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Nifty 50 index has crashed, but technicals point to a surge soon

The Nifty 50 index has moved into a correction after crashing by 13% from its highest level this year. It has dropped from the year-to-date high of ₹26,265 to the current ₹22,730. It is hovering near its lowest level since June 3. So, is it safe to buy the Nifty 50 index dip or just sell the rip?

US reciprocal tariffs to hit India the most

The Nifty 50 index has dropped in the past few weeks as investors focus on the actions of Donald Trump.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on goods from top US trading partners like Mexico, Canada, and China.

He has also implemented tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Further, he has said that he will impose reciprocal tariffs in April.

Analysts expect that India will be one of the most affected countries when these tariffs kick in because of its high tariffs on imports.

Tariffs on Indian goods would have a big impact on some Nifty 50 index companies that do a lot of business in the United States.

India sells goods worth billions of dollars to the US annually. Some of these goods are in the textile, petroleum, electrical and electronic products, and pharmaceuticals. Some of the top companies that will be affected are Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, and Sun Pharmaceutical.

Narendra Modi has worked behind the scenes to please Donald Trump and prevent the country from being included in the reciprocal tariffs. He was one of the first foreign leaders to visit the US after Trump’s inauguration. Also, he pledged to boost the trade volume between the two countries to $500 billion a year.

Still, it is unclear whether these measures will help to prevent tariffs from the United States. Trump has long believed that other countries, including India, were taking advantage of the US.

Indian stocks valuation reset

The Nifty 50 index has also slipped as Indian companies go through a valuation reset. At its peak, the index had a PE ratio of over 25, making it more expensive than other global indices like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 index.

The price-to-earnings multiple has now moderated slightly to about 20, meaning that it has now become a bargain compared to other indices.

The valuation of most Indian companies became stretched in 2024 as retail investors pumped these equities. Today, some of the top pumped equities, like Trent and Ola Electric have plunged from their highest levels this year.

The Nifty 50 index has retreated as the Indian rupee has jumped. The USD/INR exchange rate has dropped from the year-to-date high of 88 to 86.7. A stronger rupee hurts some companies, especially those that focus on exports.

The next key catalyst of the Nikkei index will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Historically, the actions of the Fed tend to have an impact on US and other global stocks.

Nifty 50 index analysis

Nify 50 index chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the Nifty 50 index has pulled back from the 2024 high of ₹26,315 to a low of ₹21,988. It formed a descending channel that connects the highest and lowest swings since December last year.

On the positive side, the index has formed a falling wedge pattern, a popular bullish sign in the market.

The index has also formed a slanted bullish flag chart pattern, a popular bullish sign. Also, it has found support at the 100-week moving average, where it failed to move below.

Therefore, the Nifty 50 index will likely bounce back in the coming weeks. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at ₹26,315, the highest swing in December last year.

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Pi Network price prediction: is it safe to buy the Pi coin dip?

Pi Network price has crashed this month as demand and hype surrounding the coin eases. After soaring to an all-time high of $3 last month, it has dropped by over 60% to the current $1.1630. So, what next for the Pi coin in the next few years, and will it become a viable Bitcoin rival?

Why Pi Network price has crashed

Pi Network is a cryptocurrency project that has been around in the last seven years. It was in its development phase for the most part of this period. In it, over 60 million pioneers actively mined it, with the goal of converting their winnings into fiat currencies like the US dollar. 

Pi Network launched its mainnet in February, making it possible for pioneers to sell their tokens. As was widely expected, the Pi coin fell immediately after being listed in several exchanges like OKX and MEXC. This crash happened as these pioneers sold their tokens. 

Pi Network price then bounced back immediately after that and reached an all-time high of $. This rebound happened as the hype surrounding the Pi coin jumped. 

Recently, however, Pi coin has crashed, and is now hovering near its lowest level since February 22. 

There are a few reasons why the value of Pi has crashed in the past few weeks. First, the hype surrounding the token has waned, pushing more holders to sell their tokens.

Second, the much-anticipated Binance listing has not happened yet. Binance ran a poll on whether it should list the Pi Network. While most users voted in favor of listing, the company is yet to confirm when it will happen.

Read more: Pi Network price prediction 2025 – 2030 after the mainnet launch

Third, there are concerns about the future dilution of the Pi Network token. Data by CoinMarketCap shows that Pi Network has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, and a circulating one of 6.8 billion. This means that the network will unlock over 93 billion tokens over time. 

Some of these tokens or about 1.4 billion tokens, will be unlocked this year, and billions more in the next few years. Unless Pi Network introduces a burn mechanism, there are chances that the supply will become more than demand, which will affect the price. 

Potential catalysts for Pi coin

There are a few catalysts that may help to push Pi coin price higher in the long term. First, there are rising recession odds in the US as Donald Trump implements large tariffs on imported goods from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico. A recession would be a good thing for cryptocurrencies like the Pi Network because it will lead to interest rate cuts. 

Second, Pi Network has become a large cryptocurrency valued at over $12 billion. It is also one of the most actively traded coins in the market. As such, it is just a matter of time before major companies like Coinbase, UpBit, and Binance list it. They will list it to benefit from the fees that it is generating for other exchanges. 

Third, Pi Network is a made-in-USA coin with a valuation of over $12 billion. It is also a proof-of-work token that has higher volumes than other coins like Litecoin, Hedera Hashgraph, Sui, and Polkadot, which have received ETF applications. This means that there are odds that one or more companies will apply for a spot Pi ETF, a move that would lead to more demand. 

Pi Coin price analysis

PI chart by TradingView

Technicals suggest that the Pi Network price has more downside to go. It has dropped below the 50-period and 25-period moving averages, a sign that bears are in control for now.

Pi Network has also moved below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since February 25. This price was the lower side of the head and shoulders chart pattern, a popular bearish continuation sign. 

Therefore, the short-term outlook for the Pi coin prIce is bearish, with the next target to watch being at $0.61, the lowest swing on February 25. In the long-term, however, the Pi Network price will likely bounce back and retest the resistance at $5 as the catalysts above happen.

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Business

XRP price has key catalysts: here’s why Ripple may crash 50%

XRP price has lost the momentum it had late last year. Ripple has remained in a wide range between the crucial support at $2 and the resistance point at $3.40 this year. It is not moving in a well-defined trend and has formed the risky head and shoulders chart pattern. This article looks at some of the top catalysts that may affect the XRP price in the near term.

Ripple vs. SEC case

The first major catalyst that may push the XRP price higher is a potential settlement between Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

This settlement stems from a case that started in 2020 when the SEC accused Ripple Labs of crimes stemming from it 2013 token sale. The agency sought a $2 billion fine from the company.

In a ruling, a judge said that XRP was not a security, which was a positive thing for Ripple Labs. The judge, however, noted that the capital raise from investors was illegal and fined the company $250 million, which the SEC appealed.

Therefore, there are signs that the SEC, under Donald Trump, will end the lawsuit. Besides, it has already ended lawsuits against other large players in the crypto industry, like Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, OpenSea, and Uniswap.

The end of this case would be a good thing for XRP price because it would let Ripple Labs do deals with other financial services companies like banks and money transfer firms. Many of these firms have been afraid of dealing with Ripple because of its baggage. 

Ripple is aiming to be a viable SWIFT rival

The end of the suit would also help the company achieve its goal of being a viable rival to SWIFT, the society that connects banks globally. SWIFT’s messaging platform handles over $150 trillion a day.

Ripple sees an opportunity to create a unique system that handles payments either directly or using the XRP token.

Banks will likely prefer Ripple because it is a faster payment method, does not require cash movement, and is cheaper. A Ripple transaction costs less than $5, while SWIFT costs over $50, depending on the amount.

XRP ETF odds

The other catalyst for the XRP ETF is that the odds of a spot ETF approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have risen in the past few months.

Polymarket data shows that participants have an 80% chance of the approval of funds by companies like Grayscale, Canary, and WisdomTree.

An XRP ETF would be a good thing for its price because it would lead to more demand from institutional investors. JPMorgan estimates that these funds would attract over $8 billion in inflows.

Macro factors and Ripple prices

Other macro factors may affect the XRP price. The most notable one is the potential recession in the United States. A recession would be a good thing for XRP price and other crypto coins because of the impact on the Federal Reserve. 

Historically, the Fed reacted to these risks by cutting interest rates. For example, it slashed interest rates during the pandemic leading to higher crypto and stock prices.

XRP price forecast

XRP chart by TradingView

All the above are positive catalysts for the Ripple price. However, there is a risk that they have all been priced in by market participants. 

The other risk is that the XRP price has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. Its head is at $3.4, while the right and left shoulders are at $3. The neckline has moved to $1.9.

Therefore, a move below the neckline at $1.9 would likely lead to more downside, potentially to the psychological point at $1, which is about 55% below the current level. 

The post XRP price has key catalysts: here’s why Ripple may crash 50% appeared first on Invezz

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Stocks

Nikkei 225 index outlook ahead of BoJ and Fed decisions

The Nikkei 225 index has risen modestly in the past few days as investors have moved back to the stock market. It initially bottomed at ¥35,960 last week, and has rebounded to over ¥38,000. This article explores why the Nikkei index is rising and what to expect ahead of the Fed and BoJ interest rate decisions.

Warren Buffett buys more Japan stocks

One of the top reasons why the Nikkei 225 index has risen is that Warren Buffett has remained bullish on Japan stocks.

He has done that by being one of the biggest investors in the five trading houses that dominate the Japanese economy.

These companies are Marubeni, Itochu, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo. He initially invested in these companies during the pandemic and has grown to become their biggest investor.

Warren Buffett believes that these trading houses are highly undervalued and that their business will continue doing well in the longer term. This explains why he recently bought more of these companies even as he dumped some of US companies like Apple and Bank of America.

Bank of Japan interest rate decision ahead

The Nikkei 225 index will be the upcoming BoJ interest rate decision that will happen on Wednesday.

Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged as it observes the impacts of Donald Trump’s tariffs on the US.

However, there are signs that the BoJ will embrace a more hawkish tone now that inflation has jumped to 4% in the past few months.

Indeed, the bond market point to further rate hikes in the future. The 10-year yield of Japanese bonds has jumped to 1.5%, higher than last year’s low of 0.728%. Similarly, the 30-year and 5-year yields have soared in the past few months.

Rising bond yields is a sign that investors anticipate that the BoJ will deliver more hikes in the future as it combats rising inflation.

The Nikkei 225 index normally falls when the Japanese yen is falling because it pushes more investors from stocks to bonds.

FOMC decision ahead

The other key catalyst for the Nikkei 225 index will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled on Wednesday this week.

The bank is not expected to cut or hike interest rates this week. Nonetheless, officials will likely mention the tariff risk and explain what to expect later this year. Analysts anticipate more rate cuts later this year as US recession odds rise.

A hawkish Fed will likely be a bad thing for the Nikkei 225 and other global stocks. Historically, these indices thrive when the Fed is either cutting rates or when it signals that it will deliver more cuts ahead.

Some analysts anticipate that the BoJ will point to more cuts later this year because of the ongoing recession risks in the US.

Nikkei 225 index analysis

Nikkei 225 index chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei index has moved sideways in the past few years. It has remained inside the key support and resistance levels at ¥37,790 and ¥40,000.

The index made a bearish breakout below the support last week and bottomed at ¥35,960. It has now rebounded and moved inside the channel.

The Nikkei 225 index remains below the 50-day moving average, meaning that it is still at risk of more downside. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be at ¥35,960. More gains will be confirmed if the Nikkei index rises above the 50-day MA and the upper side of the channel at ¥40,000.

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Nifty 50 index has crashed, but technicals point to a surge soon

The Nifty 50 index has moved into a correction after crashing by 13% from its highest level this year. It has dropped from the year-to-date high of ₹26,265 to the current ₹22,730. It is hovering near its lowest level since June 3. So, is it safe to buy the Nifty 50 index dip or just sell the rip?

US reciprocal tariffs to hit India the most

The Nifty 50 index has dropped in the past few weeks as investors focus on the actions of Donald Trump.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on goods from top US trading partners like Mexico, Canada, and China.

He has also implemented tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Further, he has said that he will impose reciprocal tariffs in April.

Analysts expect that India will be one of the most affected countries when these tariffs kick in because of its high tariffs on imports.

Tariffs on Indian goods would have a big impact on some Nifty 50 index companies that do a lot of business in the United States.

India sells goods worth billions of dollars to the US annually. Some of these goods are in the textile, petroleum, electrical and electronic products, and pharmaceuticals. Some of the top companies that will be affected are Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, and Sun Pharmaceutical.

Narendra Modi has worked behind the scenes to please Donald Trump and prevent the country from being included in the reciprocal tariffs. He was one of the first foreign leaders to visit the US after Trump’s inauguration. Also, he pledged to boost the trade volume between the two countries to $500 billion a year.

Still, it is unclear whether these measures will help to prevent tariffs from the United States. Trump has long believed that other countries, including India, were taking advantage of the US.

Indian stocks valuation reset

The Nifty 50 index has also slipped as Indian companies go through a valuation reset. At its peak, the index had a PE ratio of over 25, making it more expensive than other global indices like the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 index.

The price-to-earnings multiple has now moderated slightly to about 20, meaning that it has now become a bargain compared to other indices.

The valuation of most Indian companies became stretched in 2024 as retail investors pumped these equities. Today, some of the top pumped equities, like Trent and Ola Electric have plunged from their highest levels this year.

The Nifty 50 index has retreated as the Indian rupee has jumped. The USD/INR exchange rate has dropped from the year-to-date high of 88 to 86.7. A stronger rupee hurts some companies, especially those that focus on exports.

The next key catalyst of the Nikkei index will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Historically, the actions of the Fed tend to have an impact on US and other global stocks.

Nifty 50 index analysis

Nify 50 index chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the Nifty 50 index has pulled back from the 2024 high of ₹26,315 to a low of ₹21,988. It formed a descending channel that connects the highest and lowest swings since December last year.

On the positive side, the index has formed a falling wedge pattern, a popular bullish sign in the market.

The index has also formed a slanted bullish flag chart pattern, a popular bullish sign. Also, it has found support at the 100-week moving average, where it failed to move below.

Therefore, the Nifty 50 index will likely bounce back in the coming weeks. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at ₹26,315, the highest swing in December last year.

The post Nifty 50 index has crashed, but technicals point to a surge soon appeared first on Invezz

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Stocks

Asian markets surge on Tuesday: Nikkei up 1.46%, Hang Seng jumps 1.8%

Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Tuesday, following positive cues from Wall Street overnight.

Traders continued to pick up stocks at reduced levels after recent weakness but remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors are looking for signals in the accompanying statement and projections regarding the outlook for rates.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are also set to announce their monetary policy decisions later in the week.

Japan’s Nikkei rises sharply

Japanese stocks are surging on Tuesday, extending their upward momentum from the last two sessions, as the Nikkei 225 moves well above the 37,900 level.

Gains are seen across most sectors, with financials and technology stocks leading the rally.

The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index closed the morning session at 37,943.23, up 546.71 points, or 1.46%, after touching an intraday high of 38,004.20.

The advance follows a strong finish on Monday.

Among major stocks, SoftBank Group is up nearly 1%, while Fast Retailing, the owner of Uniqlo, is adding 1.5%.

Automakers are also performing well, with Honda gaining over 2% and Toyota advancing nearly 3%.

Hong Kong, China stocks jump on trade optimism

Hong Kong stocks climbed for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes that a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could ease trade tensions between the two largest economies.

Gains in US-listed Chinese technology stocks overnight also contributed to the upbeat sentiment.

The Hang Seng Index advanced 1.8% to 24,578.14, building on the 0.8% gain from Monday.

The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a sharper rise, climbing 2.4%.

On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index added 0.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1%.

Technology stocks led the rally, mirroring strong performances in US markets.

Baidu surged 9.2% to HK$100.50, while Alibaba gained 5.4 % to HK$142.80. Kuaishou Technology rose 4.6 % to HK$66.40, and electric vehicle maker BYD added 3.7 %.

Investor optimism grew after Trump indicated that Xi would visit Washington in the “not too distant future.”

Reports suggest the leaders may meet as early as April to discuss trade, fueling hopes of a potential resolution to ongoing tensions.

Other Asian markets

The Australian stock market is trading modestly higher, adding to gains from the previous two sessions.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is holding well above the 7,850 level.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index is up 17.80 points, or 0.23 %, at 7,871.90, after reaching a high of 7,922.90 earlier in the session.

The broader All Ordinaries Index is also up 0.22 % at 8,099.90.

Seoul shares opened higher on Tuesday, tracking gains from Wall Street, as foreign investors showed strong interest in tech stocks.

The benchmark Kospi rose 20.45 points, or 0.78%, to 2,631.14 in the first 15 minutes of trading.

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Baidu shares surge 10.7% on Tuesday: here’s why

Baidu’s shares surged 10.7% in Asian trading on Tuesday following the release of two new artificial intelligence models over the weekend.

The Chinese tech giant introduced the latest version of its foundational “Ernie” model alongside a new reasoning model designed to rival DeepSeek’s R1.

The market response indicates growing confidence in Baidu’s AI capabilities as it seeks to re-establish itself as a dominant player in China’s fast-evolving AI sector.

The company has been facing stiff competition from rivals like Alibaba and Bytedance, as well as the unexpected rise of DeepSeek, which disrupted the AI landscape with its cost-efficient R1 model in January.

Baidu’s decision to open-source its latest models signals a strategic shift aimed at regaining market leadership, but whether it can match DeepSeek’s momentum remains to be seen.

Baidu takes on DeepSeek

Baidu claims its ERNIE X1 reasoning model delivers performance on par with DeepSeek R1 at only half the price.

This positioning directly challenges DeepSeek, whose R1 model has drawn praise for achieving competitive results at a fraction of the cost and with less advanced hardware.

While the cost-effectiveness of AI models is a critical factor in adoption, pricing in China’s AI market remains fluid, making it difficult to determine whether Baidu’s approach will gain traction.

DeepSeek’s rapid rise earlier this year reshaped the AI competitive landscape in China, overshadowing Baidu’s previous AI advancements.

Despite being among the first to launch a ChatGPT-like chatbot with its Ernie Bot, Baidu found itself trailing behind newer players with more aggressive market strategies.

The release of these new models is seen as an effort to reclaim lost ground and position itself as a leading AI provider for enterprises needing advanced computing solutions.

Open-source strategy shift

Baidu’s decision to open-source its latest models marks a departure from its previous proprietary-focused AI strategy.

By making its models freely available, the company aims to establish its technology as an industry standard while strengthening its influence in the AI developer community.

This approach mirrors DeepSeek’s strategy and could help Baidu expand its market share by encouraging broader adoption of its AI technology.

The move also reflects a broader trend in AI, where open-source models are increasingly seen as a way to accelerate innovation and gain competitive advantages.

Companies leveraging open-source strategies can build ecosystems around their technologies, attracting developers and businesses that can customise and implement AI solutions tailored to their needs.

However, the success of this strategy depends on whether Baidu’s models can consistently deliver the promised performance and cost benefits.

Analysts assess Baidu’s AI prospects

According to Morningstar senior equity analyst Kai Wang, Baidu’s stock jump is likely a “delayed reaction” to the AI model releases, as investors reassess its potential in China’s competitive AI space.

He noted that while Baidu has not received the same level of attention as other major cloud computing firms, its AI advancements could drive increased enterprise demand for hosting, scaling, and computing power.

Counterpoint Research principal analyst Wei Sun highlighted that Baidu’s competitiveness now hinges on whether its new models truly deliver on their performance and pricing promises.

While the company’s open-source move is a strategic attempt to establish an AI industry standard, the market remains highly dynamic, with pricing and technological advancements shifting rapidly.

Baidu’s ability to differentiate itself from competitors like DeepSeek, Alibaba, and Bytedance will be crucial in determining its future AI market position.

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Who is Tracy Morgan? The comedian with a $70 million net worth

During the New York Knicks’ game against the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden on Monday, March 17, 2025, comedian and actor Tracy Morgan experienced a medical incident while seated courtside.

Witnesses reported that Morgan, 56, suddenly became ill, vomiting onto the court and appearing to have a bloody nose. Arena staff and medical personnel quickly responded to assist him.

Morgan, known for his quick wit and larger-than-life personality, has been a staple in comedy for decades.

From his early stand-up days to his breakout roles on Saturday Night Live and 30 Rock, he continues to be one of the most recognizable and celebrated figures in entertainment.

With a career spanning over three decades, his wealth has grown significantly, making him one of the richest comedians in Hollywood.

His net worth, estimated at $70 million in 2025, reflects not only his earnings from acting and stand-up but also his work as a producer, writer, and author.

Morgan’s financial success is underscored by his extensive career in television and film, as well as lucrative deals in the entertainment industry.

Despite facing significant personal and professional challenges, including a near-fatal car accident in 2014, he has continued to work on high-profile projects.

His financial portfolio includes earnings from television shows, films, comedy specials, and book sales, making him one of the wealthiest figures in the comedy world today.

Rise to sitcom fame

Morgan’s career began in the New York comedy circuit before he secured a spot on “Saturday Night Live” in 1996.

He quickly became a fan favourite, thanks to his energetic performances and unforgettable characters.

After leaving “SNL” in 2003, he starred in “30 Rock,” where his portrayal of Tracy Jordan earned him critical acclaim and a Primetime Emmy nomination.

The show, which ran from 2006 to 2013, remains one of the most celebrated sitcoms of the 21st century.

Beyond television, Morgan has appeared in several films, including “The Longest Yard” (2005), “Cop Out” (2010), and “Death at a Funeral” (2010).

His stand-up career has also been a major source of income, with popular comedy specials such as “Tracy Morgan: Black and Blue” (2011) and “Tracy Morgan: Staying Alive” (2017).

In addition, he authored the memoir “I Am the New Black” in 2009, providing insight into his personal and professional life.

Overcoming adversity, health concerns, and career revival

In 2014, Morgan’s life changed drastically when he was involved in a serious car accident on a New Jersey highway.

The crash, caused by a Walmart truck driver who had reportedly been awake for over 24 hours, resulted in the death of Morgan’s close friend and fellow comedian, James McNair.

Morgan sustained severe injuries, including a traumatic brain injury, broken ribs, and a fractured leg.

He was placed in a medically induced coma for two weeks and underwent months of rehabilitation.

The legal battle that followed ended in a settlement with Walmart in 2015. While the amount was undisclosed, reports speculated that it was as high as $90 million—though Morgan’s lawyer denied this figure.

The financial outcome allowed him to focus on his recovery, and by 2018, he made a return to television with “The Last O.G.,” a comedy series on TBS that he also executive produced.

Ongoing projects

Morgan continues to be an active figure in the entertainment industry.

His latest project, “SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night,” revisits his roots in comedy and explores the evolution of “Saturday Night Live.”

His involvement in television production, combined with earnings from stand-up tours and past investments, ensures that his wealth remains substantial.

With a career built on versatility and resilience, Morgan’s estimated $70 million net worth reflects both his professional achievements and financial acumen.

His ability to adapt and stay relevant in the industry suggests that his fortune could continue to grow in the coming years.

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Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan targets India’s trade surplus and key industries

President Donald Trump’s “America First” trade policy, among the most protectionist in nearly a century, is set to introduce “reciprocal tariffs” from April 2.

The move is aimed at addressing what Trump’s administration describes as an “unfair and unbalanced” global trading system, particularly targeting nations with trade surpluses against the US.

India, which has maintained a strong trade surplus with the US, is expected to face intense pressure under the new policy.

The plan, first outlined in the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” grants the US president authority to impose tariffs on countries that charge higher import duties on American goods than the US does on theirs.

With India’s automotive and agricultural tariffs significantly higher than US rates, these sectors are likely to be primary targets.

The strategy appears designed to force India to open its market to more American exports, particularly in industries where the US is seeking to expand its global footprint.

US seeks to expand auto exports with reciprocal tariffs

One of the main sectors under scrutiny is India’s automotive market, where high import tariffs have long been a sticking point in trade negotiations.

India imposes tariffs exceeding 100% on some categories of vehicles, a policy that the Trump administration sees as a barrier to American auto manufacturers.

The US was the second-largest passenger car producer in 2023 and ranked fifth in global car exports.

However, American companies have struggled to compete with leading exporters from Europe and China.

The reciprocal tariffs plan is seen as a strategy to push India into lowering its automobile import duties, which would create additional demand for US-made vehicles.

Given that India is one of the fastest-growing automotive markets, American automakers stand to benefit significantly if trade barriers are reduced.

Agricultural trade expected to be a key battleground

The US agricultural sector is another likely focal point of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy.

The US remains one of the largest exporters of key agricultural commodities such as maize, wheat, and soybeans.

While American wheat exports have declined in recent years, the US still dominates the maize market and remains the second-largest soybean exporter after Brazil.

India has traditionally maintained high agricultural tariffs to protect its domestic farmers, but this has limited US access to the market.

The Trump administration’s push for reciprocal tariffs suggests it will attempt to force India to lower these trade barriers, making it easier for American agricultural exports to enter the country.

The move could have wide-reaching implications for India’s farming sector, which employs a significant portion of the population and has been resistant to opening up to foreign competition.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals could also face pressure

While agriculture and automobiles have been highlighted as key areas of concern, the reciprocal tariffs policy could extend to other industries where the US has significant trade interests.

Electronics and pharmaceuticals are among the sectors that could come under scrutiny due to the existing tariff differentials between India and the US.

India’s pharmaceutical industry is a crucial global player, particularly in the generic drug market.

Nearly half of all generic medicines consumed in the US originate from India, according to IQVIA.

These medicines saved American consumers an estimated $219 billion in healthcare costs in 2022 alone.

The imposition of reciprocal tariffs could disrupt this supply chain, leading to higher costs for US consumers while also impacting India’s pharmaceutical exports.

Electronics, another sector where India has seen rapid growth, could also face increased tariffs.

The US remains a major exporter of high-tech goods, and Trump’s administration could use reciprocal tariffs as leverage to gain better access to the Indian market.

Reciprocal tariffs could reshape US-India trade relations

The implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs policy is likely to mark a turning point in US-India trade relations.

While the US aims to reduce its trade deficit, the strategy carries risks for both economies.

India may respond with retaliatory measures, potentially affecting American exporters that rely on the Indian market.

Trade wars often result in increased costs for consumers and businesses, and the impact of the reciprocal tariffs will depend on how aggressively they are enforced.

With India’s growing economic importance, the outcome of this policy could shape the future of trade dynamics between the two nations.

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Politics

USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions

The USD/ZAR exchange rate retreated on Monday morning as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. It dropped to a low of 18.20, 5.40% below the highest level this year as focus shifts to the upcoming Fed and South Africa interest rate decision. 

US and South Africa tensions

The US and South Africa are in a bitter feud that may have major implications in the future. The root cause of these issues is a lawsuit that South Africa filed in the ICC against Israel.

In January, Donald Trump accused South Africa of discriminating against the white population after a bill on land issues passed. The bill made it legal for the US to take largely unused land and pay a fair price. 

These tensions escalated during the weekend as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was not welcome to the United States. He called him a “race-baiting politician who hates America and Trump.”

There is a risk that the US will implement some tariffs or sanctions against South Africa. Such a move would disrupt trade volumes worth over $25.5 billion annually.

Fed and SARB interest rate decision

The next key catalyst for the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be the upcoming Federal Reserve and South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decisions. 

Economists expect that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. It will then maintain the view that it will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation moves towards 2%.

The Fed is concerned that Donald Trump is engineering a self-inflicted recession by implementing tariffs. As a result, the Atlanta FedNow data estimates that the US economy will contract by about 2.4% this month. 

The Fed is also concerned about inflation. While last week’s US inflation report was encouraging, it did not include Trump’s tariffs. Analysts anticipate that inflation will reman high as companies adjust for tariffs.

The USD/ZAR exchange rate will also react to the upcoming South Africa interest rates. Recent data showed that the country’s inflation has risen in the past few months. It jumped to 3.2% in January, the highest point since September last year.

The country’s statistics agency will publish the latest inflation data on March 19, and analysts anticipate the figure to come in at 3.4%. 

USD/ZAR technical analysis

USDZAR chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It dropped from a high of 19.218 in February to the current 18.20. This decline happened as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. 

The pair has formed a falling wedge chart pattern, which is characterized by two falling and converging trendlines. These two lines are now nearing their confluence levels. 

The USD/ZAR pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern too. Therefore, there is a likelihood that it will bounce back and possibly hit the key resistance level at 19.21, its highest level this year, which is about 5.6% from the current level.

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