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South Korea’s parliament has impeached acting President Han Duck-soo, deepening the nation’s political uncertainty as suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol faces trial over his controversial imposition of martial law.

The impeachment motion passed on Friday with 192 out of 300 votes, triggering a leadership shake-up and leaving Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok to assume the acting presidency.

The dramatic vote comes in the wake of public outcry and political strife sparked by Yoon’s December 3 declaration of martial law, which led to his own impeachment on December 14.

Opposition parties, led by the Democratic Party, accused Han of failing to act in the nation’s best interests and obstructing the appointment of justices to the Constitutional Court, a move seen as critical to the nation’s governance during this crisis.

Han’s actions amounted to ‘insurrection’?

The Democratic Party, which holds a parliamentary majority, spearheaded the motion against Han, arguing that his actions amounted to “insurrection.”

Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung called for swift action to restore public trust and stability, citing overwhelming public support for Yoon’s removal following his martial law decision.

“The only way to normalize the country is to root out all insurrection forces,” Lee declared in a heated address before the vote.

Despite strong objections from the ruling People Power Party, the impeachment motion passed amid chaotic scenes in parliament, with lawmakers clashing over the validity of the vote.

Han, who had served as acting president since Yoon’s suspension, stated he would step down to prevent further instability and await the Constitutional Court’s ruling on his impeachment.

Choi Sang-mok steps into acting presidency role

Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok has stepped into the acting presidency role, inheriting a challenging economic and political environment.

Prior to the vote, Choi warned parliament against impeaching Han, citing potential harm to South Korea’s economy.

The South Korean won fell to 1,475.4 per dollar, declining 0.53% following news of the impeachment.

The uncertainty surrounding the leadership crisis has raised concerns among investors, with analysts closely monitoring the Constitutional Court’s proceedings.

The court now has 180 days to decide whether to uphold or overturn the impeachment of Yoon and Han, a ruling that could reshape South Korea’s political landscape.

Constitutional Court’s role in the crisis

As the court convened for its first hearing on Yoon’s impeachment, questions loomed over the broader implications of the crisis.

Han’s impeachment marked an unprecedented move, as lawmakers debated whether a simple majority or a two-thirds vote was required to remove an acting president.

Speaker Woo Won-shik clarified that a simple majority was sufficient, paving the way for the motion to pass.

The ongoing trial of Yoon and the leadership vacuum created by Han’s removal have left South Korea at a political crossroads.

Observers note that the Constitutional Court’s decision will not only determine the fate of the country’s leadership but also set a precedent for addressing future political crises.

As South Korea navigates this turbulent chapter, both its political and economic stability hang in the balance, with domestic and international stakeholders watching closely for signs of resolution.

The post South Korean parliament impeaches acting President Han Duck-soo: here’s why appeared first on Invezz

The year 2024 has proven to be a turning point for the entire world, but especially for Latin America. As a diverse region, LATAM has seen significant economic, social, and political changes.

These are the five most noteworthy news stories for the region in 2024, according to Invezz.

Venezuela’s electoral chaos

Venezuela faced a critical juncture. The outcome of the July 28 elections, marred by technical issues and allegations of fraud, has intensified the country’s political and economic crisis. 

With growing public dissent and international scrutiny, the path forward remains uncertain. 

The CNE’s announcement of Maduro’s victory was met with scepticism from the international community. The official results declared Maduro the winner with 51.20% of the vote, while González received 44.2%. 

This outcome has been met with immediate backlash from various nations. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed at the time serious concerns, questioning the legitimacy of the results and calling for transparent vote counting.

This political incident also had an impact on Venezuela’s economic prospects. Over the last quarter, the Bolivar has lost at least 36% of its value against the dollar, as political instability dominates people’s purchasing decisions.

Furthermore, newly elected President Donald Trump had threatened Venezuela with stopping to purchase its oil, claiming that the United States “produces more than enough”. Adding to the already difficult economic situation, since oil is the country’s primary source of revenue.

The future remains uncertain as the forthcoming swearing-in event (January 10th) approaches, and the true winner is still unknown. This puts the international community in a difficult political decision about Venezuela.

Trade and migration tensions between the US and Mexico

On November 4th, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had a conversation with Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, about migration and security.

This talk followed Trump’s post-electoral threats to impose tariffs on Mexico.

He claimed he had convinced Sheinbaum to take quick action to reduce the flow of migrants heading to the US, insisting that Mexico would act promptly to stop people from trying to cross its southern border.

However, Sheinbaum offered a different perspective on their discussion, suggesting that such threats could lead to necessary trade tensions.

With uncertainty lingering about whether these tariffs will be put in place, Sheinbaum expressed her openness to dialogue but cautioned about the potential negative impact these tariffs could have on both countries’ economies.

She pointed out that tariffs might trigger retaliatory actions, posing risks to important industries in the US, especially the automotive sector, naming major companies like General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford.

The Mexican president showed a strong commitment to finding a resolution to these issues while maintaining the important trade ties between the U.S. and Mexico.

Brazil implemented a 15% minimum tax on the profits of MNCs

Brazil’s government took a significant step in 2024 towards fiscal reform by implementing a minimum 15% tax on the profits of multinational corporations, as detailed in an executive order published in the country’s official gazette late Thursday.

This initiative aimed to bolster revenue in light of the government’s ambitious goal of achieving a zero fiscal deficit while avoiding broad spending cuts that could jeopardize essential social programs.

By aligning with global efforts to combat tax evasion, Brazil seeks to stabilize its financial framework and ensure fair taxation for multinational entities.

The executive order specifies that this new tax will serve as an additional levy on Brazil’s existing social contribution tax on corporate income (CSLL).

This change ensures that all multinational corporations, regardless of their previous tax strategies, will now be subject to the minimum tax requirement.

Brazilian authorities emphasized that this shift represents a broader commitment to sound fiscal management and international cooperation.

While the increased tax burden may reduce profit margins, it also levels the playing field within the tax system, diminishing incentives for aggressive tax optimization strategies that could disrupt fair competition.

Companies will need to reassess their fiscal strategies to accommodate the new tax regime, potentially leading to modifications in investment strategies and operating models.

The Brazilian government has indicated that robust compliance measures will be crucial for the effective enforcement of the minimum tax while minimizing administrative burdens on businesses.

Colombia’s Congress rejects tax reform

Colombia’s Congress dealt a big blow to President Gustavo Petro’s administration this year by rejecting a critical tax reform to strengthen the country’s budget for the coming year.

The proposed reform, championed by Finance Minister Diego Guevara, was to secure an additional 9.8 trillion pesos (about $2.24 billion) for the national treasury.

This denial shows Petro’s administration’s financial troubles and the difficulties of negotiating amid a turbulent legislative scene.

This year, the government has already reduced its spending by 28.4 trillion pesos ($6.49 billion) due to low tax revenue.

These budget cuts highlight the seriousness of Colombia’s fiscal condition, forcing the government to look for new revenue streams through tax reform.

Despite the urgency, economic committees in Congress voted against the proposed reforms, highlighting a deepening divide between the executive and legislative branches.

El Salvador considers Bitcoin law changes to secure IMF loan

El Salvador, the pioneering country that introduced Bitcoin legal tender, recently proposed major changes to its Bitcoin legislation.

This perspective shift occurred as the government was seeking a pivotal agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.3 billion loan.

The revisions would allow El Salvador to address the IMF’s ongoing worries about the financial ramifications of its cryptocurrency effort, which was started in September 2021.

According to reports by Cointelegraph, El Salvador was negotiating a $1.3 billion loan deal with the IMF, with conversations ongoing since October.

Also, according to the Financial Times, if the agreement is ratified, it will need considerable changes to current Bitcoin laws.

One of the most significant changes would be the removal of the statutory obligation for businesses to accept Bitcoin as payment.

By implementing this approach, the Salvadoran government wanted to secure an additional $2 billion in funding from foreign financial organizations, particularly the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank.

The post Top five LATAM news stories that made headlines in 2024: here’s a recap appeared first on Invezz

Britain’s economic trajectory shows signs of stagnation, according to new research from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which predicts that UK living standards will increasingly diverge from American levels over the next 15 years.

The analysis reveals that while British GDP per capita is expected to reach $86,141 (£68,800) by 2039, this figure will be closer to Guyana’s projected $78,695 than America’s $148,411, raising questions about Britain’s long-term economic competitiveness.

UK GDP per head growth is among the weakest

In the shorter term, the UK is set to maintain its current 22nd position globally for GDP per capita through 2029, moving up just one place by 2039.

The CEBR forecasts that Britain will experience among the weakest GDP per head growth rates in the G7 over the next five years.

CEBR economist Pushpin Singh warns these projections indicate Britain risks “falling behind in the global economic race.”

Singh notes that the UK’s economic performance increasingly resembles France rather than the United States, particularly in productivity and public spending.

UK welfare spending is still not as bad as France. But are we on the road there? I think so in terms of elevated welfare spending, tax receipts not being enough to make up for that welfare spending and other spending commitments such as the NHS and other civil service sector spending.

What is behind the UK’s underperformance?

The research points to several key factors behind Britain’s projected underperformance, including lagging productivity growth, especially within the civil service, and rising government debt as a share of GDP.

The findings also present potential challenges for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s pledges to improve living standards.

A stark contrast emerges between the UK and the US in post-pandemic productivity performance.

While American productivity has been “off the charts” since COVID-19 according to Singh, Britain continues to struggle with productivity growth across multiple sectors.

The data suggests a growing divergence between Anglo-American economic models, with Britain’s trajectory more closely aligning with European welfare state approaches despite historically closer ties to American-style capitalism.

These projections raise significant questions about Britain’s future economic position and the policies needed to boost productivity and living standards to maintain competitiveness with other leading economies.

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As 2024 draws to a close, it is clear that the year has been marked by seismic shifts across politics, economics, technology, and geopolitics.

From groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence to unprecedented changes in the cryptocurrency landscape, this year has been one of transformative events.

Political realignments, economic challenges, and new global conflicts have reshaped the world order, setting the stage for a complex 2025.

Donald Trump returns to the White House

Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election marked a historic political comeback.

Despite controversies surrounding the January 6 Capitol riot, Trump capitalised on economic discontent and immigration concerns to secure a win.

His return to the presidency signalled a potential shift in US foreign and domestic policy, with Republicans holding the slimmest House majority in history.

The implications of Trump’s presidency for global geopolitics remain uncertain, but early indications suggest a focus on reshaping trade and international alliances.

Bitcoin reaches $100,000 milestone

Bitcoin achieved a major psychological benchmark in 2024, crossing $100,000.

This milestone bolstered its status as a legitimate financial asset, attracting institutional and governmental interest.

Companies like MicroStrategy saw their stock valuations soar, while nations previously sceptical of crypto, including Japan and Russia, began considering Bitcoin reserves.

Major corporations like Amazon also explored integrating Bitcoin into their operations, signalling the cryptocurrency’s growing acceptance.

However, concerns over volatility persisted, highlighting the need for regulatory clarity and stability.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs revolutionise crypto investment

The approval of 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in January 2024 marked a historic moment for cryptocurrency.

The funds, which allowed retail investors to access Bitcoin through regulated markets, saw unprecedented success.

Within two months, Bitcoin shattered its previous record, crossing $70,000 in March.

By Christmas 2024, US-based Bitcoin ETFs managed over $105 billion in assets, representing nearly 5.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

Their rapid growth even outpaced gold ETFs, underscoring crypto’s growing institutional acceptance.

The development also prompted other markets, including the UK, to introduce Bitcoin-based exchange-traded products.

Ethereum ETFs soon followed, with altcoins vying for similar approval.

Anti-incumbency wave reshapes global politics

Elections in 2024 toppled political incumbents across the world.

Countries such as India, Japan, and South Africa saw dominant parties lose seats, often resulting in fragile coalition governments.

In the United States and United Kingdom, dissatisfaction with economic conditions and immigration policies led to sweeping changes in leadership.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble on snap parliamentary elections backfired, threatening his presidency.

Similarly, Germany’s ruling coalition collapsed after poor state election results.

This global trend highlighted voters’ frustrations with stagnating economies and increasing scepticism about democratic governance.

AI pushes the boundaries of innovation

Artificial intelligence (AI) continued its meteoric rise in 2024, blending science fiction with reality.

The year saw groundbreaking advancements in AI applications, ranging from healthcare innovations to manufacturing efficiencies.

Highlighting AI’s significance, the Nobel Committees awarded prizes in physics and chemistry to pioneers in machine learning and protein structure prediction.

Despite the excitement, the AI revolution exposed limitations—notably the shortage of skilled professionals and the immense resource demands of training AI models.

These constraints reinforced fears of an expanding gap between wealthy and poorer nations.

Meanwhile, global discussions on AI regulation gained momentum but remained inconclusive as the technology’s rapid evolution outpaced policy frameworks.

China exports spark fears of a second shock

China’s economic trajectory took a decisive turn in 2024, reviving memories of the “China shock” from the early 2000s.

Facing internal economic challenges and declining consumer demand, Beijing doubled down on exports, ramping up subsidies to domestic manufacturers.

The resulting surplus overwhelmed global markets, with low-cost Chinese solar panels and electric vehicles flooding international trade routes. While these products facilitated greener transitions, many nations worried about their impact on local industries.

The European Union implemented measures to curb the influx of Chinese goods, while Brazil, India, and the United States imposed new tariffs. Washington’s tariffs are set to rise further in 2025, heightening trade tensions. Whether this escalation leads to greater conflict or fosters negotiations remains an open question.

Solana meme coins dominate crypto narratives

2024 became synonymous with the explosive growth of Solana’s meme coin ecosystem.

Platforms like Pump.fun catalysed the craze, propelling Solana’s meme coins to capture 7.65% of crypto market discussions.

Meme coins like Dogwifhat (WIF) and BONK experienced meteoric rises, with BONK recording a staggering 38,000% growth over two years.

This frenzy elevated Solana to the second-largest blockchain by total value locked (TVL), exceeding $8.6 billion, while SOL reached a record $263 in November. The extreme volatility of these assets posed risks, with most traders facing losses amid speculative trading.

Russia advances in Ukraine as war grinds on

The third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine saw significant developments.

Russia adopted a “meat-grinder” strategy in eastern Ukraine, gaining territory at the cost of heavy casualties—over 115,000 soldiers killed and 500,000 wounded.

Ukraine’s losses, while lower, were still devastating, with 43,000 soldiers killed and 370,000 wounded.

Amidst these losses, Kyiv launched cross-border attacks into Russia’s Kursk region, forcing Moscow to deploy North Korean troops to defend its territory.

Meanwhile, Western nations reversed long-standing policies, supplying Kyiv with advanced weapons, including long-range missiles. As 2025 begins, the question looms whether either side can sustain the attritional warfare that has defined the conflict.

Escalation in the Middle East

Hamas’ October 2023 attack on Israel triggered a year of violence and instability in the Middle East.

By 2024’s end, the death toll exceeded 45,000, and Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepened.

Israel’s retaliatory actions included targeted strikes on Hamas leaders and Iranian-backed groups.

The conflict extended into Syria and Lebanon, where Israel’s operations significantly weakened Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Iran’s involvement escalated tensions further, with missile and drone attacks on Israel leading to retaliatory strikes that crippled Iranian missile production.

These events left the region more volatile, raising questions about the prospects for peace or further disorder.

Gary Gensler’s resignation reshapes crypto regulation

The resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler in November 2024 marked a turning point for US crypto policy.

Known for his stringent regulatory stance, Gensler’s departure raised hopes for a more favourable environment under his successor, Paul Atkins, a proponent of digital assets.

Under Gensler, the SEC pursued enforcement actions against major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, causing friction within the industry. His exit created optimism for a shift toward policies encouraging innovation and growth in the crypto space.

Governments across the world crumble

In Bangladesh, mass protests in early August 2024 led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after a 16-year rule. Student-led demonstrations over alleged authoritarian practices forced Hasina to flee to India.

Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus now heads an interim government tasked with steering the nation towards democracy. However, questions remain about whether Yunus can rebuild democratic institutions or if political instability will persist.

France’s government fell on 4 December after Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote, the first such collapse since 1962.

Germany’s coalition government disintegrated due to financial disputes, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissing Finance Minister Christian Lindner in November.

In Syria, opposition forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad’s regime on 8 December, ending 50 years of autocratic rule. The rapid fall of Damascus marked a major turning point for the region.

South Korea saw political turmoil on 3 December when President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, later repealed following mass protests and parliamentary opposition.

The situation left the government paralysed, exposing deep divisions within the ruling party. While the South Korean government still stands, it is on shaky ground.

The post Recap 2024: Trump’s triumph, Bitcoin’s comeback and geopolitical turmoil appeared first on Invezz

Dr Manmohan Singh, India’s 14th Prime Minister, passed away on Thursday, December 26, 2024, at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) in Delhi. He was 92 years old.

A towering figure in India’s political and economic history, Singh’s life journey was one of remarkable intellect, dedication, and service.

Born on September 26, 1932, in Gah, a village in the Punjab province of undivided India (now in Pakistan), Singh rose from modest beginnings to leave an indelible mark on the world stage.

After completing his matriculation at Punjab University in 1948, he earned a bachelor’s degree in economics in 1952 and a master’s degree in 1954, both from Panjab University.

His academic brilliance won him a scholarship to the University of Cambridge, where he graduated with first-class honors in the Economic Tripos in 1957.

He later obtained a DPhil in economics from Nuffield College, Oxford, in 1962, with a dissertation critically examining India’s trade policies.

In this article, we detail how an atypical politician like Singh came to become one of India’s most consequential leaders.

Tributes pour in from around the world

From politicians to movie stars, people from around the world paid their respects to Singh.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed condolences, highlighting Singh’s journey from humble beginnings to becoming a respected economist, Finance Minister, and Prime Minister.

He praised Dr. Singh’s contributions to economic policy, his insightful parliamentary interventions, and his efforts to improve lives.

Former Maldivian President Abdulla Shahid and Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai also shared their condolences.

Gautam Adani, one of India’s richest men also paid his respects to the former prime minister.

Indian filmstars Kapil Sharma and Anupam Kher paid tributes to the leader. Kher played the role of Singh in a feature film on the former prime minister’s life.

Manmohan Singh: the advisor for all seasons

Manmohan Singh’s early years as an advisor in politics laid the foundation for his rise as one of India’s most consequential leaders.

His transition from academia to government in 1971 was prompted by his appointment as economic advisor to the commerce ministry.

This move marked the beginning of a remarkable career as a trusted technocrat.

Though his stint at the commerce ministry was brief, it was eventful—Singh even threatened to resign when his principles clashed with Commerce Minister LN Mishra.

Intervention by PN Haksar, then a key aide to Indira Gandhi, led to Singh’s promotion to chief economic advisor in the finance ministry.

From 1972 to 1980, Singh worked under four finance ministers—YB Chavan, C Subramaniam, HM Patel, and Charan Singh—through periods of economic and political turbulence.

As an economic advisor and later economic affairs secretary, he was pivotal in steering policies during Indira Gandhi’s shift toward socialism, including her controversial bank nationalization.

Singh’s integrity and intellect earned him bipartisan respect, helping him navigate politically charged periods like the Emergency and the Janata government’s tenure.

Despite being close to Indira Gandhi, he survived regime changes, thanks partly to his friendships with key leaders like HM Patel.

Singh stood firm against external pressures, opposing questionable decisions such as permitting the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) to open a branch in India.

The beginning of the rise

In the politically fluid late 1980s, Singh briefly served as an economic advisor in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) during Chandra Shekhar’s tenure.

Despite offers from prestigious academic institutions, including the University of Delhi and Panjab University, Singh opted for public service.

However, as the Chandra Shekhar government neared its collapse, Singh transitioned to a safer role as Chairman of the University Grants Commission (UGC) in 1991.

The following months were marked by economic turmoil and political instability.

After the Congress emerged victorious in the 1991 general elections, PV Narasimha Rao became Prime Minister.

Few anticipated that Singh, a technocrat with no political base, would be entrusted with the crucial Finance Ministry portfolio.

Even Singh himself did not initially take the offer seriously, assuming it was an oversight.

He famously called himself the accidental finance minister.

The architect behind India’s economic reforms

Singh’s tenure as Finance Minister coincided with one of the most challenging periods in India’s economic history.

Amidst a balance of payments crisis, he introduced sweeping reforms that dismantled the Licence Raj and opened India’s economy to global markets.

Key measures included devaluing the Indian currency, liberalizing trade, and reducing industrial licensing restrictions.

Singh also reformed taxation, cutting personal income tax rates, slashing corporate tax, and reducing customs duties.

His innovative policies included introducing a presumptive tax for small businesses and laying the foundation for a service tax regime.

On fiscal discipline, he abolished ad hoc treasury bills, ensuring the government could no longer monetize deficits through RBI funding.

Despite these successes, his tenure was not without challenges. The 1992 securities scam briefly marred his reputation, prompting him to offer his resignation—a recurring theme in his career when faced with political pressure or setbacks.

Each time, Prime Minister Rao convinced him to stay, recognizing the importance of Singh’s leadership during turbulent times.

Singh’s tenure as Finance Minister was pivotal in shaping India’s economic trajectory.

Over five transformative years, he implemented liberalization reforms that stabilized the economy and laid the groundwork for sustained growth.

These measures cemented his legacy as a visionary leader in India’s modern economic and political history.

Manmohan Singh: India’s 14th prime minister

In May 2004, the Congress party’s victory in the general elections set the stage for a historic decision.

While Congress president Sonia Gandhi was widely expected to assume the role of prime minister, she chose to nominate Manmohan Singh to lead the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

Singh became India’s 14th prime minister, a position he held for a decade, becoming the first leader since Jawaharlal Nehru to serve two consecutive full terms.

Singh’s tenure as prime minister was closely scrutinized, particularly due to the unique power-sharing arrangement within the UPA, with Sonia Gandhi leading the coalition and Singh heading the government.

This dual structure often raised questions about decision-making authority, though Singh himself maintained that governance required a singular power center.

Initially, Singh expressed interest in retaining the finance ministry—a portfolio he had managed with unmatched success during India’s economic crisis. However, he ultimately appointed P. Chidambaram to the role, focusing his efforts on broader governance.

Singh’s prime ministership was marked by the rollout of rights-based policies, including the Right to Information (RTI), the Right to Education (RTE), and the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA).

These initiatives underscored his commitment to social empowerment and inclusive development.

Economic growth during his first term benefited from the reforms of the past two decades, but the global financial crisis in 2008 presented a significant challenge.

Singh responded decisively, unveiling stimulus packages to revive the economy and approving a substantial ₹60,000 crore loan waiver for farmers. While this move drew criticism from economists, it reflected his emphasis on addressing rural distress.

A highlight of Singh’s first term was the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement, a landmark deal that ended India’s nuclear isolation and redefined its strategic partnership with the United States.

Despite fierce political opposition, Singh’s steadfast commitment ensured the agreement’s success, cementing his reputation as a leader capable of taking bold political risks.

Singh’s second term was marked by economic challenges and political controversies.

The retrospective tax on foreign company transactions, known as the Vodafone tax, drew criticism from the industry and international investors.

Meanwhile, allegations of corruption, particularly in telecom spectrum and coal block allocations, marred the UPA government’s reputation.

Though Singh himself was not implicated, these controversies fueled accusations of policy paralysis and weakened public confidence.

Despite these setbacks, Singh’s tenure concluded with significant achievements alongside the challenges.

Manmohan Singh’s legacy

Manmohan Singh’s legacy stands as a testament to his intellect, integrity, and vision, defining him as one of India’s most transformative leaders.

As an economist, he steered the country out of its worst financial crisis, laying the foundation for liberalization that propelled decades of growth.

As a reformer, his policies reshaped India’s economic landscape, balancing bold initiatives with an acute understanding of political realities.

As a leader, he upheld the values of pragmatism and humility, navigating challenges with quiet resolve and a steadfast commitment to the nation’s progress.

The post Manmohan Singh, Indian ex-PM, dies at 92: his journey from a technocrat to a transformative leader appeared first on Invezz

Holiday retail sales in the United States in 2024 outpaced forecasts, with consumers flocking to last-minute online deals and convenient shopping options like curbside pickup and free delivery.

Despite inflationary pressures, total spending during the season from November 1 to December 24 grew by 3.8% over the previous year, surpassing the anticipated 3.2% increase.

US holiday retail sales 2024: online sales lead the way

According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, online sales surged 6.7% compared to 2023, significantly outpacing the 2.9% growth in in-store purchases.

Services like “buy online, pick up in-store” (BOPIS) and fast, free delivery played a critical role in driving e-commerce activity.

Salesforce data revealed that BOPIS orders doubled during the weekend before Christmas, making up nearly 40% of all online transactions.

Retailers like Walmart and Target capitalized on this trend, enhancing their digital platforms and advertising on TikTok and streaming services to engage tech-savvy shoppers.

Disciplined promotions, targeted strategies

Unlike previous years marked by deep discounts, retailers maintained a disciplined approach to promotions.

Companies like Walmart, Target, and Dollar General strategically reduced prices and increased advertising to remain competitive.

Target and Dollar Tree shares reflected these efforts, gaining nearly 3% during the peak shopping period.

Bernstein analysts noted that shoppers remained selective, focusing on needs-based purchases.

To entice cautious consumers, Walmart emphasized its rollback pricing, while Target intensified its promotional campaigns.

These strategies paid off, as the last five days of the holiday season accounted for 10% of all spending, highlighting a late surge in consumer activity.

US holiday retail sales 2024: popular categories

Laptops, TVs featuring new technology, and athleisure apparel were among the top-performing categories.

Jewelry and electronics also saw significant growth, with sales rising 4% and 3.7%, respectively, over 2023 levels, according to Mastercard.

Online sales of apparel grew 6.7%, far outpacing the 0.2% growth in physical stores.

Steve Sadove, senior adviser to Mastercard and former Saks CEO, told Reuters that consumer spending remained robust despite inflationary challenges.

“Promotions were controlled. Nothing was extra deep, and there were no panicked promotions. What we saw was real consumer strength,” Sadove was quoted as saying.

He credited low unemployment rates and higher wages for buffering personal finances during the holiday season.

With only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, five fewer than last year, retailers faced a condensed shopping season.

Many adjusted their strategies to attract shoppers, including increasing ad spend and emphasizing membership perks like quick delivery options.

Retail giants also leveraged lab-grown diamonds and innovative technology in products to appeal to value-driven consumers.

FedEx reported stronger-than-expected holiday delivery volumes, further reflecting the robust demand for online shopping.

The post US holiday retail sales 2024: what drove the unexpected surge? appeared first on Invezz

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) continued retreating this week, falling from the year-to-date high of $100.2 to the current $87.82. It has plunged to its lowest level since May 31st and formed a death cross pattern. So, what next for the blue-chip bond ETF as outflows surge?

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond outflows surge

The TLT ETF has plunged hard in the past few weeks as US bond yields have soared after the highly hawkish Federal Reserve decision

In that meeting, the Fed slashed interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the cumulative cuts to 1%, and hinted that more was coming. 

The bank also pointed to two more interest rate hikes in 2025, with analysts at UBS expecting it to restart in June. 

This decision was more hawkish since officials had hinted that the bank would deliver four cuts in 2025. It is now more concerned about the policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration.

Trump has made many pledges that will impact the bond market. One is to slash taxes, which will increase the deficit. An independent watchdog predicts a $7.5 trillion surge in the deficit in the next decade.

Trump has also pledged to introduce tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, Canadian, and European goods to lower the deficit. Tariffs are indirect taxes since Americans pay for them in the form of higher prices. 

Meanwhile, his plan to deport millions of illegal migrants will also lead to more inflation since these people are the biggest employees in industries like construction and agriculture. 

Bond yields have soared, therefore, as investors anticipate more inflation in 2025 and fewer cuts. The ten-year yield rose to 4.57%, the highest since May, while the 30-year rose to 4.765% and the five-year moved to 4.43%. 

The TLT ETF has crashed as investors abandoned long-term bonds. ETF.com data shows that the fund is on track to have its biggest monthly outflows in years. It has shed over $5.3 billion in assets this month after losing $1.3 billion last month. These flows bring the year-to-date net inflows to $5.2 billion. 

TLT ETF inflows and outflows

The TLT ETF faces major headwinds ahead as US public debt surges to a record high of $36.3 trillion. At some point, especially if Trump succeeds in implementing some of his policies, there is a likelihood that the fund will continue falling as default risks rise.

TLT ETF analysis

TLT chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the TLT ETF stock has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months, as we predicted. The sell-off continued after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish tone than expected. 

It has recently dropped below the key support at $88.83, its lowest swing in November this year. The fund has also formed a death cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. 

It is also nearing the lower side of the descending channel, while the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have pointed downwards. Therefore, the fund will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at $80, 9% below the current level. 

The post TLT ETF stock forms death cross as outflows surge: what next? appeared first on Invezz

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), Invesco QQQ (QQQ), and SPDR Dow Jones (DIA) ETFs have had a strong performance in the past two years. The QQQ ETF had total returns of 54% in 2023 and 30% this year.

Similarly, the SPY fund rose by 26% and 28% in the same period, while the DIA jumped by 16% and 17%. This performance happened as American companies published strong financial results, and the AI tailwinds continue. Still, there is a risk that the bond market will push these indices sharply downwards in 2025.

US bond yields are rising

Top economists are warning that the performance of the bond market could lead to a crash of the stock market in 2025.

In a recent X post, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said that most assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, were highly overvalued. 

Like in the past, assets can remain overvalued for a long time without suffering a harsh reversal. The past crashes happens after a major catalyst such as the collapse of the real estate market in 2009, the Covid pandemic in 2020, and the burst of the dot com bubble in 2000.

Zandi believes that the spark that may crash the stock market in 2025 will be the Federal Reserve and the impact on the bond market.

He expects the bond market to face a steep correction because of some of Donald Trump’s policies. Trump’s policies of mass deportations, tariffs, and big tax cuts will likely fuel inflation and push the Fed to hike interest rates. 

At the same time, concerns about developments in the bond market are growing. Some of the biggest buyers are no longer buying. China has continued to pare back its US bond holdings, while Japan has largely stopped buying. Besides, Japan can now earn some yields in the domestic market as the Bank of Japan hikes rates.

Therefore, the impact is that most of US bonds will be bought by the Federal Reserve and institutional investors. The latter might start to abandon their positions as soon as risks start to emerge. 

All this will lead to higher bond yields, drawing some stock investors as we saw in 2022 when the Fed was hiking rates. 

There are signs that this is already happening. The 10-year yield rose to 4.57%, the highest level since May this year. Similarly, the 30-year and five-year yields have risen to 4.76% and 4.4% even as the Fed slashed rates.

Jim Bianco, another popular analyst, has pointed to the iShares 20-Treasury ETF (ETF) performance, which has continued to see robust outflows. 

SPY ETF stock formed a rising wedge pattern

The other reason why the three ETFs will suffer a harsh reversal is that the S&P 500 index has formed a rising wedge chart pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is made up of two converging trendlines, which have been forming in the past few months. It has formed a break and retest chart pattern, a popular sign of continuation. 

Therefore, the stock will likely resume the downward trend in 2025. Besides, there are signs that the artificial intelligence tailwinds that have fueled the market are starting to fade. If this happens, the SPY ETF will drop initially to $565, its lowest point on November 4. 

A break below that level will point to more downside. A crash of the S&P 500 will likely lead to more downside of the other US indices like the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index.

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The South Korean won has crashed to a record low as the US dollar gained momentum and the country’s political crisis remained. The USD/KRW exchange rate rose to a high of 1,486, a record high, and then pared back some of these gains to 1,470.

South Korea political and economic crisis

The USD/KRW pair has soared because of the ongoing South Korean economic and political crisis.

The political crisis culminated in the impeachment of the last South Korean President, Yoon Suk Yeul for declaring a state of emergency

Han Duck-Soo, the acting resident since December 14, replaced him. Now, there are signs that the country’s opposition party is working to impeach Soo for his actions during the state of emergency. 

Duck-Soo was the prime minister then and will likely be accused of being an accomplice to Yeul. If he is impeached, and if Yeul loses during the constitutional court, it means that South Korea will go to an election in the next 60 days.

Therefore, the South Korean won has plunged because of the potential political uncertainty in the country. 

The USD/KRW pair has also surged because the economy is not doing so well because of Samsung, the biggest company in the country. Samsung Electronics’ stock price has crashed by almost 40% from the highest point this year as it continued to lag behind other semiconductor giants like Taiwan Semiconductor and NVIDIA on artificial intelligence. 

Samsung’s performance is important because it accounts for about 22.4% of the country’s GDP and employs over 130,000 people. 

Other South Korean companies are facing challenges because of the resurgence China, which has now become a leading player in the auto industry. That will ultimately affect companies like Hyundai, Renault, and Samsung, which sell many vehicles abroad. 

The most recent data showed that South Korea’s economy barely grew in the third quarter as its exports dropped. Consumer spending growth partially offset exports as wages in the country grew.

Therefore, the South Korean central bank will likely maintain robust expansionary policies in the next few months. It has already pumped over $47 billion to the economy and started cutting interest rates. It lashed rates to 3%, and analysts see more cuts happening soon.

The USD/KRW pair has also surged because of the ongoing strong US dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against several developed world currencies, has jumped to the highest level in over two years after the hawkish Fed. US bond yields have also soared, a sign that investors anticipate the Fed to be more hawkish. 

The South Korean won’s plunge is also in sync with other emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Indian rupee that have reacted to Donald Trump’s election. 

USD/KRW technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD/KRW exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend this year and now sits at a record high. It has jumped above the key resistance level at 1,400, the highest swing in April this year.

The pair has constantly remained above all moving averages, which is a positive sign. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have all pointed upwards and become overbought.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the South Korean won rises gradually rises as these concerns continue. The pair will then drop in 2025, potentially to the support at 1,400. This is a common occurrence, where an asset makes a strong bullish breakout and then resumes the downtrend and retests the key support level. 

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Quantum computing stocks have gone parabolic this month as investors pile into this sector, comparing it to the artificial intelligence industry. 

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock has soared by over 542% in the last 30 days, while Quantum-Si (QSI) has surged by 65% in the same period.

Quantum Corporation (QMCO) stock price surged by 290%, while IONQ is up 60% in the last 30 days, as I predicted in 2023. 

The quantum computing hype has also hit companies with no business in the sector. For example. QuantumScape Corporation (QS) has soared by 20% just because of its name. Unlike the other companies, QS is in the electric vehicle industry, where it is building battery technologies. 

There are a few reasons to sell these quantum computing stocks as the surge gains momentum. 

Major themes often disappoint

The first major reason to sell quantum computing stocks like Rigetti Computing, Quantum Corporation, and IONQ is that major themes often don’t work out in the long term. This performance is mostly because the market is usually driven by fear and greed. 

Greed in quantum computing stocks has risen this year after analysts expressed hope that it could evolve into the next big thing. They also jumped after Google’s big quantum computing milestone earlier this month.

As such, investors who missed the fast-growing artificial intelligence industry have moved to quantum stocks. However, historically, companies often predicted to be big winners in key industries have not performed well. For example, most cannabis and electric vehicle stocks have plunged after their initial surge.

Read more: Here’s why the IONQ and Rigetti Computing stocks have surged

Wyckoff Method markdown is possible

The other reason to sell these quantum computing stocks is the traditional approach known as the Wyckoff Method.

Wyckoff is a theory that explains how financial assets perform over time. These assets move from accumulation, which is characterized by consolidation and is then followed by mark up, which is made up of higher demand than supply. These stocks are now in this markup phase.

They will then move to the distribution and mark-down phase, which is characterized by a steep sell-off. Therefore, there are rising odds that they will move to the markdown phase as investors start to take profits.

In line with the Wyckoff Method, the stocks will crash because of a concept known as mean reversion. This situation is where stocks and other assets drop and return to their mean levels after a strong surge. This means the reversion concept has recently worked well in the crypto industry.

Additionally, their stocks have become highly overbought as their Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillators have soared. Stocks often retreat when they become highly overbought.

Quantum computing stocks valuation and dilution concerns remain

Additionally, these quantum computing stocks will crash because their valuation metrics have become highly stretched in the past few months. 

IONQ has become a $9.6 billion company despite having just $37.5 million in revenues in the trailing twelve months. It had a $171 million loss in the same period.

Rigetti Computing’s market cap has risen to over $3.18 billion despite generating $11.9 million in revenues in the TTM. It had a net loss of over $61 million during that period.

Quantum Corporation is now a $217 million company with a net loss of over $62 million in the TTM.

Therefore, these companies will likely use the ongoing stock price surge to raise cash in the next few months. Selling shares is one of the most popular ways in which companies raise capital cheaply. Doing that usually dilutes existing shareholders, tanking the stock.

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