The Israel-Iran conflict kept tensions high in the Middle East, and its impact on the stock market is becoming more visible now as Indian defence stocks rallied on Tuesday.
The fresh rally in defence stocks came as the tensions between the two countries entered the fifth day on Tuesday.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump indicated that America could also get involved in the Israel-Iran war, escalating the uncertainties around the conflict.
Geopolitical tensions push defence stocks higher
The Nifty India Defence Index surged 1.6% on Tuesday, with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders leading the way with a 5% jump.
Indian government-owned Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Ltd (GRSE) gained 4% on Tuesday.
The stock has remained at all-time high levels, backed by a robust order book and improved expectations amid geopolitical tensions.
Other notable stock movements were witnessed around Data Patterns (India), which rose 3%.
BEML and Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) jumped around 1% to 2% on Tuesday.
Volatility remains the battlefield
The rally in Indian defence stocks mirrors the trajectory of geopolitical tensions, which started with the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
The recent escalation of conflict between India and Pakistan, following ‘Operation Sindoor’, took defence stocks to their all-time highs as investors expected a rise in order volumes.
While speaking with Invezz, Investment research firm GoalFi’s founder, Robin Arya, spoke about the sector trading at lofty valuations, with many stocks priced at 40–60 times forward earnings.
He mentioned the robust domestic procurement pipeline but emphasised that future gains will depend on execution strength and order conversion.
“The Israel-Iran conflict has acted as a fresh catalyst for Indian defence stocks, with the Nifty Defence Index surging 18% in May alone and select names gaining over 30–40%. While valuations are steep, many trading at 40–60x forward earnings however they’re backed by a ₹16 lakh crore domestic procurement pipeline and a ₹3 lakh crore export target by 2029. The sector is in a structural uptrend, but future gains will depend on execution strength and order conversion,” Robin Arya said.
Sensex, Nifty trade in red amid geopolitical risks
As the Israel-Iran conflict entered its 5th day, the Indian stock markets continued to remain under pressure.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened in the red on Tuesday and deepened their morning slump by midday, with the Sensex dropping 252.73 points (0.31%) to 81,543.42 and the Nifty sliding 91 points (0.36%) to 24,855.50.
Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Ultratech Cement, and Sun Pharma were among the top losers on the Sensex, while Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, NTPC, and Adani Ports led the gainers.
The losses reflected persistent selling pressure as investors remained cautious amid ongoing tensions and possible involvement of the United States in the conflict.
US stocks have recovered significantly over the past two months from the initial plunge catalyzed by the Trump administration’s tariff policy. S&P 500 currently sits some 20% above its April low.
However, following the recent rally, the benchmark index looks “statistically expensive relative to its own history on all 20 of the valuation metrics we track,” says Savita Subramaniam – a Bank of America strategist.
S&P 500 is currently trading at about 21 times its estimated earnings for 2025, which is about 35% above its historical average – she added in her latest report.
Should investors be concerned about US stocks?
Despite stretched valuation, however, the equity and quant strategist is not particularly concerned. In fact, comparing today’s benchmark index with its historical self may even be misleading, she argued in her research note.
“This is apples-to-oranges comparison,” Subramaniam noted, adding the composition of the S&P 500 has changed rather significantly over the past few decades.
For example, asset-heavy industrial and manufacturing companies, which once dominated the said index (nearly 70% weightage in 1980), now represent less than 20% of it only.
S&P 500 today is defined by leaner, tech-driven, service-oriented companies that boast stronger balance sheets, lower debt, higher profit margins, and more predictable earnings.
In Subramaniam’s view, these structural shifts justify a higher multiple than past generations of the index might have warranted.
“The quality of earnings today is simply better,” she added, citing the lower earnings volatility and stronger free cash flow generation among U.S. firms.
Do US stocks really deserve a premium?
While some investors may balk at the current valuation, Bank of America made a strong case for the premium tied to the S&P 500 currently compared to other global markets in its research note.
According to Savita Subramaniam, US stocks offer “statistically superior” characteristics versus Asia or Europe, including double the projected long-term growth, higher free cash flow per share, and fewer non-earning companies.
She also highlighted the U.S. market’s “structural advantages,” including its energy independence, the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, and “unparalleled liquidity” – all factors she’s convinced support current valuation levels.
Looking ahead, BofA’s sector preferences lean toward communication services, utilities, and technology, which align with its view that quality, growth, and defensiveness will be rewarded in a maturing cycle.
In short, while valuations may be flashing red by historical standards, the investment firm suggests the story is more nuanced, and that higher quality may warrant higher prices.
Investors should note that Wall Street shops have been raising their year-end targets on the S&P 500 index in recent weeks – the latest one being Citi which now sees the benchmark index hittingthe 6,300 level in 2025, indicating potential upside of another 8% from current levels.
Asian stock markets started the trading week with a largely positive tone on Monday, though investors remained on high alert, carefully assessing the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran alongside a fresh batch of economic data from China.
While the geopolitical situation fueled a jump in oil prices, most regional equity indices managed to find some upward momentum. Indian benchmarks, including the Sensex, are also in sharp focus.
The weekend saw a continuation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, with both sides exchanging strikes.
This volatile backdrop sent oil prices higher and saw gold rally as investors sought refuge in traditional safe-haven assets while global equity markets had previously slid.
Despite this, Asian markets on Monday morning appeared to be trying to look past the immediate geopolitical flare-up, at least in early trading.
Adding to the complex picture, China released several key economic data points. Retail sales in May provided a bright spot, jumping 6.4% from the previous year.
However, industrial output growth slowed to 5.8% year-on-year. Investors kept a close watch on Chinese markets as they digested these figures.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were both reported to be flat in choppy early trade.
Elsewhere in the region, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 climbed a solid 0.96%, while the broader Topix index advanced 0.58%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index gained 0.62%, and the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 0.36%, also experiencing some volatility.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased by 0.26%.
Indian markets on edge
Benchmark Indian stock indices, the Sensex and Nifty, are a key focus on Monday, June 16.
The geopolitical situation took a concerning turn as Iran reportedly informed mediators Oman and Qatar that it was not open to negotiating a ceasefire while under Israeli attack.
Reuters reported that Iran also stated it did not seek US involvement to broker a ceasefire.
This news contributed to Brent crude oil prices soaring above the $75 a barrel mark.
Adding to the uncertainty, US President Donald Trump suggested that the fighting may continue before any deal between Iran and Israel is reached.
Indicating a potentially positive start for Indian equities despite these headwinds, Gift Nifty was trading 51.60 points, or 0.21 percent, higher at 24,779.
US markets: futures up after Friday’s sell-off
US equity futures moved up during early Asian trading hours, suggesting some stabilization after a sharp sell-off on Wall Street last Friday.
The previous session’s decline in the US was a direct reaction to the Israel-Iran attacks, which pushed energy prices higher and added another layer of complication at a time of already heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 769.83 points, or 1.79%, to end at 42,197.79. The S&P 500 dropped 1.13% to close at 5,976.97, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.30% to settle at 19,406.83.
European stock markets started the trading week on a cautiously optimistic note Monday, with major indices posting modest gains in early dealings.
This slight rebound comes after a volatile end to last week, as investors continue to closely monitor the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and the resulting impact on global oil prices.
Shortly after the opening bell, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.15%.
National bourses also reflected this guarded optimism: the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.27%, while both France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX were trading approximately 0.35% higher.
This marks an initial recovery from the negative sentiment that gripped markets on Friday when news of direct airstrikes between Israel and Iran first broke, stoking fears of a protracted and potentially devastating conflict in the Middle East.
A key driver for the early gains in Europe was the performance of oil and gas stocks.
This sector on the Stoxx 600 was up 1.1%, directly benefiting from a significant spike in crude oil prices triggered by the heightened geopolitical risk.
Oil prices remain volatile as Middle East tensions simmer
Crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster as traders react to the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict.
As of 7:43 a.m. London time, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up 0.7% to $73.50 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.46% higher at $74.57 per barrel.
This follows a dramatic surge on Friday, when oil prices closed more than 7% higher – marking the biggest single-day move since March 2022.
The spike was a direct consequence of Israel launching a wave of airstrikes on Iran, which Israel stated were targeted at Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its senior military leadership.
Over the course of last week, US crude oil jumped a total of 13% and saw a further 3% rise on Sunday.
Adding to the tensions, Iranian state media reported on Saturday that Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles had struck the South Pars gas field in southern Iran.
Paris air show opens under a cloud
As the global aerospace industry convenes for this week’s prestigious Paris Air Show, the chief of Airbus anticipates a more subdued environment for commercial aircraft orders compared to previous years.
Rising defense concerns and the shadow cast by last week’s deadly Air India crash are expected to influence the tone of the event.
“We are all under this… the consequences, the impact of the accident of Air India. And obviously that’s a bad situation to come into an air show, which is supposed to be something positive,” Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau.
Despite these somber notes, Faury maintained that “the momentum in the industry is very strong.”
He acknowledged that the 2023 Paris show—Europe’s largest aviation industry event, held biannually, alternating with the UK’s Farnborough Airshow—was “exceptional” as it followed a four-year hiatus due to the pandemic.
Nevertheless, he told CNBC he still expects to see “important” orders at this year’s event.
Faury also highlighted a significant shift in focus towards security and defense.
“We see also very different situation when it comes to security and defense, and it’s going to be a show where a lot of international delegations will be present,” he added, suggesting that defense procurement will likely be a prominent theme.
Aviation consultancy IBA has predicted that manufacturers could see between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders during the show, a notable decrease from the approximately 1,300 orders placed in 2023.
Orders at last year’s Farnborough Airshow were also notably weaker, as ongoing supply chain challenges continue to plague the aerospace industry.
In May, China saw a continued increase in crude stock builds, despite a decline in seaborne imports.
Stockpiling rate exceeded 1 million barrels per day in May for the second-consecutive month, Vortexa said in its latest analysis.
In May, China’s seaborne crude imports dropped to below 10 million barrels per day, an 8% decrease from April and a 3% decline year-on-year.
This reduction in volume affected nearly all major suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, and Iran, the shiptracking agency said.
Decline in refining rate
Vortexa’s calculations indicated a 3% year-on-year drop in China’s implied refinery runs, bringing them in line with the three-year seasonal average.
This decline suggests lower average utilisation rates, particularly when considering the significant capacity increases observed in recent years.
The main run rate decline is from independent teapot refiners, who are facing delayed spring maintenance this year.
While their refining margins briefly improved in April, they weakened again in May—contributing to reduced processing activity.
Source: Vortexa
Independent teapot refiners are experiencing a decline in their main run rate, primarily due to delayed spring maintenance, according to Emma Li, senior market analyst at Vortexa.
Despite a brief improvement in April, China’s refining margins weakened again in May, leading to reduced processing activity.
May saw Chinese oil majors experience significant offline capacity due to scheduled maintenance peaking during the month.
Throughput is likely to rebound in June, as several state-run refineries are expected to complete their turnarounds in late May and early June.
“That said, before imports rise meaningfully, China’s stockbuilds could moderate in June, before potentially picking up again in July–August, as cheaper OPEC barrels may arrive after the recent policy adjustments,” Li said.
Lower intake of sanctioned barrels
From April to May, China’s imports of discounted crude from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela decreased from their record highs, indicating a decline in teapot demand.
Even with anticipated widespread maintenance continuing into July, Shandong’s ample onshore inventories enabled teapots to reduce their spot crude purchases, particularly of Iranian oil.
Source: Vortexa
In May, China’s imports of Iranian crude oil fell by almost 30% month-over-month, dropping to less than 1.1 million barrels per day, Vortexa data showed.
This figure is also below the 2024 average of around 1.4 million barrels per day.
“Still, teapots will continue to depend on discounted barrels to preserve margins,” Li added.
With Indian refiners competing for Russian crude—both from western-facing ports and the Far East —Iranian supply remains a key feedstock for China’s independents.
Slowdown in US-sanctioned terminal recover
A temporary operational slowdown at Dongying Port in northern Shandong contributed to the drop in Iranian crude imports in May.
The slowdown occurred after one of the port’s crude terminals was sanctioned by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in early May.
After approximately a week of disruption, discharge operations at the port gradually recovered.
In May, the port handled over 400,000 barrels per day of crude imports, a decrease compared to the preceding two months, which saw around 520,000 barrels a day, according to Vortexa.
While other Shandong ports may increase STS transfers to non-sanctioned tankers due to OFAC’s latest designation, tightening their compliance protocols, Dongying is expected to remain a primary entry point for Iranian and Russian crude.
Now under sanctions, Dongying is likely to continue accommodating sanctioned tankers.
Source: Vortexa
Offshore North Shandong, at least 12 Aframax tankers, laden with Iranian or Russian crude, were seen at anchor as of June 9, Vortexa data showed.
These vessels are likely awaiting discharge at Dongying.
Diverging demand
Chinese crude oil demand is expected to recover in June.
The anticipated increase is due to the completion of maintenance activities and a rise in transport fuel consumption, driven by the upcoming summer holidays, planting, and fishing seasons, Li added.
“However, continued weakness in other consumer sectors, such as construction and manufacturing, is expected to keep overall refinery runs flat-to-below year-ago levels.”
Chinese onshore crude inventories hit a four-year high of over 1.07 billion barrels by June 8, reducing immediate stockpiling urgency, Vortexa data showed.
However, significant spare capacity allows oil majors to resume builds when market conditions are favorable, Li noted.
Unlike their international counterparts, teapot refiners operate without financial hedging tools and must procure the most affordable feedstock on the spot market.
Li added:
Although persistently weak domestic margins may dampen overall buying appetite, they also incentivise risk-taking, even in the face of ongoing supply-side uncertainty.
Worries over potential disruptions stemming from the Israel-Iran conflict are impacting the oil shipping industry.
The costs associated with chartering tankers to transport oil from the Middle East to Asia have risen, leading to a slowdown in ship bookings, according to a Reuters report.
The TD3 benchmark rate, which governs the cost of chartering a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) for crude oil shipments from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) to Japan, experienced a dramatic surge on Friday.
Data from LSEG indicates that this global benchmark rate escalated by more than 20% following the emergence of heightened regional tensions.
The rise in TD3 rates suggests that shipowners are factoring in increased risk premiums due to the current climate, potentially leading to higher freight costs for oil importers in key Asian markets such as Japan.
According to a shipbroker, the MEG-Japan rate for crude remained stable at approximately W55 on the Worldscale industry measure on Monday.
Cautious approach
Traders, shipbrokers, and charterers adopted a wait-and-watch approach, limiting further increases in freight rates.
The shipping industry’s cautious stance prevailed even though market participants did not anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial trade route.
“Fixing on Friday from the region all but came to a standstill. Physical marks may therefore not be indicative. Ships inside the gulf are still looking for outbound charters,” Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage, was quoted as saying in the report.
But the situation remains dynamic, and we expect to hear more on market open today,
Freight rates are subject to escalation and potential Iranian action concerning the Strait of Hormuz, according to Emril Jamil, senior analyst for crude and fuel oil at LSEG Oil Research.
Approximately 18 million to 19 million barrels of oil and oil products traverse the Strait of Hormuz waterway daily, connecting the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
“We have noted a minor increase in freight rates so far, but expect them to rise further as the week progresses,” according to Sentosa Shipbrokers.
War risk premium
Emril Jamil of LSEG added:
The war risk premium is expected to remain high in the near-term given the continued exchange of tensions between the two countries.
This will exponentially rise if other Middle East oil and gas infrastructure are attacked.
Additional attacks could drive cargo insurance premiums up by $3 to $8 per barrel.
Before the conflict, freight rates for shipping approximately 90,000 tons of clean products (gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel) from the Middle East to markets west of the Suez Canal were estimated at $3.3 million to $3.5 million, according to the Reuters report.
New offer levels are currently unavailable.
According to the report, some brokers are already indicating market levels of $4.5 million.
Sentosa shipbrokers noted that several shipowners are withholding vessels for Gulf routes pending clarity on the situation.
This could lead to increased opportunities for voyages from the Far East to west of Suez and from northwest India.
The USD/JPY exchange rate could be on the verge of a big move after forming a symmetrical triangle ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions. The pair was trading at 144 on Monday, a few points above the year-to-date low of 139.95.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD/JPY pair will be in focus this week as the BoJ delivers its interest rate decision on Tuesday.
This will be a notable meeting because it comes as Japan’s bond market faces major challenges. The ten-year yield recently peaked at 1.588%, where it formed a double-top pattern with a neckline at 1.06%. A double-top pattern points to more downside, which explains why the yield has pulled back to 1.45%.
Economists expect the Bank of Japan to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, where they have been since January. It has already hiked interest rates three times, with the current level being the highest it has been in decades.
The main reason why the bank will not cut interest rates is that the country’s economy is slowing as exports drop. A recent data showed that the Japanese economy remained in a technical recession in the first quarter as exports dropped.
Hiking interest rates in a period when the economy is slowing is risky because they make it more expensive for individuals and companies to borrow.
At the same time, the BoJ is still dealing with high inflation in the country. Recent data showed that the core consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.5% in April from 3.2% in the previous month.
The headline consumer price index (CPI) also jumped to 3.6% as it moved further away from the bank’s target of 2.0%.
While the BoJ will leave interest rates intact, it may also decide to taper its bond purchases at a slower pace. The bank intends to taper its bond purchases to reduce its footprint in the market. In a note, an analyst said:
“To carefully determine the appropriate pace of shrinking its balance sheet, the BOJ is likely to ease the pace in the reduction of bond purchases from next spring.”
Federal Reserve decision ahead
The USD/JPY exchange rate will also react to activity in the United States. First, the statistics agency will publish the latest retail sales, industrial, and manufacturing production data on Tuesday. These numbers will provide more color on the impact of tariffs on the economy.
Second, the pair will react to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. Economists expect the bank to leave rates unchanged as officials have signaled in the past few months.
The bank’s officials are mostly concerned that Donald Trump’s tariffs will stimulate inflation. US inflation datareleased last week showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May.
Therefore, the Fed decision will irk Trump, who has pressured Jerome Powell to cut interest rates by 1%. He believes that higher rates were putting the US at a disadvantage against Europe and China, where they remain at 2% and 3%, respectively.
The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has been in a strong sell-off in the past few months as the US dollar index crash accelerated. It dropped from a high of 158.85 on January 10 to 144.25 today.
The pair has remained below the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Dropping below these averages is a sign that bears are in control for now.
The USD/JPY exchange rate has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are about to converge. In most cases, this convergence often leads to a bullish or bearish breakout.
Therefore, with the Fed and BoJ decisions coming up, there are odds that it will hav a breakout. The key support and resistance levels to watch are at 142 and 146.
During the last two major crypto market booms in 2017 and 2021, stablecoins have been just a footnote.
But now, they’re on the agenda at Amazon and Walmart board meetings. They are central to new financial regulations and legislations.
Some of the world’s biggest retailers, tech giants, and payments companies are betting that stablecoins will not just complement money, but replace how it moves.
This is a development that’s unfolding way quicker than initially thought, and the end goal is to rewrite the rules of global commerce.
Is the payments system broken?
Yes. And not in abstract terms but in hard numbers.
International B2B payments still take 3 to 7 days to settle. That’s before factoring in delays from compliance checks, bank holidays, or mismatched banking hours across time zones.
Costs are the second. Moving $1,000 across borders can incur $14 to $150 in fees, depending on the corridor. Global remittances average a 6.62% fee, according to 2024 data.
Then there’s the architecture. A single cross-border payment can involve five or more intermediaries.
The sender’s bank, the acquiring bank, correspondent banks, FX providers, and clearing systems like SWIFT. Each one takes a cut and introduces new points of failure.
In emerging markets, even accessing US dollars is difficult or restricted.
This system wasn’t built for a connected world. It was designed in the 20th century to move paper, not software. And it shows. In a world where files move instantly, money doesn’t.
That gap isn’t just inefficient but it’s become a drag on economic potential.
Are stablecoins really just ‘crypto for payments’?
Stablecoins are digital tokens tied to fiat currencies, usually the US dollar.
The pitch is that they offer the stability of cash, with the speed and programmability of software.
But their real promise lies not in theory, but in numbers.
Why the sudden race? Because the economics are clear.
Credit card processors charge merchants 2 to 3.5% per transaction. For a retailer with $100 billion in revenue, that’s up to $3.5 billion annually that’s lost to payments infrastructure.
Stablecoins change that. They allow merchants to issue their own digital dollars, keep transactions internal, settle instantly, and eliminate fees entirely.
These aren’t vague ambitions. PayPal’s stablecoin (PYUSD) has already reached a $1 billion market cap.
Shopify merchants now accept USDC. And the USDC issuer, Circle, went public this month and hit a $30 billion valuation in days. The market is voting with its feet.
The most powerful use case for stablecoins isn’t consumer payments. The real use case is inside the financial stack, where global businesses move trillions in capital every day.
B2B payments are large in volume, frequent in nature, and notoriously inefficient. Global B2B payments exceed $125 trillion annually.
Even a 1% efficiency gain is worth more than the entire annual profit of some major banks.
Those savings don’t even account for the knock-on effects: better cash flow visibility, fewer reconciliation headaches, and lower working capital needs. At scale, speed becomes strategy.
Stablecoins aren’t just cheaper. They’re structurally better suited to how businesses operate today. They are real-time, borderless, and software-based.
That’s why the biggest change is starting in B2B. It’s where the pain is highest and the payoff is immediate.
A favorable regulatory environment
For years, the biggest roadblock to stablecoin adoption was regulatory uncertainty. But positive signs are emerging thanks to two major bills: GENIUS and STABLE.
These bills would require stablecoin issuers to hold 1:1 reserves in high-quality liquid assets, like 90-day Treasury bills.
Issuers with more than $50 billion in tokens would need to submit regular audits and reserve disclosures.
Interest-bearing stablecoins would likely be banned, to prevent competition with money market funds or bank deposits.
Circle already complies with most of these standards. PayPal too. Even Tether, historically criticized for opacity, now publishes real-time reserve reports.
As regulation tightens, it will likely drive consolidation and credibility.
Banks, by contrast, only keep a fraction of deposits as cash and lend out the rest. Stablecoins with full reserve backing may soon be viewed as safer than traditional bank deposits, especially in countries with weaker institutions.
Still, stablecoins do carry systemic risks. A BIS paper found that $3.5 billion in redemptions could raise short-term Treasury yields by 8 basis points. That’s roughly equivalent to a small-scale central bank action.
A mass move from bank deposits to stablecoins would strain traditional banking models and shift liquidity to non-bank entities.
How stablecoins might rewrite finance
This is no longer a question of “if” or even “when.” The migration has begun. The question now is scale and who controls the rails.
As of Q1 2025, stablecoin circulation amounted to $208 billion, with Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) accounting for 90% of that.
But Bernstein Research forecasts that this number could 13x up to $2.8 trillion in just 3 years due to a real use case.
Retailers want to protect their margins. Treasury departments want liquidity. Startups want speed. Consumers want simplicity.
Stablecoins deliver all of it, and the supporting infrastructure is maturing fast.
This isn’t about Bitcoin or speculation anymore. It’s about programmable dollars moving in real time, on open networks, at near-zero cost.
The future of money is not a new currency. It’s a better transmission system.
And that future is being built. Not by governments or even risky crypto projects.
It’s being built by the largest global retailers and payment processors.
The crypto market was mixed on Monday morning, with most tokens being in the green as traders focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Bitcoin’s price held steady above $105,000, while Ethereum’s was slightly above $2,500.
This article provides a forecast for some of the most active cryptocurrencies, including Polyhedra Network (ZKJ), Marinade Finance (MNDE), and Useless Coin (USELESS).
Polyhedra Network was the worst-performing tokens on Monday morning as it crashed by over 83%. ZKJ tumbled by over 83%, erasing over $300 million in value, mirroring the Mantra price crasha few months ago.
The developers insisted that the network’s fundamentals were strong, citing its “community” and its technology. They attributed the plunge to a series of abnormal on-chain transactions on the ZKJ/KOGE pair.
In another post, Binance, the biggest crypto exchange, attributed the crash to large holders removing on-chain liquidity, leading to a surge of liquidations.
Binance is aware that ZKJ and KOGE have experienced significant price volatilities and our initial findings indicate the developments were a result of large holders removing on-chain liquidity, and liquidation cascade in the market.
The ZKJ price crash may attract traders buying the dip because it has become a fairly cheap one. However, the reality is that, as Mantra showed, catching a knife can be dangerous.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the token continues crashing as most holders dump and buyers remain in the sidelines
Another scenario is where the token stages a triple-digit rebound in the near term. Such a move, which Mantra also did, would be a dead-cat bounce, which is also known as a bull trap. A dead-cat bounce is a situation where an asset in a free fall experiences a brief comeback and then resumes the downtrend.
The Marinade Finance (MNDE) token price bottomed at $0.073 in March and April, where it formed a double-bottom pattern with a neckline at $0.1214. A double bottom is one of the most bullish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
The token has then bounced back, reaching a high of $0.1650 as the total value locked (TVL) jumped to over 11 million SOL. Marinade has over 153,619 holders and a stalking yield of 8%. Its rally mirrored that of Jito, the biggest liquid staking platform on Solana.
MNDE price has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have all pointed upwards.
Therefore, more MNDE price gains will be confirmed if the token moves above the important resistance point at $0.1760. Such a move will push it higher, potentially to the key resistance level at $0.2350, its highest swing on December 9.
Useless Coin is a fairly new, fast-growing meme coin on the Solana network. Its token has surged by over 1,500% from its lowest point this year, bringing its market capitalization to over $84 million.
The four-hour chart shows that the Useless Coin price surged to a record high of $0.097 during the weekend and then retreated to $0.085 today.
Useless price formed a cup-and-handle pattern whose upper side was at $0.04734 and the lower side was at $0.0051. A C&H pattern mostly leads to more upside over time.
In this case, the token had a depth of about 90%, and measuring the same distance from its upper side gives a target of $0.090. Therefore, while more gains are possible, the token will likely pull back in the next few days. If this happens, the next Useless Coin price target to watch will be at $0.0473, down by 45% from the current level.
Hyperliquid price surged to a record high this month, making it one of the best-performing tokens in the market. HYPE token bottomed at $9.3860 in April, up by 370% from its lowest point in April.
This surge has brought its market capitalization to over $14 billion, higher than Uniswap’s $4.7 billion and PancakeSwap’s $753 million. It has become the 11th biggest cryptocurrency, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) jumping to over $42 billion.
Why Hyperliquid price has jumped
Hyperliquid token price has jumped because of the emerging ecosystem growth, which makes it one of the fastest-growing crypto projects.
Data shows that Hypeliquid’s EVM product handled over 7.9 million transactions, a 146% 30-day increase. This surge happened as the number of active addresses in the ecosystem jumped by 125% to 191,416, and its network fees jumped by 727% to $1.24 million.
Its 30-day transaction growth made it the third-fastest growing blockchain after BNB Chain and Goat.
More data shows that Hyperliquid has become the 6th-biggest player in the stablecoin industry with over $3.73 billion in stablecoins. It has overtaken popular layer-1 and layer-2 networks like Arbitrum, Avalanche, Aptos, Sui, Stellar, and Cardano.
Hyperliquid stablecoin market cap | Source: DeFi Llama
Hyperliquid also owns Hyperdrive, a platform offering stable money market fund that has attracted over $50.4 million in assets. Its HyperLend solution has grown its TVL to over $356 million, up from $15k in March this year.
Further, HYPE price has jumped because of the ongoing demand from income-focused investors. StakingRewards data shows that HYPE has become the fifth most staked token in crypto after Ethereum, Solana, Sui, and BNB Chain, with a staking market cap of over $17.7 billion. These investors are making a 2.28% staking reward.
Hypeliquid Perps volume is soaring
Meanwhile, the decentralized perpetual exchange is dominating the crypto industry. It has almost 500,000 active users and has handled over $1.6 trillion in volume since inception.
Hyperliquid’s total deposits jumped to over $80 billion. This growth happened because of its lower fees compared to other perpetual exchanges and the fact that it is multi-chain, enabling traders to trade all types of tokens, including Bitcoin.
Hyperliquid has also become popular because of its leverage, which enables traders to allocate up to 40x leverage. While leverage is a good thing, it can lead to higher losses. Just recently, James Wynn lost over $1 billion trading on Hyperliquid.
DeFi Llama data reveals that Hyperliquid handled over $4.2 billion worth of transactions, equivalent to 53% of the total volume of over $7.79 billion. For example, Aster handled over $1.2 billion, while Jupiter processed $415 million.
The same trajectory has happened in the last 30 days, where Hyperliquid’s volume jumped to £$246 billion.
The daily chart shows that the HYPE price bottomed at $9.3860, its lowest swing since April this year. It has then bounced back, moving to a record high of $43.95 earlier this month.
HYPE token moved above the important resistance level at $35.13, its highest point in December last year. This price was the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation signal.
Hyperliquid price has moved above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). A move above that level points to more gains in the long term.
Therefore, the token will likely continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance at $50. A drop below the support at $35 will invalidate the bullish Hyperliquid price forecast.
