Author

admin

Browsing

The Vietnamese Agriculture Ministry announced on Tuesday that domestic companies plan to sign memorandums of understanding with US partners to purchase $2 billion in American agricultural goods, according to a Reuters report

This initiative is aimed at advancing a new trade agreement between Vietnam and the US.

US President Donald Trump’s administration had imposed substantial “reciprocal” tariffs on Vietnam, reaching a significant 46%. 

This measure has introduced considerable uncertainty into Vietnam’s economic outlook. 

While these tariffs are currently suspended until July, their potential activation presents a serious threat to Vietnam’s established growth model

This model is heavily dependent on exports, particularly to the US, which remains Vietnam’s primary and most crucial export market. 

The reimplementation of these tariffs could severely disrupt trade flows and negatively impact Vietnam‘s economic performance. 

The situation highlights the vulnerability of export-oriented economies to shifts in international trade policies and the potential consequences of trade disputes between major economic powers. 

New deals

During a recent diplomatic visit to the United States, a high-powered Vietnamese delegation, consisting of 50 prominent companies and spearheaded by agriculture minister Do Duc Duy, solidified several new trade agreements aimed at bolstering economic ties between the two nations. 

A key highlight of this visit was the signing of five Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs). 

These MoUs specifically pertain to the procurement of agricultural products from the state of Iowa. 

As per the directives outlined in these agreements, Vietnam has committed to purchasing a substantial $800 million worth of goods from Iowa over the span of the next three years. 

The visit itself served as a platform for Vietnamese businesses to engage directly with their American counterparts, fostering collaboration and paving the way for future cooperation across various sectors.

According to the report, memoranda of understanding with Iowa encompass acquisitions of corn, wheat, dried distillers grains, and soybean meal.

Trade deficit

Recent discussions between Vietnam and the Trump administration have centered on establishing a mutually agreeable trade framework, driven by the substantial trade imbalance favoring Vietnam.  

As part of these ongoing negotiations, Vietnam has committed to increasing its intake of goods originating from the US. 

This pledge is a direct response to the persistent and widening trade gap that has become a key point of contention. 

The scale of this deficit is notable; in the preceding year, the US recorded a staggering trade shortfall of $123 billion in its economic exchanges with Vietnam. 

Other measures

This deficit underscores the urgency and importance of finding a balanced solution through these trade talks, aiming to ensure a more equitable flow of goods between the two nations.

Last year, Vietnam imported $3.4 billion in agricultural goods from the US, while exporting $13.68 billion worth of its own agricultural products to America, according to the Vietnam News Agency.

Vietnam has committed to purchasing additional American goods, such as Boeing aircraft and liquefied natural gas. 

Moreover, following US allegations of Vietnam being a significant center for counterfeit goods and digital piracy, the nation has vowed to take action against these illegal operations.

The post Vietnam firms to sign $2B deal for US agricultural products appeared first on Invezz

The KOSPI Composite Index has embarked on a strong rally in the past few months as South Korean shares surged. The index, which tracks the biggest South Korean companies, rose to KRW 2,720, its highest point since August 26, and 18% above the lowest point this year. 

Interest rate cuts have driven South Korean stocks

South Korean stocks have jumped this year even as some of the biggest companies are exposed to the United States, where Donald Trump has applied substantial tariffs. Some of the most exposed companies are giants like Hyundai, Samsung, and LG.

One reason for the rally is that investors believe that the two countries will reach an agreement later this year. South Korea was one of the first countries to reach out to the Trump administration for a deal.

South Korean stocks have also soared as the political environment has cooled a bit in the past few months. Political temperatures rose a few months ago after the then-president declared a state of emergency

Further, the South Korean central bank has been more dovish in the past few months. It slashed interest rates last week by 0.25% to 2.75%, down from last year’s high of 3.50%. It has been slashed five times since last year. 

Interest rate cuts boost the stock market by lowering the country’s bond yields. Data shows that the ten-year yield has been in a downward trend in the past few months. It was trading at 2.80%, down from the year-to-date high of 3.08%. The 30-year yield has also dropped to 2.67% from the year-to-date high of 2.85%.

It has slashed interest rates because analysts anticipate that the South Korean economy will continue slowing. The risk, however, is that inflation has remained stubbornly high in the past few months. Recent data shows that the headline CPI remained at 2.1% in April, up from 1.3% earlier this year.

Read more: Trump’s tariff hikes cause steel stocks to fall across Asia

Most KOSPI companies hitting 52-week highs

The KOSPI Index remains significantly below the highest point in 2024 even as more companies are hitting their 52-week highs. Data shows that more companies in the index are hitting the highs today more than at any point in the past few years. 

Over 90 firms have moved to this high, and many more could join the group in the coming weeks. This rally underscores that investors believe that smaller companies will do better in the future. Samsung, the biggest South Korean company, now accounts for 16% of the index, down from 20% earlier this year.

The best-performing companies in the KOSPI Index are the likes of Hyundai Rotem, MNC Solution, Hanwha, HD Hyundai Energy Solutions, and Hyundai Engineering, have all surged by over 100% this year.

KOSPI Composite Index analysis

KOSPI chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the KOSPI Composite Index bottomed at KRW 2,285 in April and then rebounded to KRW 2,720 in May. It has already crossed the important resistance point at KRW 2,680, its highest point on February 1. 

Moving above that level meant that investors had prevailed. The index has also formed a golden cross pattern, which happens when the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross each other. 

It has jumped above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, a sign that bulls are in control. Therefore, the index will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at $2,800, up by 3.8% above the current level. A move below the 50% retracement level will invalidate the bullish outlook.

The post Here’s why South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index is soaring appeared first on Invezz

Shaun Maguire, partner at Sequoia Capital, has expressed resounding confidence in SpaceX, calling it a once-in-a-generation company that is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in aerospace.

In a recent conversation with CNBC, Maguire reflected on Sequoia’s high-conviction investment in Elon Musk’s space venture and emphasized its transformative impact on the future of space exploration and satellite technology.

“SpaceX is one of the most important companies in the world,” Maguire said during the interview, highlighting the company’s breakthroughs in rocket reusability, satellite internet, and deep space ambitions.

He noted that SpaceX had surpassed what many in the industry thought achievable within such a short span of time.

For Maguire, the company’s innovation isn’t just about launching rockets – it’s about democratizing access to space and building critical infrastructure for the 21st century.

Sequoia invested in SpaceX in 2020, a time when public sentiment was mixed and some investors were still skeptical about the viability of Musk’s grand visions.

Maguire, however, was convinced. “I believed SpaceX was fundamentally underpriced, underappreciated, and misunderstood,” he said, pointing to the company’s rapid advancements in Starlink and Starship as validation of that belief.

Even today, Maguire believes the company may still be undervalued.

Despite SpaceX’s technological dominance and growing global relevance, he suggested that market assessments might not fully capture the scale of its long-term potential.

“People still don’t grasp how foundational SpaceX will be to the future global economy,” he added.

SpaceX’s speed and ambition is ‘unmatched’

Maguire emphasized that SpaceX’s role extends far beyond the private sector, functioning as a critical piece of national and global infrastructure.

The Starlink satellite network, for instance, has provided secure internet to remote and conflict-affected regions, including parts of Ukraine during wartime disruptions.

This has highlighted the strategic utility of private space infrastructure in geopolitical and humanitarian contexts.

He also praised SpaceX’s ability to iterate quickly and learn from failure – an approach rarely seen in the traditional aerospace sector.

“Most governments take decades to achieve what SpaceX can now do in a few years,” Maguire said, calling the company’s speed and ambition “unmatched”.

SpaceX dubbed a strategic asset for US

Maguire also touched on Elon Musk’s role in shaping SpaceX into what it is today.

While Musk’s polarizing personality often draws headlines, Maguire was quick to defend the entrepreneur’s unconventional style, framing it as a necessary byproduct of building companies that challenge the status quo.

“Elon is one of the most important people alive today,” Maguire stated, acknowledging that while Musk is controversial, his willingness to take enormous personal and financial risks is rare – and often misunderstood.

In SpaceX’s case, that willingness has translated into technological milestones that even governments have struggled to achieve.

Maguire also emphasized that Musk’s leadership has helped SpaceX become not just a successful company, but a strategic asset to the United States and the global space economy.

With the Starlink satellite constellation now offering high-speed internet to underserved regions and Starship aiming to revolutionize interplanetary transport, SpaceX’s ambitions have begun to shift from speculative to foundational.

In Maguire’s view, SpaceX represents not just an extraordinary return on investment but a long-term bet on humanity’s future.

“We’re going to look back on this in 50 years and realize this was a pivotal moment,” he concluded.

The post Why experts say SpaceX is one of the world’s most important companies appeared first on Invezz

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the AI boom will charge ahead at full throttle in the back half of 2025.

Trump tariffs and their potential impact on the global economy have sparked concerns of a potential artificial intelligence slowdown in recent months.

However, Ives remains convinced that tariffs will fail at stopping the AI-driven, “once in a generation Industrial Revolution.”

The senior Wedbush analyst now expects the semiconductor market to be worth up to $2.4 trillion by 2040.

A bunch of AI stocks are particularly well-positioned to capitalise on the exploding use cases, launch of new LLMs, and rising enterprise consumption, Ives told clients in his latest research note.

Two names other than Nvidia he recommends owning to play the artificial intelligence revolution are Baidu Inc (NASDAQ: BIDU) and Snowflake Inc (NYSE: SNOW).

Why is Wedbush bullish on Baidu shares?

Wedbush counts Baidu among the top consumer internet names that offer ample exposure to continued momentum in the artificial intelligence market.

Dan Ives remains positive on Baidu stock despite the recently escalating trade tensions between the US and China since “its comprehensive platform offers a robust foundation to develop and deploy these solutions to drive growth and cut costs.”

Note that Baidu rolled out two new AI models in March – one of which it claimed rivals DeepSeek in terms of reasoning capabilities.

Additionally, Baidu shares are currently down some 20% versus their YTD high.

Their valuation metrics also indicates it’s a name worth owning for exposure to the AI trade in 2025.

Other Wall Street analysts agree with Dan Ives’ constructive view on Baidu shares as well, given the consensus rating on the China-based name currently sits at “overweight”.

Why does Ives recommend owning Snowflake stock?

According to Wedbush Securities, Snowflake is another high-quality name that’s worth owning to benefit from continued momentum in the global AI market.

Dan Ives sees SNOW as strongly positioned to build its AI pipeline and enable access to its state-of-the-art tech solutions to countless organizations across several industries.

Note that Snowflake has already started providing “easy-to-use GenAI solutions through Cortex which leverages best-in-class models with fully managed infrastructure” that formed the basis of Ives’ positive view on the cloud stock.

Last week, the NYSE listed firm raised current-quarter guidance for product revenue, citing rising enterprise demand.

Snowflake now expects products revenue to fall between $1.035 billion and $1.040 billion in Q2 – well ahead of its previous outlook for $1.021 billion.

Other Wall Street shops agree with Wedbush’s bullish view on SNOW shares as well. Consensus rating on Snowflake stock currently sits at “overweight”.

Analysts have an average price target of about $221 on the AI stock that represents potential for another 10% gain from current levels.

The post Wedbush reveals best AI stock picks for the second half of 2025 appeared first on Invezz

Bitcoin (BTC) maintained its position above the $105,000 mark as the Asian business week commenced, demonstrating relative stability over the weekend with minimal price movement and compressed trading volumes.

While the broader market sentiment remains bullish, a new report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests certain metrics are indicating the Bitcoin market might be “overheating,” potentially signaling a near-term consolidation phase.

The world’s largest digital asset exhibited a calm weekend, with price fluctuations limited to around 0.4%.

However, beneath this surface stability, CryptoQuant’s analysis points to some underlying pressures.

The report reveals that Bitcoin demand has surged significantly, reaching 229,000 BTC over the past 30 days.

This figure is rapidly approaching the December 2024 peak demand of 279,000 BTC.

Concurrently, balances held by “whales” – large Bitcoin holders – have increased by 2.8 percent.

Historically, such a pace of accumulation by whales can often signal a slowing down of their buying activity, potentially preceding a market cool-off.

These indicators, taken together, suggest that the current rally, which recently propelled Bitcoin prices to a record high of $112,000, may be approaching a short-term peak.

The CryptoQuant report identifies $120,000 as the next major resistance level for Bitcoin.

This level is tied to the upper band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, a metric indicating a point where unrealized profits for traders would hit 40 percent – a threshold that has historically coincided with local market tops.

Despite these cautionary signals, CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index” remains robust at 80, indicating continued underlying bullish momentum.

Nevertheless, the combination of rising profit margins for existing holders and peaking demand growth suggests that traders might face a period of price consolidation before Bitcoin can embark on its next significant upward move.

Arthur Hayes’ audacious prediction: $250K Bitcoin by year-end?

Adding a highly bullish counterpoint to the near-term caution, Bitcoin billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecasted a dramatic surge in Bitcoin’s price.

Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will more than double within the next six months, potentially reaching an astonishing $250,000.

He attributes this optimistic outlook to an anticipated shift in US President Donald Trump’s fiscal policies, moving away from market-rattling tariffs towards more stimulative measures.

“Midterm elections are coming up in the US,” Hayes told Decrypt during an interview at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

While the Trump administration went hard on tariffs and was taking this market pain for the last three months, that narrative has to shift.

Hayes, known for his bold market predictions, argued that instead of pursuing trade policies that could dampen economic growth and potentially impact American consumers’ affordability, the president will need to demonstrate that he has “brought goodies for the population.”

This, Hayes believes, will be crucial to bolstering Republican prospects at the ballot box in the 2026 midterm elections.

The mechanism for this, according to Hayes, will involve a more accommodative monetary stance.

“They’re going to accelerate the money printing,” Hayes stated, referring to the Federal Reserve – the independent US government agency primarily responsible for managing the nation’s money supply.

Such a scenario, involving increased liquidity, is often seen by crypto proponents as highly bullish for assets like Bitcoin, which are perceived as hedges against currency debasement.

The post Bitcoin stays over $105K; ‘overheating’ concerns emerge, Hayes forecasts major surge appeared first on Invezz

European stock markets commenced the trading week on a weaker footing Monday, retreating from recent gains as fresh tariff pronouncements from US President Donald Trump threatened to reignite global trade tensions.

The cautious sentiment permeated most sectors, with particular pressure on steel and automotive stocks, while investors also looked ahead to a pivotal interest rate decision from the European Central Bank later in the week.

The continent-wide STOXX 600 index was down 0.2% as of 0708 GMT, reflecting a broad-based pullback after a period of positive performance that saw the benchmark round off monthly gains in May.

The catalyst for Monday’s downturn was President Trump’s statement late on Friday, in which he announced plans to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to a hefty 50%, up from the previous 25%.

This move immediately drew a response from the European Union, which stated it was prepared to retaliate, setting the stage for a potential escalation in trade disputes.

The impact of these renewed tariff threats was felt acutely in specific sectors.

European steel companies experienced a decline, with industry giant ArcelorMittal falling 1% and German conglomerate Thyssenkrupp dropping 1.1%.

The automotive sector, highly sensitive to import duties, also came under pressure, with the (.SXAP) index down 1.2%.

Auto stocks overall fell 1.4% amid fears that this latest development in the Trump tariff saga could lead to more stringent tariffs on vehicles, particularly following the US president’s unexpected announcement of the steel duty hike.

Risk-sensitive technology stocks also retreated, dropping 1%.

Corporate developments and market safe havens

Amidst the broader market unease, French pharmaceutical group Sanofi announced a significant acquisition.

The company agreed to buy US-based Blueprint Medicines Corporation, paying $129 per share, which represents an equity value of approximately $9.1 billion. Shares in Sanofi were slightly lower following the announcement.

As investors navigated the trade uncertainties, traditional safe-haven assets saw increased appeal.

Spot gold prices were up by around 1.5% ahead of the stock market open, trading at $3,337 an ounce – its highest level in a week.

This demand for gold may reflect investor concerns that President Trump could take even more aggressive tariff actions against specific countries and sectors, compounded by the escalating conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Central Bank spotlight: ECB decision and key speeches awaited

Looking ahead, the major focus for the week will be the European Central Bank (ECB), which is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday.

Market participants will be keenly awaiting any signals from the ECB regarding its monetary policy stance in light of the evolving economic and trade landscape.

Adding to the week’s significance, comments from both Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are anticipated.

These speeches will be closely scrutinized for insights into the central bankers’ views on inflation, growth, and potential policy responses.

A slew of economic data releases from the European trade bloc is also expected throughout the week, which will provide further context for market direction.

The post Europe markets open: STOXX 600 dips 0.2% on renewed US tariff threats; auto sectors under pressure appeared first on Invezz

Social media platform X, under the ownership of Elon Musk, is introducing a new messaging feature dubbed ‘XChat’, which Musk claims will incorporate “Bitcoin-style encryption.”

This development, alongside a forthcoming payments feature called X Money, signals X’s continued ambition to evolve into an “everything app,” though Musk’s specific technical claims about encryption have drawn swift reactions and clarifications from the Bitcoin community.

XChat is being positioned as a significantly more feature-rich iteration of the platform’s existing direct messaging function.

According to a June 1 X post by Musk, the new service will boast audio and video calling capabilities, “encryption, vanishing messages, and the ability to send any kind of file.”

Musk further elaborated that XChat is built on the Rust programming language, which he stated had “(Bitcoin style) encryption, whole new architecture.”

This announcement follows a statement from X on May 29, indicating a temporary pause on its encrypted messaging feature to implement improvements, a move that may have been linked to the development and imminent release of XChat.

Crypto community reacts: debating ‘Bitcoin-style encryption’

Musk’s assertion regarding XChat’s ‘Bitcoin-style encryption’ immediately spurred a flurry of responses from prominent figures within the Bitcoin community.

Many were quick to point out the technical nuances of Bitcoin’s security model.

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, for instance, stated that “Bitcoin isn’t encrypted” in the traditional sense of data obfuscation.

Crypto influencer “Pledditor” added a clarifying detail, noting that Bitcoin “uses elliptic curve cryptography.”

Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr also weighed in, asserting that “Bitcoin doesn’t even use encryption” for its core transaction data and further expressed an opinion that using the Rust programming language was “a bad idea for security reasons.”

Offering a potential interpretation of Musk’s comment, BitMEX Research suggested,

“Maybe Musk means like BIP-151 peer-to-peer communication encryption,” referring to a specific Bitcoin Improvement Proposal designed to encrypt communication data between Bitcoin nodes, rather than the transaction data on the blockchain itself.

It’s important to understand that Bitcoin’s security primarily relies on elliptic curve cryptography, which functions like a sophisticated mathematical lock system.

Users possess a secret private key and a corresponding public key that is mathematically derived from it.

This system allows holders to prove ownership of their Bitcoin and authorize transactions without ever revealing their private key, ensuring security without the need for a central authority.

Bitcoin also utilizes SHA-256 hashing for validating transactions and creating unique block and transaction identifiers.

X money payments feature on the horizon

In addition to the XChat rollout, Elon Musk confirmed on May 25 that X is also developing a payments feature named ‘X Money’.

This service is slated to launch in a beta version later this year. Musk emphasized a cautious approach to its introduction, stating that testing will involve a “very limited access beta at first”.

He added, “when people’s savings are involved, extreme care must be taken,” highlighting the sensitivity and responsibility associated with financial services.

These new offerings underscore X’s ongoing transformation since Musk’s acquisition of the platform (then known as Twitter) in October 2022.

Musk has long articulated his vision of turning X into an “everything app,” akin to platforms like WeChat, by integrating a wide array of features and services that extend beyond typical social media functionalities.

The introduction of XChat and the forthcoming X Money suggests X is now actively positioning itself to compete with established encrypted messaging platforms such as Telegram and Signal, while also setting its sights on popular fintech applications like Venmo and Cash App.

The post ‘Bitcoin-style encryption’ for XChat? Musk’s claim sparks debate appeared first on Invezz

A decade ago, a trio of nimble fintech upstarts — Starling, Monzo, and Revolut — charged into the British banking scene with bold ambitions.

Their mission: to reimagine financial services through cutting-edge technology, superior customer experience, and sleek mobile interfaces.

Early success was meteoric. Customer bases swelled. Market share climbed. The three neobanks captured the imagination of investors and users alike, riding a wave of digital-first enthusiasm that promised to disrupt centuries-old banking norms.

Yet now, their paths are splitting.

Revolut and Monzo are enjoying record growth. Starling, once hailed as a poster child of British fintech, finds itself grappling with a brutal financial and reputational reckoning.

Starling’s stumble amid regulatory woes

Starling’s annual results revealed a sharp decline in profitability, with post-tax profit falling to £223 million in 2024 from £301 million the previous year.

The drop was driven by surging operating costs, which climbed to £403 million from £332 million, dwarfing its modest revenue increase of £32 million to £714 million.

The firm’s slide came to a head after the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) handed it a £29 million penalty for serious failings in its financial crime controls.

Between September 2021 and November 2022, Starling opened over 54,000 accounts for 49,000 “high-risk” customers without keeping up with necessary compliance processes.

“The measures in place to tackle financial crime did not keep pace with the growth of the bank,” said the FCA, describing the failings as “shockingly lax”.

Starling was also forced to absorb potential losses from loans issued under the government’s Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS), setting aside a £28.2 million provision.

The loans, designed to support small businesses during the pandemic, failed to meet the criteria necessary for the government’s guarantee.

Rather than seek taxpayer reimbursement, Starling removed the guarantee and shouldered the risk.

David Sproul, chair of Starling’s board, said the company had “resolved some important legacy matters” but acknowledged the weight of the issues faced over the past year.

Internal unrest and fading momentum

Starling’s internal turbulence has not been confined to its balance sheet.

The company has faced staff unrest following new chief executive Raman Bhatia’s directive requiring workers to return to offices at least ten days a month — despite reportedly lacking the space to accommodate them.

The policy, which came after Bhatia took over in 2024, led to a wave of staff departures.

Meanwhile, the customer growth that once defined Starling’s rise has slowed. The number of accounts rose by just 10% to 4.6 million — half the rate of the previous year.

In contrast, Monzo’s customer numbers surged 31% to 9.7 million in 2024, with deposits climbing 88% to £11.2 billion.

An annual report is expected soon, but the neobank is already drawing attention for another reason: a planned £6 billion listing on the London Stock Exchange, marking one of the UK’s most anticipated IPOs of the year.

Revolut hits profitability milestone

Revolut, once the most controversial of the trio, has emerged as the biggest winner in recent months.

The company not only surpassed 50 million customers globally but also posted more than £1 billion in profit this year — a staggering milestone for a firm that has long battled regulatory delays and governance questions.

The achievement puts it ahead of even HSBC in terms of customer numbers, highlighting the dramatic shifts underway in the banking landscape.

Revolut’s international expansion, aggressive product launches, and diversified revenue streams have helped it defy many of the scaling challenges plaguing rivals.

Can Starling’s Engine restart growth?

Faced with these challenges, Starling is now betting on Engine, its software-as-a-service (SaaS) subsidiary, to turn the tide.

Although Engine contributed just £8.7 million to group income in the last financial year, this represented a 284% jump.

The firm has now set its sights on the United States, with Bhatia describing North America as a “huge opportunity” and targeting revenues of £100 million in the medium term.

John Cronin, founder of Seapoint Insights, questioned whether Engine alone could save Starling’s wider business model.

“Starling has no choice but to move up the risk curve – and this isn’t something we learned today or yesterday either,” she said in a City AM report.

“Its limited scale and consequent lack of operating leverage, high risk weights (standardised credit risk modelling) and relatively higher deposit funding costs mean it just cannot compete with mainstream banks. But that cuts to the heart of the business model – what competitive advantages does Starling have?”

Starling’s service quality still highly ranked

Despite the divergence in performance, the popularity of digital-only banks continues to climb, and Starling, along with Monzo, was ranked highest for overdraft services in an independent survey, while First Direct rounded out the top five in all categories.

The survey conducted as part of regulatory obligations also placed Chase, Starling, and Monzo in the top three for overall service quality, ahead of legacy players like Lloyds, Barclays, HSBC, and Santander.

According to research from Finder.com published by The Sun in March, 40% of UK adults now have a digital-only bank account — up from 36% in 2024 and 24% in 2023.

A further 17% of respondents who don’t yet have one said they intend to open an account, including 7% within the next year.

Trustpilot scores show high levels of satisfaction among users, with Starling, Monzo, Revolut, and JPMorgan’s Chase all earning over 4 out of 5 stars.

Mobile app ratings across iOS and Android average over 4.8 stars.

The post UK’s digital banks face divergent fortunes: Starling stumbles, Monzo and Revolut soars appeared first on Invezz

The EUR/USD exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its interest rate decision and as the US publishes its nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. It was trading at 1.1371 on Monday, 1.6% below the highest point this year.

ECB decision and US NFP data ahead

The EUR/USD exchange rate is slowly becoming a carry trade opportunity among investors as the spread between the US and European interest rates widens.

Federal Reserve minutes released last week showed that officials are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Most officials believe that patience is key to observing the impact of tariffs on US inflation. 

Polymarket traders now believe that the first interest rate cut will come in September, followed by another one in December. 

The ECB has taken a different approach as it has become one of the most dovish central banks in the developed world.

It has slashed interest rates seven times, and analysts anticipate that it will deliver another 0.25% cut this week, bringing the official cash rate to 2%. Many other analysts believe that the bank will deliver another 0.25% cut later this year, bringing rates effectively to 1.75%.

The ECB is cutting interest rates because the European economy is slowing due to Donald Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, analysts believe that European inflation has moved to the 2% target.

The average consensus is that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved from 2.2% in April to 2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy items, is expected to move from 2.7% to 2.5%. 

EUR to USD as a carry trade opportunity

The implication of all this is that the EUR/USD pair has slowly evolved into a carry trade opportunity. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow money from a low-interest-rate country and invest in a high-interest-rate country. 

In this case, European interest rates are expected to fall to 1.75%, while the US ones remain at 4.50%, giving it a spread of 2.75%. Therefore, this carry trade scenario may help to boost the struggling US dollar. 

The EUR/USD exchange rate will also react to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.

Economists expect the data to show that the economy created over 130k jobs in May, down from 177k a month earlier. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, while the participation rate and wages are expected to remain intact. 

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. This happened after the pair bottomed at 1.01820 in January as the US dollar index surged

The pair has moved above the important resistance level at 1.1205, the highest swing in September last year and the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern. A C&H is one of the most bullish patterns in technical analysis.

This cup has a depth of 9.15%. Measuring that distance from the cup’s upper side brings the EUR/USD forecast to 1.2220. For this to happen, it will need to move above the important resistance level at 1.1564, the highest point this year. Doing that will invalidate the double-top pattern whose neckline is at 1.1065. 

The post EUR/USD forecast: carry trade emerges ahead of ECB rate cut appeared first on Invezz

China’s manufacturing PMI improved somewhat in May due to the resumption and frontloading of shipments to the US amid the 90-day tariff truce which will end in mid-August, Commerzbank AG said. 

May saw an increase in the official manufacturing PMI to 49.5, up from April’s reading of 49.0, official data showed.

In May, the production subindex rebounded to 50.7, exceeding the neutral 50 threshold after registering 49.8 in April.

Source: Commerzbank Research

Tensions rise despite truce

New export orders saw improvement, increasing to 47.5 in May from April’s 44.7.

Similarly, overall new orders experienced a rise, reaching 49.8 compared to the previous 49.2.

“However, the subindex still remained in contraction territory, reflecting weakness in overall domestic and external demand,” Tommy Wu, senior economist at Commerzbank, said in a report.

Exports should be supported by the tariff truce with the US for the 90-day period till mid-August. However, the two sides have been accusing each other of violating the truce agreement.

Despite the tariff truce, US-China tensions are rising in other sectors.

The Trump administration implemented several measures targeting China.

These included revoking some Chinese student visas, limiting chip design software sales, and attempting to hinder global sales of AI chips from a major Chinese technology company.

Recent comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicate that trade discussions between the two nations are currently in a state of slight standstill. 

He noted the possibility of tariffs increasing once more in August should negotiations fail to advance.

Services activity lacklustre

China’s non-manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion mode at 50.3 in May, slightly lower than April’s 50.4, according to official figures.

The construction PMI saw a slight decrease, moving from a previous value of 51.9 to 51, but it still held steady within the subindexes.

Government investment in infrastructure contributed to this support.

Driven by increased holiday spending during the Labour Day holiday in early May, the Services PMI saw a slight increase to 50.2, up from the previous reading of 50.1, Wu noted.

“Nevertheless, such readings suggest domestic demand has remained rather soft despite this year’s policy focus to support consumption,” Wu said.

Policy strength may depend on future tariffs

Tariffs and declining exports are expected to significantly slow China’s economic growth in the latter half of this year and into 2026, according to Commerzbank. 

Increased export costs from tariffs will likely reduce international demand and export volumes, negatively impacting the manufacturing sector and potentially employment. 

Lower export earnings will affect China’s trade surplus and may decrease investment in export-oriented industries. 

This combined effect is projected to moderate overall economic growth, potentially impacting domestic consumption and requiring government policy intervention.

To bolster the economy, China’s government will persist in executing the policies established during the National People’s Congress annual meetings held in March.

Beijing has indicated its readiness to implement further measures as necessary. 

Wu said:

We think this will depend on the future path of the tariffs.

The post China’s manufacturing PMI edges up despite ongoing trade tensions appeared first on Invezz