A new study conducted by CropLife Brasil and agribusiness consultant Celeres Consultoria discovered that soybean seed theft costs Brazil a whopping 10 billion reais (roughly $1.76 billion) per year.

The situation has an influence not just on the country’s agricultural economy, but it also underscores the larger challenges that enterprises in the seed, chemical, and biotechnology sectors face.

As Brazil maintains its position as the world’s leading soybean producer and exporter, the illegal market for counterfeit seeds poses considerable challenges.

The scope of seed piracy

According to the research, pirated soybean plant seeds currently take up around 11% of the land area with a soybean canopy in Brazil.

Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, reported on the total area planted for soybeans at 46.15 million hectares (114.039 million acres) in the 2023/24 planting season alone.

Between 2024 and 2025, the area of soybeans is estimated to be larger, growing to 47.45 million hectares, says the study.

However, the widespread use of pirated seeds in Brazil puts their agricultural sector at risk, as well as the credibility of this economic activity on a global scale.

Producers who depend on these frequently low-quality seeds face reduced quantities and lower-quality produce. Since Brazil competes with the US and Argentina for a top place in world soybean markets, the impact of this piracy is direct and far-reaching.

The financial fallout

Seed piracy has huge financial consequences. The study estimates that this illegal trade could generate a loss of around 1 billion ($176.15 million) reais in potential tax revenue over the next decade.

The report also suggests that, by fighting seed piracy, investments would be directed to improve seed varieties, and the resources for the purpose could reach 900 million ($158.99) reais in a decade.

The sales tax loss is not just about agriculture but also about something that uses public funds, which could be used for essential services and infrastructure.

Seed piracy does not merely undermine an entire industry; it indirectly stunts economic growth at the national level.

The findings serve as a wake-up signal to agricultural stakeholders. CropLife Brasil, which represents a group of seed businesses, biotechnology corporations, and pesticide and bioinput manufacturers, highlights the critical need for joint measures to address the situation.

The availability of pirated seeds directly threatens innovation and the development of new technologies in agriculture, which may otherwise increase productivity and sustainability.

Agriculture is critical to Brazil’s economy and employment. The Brazilian agribusiness sector is one of the country’s greatest employers, and seed piracy might jeopardize the livelihoods of many workers if left uncontrolled.

By reducing illegal trade, Brazil might improve its status in international markets and secure jobs in the sector.

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Nvidia may have been the AI darling in recent years, but Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) is currently a better pick to bet on a continued momentum in artificial intelligence, says EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson.

Jackson’s remarks arrive as BABA warms up to launching “Qwen 3” by the end of April, as per sources that spoke with Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity.

Qwen is the series of Alibaba’s flagship AI models.

Alibaba stock may still be undervalued

Alibaba stock has rallied more than 60% since the start of 2025. Still, EMJ’s founder Eric Jackson remains positive on BABA as he continues to see it as “very undervalued”.

He recently sold NVDA to load up on Alibaba stock since it could “surprise people with a DeepSeek, Alipay, or Ant Financial kind of an announcement” this year, the market veteran told CNBC today.

Jackson likes the Chinese e-commerce and tech behemoth also for the strength of its financials. In February, BABA reported earnings for its third quarter that handily topped Street estimates.

More importantly, the AI stock currently pays a dividend yield of 1.51%, which makes it all the more exciting to own ahead of a potential recession.

BABA shares are insulated from Trump’s tariffs

Investors should be pounding the table on Alibaba stock at writing because, on top of an incredible AI play, it’s a “great way to avoid the tariff tantrum” as well, according to Quint Tatro of Joule Financial.

BABA is minimally exposed to tariffs as it generates as much as 90% of its revenue from China.

The US makes up less than 5% of its sales annually, Tatro said in a recent CNBC interview, adding, “they’ll really be isolated from any tariff talk.”

The Chinese giant plans on spending more than $50 billion on AI over the next three years, which may help unlock significant further upside in its share price, he added.

Versus their 52-week low, Alibaba shares are up some 85% at the time of writing.

How fast is Alibaba’s AI revenue growing?

Alibaba has seen triple-digit growth in its AI revenue over the past six quarters.

In its latest earnings release, Eddie Wu, the company’s chief executive, told investors:

This quarter’s results demonstrated substantial progress in our user first, AI-driven strategies and the reaccelerated growth of our core businesses.

At the time, BABA also said AI would further accelerate revenue growth at its Cloud Intelligence Group through the remainder of 2025.

Following the news of an upgraded AI model coming soon, analysts at Mizuho also raised their price target on Alibaba shares to $170 this week, which translates to about a 35% upside from current levels.

All in all, while BABA stock has rallied hard in recent months, experts seem to be keeping bullish, calling for further upside in it as we advance through this year.

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US President Donald Trump will host El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele at the White House on April 14, with talks expected to centre on cooperation around border security, criminal deportation, and a possible on Bitcoin.

The invitation follows Trump’s public praise of Bukele’s ongoing efforts to clamp down on organised crime and his administration’s willingness to house criminals deported from the US in El Salvador’s new mega-prison.

US deportations and gangs

Bukele has garnered international attention for jailing nearly 2% of El Salvador’s population in a sweeping crackdown on criminal gangs, particularly MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.

His controversial tactics, including transporting prisoners in chains to a high-security facility, have sparked global debate.

However, they have earned him support from Trump, who has linked El Salvador’s security model to broader US interests in regional stability and deportation policy.

In a formal letter dated April 1 and shared by Bukele on X, Trump commended his Salvadoran counterpart for helping facilitate the repatriation of US-deported criminals.

The letter highlighted El Salvador’s willingness to accommodate gang members in its supermax prison as a crucial element in deepening bilateral cooperation.

This move aligns with Trump’s tougher stance on immigration and criminal repatriation.

The president has emphasised removing undocumented gang members from the US, and El Salvador’s new facility offers a solution that reduces the domestic burden while enhancing regional cooperation.

Bitcoin and crypto talks

While crime and border security are expected to dominate the formal agenda, both leaders have shown increasing interest in Bitcoin, adding a financial layer to the upcoming talks.

El Salvador, under Bukele, holds more than 6,100 BTC as part of its national reserves, after becoming the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has initiated a National Bitcoin Reserve, composed of seized digital assets from criminal operations.

Although details remain limited, the shared focus could set the stage for potential dialogue on cryptocurrency regulation, blockchain collaboration, and even US-Salvadoran digital asset partnerships.

No additional world leaders have been invited to the meeting, suggesting the bilateral scope may allow for more detailed discussions beyond security.

These could include financial cooperation and the alignment of crypto policies, especially as both administrations navigate the global push for digital asset oversight.

Tariffs and trade ties

With recent tariffs imposed on several Latin American nations, El Salvador is expected to raise trade-related concerns during the meeting.

Bukele’s government may seek relief from new duties on exports to the US, which remains El Salvador’s largest trading partner.

The Central American nation’s economy is heavily reliant on exports of textiles, coffee, and sugar.

Improved trade terms or exemptions could offer a boost to El Salvador’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

This potential shift would also align with Trump’s broader regional strategy of encouraging investment and cooperation with compliant governments.

In recent months, El Salvador has strengthened its economic links with the US through security and migration cooperation.

Further talks could explore trade incentives in exchange for continued support with deportation logistics and regional anti-gang operations.

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US President Donald Trump has imposed the steepest American tariffs in a century, targeting over 60 nations in a sweeping trade measure aimed at addressing what he calls unfair trade imbalances.

India has been hit with a 26% tariff on its exports to the US, making it one of the most affected countries.

Announcing the decision on Wednesday, Trump described Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “great friend” but argued that India has not treated the US fairly in trade.

“India, very, very tough. Very, very tough. The Prime Minister just left. He’s a great friend of mine, but I said, ‘You’re a friend of mine, but you’re not treating us right.’ They charge us 52 per cent. You have to understand, we charge them almost nothing, for years and years and decades,” Trump said, presenting a chart listing countries and their tariff rates.

While the blanket 26% tariff affects Indian exports broadly, certain sectors will be treated differently.

For example, Indian automobile exports to the US will face a 25% tariff imposed on all auto imports globally, and not 51% (25%+26%).

However, industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and minerals will remain exempt from reciprocal tariffs.

Markets react negatively to reciprocal tariffs, but analysts see scope for negotiation

Following Trump’s announcement, Indian stock markets declined, reflecting investor concerns over the impact of tariffs on exports.

As of 12 PM Thursday, the BSE Sensex was down by 204.19 points (0.27%) at 76,413.25, while the Nifty 50 fell 43.65 points (0.19%) to 23,288.70.

However, analysts suggest that India has the ability to negotiate tariff relief through trade talks.

“The ministry is analysing the impact of the announced tariffs… It is a mixed bag and not a setback for India,” a senior commerce ministry official told PTI, adding that discussions with the US could lead to revisions.

Brokerage firm Emkay estimates that India’s exports to the US could decline by $30-33 billion (0.8-0.9% of GDP) under the new tariffs.

However, it noted that recent trade negotiations between India and the US present an opportunity for a bilateral agreement.

“We highlight some ‘easy wins’ that India could offer the US in exchange for tariff concessions, including higher energy and defence imports, lower tariffs on specific agricultural commodities, and reduced duties on foreign electric vehicles,” Emkay said in a note.

Bernstein echoed this sentiment, predicting that India would opt for negotiation rather than escalating trade tensions.

While market reactions may be negative in the short term, the firm expects the Indian economy to recover in the latter half of the year.

India must also guard against Chinese trade responses

Beyond the immediate impact of tariffs on India, analysts are closely watching China’s response to Trump’s move.

The US has also imposed higher reciprocal tariffs on several Asian and European countries, including China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and Bangladesh.

Some analysts believe this could create opportunities for India in global trade and manufacturing.

“Trump’s decision to impose higher reciprocal tariffs on multiple Asian nations could provide India with an opening to strengthen its position in global supply chains,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Asia has been hit much more than India on tariffs, and India is less export-exposed vs EM Asia, but India is unlikely to be non-synced with EM Asia on the cyclical downturn, Emkay said.

Emkay also cautioned that China’s reaction could have unintended consequences for India.

“China’s survival response to this massive tariff blow will matter for India, given its excess industrial capacity and aggressive pricing in Asian markets. As India negotiates with the US and other trade partners, it may also need to guard against Chinese trade responses, including retaliatory tariffs that could hit domestic industries and drive disinflation,” the brokerage noted.

Experts expect a measured Indian response

While the 26% tariff is significant, some market observers believe it is not excessive compared to US duties on other countries such as China and Taiwan.

Geojit Investments Chief Investment Strategist VK Vijayakumar pointed out that India still has room to negotiate, and a potential trade deal could reduce the tariff burden.

“The market is likely to respond negatively in the short term, but a bilateral agreement could ease tariff pressures in the future,” Vijayakumar said.

Meanwhile, Narinder Wadhwa, Managing Director & CEO of SKI Capital Services, noted that US protectionist policies generally trigger risk aversion among foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).

“The Indian stock market tends to react negatively to US trade restrictions, as they increase global risk aversion. FPIs may reduce exposure to emerging markets, leading to increased volatility. Additionally, risk-off sentiment could weaken the rupee, affecting imported inflation and companies with foreign debt,” Wadhwa explained.

As the situation unfolds, attention will be on the Indian government’s response and whether negotiations with the US lead to tariff concessions that mitigate economic disruptions.

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Pharmaceutical stocks saw strong gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump announced that pharmaceuticals would be exempt from the latest round of reciprocal tariffs on global imports.

The exemption has provided a much-needed boost to the sector, particularly for Indian and European drugmakers, which rely heavily on US sales.

However, analysts have cautioned that broader tariff risks still loom over the industry.

European pharma stocks climb, but uncertainty remains

Following Trump’s announcement, major pharmaceutical stocks across Europe and Asia posted gains.

In the UK, AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) both climbed about 1.5%, while Swiss drugmaker Novartis gained 0.69%.

France’s Sanofi also edged higher by 0.3%.

However, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche fell 2.3% after its multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus failed to meet its primary endpoint in a key clinical trial.

While the immediate exemption of pharmaceuticals has been welcomed by the industry, analysts warn that uncertainties remain.

Shore Capital healthcare analyst Sean Conroy noted that a White House fact sheet indicated pharmaceuticals were excluded from the new tariff measures.

However, he added, “It is still somewhat unclear whether the broader-reaching 10% baseline tariffs could still be levied against imported drugs and vaccines.”

Similarly, analysts at Bryan Garnier Research pointed out that Trump’s mixed messaging left room for potential future tariff risks.

The US president had remarked that drugmakers “will come roaring back to the US, because if they don’t, they got a big tax to pay.”

Asian, Indian healthcare stocks rally

Asian healthcare stocks also rallied, led by Indian generic drugmakers, even as the broader market declined.

The CNX Pharma index, which tracks Indian pharmaceutical companies, surged more than 3%, marking its biggest one-day gain in 10 months.

In contrast, India’s benchmark Nifty 50 index fell 0.25% on the day.

Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, the country’s three largest drugmakers by revenue, gained between 3% and 6%.

India, one of the largest suppliers of generic medicines to the US, stands to benefit the most from the exemption.

The US accounted for nearly a third, or $9 billion, of India’s total pharmaceutical exports last fiscal year, with most of these being low-cost generic drugs.

Japan’s pharmaceutical sector also benefited, with Takeda Pharmaceuticals and Daiichi Sankyo advancing 2% and 2.7%, respectively.

However, Japan’s broader Nikkei 225 index tumbled to an eight-month low, reflecting investor concerns over the wider impact of US tariffs on global trade.

Japan’s exports to the US were also substantial, amounting to $6.34 billion in 2023, according to data from research firm OEC.

Jefferies analysts noted that while Indian drugmakers “can breathe easy for now,” the risk of future tariffs remains.

“Higher tariffs at a later date cannot be ruled out, but for now, this exemption allows Indian firms to maintain their competitive edge in the US market,” Jefferies said in a note.

What to expect in the coming days?

Looking ahead, analysts suggest that pharmaceutical companies will closely monitor the Trump administration’s stance on trade policies.

Bloomberg has reported that the US government is considering launching a Section 232 investigation into pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, similar to previous probes that resulted in tariffs on cars and aluminium.

BNP Paribas India analyst Tausif Shaikh stated, “Assuming a 10% tariff is imposed on pharma products, we expect the impact to be negligible. However, with the sector exempted from reciprocal tariffs currently, we expect a relief rally for the Nifty Pharma Index, after its 11% year-to-date decline.”

While the immediate outlook for pharmaceutical stocks appears positive, the industry remains vulnerable to policy shifts in the ongoing US trade war.

Investors and drugmakers alike will be watching closely for any further developments from Washington.

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