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The Gap stock price rose sharply earlier this month when the company reported encouraging financial reports. It rose to a high of $25.87 on November 22, its highest level since June 12 of this year. It remains in a local bear market after falling by 20% from its highest level this year.

The Gap stock in the spotlight amid market share gains

GAP shares have been in the spotlight in the past few months as investors watched its ongoing turnaround amid a soft retail environment. 

The most recent results showed that the company was gaining market share across its brands, which include firms like Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, and Athleta.

These results showed that its net sales rose by 2% in the third quarter to $3.8 billion, while its comparable sales were up by 1%. 

The company is also doing well in terms of profitability as its gross margins rose to 42.7%. Most importantly, it is managing its inventory well. The results showed that its inventory dropped by about 2% to $2.33 billion.

Most parts of The Gap’s business did well in the third quarter. Old Navy’s net sales rose by 1% in the third quarter, while Banana Republic rose by 2%. Gap’s sales were up by 1%, while Athleta jumped by 4%.

Athleta is The Gap’s answer to Lululemon Athletica and is one of the fastest-growing brand in the athleisure industry. 

Analysts are generally optimistic about GAP’s business trajectory. The average revenue estimate for the year is about $15 billion, a 0.73% increase from 2023. Its estimated revenue for the coming year is $15.24 billion, up by 1.63% on an annual basis. Gap often does better than expected in most cases.

Most importantly, The Gap’s earnings are expected to continue improving. The annual earnings per share estimate will rise from $1.34 in 2023 to $2.01 this year, followed by $2.09 in the next financial year. 

Most analysts have a neutral view of The Gap, with those at BMO and Evercore having an outperform rating. Wells Fargo has an overweight rating, while Guggenheim has a buy one. UBS is less optimistic with a sell rating on the stock. The average Gap stock forecast is $28, higher than the current $24.25. 

One reason to be optimistic is that The Gap is a fairly cheap company. It has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12, much lower than the sector median is 20. Its trailing P/E multiple is 11.2, lower than the industry median of 19. 

Also, a discounted free cash flow (DCF) model shows that the company was trading at 28% below its current price of $24.

The Gap stock price analysis

GAP chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the GAP share price was trading at $24.25 on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of $30.3. It has remained above the ascending trendline that connects its lowest swings since January this year.

This trendline is notable because it was the neckline of the head and shoulders chart pattern, a popular bearish reversal pattern. 

Therefore, there is a risk that the stock will have a bearish breakout in the next few weeks. If this happens, it may drop to about $20, which is about 20% below the current level. 

$20 is also a notable level since it is along the neckline of the H&S pattern. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $18.6, the 50% retracement level. If this happens, it may drop to $15.9, the 61.8% retracement point, and 35% below the current point. The bearish view will become invalid if the stock rises above the right shoulder level at $26.

The post The Gap stock price could drop 35% as a risky pattern forms appeared first on Invezz

AMD stock price has underperformed its top peers, especially NVIDIA, but technicals point to a potential rebound. It was trading at $137 on Friday, down by almost 40% from its highest level this year. In contrast, NVIDIA has more than doubled and become the biggest company in the world.

AMD stock price could rebound

Technicals point to a potential rebound of the AMD share price after months of weakness. The chart below shows that the stock has moved slightly below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, as we predicted in June.

The risk, however, is that the AMD share price has formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). In most periods, this is one of the riskiest patterns in the market.

On the positive side, the stock has formed an inverse head and shoulders chart pattern. In most periods, this is one of the most bullish chart patterns. It comprises a right and left shoulder and a head, which is around $120. 

The other positive thing is based on the Elliot Wave pattern. On the daily chart, the stock has formed several waves of the Elliot Wave. The first wave ended at $133, while the second corrective ended at $93, the 78.6% retracement level.

The third wave, usually the longest, ended at the year-to-date high of $227. It has now completed the fourth wave, meaning that the stock could stage a strong comeback. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at $227, which is about 66% above the current level.

On the flip side, a move below the key support at $120 will invalidate the bullish view because it will cancel the inverse H&S pattern. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at $90, the 78.6% retracememt at $90.

AMD’s AI business is growing

The potential catalyst for the AMD share price is its artificial intelligence business, which has started growing in the past few quarters. This growth is mostly because the company has created GPUs that work almost the same way as those made by NVIDIA and are lower priced.

At the same time, there are concerns about the scarcity of NVIDIA’s chips. As such, whenever that happens, many customers move to the next logical alternative, which, in this case, is AMD.

The most recent results showed that AMD delivered a record data center revenue of $3.5 billion in the third quarter, a 122% increase from the same period last year. This growth was mostly because of its ramp up of AMD Instinct and AMD EPYC CPU sales.

Analysts believe that AMD’s market share could move from roughly 10% today to as high as 30% in the next few years as its demand rises. 

The company’s client segment also continued doing well, with its sales jumping by 25% in the last quarter to $1.9 billion. As with the previous quarters, AMD’s gaming and embedded divisions continued to continued to weaken, dropping by 69% and 25%, respectively.

Valuation concerns remain

The other key challenge to have in mind is that AMD is highly overvalued compared to other companies. Data by SeekingAlpha shows that the company’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at 40.95, higher than the sector median of 25. Its price-to-sales ratio is 8.6, higher than the industry median of 4.

These are big numbers but can be justified because of its top-line revenue growth and its potential to become a key NVIDIA rival. Analysts expect AMD’s revenue will be $25.67 billion this year, up by 13% a year ago. The revenue growth will be 27% in 2025 to $32.61 billion.

There are signs that AMD’s business will do better than what analysts expect as it has done before. For example, the company’s earnings have beaten the consensus estimates in the last five consecutive quarters. 

The risk, however, is that demand for AI chips may moderate in the coming years as the top purchasers lower their purchases. Besides, there are signs that demand for AI in the real world is not growing as was widely expected. Indeed, NVIDIA’s recent results confirmed that the industry was starting to cool.

The post AMD stock price forecast: Here’s why it could rebound soon appeared first on Invezz

The global toy market, a $108.7 billion industry in 2023 (Circana), is witnessing a significant shift. Fast-growing e-commerce platforms Shein and Temu, known for their ultra-low prices and vast selection of primarily unbranded goods, are aggressively expanding into the toy sector, capitalizing on the lucrative holiday shopping season.

While established giants like Amazon, Walmart, and Target remain dominant (holding nearly 70% of the US market, according to D.A. Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser), Shein and Temu are rapidly gaining traction, particularly among budget-conscious consumers.

Shein and Temu’s growing market share

Shein, renowned for its inexpensive apparel, reports double-digit year-over-year growth in toy sales volume.

Meanwhile, Temu is experiencing a surge in toy-related searches.

Kantar data reveals that 13% of US holiday shoppers plan to purchase gifts from Temu this year, a substantial increase from 9% in 2023.

Further supporting this trend, Facteus data shows a rise in US credit card spending on both platforms this month compared to last year.

The influx of shoppers to these platforms is even influencing major toy manufacturers.

MGA Entertainment, the creator of L.O.L. Surprise! dolls, is considering selling its products on Shein and Temu to reach a broader consumer base, as CEO Isaac Larian told Reuters, “We want to reach (all levels) of consumers, not just the people with average incomes.”

This decision highlights the growing appeal of these platforms to budget-conscious shoppers, particularly those earning less than $50,000 annually, a demographic significantly impacted by rising consumer prices since 2021, according to Bank of America credit card data.

European markets show a similar trend, particularly among 18-to-34-year-olds in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK, with 39% having purchased toys or games on these platforms since the start of 2024, and that number rising to 60% among younger consumers, according to a September study by Circana.

The counterfeit controversy

However, the rapid growth of Shein and Temu in the toy sector hasn’t been without controversy.

Concerns over counterfeit and unauthorized products are prominent.

Mattel, the maker of Barbie, confirmed it does not directly sell to these platforms and its distributors are not authorized to do so, as reported by Reuters.

Yet, listings of Mattel’s Uno cards on Temu and Hot Wheels cars on Shein included claims of authenticity, raising questions about intellectual property rights and product legitimacy.

Responding to these concerns, a Shein spokesperson told Reuters that suppliers are required to certify product authenticity and non-infringement, with a dedicated team ensuring compliance.

Temu, after receiving inquiries regarding the unauthorized Uno listings, promptly removed the products and launched an investigation, stating this is part of their “standard operating procedure for dealing with products suspected of non-compliance or subject of a complaint.”

Addressing concerns

Despite the opportunities, concerns remain regarding counterfeit products, particularly “dupes,” or imitation products.

MGA Entertainment’s CEO, Isaac Larian, expressed concerns about counterfeit versions of its new Miniverse brand, highlighting the potential safety hazards posed by improperly labeled or unsafe imitations.

Spin Master has also voiced concerns about counterfeit versions of its “Ms Rachel” doll on Temu, highlighting the lack of safety testing for these knockoffs.

Temu responded that they investigated and removed these products upon notice from Spin Master.

Fat Brain Toys president Mark Carson remains hesitant, preferring to observe the situation before deciding to sell on these platforms.

The post Counterfeit concerns cloud Shein and Temu’s rapid growth in the toy market appeared first on Invezz

Black Friday, the traditional kickoff to the Christmas shopping season, arrived with a twist this year: a significantly shortened timeframe.

With only 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, compared to 31 days in 2022, retailers faced a compressed selling season, adding pressure to their holiday sales strategies.

This compressed timeframe, coupled with inflation-weary consumers, created a unique challenge for businesses aiming to maximize profits during this crucial period.

The National Retail Federation, a US retail trade group, anticipates approximately 85.6 million shoppers hitting the stores this year, a notable increase from last year’s 76 million.

Deals and discounts dominate the scene

From exclusive Taylor Swift merchandise at Target to heavily discounted puffer coats at Walmart, retailers worldwide pulled out all the stops to entice bargain-hunting customers.

In Europe, the Black Friday rush began earlier, with British retailers like John Lewis offering substantial discounts on electronics and other goods – up to £300 ($381) off Samsung TVs and significant reductions on Nespresso machines and Apple products.

Currys, a London-listed consumer electronics retailer, reported strong sales of popular items such as the PlayStation 5, air fryers, and retro technology.

The enthusiasm wasn’t limited to electronics; clothing retailers also participated, with Kate Isaienko, a shopper in London, highlighting the rising clothing prices at Zara since moving from Ukraine and seizing the Black Friday discounts as an opportunity to save.

US retailers join the fray

Across the Atlantic, major US retailers like Walmart and Target opened their doors early on Black Friday, offering a wide array of deals.

Walmart, with its 4,700 US stores, started its Black Friday sales on November 11th, offering discounts on electronics, toys, clothing, and kitchen appliances.

Target, with 1,963 locations, also initiated its sales on Thanksgiving, featuring significant price cuts on electronics, toys, and kitchen appliances.

Furthermore, Target is leveraging exclusive merchandise, such as “Wicked”-themed products, to draw customers.

The psychology of impulsive spending

“With fewer days to shop, consumers are more likely to make spontaneous purchases, contributing to retail growth during the holiday season,” Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at Circana, told Reuters.

This highlights the crucial role of impulse buying in boosting holiday sales for retailers.

Beyond the doorbusters

While traditional “doorbuster” deals remain a Black Friday staple, the shift toward online shopping continues.

To counter this trend, many major brick-and-mortar retailers are increasingly focusing on creating immersive, in-store experiences to draw customers.

Examples include Ray-Ban’s augmented reality glasses demonstrations, extra-large TVs at Best Buy, and spa services at Nordstrom.

The post Black Friday: can impulse buys rescue retailers in a shortened holiday season? appeared first on Invezz

The Gap stock price rose sharply earlier this month when the company reported encouraging financial reports. It rose to a high of $25.87 on November 22, its highest level since June 12 of this year. It remains in a local bear market after falling by 20% from its highest level this year.

The Gap stock in the spotlight amid market share gains

GAP shares have been in the spotlight in the past few months as investors watched its ongoing turnaround amid a soft retail environment. 

The most recent results showed that the company was gaining market share across its brands, which include firms like Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, and Athleta.

These results showed that its net sales rose by 2% in the third quarter to $3.8 billion, while its comparable sales were up by 1%. 

The company is also doing well in terms of profitability as its gross margins rose to 42.7%. Most importantly, it is managing its inventory well. The results showed that its inventory dropped by about 2% to $2.33 billion.

Most parts of The Gap’s business did well in the third quarter. Old Navy’s net sales rose by 1% in the third quarter, while Banana Republic rose by 2%. Gap’s sales were up by 1%, while Athleta jumped by 4%.

Athleta is The Gap’s answer to Lululemon Athletica and is one of the fastest-growing brand in the athleisure industry. 

Analysts are generally optimistic about GAP’s business trajectory. The average revenue estimate for the year is about $15 billion, a 0.73% increase from 2023. Its estimated revenue for the coming year is $15.24 billion, up by 1.63% on an annual basis. Gap often does better than expected in most cases.

Most importantly, The Gap’s earnings are expected to continue improving. The annual earnings per share estimate will rise from $1.34 in 2023 to $2.01 this year, followed by $2.09 in the next financial year. 

Most analysts have a neutral view of The Gap, with those at BMO and Evercore having an outperform rating. Wells Fargo has an overweight rating, while Guggenheim has a buy one. UBS is less optimistic with a sell rating on the stock. The average Gap stock forecast is $28, higher than the current $24.25. 

One reason to be optimistic is that The Gap is a fairly cheap company. It has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12, much lower than the sector median is 20. Its trailing P/E multiple is 11.2, lower than the industry median of 19. 

Also, a discounted free cash flow (DCF) model shows that the company was trading at 28% below its current price of $24.

The Gap stock price analysis

GAP chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the GAP share price was trading at $24.25 on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of $30.3. It has remained above the ascending trendline that connects its lowest swings since January this year.

This trendline is notable because it was the neckline of the head and shoulders chart pattern, a popular bearish reversal pattern. 

Therefore, there is a risk that the stock will have a bearish breakout in the next few weeks. If this happens, it may drop to about $20, which is about 20% below the current level. 

$20 is also a notable level since it is along the neckline of the H&S pattern. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $18.6, the 50% retracement level. If this happens, it may drop to $15.9, the 61.8% retracement point, and 35% below the current point. The bearish view will become invalid if the stock rises above the right shoulder level at $26.

The post The Gap stock price could drop 35% as a risky pattern forms appeared first on Invezz

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ: NFLX) maintains a significant first-mover advantage in streaming with more than 280 million subscribers worldwide.

Its diverse content strategy, spanning multiple languages and genres, and aggressive investments in original programming continues to drive international expansion.

Still, Steve Weiss of Short Hills Capital Partners is convinced there’s enough room in streaming for the Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) to grow alongside NFLX in 2025.  

Streaming market will continue to grow at a rapid pace

Growth estimates also suggest substantial room for expansion in the global streaming space.

The streaming market is expected to grow at a compound annualized rate of nearly 18% to hit $2.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2032.

Plus, current penetration rate indicates ample room for growth as well.

There are about 1.8 billion subscriptions to streaming services at writing versus an estimates 5.5 billion people with access to broadband.

So, Disney could particularly tap on the underpenetrated markets like Asia and Africa to drive future growth – while in the more developed economies, it stands to benefit from increasing consumer willingness to subscribe to multiple streaming services as well.

Note that Disney’s streaming business has already turned a profit that further corroborates the “sufficient room” narrative.

In Q4, that segment generated $321 million in operating income against expectations of $387 million “loss”.

The fourth-quarter release contributed to unlocking significant upside in Disney that’s now up a whopping 35% versus its year-to-date low in August.

Disney stock could hit $140 in 2025

Disney could grow alongside Netflix in streaming also because it has a somewhat different content strategy than its rival.

While Netflix focuses on broad-appeal original content and licensed programming, Disney taps on family entertainment and powerhouse franchises like Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar.

This key differentiation will likely remain central in enabling Disney to continue to attract a slightly different audience than Netflix in its pursuit of profitable growth.

Additionally, the company’s bundling strategy with Hulu and ESPN+ provides additional value proposition for consumers that helped it majorly in accumulating more than 150 million global subscribers over the past four years.

And analysts at the Bank of America Securities are convinced the number will continue to go up in the years ahead.

The investment firm reiterated its “buy” rating on Disney stock last week and raised its price target on $140 that indicates potential for about a 13% upside from here.

BofA cited the company’s guidance for its bullish view in its recent note.

Disney expects just under 10% year-on-year increase in its per-share earnings in FY25 – and the management is confident in its ability to push the growth rate well into double digits for the next two years each.

Disney shares currently pay a dividend yield of 0.64% that makes them all the more attractive for those looking for a source of passive income.

The post Is there still space for Disney+ to thrive in Netflix’s world? appeared first on Invezz

Artificial intelligence continues to be the front and centre of all financial debates this year.

The AI frenzy, in fact, has turned Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) into somewhat of a benchmark against which the supremacy of any other stock’s performance is measured.

Still, there’s one stock, not even from the tech sector, that has outperformed NVDA in 2024. Enter Brinker International Inc (NYSE: EAT).

Brinker shares have more than tripled in 2024

Brinker is a multinational chain of restaurants that owns Chili’s and Maggiano’s Little Italy. Its share price is currently up a whopping 210% for the year – versus 181% for Nvidia stock.

“Who needs AI when you have baby back ribs?” analyst Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG wrote in his research note this week.

Brinker stock is on track to mark 2024 as its best year ever. In fact, if this Dallas headquartered firm were a component of the S&P 500, its stock would have been behind only two other names on the list of best year-to-date performers.

And who’s to say EAT wouldn’t top those two (Vistra and Palantir) as well by the end of this year.

Is there any further upside left in Brinker stock?

Brinker stock continues to climb this year on the back of strong financials.

The restaurant chain earned 95 cents a share on $1.14 billion in revenue in its latest reported quarter.

Analysts, in comparison, had called for 69 cents per share and $1.10 billion instead.

At the time, EAT raised its full-year guidance as well to $4.73 billion in revenue – also ahead of Street estimates.

Still, BTIG analyst Jonathan Krinsky says it’s time to take profits and pull out of Brinker stock that’s now about 90% above its 200-day moving average.

“We would look to start fading this strength, and rotating into other restaurants that have more timely setups here,” he told clients in a recent note.

One of the names he recommends owning in place of EAT is Darden Restaurants Inc (NYSE: DRI).

Darden stock could gain 12% from here

BTIG see upside in Darden Restaurants to $195 that indicates potential for about a 12% gain from current levels.  

The investment firm expects DRI to benefit from closure of competing Red Lobster restaurants.

Increased advertising and favourable comparisons will help unlock further upside for this stock as well, it argues.  

Other reasons cited for the bullish view include strategic promotions like the Never Ending Pasta.

All in all, BTIG sees Darden stock as undervalued considering its consistent performance as well as the growth prospects.

Finally, Daren shares are worth owning particularly if you’re interested in a new source of passive income.

They currently pay a healthy dividend yield of 3.20% that makes them well-positioned for a potential economic slowdown as well.

The post This under-the-radar restaurant stock has outperformed Nvidia in 2024 appeared first on Invezz

India’s Competition Commission of India (CCI) has launched an investigation into Google’s policies regarding real-money games on its Play Store platform.

This probe, initiated following a complaint by online gaming platform WinZO, alleges discriminatory practices and adds to Google’s growing regulatory challenges in the country.

WinZO alleges discrimination in Google’s gaming app policy

WinZO, a platform offering real-money games, initially filed its complaint with the CCI in 2022.

The complaint stemmed from a change in Google’s gaming app policy that, while allowing real-money games for fantasy sports and rummy, continued to exclude WinZO from the Play Store.

This exclusion, despite the inclusion of some of WinZO’s competitors, raised concerns about preferential treatment.

WinZO’s rejection was attributed to its offering of games in categories not accepted by Google, such as carrom, puzzles, and car racing.

CCI order highlights potential anti-competitive practices

The CCI order, as reported by Reuters, states: “By granting preferential treatment to select app categories, Google effectively creates a two-tier market where some developers are accorded superior access and visibility while others are discriminated against and thus, left with a competitive disadvantage.”

This statement suggests that Google’s policies may be creating an uneven playing field for game developers.

Google’s regulatory challenges in India

This investigation adds to Google’s existing regulatory woes in India.

The company has already faced at least two penalties for abusing its dominant position in the Android operating system market.

These previous cases underscore the ongoing scrutiny of Google’s business practices in India.

Timeline for the investigation

A CCI official is expected to complete the investigation within 60 days.

The outcome of this probe could have significant implications for Google’s operations in India’s rapidly growing mobile gaming market.

Google has not yet responded or issued a statement in the matter, given the timing of the announcement coinciding with after-work hours in India and the Thanksgiving holiday in the US.

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Asia-Pacific markets largely trended downward on Friday as investors digested a mix of economic data, including Tokyo’s accelerating inflation and a rebound in South Korea’s industrial production.

The region’s benchmarks faced pressure amid uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy, despite pockets of resilience in select markets.

Tokyo’s November inflation figures showed the headline rate rising to 2.6%, a significant uptick from October’s 1.8%.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, came in at 2.2%, slightly above the 2.1% predicted by economists in a Reuters poll.

Tokyo’s inflation data, often seen as a bellwether for nationwide trends, suggests mounting price pressures in Japan, which could bolster the case for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its December meeting.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s industrial production rebounded with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in October, reversing a 1.3% contraction in September.

Despite the positive data, South Korea’s benchmark Kospi fell by 1.74%, while the small-cap-focused Kosdaq dropped 1.75%.

The divergence underscores lingering market concerns over global demand and economic uncertainty.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 slid 0.59%, and the broader Topix fell 0.35% as investors weighed the inflation data. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 mirrored the regional downturn, shedding 0.35%.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index defied the trend with a modest 0.21% gain, buoyed by a recovery in tech stocks.

Mainland China’s CSI 300, however, was slightly down in early trade.

Dollar weakens amid rate cut speculation

The US dollar fell 1.4% against major currencies this week as traders increasingly anticipated a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Futures markets now assign a 63% probability to a quarter-point cut, up from 55% the previous week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The yen appreciated to a five-week high, trading below 150 against the greenback, supported by Tokyo’s inflation surge and heightened speculation of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan.

Oil prices steady, gold Falls

Oil prices steadied on Friday following news of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, but they remained poised for weekly losses.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged up 0.1% to $68.76 per barrel, down 2.5% for the week.

Gold, meanwhile, was down 2.7% this week, trading at $2,638.29 per ounce as the dollar weakened.

India’s economic growth slows

India’s economy is expected to post its slowest quarterly growth since March 2023, with economists forecasting a 6.5% expansion in the second fiscal quarter.

The estimate falls below the Reserve Bank of India’s earlier forecast of 7% and represents a slight slowdown from the 6.7% growth recorded in the first quarter.

Agriculture, which accounts for over 18% of India’s GDP, is projected to perform strongly, supported by sustained consumer spending and improved business confidence, according to the RBI’s October outlook.

Focus on Europe and monetary policy

European bond markets provided some respite, with French bond yields easing after Prime Minister Michel Barnier scrapped plans to raise electricity taxes in the 2025 budget.

Meanwhile, German inflation undershot forecasts, signaling potential downside risk for the eurozone’s inflation reading.

Traders remain focused on the European Central Bank, with expectations leaning toward a gradual rate-cut approach in December.

The mixed signals from Asia, Europe, and the US leave investors closely watching key economic indicators and central bank decisions in the weeks ahead, as markets continue to navigate a complex global environment.

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Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers are facing mounting challenges in Europe with their market share in the region continuing to decline in October for the fourth consecutive month.

According to researcher Dataforce, Chinese brands like SAIC Motor Corp.’s MG and BYD Co. accounted for just 8.2% of European EV registrations last month, down from 8.5% in September.

The drop coincides with the European Union’s implementation of new tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, which began provisionally in July and were finalized on October 30.

These duties, which raise import fees to as high as 45%, have slowed the once-rapid expansion of Chinese brands in this critical overseas market.

Julian Litzinger, an analyst at Dataforce, remarked that Chinese manufacturers seemed to avoid significant shipment volumes in October.

“It will be very interesting to see what happens in November,” he said in a report by Bloomberg, suggesting that manufacturers may adjust their strategies in response to the tariffs.

BYD emerges as a key player despite challenges

Among Chinese brands, BYD has continued to expand its presence in Europe despite these headwinds.

According to Jato Dynamics, BYD outsold MG for the second time in three months, with sales more than doubling year-over-year to 4,630 vehicles in October.

This growth comes as the company ramps up its European operations, including a major sponsorship deal and strategic hires from competitors like Stellantis NV.

Executive Vice President Stella Li has also been instrumental in BYD’s European push, spending significant time in the region to oversee expansion efforts.

However, despite BYD’s progress, MG remains ahead in overall sales for the year, with 63,895 vehicles registered through October—nearly twice BYD’s total.

Yet MG’s October sales tell a different story, with deliveries plummeting 56% to 3,846 vehicles.

Tariffs and trade tensions reshape the automotive industry

The introduction of new EU tariffs has not only affected Chinese EV manufacturers but also disrupted the broader automotive industry.

These duties apply to all Chinese-made EVs, including those imported by Western brands like Volkswagen and BMW.

The increased costs have led to delays in projects, such as Chery Automobile Co.’s plans to begin EV production at a refurbished factory in Barcelona.

With trade tensions growing, the global automotive industry faces heightened uncertainty.

This trend could accelerate with US President-elect Donald Trump’s expected push for additional tariffs.

To mitigate these challenges, some Chinese manufacturers are investing in local factories and supply networks in Europe, a move designed to ease concerns about their impact on domestic industries.

However, the long-term effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen.

European EV market struggles amid declining subsidies

The challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers are part of a broader slowdown in the European EV market.

Major countries like Germany have reduced subsidies that once fuelled demand, contributing to a 1.7% year-to-date decline in battery-electric vehicle registrations.

While October saw a modest 6.9% growth in registrations, the overall market remains subdued.

This slowdown has had ripple effects across the industry.

Volkswagen is reportedly considering factory shutdowns in Germany, while Stellantis has scaled back production of Fiat 500 EVs in Italy, citing weak European sales.

Chinese dominance in EV technology persists

Despite their struggles in Europe, Chinese manufacturers continue to lead in EV technology.

This dominance was underscored by the recent bankruptcy of Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB, once hailed as a potential rival to Chinese battery producers.

Northvolt’s largest shareholder, Volkswagen AG, had viewed the company as a way to counterbalance China’s influence in the battery market.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government has encouraged domestic manufacturers to retain critical EV technologies within the country.

This policy aims to solidify China’s competitive advantage as it navigates growing global trade tensions.

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