Estee Lauder stock price has been in a strong freefall, turning one of the most iconic companies in the United States into a fallen angel. It has plunged by almost 80% from its all-time high of $358 to the current $72.9, while its market cap has moved from $140 billion to $28 billion. 

Why Estee Lauder stock price has crashed

There are several reasons why the Estee Lauder stock price has crashed hard in the past few months. 

First, like other companies with exposure to the Chinese market, the company’s growth has largely stalled as consumer spending slows. Its annual revenue peaked at over $17.7 billion in 2021 and then moved to $15.9 billion in 2022 and $15.6 billion in 2023. Its trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue fell to $15.4 billion. 

Second, Estee Lauder’s profits have virtually disappeared in the past few years. Its annual revenue dropped from $2.4 billion in 2021 to just $217 million in the TTM, a figure that may continue falling in the near term.

The most recent financial results showed that Estee Lauder’s sales continued falling in the last quarter. Its net sales dell by 4% to $3.52 billion, with organic ones falling by 5% because of China. The CEO, Fabrizio Freda, said:

“Our first quarter results are largely aligned with our outlook on an adjusted basis, despite the fact that the expected headwinds in China and Asia travel retail were greater than anticipated.”

Additionally, Estee Lauder made a $156 million net loss, partially because of a $159 million charge associated with its talcum litigation. The company was accused of having talc, a carcinogen, in some of its products. 

Estee Lauder stock could also be impacted by the incoming Donald Trump administration that has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs on imported goods. Such a move will likely lead to retaliation in China, a place where Estee Lauder wants to continue growing. 

Analysts are pessimistic about its sales growth, with the average revenue estimate being $14.9 billion, a 4.5% drop below what it made last year. On the positive side, they expect it to return to growth in 2025 when its revenue will move to $15.47 billion. Its earnings per share is expected to move from $1.64 this year to $2.7 in the next financial year.

The other potential catalyst is that it will have a new CEO in January when Stephane de La Faverie will take over. In some instances, a change in management is usually a good step towards a turnaround.

Read more: The rise and fall of Estee Lauder as its stock price melts away

EL stock faces an uphill battle

Wall Street analysts are still cautious about Estee Lauder, with their average target being at $80, higher than the current $72.97. Most of them, including those at DA Davidson, Deutsche Bank, and TD Cowen have a neutral rating on the stock.

The daily chart shows that the EL share price has continued to make a series of lower lows and lower highs in the past few years. It has dropped below the key support levels like $130 and $100. $130 was its lowest level in March, while $100 was both a pyschological point and the lowest level in October last year.

Estee Lauder stock has remained below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling that bears are in control for now. 

The stock has formed a near-perfect Elliot Wave and is now at the fifth section, meaning that it could start a corrective wave. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will bounce back some time in 2025 as investors buy the dip. Besides, it has become one of the cheapest companies in the industry. It is also under substantial activist pressure, which could see it have a turnaround. 

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United Airlines (UAL) stock price is beating other global airlines like IAG, the parent company of British Airways, Delta, American, and Southwest. Its stock has jumped by 150% this year, while IAG has jumped by 71.35%, Southwest’s 16%, and Delta Air Line’s 61%. This surge has brought its market cap to over $31.8 billion.

United Airlines stock price crossed a key level

The weekly chart shows that the UAL share price has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months. It has risen for 16 consecutive weeks, something it has never done before.

The stock also recently made a golden cross pattern as the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. In most periods, this is usually one of the most bullish patterns, especially, when it happens on the weekly chart.

United Airlines shares have also crossed the important resistance level at $64, its highest level in March 2021. Most notably, it has now just flipped the crucial resistance point at $95.85, its highest level in July 2019. 

Other technicals are also bullish on the United Airlines share price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued to point upwards, with the former being at the extremely overbought level.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $100. Still, the risk is that airlines are usually highly cyclical companies that rise and fall. As such, there is a likelihood that it will suffer a harsh reversal in the near term.

UAL stock chart | Source: TradingView

Why UAL stock is beating its peers

There are several reasons why United Airlines is doing better than its global peers like Delta and American.

The most important one is that the company did not fire its pilots during the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, when the industry reopened, it had ready staff as other companies battled with a substantial shortage.

The company has also been at the forefront of its fleet modernization process, a costly move that will make it a more profitable firm in the future. It has ordered 110 new aircraft that will start being delivered in 2028. These places are 50 787-9s and 60 Airbus A321neos. Altogether, its order book is of about 270 planes.

The company has also options for 50 787 and 40 more A321neo planes. It has also ordered 20 Boom Overture supersonic jets that are estimated to be faster and more efficient than the Concorde. 

United Airlines is also growing at a faster pace than other companies. Its forward revenue growth is 10%, while Delta and American have much lower metrics. 

Most importantly, this growth has come at a profitable level, a situation that has made UAL the second most profitable airline in the US after Delta. It has a net profit margin of 4.95% compared to Delta and America’s 7.7% and 0.51%.

Read more: United Airlines to ‘capitalise on opportunity only $UAL has’ after Q1 earnings

The most recent financial results showed that United’s pre-tax earnings came in at $1.3 billion as its earnings per share jumped. As a result, under Scott Kirby, United Airlines has started to return substantial sums of money to its shareholders, which explains why its stock has jumped. 

In the last quarterly earnings, United Airlines said that it would repurchase up to $1.5 billion of outstanding shares. It is also adding new routes to Mongolia and Greenland in a bid to provide more services to its customers. 

Additionally, the company is increasing its US business, where it is the third-biggest player. To do that, the company is up gauging, where it is replacing its smaller planes with bigger ones. 

Therefore, United Airlines stock is soaring as investors cheer the shareholder returns and the hopes that it can catch up with Delta in terms of profitability. 

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Lego and Formula One (F1) are joining forces in a landmark partnership aimed at bringing motorsport closer to a younger, family-oriented audience.

Announced in September 2024, this collaboration has already made waves with the unveiling of F1-themed Lego sets at the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

Spanning various difficulty levels, the sets cater to fans of all ages and promise to deepen engagement with the sport.

This multi-year collaboration signals a bold step for F1 as it seeks to broaden its appeal and solidify its growing global fan base.

F1-themed Lego sets to launch in 2024

The partnership between Lego and F1 will see the launch of exclusive sets capturing the essence of the motorsport.

These will range from beginner-level builds for younger children to intricate recreations of F1 pitstops, race cars, and collectibles for avid fans.

One standout feature is the Lego Speed Champions series, which meticulously replicates the 2024 F1 season’s cars from each of the ten teams.

The sets aim to bring F1’s high-octane drama into living rooms worldwide, offering enthusiasts a hands-on way to connect with the sport.

Beyond retail, Lego will have a presence at F1 events, hosting pop-ups at Grands Prix across the globe.

These interactive spaces will allow fans to build, play, and engage with the sport in innovative ways, creating a bridge between F1 and its younger audience.

F1’s surging popularity drives collaboration

Formula One’s appeal has seen a dramatic rise in recent years, partly driven by Netflix’s hit series Drive to Survive.

Offering a behind-the-scenes glimpse into the lives of drivers and teams, the show has attracted millions of new fans, particularly younger viewers.

F1’s viewership figures reflect this shift, with over four million fans aged 8-12 residing in Europe and the US alone.

On social media, 40% of the sport’s Instagram followers are under 25, highlighting its increasing relevance among younger demographics.

This collaboration with Lego is part of F1’s broader strategy to tap into this expanding fan base.

Since Liberty Media acquired the sport in 2017, F1 has focused on creating year-round engagement opportunities, moving beyond race weekends to maintain an “always-on” connection with its audience.

Lego’s expertise in family engagement

Lego, with its 92-year history of creating timeless toys, is perfectly positioned to support F1’s ambitions.

Known for its ability to resonate with children and adults alike, the Danish toy company brings invaluable expertise in fostering family engagement.

Lego’s past collaborations with F1 teams, such as McLaren Racing, provided valuable insights into what fans desire.

The success of these one-off products laid the groundwork for this more expansive partnership, which represents Lego’s first collaboration with the entire F1 franchise.

What does the future hold for Lego and F1’s partnership?

For F1, the Lego partnership represents an opportunity to secure the next generation of fans.

By offering entry-level sets that simplify the sport’s complex strategies, F1 aims to cultivate lifelong enthusiasts.

Emily Prazer, F1’s Chief Commercial Officer, emphasized that this collaboration aligns with the sport’s goal of engaging fans beyond race day.

The interactive and educational nature of Lego sets allows young fans to develop a deeper understanding of F1, fostering long-term loyalty.

Meanwhile, Lego gains access to a rapidly expanding global fan base, further solidifying its position as a leader in the toy industry.

With the partnership set to officially kick off in 2024, both brands are poised to benefit significantly from this synergy.

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US President-elect Donald Trump’s fondness for tariffs may lead to American consumers bearing the brunt of high costs once again. 

Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election has made it clear that the Republican is likely to increase tariffs on all imported goods to the country. 

Trump has already promised sweeping tariffs to bolster the US economy, protect American industries, promote manufacturing, and reduce reliance on foreign shipments. 

The President-elect has also said that he intended to implement 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 10-20% on products from other countries. 

He argued that this is expected to create more factory jobs, shrink the federal deficit, and lower prices for American-made products by making foreign goods more expensive. 

However, tariffs imposed during the first Trump term – and continued and extended under Biden –  did not achieve all of the promised outcomes. 

“Furthermore, our research shows that if the new tariffs are fully passed on, they could increase inflation and cost American consumers up to $2,400 per capita annually,” ING Group’s analysts said. 

This potential increase in consumer costs and inflation could have widespread economic implications, particularly in an economy where consumer spending accounts for 70% of all activity.

Washing machine prices soared under Trump’s policies

In February 2018, a 20% tariff was imposed on all imported large residential washing machines. 

According to the Consumer Price Inflation report, there was no immediate impact for the first four months as retailers sold off their existing inventory that wasn’t subject to the tariff. 

However, consumer prices increased by 12% in the following months, according to ING Group.

“Since US manufacturers produce washing machines that are not subject to these tariffs, it appears that consumers bore more than 60% of the tariff cost on foreign-made appliances,” according to ING. 

“The remaining costs were absorbed by retailers’ profit margins or through price reductions by foreign producers,” the analysts said. 

Over time, prices gradually decreased again as consumers began substituting domestically made washing machines and foreign manufacturers likely agreed to further price cuts.

Tariffs on Chinese goods boosted US customs revenue but led to higher prices

The trade war between the US and China under Trump’s previous presidency led to both sides imposing additional tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods. 

The Tax Foundation recently estimated that the Trump-Biden tariffs that we have seen so far – as President Biden kept most of the Trump administration’s tariffs in place – are equal to an average annual tax increase on US households of $200 to $300 per year based on actual revenue collections data. 

Customs duties revenues have risen sharply since the implementation of additional tariffs. 

This significant rise in revenue is largely due to the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which boosted customs duties by around 0.2% of GDP from 2020 through 2022, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 

Analysts at ING Group said despite a rise in customs revenues, this revenue is actually paid for by the importing country or the consumer. 

This means a lower profit margin for the importing country and higher prices for the consumers. 

The analysts said:

Although customs duties contribute to the federal budget and are thus transferred back to households via public services or infrastructure developments, they do work as a tax, increase consumer prices overall and can lead to higher inequality and less consumer choice.

The White House, however, pointed out recently that even with Trump’s new tariff proposals, it is mathematically unlikely that these would replace revenue raised by other sources. 

“Shifts in consumer behavior are indeed one of the reasons why increasing tariffs cannot become a primary source of government revenue,” the analysts added. 

Tariffs act as taxes on consumers

With increased tariffs on imported goods imminent when Trump takes office at the White House again, disposable income may shrink. 

Last year, the US imported goods worth $3.1 trillion, with $427 billion coming from China. 

“Applying a 60% tariff on these Chinese imports, and a 10-20% tariff rate on the rest of the world, would mean custom duty revenues in the range of $523bn to $790bn – assuming no change in consumer behavior,” ING analysts said. 

The disposable personal income in the US in 2023 was $20.547 trillion, which would mean the proposed tariff increase could represent 2.5%-3.9% of the income if fully passed on to the consumers, according to ING Group.  

The agency’s calculations showed that this would represent $1,500-$2,400 per capita income. 

“This is significant in an economy where consumer spending accounts for 70% of all activity,” ING Group said. 

The analysts noted:

The increase in the cost of goods, coupled with potential supply-side constraints in the labour market as a result of Trump’s proposed immigration policies, could also lead to a one percentage point increase in inflation, in our view.

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Canoo stock price has collapsed this year, raising concerns that the electric vehicle company may be about to collapse. GOEV shares have crashed by over 53% in the last 30 days and 92% this year, bringing its market cap to about $43 million. This is a major downfall for a company that was valued at over $4 billion a few years ago.

GOEV stock has collapsed despite progress

The GOEV share price continued its strong downtrend even after the company published fairly encouraging financial results. 

These numbers showed that its revenue for the quarter stood at $0.9 million, bringing the year-to-date figure to $1.5 million. These are small numbers because the company has just started shipping its vehicles recently.

Most importantly, Canoo’s cost cuts have helped improve its bottom line as the adjusted EBITDA loss was $37.7 million, a 2% improvement from what it made last year. The loss per share was 54 cents, a big improvement from $1.71 last year.

The results also showed that Canoo improved its cash burn during the quarter. It incinerated $31.3 million after burning $39.4 million in the same period last year. 

These numbers mean that the company is making progress in managing its costs. This trend has been helped by its ongoing consolidation of operations from California to Texas and Oklahoma, where it has received a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) authorisation. 

Canoo expects that its business will continue making progress in the fourth quarter of 2024. It sees its cash outflow moving to between $30 million and $40 million. Its adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between minus $30 million and $35 million. 

To a large extent, Canoo is a good company that is building vehicles with a large market potential, among fleets. Indeed, it has already received large orders from popular organizations like the USPS, Walmart, Okla, and Jazeera Paints.

These firms own thousands of internal combustion engine vehicles that they will want to replace with EVs over time. Most importantly, the industry, especially in the United States, is not all that competitive for now. Some of the biggest competitors are firms like Workhorse Group and Rivian.

Balance sheet issues

Canoo’s biggest challenge is that its balance sheet cannot support its operations for now. The company will need to continually raise cash from investors since it has a long path towards profitability. 

Companies like Rivian and Lucid Group provide more signs on how electric vehicle companies take long before turning a profit. Rivian, which started delivering its vehicles a few months ago, has continued to report large losses over time. Similarly, Lucid Group has lost money, leading to a bailout from Saudi Arabia.

Canoo’s balance sheet woes saw it raise $27 million in the third quarter and another $12 million credit facility recently. These funds are not enough for a company that expects to burn over $30 million in the fourth quarter. 

This means that Canoo, which has issued a going concern warning before, will struggle in the coming months.

What next for Canoo stock?

GOEV chart by TradingView

From a macro perspective, we believe that the post-Trump election slump of EV companies was an exaggerated move. We don’t think that he will end the tax credits of electric vehicles because of their popularity among consumers and manufacturers. Also, Trump is close to Elon Musk who runs the biggest EV company in the world.

On the positive side, there are signs that the GOEV stock price could stage a strong comeback now that it has formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is characterized by two falling and converging trendlines. 

In most periods, a strong comeback happens when the two lines are about to converge, which is happening now. This, coupled with the fact that Canoo has a high short interest of 11%, means that it could have a short squeeze soon. 

If this happens, the Canoo stock could jump to $3.30, which is about 670% above the current level. In the long term, however, the company will likely remain under pressure as challenges remain. 

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China’s outbound mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity could see a significant uptick as US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs push mainland firms to accelerate their globalization strategies.

Experts suggest that fears of tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on Chinese goods are driving businesses to seek alternatives to mitigate reliance on the US market, according to a report by South China Morning Post.

“More tariffs may mean the globalization of Chinese companies is going to get faster,” said Stanley Lah, Asia-Pacific and China M&A services leader at Deloitte.

“Chinese companies will consider moving faster to look for alternatives in shipping or selling to the US.”

Outbound M&A beats greenfield investments

Chinese companies are increasingly turning to outbound M&A as a quicker way to achieve global market efficiency, compared to greenfield investments like setting up factories or offices abroad.

Despite a frail global M&A environment, Chinese firms see this route as vital.

According to London Stock Exchange Group data, outbound M&A deals by Chinese companies fell 16.5% to $17 billion this year but are showing signs of rebounding in strategic sectors.

Last year, outbound M&A rose 59% year on year to $27 billion, though still far below the $202 billion peak of 2016.

Sectors with Beijing’s blessings drive deal-making

Certain sectors—such as technology, manufacturing, and new energy—are benefiting from government backing, which could sustain the momentum in outbound M&A.

Federico Bazzoni, CEO of investment banking at Vantage Capital Markets, highlighted these areas as prime targets for Chinese dealmakers.

For instance, Tencent Holdings recently acquired Cyprus-based game maker Easybrain for $1.2 billion, and Midea Group bought the climate division of Swiss firm Arbonia for $811 million earlier this year.

“Valuations are coming down, and we’re seeing some activity return,” Bazzoni said.

However, mega deals akin to ChemChina’s $43 billion Syngenta acquisition in 2017 remain rare due to regulatory uncertainties.

Regulatory and geopolitical hurdles dampen mega deals

Geopolitical tensions and complex regulatory approvals continue to weigh on the M&A landscape.

“Geopolitical sentiment is sensitive, and deals are complicated, pushing down the headline deals in recent years,” Deloitte’s Lah said.

Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism for a rebound in 2025.

“State-owned enterprises and corporates are waiting to see what happens with domestic and US policies before engaging with new targets,” Bazzoni added.

Inbound M&A dims under Trump’s shadow

While outbound activity shows potential, the picture for inbound M&A in China remains bleak.

Trump’s likely intensification of restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technologies such as AI and semiconductors has discouraged US investors from entering the Chinese market.

Although Beijing has reassured foreign investors of its openness, long-term capital remains hesitant.

“Investors are looking to confirm that the country’s efforts to support economic development are sustainable,” said Lah.

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Archer Aviation stock price has gone parabolic in the past few weeks, helped by a positive statement from Needham analysts and commercialisation hopes. The ACHR share price jumped to $6.22 on Friday, its highest level since December 2023 and 120% above its lowest level in October. 

Archer Aviation stock is about to form a golden cross

Technically, there are signs that the ACHR share price will continue doing well in the coming months. 

The most significant catalyst is that the stock is about to form a golden cross pattern, which is a rare event when the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross each other.

In this case, the 50-day EMA stands at $3.83, while the 200-day EMA is at $3.94 and the spread is narrowing by the day.

Indeed, a golden cross has already happened when you consider the Weighted Moving Average (WMA), which is usually more responsive than the EMA. 

Archer Aviation stock has risen above the important resistance level at $5.57, its highest level in July, and the neckline of the slanted double-bottom pattern at around $3. A double-bottom is one of the most bullish reversal patterns in the market. 

Archer Aviation shares have the momentum as the Average Direction Index (ADX) has jumped to 42. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards in the past few months. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will continue rising in the coming weeks as bulls target last year’s high of $7.50, which is about 24% above the current level. For this bullish view to happen, the stock will need to rise above the key resistance point at $6.22, its highest level on Friday. 

Such a move will invalidate the doji pattern that has formed. A doji is made up of a small body and long upper and lower shadows and is a sign that an asset opened and closed at the same price. It is one of the most popular bearish reversal signs.

In line with the doji candlestick, there is a likelihood that the stock will form a break and retest pattern, where it retests the support at $5.47 and then resumes the uptrend. 

Read more: Joby and Archer Aviation shares soar after new Buy ratings but patience key for those stocking up

ACHR has made progress

Archer Aviation stock has jumped after the company made substantial progress as it matches towards commercialisation of its EVTOL aircraft in either 2025 or 2026. 

It is about to complete building of its manufacturing facility, which will be used to build its piloted aircraft for more testing and early commercialisation. 

The company is also nearing the completion of Phase 3 of its FAA certification, which will be followed by the final phase. If this happens, it will make Archer Aviation one of the earliest companies to receive these documents from the FAA.

Archer Aviation has already made several deals that will help it become a leader in the eVTOL space. Most recently, it reached a deal with Soracle, a joint venture between Japan Airlines and Sumitomo Corporation. The venture will make an order worth about $500 million, bringing Archer’s order book to $6 billion. 

Archer Aviation has also raised cash from Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep and Chrysler. These funds will go a long way in helping it deal with the manufacturing, R&D, and certification process. 

Most importantly, Stellantis will support it in the manufacturing process by providing the needed cash. It will then receive compensation by newly issued shares by the company, a sign that it sees immense value. 

Read more: Archer Aviation: risk/reward analysis for this flying car stock

Archer faces major headwinds

Still, the biggest challenge the company faces is whether there will be sufficient demand for its aircraft in the long term. The other key issue is whether the company will continue diluting its shareholders as it has done in the past. Its outstanding shares have jumped from about 50 million in 2021 to over 383 million today.

History shows that new disruptive companies take a long time to become profitable. Three examples of this are companies like Rivian, VinFast, and Lucid Group, which are well-known bands in the electric vehicle industry. The three firms have continued to incinerate billions of dollars, leading to their bailouts. 

The most recent results showed that Archer Aviation’s costs and losses continued rising in the last quarter. Its operating expenses jumped to $122 million, leading to a net loss of over $115 million. The net loss was much higher than the $106 million it shed in the last quarter and the $51 million it had in the same period last year. 

The company ended the quarter with $501 million, meaning that it will need additional cash in 2023 since its expenses are still high. 

Still, the Archer Aviation stock price may continue to do well as investors anticipate more revenues when its commercialisation process starts. 

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