Inflation in Nigeria has accelerated at a troubling pace, reaching 33.9% year-on-year in October, up from 32.7% in September.

This marks one of the steepest rises in recent months, raising questions about the underlying drivers of this inflationary trend and the challenges facing the country’s economy.

The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest data on Friday, which exceeded analysts’ median forecast of 33.4%.

The surge underscores the persistent pressures affecting Africa’s largest economy.

What’s fueling Nigeria’s inflation?

The sharp rise in inflation can be attributed to several interlinked factors, including a depreciating currency, elevated food prices, and increased fuel costs:

• Currency depreciation: The naira has lost 45% of its value this year, making it the world’s third-worst-performing currency. This decline has driven up the cost of imports, further fueling domestic price increases.
• Food prices: Food inflation climbed to 39.2% in October, up from 37.8% the previous month. Key staples such as corn and rice have seen significant price hikes due to supply chain disruptions and higher import costs.
• Fuel costs: Rising gasoline prices, coupled with ongoing subsidy removals, have added another layer of pressure, increasing transportation costs and subsequently impacting consumer goods prices.

The central bank’s response

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has raised interest rates at 13 consecutive monetary policy meetings, bringing the policy rate to 27.25% from 11.5% in May 2022.

Despite these measures, inflation continues to outpace expectations, challenging the bank’s ability to stabilize prices.

Economists expect further action at the upcoming MPC meeting on November 26.

A 100-basis-point rate hike is widely anticipated as the central bank seeks to contain inflation and achieve positive real interest rates to attract investment.

David Omojomolo, Africa economist at Capital Economics, noted,

The reversal in disinflation trends is likely to push the CBN to extend its rate-hiking cycle, despite concerns about economic growth.

Global and domestic challenges

Nigeria’s inflation woes are exacerbated by external and domestic challenges:

1. Global energy prices: Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions have kept oil prices volatile. As a major importer of refined petroleum, Nigeria has faced higher costs, which ripple across the economy.
2. Subsidy removal: The government’s decision to end fuel subsidies earlier this year, while fiscally prudent, has contributed to rising consumer prices.
3. Supply chain disruptions: Persistent logistical issues and inefficiencies in the agricultural sector have driven up food prices, which account for a significant portion of Nigeria’s inflation basket.

Economic impact of rising inflation

The rapid rise in inflation poses risks to Nigeria’s economic growth.

The economy is already forecast to expand by a modest 0.5% this year, with growth projections for 2025 and 2026 at just 1.3%.

Higher prices are eroding household purchasing power and could dampen consumer spending, a critical driver of economic activity.

Moreover, the widening gap between inflation and the policy rate—currently about 660 basis points—underscores the challenges for monetary policymakers.

Is relief in sight?

While inflation is expected to moderate in 2024 as the effects of fuel price hikes and naira depreciation fade, any relief may be slow and uneven.

Structural issues such as weak infrastructure, policy uncertainties, and global market volatility continue to weigh on Nigeria’s economic prospects.

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India’s coal-fired power plants are poised to miss a critical year-end deadline to install emissions control equipment, compounding the country’s struggle with air pollution.

As deadly smog blankets Delhi and other northern regions, delays in implementing sulfur dioxide curbing measures threaten to worsen the nation’s air quality crisis.

According to a Bloomberg report, nearly 75% of coal-fired generators near major cities will fail to meet the December 31 deadline to install pollution control systems.

These systems are designed to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, which break down into harmful sulfates that contribute significantly to the particulate matter in India’s persistent smog.

Proper installation can sharply reduce emissions

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), if fully implemented, the installation of these systems could reduce India’s sulfur dioxide emissions by about two-thirds.

Manoj Kumar, an analyst with CREA, explained that sulfates can account for nearly one-third of the particulate mass that forms smog in India.

Approximately 20 gigawatts of coal plants near major cities face the imminent deadline, while plants in critically polluted areas have until 2025.

Other facilities across the country must comply by 2026. However, progress has been slow—less than 10% of India’s 219-gigawatt coal capacity has installed the required equipment. 

Power ministry seeking a third extension

According to Bloomberg, India’s Ministry of Power is reportedly preparing to seek a third extension of the compliance deadline.

The ministry is also considering exemptions for older plants with less than 10 years of operational life remaining.

Power plant operators have resisted the upgrades, citing high costs and the need to shut down operations for up to a month to install the equipment.

Operators argue that prolonged shutdowns could jeopardize electricity supply, especially as India has faced power shortages during recent summer heatwaves.

Extension could further exacerbate pollution

The delay in reducing emissions comes at a significant cost. Each winter, northern India, including Delhi, is shrouded in hazardous smog caused by vehicle emissions, construction dust, and crop-burning practices in states like Punjab and Haryana.

On Monday, Delhi’s air quality index (AQI) surged to over 1,700, far exceeding the safe limit of 50.

Authorities have implemented emergency measures, including halting construction work, restricting truck movement, and advising citizens to stay indoors. Schools have also been instructed to shift to online classes.

The health toll of this pollution is severe, with millions of premature deaths attributed to poor air quality.

The economic impact is equally stark, with productivity losses mounting as smog chokes cities and disrupts daily life.

India originally introduced its power plant emissions cleanup plan in 2015, but the compliance timeline has already been extended twice.

Environmental experts warn that further delays will only exacerbate the country’s air pollution crisis, undermining efforts to combat the growing health and economic challenges tied to toxic air.

As the government considers another extension, the urgency for decisive action grows, with millions of lives and the nation’s environmental future hanging in the balance.

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Adani Group stocks experienced a sharp and widespread selloff on Thursday after US prosecutors announced bribery and fraud charges against Gautam Adani and seven associates.

The charges, unveiled late Wednesday, allege that Adani and his executives engaged in a multibillion-dollar scheme involving bribery to secure solar energy contracts in India.

Adani Energy Solutions bore the brunt of the market reaction, with shares plummeting 20%.

Adani Green Energy followed closely, dropping 18%. Adani Total Gas and Adani Power fell by 13-14%, while flagship companies such as Adani Enterprises, Ambuja Cements, ACC, and Adani Ports were locked in at their 10% lower circuit limits.

Other subsidiaries, including NDTV (-11%), Adani Wilmar (-8%), and Sanghi Industries (-6%), also faced significant losses, reflecting the ripple effect across the conglomerate.

Adani Green bond offering scrapped amid fallout

Amid the legal and market turbulence, Adani Green Energy cancelled plans of a $600 million bond issuance scheduled for Thursday.

Adani Green Energy’s dollar bonds issued in March dropped a record 15 cents, hitting a low of 80 cents, as per Bloomberg data.

Bonds from other Adani Group entities also saw significant declines, with some falling to as low as 74 cents—their steepest drop since the 2023 Hindenburg Research report.

“While Adani has demonstrated resilience in handling previous allegations, including those from Hindenburg, this incident highlights the ongoing risks tied to emerging markets, particularly regarding governance, transparency, and regulatory oversight,” said Mohit Mirpuri, a fund manager at Singapore-based SGMC Capital Pte in a Bloomberg report.

Bribery allegations against Adani and nephew explained

The indictment filed by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) outlines serious accusations against Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and other executives.

They are charged with conspiring to defraud US investors and global financial institutions through false representations.

According to the indictment, the group paid $265 million in bribes to Indian officials to secure state solar energy contracts.

The prosecutors claim these contracts were projected to generate $2 billion in profits over 20 years.

Some participants in the scheme allegedly referred to Gautam Adani by code names such as “Numero uno” and “the big man.”

The bribes were reportedly concealed from lenders and investors to secure over $3 billion in loans and bonds for Adani Green Energy.

The charges fall under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which targets corruption and bribery in international business dealings.

Deputy Assistant Attorney General Lisa H. Miller called the allegations a “massive fraud,” stating, “This indictment alleges schemes to pay over $250 million in bribes, lie to investors and banks to raise billions of dollars, and obstruct justice.”

A second major blow for Adani Group

This development marks another significant setback for Gautam Adani, whose business empire has been under fire since the January 2023 Hindenburg Research report accused the group of financial misconduct.

That report led to a staggering $150 billion loss in market capitalization across Adani’s companies.

Gautam Adani, ranked by Forbes as the 22nd richest person globally with a net worth of $69.8 billion, now faces not only financial challenges but also potential legal consequences.

Reports indicate that arrest warrants have been issued for Gautam Adani and his nephew Sagar Adani, compounding the group’s troubles.

What’s next for Adani Group?

The allegations have cast a long shadow over Adani Group’s global operations and its access to international capital markets.

It could also intensify foreign fund withdrawals, which have already reached record levels since October.

“Foreign investor sentiment could be affected if the investigation escalates,” Manish Bhargava, CEO of Straits Investment Management told Bloomberg, adding that the case heightens reputational risks for the group.

The charges came on the heels of Adani announcing a fresh investment in green energy and congratulating US President-elect Donald Trump on his election victory.

Trump, known for his pro-energy deregulation stance, has pledged to simplify rules for energy companies, including those operating in renewable sectors.

As the case progresses, its trajectory will likely depend on the incoming Trump administration.

Breon Peace, the Brooklyn US attorney appointed under Biden, is expected to step down.

“It’s unusual for charges like this to emerge during a transition of power,” said Gary Dugan, CEO of Global CIO Office. “The hope is that Donald Trump dismisses it once in office.”

The Adani Group has not yet issued a statement in response to the charges, but analysts predict extended volatility for its stocks and bonds as the legal process unfolds.

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The world’s billionaires are richer and more numerous than ever, with their collective wealth reaching unprecedented levels.

According to the 2023 Billionaire Census by Altrata, the global billionaire population grew by 4% to 3,323 individuals, while their combined net worth surged 9% to a staggering $12.1 trillion.

This remarkable concentration of wealth underscores the growing economic divide even among the super-rich.

An elite group of just 18 billionaires, each worth over $50 billion, now controls nearly $2 trillion—16% of all billionaire wealth.

This is a fourfold increase in their share compared to a decade ago, highlighting the rapid pace of wealth accumulation at the very top.

Tech tycoons and North America dominate the billionaire boom

North America remains the hub of billionaire wealth, with its billionaire population rising by 9.9% to 1,111 individuals.

The region’s collective wealth jumped 15.7% to surpass $5 trillion, driven by strong stock market gains and the meteoric rise of mega-cap technology stocks.

While Altrata’s report does not name individuals, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index identifies tech magnates like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as standout performers.

These leaders capitalized on bullish equity markets and investor confidence in tech-driven innovation.

Source: Wealth-X, an Altrata company, 2024

Unequal distribution among billionaires

Despite the surge in numbers, billionaire wealth remains unevenly distributed.

Most billionaires—84%—have fortunes between $1 billion and $5 billion, accounting for 42% of total billionaire wealth.

In contrast, a smaller cohort of 194 billionaires, each worth $10 billion or more, controls 41% of global billionaire wealth, or $5 trillion.

“The wealth of billionaires is increasing year-on-year, hitting the highest numbers on record,” said Maya Imberg, head of thought leadership at Altrata.

She credited compounding investment returns during economic growth periods for this accumulation, despite challenges such as inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.

Source: Wealth-X, an Altrata company, 2024

India leads in billionaire growth

India posted the fastest growth in billionaire numbers in 2023, with a 16% increase to 131 individuals.

Their collective wealth stands at $395 billion, making India the fourth-ranked country in billionaire wealth after the US, China, and Germany.

China, however, saw its billionaire count shrink by 15% to 304, with total wealth falling to $1.2 trillion.

Altrata attributes this decline to China’s slowing economy and underperforming stock markets, reflecting broader macroeconomic challenges.

Women billionaires gain ground globally

Female billionaires now account for 13% of the global total, numbering 431 individuals.

Among them, 38% inherited their fortunes, including Alice Walton, heir to Walmart, and Françoise Bettencourt Meyers, the world’s wealthiest woman and granddaughter of L’Oréal’s founder.

Interestingly, female billionaires are 1.5 times more likely than their male counterparts to own luxury real estate and 1.3 times more likely to invest in fine art.

Their portfolios also feature a higher proportion of privately held investments, often tied to multi-generational family businesses.

Self-made female billionaires are predominantly active in the financial services and technology sectors, while philanthropy and financial services are the most common areas of focus for female billionaires overall.

As the global billionaire population hits new records, the growing concentration of wealth at the top sparks debates about its broader economic and societal implications.

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Russia’s economy is showing cracks as the country struggles to sustain its military operations in Ukraine.

Officially, Russia’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023, with similar growth expected this year.

However, this economic performance hides deeper problems caused by skyrocketing military spending, weapon production bottlenecks, and a labor market stretched to its limits.

As the war nears its third year, Russia’s financial and industrial systems are under immense pressure.

The defense budget alone will account for 6% of GDP in 2024, the highest since the Cold War.

Combined with security services spending, this amounts to 40% of the government budget.

At the same time, the central bank has raised interest rates to 21%, making it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow, with rates expected to rise further.

A tight labor market creates risks

Russia’s unemployment rate is at a record low of 2.4%, an unusual figure for a country at war.

Yet, this tight labor market signals significant challenges.

The Kremlin has redirected workers into the defense sector, with over 500,000 new employees in arms production and paramilitary roles since 2022. 

Additionally, the military requires 30,000 recruits each month to replace battlefield losses, forcing it to turn to unconventional sources like prisoners and North Korean soldiers.

These shifts leave civilian industries short-staffed.

Employers in non-defense sectors struggle to compete with the fivefold wage increases offered in defense-related jobs.

Rising labor costs have further fueled inflation, which now exceeds 8%.

Price hikes for essential goods like potatoes (+73%) and butter (+30%) are worsening living conditions for average Russians.

Weapon production cannot keep up

Russia is losing military equipment at unsustainable rates.

Analysts report monthly losses of 320 artillery barrels and 155 infantry vehicles.

Domestic production falls far short of meeting these needs, with only 20 artillery barrels and 17 infantry vehicles manufactured each month.

The country has turned to old Soviet-era stockpiles and imports, including artillery shells from North Korea, but these sources are depleting quickly.

Weapon production faces technical barriers as well.

Russia’s capacity to produce tank barrels and large-caliber cannons is limited by its reliance on specialized rotary forges, of which it has only two.

Each forge produces just 10 barrels per month, highlighting severe industrial constraints.

Without external assistance—such as from China, which has yet to commit its resources—Russia’s weapons shortages will likely worsen by late 2025.

Why are interest rates rising during wartime?

While most central banks aim to lower interest rates during conflicts to encourage spending, Russia’s central bank is taking the opposite approach. 

Interest rates now stand at 21%, compared to just 6% before the war.

This policy reflects a desperate effort to stabilize the ruble, which has fallen 10% against the yuan this year.

Maintaining the ruble’s value is critical because Russia relies on imports, especially from China, for key technologies like microelectronics used in drones, missiles, and tanks.

High borrowing costs are already taking a toll.

Mortgage volumes halved in July when subsidies ended, and corporate bankruptcies are up 20% this year.

Even state-aligned entities like the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs report that investment plans for 2025 are being postponed due to unaffordable financing.

Dependence on China grows

China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, supplying over 90% of its microelectronics and a third of all imports. However, this dependence creates vulnerabilities for Russia.

Unlike the US-UK alliance during World War II, where the US provided critical supplies through the Lend-Lease program, China’s support comes with demands.

Russia must pay for imports in yuan, making the ruble’s stability a key factor in sustaining military operations.

This reliance on China also limits Russia’s geopolitical flexibility.

While the recent BRICS summits have been used to project an image of strength, they underline how much Russia’s economy and military now depend on Beijing.

China accounts for over 60% of BRICS economic output, giving it significant influence over the bloc.

Lowering the nuclear threshold

Russia’s recent update to its nuclear doctrine raises new concerns.

The revised policy allows for nuclear strikes in response to conventional attacks that threaten the sovereignty or territorial integrity of Russia or Belarus.

This lowers the threshold for nuclear use, potentially escalating tensions with NATO.

The doctrine also includes a broader definition of mass attacks, such as those involving drones or cruise missiles.

The timing of this update coincides with Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

Moscow considers such attacks to be part of a coordinated NATO effort and has warned that any further escalation could provoke direct retaliation.

Economic growth masks deeper problems

Although Russia’s GDP figures suggest resilience, the underlying picture is far less rosy.

Military-driven growth, or “military Keynesianism,” is unsustainable in the long term. 

Most new jobs are linked to defense and add little value to the civilian economy.

Inflation, high interest rates, and a shrinking private sector are eroding the foundations of Russia’s economic stability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Russia’s growth will slow sharply to 1.3% in 2025.

Even state-backed entities like VEB, Russia’s development bank, have cut growth forecasts to 2%.

With fewer resources for investment and a labor market strained by conscription, the outlook is bleak.

Is Putin running out of time?

Putin has a mountain to climb as he tries to sustain the war effort without crippling Russia’s economy. 

Dependence on China, weapon and labour shortages, as well as high borrowing costs are straining the country’s ability to maintain both military and domestic stability. 

The economic pressures are growing, and the cracks in Russia’s war economy are becoming harder to ignore.

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