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In a major legislative breakthrough for the cryptocurrency industry, the United States Senate on Tuesday passed the GENIUS Act, the first federal law to set guardrails for US dollar-pegged stablecoins.

The bill passed with a 68-30 vote, marking a critical step toward establishing a regulated framework for the issuance and oversight of digital dollars by private companies.

The bill still needs approval from the Republican-controlled House, but its Senate passage marks a pivotal moment — not only for stablecoin technology, but also for the growing political influence backing it.

What is the GENIUS stablecoin bill?

The GENIUS Act — formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act — introduces comprehensive federal standards for the stablecoin sector.

Key provisions include full reserve requirements, mandatory monthly audits, and strict anti-money laundering protocols.

“The GENIUS Act will protect consumers, enable responsible innovation, and safeguard the dominance of the US dollar,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-NY, one of the sponsors of the bill, in a statement.

By creating a clear regulatory path, the bill broadens participation to include banks, fintech firms, and large retailers aiming to issue stablecoins or integrate them into payment systems.

Its passage also grants a federal seal of legitimacy to a critical segment of the digital asset ecosystem, likely encouraging further adoption by traditional financial institutions.

The momentum is already evident—Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin and the industry’s second-largest player, recently went public, with shares soaring nearly 170% on debut.

John Wu, president of crypto firm Ava Labs, called the bill a foundational moment for the industry.

“This is a foundation for legitimizing stablecoins and embedding them into the global network of money movement,” Wu said in a statement.

Source: World Economic Forum

How the GENIUS stablecoin bill affects stablecoin issuers?

The GENIUS Act is expected to redraw the stablecoin map, giving US-regulated players such as Circle (USDC), PayPal USD, and future bank-issued tokens a competitive edge over offshore issuers like Tether.

“Tether’s exclusion from US financial rails could lead to a reshuffle in stablecoin dominance,” said Himanshu Maradiya, Founder of crypto exchange CIFDAQ.

“Expect US-based stablecoins to gain market share and deeper institutional use. Investors should watch for new GENIUS-compliant entrants, as regulatory clarity fuels capital inflows into compliant DeFi and stablecoin infrastructure, key pillars for the next phase of crypto’s mainstream adoption,” he said.

The legislation does allow for foreign stablecoins to operate in the US, but only if their home regulatory regimes are deemed equivalent and if they maintain sufficient reserves within US financial institutions.

Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer with $155 billion in circulation, may struggle to meet the new US compliance standards outlined in the GENIUS Act.

The legislation offers a pathway for foreign issuers to operate in the US, but it involves stringent requirements such as equivalent foreign regulation, oversight by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and maintaining adequate reserves in US banks.

Tether must either adapt to these rules or risk losing access to the US market as domestic players gain scale under federal oversight.

Source: The Block

Traditional finance and retail prepare to enter but limits placed on Big Tech

The bill’s passage also opens the door for mainstream adoption.

Shopify, in partnership with Coinbase and Stripe, already enables USDC-powered payments, and Bank of America has signaled interest in stablecoin issuance.

With stablecoin transactions hitting $28 trillion in 2023—surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined, according to Deutsche Bank—the stakes are high.

the GENIUS Act restricts large non-financial tech companies from directly issuing stablecoins unless they collaborate with regulated financial institutions.

While this helps prevent another “Facebook Diem” scenario, critics warn that enforcement and oversight mechanisms remain vague.

Companies will likely be supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, with expectations of further clarity as the bill moves to the House of Representatives.

Bill receives bipartisan support but some criticism persists

Ahead of the 2024 election cycle, a network of crypto-focused Silicon Valley executives and political strategists launched an aggressive push in Washington, forming a series of super PACs that ultimately spent over $130 million to sway tight congressional contests across the country.

The campaign yielded impressive results: candidates backed by these super PACs—spanning both Democrats and Republicans—won 53 out of 58 races.

That effort is now bearing fruit, as 18 Senate Democrats joined Republicans in voting for the GENIUS Act, with only two Republican senators opposing it.

Among Democrats, the legislation gained notable support from a coalition led by Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, despite opposition from some senior figures in the party.

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was among the harshest critics, warning that the bill’s “thin regulation” resembled the lax oversight that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis.

“It’s the same move a second time,” she said. “Why is the industry here asking for regulation? They want the gold star of US government oversight without really having significant oversight.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer also opposed the bill, acknowledging that it had improved during negotiations but arguing it still lacked key anti-corruption safeguards—especially those aimed at preventing Donald Trump and his family from continuing to profit from the cryptocurrency sector.

Democratic lawmakers had initially hoped to address these issues through amendments.

Senate Majority Whip John Thune had assured Democrats their proposed changes would be considered, leading to over 100 suggested modifications.

But many of those concerns remained unresolved by the time the bill reached the Senate floor.

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Crude oil prices remain elevated even after pulling back from the 5-month high hit on Friday. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict is the key bullish factor in the market. Even so, the geopolitical risk premium appears to be already priced in. This includes the lower probability of Iran closing the crucial Strait of Hormuz.  

In the ensuing sessions, the crude oil market will be on a wait-and-see mode as any signs of supply disruptions may have a major impact on the asset’s prices.

Iran-Israel war: Has the crude oil market priced it in?

Late last week, the benchmark of global crude oil – Brent – rallied to the highest level since late January 2025 at $78.46. The surge was triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict, which entered its fifth day on Tuesday. As the two parties trade strikes, the crude oil market is keen on any crude oil supply disruptions that could be brought about by the conflict.

Indeed, it is these concerns that have held Brent crude oil price above the crucial resistance-turned-support zone of $72. On Tuesday, the asset erased some of the losses recorded in the previous session as the market reacts to the fresh wave of attacks.

Explosions and intense air defense fire has been reported in the Iranian capital of Tehran. Similarly, air raid sirens were heard in Tel Aviv. 

Iran is the third-largest producer of crude oil within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Prior to the attacks, the potential easing of US sanctions on Iran would allow more Iranian oil to reenter the market; weighing on the global crude oil prices. However, with the ongoing hostilities, investors are concerned about the possible disruption of oil supply and subsequent surge in prices. 

Interestingly, instability in a region that produces about 25 million bpd has not been sufficient to boost global crude oil prices to $80 per barrel. While the market acknowledges the impact that supply disruptions would have on oil prices, the geopolitical risk premium appears to have already been priced in. This means that for as long as no actual supply disruptions have been reported, price gains may be capped at below January’s level of $80 per barrel. 

The greatest disruption would be if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping chokepoint where about a third of the world’s oil passes through. Granted, Iran may pay a huge price for blocking the seaway, seeing that it heavily relies on it for the free passage of its vessels and goods. The decision would also be counterproductive to its relationship with its major oil consumer – China. 

Besides, hints that Iran may be open to negotiations have further curbed the recent oil price rallying. In regards to a possible ceasefire, the question would be whether Israel would accept the truce?  

Read more: Brent crude oil price forecast after the Israel attack on Iran

OPEC expects lower oil supply growth amid a resilient economy

In addition to the Iran-Israel war, OPEC’s revision of its supply forecast has offered support to crude oil prices. The organization now expects supply from the US and other products outside the broader alliance to grow by 730,000 bpd in 2026 compared to the previous prediction of 800,000 bpd. Amid slower drilling activity and lesser capital spending, it expects US oil production to grow by 210,000 bpd; a revision from its forecast of 280,000 bpd. 

Meanwhile, its demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.29 million bpd in 2025 and 1.28 million bpd in 2026. It bases this steady demand on strong road mobility and air-travel demand. OPEC+ decided to increase oil output by 411,000 bpd for the third month in a row in July. Its next meeting is slated for 6th July as it takes a wait-and-see approach on the ongoing conflicts. 

Brent crude oil price technical analysis

Brent chart by TradingView

Brent oil price remains elevated above the crucial resistance-turned-support zone of 72 even after pulling back from the recent 5-month high. A look at its daily price chart shows the formation of the bullish golden-cross pattern with the short-term 25-day EMA crossing the medium-term 50-day EMA to the upside. 

In the immediate term, the range between the support zone of $73.72 and $76.00 will be worth watching as the market watches the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. Escalation of the war may have the asset rally further to break the resistance of $77.50 and rise beyond. This bullish thesis is valid for as long as the prices hold steady above the crucial zone of $72.

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The ongoing Iran-Israel war has bolstered crude oil and gold prices while weighing on stocks worldwide. However, Bitcoin, often referred to as digital gold, has failed both as a safe haven anda FOMO asset. 

As is often the case, its underwhelming performance has spilled over to other crypto majors. Even so, its upside potential is significant. As the markets eye the ongoing conflicts, a recovery is still likely. 

Bitcoin price fails as a safe haven amid the geopolitical tensions

The initial attack by Israeli forces on Iranian nuclear sites late last week yielded the expected moves; Brent crude oil price surged by about 7%, gold price rallied by 1.5%, and stocks dropped worldwide. Interestingly, Bitcoin, which is usually referred to as digital gold, failed to live up to its position as a safe haven.

In fact, the leading cryptocurrency dropped to a one-week low on Friday; extending losses recorded in the previous two sessions. Like gold, Bitcoin’s tight supply boosts its status as a store of value. However, the rebound of the US dollar in the wake of the Israel-Iran conflict has capped its upward momentum. Even so, it bears high upside potential amid the persistent uncertainties.

At a crypto fear & greed index of 50, the traders appear indecisive. However, a bullish undertone is observable.

Data released by SoSoValue showed that US BTC spot ETFs had daily total net inflows of $412.20 million as of 16th June. With no outflows, the top 6 ETFs recorded inflows with BlackRock’s IBIT leading with inflows of $266.60 million. Besides, as highlighted by CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s trading volume rose by 25.87% over the past 24 hours. A surge in trading volume usually points to increased investor interest.

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

In the short term, Bitcoin price is likely to trade within the range of between $106,309 and $101,370 as the markets continue to weigh in on the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict. Notably, the bullish golden-cross pattern that has been in place for close to two months now confirms a continuation of the uptrend. With the attraction of more buyers, the bulls will be looking to retest Monday’s high of $108,900. 

Bearish pattern shapes Ripple price path as XRP lawsuit drags on

As the Ripple Labs – SEC lawsuit drags on and the broader crypto market remains in a neutral mode, Ripple price is still under pressure. A look at its daily chart shows the altcoin still trading below the descending trendline. 

At the time of press, the crypto major was trading below the 25 and 50-day EMAs that appear to be converging around $2.24. Amid the traders’ indecisiveness, the range between $2.10 and $2.27 is worth watching. Even with the possible recovery, it will likely face resistance at May’s level of $2.39.

XRP price chart | Source: TradingView

Read more: XRP price prediction if spot Ripple ETFs hit JPMorgan’s $8 billion target

Solana price underwhelms amid optimism of ETFs approval 

Solana price has erased most of the gains recorded over the past two sessions. The altcoin’s performance in recent sessions has been rather underwhelming especially after Coinshares filed S-1 application with SEC. The heightened odds of approval for Solana ETFs is likely to reignite Solana price rallying. 

Solana price chart | Source: TradingView

At the time of press, the altcoin was trading at $148 after the point of convergence for the 25 and 50-day EMAs formed resistance for the altcoin. With the indecisiveness in the broader crypto market, $156 remains a pivot worth watching. This makes the range between $140 and $167 worth watching. 

Read more: Crypto wrap: SEC postpones Solana ETFs decision, GameStop adds more Bitcoin

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The Brazilian real continued its strong surge on Wednesday as it soared to its highest point since October 8 last year. The USD/BRL exchange rate plunged to  a low of 5.4935, down by 13% from its highest point in December. Focus now shifts to the upcoming Brazilian and US interest rate decisions.

Brazil’s interest rate decisions

One of the top catalysts for the USD/BRL exchange rate is the upcoming interest rate decision by the Brazilian central bank.

This decision comes at a time when the economy is doing relatively well this year, as it takes advantage of the ongoing US and China trade conflict.

Recent data shows that the economy expanded by 1.4% in the first quarter in line with what most analysts were expecting. It was higher than the fourth-quarter growth of 0.1%.

The Brazilian economy has received a boost from the agricultural sector as the country has received adequate rain this year. As a result, analysts anticipate that the economy will expand by 2.3% this year. 

Meanwhile, Brazil’s inflation has retreated in the past few months. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 5.32% in May this year, the lower side of the average analysts’ estimates. Inflation has dropped because of the relatively cheaper food than expected.

Another report released on Tuesday revealed that Brazil’s annual inflation will retreat to 5.2% at the end of the year, according to a central bank survey. The inflation figure will be higher than the central bank target of 3%.

The Brazilian central bank has been hawkish in the past few months. It has hiked interest rates from 10.5% in October last year to 13.25%, and analysts anticipate that it will pause in this meeting.

Federal Reserve decision

The USD/BRL exchange will react to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%. It will likely maintain a wait-and-see attitude as it watches the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. A Deutsche Bank analyst said:

“The wait-and-see approach has served them well up until this point. Why deviate from it now when there’s no pressing reason to do so and with still upside risk to the inflation outlook?”

There are signs that the economy is not doing well. Data released on Tuesday showed that the US retail sales plunged in May as the impact of tariffs continued.

Another report showed that the US industrial and manufacturing production worsened in May.

Last week’s inflation data showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose from 2.3% in April to 2.3% in May, while the core CPI remained unchanged at 2.8%. 

Inflation may continue soaring now that the shipping and crude oil prices jumped as the crisis in the Middle East has escalated. Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have jumped to over $70. 

Therefore, the Fed will likely hint that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. 

USD/BRL technical analysis

USD/BRL price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD/BRL exchange rate has been in a strong downtrend after peaking at 6.3130 in December. It has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bearish reversal sign.

The pair has moved below the lower side of the neckline. It also moved below the 50-day and 100-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA). 

Further, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued falling. 

Therefore, the USD/BRL exchange rate will likely continue falling as sellers target the psychological point at 5.00. A move above the resistance at 5.8 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

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The crypto market crash continued on Wednesday morning as investors embraced a risk-off sentiment amid the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Bitcoin and most altcoins retreated, with the total market capitalization in the industry falling to $3.38 trillion. 

Crypto market crashes as Iran and Israel crisis escalates

Bitcoin, altcoins, and the stock market crashed on Tuesday and Wednesday as concerns about the Middle East accelerated. Israel and Iran continued launching missiles at each other.

Most importantly, Donald Trump sent signals that the US may be involved in the crisis. In a series of statements, he called for Iran to “total surrender” and hinted that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was an easy target. His statement on Khamenei came after it was reported that he had asked Israel not to kill him. 

Security analysts believe that the US may become involved in the ongoing crisis. For one, it is the only country with massive bunker-busting bombs that Israel will need to destroy the deepest sections of Iran’s nuclear program. 

The ongoing crisis has triggered a risk-off sentiment among market participants. This explains why the stock market and other risky assets like crypto crashed on Tuesday. 

The implication is that a prolonged crisis will disrupt shipping routes, boosting tanker prices. It will also lead to higher crude oil prices, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising to over $70. 

Higher shipping and energy prices will lead to higher inflation, which in turn, will make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term. Remember, the Fed is also observing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Is this the end of the crypto bull run?

Odds are that this is not the end of the crypto bull run as the industry’s fundamentals are solid.

First, there are signs that Bitcoin demand is rising. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have had inflows in the last seven consecutive days, bringing the cumulative total to $46.2 billion. Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $128 billion worth of assets. 

The same trend is happening with Ethereum, where its ETFs have had inflows in the last seven consecutive weeks. These funds now hold over $10 billion in assets after having cumulative inflows of $3.8 billion. 

Bitcoin demand has continued rising this year, with Strategy buying over 10,000 coins last week. It now holds 592,000 coins, and Michael Saylor expects to continue the trend for a while. 

Second, the supply of Bitcoin in exchanges continued to fall this year. Santiment data shows that exchanges hold about 1.1 million coins, down from over 1.5 million earlier this year. Supply in the over-the-counter market has continued falling. 

Bitcoin price has strong technicals

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

The other reason why this is not the end of the crypto bull run is that the coin has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, a popular continuation sign. This pattern comprises of a horizontal level and a rounded bottom, and a handle. 

Bitcoin is now forming the handle section, which will lead to a strong bullish breakout in the near term. This pattern has a depth of about 30%, meaning that the coin will jump to about $141,685. 

BTC prepares for a big breakout

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the chart above shows that Bitcoin price is about to break above the ascending trendline that connects the highest swings since December 17. 

A break above that level could lead to a multi-year bull run that may push it to over $200,000 as some analysts predict. This, in turn, will trigger an altcoin bull run since these tokens often mirror the performance of Bitcoin.

Read more: Bitcoin price prediction: BTC path to $300,000 revealed

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Lloyds Bank share price has remained in a tight range in the past few weeks as some investors take profits after surging by over 50% from its lowest point in January this year. This article explores the top 3 main reasons to buy Lloyds.

Lloyds share price has strong technicals

The first main reason why the Lloyds stock is a good buy is its strong technicals. The daily chart shows that it bottomed at $50.88 between November and January. It has formed a triple-bottom pattern whose neckline was at 55.20p.

This triple-bottom pattern explains why the stock has surged in the past few months. It has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bulls are control.

Lloyds share price has formed a bullish flag pattern. This pattern is made up of a vertical line that resembles a flagpole and a flag in the form of a descending channel. A bullish flag is one of the most positive chart patterns. 

Therefore, the stock will likely have a strong bullish breakout, with the next point to watch being the year-to-date high of 79p, up by 3.65% from the current level. 

A move above that target price will increase the odds of the stock rising to the next psychological point at 90p. A move below the 50-day moving average at 73.8p will invalidate the bullish view.

LLOY stock chart | Source: TradingView

Read more: Can Lloyds share price surge to 100p after its earnings?

Lloyds Bank is a good dividend stock

The other main reason to buy Lloyds Bank stock is that it is a top dividend stock in the FTSE 100. Data shows that the company paid a dividend of 3.17 pence per share in 2024, a 15% increase from a year earlier. 

Lloyds Bank has a dividend yield of about 4%, meaning that a £10,000 investment will bring in about £400 a year in dividends. Its dividend per share will be 3.51p this year, followed by 4.05p and 4.67p in the next two years.

In addition to dividends, the company is buying back substantial shares, which has reduced its outstanding shares to 60.45 billion from last year’s high of 60.46 billion.

The company will likely continue growing its payouts in the coming years. It ended the last quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.5%, and the company hopes to reduce its ratio to 13% by the end of 2026.

Strong revenue and profitability growth

The other bullish catalyst for the Lloyds share price is that analysts anticipate that its business will continue growing. 

City analysts believe the company’s net interest income will grow to £13.54 billion this year, followed by £14.7 billion and £15.64 billion in the next two financial years. 

Analysts also expect that its profit for the period will rise to £4.6 billion this year, followed by £5.8 billion and £6.5 billion in the next two years. 

This revenue and profitability growth will likely continue even when the Bank of England (BoE) cuts interest rates. Analysts expect the bank to leave rates unchanged on Thursday, and then resume the rate cuts later this year.

Motor insurance is a risk

The main risk that the company faces is its the motor insurance crisis. It set aside over £1.5 billion in provisions last year, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the issue in July. The FCA will also announce its redress on the issue.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the company will be forced to pay as much as £3 billion. On the positive side, investors have already priced in these funds, meaning that any fine will not catch them by surprise.

Read more: Lloyds share price forecast: here’s why LLOY may surge soon

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Elon Musk’s ambitious artificial intelligence startup, xAI, is reportedly burning through cash at an alarming rate, exceeding $1 billion a month.

This aggressive spending underscores the monumental financial demands of competing in the fiercely competitive and capital-intensive generative AI industry.

As xAI seeks to raise billions more in financing, the sheer scale of its expenditures is drawing significant attention.

xAI’s massive AI fuel

According to a Bloomberg report, xAI projects a staggering $13 billion in cash burn throughout 2025, averaging over $1 billion in monthly expenses.

This aggressive spending means that even xAI’s extensive fundraising efforts are barely keeping pace with its operational needs.

The company is actively pursuing substantial debt and equity financing, aiming to secure $9.3 billion, but over half of these funds are expected to be spent within just the first three months of securing the investment.

This rapid consumption of capital highlights the unprecedented financial pressures facing AI companies aiming to develop cutting-edge models like xAI’s Grok.

The primary drivers of these astronomical costs are deeply rooted in the fundamental requirements of building advanced AI.

Training sophisticated AI models like Grok necessitates massive server infrastructure and the acquisition of specialized, incredibly expensive computer chips, predominantly high-end GPUs from manufacturers like Nvidia.

These hardware investments alone account for a significant portion of the expenditure.

Furthermore, attracting and retaining top-tier AI talent in a global market where demand far outstrips supply adds another layer of substantial cost.

The competition for AI engineers and researchers is fierce, driving up salaries and benefits.

According to Carlyle Group, $1.8 trillion of capital will be invested by 2030 to build AI infrastructure.

Musk’s AI ambitions

Elon Musk has long been able and interested in funding futuristic projects before they start generating revenue.

Musk’s Tesla had spent $1 billion per quarter in 2017 on its Model 3 production.

SpaceX also suffered losses as it built towards its goal of interplanetary exploration.

However, the high burn rate raises questions about the sustainability of xAI in the long term, especially given that the generative AI industry is still in its early stages of monetization.

According to Bloomberg, OpenAI is expected to make $12.7 billion in revenue this year.

In contrast, Musk’s xAI is set to generate $500 million this year and then $2 billion in the next year.

xAI is also looking to train its model through Musk’s X (formerly known as Twitter), which will help the company in terms of data instead of paying for it like other companies.

While xAI projects to be profitable by 2027, the immediate challenge is bridging the gap between massive investment and future revenue generation.

The fact that xAI has already spent most of the $14 billion it previously raised since its founding in 2023 further emphasizes the continuous need for fresh capital.

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Asia-Pacific stock markets presented a mixed picture at Wednesday’s open, with investors cautiously navigating a landscape dominated by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

Adding to the unease, reports emerged that US President Donald Trump is mulling a military strike on Iran and has demanded the “unconditional surrender” of its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This heightened geopolitical risk overshadowed other regional economic data, with Indian benchmarks like the Sensex poised for a weaker start.

The already tense situation in the Middle East intensified as former and current US officials told NBC News that President Trump is considering military action against Iran.

Trump himself, in a post on Truth Social, starkly demanded “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” by Iran.

This aggressive US posturing has significantly amplified investor anxiety.

“Comments from President Trump have triggered speculation that the US will get more involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel that escalated significantly five days ago,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note, capturing the market’s apprehension.

Despite these overarching concerns, some regional markets managed to find positive footing. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.47%, and the broader Topix rose 0.4%. 

South Korea’s Kospi climbed 0.7%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.66% higher.

However, the mood was more subdued elsewhere. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 0.87%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up a marginal 0.18%. 

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 traded flat.

Economic data points: Japan’s exports dip, adding to growth worries

Fresh economic data from Japan provided a mixed picture. Exports in May declined by 1.7% year-on-year.

While this was a softer fall than the 3.8% decline expected by economists polled by Reuters, it marked the sharpest decline since September 2024 and a reversal from the 2% gain recorded in April.

This data comes a day after the Bank of Japan, in its monetary policy statement, highlighted that the country’s growth was likely to “moderate” due to factors like trade, which would lead to a slowdown in overseas economies and a decline in domestic corporate profits.

Falling exports had already impacted Japan’s GDP, with the economy shrinking by 0.2% in the quarter ending March compared to the preceding period – the first quarterly contraction in a year.

Imports to Japan fell 7.7% in May, a steeper decline than the Reuters poll expectation of a 6.7% fall.

Indian markets brace for impact

Indian benchmark indices, the Nifty and Sensex, are set to open lower on Wednesday, June 18, as the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran keep global markets on edge.

The uncertainty was further compounded by reports suggesting President Trump is considering military action against Iran, intensifying pressure on Tehran amid its ongoing standoff with Israel.

Trends on Gift Nifty also indicated a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index, with Gift Nifty trading around the 24,834.50 level, a discount of nearly 34.3 points from Nifty futures’ previous close.

This follows a weaker session on Tuesday, where the domestic equity market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below the 24,900 level.

The Sensex had declined 212.85 points, or 0.26%, to close at 81,583.30, while the Nifty 50 settled 93.10 points, or 0.37%, lower at 24,853.40.

Oil surges, US markets await Fed

The geopolitical tensions sent crude oil futures surging by more than 4% in the previous session.

The US crude oil contract for July delivery gained $3.07, or 4.28%, to close at $74.84 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent for August rose $3.22, or 4.4%, to $76.45.

Oil prices had initially closed lower on Monday on reports that Iran was seeking a ceasefire with Israel, but those hopes faded as the conflict continued for a fifth day, with President Trump adopting a harder line against Iran.

Oil prices have risen approximately 10% since Israel launched its air campaign against Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs on Friday.

Meanwhile, US stock futures inched lower as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, due Wednesday afternoon stateside.

Overnight on Wall Street, all three major averages ended the trading day lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 299.29 points, or 0.70%, to close at 42,215.80.

The S&P 500 shed 0.84% to end at 5,982.72, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.91% and settled at 19,521.09.

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Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play is experiencing a significant oil and gas boom, signaling the nation’s strategic shift towards liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. 

This growth continues the strong performance seen last year, with Rystad Energy estimating a 26% year-on-year increase in oil output and a 16% rise in gas production during the first quarter of 2025.

Argentina is also exploring future opportunities for gas reserve monetisation and export, supported by investment incentives for infrastructure and storage projects.

Production

In March, oil production from Vaca Muerta exceeded 447,000 barrels per day.

This marks a significant increase from 354,000 barrels per day during the same period last year. 

The growth was primarily driven by YPF, the flagship state-owned operator, with additional support from local independent companies including Vista Energy, Pluspetrol, and Phoenix Global Resources, Rystad Energy said.

Source: Rystad Energy

Though oil production is still robust, the basin is exhibiting indicators of a slowdown, especially in drilling operations, the Norway-based energy consultancy said.

The marginal increase in new oil wells, with 76 brought online last quarter and 79 this quarter, is attributed to saturated takeaway capacity.

This constraint is anticipated to ease once the Oldelval Duplicar expansion becomes operational in April.

Vaca Muerta’s dry gas production reached 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 13% increase from the previous quarter and a 16% rise year-on-year.

Radhika Bansal, vice president, upstream research at Rystad Energy, said in a report:

To leverage this momentum, the country is actively pursuing a bold, multi-phase national LNG export strategy, meaning Argentina could soon become a pivotal player in global gas supply, significantly reshaping markets and energy geopolitics.

Southern Energy LNG project

The Southern Energy LNG project is crucial to Argentina’s aspirations for LNG exports, fueled by consistent and reliable growth from Vaca Muerta.

Utilizing two Golar LNG-supplied floating LNG (FLNG) vessels, the Hilli Episeyo and MK II, the Southern Energy project initiative aims to provide Argentina with a collective export capacity of 6 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). 

These units will be strategically positioned off the coast of Rio Negro province.

The final investment decision (FID) for MK II is expected by Q3 2025.

Following this, Hilli Episeyo is scheduled to begin production in late 2027, and MK II is anticipated to commence operations by the close of 2028.

YPF and Shell partnership

YPF is leading a large-scale, phased project, ARGFLNG 2, in partnership with Shell (who joined in late 2024), to unlock LNG export potential as part of a national effort.

This second phase is expected to reach a capacity of 10 Mtpa.

ARGFLNG 3, the third phase, has the potential to add 12 Mtpa, with Eni as a prospective strategic partner.

YPF and other stakeholders increasingly perceive each phase as integral to a unified LNG export vision, despite the distinct partners and capacities involved in each stage.

Source: Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy’s analysis suggests that FLNG developments will achieve full capacity by the late 2030s.

Further boosting long-term export growth, the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline project serves as a crucial complement to these LNG initiatives.

VMOS is set to begin operations in 2027, creating a direct connection between the Neuquen Basin and the Atlantic Coast through the port of Punta Colorada.

“This new corridor is set to alleviate inland bottlenecks and enhance export logistics, significantly reinforcing Vaca Muerta’s long-term viability as a global energy hub,” Rystad said.

Shale remains crucial

The Vaca Muerta shale play continues to draw significant strategic investments, with upstream merger and acquisition activity in the first quarter of 2025 representing a substantial 43% of the total Latin American upstream deal value for the period. 

This highlights not only Argentina’s LNG ambitions but also the ongoing appeal of its shale resources.

Strategic positioning in Vaca Muerta continues to evolve, extending beyond mere deal-making.

Meanwhile, Norwegian energy giant Equinor has reversed its earlier decision to exit the shale play and will now remain in the region. 

The reversal was driven by the lifting of monetary restrictions and improvements in infrastructure and export viability.

Analysts at Rystad said:

A shift in Equinor’s stance has marked something of a turning point, reaffirming international confidence in Argentina’s shale resurgence.

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Tokyo Gas, Japan’s largest city-gas supplier, announced on Wednesday that it anticipates no direct impact on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) procurement operations as a result of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. 

This assessment was shared by the company’s senior managing executive officer Nobuhiro Sugesawa to Reuters in a report, providing clarity amidst global concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies in the volatile Middle East region.

The statement from Tokyo Gas is significant given the geopolitical sensitivities surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments, and the broader implications of regional instability on energy markets. 

While the conflict has raised anxieties about potential supply chain interruptions and price volatility, Tokyo Gas’s executive’s comments suggest that the company’s diversified procurement strategy or existing contractual arrangements are robust enough to buffer against immediate direct consequences.

This news offers a degree of reassurance to investors and energy consumers in Japan, a nation highly dependent on imported LNG to meet its energy demands. 

No direct impact

Sugesawa was quoted as saying in the report:

Since we don’t import LNG from Qatar or UAE, our LNG procurement is not directly affected at this time.

“But we are monitoring the situation with the utmost interest,” he said, noting that escalating tensions in the Middle East could drive up LNG prices and disrupt global supply.

The protracted air war between Iran and Israel entered its sixth day on Wednesday, escalating fears of a broader regional conflict

The intensity of the hostilities has drawn international attention, with global powers urging de-escalation. 

Despite not being an active participant in the fighting, US President Donald Trump on Tuesday issued a stark demand for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” 

This assertive stance by the US, a key ally of Israel, adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation and raises questions about potential future interventions or diplomatic pressures. 

The ongoing aerial exchanges have inflicted significant damage and casualties on both sides, further fueling animosity and making a swift resolution increasingly difficult.

More LNG from US

Sugesawa indicated that the utility is considering an increase in its procurement of resources from the US. 

This strategic shift is largely due to the perception of the US as a highly attractive and reliable source of supply. 

Currently, the United States contributes approximately 10% of the utility’s total supply, a figure that Sugesawa suggests could see a significant rise in the near future. 

This potential increase underscores a broader effort by the utility to diversify and secure its supply chains, leveraging what it views as a stable and robust market in the US.

Last week, JERA, Japan’s largest power generator, announced agreements to procure US LNG from four distinct providers.

Tokyo Gas has expressed interest in the Alaska LNG project, according to Sugesawa.

This interest is rooted in the historical significance of Alaska as the source of the company’s inaugural LNG imports over five decades ago.

He cautioned, however, that the company would first need to evaluate specific factors, such as economic viability, before proceeding.

The company primarily procures LNG from Australia, supplemented by imports from Malaysia and Russia.

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