The past few years have demonstrated how quickly events can evolve. While some remain unpredictable, others can be anticipated.

Ipsos recently conducted a survey involving over 23,700 participants from 33 countries, covering several topics such as technology, the environment, and global security.

The Statista report analyses the solid economic data and sentiments gathered in the Ipsos survey, shedding light on future expectations from various regions.

For example, the survey highlights that at least 79 percent of the respondents believe that prices will increase faster than incomes.

This data also shows a growing concern over inflationary pressures in several countries, particularly in volatile and diverse economies in regions such as Latin America.

Climate change’s economic ramifications raise concerns

According to the Statista report, the survey findings indicate a strong consensus among respondents about climate change, with 80 percent expecting further global warming in the year ahead.

This concern is particularly pronounced in Southeast Asia, where Indonesia (91 percent), the Philippines (89 percent), and Malaysia (88 percent) express the highest levels of anxiety.

These data highlight an urgent need for governments to tackle environmental challenges, especially since climate change can undermine economic stability, risking declines in agricultural productivity and increasing expenses for disaster preparedness.

Interestingly, while an important number of people anticipate rising temperatures and more severe weather events—72 percent of those surveyed noted the likelihood of experiencing climate-related incidents—there is skepticism about government responsiveness.

Only 52 percent expected their governments to set stricter carbon emissions targets, revealing a gap between public concern and political action.

However, optimism is present in China, where 84 percent believe their government is taking proactive measures.

This contrast serves as an important economic indicator: the potential effects of environmental policies on economic success.

Nations that do not adapt may endure long-term economic challenges, intensified by climate-related disasters, which could disrupt global supply chains.

Geopolitical conflicts and its economic toll

Ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a critical concern among people, with many respondents conveying pessimism regarding the resolution of existing conflicts.

Only 20 percent of individuals in the Middle East see an end to violence by 2025, while about 30 percent feel similarly about the situation in Ukraine.

This drop in optimistic projections compared to the previous year suggests diminishing hope, reinforcing the idea that extended conflicts could negatively impact both local and global economies.

The economic ramifications of war—such as the displacement of populations, damage to infrastructure, and trade disruptions—are significant concerns.

Areas caught in conflict often see a decline in foreign investment, rising unemployment rates, and stagnant GDP growth.

Gauging public sentiment on conflict resolution is crucial for forecasting future economic developments, particularly in regions that depend heavily on stability for trade and investment.

The transformative role of AI in the job market

As we embrace the digital economy, the emergence of artificial intelligence brings both challenges and opportunities.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed (around 66 percent) expect AI to result in job losses by 2025.

Nevertheless, a considerable portion—43 percent—also views AI as a potential source of new job opportunities.

This dual perspective underscores a transformative change in labor dynamics, predicting possible disruptions in the job market alongside fresh avenues for economic growth.

Increased reliance on AI could enhance productivity and economic efficiency, but it may also provoke social unrest as workers adjust to swift technological advancements.

One vital economic indicator for the upcoming year will be investment in reskilling initiatives and technology infrastructure to support a workforce increasingly impacted by automation.

Growth in virtual economies

The survey also demonstrated a rising acceptance of virtual environments, with 59 percent of respondents believing that many individuals will choose to live in these digital spaces by next year.

This trend carries significant implications for numerous sectors, including entertainment, education, and commerce, as virtual platforms create new markets and opportunities for economic development.

The move toward greater digital engagement raises concerns about cybersecurity and data privacy—issues that could impede the growth of the digital economy if not effectively managed.

Companies will need to devote resources to technologies that secure these environments while fostering innovation to attract users to virtual spaces.

Projections indicate that the virtual economy could experience substantial growth, contributing to overall economic advancement.

Strategic insights for achieving economic stability

Although the most common concerns among the population are about environmental change, the economy, and war, the possibility of a pandemic caused by a new virus has a 49 percent concern.

The Ipsos survey offers a clear glimpse into global economic expectations for the coming year.

From addressing climate change and geopolitical instability to embracing technological advances and the expansion of virtual economies, the insights gathered present both challenges and chances for growth.

Looking ahead, policymakers, businesses, and communities need to work together to navigate these evolving circumstances, placing priority on economic resilience and sustainability in their collective approach.

By understanding and responding to these data-driven insights, we can build a stronger economic foundation that ultimately benefits societies around the globe.

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The commodity markets in 2024 experienced wild swings from gold prices touching record highs to cocoa emerging as the best performer in the complex. 

The year saw growing conflicts in the Middle East region, while the Russia-Ukraine continued to rage on, affecting the oil and grains markets. 

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve also cut interest rates for the first time in four and a half years in September. 

Oil demand remained subdued as China’s economy continued to struggle. 

As the markets set to draw curtains on 2024, below are the top trends from the commodity markets this year:

Cocoa outperforms Bitcoin

In 2024, the cocoa futures market experienced dramatic volatility and record price movements. 

At the time of writing, the US cocoa prices were more than 170% higher since the start of the year.

This rise has outperformed Bitcoin’s nearly 130% gain this year so far. 

Early in the year, cocoa prices began to surge, driven by concerns over tight global supplies due to drought and disease in West African producers. 

By March, cocoa futures in New York hit unprecedented levels, exceeding $8,000 per ton, doubling from the previous year.

This surge was attributed to a significant supply deficit, with cocoa production falling short of consumption by about 500,000 tonnes, the largest in over 65 years. 

Last week, US cocoa futures surged above $12,000 per ton for the first time. 

Analysts with ING Group said in a note:

Recent weather reports suggest that current dry conditions in West Africa are posing threats to cocoa trees and are expected to hamper output in February and March next year. 

OPEC+ production cuts

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies continued to influence the oil market with output cuts throughout 2024. 

The cartel was set to increase production in July, unwinding some of the voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. 

However, subdued demand for oil from China and falling prices meant OPEC had to extend these cuts multiple times.

At its latest meeting earlier this month, the cartel had agreed to extend the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary output cut till the end of March 2025. 

On top of this, OPEC has been sitting on a 3.65-million-barrels-per-day of cuts since the last one and a half years. 

At its meeting earlier this month, OPEC agreed to extend these overall cuts by a year till the end of 2026. 

Therefore, OPEC’s total output cuts currently amount to 5.85 million barrels per day, which is nearly 6% of the global oil supply.   

As the group maintains such steep production cuts to prop up prices, crude oil has remained rangebound through most of 2024. 

Middle East tensions boil over

In October, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel retaliating against the alleged assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, which raised concerns about oil supply from the region. 

Subsequently, oil prices spiked more than 8% after the attack. 

Israel retaliated later in October, targeting military facilities in Iran, escalating tensions between the two sides. 

Simultaneously, the conflict in Gaza intensified with Israel’s military operations, leading to airstrikes that caused significant civilian casualties, with reports of attacks on schools and hospitals.

October also marked the first anniversary of the beginning of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. 

Russia-Ukraine war

Russia and Ukraine continued their conflict in 2024 with no end in sight. 

Throughout the year, Russian forces focused on slow, incremental advances, particularly in the Donbas region, where they captured strategic locations like Avdiivka after months of brutal fighting. 

The conflict saw a shift with Ukraine’s limited use of US-provided weapons for strikes inside Russia, particularly around Kharkiv, under new guidelines from the Biden administration.

This tactical change aimed at defending critical regions but also risked escalation. 

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that the use of Western weapons by Ukraine had lowered the bar for a nuclear war. 

Russia and Ukraine are both key exporters of grains such as wheat and corn.

The conflict disrupted supply chains, leading to a spike in grain prices. 

Throughout the year, wheat prices saw both highs and lows due to the war and weather concerns.

There was a notable surge in May due to weather concerns in key producing regions like Russia, which faced drought and frost issues, prompting downward revisions in production estimates. 

This led to wheat futures rallying, with prices in some markets reaching above $6.87 per bushel.

El Nino leads to droughts

The El Nino weather pattern in 2024 led to droughts in some regions and excess rainfall in others, disrupting agricultural cycles. 

In Latin America, particularly in countries like Brazil and Argentina, El Nino’s association with reduced rainfall during critical growing seasons contributed to lower yields for crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. 

Southeast Asia also experienced below-normal rainfall, affecting rice production in major countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, where water shortages and drought conditions forced farmers to replant or abandon crops.

Trump wins US election

In November, Republican Donald Trump won the 2024 US elections against Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Trump’s win led to a surge in the dollar and yields on Treasury bonds. US benchmark equities rallied to record highs in November. 

The Trump-led rally in the dollar and riskier assets weighed on several commodities, particularly gold and silver. 

A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for overseas buyers. 

Gold prices fell from a record high of $2,800 per ounce touched in late October. Silver prices also fell from a high of $35 an ounce. 

Trump’s victory also clouded the outlook for future interest rate cuts by the US Fed. The President-elect’s expansionary reforms for the US economy and proposed tax cuts are seen accelerating inflation in the country. 

Higher inflation is expected to keep the Fed from cutting interest rates further, which is likely to limit the appeal of gold and silver. 

Gold hits a series of record highs

The year 2024 has been one of the best for gold in recent years.

The yellow metal had climbed more than 30% at one point from the start of the year. 

Even though prices have fallen in the last month or so after Trump’s victory, gold is still more than 20% higher since the start of the year. 

Gold prices first breached $2,500 per ounce earlier this year for the first time. 

Safe-haven demand spiked after Middle East tensions escalated, and as a result, the yellow metal breached $2,600 per ounce in September. 

In October, prices touched a record high of $2,700 an ounce, followed by another lifetime high of $2,800 per ounce. 

Gold has been one of the best-performing commodities this year. Meanwhile, silver prices have outperformed gold this year with a rise of 26% so far this year. 

The increasing industrial demand for silver has helped prices to surge.

Though the metal has not hit record highs like gold, analysts believe that silver has more upside potential compared to the yellow metal in the upcoming years. 

Fed cuts interest rates by 75 bps in 2024

At the beginning of the year, there was a lot of market chatter surrounding the US Fed’s monetary policy easing. 

The Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024 over the course of three meetings. 

In September, the US central bank delivered a surprising 50 bps cut. It was also the first time in more than four years that the Fed had cut rates. 

In the subsequent meetings in November and December, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps in each of the meetings.

The market at the start of the year was projecting a total rate cut of 150 bps. 

Nevertheless, the interest rate cuts supported sentiments in the commodity markets.

Lower interest rates increase liquidity in the economy and the borrowing costs decline. 

For 2025, the Fed said it will be cautious with the rate-cutting cycle as inflation in the US remained sticky.

The market expects the central bank to cut rates by 50 bps next year compared with previous estimates of a 100 bps cut. 

The slowdown in the rate cuts could weigh on gold and silver in 2025. 

Trump’s tariffs loom large

With President-elect Trump set to take office at the White House next year, expectations of a trade war between the US and China loom large. 

Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports.

On top of this, he is also expected to impose a 10%-20% tariff on goods imported from other countries. 

Trump has already promised sweeping tariffs to bolster the US economy, protect American industries, promote manufacturing, and reduce reliance on foreign shipments. 

A trade war with China could affect the global prices of soybeans and corn. China could also impose tariffs of its own on US agricultural imports. 

Additionally, he also intends to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico.

This will also include oil and petroleum products imported from these countries into the US. 

Canada and Mexico are two key oil suppliers to the US.

A 25% tariff could make it difficult for oil refineries in the US to source crude oil and petroleum products, leading to higher domestic fuel prices. 

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Like Bob Dylan’s prophetic The Times They Are A-Changin’, the global political landscape faces a seismic shift as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January 2025, triggering an unprecedented wave of diplomatic repositioning worldwide.

Originally released in 1964, Dylan’s song emerged during a period of social upheaval, civil rights struggles, and anti-establishment movements – a time when the old guard clashed with new visions for the future.

Today, the echoes of Dylan’s lyrics resonate as political realignments, economic uncertainty, and shifting global alliances define the modern era.

Just as Dylan urged senators and congressmen to “please heed the call,” today’s leaders are confronted with rising populism, geopolitical tension, and public demand for systemic change.

Trump in the Oval Office, the beating heart of the free world, contests every element of the liberal international order – trade, alliances, migration, multilateralism, democratic solidarity and human rights.

Nations are recalibrating their policies to align with or counterbalance US strategies, reflecting Dylan’s timeless assertion that “the wheel’s still in spin.”

Even Trump himself has acknowledged the unprecedented nature of these developments, recently admitting in Paris that “the world seems to be going a little crazy now.”

European allies plan 40,000-strong peacekeeping force amid uncertainty

In what may prove to be the most significant restructuring of European security since NATO’s formation, European powers are quietly developing plans for a 40,000-strong peacekeeping force in Ukraine.

This initiative, spearheaded by Poland, Germany, and France, represents the first serious attempt to create a European security framework independent of US leadership.

The plan, drawing inspiration from the post-war division of Korea, envisions stationing troops along a future demarcation line in Ukraine.

Key architects include Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, probable future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who have been meeting privately to coordinate this unprecedented security initiative.

Mark Rutte, NATO’s new chief, captured the pragmatic approach European leaders are adopting when he stated,

We have to dance with whoever is on the dancefloor.

This sentiment reflects the delicate balance European leaders must strike between maintaining trans-Atlantic ties and developing independent security capabilities.

Military aid gap reveals 45% dependence on non-EU equipment

The European Union’s military preparedness has come under intense scrutiny, with outgoing EU foreign service head Josep Borrell revealing troubling statistics about the bloc’s defense capabilities.

According to Borrell, 45% of military equipment provided to Ukraine by EU nations originated from outside the bloc, highlighting a critical dependency on external suppliers.

“I have been begging for arms,” Borrell stated in a candid assessment of the situation.

He pointed out that while Russia maintains a firing rate of 800,000 rounds monthly, the EU’s bureaucratic processes are so cumbersome that it took three months just to request one million rounds of ammunition.

This disparity has raised serious questions about Europe’s ability to support Ukraine independently of US assistance.

Middle Eastern realignment sees Saudi Arabia pursue a 60% increase in Chinese trade

The Middle East is witnessing a dramatic realignment of traditional alliances, with Saudi Arabia leading a strategic pivot away from exclusive reliance on US security guarantees.

The kingdom has significantly increased its engagement with China, targeting a 60% increase in bilateral trade, while simultaneously pursuing normalization with Iran.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s description of Israeli actions in Gaza as “genocide” marks a significant departure from the kingdom’s recent warming of relations with Israel.

Saudi diplomats have explicitly stated that normalization with Israel is “off the table without a clear pathway to a Palestinian state,” effectively pausing the expansion of the Abraham Accords.

Israel signals major policy shift with West Bank annexation plans

The implications of Trump’s victory have reverberated strongly in Israel, where cabinet member Bezalel Smotrich made the stunning announcement that “2025 will be the year of Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.”

This declaration, coming within a week of the US election results, signals potential plans for West Bank annexation that were previously considered diplomatically impossible.

The timing of this announcement is particularly significant as it coincides with Netanyahu’s claims of having held three post-election conversations with Trump, during which he says they “see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its components.”

This alignment of Israeli and American leadership positions has created deep concern among Gulf states and threatens to further complicate regional diplomatic efforts.

China positions for leadership amid 50% proposed US tariff threat

Beijing has launched a sophisticated diplomatic campaign to position itself as a stabilizing force in contrast to perceived US unpredictability under Trump.

Despite facing the threat of 50% tariffs, China is actively promoting itself as a reliable partner committed to free trade and green energy, particularly in Europe and the Global South.

The situation has become more complex with Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS countries if they attempt to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

This aggressive stance has paradoxically strengthened China’s ability to present itself as a more predictable economic partner, particularly among developing nations seeking alternatives to US-dominated financial systems.

European nations face strategic choices as Ukraine support wavers

European leaders are grappling with unprecedented decisions regarding Ukraine’s future, faced with the prospect of diminishing US support.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent proposal for a ceasefire plan represents a significant shift in strategy, focusing on diplomatic rather than military means to regain territory lost since 2014.

The proposal, coupled with a request for immediate NATO membership for remaining Ukrainian territory, reflects the growing uncertainty about continued US backing.

However, NATO leadership, including Rutte, has rejected this proposal, arguing that neither Russia nor the US would accept Ukrainian NATO membership under current circumstances.

This rejection highlights the complex calculations European leaders must make as they balance their support for Ukraine against their own security interests and relationship with the United States.

Defense industry constraints show 65% capacity shortfall

The European defense industrial base has revealed critical weaknesses, with Borrell’s analysis showing a 65% capacity shortfall in meeting current military requirements.

This industrial limitation has severely hampered the EU’s ability to support Ukraine militarily and raised serious questions about Europe’s capability to act independently of US support.

The situation is further complicated by bureaucratic delays and coordination challenges among EU member states.

Industry experts estimate it could take 3-5 years to achieve the necessary production capacity, even with significant investment and political will.

Trump signals potential Iran negotiations amid regional tensions

Despite his tough campaign rhetoric, Trump has indicated a surprising openness to negotiations with Iran, revealing that he had been prepared to make a deal “within one week after the election” had he won in 2020.

This suggestion of a more nuanced approach to Middle Eastern politics has created both uncertainty and opportunity in regional diplomatic circles.

The possibility of US-Iran negotiations has particular significance given the broader regional realignment occurring in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s normalization of relations with Iran and the increasing influence of China in the region create a complex diplomatic environment that could either facilitate or complicate potential US-Iran talks.

Global implications and future scenarios

The international community’s response to Trump’s return appears to be creating new patterns of alliance and cooperation that could outlast his presidency.

European nations are particularly focused on developing independent security capabilities, while Middle Eastern powers pursue multi-directional diplomacy to hedge against uncertainty in US policy.

These shifts suggest a potentially permanent change in global power dynamics, with traditional US allies seeking greater autonomy and alternative partnership frameworks.

The success of these initiatives will largely depend on their implementation during Trump’s presidency and their ability to create sustainable alternative security and economic arrangements.

LSE Professor Fawaz Gerges provides a comprehensive assessment of the situation:

“Saudi Arabia, one of the most important Middle Eastern powers dependent on the US, is positioning itself for the Trump administration by diversifying its foreign policy, deepening its relations with China and normalizing with Iran.”

Early days of Trump’s return will be crucial

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether these preparatory moves develop into lasting changes in the international order.

European defense initiatives, Middle Eastern diplomatic realignments, and China’s positioning as a stable alternative partner will all face practical tests as Trump’s presidency begins.

The success or failure of these various initiatives could determine whether Trump’s presidency marks a temporary disruption to the post-World War II international order or a permanent shift toward a new global power structure.

The stakes are particularly high for traditional US allies, who must balance their historical relationships with America against the need to develop independent capabilities and alternative partnerships.

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