Oil prices were mostly flat after rising earlier in the session on Thursday due to a fall in US inventories. 

According to the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories in the country decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21. 

Prices also had support from concerns over tighter global supply after US tariffs threats on Venezuelan oil purchasers and sanctions on Iran’s exports. 

“Stronger than expected drop in US crude stocks last week (API report) contributed to the latest acceleration higher, as oil remains supported by growing concerns about potential supply shortage, following a threat from the US of imposing sanctions to those buying oil from Venezuela, with China being top buyer of Venezuelan oil,” Slobodan Drvenica, information and analysis manager at Windsor Brokers, said in a FXstreet report. 

At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $69.58 per barrel, down 0.1%.

The Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $72.97 a barrel, also down 0.1% from the previous close. 

WTI oil price reached a three-week high on Wednesday, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains.

Drvenica said:

The recent new round of US sanctions on Iran’s oil sales, further complicated the situation, as China is also the biggest buyer of crude oil from Iran.

Trump’s tariff threats

The US government has recently escalated its economic pressure on Iran by tightening oil sanctions. 

This includes adding a Chinese refinery to the sanctions list for the first time, a move that signifies the US’s intent to further restrict Iran’s oil exports and cut off its revenue streams. 

The US aims to compel Iran to comply with its demands regarding its nuclear program and regional activities. 

These sanctions are part of a broader US strategy to isolate Iran economically and diplomatically.

However, this move could also strain US-China relations and disrupt global oil markets.

“This could also deter other potential buyers of Iranian oil,” Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said. 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump had also announced a 25% tariff on buyers of Venezuelan oil earlier this week. 

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation:

Earlier this week prices got a boost after Mr Trump announced 25% secondary tariffs on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, which was seen as another way of disrupting China’s economy.

Impact of auto tariffs

Market participants were actively evaluating the potential repercussions on oil demand following President Trump’s announcement to impose a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week. 

This move has raised concerns about a potential decrease in vehicle imports, which could lead to a decline in overall oil consumption. 

The automotive industry is a significant consumer of petroleum products, and any disruptions to its supply chain or sales could have a ripple effect on the energy sector.

“The news around Trump’s tariffs on autos may actually turn out to be a net positive for crude oil because the rise in new car prices from tariffs will mean it slows down the switch to newer, more fuel-efficient models,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, was quoted as saying in a Reuters report. 

Technical outlook

Front-month WTI contract has been held above the $69 per barrel mark, while Brent crude has been hovering below $73. 

“Prices have been steadily pushing up since WTI retested support around $65 just over a fortnight ago,” Morrison said. 

“This slow and measured rally is helping to steady nerves and bring buyers back into the market.”

The daily moving average divergence and convergence have risen from moderately oversold levels and are approaching neutral territory.

Morrison added:

This would suggest that there’s still plenty of room to the upside. But buyers should remain cautious at current levels, and keep an eye on how oil behaves if it manages to break back above $70.

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US President Donald Trump has announced new import tariffs of 25% on cars and car parts, a move that threatens to escalate global trade tensions.

The tariffs will take effect on April 2 for vehicle imports, with levies on parts expected to follow in May or later.

Trump defended the decision, arguing that it would stimulate the US auto industry by creating jobs and attracting investment.

However, analysts warn that the policy could backfire by disrupting global supply chains, increasing vehicle prices, and straining relations with key allies, including Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Mexico.

The tariffs are also expected to drive up the cost of vehicles sold in the US.

Analysts at Bernstein estimate that the new levies could add as much as $75 billion per year to automakers’ expenses, costs that will likely be passed on to consumers.

Middle-income buyers will bear the brunt of these price increases.

Affordable models such as the Chevrolet Trax, which is manufactured in South Korea, may become out of reach for many American buyers.

“The folks at the lower end of the buying pool are going to suffer the most,” said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive.

Asian automakers hit as stocks tumble

Asian car manufacturers were among the hardest hit following Trump’s announcement.

Toyota and Honda shares fell by 2.74% and 3.05%, respectively, while Nissan, which has two plants in Mexico, dropped 1.84%.

Mazda Motor suffered the sharpest decline, plunging over 6.4%, while Mitsubishi Motors also saw a 4% drop.

South Korean automakers also faced a downturn, with Kia Motors sliding over 3%. Kia, which operates a manufacturing facility in Mexico, faces significant exposure to the tariffs.

Chinese automakers were not spared either, with Nio falling 3.94% and Xpeng losing 1.97%.

In India, Tata Motors, owner of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), saw its shares crash more than 6% amid fears that the company’s US sales would take a hit.

Hyundai and Kia could see their margins take a hit

Credit ratings agency CreditSights warned that Hyundai Motor and its affiliate Kia could face financial strain from the tariffs.

The 25% levies could push their global operating margins down to less than 6% from a projected 9%, potentially triggering credit rating downgrades.

The tariffs could affect 60% of the vehicles Hyundai-Kia sells in the US, with an estimated cost increase of 25% per unit.

The group can likely only pass 5% of the projected cost increase, and the impact of the tariffs could wipe out its US profitability, the agency said.

Despite investing $21 billion in US expansion plans, Hyundai still imported over a million vehicles into the US last year, accounting for more than half of its American sales.

According to SK Securities analyst Hyuk Jin Yoon, the two South Korean carmakers may have to pay as much as 10 trillion won ($7 billion) annually in tariffs, wiping out nearly 40% of their operating profits.

Toyota and Volkswagen also vulnerable

Toyota, the world’s largest automaker, is also at risk despite having extensive US manufacturing operations in Kentucky, Indiana, Mississippi, Texas, West Virginia, and Alabama.

The company still imports about half of the vehicles it sells in the US.

Volkswagen, Europe’s top carmaker, is similarly vulnerable.

S&P Global Mobility estimates that 43% of Volkswagen’s US sales originate from Mexico, making it a key target of Trump’s trade policy.

Ford to face less severe impact than rivals

Ford Motor Co. could also face a less-severe impact than some rivals, with about 80% of the cars it sells in the US being built domestically.

However, the carmaker builds its entry-level Maverick small pickup in Mexico as well as the Bronco Sport compact SUV and Mustang Mach-E electric vehicle.

General Motors imports certain Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks from its facilities in Mexico and Canada, along with the entry-level Chevy Trax compact SUV from South Korea and the Chevrolet Equinox crossover SUV.

Both the Equinox and Trax, which rank among GM’s most affordable models, saw sales exceed 200,000 units last year.

Additionally, the company manufactures electric versions of the Equinox and Blazer in Mexico.

Stellantis NV, meanwhile, produces the Jeep Compass and Wagoneer S SUVs in Mexico, making it another major player affected by the tariffs.

Tesla could emerge as a winner among losers

Among the hardest-hit automakers, Tesla appears to be a rare beneficiary of the new tariffs.

The electric vehicle giant produces all its US-sold cars domestically at factories in California and Texas, shielding it from the 25% levies.

While Tesla may still face higher production costs due to tariffs on imported parts, its relative insulation from foreign car imports gives it a competitive edge over rivals.

Trump dismissed speculation that Tesla CEO Elon Musk influenced the tariff decision, stating, “He’s never asked me for a favor in business whatsoever.”

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Gold prices reached new record highs on Thursday as escalating trade tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets.

“The uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s impending reciprocal tariffs on April 2 keeps investors on the edge,” Haresh Menghani, editor at FXstreet, said in a report. 

This, along with the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from a three-week top, remains supportive of the bid tone surrounding the gold price.

At the time of writing, the most-active gold contract on COMEX was at $3,074.86 per ounce, up 0.8% from the previous close.

The contract had hit a record high of $3,075.90 per ounce earlier in the session. 

The most-active silver contract on COMEX also rose 0.3% from the previous close to trade at $34.323 per ounce. 

Safe-haven demand

The announcement of Trump’s tariffs, set to be implemented on April 2 alongside a series of other duties, triggered a risk-averse sentiment across global markets. 

This led to substantial losses across both Wall Street and Asian stock markets.

Investors, fearing the potential negative impacts of the tariffs on global trade and economic growth, moved their capital away from riskier assets such as stocks and into safer havens like bonds and gold. 

“The global risk sentiment took a hit in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s new auto tariffs announced on Wednesday,” Menghani said. 

“Adding to this, the uncertainty over Trump’s impending reciprocal tariff next week weighs on investors’ sentiment and revives demand for the traditional safe-haven gold price on Thursday,” he added.

The new auto tariffs imposed by Trump will likely increase US car prices and could contribute to inflation.

The tariffs will also impact major economies such as Japan, Europe, and South Korea.

US Fed rate cut expectations

The US Federal Reserve adjusted its growth forecast downward and indicated two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts for 2025 due to uncertainty surrounding the effects of Trump’s trade policies.

Menghani noted:

This overshadows Wednesday’s upbeat US macro data and weighs on the US dollar. 

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the Financial Times that it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut because of economic uncertainty.

Goolsbee warned that if markets begin to anticipate higher inflation, policymakers should consider this a serious warning sign.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged the Fed’s progress in curbing inflation but emphasized the need for further action to reach the 2% target. 

He also expressed uncertainty about the potential impact of Trump’s aggressive policies on the US economy.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that there is no need for the US central bank to rush into cutting rates, as a restrictive policy is still required to bring inflation down to the 2% goal.

BofA raises gold price forecast

Gold price forecasts for this year and next have been raised by Bank of America (BofA), with near-term price support linked to ongoing uncertainty from US trade policies, according to a Kitco report.

BofA has raised its gold price forecasts, predicting that gold will trade at $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 per ounce in 2026. 

The bank’s previous forecasts were $2,750 per ounce for 2025 and $2,625 per ounce for 2026.

Spot gold prices could reach $3,500 within the next two years if investment demand increases by 10%, the bank reiterated in a note. 

A key supporting factor could be central banks raising their gold reserves from the current 10% to over 30%.

However, BofA also added that the rally of bullion could be negatively impacted by US fiscal consolidation, reduced geopolitical tensions, a return to collaborative inter-governmental relations, and more targeted tariffs on April 2.

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It sounds like science fiction: a digital currency created by a pseudonymous coder helps rescue the world’s largest economy from a sovereign debt spiral. 

But that’s exactly a conversation that is reaching Washington and Wall Street.

The idea is that Bitcoin could be the answer to the US debt problem.

And this idea isn’t coming from anonymous internet forums anymore. It’s coming from credible voices.

Former Strategy CEO Michael Saylor, asset manager VanEck, and even members of the US Senate are now entertaining the once-radical possibility that Bitcoin could serve as a financial lifeline. 

Could Bitcoin be more than an investment hedge? Could this even become the base layer of a new global financial system?

A nation out of balance

The reality is that the United States is stretched thin. The federal debt has now exceeded $36 trillion and is projected to exceed $116 trillion by 2049, growing at around 5% annually. 

Interest payments alone are expected to consume an increasingly large portion of the federal budget, especially as the country relies more heavily on short-term Treasury bills.

This vulnerability was exposed when post-pandemic inflation triggered a series of rate hikes.

Traditional policy tools are bound to become ineffective. Raising taxes or cutting spending are politically toxic. 

Engineering inflation might reduce the real value of debt, but it punishes savers and is hard to control once unleashed.

A default is politically and financially unthinkable.

Institutions like the Brookings Institution still argue that a full-blown debt crisis remains unlikely.

But the reality is that scenarios once considered impossible are now more plausible. 

The American fiscal trajectory is increasingly uncertain. This is why investors and policymakers are beginning to look elsewhere.

VanEck’s $21 trillion model

Asset manager VanEck recently brought new data to the table.

In a February 2025 report, the firm’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, calculated that if the US government accumulates one million Bitcoin by 2029, it could reduce national debt by $21 trillion by 2049.

That’s assuming a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Bitcoin’s price, from $100,000 to a staggering $21 million per coin.

This hypothetical reserve would represent around 18% of US debt at that point.

The proposal aligns with the BITCOIN Act, proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, who supports a Bitcoin reserve strategy as a way to restore American fiscal health and reinforce the dollar’s dominance.

While such projections may seem extreme, they echo historical monetary resets, such as the collapse of the Roman denarius to the dissolution of Bretton Woods. 

Every few generations, the monetary system changes. VanEck’s point is that Bitcoin could be part of the next one.

Bitcoin as digital capital

Michael Saylor has emerged as the loudest proponent of the idea that Bitcoin is more than just a decentralized asset. 

During a recent interview with CoinDesk, Saylor outlined his vision: if the US acquires between 5% and 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply, it could create $16 to $81 trillion in long-term value by 2045. 

In his words, it’s a financial lever strong enough to flip the national balance sheet from debtor to owner.

Bitcoin, he argues, isn’t competing with the dollar. It’s competing with capital assets such as real estate, equities, bonds, as the ultimate long-duration store of value. 

Unlike gold or property, it’s borderless, liquid, and immune to dilution.

For institutions or sovereigns looking to preserve wealth over centuries, Bitcoin may be the only asset without an issuer, and therefore without political risk.

Saylor doesn’t just speak in abstractions. Strategy has raised billions through bonds and equity offerings to purchase more Bitcoin, transforming itself into a high-leverage proxy for the asset.

Saylor now describes Strategy not as a software company, but as a “publicly traded Bitcoin development firm.”

His broader proposal includes classifying Bitcoin as a digital commodity, separate from other crypto tokens that serve different purposes.

In this emerging taxonomy, Bitcoin is the cornerstone of capital preservation.

A new monetary foundation?

The US may be approaching a point of strategic necessity: the dollar-based fiat system is fraying at the edges, and a shift to a Bitcoin reserve could allow America to reboot from a position of strength rather than crisis.

The idea isn’t just domestic. Countries like Venezuela, Switzerland, and Hong Kong have begun exploring Bitcoin’s role in national reserves. 

In Venezuela, it’s seen as a tool for wealth recovery. In Switzerland, as a complement to gold.

If the US Treasury were to begin accumulating Bitcoin, it would almost certainly trigger global copycat behaviour.

A sudden revaluation of Bitcoin could, in theory, reduce the real weight of US debt while boosting national net worth. 

More radically, Bitcoin’s fixed supply would impose long-term fiscal discipline, curbing endless deficit spending and forcing governments to prioritize productivity over debt expansion.

Still, the transition would be anything but smooth. Hyperinflation of fiat currencies, social disruption, and the breakdown of existing debt markets are all conceivable outcomes. 

A Bitcoin-based reset might cleanse the system, but not without casualties.

Is Bitcoin the answer?

The truth is, that Bitcoin is not a magic wand. It’s volatile, politically divisive, and poorly understood by many policymakers.

The bigger issue is that while public adoption grows, most policymakers still lack a clear understanding of it.

Moreover, Bitcoin is also not liquid enough yet to absorb large-scale sovereign adoption without major market distortion.

But it is credible.

It’s credible because it offers a clear alternative to the terminal drift of fiat. It’s credible because institutions like BlackRock are now backing it.

And it’s credible because the US is, for the first time, building a legal and strategic framework around it.

If the US embraces Bitcoin not as a speculative bet, but as a foundational reserve asset, it may yet reassert control over its financial future.

That future won’t look like the past. It will be decentralized, digitized, and volatile. But it might just work.

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The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) issued a warning on Thursday, highlighting the potential for a gas supply shortage on Australia’s east coast during the winter season (July-September). 

This shortfall could occur if producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) choose to export all of their uncontracted gas. 

The ACCC’s statement underscores the delicate balance between domestic supply needs and the economic incentives of exporting LNG, particularly during periods of high demand.

Market update

ACCC has released its quarterly update on the gas market, and the outlook is concerning. 

The ACCC’s report indicates that the east coast of Australia could experience a gas supply shortfall of 9 petajoules (PJ). 

This shortfall is significant, but the situation is even more dire in the southern states, which could face a historic high gas deficit of 40 PJ. 

These figures highlight the potential for a serious gas shortage in Australia, which could have significant implications for businesses and consumers.

Seasonal demand and market volatility

Australia, a major player in the global LNG market, typically experiences peak gas demand during its winter months due to the increased need for heating in colder temperatures. 

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said in a media statement:

This changed outlook reflects the susceptibility of the supply/demand balance to short-term reductions in gas production and changes in LNG producers’ intended exports and swaps.

This seasonal surge in demand can strain the country’s gas supply, and the situation can be further exacerbated by unexpected weather events or power plant outages. 

These unforeseen disruptions can lead to gas shortages, causing potential price spikes and disruptions to energy supply for consumers and businesses.

Domestic vs export pressures

The risk of gas shortages during winter highlights the challenges faced by Australia in balancing its domestic gas needs with its export commitments. 

As a significant LNG exporter, Australia faces pressure to meet international demand for gas, but it must also ensure sufficient supply for its own domestic market. 

Australia’s reliance on gas exports has created a problematic situation for its domestic energy market. 

As a significant portion of the country’s gas is sold to overseas buyers, Australian households are facing a dual challenge: gas shortages and escalating energy bills. 

This has become a major concern for the Australian public and a key issue in the upcoming election.

Political parties will likely be pressured to address this energy crisis and propose solutions that prioritize domestic gas supply and affordability.

Southern states face a severe deficit

The ACCC reported that the expected shortfall in the southern states has doubled compared to last year. 

This is mainly due to decreased output from the Gippsland, Otway, and Cooper basins and an increased forecast demand for gas-powered electricity generation.

In the media statement, Brakey further said that the regulator has recommended that the government collaborate with LNG producers to secure the additional supply currently uncommitted for the domestic market.

“It remains crucial that LNG producers have regard to the domestic outlook before making any significant variations to export volumes or schedules,” Brakey said.

The east coast supply and demand balance is projected to worsen further over the next few years, which will increase the impact of LNG producers’ decisions on the market.

The severity of the situation was highlighted in January when the regulator warned the southern states that they may need to import gas to meet long-term demand.

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