Circle stock price has done well after its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) earlier this month. CRCL stock ended the week at $133.50, a few points below the year-to-date high of $138.27. This surge has brought its market capitalization to almost $30 billion.

Circle benefiting from stablecoin demand

Circle Internet Group is a top company in the financial services industry. While it is known for the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin, its business is more broder than that. 

For one, the company also runs EURC, a stablecoin backed by the euro that is available on Avalanche, Stellar, Base, Ethereum, and Solana. It also runs USYC, a tokenized money market fund offering returns that largely correspond to US bonds. The fund has over $300 million in assets under management (AUM). 

Circle also runs the Circle Payment Network (CPN), whose goal is to disrupt the financial system as we know today. When banks send money internationally, the process is often long and expensive since they deal with intermediaries and other rails. 

Read more: USDC issuer Circle opens trading on NYSE after oversubscribed IPO

CPN is changing this by letting banks and other companies process payments within seconds and at a minimum cost. This technology could disrupt the financial industry as we know it today. 

Circle is the second-biggest player in the stablecoin industry after Tether. Its main advantage is that it is regulated in the US and falls within the upcoming GENIUS bill. 

This means that it may benefit as companies look into stablecoins. For example, instead of creating their inhouse stablecoins, companies like Walmart and Amazon could opt to use its stablecoin. 

CPN could disrupt SWIFT, a network that processes trillions of dollars a year. It has already reached agreements with companies like Redotpy, Transfero, and Nuvei.

Read more: Circle stock price prediction: is CRCL a good buy today?

Circle revenues and profits

Stablecoin issuers, if successful, have one of the best business models in the world. They act like banks but don’t need to comply with all the regulations. 

The companies receive money from users in exchange for a digital token. They then invest these funds in safe government bonds and earn a return. But unlike banks, these companies don’t need to share the interest payments to users.

The other benefit is that these are global companies that don’t need to operate local branches. 

However, the only challenge is that its revenue depends on the actions of central banks, which they lack control about. They make more money in a period of high interest rates. 

The most recent results showed that Circle made over $1.6 billion in revenue last year, higher than the previous year’s $1.45 billion and $735 million a year earlier. 

This revenue growth happened as the company’s assets jumped and the Federal Reserve boosted its interest rates from zero during the pandemic to 4.50% today. 

Circle Internet’s net profit came in at $156 million last year, down from $267 million. 

Is Circle stock a good buy?

CRCL stock chart | Source: TradingView

Circle Internet is a good company that is in an industry expected to keep growing. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, noted that the industry could be worth over $2 trillion in the next few years. He said:

“Stablecoin legislation backed by US Treasuries or T-bills will create a market that will expand US dollar usage via these stablecoins all around the world. I think that 2 trillion is a very, very reasonable number, and I could see it greatly exceeding that.”

These forecasts mean that the Circle stock price will likely do well in the long term. The risk, however, is that it may pull back in the coming days as the euphoria phase ends and the lockup expiration period nears. If this happens, the stock could crash and then bounce back.

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Sunrun stock price has bounced back in the past few days as investors watch the progress on the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) in the Senate and others go for bargain hunting. RUN share price jumped to $10 on Friday, up by 65% from its lowest level this month.

Why Sunrun stock price has surged

Sunrun is one of the biggest players in the clean energy industry in the United States. It is an integrated firm that manufactures and installs solar panels to individual and corporate clients in the United States. 

Sunrun’s business model involves it installing solar panels to customers for zero or little upfront cost and then it recoups the funds by charging customers a monthly bill. In this subscription model, the company owns and maintains the solar infrastructure. 

The company also installs solar power to clients who take ownership of the product. Customers who select this option can pay the system upfront or through monthly payments.

Sunrun stock price has been under pressure in the past few months. Its biggest challenge is that Donald Trump and the Republican Party are working to undo Joe Biden’s flagship clean energy bill that Trump calls the Green New Scam. 

One proposal is to undo the clean energy credits that make it affordable for customers to move to solar. Joe Biden’s bill gives customers a 30% tax credit on installing solar and battery systems.

The BBB that the House of Representatives voted for eliminated some of these credits. Therefore, the Sunrun stock price has surged as investors anticipate that the Senate bill will preserve some of these credits. The CEO said:

“We expect a range of draft proposals to be issued, possibly including some draconian scenarios, but they are expected to be moderated as negotiations progress.”

RUN faces major challenges ahead

To be clear: Sunrun faces other challenges, especially in California, which made changes to its solar credit policies by transitioning from Net Energy Metering (NEM) 2.0 to Net Billing Tariff or NEM 3.0. 

This transition reduced the incentives for customers to install solar in their homes, and explains why the RUN stock price plunged by 75% between its highest point in August last year and its lowest point in April.

Sunrun stock price is also facing the tariff challenge that has boosted its import costs. The management believes that its forward purchases will help it mitigate its tariffs in the near term. But it also expects to be impacted in the long term if tariffs remain.

Analysts anticipate that the company’s growth will be steady in the foreseeable future. The average estimate is that its second-quarter revenue will be $555 million, a 5.98% increase from the same period last year. They also see the annual revenue in 2025 and 2026 being $2.24 billion and $2.5 billion, representing a 10% and 11.8% increase.

The average Sunrun stock price forecast among analysts is $11.48, up from the current $10.

Read more: Looking for 75% return within a year? Buy this solar stock today

Sunrun share price technical analysis

RUN stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the RUN stock price bounced back to $10 on Friday, a big increase from this month’s low of $6.25. It has formed a substantial bottom near the support at $6.

The stock moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control. It has moved above the 23.6% retracement level. 

RUN stock has formed a bullish engulfing pattern. Therefore, the stock may continue rising as bulls target the key resistance point at $13.27, its highest point in May, and a few points below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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The Dow Jones Index plunged by over 1.80% on Friday as concerns about geopolitics emerged. Its crash mirrored that of other American indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Russell 2000. This article explores the top 3 catalysts that will drive the Dow Jones and the US stocks this week.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision 

The most important catalyst for the Dow Jones Index will be the Federal Reserve, which will deliver its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

This decision typically impacts all assets, including American stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. 

Typically, American stocks do well when the Fed is either cutting rates or when it signals of an imminent cut. This happens because lower rates lead to lower bond yields, which push investors away from fixed income.

Economists believe that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, disappointing Donald Trump, who has called for a full point cut. 

The Fed has signalled that it would embrace a wait-and-see approach as it observes the impact of tariffs on consumer and producer prices.

Data released last week showed that US inflation rose by lower than expected in May. The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in April to 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%.

Analysts caution that these numbers don’t reflect the real situation, as companies are still using products they bought before the Liberation Day tariffs. 

Therefore, the earliest that the Fed will cut interest rates will be in the September meeting. This will depend on whether the upcoming inflation numbers will be hotter than expected. 

A dovish Fed decision will boost the Dow Jones and other US stocks, while a more hawkish one will lead to more downside.

Read more: GBP/USD forecast: signal ahead of Fed and BoE rate decisions

Iran and Israel crisis

The other top catalyst for the Dow Jones Index is the new crisis in the Middle East. This crisis started on Friday morning when Israel launched a major attack against Iran. The attack targeted key nuclear facilities and senior military and nuclear leaders.

Iran has responded to these attacks by launching a missile barrage. A wider crisis in the Middle East could have a major impact on the Dow Jones and other US stocks.

The impact will come from the rising crude oil prices. Brent, the global benchmark, ended the week at $74, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $73. 

Higher oil prices hurt many American companies by boosting the cost of doing business. They also have a negative impact on inflation, which in turn pushes the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates. 

Dow Jones to react to quadruple witching

The other major catalyst that may drive the Dow Jones and other US stocks is the upcoming quadruple witching. This is an important event that happens when stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options expire simultaneously. 

The Dow Jones and other indices always experience volatility before and after the quadruple witching event. 

Further, the index will likely react to any trade-related news during the week. Potential trade deals will be bullish for the stock market, while signs of escalation will be bearish.

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Groupon stock price has staged a strong comeback since 2023 as the e-commerce company’s turnaround efforts started to show results. It has soared in the last six consecutive weeks, moving to a high of $33.90, its highest point since August 2021. 

GRPN stock has jumped by over 967% from its lowest level in 2023, bringing its market capitalization to over $1.46 billion. This article explores why the GRPN share price has jumped and whether it has more room left. 

Why Groupon stock price has surged

Groupon is an e-commerce company that focuses on local deals. Launched in 2008, it became a well-known brand, and it rejected a $6 billion offer from Google, which it believed undervalued its business.

Google believed that Groupon would evolve into a large e-commerce player like Amazon and eBay. This, however, did not happen, as Groupon’s business and market capitalization deteriorated.

Groupon’s annual revenue has been in a free fall as customers shifted to other companies like Walmart and Amazon that offer exciting subscription services. It has moved from $1.416 billion in 2020 to $492 million last year. 

The decline was also because the company reduced its sales and marketing budget in the past few years. 

Recently, however, the Groupon stock price has rebounded as the company has continued its turnaround efforts under Dusan Senkypl, who became the Chief Executive Officer three years ago. 

Senkypl has focused on changing managing the company’s costs, including through layoffs. It laid off 500 employees in 2023 in a bid to lower costs and reduce its losses 

He has also shifted how the company spends its marketing budget. For example, the company recently increased content on a social media platform and is seeing a high return on investment. Specifically, the company is moving from customer acquisition to customer lifeline value. 

Further, the company streamlined its business by moving most of its operations to the cloud. This, in turn, led to higher operational efficiency and scalability. He has also increased the focus to hyperlocal transactions.

Long road to recovery

Groupon has a long road to recovery as its sales are still falling. The most recent results showed that its revenue dropped by 5% to $117.2 million in the first quarter, with its local revenue falling by 3% to $108.4 million. 

Groupon’s gross billings dropped by 1%, while its unit sales dropped by 17% to 8.5 million. 

The stock rose mainly because the company’s active customers grew a bit, reaching 15.5 million. It also rose as analysts predicted that the company would resume its growth in the next few years.

The annual revenue is expected to come in at $500 million this year, a 1.45% increase from a year earlier. Analysts also anticipate the revenue to rise by 7.3% next year to $536 million. 

They also expect that its business will become profitable, with the earnings per share (EPS) coming in at 25 $0.04 and $0.22 in 2025 and 2026.

Groupon share price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the GRPN share price has bounced back in the past few years. It rose from a low of $3.17 in 2023 to the current $33.89, as we predicted here.

Groupon stock has flipped the important resistance at $19.32 into a support level. It also formed a golden cross pattern as the 50-week and 200-week moving averages crossed each other. 

However, there are signs that the GRPN stock price has become highly overbought as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 80. Therefore, the Groupon stock price will likely pull back and retest the support at $20.

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Netflix stock price surged to a record high of $1,259 this month, making it one of the best-performing technology companies. It has jumped by over 670% from its lowest point in 2022, bringing its market capitalization to over $515 billion. Let’s explore why the NFLX stock has surged and what to expect. 

Why Netflix stock price has soared

Netflix share price has jumped by 36% this year, making it one of the best-performing companies in the Magnificent 7. 

This performance happened as the company’s growth accelerated. Its annual revenue has jumped from $24.9 billion in 2020 to $40 billion in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Netflix has also continued to add users to its platform. It had over 301.6 million active subscribers in the last quarter, a big increase from 232.5 million in the same period in 2023.

The company has also won the battle of the soaring competition from companies like Disney, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, HBO, and Apple TV+. All these companies have struggled to add more customers to its platform. 

The most recent results show that Netflix’s business continued to do well in the last quarter. Its revenue rose to $10.5 billion in the last quarter, up by 12.5% from the same period in $9.3 billion. 

The company’s operating income rose to $3.34 billion in the first quarter from $2.633 billion in the same period last year. Its net income continued soaring, reaching a high of $2.8 billion. 

This growth happened as the company dropped some popular series like Adolescence, Bank in Action, and Counterattack. 

Analysts anticipate that the company’s growth will continue in the coming months. The average estimate is that Netflix’s revenue will grow by 15.4% in the second quarter to $11 billion. This revenue estimate is higher than the company’s guidance of $11 billion. 

Netflix’s annual revenue is expected to come in at $44.4 billion, followed by $49.82 billion next year. The company has also emerged as a trade war survivor.

NFLX valuation concerns

A key concern that many people have is that the Netflix stock price has become highly overvalued. It has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47, higher than the median estimate of 18.6. This multiple is also higher than the five-year average of 43. 

The forward EV to EBITDA multiple of 39 is higher than the median estimate of 17. These valuation metrics mean that the company is highly overvalued since its P/E ratios are much higher than those of other Magnificent 7 firms. This explains why the current Netflix stock price is higher than the average estimate by analysts.

However, it is normal for growing companies with a large market share to spot higher valuation metrics. A good example of is companies like Visa and Mastercard that are perpetually overvalued. 

Read more: JPMorgan cuts Netflix rating, citing balanced risk-reward post-rally; stock falls

Netflix stock price analysis

The weekly chart shows that the NFLX share price has been in a strong bull run in the past few months. It recently moved above the key resistance level at $1,061, its highest swing on February 18.

The stock price remains above the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control. 

The MACD indicator has continued rising and is nearing the key point at 100. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the overbought level of 68. 

The most likely scenario is where the Netflix stock price retreats and retests the key support at $1,060. This price action is known as a break-and-retest and is one of the most popular continuation signs. 

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