In January 2025, the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), reported a 2.65% rise in Colombia’s Economic Follow-up Index (ISE).

According to local media outlet La Republica, these results mark the seventh successive month of expansion though it is lower than December 2024.

The growth path highlights the success of the public sector which would have become as of 2024, a key engine of the economy.

Sectors with high performance

ISE numbers reflect mixed performance by activity sector. The first sector, including agriculture, cattle, hunting, forestry and fishing, fell by 0.1%.

The slump highlights even deeper problems in the industry, which has shrunk in four of the last twelve months.

Secondary activities, on the other hand, grew marginally by 0.5%, with the manufacturing and construction industries leading the way at 0.5%.

This expansion increased the ISE by 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the industrial landscape is continuing to improve.

The tertiary sector had the most encouraging results, with a healthy 3.9% growth rate. The recovery in public administration services was especially noticeable, with a significant 6.2% gain, adding considerably to the entire economy by 1.3 percentage points, making it the most impacting sector among the nine analyzed.

Expert perspectives on economic trends

César Pabón, Director of Economic Research at Corficolombiana, praised the year’s encouraging start, adding, “Despite the uncertainty, economic activity had a good beginning, propelled by commerce, services, and industry, which moved past two years of contraction.

“However, it is still early to celebrate, and maintaining this momentum will require confidence and certainty. Housing remains a declining sector, generating concerns about medium-term prospects.”, said the expert to La Republica.

Even with these optimistic numbers, analysts have mixed feelings.

They cite underlying problems in some sectors that could act as a brake on continued growth.

As an illustration, the housing market still struggles, which might restrict its recovery in addition to broader economic resilience.

Commerce and real estate: a key driver

The performance of the commerce sector, in particular, was also a strong driver, with a 5.2% variation and 1.1 percentage points to the composition of the economy, another special highlight of the ISE report.

It indicates a good recovery in consumer spending and market activities, which means that consumers are gradually becoming confident again.

Real estate operations also did well, rising by 1.8% and contributing 0.2 percentage points to the ISE.

The performance of these industries points to a potential turning point in Colombia’s economy, as real estate is frequently a leading predictor of broader economic trends.

Forecast and future outlook

According to Luis Fernando Mejía, the Director of Fedesarrollo, there is a cautiously optimistic outlook, stating that the economy in January grew 2.6%, above market estimates for the first trimester (2.3%).

“This goes in line with our 2025 forecast of 2.6%”, he added.

Although this expansion is welcome news, analysts warn that a fuller plan for restoration is necessary to tackle the fundamental economic threats.

The latest stats, however, present a mixed image of recuperation as Colombia negotiates multiple global and internal economic challenges.

These challenges include the recent resignation of Colombia’s Finance Minister who left office on Tuesday after clashes with President Gustavo Petro over budgetary cuts and after lawmakers rejected the labour reform.

This situation is going to require interchange among sectors and the impact of government policy to drive the economy forward.

Stakeholders are on the lookout for discernible trends, as they may be the sign that the early pocket of momentum witnessed in January can translate into months ahead.

In summary, while Colombia’s economy has started the year on a bright note, considerable obstacles remain.

Continued monitoring and planned actions will be required to maintain economic resilience and performance.

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The Brazilian government said on Wednesday it will keep its 2.3% economic growth forecast for the year.

Meanwhile, the inflationary projection has been raised marginally to 4.9% this year from 4.8% previously estimated in February.

The adjustments are based on “marginal changes” in the Brazilian economic landscape, as the country attempts to work its way through the difficulties of both local and global marketplace.

As reported by Reuters, the Ministry’s Economic Policy Secretariat provided insights into recent trends, highlighting the link between growth, inflation, and policy, both economically and psychologically.

Brazil economic growth trends

The Secretariat for Economic Policy said in a report that Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, has historically seen its GDP growth slow in the second half of the year.

After a wave of economic activity over the first quarter that significantly raised the bar for the months ahead, this trend follows.

With seasonal changes already eradicated due to the economic structure of the moment, the government has taken a hesitant stand thus far.

Policymakers are keeping a careful eye on these trends, especially as they prepare to tackle the dual problems of sustaining economic growth and managing inflation.

The finance ministry stated that the foundation of Brazil’s economic success is based on recovery measures that have been ongoing since the country experienced economic contractions in prior years.

Brazil Central Bank’s stance on monetary policy

Against this backdrop, Brazil’s central bank is in the middle of an aggressive monetary tightening cycle aimed at tackling rising inflation, which continues to be a top concern.

The central bank is most anticipated to declare its third consecutive 100-basis-point hike in interest rates, increasing them to 14.25%.

This response demonstrates a strong effort to mature the economy, especially in light of anticipated inflationary pressures from global commerce.

According to the government, increased protectionism, particularly from the United States, contributes to inflationary trends since tariffs raise the cost of commodities imported into Brazil.

Despite these problems, the finance ministry remains cautiously optimistic, implying that while external pressures may have an impact on prices, the uncertainties surrounding international trade policy may dampen overall economic activity.

“This effect, however, may be mitigated by the negative impact of greater uncertainty on activity”, says the statement.

Brazil inflation and its effect on sectors

The new inflation estimate takes into account a broader view of the dynamics of the Brazilian economy by sector.

The government has predicted that food prices may peak before the end of the year, which might mean good news for buyers who have been struggling with rising costs.

On the other hand, global supply, chain issues and changing commodity prices, will raise the price tag of industrial goods.

This paradox demonstrates Brazil’s challenges in balancing internal economic growth with external demands.

As the government revises its estimates, it remains acutely cognizant of the impact inflation might have on purchasing power and overall economic stability.

The finance ministry’s statement emphasizes the delicate balance required to manage these tumultuous waters.

Brazil 2026 projections

Alongside the existing forecast, the finance ministry published preliminary trends for 2026, where it expects the economy to grow at 2.5%.

Finally, inflation is expected to drop to 3.5%, which matches the central bank’s long-term targets. Overall these forecasts paint a relatively positive outlook for Brazil, one of a country likely to continue to find stability and growth in the years ahead.

These estimates are part of a broader agenda to achieve long-term desired economic growth while remaining sensitive to the geopolitical global scenario.

The finance ministry’s assessment underlines an intention to strengthen the view of a better economic landscape for Brazil, projecting inflation should be close to the central bank’s 3% target in 2027.

Brazil is currently facing its economic dilemmas, setting tough but achievable targets. The most recent tick-up in inflation indicates careful management of shifting conditions, while the outlook for the country’s economic growth remains unchanged.

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Famed investor Jim Cramer does not agree with the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on continued weakness in US stocks.

Bessent is comfortable with a more than 10% decline in the benchmark S&P 500 index over the past month since corrections are “normal” and healthy”.

However, a former hedge fund manager disagrees with Bessent as typical explanations don’t apply to the ongoing decline in US stock prices.

Why the 2025 market correction isn’t normal or healthy

Cramer sees the correction this year as not related to the new administration’s “transition to a more prudent spending philosophy.”

Instead, the US equities market is grappling with losses due to recession fears – one that are “caused by the President of the United States,” he argued last night on Mad Money.

Cramer attributed the sell-off to “mercurial postings, the scattershot approach to trade policy,” adding “I ask you Mr Secretary, with 35 years of experience, is that normal? Is that healthy?”

More importantly, the former hedge fund manager said the ongoing choppiness is not very likely to subside unless Americans start to get some certainty from the White House.  

The benchmark S&P 500 index currently sits at about 5,600 level versus its high of 6,150 on February 19^th.

Top reasons why an economy crashes into a recession

Typical reasons for market corrections include geopolitical instability, a change in the Fed’s stance, or hyper-optimism leading to overvaluations.

However, the sell-off this year is mostly related to Americans not getting any signs of certainty from the Trump administration, according to Jim Cramer.

Interestingly, the famed investor supports President Trump’s use of tariffs to win better trade deals with other countries, but the rhetoric, he added, has been so erratic that it has sent investors into shock.  

Neither the US Treasury Secretary nor the White House has so far responded to Cramer’s remarks.

Bank stocks are worst to own during a recession

While the former hedge fund manager has accused President Trump of trying to “manufacture” a recession several times in recent weeks, he’s still not convinced that the US economy will see one.

But if the United States does indeed end up in recession in the back half of 2025 as many believe it will, the hardest hit industry will likely be banking, he said in a recent CNBC appearance.

Jim Cramer recommends pulling out of bank stocks if you’re betting on a recession ahead.

Why? Because individuals and businesses refrain from taking loans during economic slowdowns.

Plus, an increase in defaults is typically a feature of a recessionary period as well.

Together, such developments stand in the way of bank stocks attempting to ride north during economic slowdowns.

On the plus side, however, most of them are dividend payers making up for good sources of passive income amidst challenging times.

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US stocks climbed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, as investors assessed the potential economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the central bank’s outlook.

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, in line with expectations, and projected two quarter-point rate cuts later this year.

However, policymakers remained divided on the appropriate course of action, reflecting uncertainty over the economic impact of trade tensions and inflation trends.

The Fed also adjusted its balance sheet strategy, slowing the pace of its drawdown to manage liquidity concerns amid ongoing political debates over the US government’s borrowing limit.

The central bank’s economic projections pointed to slower growth and persistent inflation pressures.

“Given growing worries around tariffs and how they could affect US growth and inflation,” Matthias Scheiber, head of the multi-asset solutions team at Allspring Global Investments in London said the Fed “took a widely expected ‘wait and see’ approach on rates.”

“For 2025, the interest rate market currently expects the Fed will cut rates to around 3.75% by year-end. A lot will depend on how the inflation-versus-growth trade-off develops—growth may continue weakening, and the Fed may need to cut rates more forcefully than expected,” he added.

Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite all gain

Following the Fed’s decision, stocks posted solid gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 228.44 points, or 0.55%, to 41,808.20. The S&P 500 gained 46.76 points, or 0.82%, to 5,660.52, while the Nasdaq Composite added 213.23 points, or 1.18%, closing at 17,715.71.

Investors interpreted the Fed’s guidance as largely in line with expectations, despite lingering concerns about inflation and economic growth.

Traders now see a 62.2% chance of at least a 25-basis point rate cut in June, according to data from LSEG.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined slightly to around 4.28% after hovering at 4.32% before the Fed’s announcement.

Why did the market go up if economic projections were in line with expectations?

Some analysts suggested that fears of a more hawkish Fed had kept markets cautious ahead of the announcement.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, noted, “There is a whiff of stagflation to this. You’re seeing the Fed revising down their estimates for growth and revising up modestly their expectations for inflation.”

Despite the broadly expected policy decision, markets rallied in part due to relief that the Fed did not signal a more aggressive stance on inflation.

“There were whispers of the Fed potentially removing one of the projected cuts due to inflation concerns. Even though the report was as expected, the fact that they didn’t take a more hawkish turn reassured investors,” Roland added.

Silver extends losses

Silver extended its losses, hovering around $33.60 per ounce after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5% while signaling possible rate cuts of 0.5 percentage points by 2025.

Despite economic uncertainty stemming from President Trump’s tariffs and fiscal policies, silver remains close to a five-month high as concerns over trade tensions escalate.

Lease rates have surged due to shrinking stockpiles, particularly in London, as silver shipments shift to the US to take advantage of higher prices.

This trend has widened price disparities across key markets, with spot silver rising 17% this year, outpacing most other commodities.

Meanwhile, physical silver transfers—especially from Canada and Mexico—face increasing pressure from tariffs, tightening supply further. Growing fears of a “silver squeeze” could disrupt trade flows for months to come.

Boeing shares jump

Boeing’s stock price rose 6% on Wednesday following CFO Brian West’s announcement that the company’s cash burn was slowing and production was improving.

West’s optimistic outlook for the struggling company, whose shares fell over 32% last year, provided a positive counterpoint.

He also downplayed immediate concerns related to President Donald Trump’s tariffs but warned that the ultimate impact would depend on the duration of the uncertainty surrounding international trade policy.

“We think we’re off to a good start for the year,” West said at a Bank of America investor conference.

Turkish stock ETF plunges after Erdogan rival’s arrest

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks Turkish stocks experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday following the arrest of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s political opponent, Ekrem Imamoglu.

The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) experienced a significant decline, with shares falling 11.4%. 

This decrease puts the ETF on track for its most substantial loss since December 17, 2021, when it dropped by 14%.

Williams-Sonoma slips

Williams-Sonoma’s stock price fell in morning trading on Wednesday, following the release of their underwhelming guidance for the upcoming year.

At the time of writing, the stock was down 5.9% from the previous close. 

At one point, Williams-Sonoma’s share price fell 11% after the home furnishings retailer forecasted a potential decline in net revenue for the upcoming fiscal year ending in January 2026. 

The company anticipates revenue to either remain flat or decrease by up to 1.5% compared to the previous year, attributing this projection to the fiscal year consisting of 52 weeks rather than the 53 weeks of the prior year.

The company admitted to $49 million in accounting adjustments due to overstated freight expenses in previous years.

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Burger King UK, the main operator of the fast-food chain’s British business, is set to begin discussions with lenders for a major refinancing deal nearly eight years after it was acquired by private equity firm Bridgepoint, according to a report by Sky News.

The company is looking to secure an additional £40 million in borrowing capacity to fund its long-term business strategy, which includes expanding its store network and upgrading existing locations, the report said.

The refinancing effort also involves £110 million of existing debt, with negotiations expected to take place in the coming days.

Investment bank DC Advisory is advising Burger King UK and Bridgepoint on the process.

Bridgepoint has already committed £35 million in fresh equity to support the company’s growth plans.

While the fast-food operator has previously been linked to a potential sale or a stock market listing, sources indicated that Bridgepoint has no immediate plans to exit its investment.

Expansion and sales growth fuel funding needs

Burger King UK, which directly owns over half of the nearly 600 Burger King outlets in Britain, intends to use the refinancing package to accelerate expansion.

The company plans to open more than 30 new restaurants while remodeling 50 existing locations to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

According to sources close to the business, Burger King UK has been outperforming the broader Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) sector in like-for-like sales growth.

The introduction of its Gourmet Kings range has helped boost sales of higher-margin items, appealing to customers willing to spend more on premium fast food.

Meanwhile, its value platform has continued to attract budget-conscious consumers amid ongoing economic pressures.

The company has also leveraged promotional campaigns to drive engagement and sales.

A recent initiative, Whopper Day, saw the chain offer free burgers to customers who downloaded the Burger King app, further increasing brand interaction and digital engagement.

Financial performance remains strong

Burger King UK has demonstrated strong financial performance, with its most recent accounts revealing a return to profitability.

In August last year, the company reported a 30% surge in total revenues to £381.8 million for 2023, compared to the previous year.

CEO Alasdair Murdoch highlighted the company’s continued resilience in a challenging economic environment.

“We have seen a resilient trading performance in the first half of 2024, with total sales growth of 5% split equally between the existing estate and contribution from new site openings,” he said.

With a workforce of approximately 6,000 employees, the company remains committed to expanding its footprint.

Management has indicated that a strong pipeline of new restaurant locations is in place, with further growth expected in the coming years.

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