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The USD/JPY exchange rate continued its downward trend ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The pair retreated to a low of 141.50 on Wednesday morning, its lowest level since January 2nd and by almost 13% from its highest point this year.

Bank of Japan decision

The USD to Japanese yen continued its downward trend after a Bank of Japan (BoJ) official hinted to more interest rate hikes. In a statement, Junko Nakagawa said that conditions in the country would remain easier even if these hikes come.

This statement came as the BoJ prepares to deliver the next interest rate decision on September 20th. This will be a crucial meeting because the bank delivered a surprise 0.25% hike in its last meeting, triggering a shock in the financial market.

In recent statements, officials, including Kazuo Ueda, have hinted to another hike because of the stubbornly high inflation. The most recent economic numbers showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.8% in July, higher than the median estimate of 2.7%. 

The CPI figure was significantly higher than the year-to-date low of 2.2% and the BoJ’s target of 2.0%. Therefore, the rate cuts are meant to help lower inflation, partially by reducing the pace of wage growth and strengthening the Japanese yen.

Still, there are risks to more BoJ rate hikes. First, there are signs that the Japanese economy is not doing all that well. A report released this week showed that the economy expanded by 0.7% in the second quarter after contracting by 0.6% in Q1. This growth translated to an annualised growth rate of 2.9%. 

While these numbers were better than those in the first quarter, they were lower than the expected growth of 0.9% and 3.1%, respectively. The Japanese statistics agency attributed the weakness to weaker external demand, which dropped by 0.1%. 

Private spending and capital expenditure rose by 0.9% and 0.8% in the second quarter, missing the expected growth of 1.0% and 0.9%. 

Still, there are some positives for the Japanese economy. For one, the price of most commodities, including crude oil, has dropped sharply recently. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $69 and $66, respectively.

Japan does well when energy prices are falling because it is one of the biggest importers globally. 

Federal Reserve decision

The USD/JPY pair retreated because there are signs that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates next week. 

Recent economic numbers have shown that the US economy was slowing. Two reports by S&P Global and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed that the manufacturing PMIs remained below the growth phase of 50 in August. A PMI figure of less than 50 is a sign that a sector is contracting.

The other notable report came from ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). According to ADP, the private sector created less than 100k jobs in August. The official NFP Jobs data revealed that the unemployment rate remained above 4.2% as the economy created 141k jobs. 

There are signs that the country’s inflation was falling. The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show that the headline figure softened from 2.9% in July to 2.6% in August while core CPI moved from 3.2% to 3.1%. 

Historically, inflation numbers are important for the Federal Reserve because they form part of the dual-mandate. In this case, however, these numbers will not have a big impact on the USD/JPY pair since the Fed has already hinted that it will cut interest rates in the next meeting. 

Fed rate cuts and BoJ rate hikes will narrow the spread of Japanese and US yields, leading to more concerns about the carry trade. 

A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow in a low-interest rate country to invest in a high-interest rate country. In this case, investors used low rates in Japan to invest in the US, meaning that the reversal has now started to happen. 

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY chart by TradingView

The USD/JPY exchange rate peaked at 161.98 in July and then suffered a harsh reversal after the BoJ rate hike. 

Most importantly, the pair has formed a death cross, where the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have crossed each other. In most cases, this pattern leads to more downside. 

The pair has also dropped below the key support level at 141.75, its lowest swing on August 5, invalidating the double-bottom pattern that has been forming. Also, the MACD has remained below the neutral point while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral point of 50.

Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bearish, with the next point to watch being the psychological point of 140. 

The post USD/JPY forecast: death cross forms, losses key support appeared first on Invezz

US stock futures, cryptocurrencies, and crude oil reacted to the latest Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate. 

Kamala Harris victory odds rise

Futures tied to the Dow Jones dropped by 0.35% while those linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices retreated by 0.40% and 0.46%. The Dow fell by 0.23% on Tuesday while the other two rose by 0.45% and 0.85% ahead of the debate.

Crude oil, on the other hand, stabilised a bit, with Brent, rising by 0.60% to $69.6 and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by 0.67% to $66.20. Still, crude has been in a strong bearish trend, and sits near the lowest point in over 16 months. The two benchmarks have dropped by over 25% from the highest point this year. 

Cryptocurrency prices were fairly muted as the debate went on. Bitcoin held steady at $56,800 while Ethereum fell slightly to $2,347. Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) dropped to $513 and $133, respectively. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies dropped by 0.9% to $2.09.

This performance is likely a sign that Kamala Harris won the debate against Donald Trump. A good example of this is what happened in the crypto industry. The Kamala Horris (KAMA) token rose by 3.1% to $0.0094, giving it a market cap of over $9.3 million. It has risen by over 10% in the last seven days. 

On the other hand, MAGA Hat, dropped by 6.8% while Doland Tremp and Super Trump fell by over 6% as the debate went on. 

Most important, Harris odds of beating Trump improved on Polymarket. Data from the website shows that the two were tied at 4.9%. Before the debate, Trump had a bigger margin of 54% compared to Harris 47%. The poll has over $859 million in assets.

Another Polymarket poll with over $755k in assets predicted that Harris would be the favourite to win after the debate with a 54% chance. 

What is clear, however, is that the presidential race will be close as recent polls have shown. A closely-watched New York Times and Sienna poll showed that Trump had a one-point lead nationally while they were virtually tied in most swing states.

Trump vs Harris on the economy

Therefore, cryptocurrency prices retreated because Donald Trump is the favorite candidate for the crypto community. In recent statements, he has sounded extremely supportive of the crypto industry. He even holds cryptocurrencies worth over $5 million.

Harris, on the other hand, has little support, partly because she has not expressed support for the industry and is rumoured to nominate Gary Gensler as the Treasury secretary. Gensler is highly disliked by crypto participants for his legislation through prosecution.

Crude oil also stabilised because of her rising odds. Trump has expressed support for the fossil fuel industry, through his drill, baby, drill, policies. In reality, however, Harris and Biden have been relatively good for the industry as energy prices have remained at an elevated level during their presidency. Trump’s policies would lead to more supply, possibly hurting prices. 

Trump and Harris also highlighted their economic plans. Trump has vowed to impose substantial tariffs on countries like China in a bid to lower the trade deficit. This week, he said that he would impose tariffs on countries that abandon the US dollar. 

Harris has pledged to hike taxes on companies and fight price gouging, especially among retailers. 

Assets outlook after the election

The reality, however, is that most assets ignore the president in the long-term. For example, cryptocurrencies have done well during Joe Biden and Gary Gensler’s era. Bitcoin, which was trading at $35,000 when Biden was sworn in, rose to a record high of $73,800. Ethereum was also trading at $1,300 and moved to over $4,000 earlier this year. 

This price action happened even after Gary Gensler sued many companies in the industry like OpenSea, Coinbase, and Kraken. On the positive side, Gensler approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Most importantly, American stocks do well regardless of who is in the White House. Top indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices have touched a record high under most presidencies. 

It is also worth noting that most stocks that are expected to do well or fall during a presidency don’t always perform as expected. For example, solar energy companies, which were expected to boom during Biden’s presidency have underperformed the market. Some have even filed for bankruptcy.

VDE vs ICLN ETFs

On the other hand, crude oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have done well under Biden. As shown above, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has dropped by over 48% under Biden as the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) has risen by 160% in the same period.

The post Crypto, stock futures, Polymarket react to Trump, Kamala debate appeared first on Invezz

In their first-ever debate on Tuesday, former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris engaged in a heated 90-minute exchange, tackling issues such as the economy, abortion, and immigration.

The debate marked a significant departure from the June Biden-Trump debate, where President Joe Biden struggled with coherence.

In contrast, Tuesday’s debate saw Harris largely setting the agenda, while Trump frequently found himself on the defensive.

Trump and Harris present diverging economic visions

The debate began with a focus on the economy, with Harris directly criticising Trump’s trade policies and economic record.

She highlighted the trade deficit during Trump’s presidency and attacked his plan to reintroduce tariffs, stating, “Donald Trump has no plan for you,” emphasising his lack of direction for the future.

Trump, on the other hand, defended his economic record, asserting, “I created one of the greatest economies in the history of our country.”

He dismissed Harris’s criticisms, inaccurately claiming that inflation under the current administration was the worst in US history, and complained, “People can’t go out and buy cereal, or bacon, or anything else.”

Harris countered by promoting her “opportunity economy,” which includes tax breaks for small businesses, parental relief, and measures against corporate price-gouging.

“I am the only person on this stage that is about lifting up the middle class,” she declared, referencing her own middle-class background.

The candidates’ remarks underscored their differing economic strategies, with Harris focusing on middle-class growth and Trump emphasising his past economic achievements.

Trump makes sensational claims about immigration

Immigration became a focal point during the debate, with Trump making dramatic and unfounded claims about migrants.

He alleged, “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, the people that came in, they’re eating the cats … they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.”

This statement was based on a social media post alleging disturbing activities involving Haitian immigrants. However, Springfield police have denied any reports of pets being stolen or eaten.

Despite moderators’ attempts to challenge his remarks and question his plans for mass deportations, Trump persisted with his narrative.

He struggled to stay focused, frequently shifting topics between the economy, healthcare, and immigration. His rhetoric appeared more focused on attacking Harris rather than providing concrete policies.

Abortion debate sees Trump cautious and Harris assertive

Abortion and reproductive rights were contentious topics. Trump, aware of his vulnerability on this issue, took a cautious stance, stating, “As far as the abortion ban, no, I’m not in favour of an abortion ban,” but shifted responsibility to the states, claiming, “This issue has now been taken over by the states.”

He distanced himself from Senator JD Vance’s support for a national ban, asserting, “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness.”

Harris criticised Trump’s position, calling it “insulting to the women of America” and highlighting the dangers women face under restrictive abortion laws.

She stressed the difficulties women encounter in states with abortion bans and addressed issues surrounding IVF care.

Harris countered Trump’s claims that Democrats support extreme abortion practices by asserting that Americans have “voted for freedom” in supporting reproductive rights.

This exchange resonated strongly with voters, particularly in swing states.

Contrasting views on Ukraine and Gaza

The debate also highlighted stark contrasts in their approaches to international issues. On Ukraine, Harris accused Trump of being too lenient towards Russia, suggesting that if he were in office, Vladimir Putin would have already taken Kyiv.

Trump, when asked if he wanted Ukraine to win, avoided a direct answer, focusing instead on ending the war through negotiations.

“I want the war to stop. I want to save lives,” he said, stressing the importance of reaching a deal to prevent further destruction. He blamed the Biden administration’s lack of leadership for allowing Russia to invade Ukraine.

Regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict, Harris supported a ceasefire that includes releasing Israeli captives while reaffirming her commitment to arming Israel.

“Israel has a right to defend itself… this war must end,” she said, backing a two-state solution and defending Israel against Iran and its proxies.

Trump, in contrast, claimed that the conflict would not have occurred under his administration and accused Harris of being biased against Israel. He also falsely claimed that the Biden administration had lifted sanctions on Iran.

Debate performance and voter reactions

The debate featured sharp exchanges and personal attacks, with Harris using the opportunity to highlight Trump’s past racial controversies and legal issues.

Trump, in turn, tried to label Harris as a liberal extremist, mixing humour with hostility. Harris responded assertively, keeping the focus on her own policies.

Voter reactions were notable, with a CNN poll of debate watchers showing that Kamala Harris was perceived to have outperformed Donald Trump.

A Fox News Digital panel also favoured Harris, with 12 out of 17 voters indicating she won the debate. This performance could potentially give Harris an edge over Trump in the closely contested race.

As the election approaches, the debate may play a crucial role in shaping voter opinions, with Harris’s performance potentially boosting her candidacy against Trump.

The post Trump vs Harris presidential debate: Key takeaways and voters’ reactions appeared first on Invezz

Late on Tuesday night, Taylor Swift, one of America’s most influential cultural icons, announced her official endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for the 2024 US presidential election.

The endorsement, made after Harris’ debate with former President Donald Trump, quickly stirred both political and celebrity circles.

Swift’s decision to support Harris, communicated via Instagram to her 283 million followers, highlights the growing political alignment between the singer and Democratic causes.

The pop star’s endorsement provides Harris with a high-profile backer at a crucial moment, as the vice president aims to secure more young voters in what could be a closely contested election.

In her Instagram post, Swift expressed admiration for Harris’s positions on key issues and wrote:

I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.

Swift’s political evolution and impact

Swift’s political engagement has been on a steady rise since 2018 when she first endorsed a Democratic candidate, Phil Bredesen, in the Tennessee Senate race.

While she remained largely apolitical early in her career, she has become a vocal advocate for progressive causes in recent years, speaking out on issues such as abortion rights, LGBTQ+ protections, and voter participation.

Her Instagram post endorsing Harris and Walz emphasised the importance of transparency, particularly in an era where misinformation can spread rapidly.

Swift cited concerns about artificial intelligence and the potential for AI-generated content to falsely associate her with political figures she does not support, such as Trump. Swift wrote:

It really conjured up my fears around AI and the dangers of spreading misinformation. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.

Swift’s influence among younger generations is undeniable. In 2023, she encouraged voter registration through her social media channels, leading to a significant spike in new registrations.

This pattern of using her platform to engage fans politically demonstrates how her endorsement of Harris could provide the campaign with a boost among first-time and younger voters, a key demographic for the 2024 election.

Kamala Harris’s pop culture embrace

For Vice President Harris, the endorsement from Swift is a significant gain. The Harris campaign has frequently leveraged pop culture to engage voters, particularly with musical artists.

Her rallies have often resembled concert-like atmospheres, featuring performances by artists such as Megan Thee Stallion and DJ sets that warm up crowds before Harris takes the stage.

In contrast to the quieter, more subdued Biden rallies, Harris has embraced the energy and excitement that younger voters bring to her events.

This strategy of combining political messaging with entertainment has helped Harris appeal to a broader and younger audience, and the addition of Swift’s star power only amplifies this approach.

Polls suggest that Harris is more popular with younger voters than Biden, and Swift’s endorsement plays directly into that advantage.

In her endorsement, Swift also praised Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, for his decades of standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, women’s reproductive freedoms, and more.

Swift’s admiration for Walz highlights the strategic nature of the Harris-Walz ticket, which seeks to unify progressives on a range of social issues, from gender equality to healthcare.

Trump campaign responds to Swift endorsement

The Trump campaign was quick to dismiss Swift’s endorsement of Harris. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump, framed the endorsement as evidence that “the Democrat party has become the party of the wealthy elite.”

This response mirrored similar backlash Swift received after endorsing Biden and Harris in 2020, when conservatives urged her to stay out of politics and focus solely on her music.

Despite these criticisms, Swift has remained undeterred in her political activism.

Her past endorsements, while controversial among some conservatives, have positioned her as a figure whose voice resonates with millions, particularly among progressive voters.

The fact that her social media following is larger than that of most US politicians only adds to her influence.

A potential voter surge for Harris

The timing of Swift’s endorsement is significant. Coming immediately after Harris’s debate with Trump, Swift’s support could help solidify the vice president’s standing with undecided and younger voters.

In her Instagram post, Swift linked to Vote.gov, encouraging her followers to register to vote—a move reminiscent of her 2023 post that led to tens of thousands of new voter registrations in just 24 hours.

With the 2024 election heating up, the role of celebrity endorsements, especially from figures like Swift, who command vast followings, could play a pivotal role.

Harris’s campaign is likely to see a surge of interest in the coming weeks, thanks in part to Swift’s backing.

Whether this translates into actual votes remains to be seen, but the Swift-Harris alignment taps into the power of pop culture to influence political outcomes.

Harris and the challenges ahead

While Swift’s endorsement brings Harris valuable attention, the vice president still faces significant challenges.

The upcoming election will require her to navigate intense scrutiny over her policies and build on her base of support among progressive voters.

Issues such as reproductive rights, immigration, and healthcare will be at the forefront of the campaign, and Harris will need to make the case that she, not Trump, is the leader to guide the US forward.

For now, Harris can count on Swift’s passionate endorsement as a key part of her outreach to younger, more progressive voters.

In an election where every vote matters, having one of the world’s biggest pop stars on her side could make all the difference.

The post Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris: Can the singer’s support help the Democrat nominee? appeared first on Invezz

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will meet face to face for the first time on Tuesday in the much-anticipated US presidential debate.

The debate marks a pivotal moment in the 2024 race, as both candidates vie for the presidency.

While Vice President Harris has energized the Democratic campaign since replacing President Joe Biden in July, her lead over Trump has narrowed in recent days, reflecting an extremely tight race.

According to the Financial Times poll tracker, Harris holds a slim 2.9 percentage point advantage over Trump nationally.

As the race heats up, both candidates will be under pressure to deliver a strong performance when they take the stage at 9 p.m. ET in Philadelphia.

Harris and Trump: Who will look more presidential?

Tuesday’s debate will follow a similar format to past presidential debates, with each candidate having their microphone switched off while the other is speaking.

ABC anchors Linsey Davis and David Muir will moderate, giving each candidate two minutes to answer questions, followed by two minutes for rebuttal, and a minute for follow-up. No prepared notes will be allowed.

Harris, who is less familiar to voters than Trump, will face heightened scrutiny.

Georgetown University government professor Hans Noel noted, “The stakes are high for both of them, but more for Harris.”

This will be her first major opportunity to directly engage Trump and defend her policies.

For Trump, the challenge will be finding effective attack lines against his opponent.

The former president has relied on personal attacks, including questioning Harris’s racial identity and reposting sexist social media comments.

However, polls show that these tactics may not resonate with voters as much as substantive policy discussions.

Trump seeks to define Harris

Both candidates will aim to shape how Harris is perceived by the public, particularly among voters who may know less about her.

Trump has portrayed Harris as a radical communist and inconsistent on policy, while also mocking her as “Laughing Kamala.”

However, he has struggled to find a focused line of attack that resonates with the public.

For Trump, the debate is a critical moment to redirect his campaign. Republican strategist Kevin Madden emphasized,

He’s going to have 90 minutes to offer a real focused line of attack on Harris . . . better than any 30-second ad.

Harris, on the other hand, will use the debate to present her policy proposals and strengthen her campaign’s substance.

After criticism that her campaign lacks detailed policy plans, the debate provides a key opportunity to prove otherwise.

Will Harris use her prosecutor background to challenge Trump?

Harris’s experience as a prosecutor has been a central part of her political identity, and she has been more aggressive than Biden in targeting Trump over his legal challenges.

During her address at the Democratic National Convention, Harris drew comparisons between her experience prosecuting “fraudsters” and Trump’s legal troubles.

She has continued to press these issues on the campaign trail, contrasting her background with Trump’s court appearances.

Trump, meanwhile, is expected to counter by painting Harris as a “weak-on-crime” prosecutor and radical prosecutor — a line of attack that may resonate with his base.

Competing economic visions to dominate debate

Voters consistently rank the economy as a top concern, and both candidates will outline their contrasting economic visions.

Trump, promoting his “America First” agenda, will emphasize tax cuts, deregulation, and energy production.

He is also expected to announce sweeping tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing.

In contrast, Harris will push for higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, alongside proposals for child care tax credits and expanded social safety nets.

However, Harris has faced criticism for not offering enough details on issues like price gouging, raising concerns among some economists about potential price controls.

While voters have previously trusted Trump more on economic issues, recent polling suggests that trust may be shifting in Harris’s favor, adding a new dynamic to the debate.

Immigration and abortion: Key flashpoints

Immigration and abortion are two critical issues that could sway voters during the debate.

Trump is likely to attack Harris for her role in handling the US-Mexico border crisis, which has seen a surge in migrants.

He is expected to point out that Harris, as vice president, was tasked with addressing the root causes of migration but has made little progress.

Meanwhile, Harris will link Trump to the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, emphasizing her commitment to reproductive rights.

Trump’s stance on abortion remains complicated as he tries to balance the views of his religious base with those of more moderate voters.

Republican strategist Doug Heye noted that Trump’s approach could be effective if he remains focused.

When Harris says she will do something on any topic, all he has to say is, ‘you’ve been there for three and a half years — why haven’t you done anything yet?

As the debate approaches, both candidates will aim to sharpen their messages and appeal to a diverse electorate, with issues like the economy, immigration, and personal integrity set to take center stage.

The post Harris and Trump to face off in high-stakes debate: key things to watch out for appeared first on Invezz

For the first time, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will face off in what is set to be a high-stakes debate tonight.

This showdown marks a pivotal moment in the 2024 presidential campaign and offers voters a clear view of the candidates’ contrasting visions for America’s future.

With a chaotic campaign season behind them, this may be the only opportunity for both to present their cases side-by-side in front of a national audience.

With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race in July and endorsing Harris, this debate is seen as a crucial moment for the candidates as they vie for leadership.

Where and when is the debate?

The Trump-Harris debate is scheduled for Tuesday, September 10, at 9 p.m. ET.

It will take place at Philadelphia’s National Constitution Center, a symbolic venue in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.

With no live audience, the event will allow the candidates to focus entirely on addressing the pressing issues without the usual reactions from the crowd.

The debate follows a turbulent campaign season that saw major shifts in the political landscape.

President Biden, facing mounting pressure from within his party after a lackluster performance in the June debate, stepped aside, allowing Harris to step into the spotlight.

On the other side, Trump, after surviving an assassination attempt earlier this year, has secured his position as the Republican frontrunner.

Debate start time and how to watch

The debate is set to begin at 9 p.m. ET.

It will be broadcast live by ABC News, with prominent anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis moderating the event.

Coverage will be extensive, starting with a primetime special on NBC News at 8 p.m. ET.

Anchors Lester Holt and Savannah Guthrie will lead the pre-debate analysis, offering insights into what viewers can expect.

Viewers can tune in live through various platforms, including:

  • NBC News (local stations)
  • NBC 4 New York streaming channel (available for free on platforms like Peacock, YouTube, Samsung TV Plus, and the NBC News app)
  • ABC News for direct coverage at 9 p.m. ET

For those unable to watch on traditional TV, streaming options will be available across major devices, ensuring that the debate is accessible to a wide audience.

Debate rules and format

ABC News has laid out specific rules to ensure a structured and fair debate. Each candidate will have two minutes to respond to each question, with an additional two-minute rebuttal time.

A unique aspect of this debate is the use of muted microphones—when one candidate is speaking, the other’s mic will be turned off to avoid interruptions, ensuring that each participant has a fair chance to make their case.

There will be no opening statements. Instead, the debate will go directly into questions posed by the moderators.

The closing statements will last two minutes, with Trump delivering his closing remarks last, following a coin toss that gave him the choice.

One major focus of tonight’s debate will be the economy, foreign policy, and how both candidates plan to address pressing issues like inflation, healthcare, and national security.

Harris, who has positioned herself as a steady hand in a challenging political environment, will seek to convince voters that she’s ready to lead.

Trump, on the other hand, will likely lean on his previous tenure in the White House, promoting his policies as key to revitalizing the economy and strengthening America’s global position.

What to expect from the debate

Tonight’s debate comes at a critical juncture in the 2024 race. Harris has spent the past months solidifying her position as the Democratic candidate after a rough summer, while Trump continues to dominate the Republican field despite significant challenges.

The event promises to showcase the candidates’ starkly different approaches to leadership and policy.

Harris is expected to emphasize her experience as Vice President and her readiness to step into the role of Commander-in-Chief.

Trump, known for his bold rhetoric, is likely to double down on his core campaign promises—reviving the economy, cutting taxes, and tightening immigration policies.

Given the high stakes of tonight’s event, it is expected to set the tone for the final stretch of the campaign. Both candidates will need to be sharp, as any misstep could significantly impact their chances moving forward.

For viewers, the debate offers an unfiltered look at two candidates vying for the nation’s highest office, and it could provide a clearer sense of what the next four years might look like.

In short, the Trump vs Harris presidential debate is shaping up to be a defining moment in the 2024 election, with both candidates aiming to sway undecided voters in the final push before Election Day. Tune in tonight to witness this critical event in American politics.

The post Trump vs. Harris presidential debate tonight: Start time, how to watch, and streaming details appeared first on Invezz

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the financial backing of the country’s wealthiest individuals is becoming increasingly significant.

While both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have secured millions in donations from small donors, it is the billionaires’ support that could sway the campaign.

Bloomberg has compiled a list of the wealthiest Americans who have expressed support for one of the presidential candidates, either through direct statements or financial contributions.

Drawing from Federal Election Commission data as of August, the report highlights members of the Bloomberg Billionaires Index who have made donations to either the Harris or Trump campaigns.

Billionaires supporting Harris Billionaires supporting Trump
Eric Schmidt: $3 million Miriam Adelson: $5.8 million
Dustin Moskovitz: $929,600 Diane Hendricks: $5.8 million
Melinda French Gates: $3,300 Kelcy Warren: $5.8 million
Laurene Powell Jobs: $929,000 Stephen Schwarzman: $419,600
Elizabeth Johnson: $156,600 Jeff Hildebrand: $3,300
Pat Stryker: $1.05 million Harold Hamm: $817,300
David Shaw: $1.975 million Andy Beal: $1.038 million
Steven Spielberg: $929,600 Tilman Fertitta: $410,600
Margot Perot: $20,000 Bernie Marcus: $1.844 million
Mark Cuban: Endorsement, no donation yet Woody Johnson IV: $1.806 million

Source: Bloomberg

Trump leads in billionaire support

Former President Donald Trump has attracted significant support from some of the wealthiest Americans.

His campaign has received a total of $24.4 million from 13 billionaires, with the top three donors — Miriam Adelson, Diane Hendricks, and Kelcy Warren — contributing a substantial $5.8 million each.

These contributions include donations to the Trump 47 Committee and allied super PACs, such as “Preserve America PAC” and “Make America Great Again Inc.”

The appeal of Trump’s policies, particularly in business and tax reforms, seems to resonate with several high-net-worth individuals.

Notable supporters include Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of Blackstone, and Harold Hamm, chairman of Continental Resources, each donating hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Trump campaign and its affiliated committees.

Kamala Harris’s billionaire backers

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, has garnered significant support from tech giants and philanthropists.

Harris’s campaign has raised at least $12.8 million from 20 billionaires, including those who initially supported President Joe Biden.

These contributions were transferred to Harris after she became the candidate.

Former Alphabet CEO Eric Schmidt is Harris’ top donor, contributing nearly $3 million to her campaign through the Future Forward PAC.

The tech industry, in particular, has shown a strong preference for Harris, with substantial donations from the likes of Dustin Moskovitz, co-founder of Meta Platforms, and Laurene Powell Jobs, founder of Emerson Collective.

Meanwhile, high-profile figures such as Mark Cuban have endorsed Harris, though they have yet to make direct financial contributions.

Key endorsements without direct donations

Beyond the direct financial contributions, some billionaires have chosen to endorse candidates without making monetary donations. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, formally endorsed Trump but has not donated directly to his campaign.

Instead, he helped launch “America PAC,” which supports Trump’s re-election efforts. Similarly, Mark Cuban has endorsed Harris but has not yet contributed financially.

These endorsements could play a pivotal role in shaping public opinion and influencing undecided voters, showcasing the complex dynamics of billionaire support in US elections.

The post Trump vs. Harris: Complete list of billionaires supporting each candidate appeared first on Invezz

US stock futures, cryptocurrencies, and crude oil reacted to the latest Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate. 

Kamala Harris victory odds rise

Futures tied to the Dow Jones dropped by 0.35% while those linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices retreated by 0.40% and 0.46%. The Dow fell by 0.23% on Tuesday while the other two rose by 0.45% and 0.85% ahead of the debate.

Crude oil, on the other hand, stabilised a bit, with Brent, rising by 0.60% to $69.6 and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by 0.67% to $66.20. Still, crude has been in a strong bearish trend, and sits near the lowest point in over 16 months. The two benchmarks have dropped by over 25% from the highest point this year. 

Cryptocurrency prices were fairly muted as the debate went on. Bitcoin held steady at $56,800 while Ethereum fell slightly to $2,347. Binance Coin (BNB) and Solana (SOL) dropped to $513 and $133, respectively. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies dropped by 0.9% to $2.09.

This performance is likely a sign that Kamala Harris won the debate against Donald Trump. A good example of this is what happened in the crypto industry. The Kamala Horris (KAMA) token rose by 3.1% to $0.0094, giving it a market cap of over $9.3 million. It has risen by over 10% in the last seven days. 

On the other hand, MAGA Hat, dropped by 6.8% while Doland Tremp and Super Trump fell by over 6% as the debate went on. 

Most important, Harris odds of beating Trump improved on Polymarket. Data from the website shows that the two were tied at 4.9%. Before the debate, Trump had a bigger margin of 54% compared to Harris 47%. The poll has over $859 million in assets.

Another Polymarket poll with over $755k in assets predicted that Harris would be the favourite to win after the debate with a 54% chance. 

What is clear, however, is that the presidential race will be close as recent polls have shown. A closely-watched New York Times and Sienna poll showed that Trump had a one-point lead nationally while they were virtually tied in most swing states.

Trump vs Harris on the economy

Therefore, cryptocurrency prices retreated because Donald Trump is the favorite candidate for the crypto community. In recent statements, he has sounded extremely supportive of the crypto industry. He even holds cryptocurrencies worth over $5 million.

Harris, on the other hand, has little support, partly because she has not expressed support for the industry and is rumoured to nominate Gary Gensler as the Treasury secretary. Gensler is highly disliked by crypto participants for his legislation through prosecution.

Crude oil also stabilised because of her rising odds. Trump has expressed support for the fossil fuel industry, through his drill, baby, drill, policies. In reality, however, Harris and Biden have been relatively good for the industry as energy prices have remained at an elevated level during their presidency. Trump’s policies would lead to more supply, possibly hurting prices. 

Trump and Harris also highlighted their economic plans. Trump has vowed to impose substantial tariffs on countries like China in a bid to lower the trade deficit. This week, he said that he would impose tariffs on countries that abandon the US dollar. 

Harris has pledged to hike taxes on companies and fight price gouging, especially among retailers. 

Assets outlook after the election

The reality, however, is that most assets ignore the president in the long-term. For example, cryptocurrencies have done well during Joe Biden and Gary Gensler’s era. Bitcoin, which was trading at $35,000 when Biden was sworn in, rose to a record high of $73,800. Ethereum was also trading at $1,300 and moved to over $4,000 earlier this year. 

This price action happened even after Gary Gensler sued many companies in the industry like OpenSea, Coinbase, and Kraken. On the positive side, Gensler approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Most importantly, American stocks do well regardless of who is in the White House. Top indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices have touched a record high under most presidencies. 

It is also worth noting that most stocks that are expected to do well or fall during a presidency don’t always perform as expected. For example, solar energy companies, which were expected to boom during Biden’s presidency have underperformed the market. Some have even filed for bankruptcy.

VDE vs ICLN ETFs

On the other hand, crude oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have done well under Biden. As shown above, the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF has dropped by over 48% under Biden as the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) has risen by 160% in the same period.

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In a landmark decision, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ruled that Ireland must receive €13 billion ($14.4 billion) in unpaid taxes from Apple.

The decision, which is final, marks a significant turn in a prolonged legal battle that Dublin had fought to avoid.

Irish government faces political and financial dilemmas

The ruling leaves Ireland in a politically awkward yet financially advantageous position. With a general election required by March next year, Irish lawmakers must now decide how best to allocate this substantial cash injection.

The unexpected windfall comes at a time when the country is already dealing with significant infrastructural issues and a housing crisis.

Aidan Regan, associate professor of political economy at University College Dublin, commented on the situation,

The Irish government is now confronted with domestic pressures and an upcoming election. They have been asserting that this €13 billion is not theirs, but now they must address how to use it effectively.

The Irish government, which had consistently argued against the repayment of the taxes, maintains that it does not offer preferential tax treatment to any companies.

A spokesperson for the Finance Ministry referred to the government’s written statement, highlighting that the case is now of “historical relevance only.”

The government is preparing to transfer the assets held in an escrow fund to Ireland following the ECJ’s decision.

Impact on Ireland’s reputation and tax policies

Ireland has long been known for its low corporate tax rates, which have attracted numerous multinational companies, including Apple.

The country’s position on the case was rooted in concerns that enforcing the tax repayment could undermine its attractiveness as a business hub.

The ECJ’s ruling confirmed the European Commission’s 2016 decision that Ireland had granted Apple “unlawful aid” and required the recovery of the funds.

This decision comes at a time when Ireland is already experiencing a budget surplus, partly due to strong corporate tax receipts.

Robert Dever, a tax partner at Pinsent Masons, noted,

While this decision is financially beneficial for Ireland, it challenges the government’s long-standing stance that it does not provide preferential tax treatment. The ruling may impact Ireland’s international reputation, although recent changes to the tax code may mitigate some of this damage.

The process of transferring the funds from the escrow account to Ireland is expected to take several months to complete.

Global implications and calls for tax reform

The ruling has sparked discussions about the need for global tax reform. Alex Cobham, CEO of the Tax Justice Network, welcomed the decision but emphasised the broader issue of inadequate international tax rules.

“This ruling highlights the failure of current tax regulations to protect countries’ rights to tax economic activity within their jurisdictions,” Cobham stated.

Chiara Putaturo, EU tax expert at Oxfam, echoed similar sentiments, calling for comprehensive reform. Putaturo said,

This ruling exposes the problematic relationship between EU tax havens and multinationals. It should be a catalyst for closing all tax loopholes and ensuring that revenue is used for public services and combating climate change.

The ECJ’s decision underscores the ongoing challenges in international tax law and the need for continued reform to address corporate tax avoidance and ensure fair taxation.

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Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) saw its stock plummet by as much as 18% today following comments from Russell Hutchinson, the company’s Chief Financial Officer.

Hutchinson attributed the sharp decline to escalating credit challenges driven by rising inflation and a higher cost of living.

In recent months, delinquencies in Ally Financial’s retail auto segment have exceeded expectations by 20 basis points, causing concern among investors.

Additionally, Hutchinson highlighted a “weakening employment picture” that has begun to impact the company’s borrowers, as revealed at a financial conference on Tuesday.

The NYSE-listed firm is also grappling with a class action lawsuit related to a data breach, adding to its troubles. As a result, Ally Financial’s stock is down approximately 30% from its year-to-date high on July 31st.

RBC sees an upside in Ally Financial stock to $49

Ally Financial noted an increase in net charge-offs that exceeded its own estimates by 10 basis points in July and August.

The management had previously guided for an up to 15 basis points of margin expansion for the third quarter but now expects that metric to decline sequentially as well.  

Still, there’s reason to believe that the sell-off in its stock price this morning may be an opportunity to buy. To begin with, RBC analysts continue to see upside in ALLY to $49 that indicates potential for a more than 50% gain from here.

Today’s update, the investment firm agreed, is a disappointment but reiterated its bullish view as “this all seems manageable”. RBC’s optimism on Ally Financial stock is shared by Warren Buffett as well who currently has a 9.5% stake in the consumer lender based out Detroit, Michigan.

ALLY pays a healthy dividend yield of 3.59%

In July, Ally Financial reported 97 cents a share of earnings for its second financial quarter that handily topped Street estimates.

The New York listed firm added 54,000 net new deposit customers to end its recent quarter with 3.2 million customers in total – up 11% on a year-over-year basis that indicates solid demand for its services.

ALLY is the largest in the league of all-digital US banks, which gives it a meaningful benefit over the conventional banks that are only beginning to step into digital services.

Lastly, Ally Financial is a dividend stock that yields a rather impressive 3.59% at writing. Investing in it on the weakness today will, therefore, position you for reliable total returns even if the US economy slows down in the months ahead.

It is also noteworthy that this financial services company has not missed a dividend payment since 2016. Since then, it has increased its dividend by a whopping 275%. So, it’s track record with dividend payments is brilliant compared to other financial stocks.

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