Mexico’s economy posted its fastest growth in two and a half years, expanding by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, according to INEGI, the country’s national statistics agency.

The figure slightly outpaced the 1.0% forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters, signaling that Latin America’s second-largest economy is regaining momentum despite challenges.

Strong rebound in primary sector

The primary sector—comprising agriculture, fishing, and mining—led the recovery with an impressive 4.9% growth in Q3, rebounding sharply from a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter.

This resurgence highlights the sector’s critical role in the economy, particularly amid external pressures such as volatile weather and fluctuating global commodity prices.

Meanwhile, the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing, grew by 0.9%, improving from the 0.3% recorded in Q2.

The tertiary sector, encompassing services, also grew by 1.1%, a significant improvement from its marginal 0.1% increase in the prior quarter.

Together, these sectors reflect a well-rounded economic recovery, driven by stronger industrial and service activities.

Annual growth stabilizes amid mixed signals

Despite quarter-over-quarter growth, annual growth slowed to 1.6% compared to the same period last year, down from 2.2% in the previous quarter.

However, this figure exceeded the 1.5% forecast in the Reuters poll, highlighting gradual stabilization in Mexico’s economy.

In September 2024, economic activity rose 0.3% year-over-year, decelerating from a revised 0.7% gain in August and falling short of market expectations of 0.5%.

Services growth slowed to 0.7%, while industrial output contracted by 0.4%, weighed down by declines in mining (-4.5%) and manufacturing (-2.3%).

However, agricultural activity rose by 1.2%, marking a rebound from a 2.1% decline in August.

Monthly, economic activity increased by 0.2% in September, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, following a 0.2% decline in August.

Central bank’s strategic rate cuts

In a move to support growth, Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25%.

The unanimous decision reflects the bank’s confidence in easing inflation pressures and its intent to stimulate investment and consumer spending.

The rate cut, Banxico’s first in years, highlights its careful balancing act between fostering economic expansion and maintaining price stability.

With inflation gradually subsiding, the central bank has room to consider further rate cuts, potentially boosting domestic demand and enhancing Mexico’s growth trajectory.

Mexico’s Q3 growth offers a positive outlook for the economy, with solid performances in agriculture, manufacturing, and services. While annual growth rates have moderated, the resilience in key sectors and supportive monetary policies from Banxico provide a foundation for continued recovery.

The combination of sector-specific rebounds and strategic rate adjustments positions Mexico for steady progress in the months ahead, making it a key player in Latin America’s economic recovery story.

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Singapore has revised its 2024 economic growth forecast to 3.5%, exceeding earlier estimates of 2.0-3.0%, thanks to strong performance in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance.

The Trade and Industry Ministry attributed the boost to global demand for electronics, especially semiconductors, as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom spurred growth in key export markets, including the United States and the eurozone.

The city-state, often regarded as a global economic barometer due to its trade-dependent economy, also upgraded its full-year outlook for the second time this year following robust third-quarter data.

Singapore’s Q3 economic growth outpaces expectations

Singapore’s economy expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding economists’ forecasts of under 4.0% and a preliminary estimate of 4.1%.

This brought the year-to-date average growth to 3.8%, leading to the upward revision of the full-year forecast.

Key growth drivers included manufacturing, which surged 11.0% year-on-year, reversing a 1.1% contraction in the prior quarter, and wholesale trade.

The manufacturing sector’s rebound was fuelled by increased demand for smartphone and personal computer semiconductor chips, despite weaker demand for automotive and industrial chips.

Wholesale trade also benefited from this trend, capitalising on improved global trade dynamics.

AI boom boosts Singapore’s electronics exports

The ongoing AI revolution has been pivotal for Singapore’s electronics sector.

The surge in demand for semiconductors linked to AI applications significantly supported the city-state’s exports, which form a cornerstone of its economy.

Semiconductors for smartphones and personal computers saw robust growth, counterbalancing sluggish demand in other areas.

Singapore’s strategic positioning as a major trade hub allowed it to benefit from better-than-expected performance in key export markets, such as the United States, the eurozone, and regional economies.

Upgrades mark a second revision for 2024 growth forecast

This marks the second upgrade to Singapore’s economic growth projection in 2024.

In August, officials raised the estimate to 2.0-3.0% from 1.0-3.0%. The latest revision reflects stronger-than-anticipated global economic activity in the third quarter.

The ministry highlighted contributions from finance and insurance, alongside manufacturing and trade, as sectors bolstered by an upturn in the global electronics cycle.

Despite these gains, policymakers remain cautious. Global economic uncertainties, including potential shifts in US trade policies under a new administration, could impact Singapore’s growth trajectory in 2025.

Singapore’s economy for 2025

While Singapore’s economy demonstrated resilience in 2024, the outlook for 2025 is more subdued.

Growth is projected at 1.0-3.0% due to anticipated global economic challenges.

The ministry cited uncertainties surrounding US policy changes and risks to the global trade environment as potential headwinds.

These challenges could dampen the strong momentum seen in the electronics sector and trade-dependent industries.

Increased global inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions are also expected to influence Singapore’s economic performance next year. Policymakers emphasised the need for vigilance, given the risks tilted to the downside.

Manufacturing remains a pillar of Singapore’s economy, contributing significantly to the third-quarter rebound.

The electronics cluster played a central role, benefiting from advancements in AI technologies.

Despite weaker performance in some segments, the overall manufacturing sector outpaced expectations, providing a solid foundation for economic recovery.

Analysts caution that external factors such as slowing global demand and trade tensions could pose challenges for sustained growth in manufacturing and related industries in 2025.

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US President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Energy Department believes fossil fuels are key to ending world poverty, which he says is a bigger issue than climate change’s “distant” threat, Reuters reported.

Trump’s choice to lead the US Energy Department Chris Wright penned a corporate report released in February called Bettering Human Lives.

The report was penned, while he was still the CEO of oilfield services company Liberty Energy. 

Wright said in the report that poverty can be alleviated by giving people more access to hydrocarbons. 

Wright had started a foundation aimed at expanding propane cookstoves in developing countries, Reuters said in its report. 

There have been concerns about Trump’s policies regarding energy and climate change.

The President-elect has been vocal about his support for the oil and gas industry in the US. 

Trump is also expected to roll back several climate regulations passed under the incumbent US President Joe Biden.

Wright’s appointment was thus seen as a step towards increasing oil and gas output in the US by experts. 

Wright’s appointment crucial for US oil and gas industry?

“The vibes will be better for the oil and gas industry,” Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines, told Reuters in an interview, adding the industry felt attacked by President Joe Biden’s climate policies.

Brazilian also said that Wright is “a perfect example of this. He’s been outspoken on how the oil and gas industry has brought security power and development to the United States, which is true. The other true thing is that global emissions aren’t going down”. 

As the world tries to transition to using clean energy, the appointment of Wright could roll back the progress of the US in limiting carbon emissions. 

Experts have said that emissions from fossil fuels are the major reason for climate change. 

In the report, Wright said that carbon is essential for life, and pushed back on the treatment of carbon dioxide as a pollutant. 

Experts term Wright’s logic as absurd 

Reuters quoted Peter Reich, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan, as saying that Wright’s logic is “terrifyingly absurd”. 

“People and their pets and crops also need water,” Reich told Reuters.

Reich said:

That doesn’t mean that if your house is flooded up to the second floor or your soybean field is under water, that water cannot be a problem.

Wright in the report said that much of the world was losing perspective as they pushed misdirected efforts to achieve the social and political goal of appearing to “take action” against climate change. 

“Overheated rhetoric is epitomized by current UN head Antonio Guterres’ ‘code red for humanity’ and ‘global boiling’,” Wright said in the report. 

Additionally, he also mentioned in the report without evidence that the population of polar bears is rising. 

Charlotte Lindqvist, an expert at the University of Buffalo, told Reuters that polar bear populations are not increasing and the species is losing its sea ice habitats.

Wright says solar and wind energy insufficient

In the report, Wright said small modular nuclear, which is not yet commercialized, and geothermal can be alternatives to petroleum products. 

However, according to Reuters, he criticized solar and wind energy as insufficient. 

Bazilian told Reuters Wright’s views on solar and wind were outdated.  

He noted that the cost of carbon-free solar and wind has fallen dramatically and those sources can also address energy poverty, according to Reuters. 

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US equity benchmarks rose on Friday as investors’ sentiments were boosted by positive economic data from the world’s biggest economy. 

At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, while the S&P 500 index gained 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite inched up just 0.1%. 

All the benchmarks were headed for a more than 1% weekly gain this week.

This marked a change from last week when the major averages fell after a post-election rally. 

According to a report by CNBC, Friday’s moves in Wall Street were a continuation of a trend where investors shifted exposure to other economically sensitive corners of the market from major tech companies. 

Tech stocks struggled on Friday with both major companies, NVIDIA Corp and Alphabet slipping during the trading session. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin neared the long-awaited $100,000 mark, while the Russel 2000 climbed 1%. The Russel 2000 index was on track to end the week with more than 4% gains. 

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research told CNBC:

Investors are rotating out of the previous high flyers of large-cap communication services and technology and into other cyclical sectors of consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, as well as mid- and small-cap stocks. 

Purchasing managers index rise in November

Activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the US rose during November. 

The flash PMI reading for services moved up to 57.0, a two-point increase from October and the highest reading in 32 months. 

On the manufacturing side, the index nudged higher to 48.8, up slightly from October and the highest level in four months.

The manufacturing reading met the Dow Jones estimate while the services index was slightly better than the 55.0 forecast.

The indexes measure the percentage of companies reporting growth, so anything above 50 represents expansion.

Gap, and Ross retail stocks gain 

Shares of both retail stocks Gap and Ross rose on Friday after posting positive earnings results on Friday. 

Shares of Gap rose 15% after the company beat estimates on the top and bottom lines. The retail store also raised its full-year sales guidance. 

Meanwhile, shares of Ross gained 7% after the company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.48. Analysts with LSEG projected earnings of $1.40 per share. 

Alphabet, NVIDIA drops

Shares of Alphabet dropped nearly 2% on Friday, extending steep losses from Thursday’s session. 

Shares dropped as the Department of Justice argued to a judge that the company was monopolizing online searches. 

Additionally, shares of NVIDIA Corporation also dropped more than 3% on Friday as investors remained unimpressed about the company’s revenue forecasts. 

The decline of both prominent shares in the US weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. 

Meanwhile, Intuit lost 4.7% after the TurboTax parent projected second-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates on Thursday.

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President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff proposals have triggered widespread concerns among businesses and economists.

Trump has suggested imposing a 20% tariff on all US imports and steeper duties of up to 60% on goods from China and other key trading partners.

Retailers like Walmart and Lowe’s have already signaled that they may need to raise prices if these tariffs are enacted.

However, TJX—the parent company of TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods—sees an opportunity amid the disruption.

TJX’s unique business model

Unlike most competitors that depend heavily on overseas production, TJX relies on a unique business model that involves acquiring excess inventory from designer brands.

Much of this merchandise is sourced after it has already been imported, meaning tariffs have typically been paid by the original importer.

This “opportunistic buying” strategy allows TJX to sell items at discounts ranging from 20% to 60% below standard retail prices.

CEO Ernie Herrman believes Trump’s tariffs will only enhance the company’s ability to scoop up discounted goods.

“Manufacturers could bring in goods early,” Herrman noted during an earnings call on Wednesday. “That could create even more availability of goods at advantageous prices for us.”

Lessons from 2019 tariffs

TJX’s confidence stems from experience.

When the Trump administration raised tariffs to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods in 2019, TJX leveraged the ensuing market disruption to secure bargains.

Herrman described that period as a significant “buying opportunity” for the company.

The National Retail Federation forecasts similar dynamics this year, predicting a 13.6% increase in imports this November compared to last year and a 6.1% rise in December.

Retailers are racing to import goods ahead of potential tariff enforcement, creating conditions that TJX can exploit.

Competitors face an uphill battle

The outlook for TJX contrasts sharply with that of its rivals.

Companies like Steve Madden are accelerating plans to relocate production out of China, while Walmart and Lowe’s anticipate unavoidable price hikes.

“Our model is everyday low prices. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers,” Walmart finance chief John David Rainey told CNBC.

Although TJX acknowledges that some price increases may occur, analysts believe its pricing will remain competitive.

Neil Saunders, a GlobalData Retail analyst told CNN, “Even if prices rise due to tariffs, TJX will still be relatively cheaper than mainstream retailers.”

By capitalizing on supply chain disruptions and leveraging its unique sourcing strategy, TJX aims to reinforce its reputation as a leader in the discount retail space.

As competitors grapple with rising costs, TJX’s ability to adapt positions it well for growth, even in a challenging economic environment.

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