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BEML stock price rallied sharply on Friday as the overall market sentiment in India improved despite the persistence of geopolitical tensions around the Israel-Iran conflict.

At the time of writing, BEML stock was trading 8.2% higher at Rs 4,640 and is closing in near its 52-week high of Rs 5,488.

The company has made notable strides in both defense and rail projects and the stock seems to be riding strong on a combination of factors like robust quarterly results, a strong order book, and positive management guidance.

BEML continues to innovate with the development of advanced high-mobility vehicles tailored for strategic weapon systems, further strengthening its role as a critical supplier to India’s defense sector. 

What is driving BEML stock price?

The rally in the stock price came as BEML displayed some strong fundamentals and posted its highest-ever order book of Rs 14,610 crore for FY25.

The company reported its highest-ever profit before tax (PBT) of Rs 405.43 crore and witnessed a 12% jump in its Q4 FY25 profit after tax (PAT) which was recorded at Rs 287.55 crore.

In terms of revenue, BEML reported a healthy jump of 9%, which did well in terms of boosting investor confidence.

Amid recent geopolitical events, Dalal Street is expecting the Indian government to ramp up defence spending, which explains a wave of optimism around defense and infrastructure stocks like BEML.

This broader positive sentiment has helped lift BEML and other public sector undertakings (PSUs), especially as the company stands to benefit from new government contracts and defense procurement plans.

A number of brokerages raised their target prices for BEML, even though a few have issued downgrades after the recent rally. Analysts are particularly encouraged by BEML’s expanding pipeline of large-scale projects and its ability to execute them.

Risk and considerations

The strong rally in the BEML stock price is seen with the surge in wider defence sector stock across the Indian markets. The investors may reconsider once the global headwinds pass and things go back to normal.

In Indian markets, the defence stocks are almost at their all-time highs after New Delhi’s intense exchange with Pakistan during Operation Sindoor.

The market sentiment around Indian defence stocks is largely based on sustained earnings growth and order inflows, but it can quickly shift if investors get any wind around delays in project execution or a slowdown in government spending.

Meanwhile, Indian benchmark indices rebounded from the 3-day losing streak on Friday as both Sensex and Nifty traded in green throughout the day. Ahead of the closing bell, the Sensex was 1.05% up at 82,219.18 while the Nifty 50 crossed the 25,000-level resistance.

Investors remain on the edge as the Middle East conflict continues with Donald Trump still thinking about engaging the United States against Iran, while Europe moves towards mediating a ceasefire.

The post BEML stock rallies 8%: what is driving Indian PSU near its 52-week high appeared first on Invezz

Investors have piled into crypto stocks in recent sessions after the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act with a decisive 68-30 vote, marking a significant milestone in stablecoin legislation.

What the bill essentially does is establish a federal framework for private firms to issue stablecoins under strict regulations, including full reserve backing and monthly audits.

While the GENIUS Act still needs approval from the House before it becomes a law, the legislation is already hurting traditional payment stocks like Visa Inc and Mastercard Inc.  

Why? Because this bill, if it becomes a law, could make it more appealing for global merchants to switch from conventional card payments to stablecoins for transactions.

Why is GENIUS Act a threat for Visa and Mastercard?

Senate’s approval of the GENIUS Act poses a meaningful threat to card companies like Visa and Mastercard as it could establish stablecoins as compliant, mainstream instruments for payments.

If stablecoins are backed by liquid assets and audited regularly, as proposed in the aforementioned bill, businesses may begin to prefer them for transactions to avoid interchange fees and processing delays.

In fact, retail behemoths like Amazon and Walmart Inc are already warming up to launch their own stablecoins – potentially bypassing Visa and Mastercard fees entirely – and losing business from giants like these could deal a significant financial blow to both.

The GENIUS Act prohibits yield on consumer stablecoins, but vests regulatory control within the Treasury, offering clearer oversight.

That threatens the stranglehold Visa and Mastercard hold over everyday transactions and settlement processes.

While some would argue that consumers still value credit card rewards and protections, emergence of compliant, low-fee stablecoins backed by regulatory clarity could gradually reduce dominance of incumbent networks.

Are stablecoins already being used actively for transactions?

What’s also worth mentioning is that stablecoins are already being used for transactions, and that too, at scale.

In 2024, stablecoins saw transaction volumes surpass $27 trillion, outpacing the combined volume on Visa and Mastercard – a landmark indicator of their growing usage.

In Q1 this year, stablecoins continued to dominate those two payment networks, with over $1.4 trillion in transaction volume seen in a single month (May).

More importantly, stablecoin usage is expanding well beyond crypto trading. More than 20% of stablecoin transaction volumes are now tied to payments, not trading.

According to American Banker, just under half of the surveyed corporate treasurers say they are using stablecoins for operational payments, while another 23% are piloting them.

Reportedly, weekly stablecoin transfers now average more than $500 billion, surpassing Visa by over 60%.

These facts and figures confirm stablecoins are no longer niche – they’re actively being used for high-value transfers, remittances, and commerce – all of which could become a significantly more pronounced challenges for the likes of Visa and Mastercard if the GENIUS Act becomes a law. 

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European stock markets opened broadly lower on Thursday, with the regional Stoxx 600 index retreating as investors continued to grapple with heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and the looming possibility of US involvement in the conflict.

Despite the generally negative sentiment, the oil and gas sector, along with telecommunications, showed some resilience.

The trading day began on a decidedly cautious note across the continent.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.63% in early dealings, reflecting a clear risk-off sentiment among global investors.

This downturn was widespread, with most sectors trading in negative territory as market participants closely monitored the volatile situation in the Middle East.

The ongoing tensions, which have seen direct exchanges between Israel and Iran, and persistent speculation about potential US intervention, have kept financial markets on edge.

This uncertainty is prompting investors to reassess risk and, in many cases, reduce exposure to equities.

Bright spots emerge: energy and telecoms swim against the tide

Despite the overarching negativity, there were a few notable exceptions.

Energy stocks continued their upward trajectory, with the Stoxx Oil and Gas index climbing 0.8%.

This strength in the energy sector is a direct consequence of rising crude oil prices, which have been driven higher by concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East uncertainty.

ICE Brent Crude futures were last seen trading up 0.83% at $77.33 a barrel, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments in key oil-producing regions.

The telecommunications sector also managed to nudge slightly higher against the broader market decline.

A significant contributor to this was Vodafone, whose shares rose by 1%.

The positive momentum for the telecom giant came after it announced that Pilar López would be joining the company as its new chief financial officer, effective from October.

López will be moving to Vodafone from Microsoft, a high-profile appointment that appears to have been well-received by investors.

The divergent performance – with defensive sectors like oil and gas gaining while most others fall – highlights the complex interplay of geopolitical risk, energy market dynamics, and company-specific news currently shaping European equity markets.

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A cohort of Democratic lawmakers from Texas has formally requested that Tesla postpone the highly anticipated launch of its robotaxi service in Austin.

The legislators are urging the electric vehicle giant to delay the rollout until September, when a new state law governing autonomous driving is scheduled to come into effect, citing concerns over public safety and the need to build public trust.

In a letter sent on Wednesday, the group of Austin-area lawmakers argued that delaying the launch, which Tesla CEO Elon Musk had “tentatively” suggested could happen as early as this Sunday, “is in the best interest of both public safety and building public trust in Tesla’s operations.”

They emphasized the importance of aligning the robotaxi service with the forthcoming state regulations.

Should Tesla decide to proceed with its launch this month, thereby predating the new law, the lawmakers have asked the company to provide “detailed information” demonstrating precisely how Tesla intends to comply with the new state legislation once it is operational.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the lawmakers’ letter.

This request comes at a pivotal moment for Tesla.

Last year, Elon Musk publicly staked the company’s future heavily on the success of its autonomous-driving technology, signaling a strategic pivot away from solely chasing rapid growth in electric-vehicle sales.

The impending Austin robotaxi rollout has been under intense scrutiny from investors and analysts, many of whom attribute a significant portion of Tesla’s stock market valuation to the high hopes pinned on its yet-to-be-delivered robotaxi services and humanoid robots.

Navigating a shifting legal landscape in Texas

The political and legal context for this request is noteworthy.

It remains unclear how much influence a letter from Democratic lawmakers will exert in Texas, a state where Republicans control the governorship and hold majorities in both legislative chambers.

Under current Texas law, autonomous-vehicle companies are permitted to operate their vehicles anywhere in the state, provided the vehicles meet basic registration and insurance requirements.

However, new legislation, which successfully passed the Texas legislature last month but has not yet been signed by the governor, is set to change this landscape.

This new law would, for the first time, require autonomous-vehicle companies to apply for specific authorization to operate within the state.

Crucially, the new legislation would grant state authorities the power to revoke permits if they deem a driverless vehicle to be one that “endangers the public.”

Furthermore, companies like Tesla would be required to provide the state with comprehensive information on how police and first responders can effectively interact with and manage these autonomous vehicles in emergency situations.

Scant details on Tesla’s Robotaxi blueprint

Elon Musk first announced in January that Tesla would be offering “autonomous ride-hailing for money in Austin, in June.” Since that pronouncement, details about the planned Austin robotaxi launch have been sparse.

Musk has indicated that the initial rollout would begin with a small fleet of 10 or 20 Model Y vehicles and that the company would initially operate in “only the parts of Austin that we consider to be the safest.”

However, key operational details—such as who the initial passengers will be, how Tesla will charge for rides, the specific areas of Austin where the service will operate, and the extent of remote monitoring and operation of the vehicles—have not yet been disclosed by Musk or Tesla.

This lack of transparency likely contributes to the lawmakers’ call for a more cautious and legally aligned approach.

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The possible US strike on Iran has become a hot topic worldwide, dominating headlines and global discussions

Trump’s recent remarks have indicated that the United States is thinking seriously about joining Israel’s conflict with Iran. 

The Israel-Iran conflict, which is entering its first week now, has witnessed some intense exchanges of missiles, which have killed many innocent civilians on both sides. 

But a possible US strike can change the game completely, as it may widen the conflict, with experts even expecting countries like China or Russia to react. 

So far, Donald Trump has been ambiguous about his plans, as on Tuesday he claimed that he knew where Iran’s supreme leader is hiding and demanded his ‘unconditional surrender.’

“I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do. I can tell you this, Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate. And I said, Why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction,” the US President told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.

US strike may force China, Russia to show teeth

As the situation remains sensitive, Invezz news spoke with a few experts to gauge what a possible US strike on Iran could mean for geopolitics. 

Professor Harsh V Pant, Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, said that a US strike will complicate things further as Iran has already warned about retaliation. 

However, he sounded more concerned about how the US strike may widen the conflict may even draw China and Russia into the game. 

“A US strike on Iran will force the Islamic nation to take strong countermeasures, and there will be widening of the conflict in some fundamental ways.”

The expert further added that so far, the conflict is regional, but the involvement of the United States can spiral it into global tensions. 

“With the US entering into it, other powers like China and Russia might also be willing to play their hands in the conflict.” 

Professor Pant mentioned that choking off the critical Strait of Hormuz can be part of Iran’s countermeasures, apart from an attack on US personnel and military assets in the Middle East.   

US is already involved in Israel-Iran conflict

Dr. Martand Jha, Doctoral Fellow at Russian and Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University hinted that the US strikes are much closer than expected. 

He said that the Donald Trump administration is already involved in the conflict, and as the war continues, the Middle East region is losing its stability. 

“The involvement of the US in the Israel-Iran conflict is already there for everyone to see. The alliance between the US and Israel has a chequered legacy to it,” Dr. Martand said. 

Dr. Martand added that the US is deeply involved in the conflict, as any great power would be. While emphasizing on the stakes of the conflict, the expert warned about the ripple effects of continuing instability in the Middle East. 

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The Switzerland National Bank (SNB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0% on Thursday, deepening its dovish stance amid renewed concerns over deflation and persistent strength in the Swiss franc.

The widely anticipated move raises the possibility of Switzerland revisiting negative interest rates for the first time since 2022.

“With today’s easing of our monetary policy, we are countering the lower inflationary pressure,” President Martin Schlegel said in Zurich.

“We will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust our monetary policy if necessary” he said, adding that “we remain willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.”

Why is Switzerland facing deflation?

While most global central banks remain focused on taming inflation, Switzerland stands apart.

Consumer prices in the country fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May due to persistent disinflationary forces.

The SNB is now trying to curb a deflationary cycle that has plagued the economy in past decades.

The appreciation of the Swiss franc has been a key driver of these deflationary trends.

Often seen as a safe-haven currency, the franc tends to gain during periods of global economic or political uncertainty.

That in turn makes imports cheaper, dragging down the consumer price index in a country heavily reliant on foreign goods.

“As a safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc tends to appreciate when there is stress on world markets,” said Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING.

This systematically pushes down the price of imported products. Switzerland is a small, open economy, and imports account for a large proportion of CPI inflation.

SNB sets itself apart from global peers

The SNB’s rate cut stands in contrast to the more cautious tone adopted by other major central banks.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, and the Bank of England was expected to follow suit.

The European Central Bank, having recently cut rates, has also signalled a pause.

By lowering its benchmark rate to zero, the SNB now holds the lowest policy rate among major developed economies.

This places Swiss banks under renewed pressure, as income from customer deposits vanishes and lending margins shrink.

The SNB is also testing an interest rate level it has never used before—neither during its descent into negative territory in 2014 nor during its exit in 2022.

Economists say this could mark a transitional phase ahead of a deeper dive below zero.

Will Switzerland return to negative interest rates?

Martin Schlegel acknowledged that the new policy rate brings borrowing costs “to the verge of negative territory,” and warned of the potential side effects such a move could bring.

“We are also aware that negative interest can have undesirable side effects and presents challenges for many economic agents,” he said.

Economists at ODDO BHF forecast another 25 basis point cut as early as September.

“The return of negative rates aims to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc and boost domestic credit,” the firm said, adding that the SNB may reintroduce exemption mechanisms to shield domestic banks.

Some analysts even see the potential for deeper cuts.

Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision that he expects rates to be cut to -0.25% this year, but noted that the SNB could go even lower.

There are risks that the SNB will go further in the future if inflationary pressures don’t start to increase, and the lowest the policy rate could go is -0.75%, the rate it reached in the 2010s.

Currency market interventions are also back on the table. While the SNB avoided such moves in 2023, it remains under scrutiny.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury added Switzerland to its watchlist of economies for foreign exchange practices, warning against currency manipulation—a charge previously leveled during Donald Trump’s first term.

Inflation forecasts revised down as risks linger

Adding to the dovish tone, the SNB lowered its inflation projections across the board.

It now expects inflation to average just 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027—revised down from earlier forecasts of 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.8% respectively.

While recent increases in oil prices, driven by tensions between Israel and Iran, could provide some near-term relief, the broader outlook remains weak.

Switzerland’s unusually strong currency, muted consumer demand, and fragile global trade suggest that price pressures will stay low for the foreseeable future.

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The UK’s high-speed rail project HS2 will not meet its scheduled 2033 completion date or stay within budget, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told Parliament on Tuesday, citing systemic failures, mismanagement, and rising costs.

The announcement marks the latest setback for a troubled infrastructure programme once billed as a transformational project for the country’s transport network.

Alexander said she had received a “bleak” assessment from the new chief executive of HS2 Ltd, Mark Wild, who warned that the current trajectory of cost, scope, and timeline was “unsustainable.”

HS2 has been under construction for over a decade and has already seen its original plans significantly scaled back.

First trains will not run by 2033; project costs balloon

“There is no reasonable way to deliver on the 2033 target,” Alexander said, referencing Wild’s interim report.

She added that it would take several more months to establish a new schedule and cost estimate.

“I am drawing a line in the sand,” she told MPs, “and we are resetting how major infrastructure will be delivered in this country.”

Since HS2 was approved in 2012 with an initial price tag of £33bn, cost estimates have ballooned.

By 2013, the figure had climbed to £50bn, and by 2020, independent assessments projected eventual costs as high as £106bn.

The latest official estimates put the project’s remaining cost between £45bn and £57bn in 2019 prices.

Wild’s letter warned that unless the government renegotiates major engineering contracts and enforces stricter oversight, costs will continue to rise.

Flawed contracting model and rushed construction to blame for persistent delays

Wild’s report identified a series of longstanding issues that have plagued the project since its inception.

These include launching construction without finalised designs, a flawed contracting model, and major capability gaps in HS2 Ltd’s workforce.

The testing phase alone, he said, could take three years — far longer than the previously assumed 14 months

Wild has blamed the “cost-plus” nature of current contracts — which reward contractors regardless of overruns — for undermining budgetary discipline.

Financial analysts have described HS2 Ltd’s relationships with contractors as unbalanced and lacking proper accountability.

“The main source of cost overruns, as Stewart and Mark Wild (the ex-Crossrail chief executive now charged with salvaging the shambles) agree, were the works contracts,” writes Nils Pratley, The Guardian’s financial editor.

“The contracting model, combined with unrealistic targets, turned the contracts into “cost-plus” arrangements whereby contractors had little to no incentive to hit cost targets. Companies rang rings around the department and its arm’s-length body, HS2 Ltd,” he added.

Further, according to Wild, construction on HS2 began prematurely, before designs were stabilised, leading to unrealistic schedules and budgets.

His report also flagged a mismatch of skills within HS2 Ltd, which he described as “imbalanced,” with excessive corporate functions and critical shortages in commercial and technical expertise.

External shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the war in Ukraine contributed to delays, Wild noted, but they merely compounded deeper, long-standing inefficiencies.

The Institution of Civil Engineers has similarly criticised the project’s contracting model, saying it created an “imbalance of power” in favour of construction firms.

Shadow transport secretary concedes ‘mistakes were made’

Shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon also acknowledged the project’s turbulent history.

“Mistakes were made in the delivery of HS2,” he said, adding that the Conservatives bore responsibility for repeatedly delaying the project and letting costs spiral.

He pointed to the decision in 2023 under then-prime minister Rishi Sunak to scrap the Birmingham-Manchester leg as an outcome of longstanding failures.

Heidi Alexander confirmed that two reviews are underway to establish new protocols for large-scale infrastructure.

One, led by Wild, focuses on internal project management.

Another, by James Stewart, examines governance and delivery models. Both are intended to inform how future megaprojects are handled in the UK.

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US markets closed largely unchanged on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

The central bank opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at its current level, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating a cautious approach.

Powell conveyed that the Fed would assess the impact of President Donald Trump’s recently implemented tariffs on inflation before considering further rate adjustments.

The S&P 500 was down 0.03% to 5,980.86. The Dow Jones fell 44 points to 42,171.66. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.13% up at 19,546.27.

Coinbase, Wells Fargo, and Intel were among the top gainers in the S&P 500 on Wednesday.

Marvell Technology Inc. was a top gainer on the Nasdaq.

Coinbase gained 17% in the session along with USDC issuer Circle after the US Senate passed the landmark GENIUS Act, which will provide a framework enabling private entities to issue stablecoins.

Intel gained after announcing additions to the leadership group, including the engineering division.

The struggling company aims to make a turnaround in its AI chip offerings to compete against market leader Nvidia.

Marvell stock rallied 7% after announcing a collaboration with Empower Semiconductor on developing integrated power solutions for its custom silicon platforms.

Mastercard and Visa were among the top losers in the S&P 500.

Both stocks fell more than 5% as the GENIUS Act provides momentum to the corporations planning to issue stablecoins.

Amazon and Walmart reportedly are planning to introduce their own stablecoins.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid tariff concerns

On Wednesday, the Fed’s key rate was kept unchanged within a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, a level it has held since December.

The central bank’s update presented investors with a mixed outlook.

While policymakers still anticipate potential rate cuts later this year, they concurrently suggested a risk of stagflation.

The projections from policymakers indicated two more quarter-point rate reductions for the current year.

However, they revised down the forecast for economic growth in 2025 to a modest 1.4% and simultaneously increased the outlook for core inflation to 3.1%.

During a press conference that followed the decision, Powell acknowledged that tariffs were “beginning to see some effects” on inflation.

Despite this, he affirmed that policymakers are “well positioned to wait” before enacting any changes to interest rates.

Earlier on Wednesday, the US President Donald Trump once again criticized Powell and other Federal Reserve officials for their reluctance to ease monetary policy.

President Trump asserted that the federal funds rate should be at least two percentage points lower, reportedly characterizing Powell as “stupid” for not advocating for a committee decision to cut rates.

Federal Reserve officials have reportedly hesitated to adjust rates, expressing concerns that the tariffs implemented by President Trump this year could lead to increased inflation in the coming months.

To date, various price indicators have not shown a significant impact from these duties.

The delayed effect of the tariffs, combined with a softening in consumer demand and an accumulation of inventories preceding the April 2 “liberation day” announcement, have collectively contributed to mitigating their overall impact.

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Nippon Steel’s CEO stated on Thursday that the US government’s golden share in US Steel will not impede the Japanese steelmaker from taking any management actions it deems appropriate.

Confirming the agreement to grant the US government unusual power to help conclude the 18-month acquisition battle, Eiji Hashimoto spoke at a Tokyo press conference, according to a Reuters report

The statement comes a day after Nippon Steel, Japan’s leading steelmaker, finalised its $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel.

The US government now holds a non-economic golden share and the president can appoint a board member in US Steel, due to the national security agreement signed with the Donald Trump administration.

“We won’t be constrained in pursuing anything we aim to do,” Hashimoto said, when asked how the golden share would influence management freedom.

He stated that Nippon Steel maintain sufficient managerial freedom, adding that the Japanese company had agreed to the US government’s request to oversee the investment’s execution and had put forth a golden share structure as a direct method to reflect this oversight.

To salvage the deal, the companies made an unusual concession, granting the US government an unprecedented level of control. This came after a difficult approval process, marked by significant political opposition.

Strategic vision and US investment

Hashimoto stated:

We struggled to complete this deal, but our global strategy is starting to take shape.

He also mentioned that the company plans to explore further global expansion.

The US government’s “golden share” in US Steel grants it veto power over several key decisions. These include relocating the company’s Pittsburgh headquarters, transferring jobs internationally, changing the company name, or acquiring a rival business in the future.

“We have spent 2 trillion yen ($14 billion) to acquire US Steel…We have no intention of relocating its headquarters or shifting production or jobs overseas,” Hashimoto said.

Under the terms of the agreement with the administration, Nippon Steel is obligated to invest approximately $11 billion in capital within the US by 2028.

Hashimoto stated that he saw no problem with the requirement, as the company planned to increase investments beyond its current scope. 

Future growth

He added that the Trump administration’s policy change towards higher tariffs had elevated the strategic importance of the US Steel acquisition.

Hashimoto told reporters:

This deal is not only a necessary and effective strategy to restore our company to the number one position globally, but also the only path for US Steel to revitalize and grow.

Nippon Steel’s Vice Chairman, Takahiro Mori, who was the lead negotiator for the deal, stated that the company is evaluating various financing options, including a potential capital raise, to support its investment strategies in the US.

“The increased leverage from acquisition debt remains a clear credit negative,” Roman Schorr, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, was quoted in the report. 

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Hong Kong stocks tumbled sharply on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the US Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates triggered a wave of risk aversion across Asian markets.

By 2:09 pm local time, the benchmark Hang Seng Index had plunged 463 points to 23,247.38, breaching the crucial 23,500 support level and testing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at 23,230.

The sell-off reflected investor anxiety over a potential US military intervention in the Middle East following reports that former President Donald Trump had approved attack plans for Iran.

Middle East tensions and Fed policy drive market volatility

The steep losses came as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but signaled caution regarding future economic conditions, even as traders remained focused on unfolding geopolitical risks.

The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, coupled with US fighter jet deployments and threats of retaliation, led investors to seek safer assets.

A fragile global backdrop continues to weigh on sentiment, particularly in Asia.

On June 18, US markets ended mixed — the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.13% gain, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 posted slight losses.

However, Asian markets bore the brunt of investor fears on June 19, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.02% in the morning session and China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite also retreating.

Tech, retail stocks hit hard as oil shares rally

Technology and consumer names were among the biggest casualties in Thursday’s trading.

The Hang Seng Tech Index shed 2.36% as heavyweight stocks slumped.

E-commerce platforms Meituan and JD.com fell more than 3%, while Alibaba and Baidu declined 1.96% and 1.56% respectively.

Pop Mart, the toy manufacturer known for its Labubu figurines, dropped 5.3% to HK$248.60.

Luxury jeweller Laopu Gold slumped 6.4%.

China’s leading condiment maker, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food, saw a modest 0.14% gain to HK$36.35, after briefly trading below its IPO offer price of HK$36.30 on debut.

Electric vehicle makers tracked broader weakness, with BYD down 2.51% and Li Auto off 1.34%.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index dropped 2.42%, reflecting wider concerns about economic growth and housing demand in China.

In contrast, some oil and gas stocks surged amid rising concerns over energy supply disruption.

JX Energy soared 68%, while Petro-king Oilfield Services climbed 20.8%.

Source: FXEmpire

Hang Seng outlook: ceasefire could take index to 24,000; US involvement could push it down to 23,000

Analysts caution that further volatility is likely, with markets highly sensitive to any military developments or diplomatic breakthroughs.

FXEmpire noted that a ceasefire in the Middle East or meaningful progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal could lift the Hang Seng Index toward the 24,000 mark.

Should the index break and hold above 24,000, it may pave the way for a retest of the June 11 peak at 24,439.

On the downside, however, US military involvement could drag the index down to 23,000, with further losses possibly extending to 22,500.

Market sentiment may find some support if Beijing signals new stimulus measures.

Near-term resistance stands at 23,500, 24,000, and 24,439 — the high from June 11.

Support lies at the 50-day EMA (23,230), followed by 23,000 and 22,500. Short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, but contingent on geopolitical and policy developments.

Until then, risk sentiment is expected to remain fragile.

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