Tempus AI Inc (NASDAQ: TEM) came crumbling down on Wednesday after Spruce Point announced a short position in the Chicago headquartered health technology company.

Spruce Point cited several reasons, including account irregularities and eroding ties with key clients like AstraZeneca, for its bet against the Nasdaq listed firm.

Tempus AI shares have been on a tear lately, which is why, despite today’s decline, they’re up more than 40% versus their year-to-date low in early April.

Why is Spruce Point short Tempus AI stock in 2025?

According to Spruce Point, the health-tech firm’s top executives, including board members, have a history of creating “disruptive technology companies” that first make bold claims but ultimately fail at delivering on them.

However, they cash out early and make millions, leaving shareholders with lackluster returns, the investment firm’s short report added.

Additionally, Tempus AI management is misleading investors about their use of artificial intelligence.

The company, based out of Chicago, Illinois, rebranded from “Tempus Labs” to “Tempus AI” last year to capitalise on the AI hype.

Still, artificial intelligence contributed only 2.0% to its overall revenue in 2024, indicating TEM’s ability to tap into AI is grossly exaggerated, the short seller argued.

TEM shares look overvalued at current levels

Investors should be cautious with Tempus AI stock this year, even if many of the recent allegations against the company are ultimately unfounded.

The primary concern lies in valuation. Since the rally that began on April 8, TEM shares have surged beyond what current fundamentals justify.

The company has yet to report a profit or generate positive net cash flow, making its current pricing appear stretched relative to its financial performance.

The Nasdaq listed firm lost $1.58 a share on $693.4 million in revenue last year. In comparison, analysts had called for $696.3 million instead.

Wall Street remains bullish on Tempus AI Inc

Despite Spruce Point’s short report, Wall Street remains reasonably bullish on Tempus AI stock for the remainder of this year.

The consensus rating on the artificial intelligence-enabled health firm sits at “overweight” with the mean target of nearly $65, indicating potential upside of more than 20% from current levels.

Part of the reason could be the company’s Q1 earnings. In the first quarter, TEM generated a little over $255 million in revenue and lost 24 cents on a per-share basis.

Consensus was $248 million and 26 cents a share, respectively.

What’s also worth mentioning here is that influential investor Cathie Wood is long this AI stock as well.

In March, her investment management company loaded up on 400,000 shares of Tempus AI across two of its flagship ETFs.

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Marvell Technology stock price has come under pressure in the past few months as concerns about its growth and valuation have remained. After peaking at $127.40 in January, it crashed by 62% to a low of $47.29. This crash has led to a $53 billion wipeout as the market cap dropped from $108 billion to $55 billion.

Why the Marvell stock retreated

Marvell Technology is a top technology company that designs and builds semiconductor products like integrated circuits and system-on-a-chip architecture. Its products are used in data centers, enterprise networking solutions, and carrier infrastructure.

The company has become a major supplier to data centers in the US and other countries. Most importantly, it is known for making custom chips for companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. 

Marvell’s business has seen higher demand as these clients change their business model. Instead of buying chips from companies like Intel, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are building custom chips to meet their unique demands. 

Apple is one company that has executed this approach well in the past few years. It abandoned Intel chips to focus on M1, M2, and M3 chips that are way much better than those made by Intel. 

Marvell’s business has seen higher demand in the past few years, which explains why its annual revenue has jumped from $2.9 billion in 2021 to $5.76 billion in the last financial year. 

Read more: Marvell stock is overvalued: will MRVL rise or fall after earnings?

The MRVL stock price has crashed in the past few months as concerns that the AI bubble was bursting rose. It also dropped because of export control measures that are expected to hit American companies with billions of dollars. NVIDIA believes that its controls will hit its Q2 revenue by $8 billion. 

Marvell Technology stock price crash also mirrored that of other companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel.

MRVL earnings ahead

The next key catalyst for the MRVL stock price will come out on Thursday when the company publishes its financial results. 

Analysts expect that Marvell Technology’s earnings will be strong. Its revenue is expected to come in at $1.88 billion, a whopping 61.8% increase from the same period last year. 

Its forward guidance for the second quarter will be $1.98 billion, a 55% annualized increase, while its full-year guidance will be $8.19 billion, a 42% annual increase. 

Marvell Technology is also expected to turn a profit this year. Its earnings per share estimate is 61 cents, a big increase from last quarter’s $0.24. 

Chances are that Marvell’s earnings will come out stronger than expected, as it has done in the past few quarters. 

The most recent results showed that Marvell’s revenue rose by 27% in Q4, helped by its data center, one rose by 78% to $1.36 billion.

MRVL stock price analysis

The daily chart shows that the MRVL share price has crashed from the year-to-date high of $127.30 to the current $64.60. It formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. 

Most recently, the stock has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is comprised of two ascending and converging trendlines. A wedge is one of the most bearish patterns in technical analysis.

Therefore, the stock will likely drop after earnings. If this happens, the next point to watch will be the year-to-date low of $47.50. That would signal a 26% plunge from the current level. 

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Okta stock price suffered a big reversal this week, making it one of the worst-performing companies. It crashed by over 16% on Wednesday, erasing some of the gains made since April 7. It was trading at $105.23, its lowest level since April 28, and 17% below the highest point this year.

Okta stock price plunges after cautious guidance

Okta is one of the biggest cybersecurity companies in the US with a market capitalization of over $18 billion. It focuses on access solutions that help companies ensure seamless access by customers, employees, and partners. 

Okta’s business has grown over the years, and now counts over 20,000 clients, including top names like Peloton, FedEx, Hewlett-Packard Enterprise, and NTT Data.

The company’s annual revenue has jumped in the past few years, moving from $835 million in 2021 to $2.6 billion last year.

Read more: Two US tech stocks on the verge of initiating dividends: here’s what to watch

Okta stock price crashed this week after the company published strong results, but warned about its guidance. Its revenue rose by 12% in the first quarter to $688 million, with its subscriptions rising to $673 million.

Okta’s results also showed that its gross margin improved marginally to 81.9%, while its operating margin jumped to 26.7%. The free cash flow margin rose to 34.7%.

The challenge, however, is that the management issued a cautious outlook, citing the uncertain economic environment. It now expects that its revenue for the current quarter will be $712 million, up 10% from last year. 

It also expects that the operating income will be between $183 million and $185 million, representing a margin of 26%. The cash flow margin will be 19%. 

Okta expects that its annual revenue will grow by between 9% and 10% this year, while the free cash flow margin will be 27%. The CEO said: 

“We remain focused on driving profitable growth, accelerating innovation, and delivering the only modern, unified identity security platform for our customers.”

Is it safe to buy the Okta dip?

The forward guidance was in line with what Wall Street analysts were expecting. Their estimate for the current quarter is that its revenue will grow by 10% to $711 million, and the annual figure will rise by 9.6% to $2.86 billion. 

Therefore, the Okta stock price tumbled since Wall Street investors anticipated more from the company. The caveat is that, like many other software companies, Okta has always been highly conservative when issuing its guidance. This explains why it regularly does better than expected. 

Investors also believe that Okta stock is also relatively overvalued as it has a forward PE ratio of 38, higher than the sector median of 22. 

However, a closer look shows that it is not all that expensive. It is growing at around 10%, while its operating margin is 26%, giving it a rule-of-40 metric of 36%. While this figure is below 40, there are signs that the company is narrowing the gap.

Okta has already achieved a healthy rule of 40 when factoring the free cash flow margin, which stands at 42%.

Okta share price analysis

Okta stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Okta share price has crashed in the past few days, moving from a high of $127.5 on May 16 to the current $105. It has dropped below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $105.93. 

It also forms a candlestick pattern with a big body and a medium-sized upper shadow. That is a sign that the stock will attempt to fill the gap, especially now that the macro factors the management talked about are easing. If this happens, the Okta stock price will likely bounce back and hit $120.

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Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) chief executive Jensen Huang says the White House has based its export regulations on the assumption that China is incapable of making its own AI chips.

But recent checks confirm this assumption is fundamentally flawed, he argued on the company’s earnings call last night, adding “the question is not whether China will have AI – it already does.”

Huang’s remarks are significant since they might suggest Beijing is not as dependent on Nvidia as some would have thought. That said, NVDA shares are up 50% versus their year-to-date low at writing.

What’s next for Nvidia as its China business comes to a halt

Jensen Huang has been vocal in his opposition to tightened chip export regulation under the Trump administration, having previously warned they’re hurting US businesses more than they are hurting China.

If it weren’t for export restrictions, Nvidia would have made up to $2.5 billion worth of additional sales in its first financial quarter, he added.

More importantly, the chipmaker last night guided for up to $45 billion in sales for its current fiscal quarter – a number that would have been as much as 18% higher without the US export regulations.

“The $50 billion China market is effectively closed to the US industry. As a result, we are taking multibillion-dollar write off on inventory that can’t be sold or repurposed,” he told investors on the call.

What’s next for China amidst trimmed access to NVDA chips

While new restrictions that disable Nvidia from selling in the world’s second-largest economy sure seem significant for the AI darling, it’s reasonable to believe that China won’t even budge because of them.

Huang has already warned that Beijing is “right behind us” in artificial intelligence. China, he’s convinced, is strongly positioned to “move on’ with or without NVDA chips.

Note that Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon also believes that barring Nvidia from selling in China is synonymous to “handing the entire AI market in China over to Huawei.”

On the flip side, however, the US President won deals worth billions for NVDA during his recent visit of the Gulf states. Plus, the AI stock currently pays a dividend as well.

Could Nvidia print a new all-time high in 2025?

Despite the China overhang, Nvidia came in handily above Street estimates in its fiscal Q1.

The company based out of Santa Clara, California earned 96 cents a share on $44.06 billion in revenue in its first financial quarter.

Analysts, in comparison, had called for 93 cents per share and $43.31 billion, respectively.

Financial strength is among the top reasons why NVDA stock remains a favourite among Wall Street analysts.

The mean target on Nvidia shares currently sits at a tad above $163, indicating potential upside of another 15% from current levels.

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Anticipation is building in the oil market as the OPEC+ meeting approaches, with a production decision expected over the weekend. 

The eight cartel members who previously implemented voluntary production cuts are now contemplating a substantial rollback of these cuts in July. 

The eight members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including kingpin Saudi Arabia and Russia, had previously agreed to increase oil production by over 400,000 barrels daily in May and June. 

“Markets are currently influenced by headlines, but they are truly awaiting a clear signal from the fundamentals,” Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodities market, oil at Ryatad Energy, said in an email.

“Even when factoring in potential downside risks, the numbers we’re seeing suggest there’s space for additional OPEC+ output in July,” he added.

This is further noted in the Brent futures curve, which remains in backwardation through October 2025. 

Strength in prices

Oil prices have firmed over the last few sessions, albeit thinner trading earlier this week due to public holidays in the US and UK. 

“The strength is likely due to relief that the threat of new US tariffs against the EU has been postponed for the time being,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

However, many uncertainties remain, especially with regard to (US) sanctions policy.

On the one hand, there are the nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.

Although these were so far inconclusive, both sides remained optimistic after the fifth round of talks and want to meet again in the near future.

A possible easing of sanctions against Iran therefore remains on the table.

On the other hand, despite a downturn in relations between Russian President Putin and US President Donald Trump, triggered by Moscow’s extensive attacks on Ukraine, Trump has stated he will “absolutely consider” implementing new sanctions against Russia. 

Conversely, Russia appears intent on minimising the significance of Trump’s response.

“Chart-wise, crude oil has been in a downtrend ever since prices peaked in March 2022, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

But that doesn’t mean that prices can’t spike sharply in either direction.

Summer demand supports OPEC output increases

According to analysts and experts, oil demand rises sharply during the summer months from May to August. 

This presents a suitable opportunity for OPEC+ to increase oil production without flooding the market. 

Liquids demand growth this summer is being driven by Europe and the Middle East, rather than Asia or North America.

Supply-side growth is primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, the US, Canada, and Brazil. However, Canada’s output faces wildfire risks, and Brazil’s may see softer demand due to alternative supplies.

Global liquids demand is projected to grow by only 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to Rystad Energy’s calculations.

However, fundamentals from May to August are supportive, with demand growth outpacing supply growth by 600,000-700,000 barrels per day, the Norway-based energy intelligence company said.

Additionally, crude and condensate demand is projected to exceed supply by over 1 million barrels daily for the indicated timeframe, Rystad noted. This assessment precedes the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this Saturday.

Refinery demand growth and supply

Globally, increased crude demand for refineries is anticipated from Asia, North America, Europe, and Russia.

Russian refinery operations may become especially important as tightening sanctions on its crude exports could lead to an increase in domestic refining.

“Overall, oil market uncertainty is likely to prompt many countries to maximize refinery runs and build product inventories, especially as stock levels remain low across regions,” Sahdev said. 

Challenges already plague US crude oil production, and the earlier narrative of a significant increase in drilling activity has faded.

With the West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the benchmark price for US oil, hovering around $60 per barrel, producers are unlikely to expand drilling activities, experts said. 

Output declines elsewhere

From May to August, output reductions are anticipated for Kazakhstan and other OPEC+ participants. This situation will allow the eight OPEC+ nations to reactivate some of their previously offline supply.

To bolster refinery margins, Saudi Arabia might provide crude oil at reduced prices for July.

Strong product margins continue to support high levels of refinery operation. 

Furthermore, the recovery of high sulfur fuel oil margins into profitable territory provides an incentive for less complex refineries to also increase their processing rates.

“In this environment, driven by public narratives and differing opinions, OPEC+ has an opportunity to increase supply modestly in July,” Sahdev said.

However, beyond August into September, this window could close, and any further increase would likely depend on supply disruptions elsewhere in the market.

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