Cardano price continued its recovery this week, rising for three consecutive days and crossing the important resistance level at $1. The ADA token rose to an intraday high of $1.0135 on Friday, making it one of the best-performing coins in the market. 

Cardano price rises ahead of a big year 

Cardano, the blockchain network established by Charles Hoskinson, is gearing for what will likely be its biggest year. 

The network is preparing to incorporate BitcoinOS into its operations, a move that will give it access to a near $2 trillion market. This integration will happen through its partnership with Emurgo, a firm that supports Web3 adoption through the Cardano network. 

The first part of the deal will see the integration of the BitcoinOS Grail bridge with Cardano’s network. As a result, it will enable trustless bridging of BTC and Bitcoin assets to the Cardano ecosystem. It will make Cardano the first layer 1 network to embrace the technology.

The potential implication of this is that it may help boost the Cardano total value locked (TVL), which has remained small over the years. Cardano has a TVL of less than $500 million, making it smaller than many newer chains like Base and Arbitrum. In a note, Edan Yago, BitcoinOS founder said:

“We are thrilled to reach this milestone with near-trustless BTC in one of the most distributed blockchains in the industry. BOS has consistently accelerated Bitcoin scaling through a full-fledged solution for dApps and L2s using the guarantees of zero-knowledge cryptography.”

This is likely because many large projects, such as Uniswap, Aave, and PancakeSwap, have ignored Cardano’s network. 

Midnight zk mainnet launch

Cardano is also gearing towards the mainnet launch of Midnight, a scaling platform launched by Charles Hoskinson. Midnight will be the first zero-knowledge scaling blockchain for the Cardano ecosystem. Therefore, there is a likelihood that Cardano price will do well ahead of the mainnet launch. 

Further, Hoskinson has pledged to ensure many large-scale collaborations this year. One of the potential collaborations will be with SpaceX, the space company established by Elon Musk. Odds of such collaboration started in November when he posted a picture standing next to a SpaceX rocket. Days before that, he hinted that he was about to make the biggest collaboration.

Most importantly, as one of the biggest projects in the crypto industry, it will likely benefit from the upcoming Trump administration. Hoskinson has previously hinted that he will be part of the crypto council. 

Also, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely approve a spot Cardano ETF later this year. Such a move would lead to more inflows for Cardano as we have seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum. 

ADA price analysis

ADA chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that ADA price has bounced back in the past few days. This recovery started when the coin bottomed at $0.7623 on December 20th and formed a hammer pattern. A hammer comprises a long lower shadow and a small body. 

Cardano has moved above the 50-day moving average and is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also formed a three-white crows pattern, which happens when there are three consecutive bullish candlesticks. 

Additionally, Cardano has completed the formation of a break-and-retest pattern by moving back to $0.8070, the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern. A B&R pattern is a popular continuation sign. 

Therefore, the ADA price will likely continue rising as bulls target the next important resistance at 1.3268, the highest point in 2024, which is about 30% above the current level. 

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The Hungarian forint continued its downward trend this week after losing access to some crucial EU funds. The USD/HUF pair soared to 402.40, its highest swing since November 2022, while the EUR/HUF jumped to 413.

Hungary loses access to EU funds

The Hungarian forint maintained its downward trend after the country lost access to 1 billion euros as the conflict with the European Union escalated,

It lost 1 billion of the 6.3 billion euros that the EU froze because of concerns about its treatment of asylum seekers.

At the same time, Hungary must pay a 200 million euro fine imposed by the European Court of Justice. It is also missing 1 million euros a day from the EU, bringing the total frozen funds to 19 billion euros, a substantial amount for a country with a GDP of $212 billion. 

These events are happening at a time when Hungary is in a deep recession, with the government lacking room to maneuver as the deficit stands at around 4.5%. 

The most recent data showed that Hungary entered a technical recession in the third quarter, contracting by 0.7%. 

Inflation has risen recently, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3.7% in November from 3.2% a month earlier. This was the second consecutive month that inflation increased. 

The Hungarian Central Bank has maintained interest rates stable in the past few months. It left rates unchanged at 6.50% for the fourth consecutive month in the December meeting. Before that, it slashed interest rates from 13% in September last 2023 to fuel the economic recovery. 

The concern now is that Hungary will seek to raise spending in violation of EU rules ahead of a general election in 2026. Another concern is that Orban’s turn to China for help will not work out as Beijing is fighting numerous challenges of its own as its economy slows. 

Additionally, some of the top Hungarian trade partners are not doing well, especially Germany. Recent data showed that Germany has moved into a recession as the automotive sector slowed down substantially.

EUR/HUF technical analysis

The weekly chart shows that the EUR to HUF exchange rate has increased lately. It has moved to 413, close to its highest level since December 2022. 

The pair has retested the upper side of the ascending channel and moved above the 50-day and 25-day moving averages. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the EUR/HUF pair is bullish. The next point to watch is 420. Later this year, the pair may soar to the 2022 high of 434.

USD/HUF forecast

USD/HUF chart by TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the USD/HUF exchange rate continued rising this week, reaching a high of 402, its highest point since November 7, 2022. It has crossed the crucial resistance point at 400, the highest point in November. 

The pair has moved slightly below the 23.6% retracement level. The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have continued rising this year. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the pair is upwards, with the next crucial level to watch being 420.

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Cryptocurrencies resumed their uptrend on Thursday as many investors returned from the Christmas and New Year holidays. This rebound in the crypto and stock market in the early days of the year is known as the January Effect.

This January Effect is important because of the potential catalysts that may push crypto prices higher. Donald Trump becomes president on January 20th, possibly signing an executive order on crypto. 

Gary Gensler will resign this month and will be replaced by Paul Atkin, who supports cryptocurrencies. FTX distributions worth over $16 billion start, which could help to supercharge the crypto industry since some of this cash will flow to cryptocurrencies. So, let us look at what to expect with DeXe, Ethena (ENA), Stellar Lumens (XLM), Aerodrome Finance (AERO).

DeXe price prediction

The DeXe token price performed well in 2024, moving from a low of $2.6850 in January to over $20 this month. The current rally began after the developers unveiled the next phase of the DeXe protocol.

Some of the top events to watch include the release of the DeXe Protocol on Ethereum, the launch of the DAO Treasury, the introduction of staking, and the launch of DeXe DAO.

The daily chart shows that the DeXe price has been in a strong uptrend in the past few months. This rally culminated in the token rising above the key resistance level at $18.8170, the highest swing on March 29 and the upper side of the cup and handle pattern, 

DEXE has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while momentum indicators point upwards. The token will likely continue rising this year. The next psychological point to watch is $30, both a psychological point and one provided by the C&H pattern. 

Ethena price analysis

ENA price has also rebounded in the past few days after bottoming at $0.8472 in December. This rebound happened as the token found substantial support at the 50-day moving average.

Ethena, like other cryptocurrencies, has formed a cup and handle pattern, with last month’s consolidation being part of the handle section. 

ENA has now moved slightly above the key resistance at $1, and is slowly approaching the weak, stop & reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines. 

Therefore, Ethena price will likely continue rising, with the next price target being the December high of $1.3300, about 28% above the current level. 

Ethena has some important fundamentals such as the continued growth of its stablecoins like USDe and USDtb. 

AERO crypto price analysis

Aerodrome Finance is one of the fastest-growing players in the crypto industry. It is a leading project in the Decentralized Exchange (DEX) industry that handles billions of dollars in volume weekly. It has become the biggest player in the Base blockchain, the layer-2 network launched by Coinbase. 

The daily chart shows that the AERO price peaked at $2.33 in December and then pulled back sharply. This peak was notable because it was also the upper side of the cup and handle pattern. The recent pullback is part of the formation of the handle section. 

Aerodrome Fiance price will likely bounce back as buyers target the next important resistance level at $2.33, which is about 53% above the current level. This view will become invalidated when the coin falls below this month’s low of $1.3110.

Stellar price analysis

The Stellar Lumens price peaked at $0.6376 in November as it jumped by almost 500% during the month. It then pulled back in December as cryptocurrency prices retreated. It then formed a falling wedge chart pattern, a popular bullish sign.

Stellar token has formed a moved above the 50-day moving average. The two lines of the MACD indicator have formed a bullish crossover pattern. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above 50 and points upwards.

Therefore, the coin will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance point at $0.50. A move above that level will point to last year’s high of $0.6375.

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The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) ETF could have another solid year as Wall Street analysts predicts more gains for gold. GLD, the biggest gold ETF, rose to a record high of $257.93 in October as gold peaked at near $2,800. So, what next for gold and the GLD ETF?

Analysts are still upbeat about gold

Wall Street analysts believe that the price of gold has more upside in 2025 as demand for alternative assets continues rising. 

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the price of gold to surge to $3,000 later this year. Societe Generale, on the other hand, sees it moving to $2,900 this year. Similarly, Bank of America and Citigroup analysts see the metal rising to $3,000.

Conversely, Macquarie sees gold remaining in a tight range this year because of the ongoing strength of the US dollar index. It then expects gold to crawl back and show some modest growth in 2025. 

The main catalyst for gold price will be the ongoing central bank accumulation. Data released in 2024 showed that global banks accumulated over 694 tons of gold in the year’s first nine months. Most of these purchases are coming from China, where the central bank announced that it was resuming gold purchases after a six-month hiatus. 

US public debt is surging

The other crucial catalyst for gold is that the US and global debt has continued surging. For example, public debt has continued soaring in the United States, moving to over $36.3 trillion, a figure that is continuing. 

Donald Trump campaigned on the need to lower the debt, but most of his policies will add trillions of dollars to the debt pile. For example, deporting millions of illegal aliens will cost the government hundreds of billions of dollars. 

Also, his plans to deliver more tax cuts will worsen the crisis this year. Trump has shifted the debt reduction proposals to Elon Musk, who will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which aims to reduce spending by $2 trillion. 

However, cutting government waste will not be easy, as these cuts will need to pass Congress. Even if the government slashed all discretionary spending, the deficit would continue growing because of soaring defense and social security spending.

Therefore, there are chances that gold price will rise as investors and governments worry about the health of the US dollar as a world reserve.

US dollar index and bond yields

The GLD ETF may have some issues this year because the US dollar index is in a strong uptrend. The index has jumped in the last five consecutive weeks and is sitting at its highest level in over two years. 

Gold is nearing the important resistance level at $110, meaning that it has jumped almost 10% from its lowest point in 2024. The strong dollar often impacts gold, which explains why the GLD ETF has had outflows in the last two consecutive months. It lost $1.1 billion in November and $522 million in December. 

US government bonds have also held steady after the Fed lowered its estimates of the number of interest rate cuts for 2025. It now expects to slash rates two times, instead of the previous guidance of four. The 10-year yield retreated to 4.54%, while the 30-year and 5-year moved to 4.7% and 4.35%, respectively. 

GLD ETF analysis

The GLD ETF has remained in a tight range in the past few weeks as the US dollar index rose. It has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, which happened after a strong surge, a sign that it is a bullish pennant pattern. 

The ETF has remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Therefore, the outlook is extremely bullish. The next point to watch is last year’s high of $257, followed by the psychological point at $300 later this year.

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The US dollar index (DXY) continued soaring this week as it approached the important resistance point at $110. It is on track for its fifth consecutive week of gains and is nearing the highest level since November 2022. It has jumped by over 9% from its lowest level in 2024.

US dollar index is soaring

The US dollar index is charging, helped by the ongoing robustness of the American economy, which is doing better than most.

Estimates are that the US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, avoiding the much-talked-about recession. Economists expect the economy will grow by 2.5% this year, a move that will make it over 12% bigger than during the pandemic.

The US performance is significantly different from other countries in Asia and Europe. In China, the economy has deteriorated, pushing the central bank to consider cutting interest rates. In a statement to the Financial Times, the central bank said that it would slash rates from 1.5% today later this year. 

The bank will put more emphasis on the role of interest rates adjustments, moving away from quantitative objectives. 

Europe is not doing well, either. Economists expect that Europe’s economy either remained stagnant in 2024 or shrunk slightly last year. What is clear, though, is that the German economy has not grown in the last few years. 

Several large companies that support the German economy are in trouble and have been forced to slash workers. For example, BASF, the biggest chemical company in the world, made big layoffs and expanded in China. 

Volkswagen considered shutting down three plants in Germany in 2024. The company has reached a deal to maintain those locations for now as it finds other ways to slash over $4 billion in annual costs. 

France is also not doing well as economies in key countries affect some of its top exports. For example, China’s weakness has reduced demand of its luxury products like LVMH and Gucci. 

The same trend is happening in the UK, where growth has been sluggish in the past few years. 

Central bank divergences

Therefore, the US dollar index has surged as investors anticipate a potential divergence between the Federal Reserve and other central banks. 

The Fed has already hinted that it will deliver just two interest rate cuts this year, down from the previous guidance of four. 

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to push rates to near zero this year in a bid to lower access to capital. The Bank of England, which has been more conservative, is also expected to be more aggressive this year.

The actions of the ECB and the BoE are important because the euro and sterling are the biggest part of the US dollar index. Indeed, the EUR/USD pair has crashed to 1.0275 as it risks moving down to parity. The GBP/USD pair has fallen to 1.2400.

Other currencies in the DXY index like the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and Swedish krona have also plunged hard this year. 

DXY index analysis

The weekly chart shows that the US dollar index continued its strong uptrend this week. It has now rallied for five consecutive weeks and crossed the important resistance point at 107.23.

The index has moved above the important resistance level at 108.65, the highest swing on October 2 and the neckline of the double-bottom at $100. It has also jumped above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.

The DXY index has remained above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. Therefore, the greenback will likely continue soaring as investors target the 2022 high of $114.65, about 5.13% above the current level.

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