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European stock markets exhibited a cautious and mixed start to Wednesday’s trading session, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index hovering near flat territory as investors braced for a significant influx of economic data from across the continent.

Currency markets saw both the British pound and the euro soften against the US dollar, while global attention turned towards upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting minutes and highly anticipated earnings from chip giant Nvidia.

Shortly after the opening bell, the pan-European Stoxx 600 was trading flat, reflecting a general lack of strong directional conviction among investors.

National bourses showed slight variations: London’s FTSE 100 and the French CAC 40 were marginally higher, indicating a touch of resilience.

Germany’s DAX, which had impressively scaled a record high in Tuesday’s session, was trading around 0.1% higher, suggesting it was holding onto its recent strong gains.

This tentative market mood comes as participants anticipate a swathe of economic indicators due for release throughout the day.

Key data points include German import prices, final French gross domestic product (GDP) figures, employment data from both France and Germany, and an update on Turkish economic confidence.

These releases will provide further insights into the health and trajectory of the European economy.

Currency watch: pound and euro dip against dollar

In foreign exchange markets, the British pound was trading 0.2% lower against the US dollar on Wednesday morning.

This movement put sterling on track for its second consecutive day of losses versus the greenback, though it’s important to note that the pound has still appreciated by a significant 7.7% against the dollar year-to-date.

Similarly, the euro was also trading 0.2% lower against the US currency, potentially extending its losses for a second day.

Despite this recent dip, the euro has recorded a gain of more than 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year.

Global focus: Fed minutes and Nvidia’s numbers awaited

Global investors are keenly awaiting the release of minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s May meeting, which are due later on Wednesday.

These minutes will be scrutinized for any fresh clues regarding the central bank’s thinking on inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic outlook.

While no major corporate earnings were expected out of Europe on Wednesday, market participants on both sides of the Atlantic are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings report from US chipmaking behemoth Nvidia.

The company’s results, due after Wall Street’s closing bell, are widely seen as a key barometer for the tech sector and broader market sentiment.

Asia-Pacific recap and US market cues

The trading backdrop from the Asia-Pacific region was mixed on Wednesday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was last seen trading 0.3% higher, while South Korea’s Kospi added a more substantial 1.8%.

However, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.2% after the country reported a higher-than-expected rise in inflation.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was also down 0.4%.

On Wall Street, stock futures were flat ahead of Wednesday’s trading session.

This followed broad gains on Tuesday, as investors reacted positively to US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of 50% tariffs on European Union imports, a development that markets absorbed as they reopened after the Memorial Day holiday.

German import prices show unexpected contraction

Adding to the day’s economic narrative, fresh data from Germany revealed an unexpected development in import prices.

Figures from the Federal Statistical Office showed that German import prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year in April.

This was a surprise, as analysts polled by LSEG data had been anticipating an annual rise of 0.2%.

The previous month, March, had seen import prices in Germany rise by 2.1%, making the April contraction particularly noteworthy.

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The national water regulator Ofwat has imposed a record £122.7 million penalty on Thames Water following two separate investigations into the company’s operations and dividend practices.

The fine, which is the largest ever issued by the regulator, includes £104.5 million for serious failings in the company’s wastewater management and a further £18.2 million for breaching rules around dividend payments.

Ofwat said the penalties were a response to “unacceptable” damage caused to the environment and customers, marking the first time it has fined a company over paying dividends regardless of performance.

Thames Water found guilty of failures in wastewater ops, and improper dividend payouts

The most serious penalty, amounting to £104.5 million, relates to multiple breaches connected to Thames Water’s wastewater operations.

The regulator found the company failed to properly build, maintain, and operate essential infrastructure, which led to repeated pollution incidents and service failures.

In addition, Ofwat imposed an £18.2 million fine for improper dividend payments made in October 2023 and March 2024.

The watchdog ruled that £37.5 million in interim dividends and a further £131.3 million paid to Thames Water Utilities Holdings Limited were in violation of regulatory guidelines.

The regulator highlighted that these payments were made despite the company being in significant financial difficulty, with Ofwat now placing Thames Water in a “cash lock up,” prohibiting further dividends without regulatory approval.

Significance of the penalty

Ofwat’s chief executive, David Black, strongly criticised the company’s conduct. “This is a clear-cut case where Thames Water has let down its customers and failed to protect the environment,” he said.

Our investigation has uncovered a series of failures by the company to build, maintain and operate adequate infrastructure to meet its obligations.

Black added that Thames Water failed to propose any adequate redress package to address the environmental harm caused, leaving Ofwat no option but to impose significant financial penalties.

In response, a spokesperson for Thames Water stated the company “takes its responsibility towards the environment very seriously,” and noted that efforts are already underway to address storm overflow issues highlighted in the investigations.

They also defended the dividend payments, citing a review of the firm’s legal and regulatory obligations.

Environment secretary Steve Reed the government has launched the toughest crackdown on water companies in history.

“Last week we announced a record 81 criminal investigations have been launched into water companies. Today Ofwat announce the largest fine ever handed to a water company in history,” he said.

The era of profiting from failure is over. The Government is cleaning up our rivers, lakes and seas for good.

Mounting debt and risk of nationalisation continue to loom

The fines come as Thames Water struggles to remain solvent amid soaring debt, operational issues, and growing public scrutiny.

The company, which serves 16 million people across London and southern England, narrowly avoided de facto nationalisation earlier this year after securing a £3 billion emergency loan in February.

That deal allowed the company to continue operating for at least another year, giving it time to restructure its nearly £20 billion in debt.

However, the newly announced fines were not included in its financial planning for the next regulatory period, casting fresh doubt on its financial future.

The firm, which employs around 8,000 people and is responsible for supplying water to about a quarter of the UK’s population, had been forecast to run out of funds by March.

The emergency loan staved off immediate collapse, but some lenders opposed its terms, while critics, including Liberal Democrat MP Charlie Maynard, argued the loan was not in the public interest.

Customers are set to face a 31% rise in water bills from April.

Ofwat has clarified that the penalties announced this week will not impact customer bills.

As pressure mounts to clean up its operations and win back public trust, Thames Water must now balance financial survival with an urgent need to fix long-standing infrastructure issues and avoid further environmental damage.

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United States Steel Corp (NYSE: X) has rallied more than 20% in recent sessions on the back of Trump’s approval for its long overdue deal with the Tokyo based Nippon Steel (TYO: 5401).

According to the US President, the said transaction, details of which have eluded the media so far, will see the Japanese steelmaker invest some $14 billion in the US that he believes will help create as many as 70,000 jobs in the country.

However, experts remain wary of that number as the math just doesn’t seem to add up here.

US Steel doesn’t employ half as many employees currently

There are several reasons why Trump’s claim that the US Steel – Nippon agreement will create about 70,000 jobs will prove a miscalculation over time.

For starters, the NYSE listed firm currently has a total of about 20,000 employees only – and that’s including the non US based positions.

Adding 70,000 jobs, as the President claims this deal will over time, would mean a more than five times increase in the company’s current domestic workforce.

This scale of expansion is quite unprecedented and will require a massive increase in the overall production capacity. Note that the steel stock is now up more than 60% year-to-date.

Labour unions are not happy with the US Steel – Nippon deal

Investors are recommended to take the President’s claim of 70,000 new jobs with a pinch of salt as he hasn’t yet offered more colour on how these jobs would be created, whether they’d be direct hires at US Steel or indirect jobs in related industries.

Without a clear breakdown, the number appears speculative only, especially since it’s not backed by Nippon or even the unions.

In fact, the United Steelworkers union has expressed doubts about the deal, noting that the Japan’s behemoth did not consult it before announcing that transaction.

If labour unions are not fully on board, it could lead to resistance or delays in job creation, making it incrementally more challenging for the merged company to hit that 70,000 number.  

Global steelmakers have been turning to automation

Investors should also note that modern steel production relies heavily on automation, reducing the need for large-scale hiring.

So, Nippon may invest $14 billion, part of which will reportedly go to setting up a new steel mill in the US – but even the new facilities may not require as many workers as the White House has recently claimed.

Finally, the regulatory hurdles could limit the scope of US Steel – Nippon transaction in terms of creating new jobs in the United States.

Given these variables, President Trump’s claim of 70,000 new jobs seems highly optimist and very difficult to achieve under current industry conditions.

That may be part of the reason why Nippon stock is slipping following his announcement.

The post Can the US Steel-Nippon deal really deliver 70,000 jobs as Trump claims? appeared first on Invezz

Chasing a Bitcoin rally has historically been a risky move, but “the current environment appears fundamentally different,” says Chris Brendler, a Rosenblatt analyst.

Bitcoin has rallied to record levels in recent sessions on the back of a 90-day trade truce between the US and China. Plus, Moody’s recent downgrade of the US credit rating has driven capital into the digital store of value as well.

Still, Brendler sees BTC prices pushing further to the upside in the back half of 2025.

Why is Rosenblatt bullish on Bitcoin?

Rosenblatt analyst Chris Brendler is convinced that the Trump administration favourable stance on cryptocurrencies is changing the global attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

President Trump has even signalled plans of setting up a strategic BTC reserve, leading to “rising interest from global pools of capital that are starting to seriously consider investing in Bitcoin,” he added in a research note.

However, Brendler argued that institutional ownership of the world’s largest crypto by market cap remains modest only while the “sovereign/corporate interest is just getting started” to forecast a continued increase in demand and, therefore, sustainable momentum in BTC moving forward.

If his Bitcoin price prediction proves true, following are the two stocks that could benefit the most.

Mara Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: MARA)

Chris Brendler expects Mara shares to benefit from a continued increase in Bitcoin price as it tends to trigger a rebound in hashprice.

Mara Holdings is a “pure-play” crypto miner, meaning its core business is generating Bitcoin.

So, a higher price tag on the digital asset translates to better revenues and improved profitability for MARA.

A healthy bottom-line in turn enables the Nasdaq listed firm to reinvest into expanding its mining operations, improving efficiency, and adopting new technologies like immersion cooling, which reduces costs and enhances performance.

Other Wall Street analysts agree with Brendler’s bullish view on Mara stock as well.

The consensus rating on the mining company currently sits at “buy” with the mean target of about $20 indicating potential upside of about 45% from here.

Terawulf Inc (NASDAQ: WULF)

Rosenblatt also sees Terawulf shares rallying on the back of continued upside in BTC in the back half of 2025 for similar reasons as Mara Holdings.

The hybrid miner stands to benefit from a Bitcoin price increase as it often unlocks upside in the entire crypto sector. Investors tend to flock to crypto-related stocks when the digital asset is doing well, driving higher demand and stock price appreciation for the likes of WULF.

Chris Brendler is constructive on the Nasdaq listed firm even though it came in shy of profit and revenue estimates in its latest reported quarter.

That said, Wall Street also currently has a consensus “buy” rating on Terawulf stock with upside to $6.79 on average.  

The post Top 2 US stocks to buy for exposure to Bitcoin’s ongoing rally appeared first on Invezz

The world’s most vulnerable economies are facing a mounting financial crisis, with debt repayments to China reaching record highs in 2025, according to new research by the Lowy Institute.

The Australian thinktank’s report warns that 75 of the poorest nations are collectively due to repay $22 billion to Beijing this year—more than two-thirds of the total $35 billion owed to China globally.

“Now, and for the rest of this decade, China will be more debt collector than banker to the developing world,” the report said.

The report describes the situation as a “tidal wave” of repayments that is likely to strain national budgets already under pressure from slow economic growth, rising inflation, and climate-related costs.

These repayments, many of which stem from infrastructure loans issued under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are now threatening public spending in critical sectors like health and education, the report said.

Belt and Road Initiative legacy under scrutiny

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched under President Xi Jinping, was intended to expand Beijing’s global influence by investing in roads, railways, ports, and energy projects, especially across the Global South.

Between 2013 and 2016, China became the world’s largest bilateral lender, with its annual overseas lending peaking at more than $50 billion.

The initiative helped fund national development projects in countries often excluded from Western financing, but many of these loans are now maturing.

The Lowy report notes that as repayments increase and fresh Chinese lending dwindles, developing nations are left in a tight fiscal bind.

“China’s lending has collapsed exactly when it is needed most, instead creating large net financial outflows when countries are already under intense economic pressure,” the report said.

Is Beijing trapping countries in debt?

Beijing has repeatedly denied using debt for political gain, but the Lowy Institute says the current repayment cycle offers China significant leverage, particularly as Western donors scale back foreign aid.

The report highlights that some nations—including Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Solomon Islands—secured large Chinese loans soon after switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

Other countries continue to receive support due to their geopolitical importance or mineral resources.

These include Pakistan, Laos, Kazakhstan, and mineral-rich states like Argentina, Brazil, and Indonesia.

The scale and pattern of lending, combined with Beijing’s opaque financial practices, have prompted warnings from analysts about the potential for subtle political influence.

Last month another analysis by the Lowy Institute found that Laos was now trapped in a severe debt crisis, in part because of over-investment in the domestic energy sector, mostly financed by China.

Debt burden complicates China’s own challenges

China’s position as a creditor is further complicated by its own economic headwinds.

With domestic growth slowing and its financial sector under stress, Beijing is under pressure to recover funds from overseas while managing its international reputation.

The report suggests this could lead to inconsistent approaches to debt restructuring, leaving debtor nations in uncertainty.

Moreover, the lack of transparency around Chinese lending remains a persistent issue.

The Lowy Institute’s estimates are based on World Bank data but are likely conservative.

AidData’s 2021 report claimed that China’s “hidden debt” could be as high as $385 billion, given the number of off-book and opaque financial agreements made with developing countries.

Risk of a deepening crisis

As the repayment deadlines approach, many countries face difficult trade-offs between servicing debt and funding basic development needs.

Budget cuts in health, education, and climate mitigation risk undoing years of progress.

With limited options for new borrowing, nations may increasingly seek debt relief or restructuring—but that too depends on Beijing’s willingness to engage.

In the absence of coordinated international support, experts warn that the debt pressures building across the developing world could deepen inequality and spark social unrest, with implications that go far beyond fiscal spreadsheets.

The post Poorest nations face $22bn China debt bill in 2025, risking cuts to vital services appeared first on Invezz

European stock markets presented a somewhat mixed but generally positive picture at Tuesday’s open, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index ticking higher.

London’s FTSE 100 notably outperformed, surging as trading resumed after a long Bank Holiday weekend, buoyed by a temporary reprieve in US-EU trade tensions.

However, concerns over rising UK food inflation and cautious German consumer spending tempered broader optimism.

Approximately 15 minutes into the trading day, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was trading 0.2% higher, indicating a modest overall advance.

However, performance across national bourses varied.

The UK’s FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares jumped impressively, up 75 points, or 0.85%, to 8792 points, approaching a two-month high.

This relief rally in London was largely attributed to news that US President Donald Trump had delayed his threatened hike on EU tariffs to 50% until July, temporarily cooling fears of an escalating trade war.

Leading the FTSE 100 risers were engineering group Melrose (+3.8%), followed by technology firm DCC (+2.4%) and aerospace giant Rolls-Royce (+2%).

In contrast, mainland European markets showed more restraint.

France’s CAC 40 declined by 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX held steady, suggesting a more cautious investor stance on the continent.

Economic undercurrents

Despite the cheer in London’s equity market, fresh economic data highlighted ongoing inflationary pressures in the UK.

Food inflation rose by 2.8% year-on-year in May, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

This marked the fourth consecutive month of price increases in this category, up from 2.6% year-on-year growth in April and exceeding the three-month average of 2.6%.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, stated on Tuesday that “fresh food prices were the main driver of the price rises, with wholesale beef prices increasing.”

She argued that increased costs being levied on businesses were having a clear inflationary impact.

“With retailers now absorbing the additional £5bn in costs from April’s increased Employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage, it is no surprise that inflation is rearing its head once again,” Dickinson said.

Meanwhile, in Germany, consumer sentiment showed signs of improvement in May, as per the GfK Consumer Climate report released on Tuesday.

This marked the third consecutive month of an upward trend for the index, partly driven by slowing inflation and “good wage settlements.”

However, despite this improvement, overall sentiment remained low, and analysts noted that consumers were hesitant to make discretionary purchases.

This reluctance was attributed to the ongoing threat of US tariff policies.

“The unpredictable customs and trade policy of the US government, turbulence on the stock markets and fears of a third consecutive year of stagnation are reasons why the consumer climate remains weak,” commented Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at the NIM, in a statement on Tuesday.

In view of the general economic situation, people seem to think it advisable to save.

The GfK Consumer Climate report, which surveyed around 2,000 German consumers between May 1 and May 12, was jointly published by NIQ and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions.

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Samsung is actively pursuing strategic moves on multiple fronts to bolster its technological prowess and market reach, with its investment arm reportedly in talks to back US health-care innovator Exo Imaging Inc., even as Samsung Electronics finalizes a major acquisition in the HVAC sector.

Samsung Electronics Co.’s investment division, Samsung Ventures Investment Corp., is reportedly among a consortium of firms looking to invest in Exo Imaging Inc., a US-based company specializing in health-care software and devices.

According to people familiar with the matter who spoke to Bloomberg, Samsung Ventures may participate in a private fundraising round for Exo.

This round is said to be led by Sands Capital, Bold Capital, and Qubit Health Capital.

The sources, who requested anonymity due to the private nature of the information, indicated that Santa Clara, California-based Exo could secure approximately $100 million in total funding from this round.

In a significant development tied to this potential investment, Qubit Health Chairman Omar Ishrak is also reportedly set to join Exo’s board.

Ishrak brings a wealth of experience to the role, having previously served as chief executive officer at Medtronic Plc and headed General Electric Co.’s health-care business.

Furthermore, Exo is said to be in discussions for a potential partnership with Samsung Medison Co., a Samsung subsidiary renowned for its ultrasound diagnostic devices and its sales of digital X-ray systems and scanners.

These discussions, along with the investment details, are reportedly ongoing, and the specifics could change, the people familiar with the matter cautioned.

When approached for comment, Samsung declined, while Exo, Sands Capital, Bold Capital, and Qubit Health Capital did not respond to requests. Ishrak also did not immediately respond.

Samsung Electronics acquires FläktGroup for €1.5 billion

In a separate but significant strategic maneuver, Samsung Electronics announced on May 14 its agreement to acquire all shares of FläktGroup, a leading global provider of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) solutions, from European investment firm Triton for €1.5 billion.

This acquisition underscores Samsung’s commitment to expanding and fortifying its presence in the rapidly growing global applied HVAC market.

“Through the acquisition of FläktGroup, an applied HVAC specialist, Samsung Electronics has laid the foundation to become a leader in the global HVAC business, offering a full range of solutions to our customers,” stated TM Roh, Acting Head of the Device eXperience (DX) Division at Samsung Electronics.

Our commitment is to continue investing in and developing the high-growth HVAC business as a key future growth engine.

FläktGroup, headquartered in Herne, Germany, boasts over a century of technological expertise and design capabilities.

The company offers a diverse range of products and solutions tailored to various customer needs, supplying high-reliability and high-efficiency HVAC systems to a wide array of buildings and facilities.

These include critical environments such as data centers requiring stable cooling, museums and libraries managing sensitive historical artifacts, high-traffic airports and terminals, and large hospitals where hygiene, temperature, and humidity control are paramount.

FläktGroup’s strength in data centers and specialized industries

FläktGroup has established a strong reputation in the global large-scale data center market, achieving high customer satisfaction through its product performance, reliability, and service support.

This has translated into substantial revenue growth for the company over the past three years.

FläktGroup’s data center solutions feature industry-leading liquid cooling and air cooling products, which have enabled customers to reduce energy consumption and contribute to achieving lower carbon footprint goals.

Last year, FläktGroup’s innovative technologies were recognized with the DCS Cooling Innovation of the Year Award at the DCS Cooling Awards.

Trevor Young, CEO of FläktGroup, expressed enthusiasm about the acquisition:

We are extremely pleased that FläktGroup has become a part of Samsung Electronics. FläktGroup, as a global top-tier HVAC specialist with over a century of expertise, has been relied on by global large clients for its technological and product innovations. Now, with Samsung Electronics’ global business foundation and investment, we expect to further accelerate our growth.

Beyond data centers, FläktGroup has cultivated a diverse portfolio of over 60 large customers, including leading pharmaceutical companies, biotech and food and beverage firms, and gigafactories, showcasing its broad market applicability and established client base.

The post Samsung to invest in US health-care software and device company Exo? What we know appeared first on Invezz

The US dollar continues its decline and it’s now at its lowest level since 2023. 

Most headlines call it a warning sign. Another casualty of trade wars, deficits, and political chaos. But what if that’s only part of the story?

What if the weak dollar isn’t a mistake, but a part of the plan? What if this is less about missteps and more about strategy? An intentional revamp in how America wants to play the global game?

Because when you look at the policies, the timing, and the ripple effects, you start to see something different. Something more intentional.

Why is the dollar falling now?

The US dollar has fallen more than 8% since January, according to Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index.

It dropped another 0.8% on Friday, shortly after President Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on all European Union imports and 25% on Apple products

This triggered a sell-off in the currency markets, with traders shifting into the New Zealand and Australian dollars, both of which rose over 1%.

Normally, the dollar tends to strengthen during global uncertainty. It acts as a safe haven. This time, the opposite is happening. 

Investors are moving out of dollar assets, not because they see safety elsewhere, but because they’re starting to doubt whether the dollar still deserves that status.

Since the start of the year, most major currencies have strengthened against the dollar.

Source: Bloomberg

This change is also visible in futures markets. According to reports, short positions betting against the dollar have climbed to $16.5 billion. That figure has been rising steadily for weeks.

Is this just about tariffs?

Tariffs are part of the story, but they’re really just a spark. The bigger issue is the direction of US policy.

One day after House Republicans passed a new round of tax cuts, Trump unveiled his latest tariff threats. 

The two moves are pulling in opposite directions. Tax cuts increase the deficit. Tariffs raise prices.

Together, they create the kind of uncertainty that markets don’t like.

The proposed tax package could add $700 billion to the federal deficit every year, according to projections reviewed by Congress.

Over a decade, that would mean an additional $3.7 trillion in debt. 

The tax cuts also offer limited upside. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates they would raise long-term GDP by just 0.03% points.

That’s the crux of the problem. The economic payoff is small. The cost is large.

And the political volatility surrounding the policies makes them hard to price.

Investors are beginning to factor all of that in, and they’re not liking what they see.

What are the markets telling us?

The bond market is where the warning signs are flashing the brightest. Demand for long-term Treasury debt is weakening.

A recent 20-year bond auction struggled to attract buyers. Yields have risen as investors demand more compensation for holding US debt.

Moody’s downgraded the US credit outlook last week, citing structural deficits and the likelihood of increased borrowing.

Their concern wasn’t just the size of the deficit. It was the lack of a plan to fix it.

At the same time, US equities slipped again. The S&P 500 fell nearly 1% on Friday.

Companies like Walmart are warning they may need to raise prices to offset new tariffs. 

This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. If inflation picks up due to higher import costs, but growth slows because of policy uncertainty, the central bank may find itself stuck, unable to cut rates, but also hesitant to raise them.

When firms don’t know what policy will look like in a week, they stop making long-term decisions.

Could this be intentional?

Some economists have begun to wonder whether the dollar’s decline is not just a policy failure, but part of the plan.

Trump’s aggressive fiscal and trade moves might seem reckless on the surface, but they could serve hidden objectives.

One theory suggests that inflation is seen as a tool for debt relief. 

With federal debt now getting close to $37 trillion and projected to grow rapidly under Trump’s new tax plan, traditional deficit reduction, normally through spending cuts or tax hikes, looks politically impossible. But inflation quietly reduces the real value of that debt.

Deutsche Bank recently estimated that a 40% drop in the dollar, while extreme, could mathematically erase the US federal deficit over time.

A cheaper dollar makes debt cheaper in real terms, especially if wages and nominal GDP rise alongside inflation. 

Trump’s apparent willingness to tolerate a weaker currency, along with his past threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping rates too high, suggests he may prefer inflation to austerity.

That may also explain the policy contradictions: cut taxes, raise tariffs, dismiss inflation concerns, and pressure the Fed not to raise rates.

It’s not a growth plan. It’s soft default by design, without ever having to say it out loud.

Another, more radical possibility is that the US is moving away from dollar dominance on purpose.

Trump and some in his circle have framed reserve currency status not as a privilege, but as a burden. 

It forces the US to run persistent trade deficits, backstop global liquidity, and act as the lender of last resort for other nations.

Trump doesn’t want America to carry the world. He wants the US to win bilateral deals, control its supply chains, and stop subsidizing the global order.

In that context, letting the dollar fall, disrupting global alliances, and alienating multilateral institutions may not be side effects; they may be the point.

It could be the beginning of a shift toward a multipolar world where the dollar still matters, but doesn’t dominate. 

That would lower America’s global exposure, reduce foreign reliance, and make domestic policy more flexible.

This is speculative, but increasingly plausible, especially when viewed alongside recent events.

Germany is rearming. The EU is threatening retaliation. BRICS nations are openly exploring alternatives to the dollar. 

And US allies, from Japan to France, are bracing for a world in which the dollar is no longer the anchor.

Whether planned or not, Trump’s economic agenda is forcing that conversation faster than anyone expected.

The post What if a weak US dollar was the plan all along? appeared first on Invezz

The financial space looks to finalize May with notable volatility.

Bitcoin is trading at $109,000 after tariff threats from the US curtailed its recent surge to fresh all-time highs.

This article highlights key events that could influence crypto market movements this week.

Monday: top developments during Memorial Day

Cryptocurrencies displayed gains on Monday as the US stock market remained closed due to Memorial Day.

Meanwhile, the digital assets space braces for notable moves in 24 hours.

Firstly, Binance Launchpool will list a real-world token, HUMA, reflecting the exchange’s commitment to supporting the growing RWA tokenization industry.

Binance is the first platform to feature Huma Finance (HUMA), with trading opens on Binance Alpha at 11:00 UTC on May 26, 2025.

Eligible Binance users with at least 200 Binance Alpha points can claim an airdrop of 1,250 HUMA tokens on the Alpha Events page starting at 11:00 UTC

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Most importantly, the United States Senate will vote on the closely-watched GENIUS stablecoin bill, which promises to transform stablecoin regulation in the US.

The voting outcome will likely shake the markets, especially for dollar-tied assets like USD Coin and USDT.

Tuesday: BTC conference featuring the US vice president

The annual Bitcoin Conference will run from Tuesday to Thursday in Las Vegas.

The event will feature top figures in the crypto space, including CEOs and policymakers.

Notably, United States Vice President JD Vance, Ross Ulbricht, and Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor are among the high-profile speakers.

The VP’s presence underscores the increasing connection between US politics and cryptocurrency- a trend that Donald Trump began during the campaigns.

Possible discussions around Bitcoin policy, mining, and altcoin ETFs could influence sentiments.

Wednesday: LayerZero’s token debut, FOMC minutes release

Wednesday seems to be the most loaded day of the week.

First and foremost, LayerZero’s new signature validation feature, OneSig, will go live alongside the much-awaited ZRO token.

The airdrop has trended in the DeFi sector over the past few months, and its official debut could witness significant momentum or volatility.

LayerZero is a multichain interoperability protocol that supports any smart contract-compatible blockchain, including Ethereum, Avalanche, Optimism, and Arbitrum.  

Also, MultiversX will release its Andromeda upgrade on Wednesday to enhance scalability and user perks for EGLD investors.

Traders will watch for hints on upcoming rate decisions during the Fed FOMC meeting minutes on May 28, 6 PM (UTC).

Moreover, Nvidia’s post-market earnings report could influence AI tokens’ price actions.

Thursday: US GDP data report

Revised GDP data for the first quarter will reveal the current state of the US economy.

Analysts forecast a -0.3% contraction, which will likely pressure the Federal to ease its hawkish outlook sooner.

Such developments will likely impact risk assets as they influence investor appetite.

Friday: FTX payouts and US Core PCE

The defunct exchange will start its second phase of creditor repayments on May 30, returning billions of dollars to affected investors.

The disbursement might bolster market liquidity, depending on the recipients’ reactions.

They may hold, reinvest, or sell the returned assets.

On the macro front, the United States will release the Core PCE Index, which the Fed uses to gauge inflation.

Cooling inflation will likely trigger bullish sentiments across the cryptocurrency space.

The post Key events this week: JD Vance at Bitcoin Vegas, $ZRO’s launch, FTX payouts appeared first on Invezz

The next setback in oil prices is looming as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies meet later this week to discuss output levels for July. 

The eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, with voluntary production cuts will vote on their future production strategy on June 1.

Delegates suggest a continuation of substantial daily oil production increases, potentially reaching 410,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, according to Commerzbank AG.

The eight members of the cartel had previously agreed to raise oil production by over 400,000 barrels per day for both May and June. 

This had weighed heavily on sentiments in the oil market, with prices slipping below the $60 per barrel at the beginning of May. 

Even though prices hover around $60 a barrel, which is far from the desired levels of OPEC+ countries, analysts and experts believe there would be no relief in terms of supply in the coming months. 

Source: Commerzbank Research

“The fact that Kazakhstan has apparently still not cut back its production (Fig. 1 or see below) speaks in favour of this,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report. 

Individual countries’ failure to meet production targets in the past two months likely led Saudi Arabia to cease its role as the primary supporter of price stability.

Lambrecht said:

This would threaten an even greater supply surplus on the oil market. This is because there are no signs of a revival on the demand side.

Oil demand

China’s crude oil processing remained weak in April, suggesting continued sluggish demand in this key market.

The country is the world’s largest importer of the fuel

“From next week, the focus will increasingly turn to the country with the highest oil consumption, the US, where the so-called ‘summer driving season’ begins with the Memorial weekend,” Lambrecht said. 

The US Energy Information Administration’s latest outlook anticipated that gasoline prices will be 9% lower in the second and third quarters compared to the previous year, which is expected to have a stimulating effect due to these lower prices.

Despite this, the EIA forecasts that gasoline consumption will average approximately 9.1 million barrels daily during the peak demand period, similar to the previous year’s level.

“This means that the oil price will not be boosted from this side either,” Lambrecht said. 

Reduced drilling activity

The sustained low oil prices have led to a decrease in drilling operations within the United States.

The number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 8 last week, according to Baker Hughes data, reaching 465. 

This marks the fourth straight week of decline, bringing the rig count to its lowest level since November 2021.

“The slowdown in activity is no surprise, considering West Texas Intermediate (WTI ) forward prices are averaging a little over $60/bbl for the remainder of this year,” analysts at ING Group, said. 

The industry needs, on average, $65 per barrel to drill a new well profitably, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve’s quarterly energy survey.

Geopolitical concerns

“However, the oil market is unlikely to enter calm waters, as geopolitical developments are likely to continue to cause volatility,” Commerzbank’s Lambrecht said. 

According to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday, Iran can endure even if nuclear negotiations with the US do not result in an agreement.

The negotiations regarding a nuclear deal between Iran and the US are due to continue.

A potential agreement could raise hopes for easing sanctions against Iran, potentially increasing pressure on oil prices.

Meanwhile, according to analysts at ING, the eight countries in the OPEC+ alliance are likely to go ahead with another increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. 

The analysts at ING added: 

This should keep the market well supplied over the second half of this year.

At the time of writing, the WTI crude oil price was at $61.17 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous close.

The Brent oil price was down 0.5% at $63.80 a barrel. 

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