry analysts have mixed reactions.

Mandeep Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence expressed skepticism about a forced spin-off, citing regulatory challenges facing potential buyers like Amazon.

However, Singh did highlight that a less-expected buyer, such as OpenAI, might leverage the assets to bolster its consumer and ad-related offerings.

AI overviews under fire

Google’s AI-driven “overviews” feature has also drawn complaints from publishers, who argue that it siphons traffic and ad revenue.

While website owners can opt out of contributing to Google’s training data, the penalty is reduced visibility in search results—a critical trade-off in a fiercely competitive digital market.

The DOJ’s planned remedies, if accepted, would enable publishers to block content usage for such features while ensuring that opting out doesn’t severely impact their search rankings.

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