In a significant shakeup at Meta Platforms, Joel Kaplan has been named the new chief global affairs officer, succeeding Nick Clegg.

Kaplan’s promotion comes amidst heightened scrutiny of Meta’s role in shaping public discourse and its contentious relationship with global policymakers.

As a veteran Republican operative and former deputy chief of staff under George W. Bush, Kaplan brings a wealth of political acumen to the role, steering Meta’s global strategy at a time of escalating regulatory pressures and societal demands.

Source: FinacialTimes/X

Joel Kaplan’s journey to Meta’s chief global affairs officer

Joel Kaplan joined Meta in 2011, bringing a robust background in US politics.

His tenure in Washington, particularly under the Bush administration, equipped him with the skills to navigate high-stakes policy debates.

At Meta, Kaplan served as vice president of global public policy, playing a key role in the company’s interactions with governments worldwide.

His leadership style has been both lauded and criticized.

While Kaplan has positioned himself as a proponent of political neutrality, internal documents, and whistleblower revelations have cast doubts on this narrative.

Accusations of favoritism towards conservative agendas, including alleged leniency in content moderation for certain political figures, have sparked controversy within the company.

Kaplan’s actions, such as attending the contentious 2018 Senate hearing for Brett Kavanaugh, further intensified debates about his influence on Meta’s policies.

Kaplan’s elevation to the chief global affairs role underscores Meta’s intent to strengthen its political strategy as it faces increasing challenges.

Governments across the US, EU, and beyond are tightening regulations on big tech companies, focusing on issues ranging from misinformation to data privacy.

With Kaplan as the chief global affairs officer, Meta appears to be doubling down on leveraging his Republican ties and deep understanding of Washington’s inner workings.

This leadership change also comes as Meta seeks to rebuild relationships with the conservative political establishment.

The company’s fraught history with former President Donald Trump, including the controversial decision to ban him from its platforms following the Capitol riots, has strained its standing among conservative leaders.

Kaplan’s appointment could represent a strategic move to mend these ties and position Meta favorably in the political arena, particularly as the US gears up for another election cycle.

Kaplan role in Meta’s global strategy

Kaplan’s role extends beyond the US, with global challenges demanding a nuanced approach.

Meta’s presence in markets like Europe and Asia has been met with regulatory pushback and cultural scrutiny.

From the EU’s strict data protection laws to rising calls for accountability in emerging economies, Kaplan must navigate complex landscapes that require balancing local norms with Meta’s corporate objectives.

Kaplan steps into this role as Meta faces intensifying competition and evolving societal expectations.

The advent of AI, the metaverse, and debates over online content regulation put Meta at a crossroads, demanding leadership that can bridge technology and policy.

Kaplan’s task will be to ensure Meta’s business model aligns with these external demands while maintaining profitability and innovation.

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The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF could have another solid year as Wall Street analysts predicts more gains for gold. GLD, the biggest gold ETF, rose to a record high of $257.93 in October as gold peaked at near $2,800. So, what next for gold and the GLD ETF?

Analysts are still upbeat about gold

Wall Street analysts believe that the price of gold has more upside in 2025 as demand for alternative assets continues rising. 

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the price of gold to surge to $3,000 later this year. Societe Generale, on the other hand, sees it moving to $2,900 this year. Similarly, Bank of America and Citigroup analysts see the metal rising to $3,000.

Conversely, Macquarie sees gold remaining in a tight range this year because of the ongoing strength of the US dollar index. It then expects gold to crawl back and show some modest growth in 2025. 

The main catalyst for gold price will be the ongoing central bank accumulation. Data released in 2024 showed that global banks accumulated over 694 tons of gold in the year’s first nine months. Most of these purchases are coming from China, where the central bank announced that it was resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus. 

US public debt is surging

The other crucial catalyst for gold is that the US and global debt has continued surging. For example, public debt has continued soaring in the United States, moving to over $36.3 trillion, a figure that is continuing. 

Donald Trump campaigned on the need to lower the debt, but most of his policies will add trillions of dollars to the debt pile. For example, deporting millions of illegal aliens will cost the government hundreds of billions of dollars. 

Also, his plans to deliver more tax cuts will worsen the crisis this year. Trump has shifted the debt reduction proposals to Elon Musk, who will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which aims to reduce spending by $2 trillion. 

However, cutting government waste will not be easy, as these cuts will need to pass Congress. Even if the government slashed all discretionary spending, the deficit would continue growing because of soaring defense and social security spending.

Therefore, there are chances that gold price will rise as investors and governments worry about the health of the US dollar as a world reserve.

US dollar index and bond yields

The GLD ETF may have some issues this year because the US dollar index is in a strong uptrend. The index has jumped in the last five consecutive weeks and is sitting at its highest level in over two years. 

Gold is nearing the important resistance level at $110, meaning that it has jumped almost 10% from its lowest point in 2024. The strong dollar often impacts gold, which explains why the GLD ETF has had outflows in the last two consecutive months. It lost $1.1 billion in November and $522 million in December. 

US government bonds have also held steady after the Fed lowered its estimates of the number of interest rate cuts for 2025. It now expects to slash rates two times, instead of the previous guidance of four. The 10-year yield retreated to 4.54%, while the 30-year and 5-year moved to 4.7% and 4.35%, respectively. 

GLD ETF analysis

The GLD ETF has remained in a tight range in the past few weeks as the US dollar index rose. It has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which happened after a strong surge, a sign that it is a bullish pennant pattern. 

The ETF has remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Therefore, the outlook is extremely bullish. The next point to watch is last year’s high of $257, followed by the psychological point at $300 later this year.

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The duty-free shopping haven of Hainan, China’s island province known for its luxury boutiques and pristine beaches, saw a dramatic decline in spending last year, dealing a significant blow to ambitions of transforming the area into a global retail hotspot.

Spending on duty-free goods plunged by 29.3% to 30.94 billion yuan ($4.24 billion), according to local customs data, as domestic visitors dwindled amid a weakened economy.

This sharp downturn raises concerns over the island’s plans to evolve into a duty-free shopping hub by 2025, a strategy intended to bolster China’s consumer economy.

What hit Hainan’s luxury brands

Hainan’s decline in retail spending highlights the challenges facing international luxury brands, including LVMH and Kering, which had banked on post-pandemic growth.

Visitor numbers dropped 15.9% to 5.683 million in 2024, reflecting a broader slowdown in domestic consumption.

Luxury spending in Hainan had previously tripled between 2019 and 2023, spurred by policy changes in 2020 that raised duty-free purchase limits.

This momentum was reversed last year as economic uncertainty weighed on consumer behaviour, with overall retail sales in China growing just 3.0% year-on-year in November—significantly below expectations.

This downturn signals trouble for luxury retailers that rely heavily on affluent Chinese shoppers, who have traditionally opted for international destinations like South Korea’s Jeju Island.

While Hainan’s policy changes initially redirected this spending domestically, the latest data indicates a fading appetite for high-end shopping as economic conditions tighten.

Hainan’s transformation plans at risk

The ambition to transform Hainan into a wholly tax-free shopping zone by 2025 is now under some threat.

The strategy aims to allow brands to operate their own duty-free outlets, reducing dependency on partnerships with local entities like China Duty-Free Group.

The goal is to replicate the success of global duty-free hubs and drive broader consumption in southern China.

The decline in 2024 raises doubts about the island’s ability to attract sustained spending.

Competition from established markets, such as Jeju Island, and fading “revenge spending” following the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed the fragility of Hainan’s consumer-driven growth model.

The reliance on tourism and discretionary spending makes it vulnerable to broader economic fluctuations, complicating efforts to position Hainan as a global retail destination.

China’s consumption under pressure

Hainan’s challenges reflect broader issues in China’s consumer economy.

After a brief post-pandemic spending surge, consumption has slowed, highlighting the need for structural reforms to drive sustained growth.

While top officials have pledged to “vigorously” boost domestic demand in 2025, the lacklustre retail performance in Hainan underscores the uphill battle China faces in revitalising its economy.

For Hainan, reversing the decline will require not only addressing macroeconomic headwinds but also rethinking its reliance on luxury shopping as the cornerstone of its strategy.

Efforts to attract a broader demographic and diversify retail offerings may be necessary to ensure the island’s long-term success as a consumption-driven economic engine.

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The human metapneumovirus (HMPV), a respiratory virus often compared to COVID-19 due to its symptoms and transmission methods, is currently spreading across Asia, raising significant health concerns.

The virus, which primarily affects children but can infect individuals of all ages, has seen a surge in cases, particularly in northern China, prompting strict monitoring across the region.

Alarming rise in HMPV virus cases

Northern China has been identified as the epicenter of this outbreak, with the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) confirming the region as the worst affected.

Reports of overcrowded hospitals and strained healthcare systems underscore the virus’s impact, though no state of emergency has been declared by either Chinese authorities or the World Health Organization (WHO).

Neighboring regions, including Hong Kong and Japan, have also implemented stringent monitoring measures.

While Hong Kong has reported minimal cases, Japan recently experienced a severe influenza outbreak alongside concerns about HMPV.

According to local media, Japan recorded over 94,000 flu cases in a single week, adding to the strain on its healthcare infrastructure.

What is the HMPV virus?

HMPV belongs to the Pneumoviridae family and was first identified in 2001 by Dutch researchers.

Serological studies indicate that the virus has existed for at least six decades and is a common cause of respiratory infections worldwide.

The symptoms of HMPV include cough, fever, nasal congestion, and shortness of breath. In severe cases, it can lead to bronchitis or pneumonia, particularly among young children, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals.

Despite being known for over 20 years, there is currently no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for HMPV.

Management of the infection focuses on symptom relief and preventing complications.

Health authorities across Asia are urging adherence to preventive measures to limit the virus’s spread.

HMPV spreads through respiratory droplets from coughing and sneezing, direct personal contact, or touching contaminated surfaces.

Preventive measures include:

• Washing hands frequently with soap and water.
• Avoiding close contact with sick individuals.
• Cleaning commonly touched surfaces regularly.
• Wearing masks in crowded or high-risk areas.

HMPV virus vs. COVID-19 comparison

While HMPV and COVID-19 share similarities, such as respiratory symptoms and transmission methods, they differ in seasonal trends.

HMPV typically peaks during winter and spring, whereas COVID-19 can spread year-round due to evolving variants.

Studies suggest that HMPV cases have surged in some regions following the relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, likely due to weakened immunity from prolonged lockdowns.

Individuals experiencing persistent symptoms or those with underlying health conditions should consult a doctor, especially if symptoms worsen or a fever lasts more than three days.

Early medical intervention can help manage severe complications, particularly in high-risk groups.

As the Covid-like HMPV virus continues to spread, public health officials emphasize the importance of preventive practices and awareness.

By staying informed and adhering to recommended guidelines, communities can help mitigate the impact of this respiratory virus.

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China plans to broaden its consumption subsidies to include smartphones and other electronics in a bid to boost domestic spending as external challenges loom.

The country’s trade-in program, originally focussed on home appliances and cars, will, from this year, begin to include personal devices like phones, tablets, smartwatches, etc., officials from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the nation’s top economic planning agency said in a briefing Friday.

The move aligns with the government’s 2025 priorities, which, for only the second time in over a decade, place a significant emphasis on boosting consumption and domestic demand.

Why is China offering smartphone subsidies?

A core part of the program is increasing sales of consumer electronics, a sector that has seen a slowdown as post-COVID consumers hold onto their devices longer due to lackluster product updates and tighter budgets.

The expansion is expected to rejuvenate the world’s largest smartphone market, drive up sales of brands like Huawei Technologies Co. and Xiaomi Corp., as well as boost businesses of e-commerce platforms like Alibaba Group Holding, and JD.com, which are popular among device buyers.

The move is also planned to offset effects of any new US tariffs on Chinese exports which have been a key economic driver for the country.

How will China fund the smartphone subsidies?

The government will “significantly” increase the sale of ultra-long special treasury bonds to fund the program, which also encourages companies to upgrade their equipment, according to Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The central government committed 300 billion yuan ($41.1 billion) from special treasury bonds in mid-2024, supplementing efforts by local governments.

The funds have already contributed to a notable uptick in car and appliance sales since September, bolstering the broader economy.

In addition to personal electronics, the program includes subsidies for upgrading business equipment, with new provisions for agricultural facilities and other sectors.

Yuan Da indicated that specific details on the expanded program would be released soon.

How has China’s trade-in program fared?

According to a report by South China Morning Post published in October, since the trade-in program’s launch, over 8.23 million consumers have purchased 11.78 million major appliances across eight categories, generating more than 55.79 billion yuan in sales.

In the automotive sector, the Ministry of Commerce’s trade-in platform had received over 1.27 million subsidy applications as of October 7, driving new vehicle sales worth more than 160 billion yuan.

Notably, more than 60% of these applications were for new energy vehicles.

Data from the China Automobile Dealers Association further highlights robust growth, with retail passenger-vehicle sales reaching 2.1 million units in September—a 4% year-on-year increase and a 10% rise compared to the previous month.

Historical parallels and forward outlook

China’s latest stimulus mirrors a successful subsidy plan introduced in 2007 to counter the global financial crisis.

That initiative, which covered rural residents’ purchases of home appliances, cars, and computers, boosted domestic consumption until it ended in 2013.

With potential new US tariffs threatening China’s export-driven growth, the government’s focus on domestic demand reflects a proactive approach to economic resilience, signaling its commitment to sustaining consumer spending and industrial upgrades.

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