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Citing export curbs, China’s overseas shipments of rare earth magnets plummeted in May, falling to their lowest levels in over five years and halving from April’s figures.

Beijing said this month that it would speed up its approval process, a concession made after the US and China agreed to dial back trade tensions. 

Customs cautious

In the meantime, however, industry sources say Chinese customs officials have become increasingly cautious about processing rare earth cargoes, according to a Reuters report.

The issue of proper classification is particularly pronounced for rare earth magnets. 

Current coding systems often employ a single, broad category for all magnets, failing to differentiate between the diverse chemical compositions and properties that characterise various rare earth magnet types. 

This lack of granularity in classification can lead to significant challenges in areas such as trade regulation, material tracking, and market analysis. 

According to sources quoted in the report, they emphasised that despite the wide array of rare earth magnet chemistries available and in use, the prevailing one-size-fits-all coding approach creates an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of the market and its specific segments.

China’s dominant position in the global rare earth magnet market, supplying over 90% of the world’s demand, has given it significant leverage over critical industrial sectors. 

Beijing’s ban

In early April, Beijing implemented new export controls on a range of rare earth products, specifically targeting seven medium-to-heavy rare earth elements and certain types of magnets. 

This strategic move has sent shockwaves through international supply chains, which are heavily reliant on these materials.

The affected sectors are foundational to modern economies and national security. 

The automotive industry, for instance, depends on rare earth magnets for electric vehicle motors, hybrid car components, and various electronic systems. 

The aerospace sector utilises these magnets in advanced avionics, control systems, and specialised lightweight alloys.

The semiconductor industry, the backbone of all digital technology, also relies on rare earths for polishing compounds, phosphors for displays, and specialised alloys for integrated circuits. 

Furthermore, the military equipment sector is a major consumer, incorporating rare earth magnets into precision-guided munitions, radar systems, stealth technology, and advanced communication devices. 

The imposition of these restrictions by China underscores the vulnerability of global manufacturing and defense industries to disruptions in the rare earth supply, forcing nations and companies to reassess their dependency and explore alternative sourcing strategies.

Shipments

China’s shipments of rare earth permanent magnets fell by 52.9% from April to 1,238 metric tons last month, marking the lowest monthly level since February 2020.

This data was released on Friday by the General Administration of Customs.

Shipments in May saw a 74% decrease year-on-year. This followed a halving of shipments in April compared to March.

According to the report, due to a lack of clarity regarding Beijing’s export restrictions, customs are delaying several shipments of lower-performance rare earth magnets. 

Source: Reuters

These magnets are typically used in consumer electronics and appliances.

On Thursday, China’s commerce ministry announced the approval of “a certain number” of rare earth export licence applications, without providing further details.

In recent weeks, Chinese rare earth magnet producers JL MAG Rare-Earth and Innuovo Technology have announced securing export licenses for various clients. 

This comes as rare earth magnet exports for January-May saw a 14.5% decline from the previous year, totaling 19,132 tons, the lowest for this period since 2021.

The post China’s rare earth magnet exports tumble amid new restrictions and classification chaos appeared first on Invezz

Circle stock price surged to a new record high after the US Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS) and the ongoing stablecoin demand. CRCL shares closed at $200, up by over 300% from its listing price.

Cashing in on stablecoin growth

Circle stock price has surged after going public as investors focused on the GENIUS Act, which passed in the Senate this week. There are rising odds that the bill will pass in the House of Representatives since some Senate Democrats supported it.

The GENIUS Act is a bullish catalyst for Circle stock for two main reasons. First, it brings in the regulatory clarity that the stablecoin market needs without adding any undue costs. For example, the bill mandates issuers to hold liquid government bonds and do regular reporting, which Circle does already. 

Second, the GENIUS Act may make USDC gain market share if Tether refuses to comply as it did with MiCA. Such a move will force companies like Coinbase to convert user holdings from USDT to USDC as some European exchanges have done. 

Circle Payments Network is a key catalyst

The other bullish catalyst for the Circle stock price is the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a business that seeks to disrupt the financial services industry. 

CPN partners with banks and payment service companies to offer them a cheaper and faster approach to send money internationally.

Presently, these companies use SWIFT technology, a process that is expensive and slow. That’s because it uses correspondent banks and other processes. As a result, it is normal for a transaction to take a few hours or days to complete. 

The Circle Payment Network avoids this lengthy process by using USDC. In it, a company executes a payment using the stablecoin, which is then completed within a few seconds. USDC transactions cost cents, making them ideal for all parties.

The CPN business model also has a chance to disrupt traditional companies like Visa and Mastercard that make billions of dollars a year in payment transaction costs. 

Indeed, it has been reported that companies like Walmart and Amazon are considering leveraging stablecoins to cut these costs. One way for them to do that would be to partner with Circle, which already runs a popular stablecoin.

Risks for buying Circle stock

There are risks for buying Circle stock at this level. First, there are signs that USDC holdings are not growing. CoinGecko data shows that the stablecoin has a market cap of $61.45 billion, lower than the April high of $62 billion. 

Circle needs its USD supply to continue growing for it to supercharge its growth. Higher stablecoin growth means that it will generate higher investment income. 

The other risk is that the company is now highly valued since its market cap stands at over $33 billion, 54% of its total stablecoin assets. 

Further, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will execute two interest rate cuts this year and more in 2024 and 2025. Lower rates will impact its revenue and profitability growth. 

Circle stock price will also face risks of a pullback when investors start to take profits. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has already dumped shares worth millions of dollars, and more investors will follow. 

The other top risk is that the company’s lockup expiry will happen in the next few months. Historically, recently IPOed companies crash or experience volatility ahead of expiry, letting insiders dump their shares. 

Finally, the ongoing momentum will likely ease now that the Circle stock price has become highly overbought. 

The post Circle stock price forecast: opportunities and risks appeared first on Invezz

The Nikkei 225 Index remained in a tight range on Friday after Japan reported a strong consumer inflation data. The index, which tracks the biggest Japanese companies, traded at ¥38,445 on Friday, a few points below this week’s high of ¥38,885 and up by 25% from its lowest point in April. 

Japan inflation jumps, complicating BoJ path

The Nikkei 225 Index wavered after Japan’s statistics agency published strong consumer inflation data. This report revealed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) dropped from 3.6% in April to 3.5% in May. It rose from 0.1% to 0.3% on a month-on-month basis.

Core inflation, excluding highly volatile food and energy products, rose from 3.5% in April to a two-year high of 3.7%. 

These numbers came a few days after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered its interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. Minutes released today, June 20, showed that some policymakers preferred rate hikes, while others saw the need to pause these rates for some time because of Donald Trump’s tariffs

The minutes also revealed that officials slashed their GDP estimate because of these tariffs, which have affected the important automobile sector. The sector is also contending with the fast-growing Chinese industry, where firms like BYD and Li Auto are firing on all cylinders. 

The Nikkei 225 Index wavered because of the uncertainty of the central bank. Ideally, a sign that the bank will cut interest rates would be bullish for the blue-chip index, and vice versa.

Japan bond yields retreated after the latest inflation data. The 10-year yield dropped to 1.418%, down from this month’s high of 1.588%. Similarly, the five-year yield dropped to 0.947% from 1.06% earlier this month. 

The Japanese yen also remained largely unchanged at 145.3%, up from the year-to-date low of 139.95%.

The Middle East crisis continues

The Nikkei 225 Index also wavered as the markets watched the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. Iran and Israel continued to launch missile attacks at each other, with Iran attack hitting an Israeli hospital.

The most notable development is that Donald Trump gave the two sides period to do diplomacy before intervening. Analysts believe that Trump will come ultimately decide to launch missile attacks targeting Iran’s nuclear program in the coming weeks. 

The other risk is that Israel has signaled that it will target Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s Supreme Leader. Such a move will likely escalate the crisis, affecting global stock indices like the Nikkei 225.

Nikkei 225 Index technical analysis

Nikkei 225 Index chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the Nikkei 225 Index bottomed at ¥30,800 in April and then rebounded to a high of ¥38,880 this week. It has remained above the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). 

The index is also slightly above the key support level at ¥38,253, its highest point on March 26. However, it has also formed a rising wedge pattern, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have formed a bearish divergence. 

Therefore, the index will likely have a bearish breakdown in the coming days now that the two lines are nearing their confluence. This confluence may see it dropping to ¥37,000 in the coming weeks.

The post Nikkei 225 Index pattern points to a crash as Japan inflation rises appeared first on Invezz

SAP share price has crashed in the past few weeks, erasing some of the gains it made after its first-quarter results. It plunged to a low of €247 on Thursday, its lowest level since April 28. It has dropped by over 9.35% from its highest point in May. 

SAP business is doing well as demand rises

SAP is a top technology company that provides software to thousands of clients globally. It is the biggest player in the enterprise resource planning industry, and it competes with firms like Oracle, Microsoft, Infor, and Epicor. 

The company has also increased its service offerings to include solutions like business applications in areas like human capital management and supply chain management. 

SAP is also a top provider of cloud computing services that its US peers like Amazon and Microsoft dominate. It is also involved in areas like data management and analytics. 

SAP is widely used by companies in all industries, with some of its top clients being Delta Air Lines, Cintas, Shiseido, Siemens, Apple, and Walmart.

The most recent financial results showed that SAP business is firing on all cylinders as demand for its ERP, cloud, and artificial intelligence solutions jump. 

Its cloud computing backlog jumped by 28% to €18.2 billion, while its cloud revenue soared by 27%. Its cloud revenue is growing faster than its bigger competitors like Microsoft and Amazon, which experienced 20% and 17% growth rates. 

SAP’s quarterly revenue jumped by 11% to €9 billion, beating the average revenue estimate of €8.8 billion. Its cloud revenue rose by 27% to almost €5 billion, while its cloud ERP Suite’s revenue jumped by 34% to €4.2 billion. 

Business growth to continue

SAP’s management believes that the company’s business will continue doing well this year. For one, there are signs that its business is tariff or recession-resistant because it offers essential services and 86% of its revenue comes from recurring services.

SAP’s cloud revenue will be between €21.6 and €21.9 billion this year, while its cloud and software revenue will be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion. 

Most importantly, the company’s free cash flow will almost double from last year’s €4.2 billion to €8 billion. This growth will accelerate after the company’s restructuring efforts that cost it about €3 billion euros. 

SAP has always been conservative when issuing its guidance, meaning that it will likely do better than estimates. 

These numbers will help it to continue its share repurchases and dividends. There is a likelihood that the company will announce a new share repurchase program this year. 

It announced a €5 billion program in 2023, which is expected to end in the second half of the year. The company may announce a similar program for the coming years as its free cash flow rising. 

SAP share price analysis

SAP stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the SAP stock price peaked at €273 in May, mirroring the performance of most companies. It has now pulled back by almost 10% and moved to a low of €247, its lowest point since April 29.

The stock has moved below the 50-day moving average. Worse, there are signs that it has formed a double-top pattern around the €273 resistance level and a neckline at €208. 

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, with the immediate target being at €232, its lowest level on March 14. A drop below that level will invalidate the inverse head and shoulders pattern, and point to more downside, potentially to €208, the lowest swing in April. A move above the double-top at €273 will invalidate the bearish view.

The post Here’s why SAP share price may crash to €208 soon appeared first on Invezz

The Rheinmetall share price is firing on all cylinders this year. It has jumped by 180%, beating the DAX Index and other defense companies like Northrop Grumman, RTX, and Lockheed Martin.

This year’s RHM stock price surge is a continuation of what has been going on in the past five years. It has jumped by over 2,500% in this period, transforming it into the fifth-biggest defense contractor after RTX, Honeywell, Safran, and Lockheed Martin.

Rheinmetall has passed other well-known companies like BAE Systems, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris Technologies. 

The Russian-Ukrainian war was the catalyst

Rheinmetall’s stock price surge accelerated in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to a surge in Western military equipment. 

This war has led to a surged since then. The company made over €5.6 billion in annual revenue in 2021, €6.4 billion in 2022, and €7.1 billion and €9.7 billion in the next two financial years.

Demand for Rheinmetall’s products will continue rising as geopolitical events are expected to worsen. For one, the crisis in the Middle East continues, presenting a risk that it will become a long war. 

A prolonged war will benefit defense contractors as it will lead to more demand for bombs and munitions. At the same time, the war in Ukraine is still going on, with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin struggling to reach a deal.

Most importantly, European countries see Donald Trump as an unreliable ally and are now boosting their spending. Earlier this year, the German parliament voted to add spending by about €500 billion over a 12-year period. Rheinmetall will be a top beneficiary to this. Europe plans to spend over €800 billion by 2030 on defence.

Growth gains momentum

The strong demand has turned Rheinmetall from a traditional industrial company into a high-growth company. 

The most recent numbers showed that the company’s revenue rose by 46% to €2.3 billion, while its operating result soared by 49% to €199 million. 

Most importantly, the company’s backlog has surged to over €62 billion or $71 billion, a 56% increase. It expects that its backlog will jump to over €80 billion this year. 

This growth is largely coming from the vehicle systems, whose revenue jumped by 93% to €952 million. Its weapon and ammunition revenue rose by 66% to €599 million, while the electronic solutions rose by 49%. 

Rheinmetall believes that its revenue will grow by between 25% and 30% this year, while its operating margin will be about 15.5%.

The main concern that Rheinmetall has is that its revenue and profitability growth has made it highly expensive. Going by its guidance, a 30% annual revenue increase will be €12.6 billion this year. 

At the same time, the company’s operating margin will be 15.5%, meaning that its operating profit will be about €1.9 billion. Using this metric, it means that the company trades at a price-to-operating profit ratio of 40, which is highly expensive. Its current P/E ratio of 92 is also higher than other high-margin and high-growth companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft.

Rheinmetall share price analysis

RHM stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the RHM share price has pulled back from the year-to-date high of €1,943 to the current €1,720. It has moved below the lower side of the rising wedge pattern, a popular bearish reversal sign. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Rheinmetall share price will continue dropping to €1,500 as investors start to take profits. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the 50-day moving average at €1,632. 

The post Up 180% in 2025, can the Rheinmetall share price climb further? appeared first on Invezz

Allianz share price has pulled back from its highest point this year, aligning with most German companies. After plunging to a low of €274.8 in April following Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the stock jumped by 34%, reaching a high of €368. It has now retreated to €335 as investors watch the crisis in the Middle East. 

Alianz business is growing and facing challenges

Allianz Holdings is the third publicly-listed insurance company globally after UnitedHealth Holdings and Progressive, with a market capitalization of about $150 billion.

The company operates across continents, providing diverse insurance solutions across its segments like Allianz Life, Allianz Partners, and others It is also a large asset manager through its PIMCO business, which has over $1.5 trillion in assets.

Allianz’s business is doing well as insurance costs jump in most countries. However, the company is also facing challenges as the cost to service claims soar. Also, it is seeing higher climate-related risks in key countries. 

The most recent results showed that Allianz’s total business volume rose by 11% in the first quarter to €54 billion. This growth was mostly because of its Life and Health segment, whose business grew by 18% to €25 billion. It was followed by property and casualty, which grew by 7% to €27 billion, and asset management, which grew by 3% to €2 billion. 

Read more: Up 180% in 2025, can the Rheinmetall share price climb further?

Allianz’s profitability also continued, with the net income rising by 1.5% to €2.5 billion. The growth was impacted by its restructuring provisions as it sells its Indian joint venture. 

The property and casualty recorded an operating profit of €2.17 billion, a 5% increase, and the best quarter ever. Life and Health’s operating profit rose by 8% to €1.42 billion.

Its asset management, which includes PIMCO and AllianzGI had a higher operating profit of €811 million, a 5% increase even as its assets under management assets dipped slightly to €1.9 billion. 

Allianz’s management believes that the company has more room to grow despite the rising challenges. It expects that its full-year operating profit will be about €16 billion, and going by its past performance, there is a likelihood that it will do better than estimates. 

Allianz is also buying back substantial shares, a move intended to boost its earnings per share. It is buying shares worth €2 billion this year. The company also has a high dividend yield of about 4.50%.

Allianz share price analysis

Allianz stock chart | Source: TradingView

Technical analysis can help one identify potential targets of a company’s stock. In this case, the daily chart shows that the Allianz stock price peaked at €368 in May and then pulled back to the current €337, its lowest level since April 22. 

The stock has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed downwards. 

On the positive side, Allianz stock price remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. Therefore, the stock’s outlook is neutral for now. A break below the 200 average at €311 will confirm the bearish outlook. On the other hand, a move above the key resistance level at €368 will point to more upside, potentially to €400.

Read more: Here’s why SAP share price may crash to €208 soon

The post Allianz share price analysis: is it a buy, sell, or hold? appeared first on Invezz

SAP share price has crashed in the past few weeks, erasing some of the gains it made after its first-quarter results. It plunged to a low of €247 on Thursday, its lowest level since April 28. It has dropped by over 9.35% from its highest point in May. 

SAP business is doing well as demand rises

SAP is a top technology company that provides software to thousands of clients globally. It is the biggest player in the enterprise resource planning industry, and it competes with firms like Oracle, Microsoft, Infor, and Epicor. 

The company has also increased its service offerings to include solutions like business applications in areas like human capital management and supply chain management. 

SAP is also a top provider of cloud computing services that its US peers like Amazon and Microsoft dominate. It is also involved in areas like data management and analytics. 

SAP is widely used by companies in all industries, with some of its top clients being Delta Air Lines, Cintas, Shiseido, Siemens, Apple, and Walmart.

The most recent financial results showed that SAP business is firing on all cylinders as demand for its ERP, cloud, and artificial intelligence solutions jump. 

Its cloud computing backlog jumped by 28% to €18.2 billion, while its cloud revenue soared by 27%. Its cloud revenue is growing faster than its bigger competitors like Microsoft and Amazon, which experienced 20% and 17% growth rates. 

SAP’s quarterly revenue jumped by 11% to €9 billion, beating the average revenue estimate of €8.8 billion. Its cloud revenue rose by 27% to almost €5 billion, while its cloud ERP Suite’s revenue jumped by 34% to €4.2 billion. 

Business growth to continue

SAP’s management believes that the company’s business will continue doing well this year. For one, there are signs that its business is tariff or recession-resistant because it offers essential services and 86% of its revenue comes from recurring services.

SAP’s cloud revenue will be between €21.6 and €21.9 billion this year, while its cloud and software revenue will be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion. 

Most importantly, the company’s free cash flow will almost double from last year’s €4.2 billion to €8 billion. This growth will accelerate after the company’s restructuring efforts that cost it about €3 billion euros. 

SAP has always been conservative when issuing its guidance, meaning that it will likely do better than estimates. 

These numbers will help it to continue its share repurchases and dividends. There is a likelihood that the company will announce a new share repurchase program this year. 

It announced a €5 billion program in 2023, which is expected to end in the second half of the year. The company may announce a similar program for the coming years as its free cash flow rising. 

SAP share price analysis

SAP stock chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the SAP stock price peaked at €273 in May, mirroring the performance of most companies. It has now pulled back by almost 10% and moved to a low of €247, its lowest point since April 29.

The stock has moved below the 50-day moving average. Worse, there are signs that it has formed a double-top pattern around the €273 resistance level and a neckline at €208. 

Therefore, the stock will likely continue falling, with the immediate target being at €232, its lowest level on March 14. A drop below that level will invalidate the inverse head and shoulders pattern, and point to more downside, potentially to €208, the lowest swing in April. A move above the double-top at €273 will invalidate the bearish view.

The post Here’s why SAP share price may crash to €208 soon appeared first on Invezz

Shares of Pop Mart International Group Ltd. fell sharply in Hong Kong trading after a commentary by Chinese state media raised concerns about blind-box toys and trading cards, and called for tighter regulations to protect minors.

The warning, though indirect, sparked investor anxiety over the future of Pop Mart’s flagship Labubu dolls, which are typically sold through blind-box formats.

The commentary, published on the 19th page of the People’s Daily, did not mention Pop Mart by name but criticized aspects of the business model that could lead to excessive purchases among children.

Legal experts cited in the article argued for more refined oversight, pointing to addictive tendencies among young consumers.

Pop Mart’s stock, which had surged nearly 170% this year amid the growing Labubu craze, dropped as much as 6.2% on Friday.

It had already fallen 5.3% the previous day. Shares of Bloks Group Ltd., another maker of collectible toys, also tumbled as much as 7.7%.

State media commentary impacts sentiment as regulatory crackdown fears resurface

The development evokes memories of earlier regulatory crackdowns in China’s tech and gaming sectors, where government interventions over concerns of addiction among minors led to sweeping industry changes.

A few years ago, Beijing introduced time limits for minors playing video games and curbed unsupervised spending, moves that significantly impacted gaming giants.

In 2023, China’s market watchdog had already introduced basic guidelines for blind-box sales, including a ban on sales to children under eight.

The latest commentary is seen as part of an evolving regulatory landscape, though not yet a formal directive.

“The commentary has weighed on investor sentiment, flashing some overheating signs in its business,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at UOB Kay Hian Hong Kong Ltd., referring to Pop Mart.

“Still, it’s a mild reminder as it didn’t come directly from a government official.”

Analysts see limited risk due to adult consumer focus, international growth

Despite this week’s decline, Pop Mart remains the top performer on the MSCI China Index, buoyed by strong consumer enthusiasm for its toys.

Wall Street analysts have continued to raise their price targets, pointing to the rising value and reach of the company’s intellectual property.

Analysts believe the company’s focus on adult consumers and international growth could cushion any regulatory headwinds in the domestic market.

“Concerns about the impact of tighter regulation on Pop Mart may be overdone,” said Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang.

“Given that the company’s customer base demographic is largely 18 and above, the downside seems limited,” he said.

Zhang also added that a key driver of the company’s growth is likely to come from its overseas markets, so any regulatory clampdown in its domestic market might not pose a significant challenge on its overall growth.

Pop Mart’s 2025 net profit seen doubling due to strong global Labubu demand

The popularity of Labubu — a quirky, toothy monster doll — continues to grow, with a life-sized figure recently fetching over $150,000 at a Chinese auction house.

Last year, when the Labubu frenzy took off, Pop Mart’s shares rocketed 340%.

The company’s profits nearly tripled, and revenue more than doubled.

For 2025, Citi analysts expect net profit to grow 124% and revenue to rise 95%, citing growing global demand and strong intellectual property development.

Citi analysts noted the doll’s expanding appeal in the US and Europe could drive further earnings growth.

In a recent report, Citi raised Pop Mart’s target price to HK$308 from HK$162 and maintained its buy rating.

The bank praised Pop Mart’s ability to build original characters and scale them globally, calling its approach to IP development and product rollout “unparalleled.”

The toymaker, which currently boasts a market value of around $40 billion, expects overseas sales to more than double this year, with overall revenue growth projected to exceed 50%.

For now, despite regulatory murmurs at home, Pop Mart’s global ambitions and adult-focused fan base appear to offer some insulation — and continued momentum — for one of China’s hottest consumer stocks.

The post Pop Mart shares fall on China’s blind-box alert, but analysts see global growth ahead appeared first on Invezz

European stock markets started Friday on a positive note, attempting to shake off some of the week’s losses as investors found some relief in easing bond yields.

However, this tentative rebound is set against a backdrop of deeply concerning UK economic data and the ever-present shadow of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

In a reversal of the trend seen in recent days, most sectors began the day in the green.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was up 0.5% in early trading, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.75% and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.33%.

Even the travel sector, often sensitive to global uncertainty, was up 1.2%, while oil and gas shares eased by 0.6%.

This initial buying interest comes after a difficult week where markets were rattled by a slew of central bank actions—including a rate cut in Switzerland and rate holds from the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve—and persistent fears over the Israel-Iran conflict and the possibility of US involvement.

UK economic woes

The improved market sentiment, however, is being tested by a fresh batch of troubling economic news from the United Kingdom.

British shoppers pulled back on spending sharply in May, with retail sales falling 2.7% on the month, according to the Office for National Statistics.

This was the steepest drop since December 2023 and significantly worse than the 0.5% decline economists polled by Reuters had expected.

The disappointing figures break a four-month run of consecutive rises in retail sales, which had been the best streak since 2020.

Retailers had previously attributed stronger sales in April, which saw 1.3% growth, to a spell of sunny weather.

The May downturn suggests a more fundamental weakness in consumer spending.

Phil Monkhouse, UK country manager at Ebury, pointed to several contributing factors, including “higher inflation, energy bill increases and the tighter UK labor market,” all of which have contributed to lower spending.

He also noted that retailers are grappling with the impact of recent tax hikes.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains challenging. “With the Middle East tensions at breaking point, US tariff uncertainty still high and the Bank of England holding off interest rate cuts, the outlook for consumer demand looks rocky,” Monkhouse said.

This data follows figures published last week which showed the UK economy had already contracted in April.

Alongside the weak retail sales, the UK’s public finances also showed signs of strain.

The Office for National Statistics reported this morning that public borrowing hit £17.7 billion ($23.8 billion) in May, which is £700 million higher than the previous year.

The budget deficit, defined as the borrowing required to fund day-to-day public sector activities, came in at £12.8 billion. While this was down £1.7 billion compared to May 2024, the overall debt picture is worsening.

Public sector net debt (excluding banks) was provisionally estimated at 96.4% of gross domestic product, representing a 0.5 percentage point increase year-on-year.

Economists have warned that a combination of weak growth, higher borrowing costs, and recent reversals on some government spending policies means the UK may be facing more tax hikes later this year if Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is to meet her self-imposed “fiscal rules.”

Joe Nellis, economic advisor at accountancy firm MHA, cautioned in emailed comments, “If current trends persist, total borrowing for the 2025–26 fiscal year could approach or exceed £150 billion — well above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Spring forecast of £137 billion.”

He added, “With limited scope for major tax rises or deep spending cuts in the short term, the Chancellor’s options to meet her fiscal rules are narrowing, especially the target to reduce debt as a share of GDP over the medium term.”

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Allianz share price has pulled back from its highest point this year, aligning with most German companies. After plunging to a low of €274.8 in April following Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the stock jumped by 34%, reaching a high of €368. It has now retreated to €335 as investors watch the crisis in the Middle East. 

Alianz business is growing and facing challenges

Allianz Holdings is the third publicly-listed insurance company globally after UnitedHealth Holdings and Progressive, with a market capitalization of about $150 billion.

The company operates across continents, providing diverse insurance solutions across its segments like Allianz Life, Allianz Partners, and others It is also a large asset manager through its PIMCO business, which has over $1.5 trillion in assets.

Allianz’s business is doing well as insurance costs jump in most countries. However, the company is also facing challenges as the cost to service claims soar. Also, it is seeing higher climate-related risks in key countries. 

The most recent results showed that Allianz’s total business volume rose by 11% in the first quarter to €54 billion. This growth was mostly because of its Life and Health segment, whose business grew by 18% to €25 billion. It was followed by property and casualty, which grew by 7% to €27 billion, and asset management, which grew by 3% to €2 billion. 

Read more: Up 180% in 2025, can the Rheinmetall share price climb further?

Allianz’s profitability also continued, with the net income rising by 1.5% to €2.5 billion. The growth was impacted by its restructuring provisions as it sells its Indian joint venture. 

The property and casualty recorded an operating profit of €2.17 billion, a 5% increase, and the best quarter ever. Life and Health’s operating profit rose by 8% to €1.42 billion.

Its asset management, which includes PIMCO and AllianzGI had a higher operating profit of €811 million, a 5% increase even as its assets under management assets dipped slightly to €1.9 billion. 

Allianz’s management believes that the company has more room to grow despite the rising challenges. It expects that its full-year operating profit will be about €16 billion, and going by its past performance, there is a likelihood that it will do better than estimates. 

Allianz is also buying back substantial shares, a move intended to boost its earnings per share. It is buying shares worth €2 billion this year. The company also has a high dividend yield of about 4.50%.

Allianz share price analysis

Allianz stock chart | Source: TradingView

Technical analysis can help one identify potential targets of a company’s stock. In this case, the daily chart shows that the Allianz stock price peaked at €368 in May and then pulled back to the current €337, its lowest level since April 22. 

The stock has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed downwards. 

On the positive side, Allianz stock price remains above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. Therefore, the stock’s outlook is neutral for now. A break below the 200 average at €311 will confirm the bearish outlook. On the other hand, a move above the key resistance level at €368 will point to more upside, potentially to €400.

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