India and the US are set to engage in high-stakes trade negotiations as Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets President Donald Trump.

While previous discussions between the two leaders focused on strengthening bilateral ties, this round of talks is being shaped by economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and a shifting global trade landscape.

With both nations seeking leverage in ongoing tariff disputes, the meeting carries significant implications for trade flows, investment, and strategic alliances.

Trump, who has long used tariffs as a bargaining tool, has targeted India’s trade policies, citing a $45.6 billion trade deficit and what he considers excessive barriers to US goods.

Modi, on the other hand, is looking to protect India’s export-driven industries while securing critical technology and defence partnerships.

As trade imbalances and economic nationalism dominate the conversation, both leaders must navigate domestic pressures and global realities to strike a mutually beneficial agreement.

Trump’s tariff strategy

Trump’s trade policies have consistently emphasised reciprocity, with his administration vowing to impose tariffs on countries that maintain high duties on US imports.

India’s average tariff rate of 12%, compared to the US rate of 2.2%, has been a point of contention. Washington has long pushed New Delhi to lower tariffs on key American exports, including agricultural products, medical devices, and energy.

In recent years, India has increased its purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG), combat vehicles, and jet engines from the US, hoping that such deals would ease trade tensions.

The US remains unconvinced, demanding further concessions on electronics, chemicals, and agricultural products.

Trump’s administration sees these sectors as critical to balancing trade relations, and any failure to make significant progress could result in further escalation of tariffs.

Beyond tariffs, Trump is also expected to press India on immigration policies, particularly concerning skilled workers.

The US has a significant number of Indian professionals working under H-1B visas, a programme Trump has previously sought to reform.

Concerns over unauthorised immigration from India could become a bargaining chip in the broader negotiations.

Modi’s diplomatic manoeuvre

For India, the stakes are high. While economic cooperation with the US is crucial, Modi must also protect key domestic industries from tariff-related disruptions.

With India’s economy recovering from post-pandemic shocks and global supply chain realignments, striking the right balance in trade negotiations is a priority.

Modi’s team is reportedly preparing tariff reduction proposals across a dozen sectors, hoping to mitigate Washington’s pressure while securing favourable terms for Indian exports.

In particular, India is seeking expanded access to the US market for pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services—sectors that have historically driven India’s export growth.

Another critical factor in the negotiations is India’s growing defence ties with the US.

New Delhi has increasingly relied on American military technology to modernise its armed forces, with recent deals covering jet engines, drones, and advanced weaponry.

These partnerships align with India’s broader strategy to counter China’s regional influence, a priority shared by Washington.

India’s policy of “strategic ambiguity” has also led to continued engagement with Russia, particularly in energy purchases, complicating its position in global trade and diplomatic alliances.

Geopolitical undercurrents

The India-US trade discussions are unfolding against a complex geopolitical backdrop. China remains a key factor, with both nations viewing Beijing’s economic and military rise as a strategic challenge.

The US sees India as a counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific, yet New Delhi remains cautious about becoming overly aligned with Washington’s confrontational approach.

Beyond China, India’s energy ties with Russia have drawn scrutiny from the US, particularly amid Western efforts to isolate Moscow over the Ukraine war.

While India has continued purchasing Russian oil at discounted rates, Washington has pushed New Delhi to reduce its dependence on Moscow.

The upcoming trade talks may provide further insights into how Trump’s administration views India’s role in global diplomacy and whether economic incentives could be used to shift India’s strategic positioning.

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Apple has officially partnered with Alibaba to power AI features on iPhones sold in China, marking a significant shift in the company’s artificial intelligence strategy in one of its most critical markets.

The announcement, made by Alibaba Group Chairman Joe Tsai at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, comes as Apple seeks to regain ground amid fierce competition from domestic rivals like Huawei.

The deal, first reported by The Information earlier this week, sent Alibaba shares surging 2.5% on Thursday, reaching their highest intraday level since 2022.

Apple, which has largely remained silent about its AI ambitions in China, is now making a strategic move by relying on Alibaba’s AI capabilities to meet local regulatory standards.

The partnership could provide much-needed clarity on how Apple plans to integrate artificial intelligence into its devices while navigating China’s stringent AI laws.

China’s AI rules challenge Apple

Apple’s AI rollout in China has been uncertain due to the country’s strict regulations on artificial intelligence.

Beijing has enforced multiple policies requiring large language models (LLMs) to receive government approval before commercial deployment.

Companies offering generative AI tools must also comply with content moderation laws, ensuring that their platforms do not generate or distribute “illegal” material.

This regulatory landscape has complicated Apple’s ability to launch Apple Intelligence, its AI-driven suite of features, in China.

The system, which is set to debut in the US this fall, includes a more advanced version of Siri, AI-powered email organisation, and automatic transcription and summarisation tools.

Unlike its approach in Western markets, where Apple is reportedly collaborating with OpenAI and Google, the company had to explore alternative solutions to comply with China’s legal framework.

By partnering with Alibaba, Apple is securing a local ally that can facilitate regulatory approvals and adapt AI services to China’s specific requirements.

Alibaba, which operates its own cloud-based AI models, is well-positioned to provide the necessary infrastructure to support Apple’s ambitions while ensuring compliance with the country’s evolving AI laws.

Huawei adds pressure

Apple’s decision to collaborate with Alibaba comes at a time when the iPhone’s market share in China is under threat.

Huawei, one of Apple’s biggest competitors in the region, has aggressively integrated AI-powered features into its latest devices, setting a new benchmark for innovation.

The launch of Huawei’s Mate 60 series last year, equipped with advanced AI capabilities, has helped the company reclaim its position as a dominant player in China’s smartphone market.

Unlike Apple, which has been cautious in introducing AI-driven features in China, Huawei has leveraged its homegrown technology to gain a competitive edge.

The Chinese government has also supported domestic tech giants by prioritising self-reliance in AI development, further complicating Apple’s ability to compete.

The Alibaba partnership could help Apple close the AI gap with local rivals by offering iPhone users in China access to new AI-powered functionalities.

The success of this collaboration will depend on how effectively Apple and Alibaba can tailor these features to consumer expectations while staying within regulatory boundaries.

Investor concerns remain

Apple’s move to secure a local AI partner has been well-received by investors, as reflected in Alibaba’s stock rally.

The announcement has provided a sense of direction for Apple’s AI plans in China, easing concerns about potential regulatory roadblocks.

However, risks remain. Apple’s reliance on Alibaba means it will have to operate within China’s tightly controlled tech environment, where government intervention can impact business operations at any time.

US-China tensions over technology exports and restrictions on semiconductor access could introduce further complications for Apple’s long-term strategy in the country.

For now, the partnership marks a significant step towards Apple’s AI ambitions in China.

Whether this move will help the company regain lost market share or simply be a temporary fix amid increasing regulatory scrutiny remains to be seen.

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The NatWest share price is surging this year, helped by the growing profits and rotation towards European banks. It has soared in the last five straight weeks, and is hovering at its highest level in 17 years, making it one of the best-performing bank stocks in the UK. So, is NWG a good investment ahead of earnings?

NatWest share price surges ahead of earnings

The weekly chart shows that the NWG stock price has been in a strong uptrend after bottoming at 75.68p in 2020. It has soared to 450p, a 500% surge, transforming it into a $45 billion behemoth. 

The chart shows that the stock has risen in the last five weeks and has remained significantly above the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It has moved above the key resistance point at 275.7p, its highest swing in January 2023. 

The Average Directional Index (ADX) has moved to 40, a sign that the stock has a strong momentum going on. NatWest’s MACD indicator has continued rising, signaling that it has a strong momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has continued rising and is nearing the overbought level at 72. Therefore, the stock will likely soar as investors embrace the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and the trend continues. 

There is a risk that the NatWest share price may drop in the coming weeks as it faces mean reversion. Mean reversion is a situation where a stock or any asset moves drop and approach the 50-week moving average level. 

NWG earnings ahead

The NatWest share price has done well after Barclays released strong financial results. Barclays said that its full-year pre-tax profit rose by 24% to £8.1 billion, higher than the expected £8.08 billion.

The company’s business was boosted by the trading division that benefited from the Trump bump. The company also announced a fresh £1 billion share repurchase program and continued to slash costs across all divisions. 

These results bode well for NatWest, which releases its financial results on Friday. As a recap, the most recent third-quarter results showed that its total income rose to £3.7 billion. Its net impairment slowed to £245 million as the net loans to customers rose by over £8.4 billion.

Analysts anticipate that the net interest income will be £2.9 billion, bringing the full-year figure to £11.2 billion. Its total income will be £3.71 billion and its annual figure will be £14.5 billion. This will bring its profit for the fourth quarter to £965 million. 

Analysts believe that NatWest’s business will do well in the next few years, with its estimated net interest income rising from £12.9 billion in 2026 to £13 billion. This is a notable since the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months.

The BoE has already slashed rates three times, and in its meeting this month, it cut them by 0.25%. Low interest rates hurt banks by reducing the net interest margin. In an emailed note to Invezz, an analyst from Wedbush said:

“NatWest is positioned well for growth this year. However, we should be careful of the Bank of England’s policies, potential trade war with the US, and the fact that the British economy is slowing. Competition is also rising, which could hit interest margins in the future.”

However, low rates can also stimulate an economic growth and lead to higher deposits. That’s because investors often move their cash from banks to higher-yielding assets when interest rates rise. This explains why the net income margin of most banks have slowed recently. 

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