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AUD/USD forecast: forms H&S pattern ahead of RBA decision

The AUD/USD exchange rate has retreated in the past few days ahead of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It was trading at 0.6278, down by almost 10% from its highest point in 2024. It has also pulled back by almost 2% from its highest point this year.

RBA interest rate decision

The AUD/USD pair has remained on edge as the market waited for the upcoming RBA interest rate decision and Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The RBA has emerged as one of the most hawkish central banks in the developed world in this cycle. 

It resisted pressure to cut interest rates in 2024 even as the economic growth remained on edge and inflation dropped. 

The central bank delivered the first interest rate cut in its first meeting of the year, and officials remained hawkish. They signaled that they would wait and see before cutting rates again this year, leading to speculation that they would cut again in May.

Recent economic numbers have raised bets that the RBA may decide to cut rates this week. A preliminary report by the statistics agency showed that prices cooled in February. 

The headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat in February from January. It then dropped slightly to 2.4% from the previous 2.5%. 

The trimmed mean CPI rose by 2.7%, slowing from 2.8% in January. While these numbers are higher than the RBA’s target of 2.0%, they are moving in the right direction. They are also lower than in the US and other countries that are cutting interest rates.

Meanwhile, Australia’s unemployment rate ticked up in January as the job creation trajectory eased. The jobless rate rose to 4.1% as the economy added 44,300 jobs, lower than the previous month’s 60,000.

Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs

Some analysts call for the RBA to cut rates because of the ongoing concerns about the global economy. Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on automakers last week. He is also expected to have his Liberation Day on Wednesday, when he unveils his reciprocal tariffs.

To a large extent, Australia should be spared from these tariffs because the US has a trade surplus with the country. However, Australia may be affected because it does a lot of business with countries like China which may be hit the hardest.

These tariffs may push the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place because of stagflation in the US. Stagflation is a situation where a country has a high inflation and slow economic growth.

Stagflation is a highly difficult situation to deal with since an action to solve inflation often hurts the economic growth. Similarly, Federal Reserve cuts to boost growth often leads to higher inflation. 

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD chart by TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few days. It has dropped from a high of 0.6391, its highest swing on March 18.

The pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern, a popular bearish sign in technical analysis. It is slightly above the neckline at 0.6267.

It has moved below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are all pointing downwards. 

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.6187, down by 1.50% below the current level. This price is its lowest level on March 4. A move above the resistance point at 0.6315 will invalidate the bearish view.

The post AUD/USD forecast: forms H&S pattern ahead of RBA decision appeared first on Invezz

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Is the “vibecession” back? Here’s what the data really says

The vibecession is back in the headlines. The term is used to describe a disconnect between how people feel about the economy and how the economy is actually performing.

Consumer sentiment has dropped to multi-year lows, inflation expectations have surged, and markets are reacting nervously. 

At the same time, spending and employment data remain strong. 

The divergence between perception and reality is growing, but this time, the stakes are higher.

What happens next may depend not just on economics, but on policy and psychology.

Is the American consumer really in trouble?

The latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 57 in March, its lowest reading in more than two years. 

Expectations for the future dropped by 18% from February, the sharpest fall since 2021.

Two-thirds of Americans now expect unemployment to rise over the next year, the highest share since 2009. 

Inflation expectations have jumped as well, with consumers now anticipating 5% inflation over the next year and 4.1% annually over the next 5 to 10 years.

That’s the highest long-run figure since 1993.

Source: Bloomberg

But nevertheless, beneath these alarming figures, the fundamentals remain surprisingly intact.

Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in February, and core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, ticked up 0.4% as well, reaching 2.8% year-over-year.

These were some good inflation readings, all things considered. 

Jobless claims are low, and the labor market shows no broad-based weakness, at least outside the federal sector. 

Credit card spending per household has risen 1.5% year-over-year, according to Bank of America, which shows that so far, consumers aren’t so eager to cut back on spending.

In short, the numbers don’t scream recession. But that doesn’t mean the situation is stable.

How much of this is tariffs, and how much is fear?

The renewed wave of anxiety among American consumers and investors has coincided almost perfectly with a new trade policy push from the Trump administration. 

Tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled to 20%, with additional levies on cars, steel, aluminum, and other goods either in effect or expected soon. 

According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, the proposed 2025 tariff structure could raise the effective tariff rate to 8%, the highest since the 1960s.

Estimates from the Yale Budget Lab suggest these policies could reduce average household disposable income by $2,000 per year, adjusted for inflation. 

That’s not insignificant, especially when 25 to 30% of Americans already live paycheck to paycheck.

But the economic impact is not just direct. The anticipation of higher prices and the media coverage surrounding it may be shaping behaviour even before tariffs take full effect. 

Consumer sentiment often falls before actual spending does. If enough people believe inflation will rise and jobs will be lost, their spending decisions may turn those fears into reality.

Is this how stagflation begins?

The term stagflation refers to the toxic combination of slow growth and high inflation.

It was rare before the 1970s but has since become shorthand for a worst-case scenario in macroeconomics. 

Some economists are now warning that the current conditions fit the early shape of stagflation.

Core inflation has accelerated for four consecutive months. Real consumer spending is losing momentum.

Imports are surging ahead of expected tariffs, which may weigh on GDP.

Goldman Sachs recently cut its forecast for first-quarter GDP growth to 0.6%, down from 1%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has gone further, projecting a 0.5% contraction.

Meanwhile, core PCE inflation over the past three months is running at a 3.6% annualized pace, the highest since March 2024. 

If inflation stays hot and growth turns negative, the Fed will be stuck between two hard options: raise rates and deepen the slowdown, or hold and let inflation linger.

Can consumer resilience hold the line?

Liquid assets among households remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Air travel has rebounded to 2024 levels, and spending on durable goods like cars and electronics has picked up after a weak January. 

Tax refunds are up more than 5% year-over-year, which could give short-term support to retail and discretionary spending in April.

However, some of this strength may be temporary or overstated. Much of the February income boost came from government benefits. 

Discretionary service spending, such as at restaurants and hotels, fell sharply in February.

Consumers may still be spending, but they are becoming more cautious about where and how. This is the kind of behavior that often signals a turning point.

What if perception is reality?

The current reality is that most of the published data we now have in our hands is lagging.

Most of the Trump administration policies haven’t yet gone into effect, therefore, their real impact cannot yet be seen or calculated.

But economics is not just about numbers. When a large enough share of the population believes the economy is worsening, it changes how people act. That, in turn, affects the actual economy.

This is the essence of the vibecession: the belief in decline becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But the problem now is more structural. The public’s inflation expectations have detached from central bank targets, and their confidence in the future has collapsed across income, political, and demographic groups. 

Even high-income households, which are typically more optimistic, are now pulling back on spending.

If this becomes entrenched, it could force the Federal Reserve to choose between short-term stability and long-term credibility.

For now, the hard data suggests the economy is still growing, albeit slowly, but public confidence is unraveling, while consumers and investors are anxious. 

That gap cannot hold forever. Either sentiment will recover, or reality will catch up to the mood.

The coming months will reveal which side bends first.

The post Is the “vibecession” back? Here’s what the data really says appeared first on Invezz

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Russia, US discuss potential cooperation on rare earth minerals projects

President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy announced in a statement released on Monday that Russia and the United States have initiated discussions on collaborative rare earth metals and other projects within Russia, with some companies already showing interest, according to a Reuters report.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s attempts to mediate an end to the conflict in Ukraine, a proposed minerals cooperation deal between Kyiv and Moscow appears to be faltering. 

President Trump indicated on Sunday that President Zelenskiy of Ukraine is looking to withdraw from the agreement.

US-Russia partnership

In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a potential collaboration with the US, suggesting joint exploration and development of rare earth metal deposits within Russia’s borders. 

This strategic move highlights the significance of rare earth metals, essential components in advanced technologies such as lasers and military equipment, and underscores Russia’s substantial reserves, ranking fifth globally.

Putin’s proposition reflects a potential shift in the geopolitical landscape, signaling a willingness to engage with America in a mutually beneficial partnership. 

The proposal also carries potential economic benefits for both nations.

For Russia, collaboration could attract foreign investment, technological expertise, and accelerate the development of its rare earth resources. 

The US, on the other hand, could gain greater access to a critical supply of rare earth metals, reducing its dependence on other sources and mitigating potential supply chain disruptions.

However, the proposal’s reception in the United States remains uncertain, with potential opposition from those wary of closer ties with Russia and advocates for domestic rare earth production.

Discussions

Discussions have already commenced, according to Kirill Dmitriev, Kremlin special envoy on international economic and investment cooperation, in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper published Monday.

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund said:

Rare earth metals are an important area for cooperation, and, of course, we have begun discussions on various rare earth metals and (other) projects in Russia.

Some companies have already expressed interest in the projects, according to Dmitriev, who was a member of Russia’s negotiating team at discussions with US officials in Saudi Arabia in February. 

He did not provide any further information or identify any of the companies.

Trump expressed anger towards Putin on Sunday and threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on purchasers of Russian oil if Putin obstructs his attempts to resolve the war in Ukraine.

NBC News reported that Trump was very angry after Putin criticised the credibility of Zelenskiy’s leadership last week. 

Trump later expressed his disappointment with Putin to reporters but remained optimistic, stating that progress was being made “step by step.”

Russia’s reserves

The rest of the world is trying to develop its own supplies of rare earth metals, due to China’s control of 95% of global production and supplies. These metals are essential for industries such as defence and consumer electronics.

While the US Geological Survey estimates Russia’s rare earth metal reserves at 3.8 million metric tons, Moscow’s estimates are significantly higher.

The Natural Resources Ministry reports that Russia had 28.7 million tons of rare earth metal reserves as of January 1, 2023.

Of that total, 3.8 million tons were either under development or ready for development.

The next round of Russia-US talks, which may occur in mid-April in Saudi Arabia, could include further discussion of the cooperation, Izvestia reported.

The post Russia, US discuss potential cooperation on rare earth minerals projects appeared first on Invezz

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Business

AUD/USD forecast: forms H&S pattern ahead of RBA decision

The AUD/USD exchange rate has retreated in the past few days ahead of the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It was trading at 0.6278, down by almost 10% from its highest point in 2024. It has also pulled back by almost 2% from its highest point this year.

RBA interest rate decision

The AUD/USD pair has remained on edge as the market waited for the upcoming RBA interest rate decision and Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.

The RBA has emerged as one of the most hawkish central banks in the developed world in this cycle. 

It resisted pressure to cut interest rates in 2024 even as the economic growth remained on edge and inflation dropped. 

The central bank delivered the first interest rate cut in its first meeting of the year, and officials remained hawkish. They signaled that they would wait and see before cutting rates again this year, leading to speculation that they would cut again in May.

Recent economic numbers have raised bets that the RBA may decide to cut rates this week. A preliminary report by the statistics agency showed that prices cooled in February. 

The headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat in February from January. It then dropped slightly to 2.4% from the previous 2.5%. 

The trimmed mean CPI rose by 2.7%, slowing from 2.8% in January. While these numbers are higher than the RBA’s target of 2.0%, they are moving in the right direction. They are also lower than in the US and other countries that are cutting interest rates.

Meanwhile, Australia’s unemployment rate ticked up in January as the job creation trajectory eased. The jobless rate rose to 4.1% as the economy added 44,300 jobs, lower than the previous month’s 60,000.

Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs

Some analysts call for the RBA to cut rates because of the ongoing concerns about the global economy. Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on automakers last week. He is also expected to have his Liberation Day on Wednesday, when he unveils his reciprocal tariffs.

To a large extent, Australia should be spared from these tariffs because the US has a trade surplus with the country. However, Australia may be affected because it does a lot of business with countries like China which may be hit the hardest.

These tariffs may push the Federal Reserve between a rock and a hard place because of stagflation in the US. Stagflation is a situation where a country has a high inflation and slow economic growth.

Stagflation is a highly difficult situation to deal with since an action to solve inflation often hurts the economic growth. Similarly, Federal Reserve cuts to boost growth often leads to higher inflation. 

AUD/USD technical analysis

AUD/USD chart by TradingView

The four-hour chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few days. It has dropped from a high of 0.6391, its highest swing on March 18.

The pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern, a popular bearish sign in technical analysis. It is slightly above the neckline at 0.6267.

It has moved below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are all pointing downwards. 

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.6187, down by 1.50% below the current level. This price is its lowest level on March 4. A move above the resistance point at 0.6315 will invalidate the bearish view.

The post AUD/USD forecast: forms H&S pattern ahead of RBA decision appeared first on Invezz

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Business

Top 4 FTSE 100 shares with the highest dividend yield to buy

The FTSE 100 index soared to a record high this year as European stocks continued to do well. It peaked at £8,908 on Monday, up by over 77% from its lowest point in 2020. It was trading at £8,660 ahead of the upcoming Liberation Day. 

The Footsie index has a dividend yield of about 3.5%. This article looks at some of the top FTSE 100 shares with the highest dividend yields to buy and hold in 2025. 

FTSE 100 index chart

Legal & General (LGEN)

Legal & General is one of the highest-yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 index, with a dividend yield of 8.76%. That yield means that a £100,000 investment in the company will bring in about £8,700 a year in dividends. 

LGEN is one of the biggest players in the insurance and investment industry in the UK, with over £1.1 trillion in assets. The most recent results showed that the company’s business continued doing well in 2024 as its core operating profit rose by 6% to £1.6 billion. The profit before tax jumped to £542 million.

The Legal & General share price has done well this year, rising by over 12% from January. This trend may continue as investors swing to defensive stocks as the trade war heats up.

Taylor Wimpey (TW)

Tylor Wimpey is another top FTSE 100 stock with a high dividend yield. It pays a yield of about 8.6%, even after the company announced that it would slash its payout this year.  This explains why the Taylor Wimpey share price has crashed by 31% from its 2024 highs.

The dividend cut came as the company’s growth slowed. Taylor Wimpey’s annual revenue dropped to £3.4 billion in 2024 from £3.5 billion a year earlier, and £4.4 billion in 2022. This happened as the number of housing unit completions dropped to 10,593 from 14,154. Its annual profit dropped to £320 million. 

A dividend cut is never nice since it leads to smaller returns over time. Still, analysts expect that Taylor Wimpey will return to growth once the ongoing challenges stabilize. 

Vodafone (VOD)

Vodafone is another high-yielding FTSE 100 index stock. Like Taylor Wimpey, the telecom giant slashed its dividend in 2024. Even so, Vodafone has a dividend of 7.7%, much higher than the FTSE 100 index average. 

Vodafone’s revenue rose by 5% in the third quarter, with its service revenue rising by 5.6% to 7.9 billion euros. This growth came from its Africa, Europe, and UK and was partially offset by Germany, where its revenue tumbled by 6.4%. 

Vodafone hopes to continue growing steadily, especially after its merger with the UK’s Three concludes this year. 

British American Tobacco (BAT)

Tobacco stocks are known for their high dividend payouts. Most recently, most companies in the industry, including BAT, Altria, and Philip Morris, have done well. 

BAT has a dividend yield of 7.7%, making it one of the biggest ones in the FTSE 100 index. Its dividend will likely be stable over time because of its business performance. While its sales are not growing so fast, the company’s cost actions have made it highly profitable.

Other top yielders in the FTSE 100 index

Many other FTSE 100 index constituents have a higher-than-average yield. Some of the top blue-chip stocks to consider are firms like Rio Tinto (6.5%), WPP (6.6%), Aviva (6.37%), Schroders (6%), HSBC (5.76%), and BP (5.5%).

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Business

Rolls-Royce share price hits turbulence: can it still surge to 1,000p?

The Rolls-Royce share price has stalled in the past few ways as concerns about costs and supply chain issues remained. The RR stock retreated to 775p on Friday, down from the year-to-date high of 817p. This article explores why the RR share price may keep pumping this year.

Donald Trump Liberation Day tariffs won’t hurt

The main reason why the Rolls-Royce share price may keep doing well this year is that its business will not be directly affected by the upcoming Liberation Day tariffs by Donald Trump. 

That’s because, while Rolls-Royce is an industrial giant, it makes most of its money in the civil aviation industry. In addition to selling its engines, the company enters long-term service contracts with airlines like IAG, Etihad, Turkish Airlines, Thai, Qatar, and Lufthansa.

Rolls-Royce sells these companies engines and then enters long-term contracts, which are paid using a pay-per-use model. Airlines typically pay a fixed rate that is calculated per engine flight hour. Airlines prefer this model because it is highly predictable. These contracts are usually long, averaging between 10 and 25 years.

Trump’s tariffs will likely not have a big impact on demand for civil aviation, meaning that the company’s civil aviation business will keep doing well in the future. 

In line with this, since its plants are spread across different countries, the company’s manufacturing business will likely not be negatively impacted by tariffs. Rolls-Royce has plants in the US that make components of its Trent engines. Its other businesses, like defense and power systems, have a large presence in the US. 

The most direct impact of Trump’s tariffs will be on the rising cost of steel and aluminum, which the company.

Read more: 3 reasons the Rolls-Royce share price may soar in 2025

Defense spending boost

The Rolls-Royce share price will likely continue doing well because of the ongoing defense spending boost. Its most recent numbers showed that the country’s defence business did well, with its revenue rising from £4.077 billion in 2023 to over £4.52 billion last year. The operating profit rose from £562 million to £644 million.

European countries are starting to boost their defence spending this year, with many of them being concerned about Donald Trump’s unreliability. Germany recently voted to pass a 500 billion spending bill.

Rolls-Royce is a key beneficiary of this because it manufactures military aircraft engines and submarines. Still, its supply chain challenges are affecting its business. 

AI power demand

The Rolls-Royce share price may do well because of the rising demand for power as data center demand rises. Its power business made £4.2 billion in 2024, higher than the £3.96 billion it made a year earlier. Its gross margins grew to 28.1%. 

This growth may continue because the company has become a major provider of engines that power data centers. Its order backlog jumped by 17% to £4.8 billion. 

Further, analysts believe that Rolls-Royce share price is cheap despite its recent surge. Morningstar analysts have placed a fair value at 960p, up by 25% from the current level.

Rolls-Royce share price analysis

RR stock price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the RR stock price peaked at 817p this year. It has struggled to move above that level several times, forming a risky double-top pattern.

The stock has remained above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have pointed downwards.

Therefore, the stock will likely be volatile in the coming days amid tariff woes and then make a bullish breakout later this year. A surge to over 960p and 1,000p will be validated if the stock rises above the double-top point at 817p. 

Read more: Will the surging Rolls-Royce share price 1,000p in 2025?

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Business

Top reasons why Alibaba stock price is about to explode higher

Alibaba stock price has stalled this month as the recent surge faded. BABA dropped to $132.45 on Monday, down by 11% from its highest point this year, meaning that it has moved into a technical correction. This article explores the technical and fundamental reasons why the BABA stock may be on the cusp of a strong surge.

Alibaba stock price has strong technicals

The first main reason why the BABA stock price will likely surge is that it has strong technicals. The daily chart shows that the BABA stock bottomed at $65.50 in 2024 and then surged to a high of $148.15. 

It has moved above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, a sign that the uptrend is still strong. Most importantly, there are signs that the Alibaba share price is slowly forming a bullish flag pattern. This pattern comprises a vertical line and a rectangle consolidation pattern, which is now happening. 

Alibaba stock price has also been in an Elliot Wave pattern. It has completed the first three waves, and is currently in the fourth one, which is usually a bearish one. This means that it will soon move to the fifth wave, which is usually characterized by more upsides. 

Therefore, a combination of a bullish flag pattern, strong moving averages, and Elliot Wave is a sign that the stock will have a strong bull run later this year. More bullish signs will be confirmed if the stock surges above the key resistance point at $148. A move above that level will boost the odds of the Alibaba share price soaring to $200 by the end of this year. 

BABA stock chart by TradingView

Top bullish catalysts for BABA shares

There are several bullish catalysts for the Alibaba stock price. First, Alibaba has become a highly undervalued company because of its internal and external challenges in the past few years.

Alibaba trades with a forward P/E ratio of 17.20, much lower than its American peers like Amazon and Google. The multiple is also much lower than the S&P 500 index, which has a multiple of 21. 

Second, Alibaba has become one of the biggest players in the artificial intelligence industry. It has unveiled several models that perform all tasks like text generation, and QwQ-32B, which it claims rivals that of DeepSeek. 

Alibaba’s AI models have become so successful that it has become the default platform for Apple devices in China. Therefore, the company will likely continue doing well since the AI industry is still in its infancy, 

Beijing is supportive of Chinese tech companies

Third, there are signs that Beijing is being supportive of technology companies. Earlier this week, Xi Jinping hosted the biggest tech entrepreneurs in the country, including Jack Ma, for a meeting. This means that Alibaba will likely not experience the regulatory issues it has gone through in the past few years. 

Further, Alibaba will likely not be impacted by Donald Trump’s tariffs, because it is less exposed to the United States. Also, American customers will keep buying from China because of the low costs. US semiconductor sanctions will not affect Alibaba’s cloud and AI business.

Analysts expect BABA’s business to keep doing well this year. The average revenue estimate for the current quarter is 237 billion CNY, up by 6.8% from a year earlier. This revenue growth means that its annual revenue may cross the 1 trillion yuan milestone this year.

This growth means that Alibaba will keep buying back shares, a process that has dramatically reduced its share count in the past few years. Its US share count has dropped to 2.31 billion, down from 2.63 billion in 2022. 

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Sensex index slowly forms a bullish pattern, signaling a rebound

The BSE Sensex Index has crawled back in the past few days as traders wait for Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs. It rose to a high of ₹77,415 on Monday, up from the year-to-date low of ₹72,680. It remains at almost 10% of its highest level this year. So, what next for the BSE Sensex index after forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern?

Donald Trump Liberation Day ahead

Like other global indices, the BSE Sensex Index has come under pressure in the past few weeks as investors wait for Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs that will affect most countries. 

India is one of the top countries that will be impacted because of its high trade surplus with the US and its high tariffs of US goods. The most recent data shows that India had a trade surplus of over $36.7 billion in the last fiscal year. 

India exported goods worth over $77.5 billion and imported those worth $40.7 billion. This deficit is notable because it is the primary figure that Donald Trump focuses on when looking at trade. He believes that countries with a higher trade surplus with the US were largely stealing. 

India’s top exports to the US include products like engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. 

Therefore, a major disruption in the trade relations between the US and India will likely have an impact on companies in the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex index. 

Some of the top companies that will be affected in this case are giants like Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tata Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra. Firms in the services sectors like Tata Consultancy and Infosys may be affected too.

India has made some proposals to please the United States. It has proposed to remove some taxes, including the contentious Google Tax, which companies pay a 6% levy for all online advertisements. Modi has also leveraged his personal relationship with Trump to ameliorate the impact.

Still, analysts caution that reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will come as long as it has a big surplus with the US.

Top BSE Sensex Index movers

Some BSE Sensex stocks have done well this year, helped by their market share growth and profitability. Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv stocks have led the performance of the Sensex index.

Bajaj Finance published strong financial results that demonstrated that its business was doing well. Its revenue rose by 27% in the final quarter of he year, while the assets under management (AUM) rose by 28.8%. Analysts have remained upbeat about the company, with those at BNP Paribas boosting their estimates to Rs 10,700.

Kotak Mahindra Bank share price rose by 21% this year, making it the third-best performer after Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. Its business is doing well, helped by its private bank, which has continued to grow. It has added thousands of customers as it beats other companies like UBS and HSBC in their battle for wealthy Indian customers.

The other top companies in the Sensex index this year are Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, and Nestle India. The top laggards in the index are IndusInd Bank, Zomato, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Infosys.

BSE Sensex Index analysis

Sensex index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Sensex index has crawled back in the past few days. It has moved above the upper side of the descending channel. 

The index is slowly forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. It has already completed the head, left shoulder, and a neckline. Therefore, the stock will likely drop to the right shoulder at ₹74,752. 

Sensex index has moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Therefore, the stock will likely rebound later this year, as bulls target the key resistance point at ₹82,300, its highest point in December last year.

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Stocks

What CoreWeave IPO means for Goldman Sachs

CoreWeave’s initial public offering indicates signs of a pickup in dealmaking, which could prove to be a meaningful tailwind for the likes of the Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) in 2025.

The AI cloud infrastructure company had to downsize its IPO due to macro headwinds to $40 per share.

However, it still raised $1.5 billion at a valuation of about $20 billion at a time when markets are grappling with fears of a recession ahead, which wasn’t a small feat at all.

So, shares of Goldman Sachs, down some 20% versus their year-to-date high, look attractive at writing if you’re convinced the momentum will continue in dealmaking this year.  

CoreWeave reinforced Goldman’s position in the IPO market

CoreWeave printed a high of nearly $42 in its Nasdaq debut on Friday, indicating continued interest in AI names.   

The relative success of its offering could prove a tailwind for Goldman Sachs as it may encourage other companies like Discord and Klarna to proceed with their IPO plans this year.  

And as more businesses decide in favor of going public, the bank could earn more in advisory fees and grow its topline as we proceed through the remainder of 2025.

Note that CoreWeave’s initial public offering also helped reinforce Goldman Sachs’ position as a go-to name for major tech deals.

IPO market is showing early signs of a pickup

Data from Renaissance Capital also signals a pickup in dealmaking.

According to the IPO-tracker, about 44 offerings have been completed in the first quarter, raising a total of $9.4 billion.

In the same quarter last year, a total of 30 IPOs raised some $7.8 billion.

“A strong start was cut off by a market correction near quarter end,” as per the Renaissance report.

Renaissance Capital’s data arrives only weeks before Goldman Sachs is scheduled to report earnings for its fiscal second quarter.

The consensus is for it to earn $12.74 a share versus $11.58 per share a year ago.

Apart from potential strength in dealmaking, GS shares look attractive at the current level also because they pay a dividend yield of about 2.21% at writing.

Goldman Sachs stock could climb to $680

Analysts at Wells Fargo are also bullish on Goldman Sachs.

Last week, the firm reiterated its “overweight” rating on the financial service giant.

Its $680 price target on GS indicates potential upside of about 25% from current levels.

While the White House has stirred significant uncertainty in the markets in recent months, Wells Fargo remains convinced that Goldman Sachs will significantly benefit once the government starts to deliver on its promise of deregulation.

Other notable experts who are keeping bullish on the GS share price amidst recent weakness include famed investor and Mad Money host Jim Cramer.

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Sensex index slowly forms a bullish pattern, signaling a rebound

The BSE Sensex Index has crawled back in the past few days as traders wait for Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs. It rose to a high of ₹77,415 on Monday, up from the year-to-date low of ₹72,680. It remains at almost 10% of its highest level this year. So, what next for the BSE Sensex index after forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern?

Donald Trump Liberation Day ahead

Like other global indices, the BSE Sensex Index has come under pressure in the past few weeks as investors wait for Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs that will affect most countries. 

India is one of the top countries that will be impacted because of its high trade surplus with the US and its high tariffs of US goods. The most recent data shows that India had a trade surplus of over $36.7 billion in the last fiscal year. 

India exported goods worth over $77.5 billion and imported those worth $40.7 billion. This deficit is notable because it is the primary figure that Donald Trump focuses on when looking at trade. He believes that countries with a higher trade surplus with the US were largely stealing. 

India’s top exports to the US include products like engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. 

Therefore, a major disruption in the trade relations between the US and India will likely have an impact on companies in the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex index. 

Some of the top companies that will be affected in this case are giants like Reliance Industries, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Tata Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra. Firms in the services sectors like Tata Consultancy and Infosys may be affected too.

India has made some proposals to please the United States. It has proposed to remove some taxes, including the contentious Google Tax, which companies pay a 6% levy for all online advertisements. Modi has also leveraged his personal relationship with Trump to ameliorate the impact.

Still, analysts caution that reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods will come as long as it has a big surplus with the US.

Top BSE Sensex Index movers

Some BSE Sensex stocks have done well this year, helped by their market share growth and profitability. Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv stocks have led the performance of the Sensex index.

Bajaj Finance published strong financial results that demonstrated that its business was doing well. Its revenue rose by 27% in the final quarter of he year, while the assets under management (AUM) rose by 28.8%. Analysts have remained upbeat about the company, with those at BNP Paribas boosting their estimates to Rs 10,700.

Kotak Mahindra Bank share price rose by 21% this year, making it the third-best performer after Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. Its business is doing well, helped by its private bank, which has continued to grow. It has added thousands of customers as it beats other companies like UBS and HSBC in their battle for wealthy Indian customers.

The other top companies in the Sensex index this year are Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, and Nestle India. The top laggards in the index are IndusInd Bank, Zomato, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Infosys.

BSE Sensex Index analysis

Sensex index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Sensex index has crawled back in the past few days. It has moved above the upper side of the descending channel. 

The index is slowly forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. It has already completed the head, left shoulder, and a neckline. Therefore, the stock will likely drop to the right shoulder at ₹74,752. 

Sensex index has moved to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement point. Therefore, the stock will likely rebound later this year, as bulls target the key resistance point at ₹82,300, its highest point in December last year.

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