Black Friday, the traditional kickoff to the Christmas shopping season, arrived with a twist this year: a significantly shortened timeframe.

With only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared to 31 days in 2022, retailers faced a compressed selling season, adding pressure to their holiday sales strategies.

This compressed timeframe, coupled with inflation-weary consumers, created a unique challenge for businesses aiming to maximize profits during this crucial period.

The National Retail Federation, a US retail trade group, anticipates approximately 85.6 million shoppers hitting the stores this year, a notable increase from last year’s 76 million.

Deals and discounts dominate the scene

From exclusive Taylor Swift merchandise at Target to heavily discounted puffer coats at Walmart, retailers worldwide pulled out all the stops to entice bargain-hunting customers.

In Europe, the Black Friday rush began earlier, with British retailers like John Lewis offering substantial discounts on electronics and other goods – up to £300 ($381) off Samsung TVs and significant reductions on Nespresso machines and Apple products.

Currys, a London-listed consumer electronics retailer, reported strong sales of popular items such as the PlayStation 5, air fryers, and retro technology.

The enthusiasm wasn’t limited to electronics; clothing retailers also participated, with Kate Isaienko, a shopper in London, highlighting the rising clothing prices at Zara since moving from Ukraine and seizing the Black Friday discounts as an opportunity to save.

US retailers join the fray

Across the Atlantic, major US retailers like Walmart and Target opened their doors early on Black Friday, offering a wide array of deals.

Walmart, with its 4,700 US stores, started its Black Friday sales on November 11th, offering discounts on electronics, toys, clothing, and kitchen appliances.

Target, with 1,963 locations, also initiated its sales on Thanksgiving, featuring significant price cuts on electronics, toys, and kitchen appliances.

Furthermore, Target is leveraging exclusive merchandise, such as “Wicked”-themed products, to draw customers.

The psychology of impulsive spending

“With fewer days to shop, consumers are more likely to make spontaneous purchases, contributing to retail growth during the holiday season,” Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana, told Reuters.

This highlights the crucial role of impulse buying in boosting holiday sales for retailers.

Beyond the doorbusters

While traditional “doorbuster” deals remain a Black Friday staple, the shift toward online shopping continues.

To counter this trend, many major brick-and-mortar retailers are increasingly focusing on creating immersive, in-store experiences to draw customers.

Examples include Ray-Ban’s augmented reality glasses demonstrations, extra-large TVs at Best Buy, and spa services at Nordstrom.

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SoundHound AI Inc (NASDAQ: SOUN) chief executive Keyvan Mohajer wants his company to be in “all the enterprise brands”.

The artificial intelligence enabled speech recognition company, he’s convinced, is poised to grow at a fast clip as it continues to diversify out of automotive and into retail, healthcare, finance, insurance, and even governments.

In fact, SOUN has already become the “AI leader in restaurants”, as per the CEO.

SoundHound stock is up another 18% today as investors continue to cheer its Amela AI Agents that have handled more than 100,000 customer calls for Apivia Courtage in 2024.  

The French wholesale broker has been able to improve productivity by a whopping 20% with the use of SOUN’s conversational AI agents this year.

SoundHound beats big-tech APIs

CEO Keyvan Mohajer sees AI gents for customer service as the “biggest near-term opportunity for generative artificial intelligence.”

He’s bullish on what the future holds for his company as it’s among the handful of names that have in-house speech recognition technology.

SOUN’s tech even beats big-tech APIs in terms of accuracy and speed, the chief executive revealed in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance.

Wall Street analysts share his optimism as evidenced in their consensus “overweight” rating on SoundHound stock.

Mohajer expects artificial intelligence to be a net positive – it will create more jobs as humans will remain in the driving seat, he argued.

“We used to work in farms and then the machines came and now we drive those machines. AI is the machine now. So, people are going to pilot the AI to do good things.”

SOUN to improve margins moving forward

SoundHound topped Street estimates in its latest reported quarter despite slight deterioration on the margin front.

Speaking with Yahoo Finance, the company’s chief executive attributed margin weakness to recent acquisitions, saying “they have their own clouds, we have our own. They use third-party APIs for AI models, we have our own AI model. So, there’s some duplicate costs.”

Such costs, he’s convinced, will eliminate and margins will improve over time.

SOUN narrowed its per-share loss to 4 cents as revenue soared 89% on a year-over-year basis to $25.1 million in Q3.

The AI enabled voice recognition company expects to achieve profitability in 2025.

SoundHound trimmed its reliance on a single segment and a single customer in the recently concluded quarter as well.

It drove only 25% of its business from automotive versus 90% last year.

The company’s largest customer contributed only 12% in Q3 versus 72% in the same quarter of 2023.

Wedbush Securities analysts currently see upside in SoundHound stock to $10 that translates to about a 10% upside on top of a 100% rally over the past two months.

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Grayscale Investments’ head of research Zach Pandl expects Ether to benefit more than Bitcoin as Donald Trump takes the office in January.

Trump has already promised regulatory clarity and more accommodative policies for digital assets.

His pro-crypto stance may prove to be a meaningful tailwind for Ethereum as it has more extensive use cases than Bitcoin that “require clear rules of the road from regulators to fulfill its vision,” as per Pandl.

Ether has been in a sharp uptrend in recent weeks. Since election day, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has rallied close to 50%.

Trump 2.0 is not baked into Ether’s price yet

Ethereum has been suffering what Mark Connors of Onramp describes as the “middle child syndrome”. Investors continued to favour its younger sibling Solana and its older sibling BTC until fairly recently.

But their preference could shuffle under the new administration as the potential impact of Trump’s pro-crypto policies are “not priced in yet … we’re seeing price discovery take place as we speak to determine the next price level.”

His accommodative stance on cryptocurrencies could help ETH “lead in tokenization, stablecoins, and DeFi and really solidify itself as the global settlement layer for finance,” as per Zach Pandl.

Versus its year-to-date low, Ethereum is up 60% at writing.

Ether funds could win under Trump presidency

Pandl is bullish as regulatory clarity will enable investors to stake their Ethereum for passive income as well.

It may also drive institutional money to the Ether exchange-traded funds that have been rather lethargic since their launch in July.

But capital has already started to flow into these ETFs now that Donald Trump is scheduled to be sworn in as the 47^th President of the United States.

Despite an ongoing rally in Ether since the election day, it’s still a laggard versus Bitcoin that has well over doubled this year. The CoinDesk 20 index is also up 94% (way more than ETH) year-to-date.

But all it means is Ether has more room to run higher in 2025, Pandl concluded in his recent note.

Could Ethereum surpass $1 trillion market cap?

Another expert who’s uber bullish on what the future holds for Ethereum is Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan.

The new Congress, he’s convinced, will pass stablecoin legislation that will help Ether surpass $1 trillion in market cap. “Ethereum is the dominant chain for issuing stablecoins, it’s a dominant market for DeFi, it’s been the favoured public blockchain for large Wall Street firms to build on it,” Hougan argued in a recent report.  

He quoted Onyx – the Ethereum-based blockchain that JPMorgan uses for real-time cross-border transactions as an example. Note that famed investor Jim Cramer also has Ether in his personal portfolio.

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The global toy market, a $108.7 billion industry in 2023 (Circana), is witnessing a significant shift. Fast-growing e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu, known for their ultra-low prices and vast selection of primarily unbranded goods, are aggressively expanding into the toy sector, capitalizing on the lucrative holiday shopping season.

While established giants like Amazon, Walmart, and Target remain dominant (holding nearly 70% of the US market, according to D.A. Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser), Shein and Temu are rapidly gaining traction, particularly among budget-conscious consumers.

Shein and Temu’s growing market share

Shein, renowned for its inexpensive apparel, reports double-digit year-over-year growth in toy sales volume.

Meanwhile, Temu is experiencing a surge in toy-related searches.

Kantar data reveals that 13% of US holiday shoppers plan to purchase gifts from Temu this year, a substantial increase from 9% in 2023.

Further supporting this trend, Facteus data shows a rise in US credit card spending on both platforms this month compared to last year.

The influx of shoppers to these platforms is even influencing major toy manufacturers.

MGA Entertainment, the creator of L.O.L. Surprise! dolls, is considering selling its products on Shein and Temu to reach a broader consumer base, as CEO Isaac Larian told Reuters, “We want to reach (all levels) of consumers, not just the people with average incomes.”

This decision highlights the growing appeal of these platforms to budget-conscious shoppers, particularly those earning less than $50,000 annually, a demographic significantly impacted by rising consumer prices since 2021, according to Bank of America credit card data.

European markets show a similar trend, particularly among 18-to-34-year-olds in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK, with 39% having purchased toys or games on these platforms since the start of 2024, and that number rising to 60% among younger consumers, according to a September study by Circana.

The counterfeit controversy

However, the rapid growth of Shein and Temu in the toy sector hasn’t been without controversy.

Concerns over counterfeit and unauthorized products are prominent.

Mattel, the maker of Barbie, confirmed it does not directly sell to these platforms and its distributors are not authorized to do so, as reported by Reuters.

Yet, listings of Mattel’s Uno cards on Temu and Hot Wheels cars on Shein included claims of authenticity, raising questions about intellectual property rights and product legitimacy.

Responding to these concerns, a Shein spokesperson told Reuters that suppliers are required to certify product authenticity and non-infringement, with a dedicated team ensuring compliance.

Temu, after receiving inquiries regarding the unauthorized Uno listings, promptly removed the products and launched an investigation, stating this is part of their “standard operating procedure for dealing with products suspected of non-compliance or subject of a complaint.”

Addressing concerns

Despite the opportunities, concerns remain regarding counterfeit products, particularly “dupes,” or imitation products.

MGA Entertainment’s CEO, Isaac Larian, expressed concerns about counterfeit versions of its new Miniverse brand, highlighting the potential safety hazards posed by improperly labeled or unsafe imitations.

Spin Master has also voiced concerns about counterfeit versions of its “Ms Rachel” doll on Temu, highlighting the lack of safety testing for these knockoffs.

Temu responded that they investigated and removed these products upon notice from Spin Master.

Fat Brain Toys president Mark Carson remains hesitant, preferring to observe the situation before deciding to sell on these platforms.

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India’s economic growth has decelerated to its slowest pace in almost two years, raising concerns about the nation’s overall economic outlook for the fiscal year ending March 2025.

The Statistics Ministry announced on Friday that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.4% in the three months ending September 2024, marking the weakest performance since the fourth quarter of 2022.

This figure falls significantly short of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection of 7% growth for the period.

The unexpected slowdown has prompted several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, to revise their GDP growth forecasts downwards, with some predicting growth as low as 6.4% for the full fiscal year.

Pressure mounts on the Reserve Bank of India

The disappointing GDP figures place increased pressure on the RBI to consider a potential interest rate cut.

The central bank currently forecasts 7.2% growth for the entire year.

However, with the latest data indicating a weaker-than-expected performance, the possibility of a rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy decision on December 6th has become a topic of considerable discussion.

Sakshi Gupta, an economist at HDFC Bank Ltd., told Bloomberg, “While we expect the RBI to keep the policy rate unchanged at its meeting next week, the possibility of a move in the February policy for a rate cut has increased.”

The yield on India’s 10-year bond dropped 5 basis points to 6.76% following the GDP announcement, reflecting the market’s reaction to the slower-than-expected growth.

Underlying factors contributing to the economic slowdown

The decline in last quarter’s growth is largely attributed to weaker performance in key sectors.

Manufacturing, electricity and gas production experienced notable slowdowns, while the mining sector even contracted.

Several economic factors have contributed to this slowdown, including a slump in company profits, falling wages, and persistent inflationary pressures.

Despite these headwinds, the RBI has maintained its policy rate unchanged for nearly two years, with Governor Shaktikanta Das recently characterizing a rate cut at this juncture as “very risky” given the ongoing inflation concerns.

Political and social implications of slowing growth

The economic slowdown’s impact extends beyond purely financial concerns.

High borrowing costs, a point recently raised by prominent ministers in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, including the finance minister, are hindering economic progress.

Furthermore, weak growth threatens India’s ability to fully leverage its demographic dividend.

The rising unemployment rate, particularly among young people, emerged as a major political concern during this year’s elections, contributing to the ruling party’s less-than-stellar performance at the polls.

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