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Jimmy Carter, the former US president and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has passed away at the age of 100, the Carter Center announced on Sunday.

Known for his unwavering commitment to peace and human rights, Carter rose from modest beginnings in rural Georgia to lead the nation from 1977 to 1981.

He passed away peacefully at his home in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family.

Carter’s life journey was extraordinary. Born and raised in Plains, he worked on his family’s peanut farm before entering public service.

He served as governor of Georgia and later ascended to the presidency, emphasizing human rights and diplomacy.

Despite a tenure in the White House that faced challenges, Carter’s post-presidency was marked by significant achievements, including his work on global health, democracy promotion, and conflict resolution through the Carter Center, which he founded in 1982.

Carter’s enduring legacy is not only as a statesman but also as a humanitarian whose efforts reshaped global perceptions of American leadership.

His contributions to eradicating diseases like Guinea worm and his tireless advocacy for peace earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002 and cemented his reputation as one of the most impactful former presidents in US history.

An official state funeral will be held in Washington DC to honor the 39th President of the United States.

Tributes pour in for Jimmy Carter

US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have both expressed their condolences and paid tribute to Carter’s legacy.

President Biden described Carter as “a great character and courage,” highlighting his lifelong commitment to serving others and his dedication to peace and human rights.

Biden remarked, “America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman, and humanitarian.

President-elect Trump acknowledged Carter’s efforts to improve the lives of Americans, stating, “He worked hard to make America a better place.”

Other former presidents, including Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, have also honored Carter’s memory, emphasising his contributions to civil rights, democracy, and humanitarian efforts.

World leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and King Charles III, have expressed their condolences, reflecting on Carter’s global impact and dedication to peace and social justice.

Jimmy Carter: the best ex-president

From losing his reelection bid to earning global recognition, Carter’s post-presidential legacy exemplifies resilience and service.

After his presidency ended in 1981, Carter founded the Carter Center in 1982 with his wife, Rosalynn, focusing on conflict resolution, human rights, public health, and democracy promotion.

His efforts earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002, recognizing his decades-long commitment to peaceful conflict resolution and humanitarian work.

The Carter Center has monitored 113 elections across 39 countries and advanced initiatives like women’s access to information in nations such as Liberia, Bangladesh, and Guatemala.

Gunnar Berge of the Nobel Committee aptly summarized Carter’s impact: “He may not be remembered as the most effective president, but he is certainly the best ex-president the country ever had.”

Carter’s remarkable journey from the White House to global statesmanship remains an enduring inspiration.

The post Jimmy Carter dies at 100: How will the world remember the ‘best ex-president’? appeared first on Invezz

El Salvador, the pioneering nation that made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, has surpassed 6,000 BTC in its treasury, valued at $561.3 million as of the latest update. This milestone represents not only a strategic accumulation effort but also a bold economic experiment under President Nayib Bukele’s leadership.

With a 105% unrealised return on its Bitcoin holdings, the country’s foray into cryptocurrency seems profitable on paper. Questions remain about the sustainability of this strategy, particularly as global economic conditions and crypto market volatility pose ongoing challenges.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin journey

El Salvador became a global crypto pioneer on 6 September 2021, adopting Bitcoin as legal tender alongside the US dollar. Its initial investment of 200 BTC has since grown through consistent purchases, including a $1 million buy after securing a $1.4 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

These investments have elevated El Salvador to the sixth-largest Bitcoin-holding nation, alongside powerhouses such as the United States and China.

Despite facing criticism from institutions like the IMF, Bukele’s administration doubled down on its Bitcoin strategy, implementing a daily BTC purchase program. This unwavering commitment has paid off during the recent cryptocurrency market recovery, with the nation’s portfolio experiencing a significant unrealised gain of $152 million.

The National Bitcoin Office has spearheaded this initiative, tracking and publicising data through Nayib Tracker. Over the past month alone, the country added 53 BTC, valued at $4.95 million, highlighting its systematic approach to accumulation.

These purchases have not only bolstered the treasury but also validated Bukele’s economic gamble—at least for now.

Can Bitcoin growth be maintained?

While El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has seen a financial turnaround, its long-term success hinges on several factors. The nation’s average acquisition cost of $45,465 per BTC raises questions about the sustainability of profits if market prices falter.

The cryptocurrency’s notorious volatility could undermine the government’s ability to leverage its holdings during economic downturns.

The $1.4 billion IMF deal provides temporary fiscal breathing room but also places pressure on the administration to demonstrate the viability of Bitcoin as an economic pillar. Critics argue that relying heavily on a speculative asset may expose the country to risks, particularly in the absence of diversified revenue streams.

Furthermore, global macroeconomic conditions remain a critical factor. With central banks tightening monetary policies and economic growth slowing in key markets, cryptocurrency adoption and valuations could face headwinds.

El Salvador’s crypto-centric strategy may also complicate relationships with international lenders, potentially limiting access to future funding.

What’s next for El Salvador’s Bitcoin ambitions?

As the country surpasses 6,000 BTC, valued at over half a billion dollars, its achievements are undeniably remarkable. Sustaining these gains requires careful navigation of market dynamics and economic policies.

The administration’s success in using Bitcoin to stimulate growth, attract investment, and maintain financial stability will determine whether El Salvador’s gamble sets a global precedent or becomes a cautionary tale.

By focusing on expanding initiatives through the National Bitcoin Office, El Salvador has an opportunity to solidify its position as a leader in crypto adoption. However, balancing this ambition with fiscal prudence will be crucial as the world watches this unprecedented experiment unfold.

The post El Salvador now holds 6,000 BTC: can Bitcoin success story sustain? appeared first on Invezz

According to a recent Reuters report, a record 3.4 million Chinese youth registered for this year’s notoriously competitive civil service exam, a sharp increase of over 400,000 from last year.

The allure? Job stability, subsidised housing, and the prestige associated with government roles.

Gen Z’s challenges

This surge highlights the challenges facing Gen Z in China as private sector opportunities dwindle amidst an economic slowdown and high youth unemployment.

Yet, beneath the appeal of “iron rice bowl” stability lies a less glamorous reality: wage cuts, bonus reductions, and unpaid salaries are increasingly common for civil servants, painting a more complex picture of these coveted roles.

Stability amid a turbulent Chinese economy

China’s economic slowdown, exacerbated by a prolonged property crisis and weak consumer spending, has left private sector prospects bleak.

Youth unemployment, while slightly lower in recent months, remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Against this backdrop, civil service jobs offer a refuge.

The sector’s reputation for job security and perks such as subsidised housing and social insurance is particularly attractive to disillusioned graduates navigating an uncertain job market.

The numbers tell the story. Civil service job vacancies have nearly tripled since 2014, climbing from 14,500 in 2019 to 39,700 in 2024.

This growth comes even as local governments grapple with fiscal crises, making it increasingly difficult to pay salaries and bonuses on time.

Nevertheless, for many, the perception of stability outweighs these risks, especially as layoffs in government jobs remain rare compared to the private sector.

Economic struggles overshadow the “iron rice bowl”

Despite the appeal, many civil servants face harsh economic realities.

Pay cuts of up to 30%, scrapped bonuses, and delayed salaries are now common across China’s public sector.

In Guangdong province, for example, some civil servants earn as little as 4,000 yuan per month after losing their monthly bonuses.

Meanwhile, in Shandong, many workers report receiving only a single month’s salary per quarter under austerity policies.

This financial strain is part of a broader wave of local government cost-cutting measures.

In cities like Shenzhen, entire departments have been downsized, and staff cuts are becoming more frequent.

These pressures have forced some civil servants to leave their roles, while others stay on, navigating what one employee described as “stable poverty.”

Wage arrears have become systemic, with some experts suggesting these challenges are unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

As a result, incidents of corruption and administrative fines have reportedly increased, raising questions about the sustainability of the current system.

A growing workforce despite fiscal pressures

China’s civil service workforce has swelled from 6.9 million in 2010 to 8 million today, with millions more employed in public institutions such as schools and hospitals.

Despite repeated downsizing efforts, Beijing continues to expand civil service hiring as a means of maintaining social stability.

This approach has come at a cost. Tens of thousands of public sector jobs have been cut since 2020, primarily through hiring freezes and attrition, leaving existing employees to shoulder the workload.

These challenges underline the complexity of balancing the state’s need for stability with the fiscal realities of supporting a vast public sector.

The lack of substantial reforms has led some experts to warn that expanding the civil service without addressing its inefficiencies may only exacerbate long-term issues.

The dilemma facing China’s youth

For many young Chinese, civil service jobs represent an idealised career path, particularly for those who have never experienced the mass state sector layoffs of the 1990s.

Social media memes, such as “Becoming a civil servant is the endpoint of the universe,” reflect this sentiment.

The realities of unpaid salaries and stagnant wages are causing some to reconsider their ambitions.

The surge in applicants underscores a generational struggle to reconcile aspirations for stability with the economic realities of modern China.

While civil service roles remain highly sought after, the risks associated with these jobs are becoming harder to ignore.

The post Why are 3.4 million Chinese youth vying for civil service jobs despite risks? appeared first on Invezz

With Donald Trump set to assume the US presidency in 2025, questions have cropped up regarding the future of his social media platform Truth Social, and its parent company Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT).

Trump’s latest move of transferring his ownership stake to a revocable trust which makes him an indirect owner of the stock, but gives his son Donald Trump Jr. the sole voting power over the shares has also raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

Besides, investors and analysts also seem to grapple with valuation challenges and have questions about the company’s growth strategies.

Trump’s trust arrangement raises ethical questions

Trump’s indirect ownership of TMTG—valued at over $4.2 billion—has drawn criticism for lacking transparency.

While he transferred his stake to a trust in December 2024, the arrangement allows Donald Jr. to maintain sole voting power, raising concerns over potential conflicts of interest.

“This is not a blind trust with an independent trustee, where people can have confidence that the conflicts of interest are in fact removed,” said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets in a Barron’s report.

President Trump having his son as the trustee looks more like a blind trust with one eye open.

Though US presidents are not legally obligated to adhere to conflict-of-interest laws, past officeholders have typically placed assets into fully independent blind trusts to avoid perceptions of impropriety.

Trump’s decision to forgo such measures has fuelled skepticism over whether the public and private roles can remain distinct.

Valuation concerns: Is Truth Social worth its price tag?

TMTG’s current valuation of $7.8 billion is under intense scrutiny given its limited financial performance.

The company reported a modest $1 million in revenue and a $19.2 million net loss for Q3 2024, leaving many to question the stock’s fundamentals.

Unlike most publicly traded companies, TMTG has no brokerage coverage, making its financial outlook speculative at best.

Additionally, institutional investors such as Vanguard and BlackRock hold small stakes in the company, primarily through index funds, which may not indicate confidence in its long-term prospects.

When compared to social media giants like Meta Platforms and ByteDance, TMTG’s position appears tenuous.

Meta’s market capitalization stands at $1.5 trillion, driven by robust revenue and engagement metrics.

Similarly, ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, is estimated to be worth $300 billion.

TMTG, by contrast, seems to derive its valuation largely from Trump’s personal brand rather than operational achievements.

DJT’s growth strategy: streaming services and crypto ventures

Amid these challenges, TMTG has outlined ambitious growth plans that extend beyond Truth Social.

The company’s Truth+ streaming video service is gaining traction, with availability on platforms like iOS and Android.

TMTG is also exploring opportunities in cryptocurrency and fintech to diversify its revenue streams.

Reports have surfaced that TMTG is considering acquiring Bakkt, a publicly traded crypto platform with a market capitalization of around $200 million.

Such a move would be financially feasible, given TMTG’s $673 million in cash reserves and debt-free balance sheet.

Devin Nunes, CEO of TMTG, has emphasized the company’s commitment to growth through potential mergers and acquisitions.

“We continue to explore additional possibilities for growth such as potential mergers and acquisitions…including in the realm of fintech,” he said in a recent earnings release.

While these strategies could provide new revenue streams, they also come with significant risks.

Earlier in November, the company filed a trademark for its potential cryptocurrency trading and payment platform, “TruthFi.”

The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and a misstep in this space could further erode investor confidence.

Retail investor enthusiasm wanes

Retail investors, once a key driver of DJT stock’s performance, appear to be losing interest.

Following Trump’s election victory in November, trading volumes for the stock have declined steadily.

“Retail investor demand for DJT has fallen since the election,” said JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America.

He told Barron’s that many Trump supporters who bought shares before the election may have seen their investment as a form of political expression rather than a financial decision.

Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick echoed this sentiment, observing that DJT’s popularity among traders has waned since peaking on election day.

“We’re not necessarily seeing selling in DJT, but there is not an influx of new buyers either,” Sosnick explained.

The lack of retail momentum is evident in DJT’s recent stock performance.

While shares have rebounded slightly since early November, they remain 30% below their October peak of $55 and are down over 50% from their March high of $80.

Possible catalysts: opportunities and risks

Despite the challenges, DJT stock retains the potential for sudden spikes, driven by unexpected developments.

A buyout offer, partnership with a fintech firm, or the launch of a new product line could reignite investor interest.

However, such catalysts remain speculative, and the risks associated with insider sales or regulatory scrutiny could temper optimism.

Insider ownership poses an additional layer of uncertainty. Several key figures associated with Trump’s administration, including Attorney General appointee Pam Bondi, own shares in TMTG.

If insiders begin offloading their stakes, it could trigger a sharp decline in stock prices.

The post What Donald Trump’s presidency means for DJT’s future: everything investors need to know appeared first on Invezz

The United Kingdom and the European Union are taking steps toward improving their strained relationship. 

Early in 2025, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will attend an informal summit with EU leaders, which will be the first such invitation since Brexit negotiations concluded in 2020.

This meeting will focus on defence and security cooperation as Europe faces multiple global challenges. 

With both the UK and Europe economies currently struggling to re-find their footing, perhaps a revisit on their relationship could provide more benefits than drawbacks for them.

What is driving the renewed engagement?

Geopolitical instability has highlighted shared interests between the UK and EU.

Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside rising tensions involving China and North Korea, pose threats to regional security. 

Additionally, Donald Trump’s return to the White House raises concerns over NATO’s reliability and new trade tariffs.

Brexit left the EU without one of its largest economies and strongest militaries.

For the UK, stepping away from the EU reduced its influence on the global stage.

Labour’s government, elected in mid-2024, sees improved EU relations as a way to address key domestic challenges like migration, economic recovery, and defense policy.

Labour’s plan for an “ambitious reset”

Labour’s foreign policy agenda prioritises EU relations, with Prime Minister Starmer promising an “ambitious reset.” 

Key ministers have engaged in active diplomacy. Chancellor Rachel Reeves addressed EU finance ministers, while Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with his EU counterparts.

Starmer himself visited Brussels to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

These efforts aim to integrate the UK into broader European goals without reopening contentious Brexit issues.

Starmer’s government seeks collaboration in areas like cross-border trade and energy security while maintaining regulatory autonomy.

What’s at stake economically?

The UK economy has faced significant challenges since Labour took office.

Between July and September 2024, GDP growth stagnated, according to the Office for National Statistics. 

The CEBR projects the UK will remain the world’s sixth-largest economy by 2039, but its short-term outlook remains weak.

Labour’s tax policies, including a £25 billion increase in National Insurance contributions, have drawn criticism for potentially slowing economic recovery.

Despite these challenges, the UK’s performance may outpace European peers like Germany and France over the next 15 years.

The CEBR expects Germany’s economy to shrink relative to the UK’s, with the gap narrowing from 31% to 20% by 2039.

Similarly, the UK is predicted to be 25% larger than France by the same year.

The Labour government has also focused on stimulating growth through planning reforms and public investment.

Initiatives to increase housebuilding and modernize infrastructure aim to tackle long-standing structural inefficiencies within the UK economy.

Security and defense: a common priority

Defense cooperation is central to the reset. Europe’s security landscape has changed dramatically over the past couple of years.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, supported by nations like Iran and North Korea.

For both the UK and EU, strengthening military partnerships is essential.

The UK remains one of Europe’s few military powers capable of significant international deployment. This makes it a vital partner for EU-led security initiatives. 

Starmer’s attendance at the February summit signals the UK’s willingness to contribute to collective defense efforts, especially as NATO’s future appears uncertain.

The role of regulatory reform

Labour is also targeting regulatory hurdles to boost economic growth.

The government has asked regulators like Ofgem, Ofwat, and the FCA for reform proposals by January.

These reforms aim to create a “pro-growth” environment while respecting the independence of regulatory bodies.

Starmer has criticized excessive bureaucracy, calling it a barrier to investment.

In a speech to international investors, he pledged to remove outdated regulations that hinder economic activity.

However, critics argue that some rules viewed as obstacles are necessary for market stability.

Public opinion and freedom of movement

Polling suggests that citizens in both the UK and EU are more enthusiastic about strengthening ties than their governments.

A recent YouGov and Datapraxis poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations revealed that 50% of UK respondents see closer engagement with the EU as the best way to boost the economy, and 68% favor reintroducing freedom of movement in exchange for access to the single market.

Similarly, majorities in Germany and Poland support offering the UK special access to the single market to deepen security cooperation.

While the Labour government insists it will not return to free movement or the single market, sectoral agreements offer a middle ground.

For example, youth mobility schemes could allow 18-30-year-olds to work or study across the Channel.

The UK might accept this in exchange for practical gains, such as mutual recognition of professional qualifications or easier mobility for UK entertainers and artists.

Additionally, fishing rights negotiations could also serve as bargaining chips, tied to securing economic benefits like streamlined food trade agreements.

Why is a UK-EU reset important?

The UK-EU reset brings both opportunities and risks with it.

On one hand, closer ties could help both sides address shared challenges, from trade barriers to geopolitical instability.

Improved cooperation might also benefit the UK’s economic recovery and bolster the EU’s global influence.

On the other hand, there are limits to how far either side is willing to compromise.

The UK is unlikely to rejoin the single market or customs union, while the EU may be hesitant to grant significant concessions on trade or migration.

Labour’s push for an EU “reset” is closely tied to its domestic agenda.

Delivering economic growth, managing migration, and improving public services all depend, to varying degrees, on the success of these negotiations.

However, Labour faces political risks at home, including skepticism from Brexit supporters who may view any concessions to the EU as a betrayal. 

Labour’s task here is difficult as it needs to frame any compromises as wins for British interests while also avoiding backlash from voters resistant to perceived EU influence.

Action over rhetoric

Despite the goodwill on both sides, meaningful progress requires clear priorities and a willingness to compromise.

The EU’s skepticism about the UK’s intentions and the Labour government’s hesitancy to fully articulate trade-offs could stall negotiations.

For the “reset” to succeed, both sides must move beyond symbolic gestures to deliver tangible benefits in trade, defence, and energy cooperation.

The post The UK and Europe’s 2025 reset: what’s at stake for their economies? appeared first on Invezz

The USD/INR exchange rate continued its strong uptrend on Monday and is slowly nearing the important resistance point at 86. It has risen for nine consecutive weeks, its longest streak since 2013. So, what next for the Indian rupee in 2025?

Indian economic concerns

The USD/INR exchange rate has soared to a record high as the Indian economy has deteriorated this year.

A recent report by the country’s statistics agency showed that India’s growth in the third quarter stood at 5.8% much lower than the expected 7%. That number means the economy will struggle to hit the predicted 7% growth this year. 

More data shows that India is now reporting substantial trade deficits, which impact the rupee. The most recent data showed that the country’s trade deficit in November surged to over $37.8 billion, higher than the previous year’s $20.6 billion. 

India’s trade deficit jumped as imports soared by 27%, while exports rose by about 5.3% in the same period. Its monthly export figures were their lowest in over two years. 

A rising trade deficit tends to hurt a currency because most of international trade is done in US dollars. 

India is also seeing higher inflation, partly because of the deteriorating rupee. The most recent data by the statistics agency showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 5.8% from the previous month’s 6.21%. These numbers are significantly higher than the year-to-date low of 3.65%.

Therefore, the Indian rupee has crashed as investors anticipate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to start cutting interest rates in the first quarter of 2025. Under Shaktikanta Das, the RBI maintained a highly aggressive monetary policy stance. 

He pushed interest rates to 6.5% and maintained them there during the year as inflation rose. His view differed from that of other emerging market central banks, which started slashing interest rates during the year. 

Das has left the RBI after being replaced by Sanjay Malhotra, who is expected to start easing borrowing costs in the first quarter. The governor may also be inclined to do some forex interventions to boost the currency. In a note, an analyst at HDFC Bank said:

“There’s going to be continued intervention from the RBI to limit the volatile moves, but given the pressure mounting on peers, particularly the Chinese Yuan, the rupee may not see very tight ranges.”

Strong US dollar

The USD/INR pair has also surged due to the strong US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.

The bank slashed interest rates in the last monetary policy meeting in December, bringing the year-to-date cuts to 1%. 

At the same time, the bank pointed to just two cuts in 2025 as officials indirectly warned about inflation under the Donald Trump administration. Some of his policies like on tariffs, lower taxes, and migration will likely lead to high inflation. This explains why the US bond yields have continued soaring this year.

USD/INR technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the USD to INR exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend this year. It has risen and crossed the important resistance level at 85 and the upper side of the rising wedge pattern. The pair has moved above the 50-week moving average, while the MACD,  the Relative Strength Index, and other momentum oscillators have pointed upwards.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key psychological point at 86. As geopolitical risks rise, more gains could see it jump to as high as 90 in the next few months.

The post USD/INR outlook: how low can the plunging Indian rupee get? appeared first on Invezz

Asian Paints share price continued its freefall this year, moving to its lowest level since March 2021. It has crashed by over 32% from its highest level in September this year and 35% from its all-time high. So, is the Asian Paints stock a good investment in 2025?

Why Asian Paints stock has crashed

Asian Paints and other top paint companies have retreated sharply this year. For example, Berger Paints has dropped for five consecutive weeks and is hovering near its lowest level since June 3. Grasim Industries has also fallen for three straight weeks.

Asian Paints stock has crashed as its growth momentum and margins wane. The company’s most recent results showed that its revenue dropped to ₹78.52 billion in the quarter ending June 30th, a big decline from the ₹80 billion it made in the same period last year. 

Asian Paints profitability also continued to wane during the quarter. The profit for the period moved to ₹11 billion from ₹15 billion a year earlier. 

The company’s revenues have declined in a market that is still expected to grow in the next few years. A recent report by CareEdge estimated that the sector would grow by between 8% and 10% as the construction boom continues. 

The challenge, however, is that the industry is becoming highly competitive. Firms like Nippon Paints, Sherwin Williams, Akzo Nobel, and Jotum have established bases in the country, boosting competition. 

Asian Paints has, therefore, been forced to boost its marketing budget, which has narrowed its operating margin. As such, analysts believe that the company will continue being less profitable in the foreseeable future. 

With competition intensifying, the company has also been forced to slash prices to maintain its edge across all its segments. Cutting prices helped the company to see a volume growth of about 7%, which was healthy, but lower than its goal of having double digits. 

The management also blamed the country’s elevated inflation for impacting demand. India’s inflation has forced the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain higher interest rates for longer than in other countries. 

Asian Paints stock is also highly overvalued despite the recent stock plunge. It has a price-to-earnings ratio of 47, higher than the industry average od 42. These are huge numbers considering that Sherwin Wiliams, the biggest player in the sector has a multiple of 34. Its multiples are also higher than other tech firms like Google and Microsoft.

On the positive side, Asian Paints’ business is still doing fairly well despite the new challenges, meaning that an uptick is still possible in 2025. The stock may rebound if the company demonstrates that it can handle the competition well.

Asian Paints share price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the Asian Paints stock price has been in a strong freefall in the past few weeks. It has dropped in the past 16 consecutive weeks, its longest streak on record. 

The stock dropped below the key support level at ₹2,510, its lowest level in June 2022. It is also about to form a death cross as the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross each other. 

Therefore, the short-term outlook for the stock is bearish, with the next point to watch being ₹2,000. The stock will then bounce back in 2025 when it demonstrates that it can grow profitably during the year.

The post Asian Paints share price has imploded and a death cross is nearing appeared first on Invezz

The Deutsche Bank share price has done well in 2024, rising by over 30% after the company continued doing well. It rose to a high of €17.31 on December 16, up by over 300% from its lowest point in 2021. 

Deutsche Bank business is thriving

Deutsche Bank has had a strong turnaround in the past few years under Christian Sewing, who became the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) in April 2018. 

Sewing’s tenure started when the company was in trouble, with some analysts predicting its eventual demise. It also came at time when it was experiencing higher CEO turnover. It had Anshu Jain and Jurgen Fitschen as co-CEOs between 2012 and 2015 and John Cryan between 2015 and 2018.

Sewing has changed the bank significantly by simplifying its operations, strengthening its core banking operations, and reducing its reliance on volatile investment banking operations. This, in turn, has made it a more profitable company.

The bank also shrunk its Wall Street ambitions where it faced substantial competition from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan. Its US ambitions were fraught with substantial losses, scandals, and management turmoil at the time. 

The most recent results showed that Deutsche Bank’s business was doing well despite the turmoil in the German economy. Its revenue in the year’s first nine months stood at over €22.9 billion, and the firm expects it to hit €30 billion this year. 

This growth was driven by the investment bank, which helped to offset a decline in the asset management, corporate bank, and private bank. The private bank had over €27 billion in inflows, while its asset management business had €67 billion, bringing the total to €963 billion. 

Deutsche Bank has also become a more profitable. Its pre-provision profit for the first nine months was €7 billion, slightly higher than the €6 billion it made a year earlier. 

Like other big European banks, the company has benefited from higher interest rates in Europe and other countries. It has also implemented structural hedging, which helps it to capture its profitability when rates fall.

Deutsche Bank share price has also done well because of its dividends and share buybacks. It spent €883 million in dividend payments and €675 million in share buybacks in 2023. It has also spent about €3.3 billion in capital distributions this year. 

The company has room to grow its payouts since its CET1 ratio is 13.8%, higher than some European banks. By deploying the excess cash to dividends, it hopes to reduce the ratio to 13% in 2025. 

The biggest risk for the company is the ongoing deterioration of the German economy as the automobile industry continues shrinking. This is notable since the sector supported the company for decades.

Deutsche Bank share price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the Deutsche Bank stock price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few years. This rebound started when the company bottomed at €4 in 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.

The stock has risen above the key resistance level at €13.50, its highest swing in February 2022. It formed a golden cross pattern in September 2023, partially explaining why the momentum continued. 

Deutsche Bank stock has remained above the ascending trendline, which has connected the lowest swings since March last year. 

The stock is also approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at €25, about 50% above the current level.

The post Deutsche Bank share price analysis: chart points to a 50% jump appeared first on Invezz

The S&P 500 index has been in a strong uptrend for a long time. This momentum continued in 2024 as it soared by over 25% in 2024, continuing a trend that started in 2023. So, will the SPX index keep rising, and will bond vigilantes push it to reverse?

AI slowdown could hit the S&P 500 index

The S&P 500 index has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few years, helped mostly by the AI tailwinds in the US. These tailwinds have pushed more investors to invest in companies that are exposed to the industry, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon.

The risk, however, is that the industry could start to slow down in 2025. Indeed, there are signs that the recent huge investments by companies like Microsoft and Amazon are not paying off as expected. While people are using AI products like ChatGPT and Claude, the momentum is slowing. 

These developments may lead to a sharp retreat of companies that benefited from the AI craze, like NVIDIA and Microsoft. 

As such, the stock market will need to find another theme to ride on. Quantum computing has emerged as a key theme after Google made a major breakthrough earlier this month. This trend has pushed all companies with a quantum name much higher in the past few weeks. Still, it is unclear whether the quantum theme will have as bigger impact as AI.

Bond vigilantes are a big risk

The biggest risk to the S&P 500 index in 2025 is the bond market, which could start noticing Washington’s uncontrollable spending. 

Data by the National Debt Clock shows that the US has accumulated over $36.28 billion in debt, which is continuing to grow. 

The US budget deficit is expected to widen substantially under Donald Trump, who has pledged several tax cut proposals. He has also pledged more government spending on mass deportation. Analysts expect that, if his deportation pledge works, it could cost over $300 billion and reduce the tax the IRS collects.

Therefore, there is a risk that the bond vigilantes will show up and affect the stock market. Coined by Ed Yardeni in the 1980s, the term bond vigilantes refer to bond investors who will ultimately force the government to start thinking about uncontrolled spending. 

There are signs that these vigilantes are already here as US bond yields have soared as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates. The ten-year yield rose to 4.615%, up from 3.60% in September. Similarly, the 30-year yield has moved to 4.816%, its highest level since April 22.

The bond market may break the S&P 500 index rally if yields continue soaring because of Trump’s deficits. Besides, the traditional buyers of US debt like China and Japan, are no longer buying, and the Fed has hinted that interest rates will remain higher for longer.

Read more: Here’s one reason why the SPY, QQQ, DIA ETFs may plunge in 2025

S&P 500 index analysis

SPX chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the SPX index has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. This surge means that it has remained above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages.

However, the index has formed a rising wedge chart pattern, where two trendlines converge. There are signs that the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are forming a bearish divergence pattern.

Therefore, the index risks crashing in 2025. The next point to watch is $4,816, the highest point since January 2022. 

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In a devastating turn of events, a Jeju Air flight crashed at Muan International Airport on Sunday, claiming 179 lives and leaving only two survivors.

The tragedy, now the deadliest air accident in South Korea’s history, has spurred the government into action, with acting President Choi Sang-mok ordering an immediate safety inspection of the country’s airline operation systems.

The incident has not only cast a shadow over the nation but also raised urgent questions about aviation safety and accountability.

Addressing a disaster control meeting in Seoul on Monday, Choi expressed deep sorrow over the loss of lives and pledged comprehensive support for the bereaved families.

Declaring a seven-day national mourning period, he emphasized the need for stringent safety measures to prevent such catastrophes in the future.

“The government will spare no effort in supporting the victims and ensuring this tragedy is not repeated,” he said.

Jeju Air crash: what we know so far

The crash occurred shortly after the pilot reported a bird strike and issued a mayday alert.

Joo Jong-wan, the director of the aviation policy division at the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, confirmed the pilot’s distress call but noted that the exact cause of the crash remains under investigation.

At a press briefing on Sunday, Jeju Air’s head of the management support office, Song Kyung-hoon, assured that the airline would extend full support to the victims and their families.

Song revealed that the aircraft was covered by a $1 billion insurance policy.

However, when questioned about the bird strike as a possible cause, Jeju Air CEO Kim E-bae refrained from confirming or denying the reports, stating that the conclusion would depend on the official investigation.

“Currently, the exact cause of the accident has yet to be determined. We must wait for the findings from government agencies,” Kim said in a Sunday statement.

He also dismissed allegations of mechanical issues or lapses in safety protocols, asserting,

This crash is not related to maintenance. There can be absolutely no compromise when it comes to maintaining aircraft.

Meanwhile, concerns about Jeju Air’s operational safety escalated further when another flight reportedly returned to Gimpo International Airport on Monday due to issues with the landing gear.

These incidents have intensified scrutiny of South Korea’s aviation safety standards and highlighted the need for a comprehensive review.

The tragedy has also sent ripples through the financial markets.

Jeju Air stock down 8%

Shares of Jeju Air plunged to an all-time low on Monday, dropping 8.53% as investors reacted to the grim developments.

Stocks of other Korean airlines experienced significant volatility, reflecting widespread apprehension.

The crash comes at a politically sensitive time for South Korea.

Acting President Choi is the second individual to hold the position in less than a month, following the impeachment of his predecessor Han Duck-soon.

The political turmoil adds another layer of complexity to the nation’s response to the tragedy.

As the country mourns the victims, the focus now shifts to ensuring justice for the affected families and implementing robust safety measures to restore public confidence in South Korea’s aviation industry.

This incident serves as a somber reminder of the critical need for unwavering vigilance in airline operations.

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