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Pi coin crypto price has remained in a tight range this month as buyers remained on the sidelines pushing its volume sharply lower. Pi Network token was trading at $0.6032 on Monday morning, a range it has remained at in the past few weeks.

This price is about 52% above its lowest point last week when the crypto market crashed following th start of the Israel and Iran conflict. This article explains why the Pi token price may bounce back, and possibly hit the resistance at $1 in the coming weeks.

Pi crypto price technical analysis

Technicals point to a potential rebound in the coming weeks as the token goes through an accumulation phase. Pi Network price has formed a hammer candlestick pattern, which is characterized by a long lower shadow and a small body. This candlestick pattern leads to a reversal when it happens.

Pi token price has also formed a triple-bottom pattern, a popular bullish reversal sign. This pattern comprises of three distinct bottoms, which, in this case, are at around the support at $0.60. A triple-bottom often leads to a strong bullish rebound.

The other contrarian bullish case for the Pi crypto price is that its volatility has dried up in the past few days. For example, the three lines of the Bollinger Bands and the Donchian Channels have narrowed substantially.

The Average True Range (ATR) indicator has continued falling in the past few weeks. It jumped slightly on Friday as the token crashed and then resumed the downward trend.

Therefore, these indicators and the triple-bottom pattern points to a short-squeeze in the coming days. If this happens, the first level to watch will be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level at $0.6600.

A break above that level will signal more gains, potentially to the psychological point at $1, which is about 65% above the current level. A drop below the lower side of the hammer at $0.3945 will invalidate the bullish view.

PI price chart | Source: TradingView

The bullish case for Pi Network token

There are a few potential catalysts that may push the Pi crypto price higher in the long term.

First, there are signs that the .pi domain auction that has been going on since earlier this year. This domain auction lets users compete to get their .pi domain names, which they can use to build applications.

It is largely similar to Ethereum Name Service (ENS), which lets users hold .eth domain names. In a recent note, the developers said that the auction was seeing strong demand from domain squatting, where users were mostly focused on domain names associated with major brands.

Second, June 28 will be Pi Day 2, which is a special day celebrated mostly by mathematics professionals. Most users who celebrate on this date argue that it is the real Pi Day, instead of the one celebrated on March 14.

Pi Network has historically used the Pi Day to deliver important announcements. For example, the Pi Domains auction was launched on Pi Day in March and will end on Pi Day 2. As such, there is a likelihood that Pi coin price will have some volatility ahead of the day.

Third, the token may jump ahead of the second phase of the Pi Network phase two migration, which may happen within the next few months.

Finally, and most importantly, while risks remain, there is a likelihood that at least one major exchange will list Pi Network. Such a move would likely lead to a big short-squeeze. For example, tokens like Pocket Network, Livepeer, and Orca jumped by over 100% within a day after their exchange listings.

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Business

USD/CHF forecast ahead of SNB and Fed interest rate decisions

The USD/CHF exchange rate has plunged in the past few months as the Swiss franc gained momentum because of its safe-haven status and the ongoing US dollar index (DXY) crash. The pair retreated to a low of 0.8054 last week, its lowest swing since April 22.

It has plunged by 11.72% from its highest point since January, making the Swiss franc one of the best-performing currencies this year. This article explores the USDCHF forecast ahead of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

Swiss National Bank interest rate decision

The USD/CHF exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the SNB delivers its monetary policy decision on June 19.

Economists polled by Bloomberg believe that the bank will decide to slash interest rates again. In this case, the bank will bring rates to zero, continuing a trend that started last year.

Some analysts still believe that the bank will opt to cut rates below zero this week, while others, including Goldman Sachs and Nomura, expect that the bank will slash rates below zero in September.

The bank’s dovish tone is mostly because its view that the Swiss franc is highly overvalued against the euro and the US dollar. Rate cuts, as such, are meant to make the currency unattractive to investors and businesses.

The SNB prefers a weaker currency because the country generates most of its revenue from exports, mainly to the European Union. A stronger franc makes its exports less competitive.

One reason for cutting interest rates will be to intensify the carry trade opportunity between the US and Switzerland. A carry trade happens when investors borrow from a low-interest-rate country and invest in a high-interest-rate country.

In this case, a risk-free trade is to borrow in Switzerland and invest in a high-yielding country like the United States, where interest rates remains at 4.50%.

The other reason for the SNB interest rate cut will be to stimulate inflation in Switzerland. Recent data shows that the headline consumer inflation has turned negative for the first time since 2021, as the weaker Swiss franc has made it cheaper to import key products like oil.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision

The other key catalyst for the USD/CHF exchange rate will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Most economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged and maintain a wait-and-see approach.

The Fed is waiting for more data to provide more color about the state of inflation following Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

Polymarket data shows that most traders don’t expect the Fed to cut until September.

This week’s interest rate decision will irk Donald Trump, who has pressed the Fed to deliver a full point.

The USD/CHF exchange rate will also react to several key economic data this week. The US will publish the latest retail sales, manufacturing production, and industrial production data.

USD/CHF technical analysis

USD/CHF exchange rate chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/CHF exchange rate has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months. It has moved from a high of 0.9200 in February to a low of 0.8100, its lowest point since April.

The pair has moved below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). It formed a death cross pattern on April 7, a sign that the downtrend is continuing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator have all drifted downwards.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continues falling as sellers target the psychological point at 0.800.

However, there is hope that the USD/CHF pair will rebound since it is facing a double-bottom pattern at 0.8055 and a neckline at 0.8473.

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Business

USD/JPY forecast: signal ahead of BoJ and FOMC decision

The USD/JPY exchange rate could be on the verge of a big move after forming a symmetrical triangle ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. The pair was trading at 144 on Monday, a few points above the year-to-date low of 139.95.

BoJ interest rate decision

The USD/JPY pair will be in focus this week as the BoJ delivers its interest rate decision on Tuesday.

This will be a notable meeting because it comes as Japan’s bond market faces major challenges. The ten-year yield recently peaked at 1.588%, where it formed a double-top pattern with a neckline at 1.06%. A double-top pattern points to more downside, which explains why the yield has pulled back to 1.45%.

Japan ten-year yield | Source: TradingView

Economists expect the Bank of Japan to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, where they have been since January. It has already hiked interest rates three times, with the current level being the highest it has been in decades.

The main reason why the bank will not cut interest rates is that the country’s economy is slowing as exports drop. A recent data showed that the Japanese economy remained in a technical recession in the first quarter as exports dropped.

Hiking interest rates in a period when the economy is slowing is risky because they make it more expensive for individuals and companies to borrow.

At the same time, the BoJ is still dealing with high inflation in the country. Recent data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.5% in April from 3.2% in the previous month.

The headline consumer price index (CPI) also jumped to 3.6% as it moved further away from the bank’s target of 2.0%.

While the BoJ will leave interest rates intact, it may also decide to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace. The bank intends to taper its bond purchases to reduce its footprint in the market. In a note, an analyst said:

“To carefully determine the appropriate pace of shrinking its balance sheet, the BOJ is likely to ease the pace in the reduction of bond purchases from next spring.”

Federal Reserve decision ahead

The USD/JPY exchange rate will also react to activity in the United States. First, the statistics agency will publish the latest retail sales, industrial, and manufacturing production data on Tuesday. These numbers will provide more color on the impact of tariffs on the economy.

Second, the pair will react to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Economists expect the bank to leave rates unchanged as officials have signaled in the past few months.

The bank’s officials are mostly concerned that Donald Trump’s tariffs will stimulate inflation. US inflation data released last week showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May.

Therefore, the Fed decision will irk Trump, who has pressured Jerome Powell to cut interest rates by 1%. He believes that higher rates were putting the US at a disadvantage against Europe and China, where they remain at 2% and 3%, respectively.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months as the US dollar index crash accelerated. It dropped from a high of 158.85 on January 10 to 144.25 today.

The pair has remained below the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Dropping below these averages is a sign that bears are in control for now.

The USD/JPY exchange rate has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are about to converge. In most cases, this convergence often leads to a bullish or bearish breakout.

Therefore, with the Fed and BoJ decisions coming up, there are odds that it will hav a breakout. The key support and resistance levels to watch are at 142 and 146.

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Stocks

Asian markets open: positive start for Nikkei; Sensex in spotlight as oil tops $75

Asian stock markets started the trading week with a largely positive tone on Monday, though investors remained on high alert, carefully assessing the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran alongside a fresh batch of economic data from China.

While the geopolitical situation fueled a jump in oil prices, most regional equity indices managed to find some upward momentum. Indian benchmarks, including the Sensex, are also in sharp focus.

The weekend saw a continuation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, with both sides exchanging strikes.

This volatile backdrop sent oil prices higher and saw gold rally as investors sought refuge in traditional safe-haven assets while global equity markets had previously slid.

Despite this, Asian markets on Monday morning appeared to be trying to look past the immediate geopolitical flare-up, at least in early trading.

Adding to the complex picture, China released several key economic data points. Retail sales in May provided a bright spot, jumping 6.4% from the previous year.

However, industrial output growth slowed to 5.8% year-on-year. Investors kept a close watch on Chinese markets as they digested these figures.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were both reported to be flat in choppy early trade.

Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed a solid 0.96%, while the broader Topix index advanced 0.58%.

In South Korea, the Kospi index gained 0.62%, and the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.36%, also experiencing some volatility.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.26%.

Indian markets on edge

Benchmark Indian stock indices, the Sensex and Nifty, are a key focus on Monday, June 16.

The geopolitical situation took a concerning turn as Iran reportedly informed mediators Oman and Qatar that it was not open to negotiating a ceasefire while under Israeli attack.

Reuters reported that Iran also stated it did not seek US involvement to broker a ceasefire.

This news contributed to Brent crude oil prices soaring above the $75 a barrel mark.

Adding to the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump suggested that the fighting may continue before any deal between Iran and Israel is reached.

Indicating a potentially positive start for Indian equities despite these headwinds, Gift Nifty was trading 51.60 points, or 0.21 percent, higher at 24,779.

US markets: futures up after Friday’s sell-off

US equity futures moved up during early Asian trading hours, suggesting some stabilization after a sharp sell-off on Wall Street last Friday.

The previous session’s decline in the US was a direct reaction to the Israel-Iran attacks, which pushed energy prices higher and added another layer of complication at a time of already heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 769.83 points, or 1.79%, to end at 42,197.79. The S&P 500 dropped 1.13% to close at 5,976.97, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.30% to settle at 19,406.83.

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Stocks

Israel-Iran conflict sends Middle East oil shipping costs higher

Worries over potential disruptions stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict are impacting the oil shipping industry.

The costs associated with chartering tankers to transport oil from the Middle East to Asia have risen, leading to a slowdown in ship bookings, according to a Reuters report.

Tensions in the Middle East escalated last week after Israel carried out strikes in Iran. Tehran reportedly retaliated with strikes of its own.

The TD3 benchmark rate, which governs the cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) for crude oil shipments from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) to Japan, experienced a dramatic surge on Friday.

Data from LSEG indicates that this global benchmark rate escalated by more than 20% following the emergence of heightened regional tensions.

The significant increase underscores the immediate and substantial impact geopolitical instability can have on global shipping costs, particularly for critical commodities like oil.

The rise in TD3 rates suggests that shipowners are factoring in increased risk premiums due to the current climate, potentially leading to higher freight costs for oil importers in key Asian markets such as Japan.

According to a shipbroker, the MEG-Japan rate for crude remained stable at approximately W55 on the Worldscale industry measure on Monday.

Cautious approach

Traders, shipbrokers, and charterers adopted a wait-and-watch approach, limiting further increases in freight rates.

The shipping industry’s cautious stance prevailed even though market participants did not anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route.

“Fixing on Friday from the region all but came to a standstill. Physical marks may therefore not be indicative. Ships inside the gulf are still looking for outbound charters,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage, was quoted as saying in the report.

But the situation remains dynamic, and we expect to hear more on market open today,

Freight rates are subject to escalation and potential Iranian action concerning the Strait of Hormuz, according to Emril Jamil, senior analyst for crude and fuel oil at LSEG Oil Research.

Approximately 18 million to 19 million barrels of oil and oil products traverse the Strait of Hormuz waterway daily, connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

“We have noted a minor increase in freight rates so far, but expect them to rise further as the week progresses,” according to Sentosa Shipbrokers.

War risk premium

Emril Jamil of LSEG added:

The war risk premium is expected to remain high in the near-term given the continued exchange of tensions between the two countries.

This will exponentially rise if other Middle East oil and gas infrastructure are attacked.

Additional attacks could drive cargo insurance premiums up by $3 to $8 per barrel.

Before the conflict, freight rates for shipping approximately 90,000 tons of clean products (gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel) from the Middle East to markets west of the Suez Canal were estimated at $3.3 million to $3.5 million, according to the Reuters report.

New offer levels are currently unavailable.

According to the report, some brokers are already indicating market levels of $4.5 million.

Sentosa shipbrokers noted that several shipowners are withholding vessels for Gulf routes pending clarity on the situation.

This could lead to increased opportunities for voyages from the Far East to west of Suez and from northwest India.

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Stocks

Europe markets open: Stoxx 600 gains 0.15% as oil sector rises amid Mideast tensions

European stock markets started the trading week on a cautiously optimistic note Monday, with major indices posting modest gains in early dealings.

This slight rebound comes after a volatile end to last week, as investors continue to closely monitor the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and the resulting impact on global oil prices.

Shortly after the opening bell, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.15%.

National bourses also reflected this guarded optimism: the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.27%, while both France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX were trading approximately 0.35% higher.

This marks an initial recovery from the negative sentiment that gripped markets on Friday when news of direct airstrikes between Israel and Iran first broke, stoking fears of a protracted and potentially devastating conflict in the Middle East.

A key driver for the early gains in Europe was the performance of oil and gas stocks.

This sector on the Stoxx 600 was up 1.1%, directly benefiting from a significant spike in crude oil prices triggered by the heightened geopolitical risk.

Oil prices remain volatile as Middle East tensions simmer

Crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster as traders react to the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.

As of 7:43 a.m. London time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 0.7% to $73.50 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.46% higher at $74.57 per barrel.

This follows a dramatic surge on Friday, when oil prices closed more than 7% higher – marking the biggest single-day move since March 2022.

The spike was a direct consequence of Israel launching a wave of airstrikes on Iran, which Israel stated were targeted at Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its senior military leadership.

Over the course of last week, US crude oil jumped a total of 13% and saw a further 3% rise on Sunday.

Adding to the tensions, Iranian state media reported on Saturday that Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles had struck the South Pars gas field in southern Iran.

Paris air show opens under a cloud

As the global aerospace industry convenes for this week’s prestigious Paris Air Show, the chief of Airbus anticipates a more subdued environment for commercial aircraft orders compared to previous years.

Rising defense concerns and the shadow cast by last week’s deadly Air India crash are expected to influence the tone of the event.

“We are all under this… the consequences, the impact of the accident of Air India. And obviously that’s a bad situation to come into an air show, which is supposed to be something positive,” Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau.

Despite these somber notes, Faury maintained that “the momentum in the industry is very strong.”

He acknowledged that the 2023 Paris show—Europe’s largest aviation industry event, held biannually, alternating with the UK’s Farnborough Airshow—was “exceptional” as it followed a four-year hiatus due to the pandemic.

Nevertheless, he told CNBC he still expects to see “important” orders at this year’s event.

Faury also highlighted a significant shift in focus towards security and defense.

“We see also very different situation when it comes to security and defense, and it’s going to be a show where a lot of international delegations will be present,” he added, suggesting that defense procurement will likely be a prominent theme.

Aviation consultancy IBA has predicted that manufacturers could see between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders during the show, a notable decrease from the approximately 1,300 orders placed in 2023.

Orders at last year’s Farnborough Airshow were also notably weaker, as ongoing supply chain challenges continue to plague the aerospace industry.

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World News

Could the Air India Ahmedabad crash derail its turbulent revival?

Air India’s long-awaited turnaround, spearheaded by the Tata Group, has encountered a serious setback after the fatal crash of AI171 on Thursday that killed all but one of the 242 passengers and crew on board.

The accident, which has drawn global attention and prompted a regulatory investigation, threatens to derail the national carrier’s ongoing efforts to reclaim its reputation and modernize operations after years of decline.

How Air India suffered losses for years

Once the pride of India’s aviation industry, Air India has struggled with chronic inefficiency, poor service standards, and mounting debt since the early 2000s.

A troubled merger with Indian Airlines in 2007 only compounded its woes, leading to operational disarray, labor disputes, and a steady erosion of market share.

The airline remained heavily reliant on government bailouts for survival.

Between 2012 and 2020, the Indian government pumped billions of rupees into the carrier, yet it failed to stem the bleeding.

By the time Tata Sons took control of Air India in 2022, the airline’s market share had eroded to around 12%, with its brand and morale in disrepair.

Tata Group steps in with a revival plan

In a landmark move, the Tata Group acquired Air India in January 2022 for $2.4 billion (₹18,000 crore), marking the airline’s return to its original founders after nearly seven decades of state ownership.

The takeover was widely seen as a critical turning point for the struggling airline.

Since then, Tata Group has unveiled a multi-pronged plan to revitalize the carrier, including a massive fleet modernization drive, improvements in customer service, and an ambitious plan to consolidate its four airline brands — Air India, Air India Express, Vistara, and AirAsia India — into two main units focused on full-service and low-cost travel.

A $70 billion deal for 470 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing — one of the largest in aviation history — signalled Tata’s commitment to building a world-class airline capable of competing with global giants.

Air India also invested in overhauling its cabin interiors, digital platforms, and ground operations, alongside aggressive hiring and re-training efforts.

In recent months, early signs of improvement were becoming visible.

On-time performance improved, customer complaints declined, and brand perception began to recover.

Losses narrowed significantly in the 2023–24 financial year, falling 61% to ₹44.4 billion.

Analysts projected that with sustained efforts, Air India could regain profitability within five years and reclaim a stronger presence on international routes

The crash and its potential fallout

Although investigators have not yet established the cause of the crash, and there is no immediate evidence pointing to maintenance or operational lapses, the reputational impact on Air India could be severe.

Experts warn that perceptions of safety are vital for any airline seeking a global footprint, and the crash has already triggered an outpouring of passenger complaints.

Moreover, the financial implications of the crash — from potential lawsuits, insurance claims, and compensation to affected families — could strain the airline’s already tight revival budget.

Air India has been focused on its rebrand, rather than addressing core issues like broken seats and maintenance practices, Mark Martin, founder of Martin Consulting, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Friday.

Those issues “should have been the priority,” he said.

On Friday, India’s aviation regulator the Directorate General of Civil Aviation ordered Air India to carry out additional maintenance actions on its fleet of Boeing 787-8/9 aircraft equipped with General Electric’s GEnx engines with immediate effect.

Pakistani airspace closure has also compounded woes

Meanwhile, other challenges are mounting.

The continued closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian carriers has extended flying times on long-haul routes, increasing operational costs.

Earlier this month, Air India CEO Campbell Wilson acknowledged that such constraints posed headwinds to the airline’s path back to profitability.

As the investigation into the crash unfolds, the Tata Group faces a critical moment.

“This is a difficult day for all of us at Air India,” CEO Campbell Wilson said in recorded remarks.

“Our efforts now are focused entirely on the needs of our passengers, crew members, their families and loved ones,” he said.

Its response — in terms of transparency, accountability, and operational review — will be watched closely not just by regulators, but also by the global flying public.

For an airline trying to reclaim its place on the world stage, the next steps may prove decisive.

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World News

S&P 500 is expensive on all valuation metrics, but don’t sweat it – strategist says

US stocks have recovered significantly over the past two months from the initial plunge catalyzed by the Trump administration’s tariff policy. S&P 500 currently sits some 20% above its April low.

However, following the recent rally, the benchmark index looks “statistically expensive relative to its own history on all 20 of the valuation metrics we track,” says Savita Subramaniam – a Bank of America strategist.

S&P 500 is currently trading at about 21 times its estimated earnings for 2025, which is about 35% above its historical average – she added in her latest report.

Should investors be concerned about US stocks?

Despite stretched valuation, however, the equity and quant strategist is not particularly concerned. In fact, comparing today’s benchmark index with its historical self may even be misleading, she argued in her research note.

“This is apples-to-oranges comparison,” Subramaniam noted, adding the composition of the S&P 500 has changed rather significantly over the past few decades.

For example, asset-heavy industrial and manufacturing companies, which once dominated the said index (nearly 70% weightage in 1980), now represent less than 20% of it only.

S&P 500 today is defined by leaner, tech-driven, service-oriented companies that boast stronger balance sheets, lower debt, higher profit margins, and more predictable earnings.

In Subramaniam’s view, these structural shifts justify a higher multiple than past generations of the index might have warranted.

“The quality of earnings today is simply better,” she added, citing the lower earnings volatility and stronger free cash flow generation among U.S. firms.

Do US stocks really deserve a premium?

While some investors may balk at the current valuation, Bank of America made a strong case for the premium tied to the S&P 500 currently compared to other global markets in its research note.

According to Savita Subramaniam, US stocks offer “statistically superior” characteristics versus Asia or Europe, including double the projected long-term growth, higher free cash flow per share, and fewer non-earning companies.

She also highlighted the U.S. market’s “structural advantages,” including its energy independence, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, and “unparalleled liquidity” – all factors she’s convinced support current valuation levels.

Looking ahead, BofA’s sector preferences lean toward communication services, utilities, and technology, which align with its view that quality, growth, and defensiveness will be rewarded in a maturing cycle.

In short, while valuations may be flashing red by historical standards, the investment firm suggests the story is more nuanced, and that higher quality may warrant higher prices.

Investors should note that Wall Street shops have been raising their year-end targets on the S&P 500 index in recent weeks – the latest one being Citi which now sees the benchmark index hittingthe 6,300 level in 2025, indicating potential upside of another 8% from current levels.

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Politics

Uncertainties persist in base metals market regarding US-China trade deal

There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in the base metals market surrounding the implication of the trade deal between the US and China.

Base metal prices reacted unevenly to the US-China tariff agreement. Aluminium prices initially increased, while nickel and copper prices declined.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $9,574 per ton, down 1.3%. Nickel was up 0.2% at $15,136 a ton.

The agreement is beneficial for base metals as it mitigates the risk of renewed conflict escalation, according to Commerzbank AG.

On the other hand, tariffs, particularly those imposed on China, continue to be considerably higher than pre-Trump levels.

This elevated tariff environment is expected to suppress demand within the metals market, which is of paramount importance, the German bank said in a report.

Aluminium prices

“Meanwhile, the rise in aluminium prices could be mainly due to supply concerns,” Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in the report.

LME inventories have been consistently decreasing since last spring.

Simultaneously, whispers suggest significant market concentration, with a handful of companies reportedly holding substantial positions, enabling them to procure vast amounts of aluminum, Nguyen said.

She added:

This could cause difficulties for counterparties given the low inventory levels and lead to a so-called ‘short squeeze’.

Past market trends, mirroring current conditions, have consistently resulted in significant price surges in the metal markets. A notable instance is the dramatic rise in nickel prices observed in 2022.

At the time of writing, the three-month aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $2,485 per ounce, down 1.5% from the previous close.

Iron ore remains under pressure

Iron ore prices continued to face downward pressure, dropping below $95 per ton in Singapore on Friday. This decline occurred ahead of China’s industrial production figures release on Monday.

China’s iron ore imports in May were reported on Monday, showing a 4% year-on-year decrease to 98.1 million tons.

In the first five months of this year, an average of 97.3 million tons were imported. This signifies a decline of approximately 5% when compared to the same period last year.

Meanwhile, China’s steel production figures, based on high-frequency data, suggest a probable year-on-year decline in May.

“While the official figures will not be published until Monday, figures from the industry association point to a decline of 2%,” Nguyen said.

China sales figures

Daily sales figures from the Chinese real estate market continue to show no expected improvement in steel demand from this sector in the near future.

Therefore, a significant decline in real estate sales is anticipated for May, a trend that has persisted into June, according to Commerzbank.

“Weak property sales are therefore likely to continue to weigh on construction starts and thus on steel demand,” Nguyen added in the report.

In view of the ongoing difficulties in the Chinese property market, we continue to see only limited potential for recovery in iron ore prices.

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Politics

Could the Air India Ahmedabad crash derail its turbulent revival?